VTRA 2015 Case S : KM – 668 and VTRA 2015 Calibration Case ...dorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VTRA 2015...
Transcript of VTRA 2015 Case S : KM – 668 and VTRA 2015 Calibration Case ...dorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VTRA 2015...
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 Case S : KM – 668 and VTRA 2015 Calibration Case Comparison
Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW)
June 1st - 2nd, 2016
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 2
VTRA 2015 Study Area
GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
6/7/2016 3
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
VTRA ’15 S : DP - 668 Update
Container and Bulk Carrier Routes Bunker Routes Case R or S
Case Q
+ Update on Arrival Process
CASE S VTRA 2010 OLD Case S VTRA 2015 Updated Case SContainer Ships 67 368
Bulk Carriers 348 300Subtotal 415 668
Bunkering Support 40 60Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 5 GW-VCU : DRAFT
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days)
VTRA 2010 – What If FV Scheduled Arrival Pattern Model
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 668: 1.14 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
NOT SELECTED
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 6 GW-VCU : DRAFT
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Complete Random Arrival Pattern Model
NOT SELECTED
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 668: 1.17 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 7 GW-VCU : DRAFT
5% 5% 5%
90% 90% 90%
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Scheduled Random Arrival Pattern Model
SELECTED
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 348: 1.15 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison
Oil Spill Size Category: ALL SPILL SIZES
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 9 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss)
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 10 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
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VTRA '15: Call. Case 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.Grou+Coll.+All.Oil Loss: 100% of Cal. Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 11 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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S: DP - 668 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.Grou+Coll+All.Oil Loss: 115% of Cal. Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 12 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.8%
0.9%
3.6%
5.1%
6.8%
9.1%
10.4%
10.5%
12.5%
13.1%
13.3%
13.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.9%
4.1%
6.5%
7.6%
10.7%
9.3%
9.6%
11.9%
12.9%
26.2%
13.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.89SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.68
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.05Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.98Georgia Str. : +0.5% | x 1.13
WSJF : +1.4% | x 1.28Islands Trt : +0.8% | x 1.11
ESJF : +1.6% | x 1.18Rosario : -1.0% | x 0.90
Saddlebag : -0.9% | x 0.91Guemes : -0.6% | x 0.95
PS South : -0.1% | x 0.99Haro/Boun. : +12.9% | x 1.97
PS North : -0.1% | x 1.00
% Base Case Oil (Coll.+Grou.) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Oil (Coll. + Grou. + All.) Loss - ALL_FV
S: DP - 668 : 115% ( +14.6% | x 1.15) VTRA '15: Call. Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 13 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
1.0%
1.2%
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
3.6%
3.6%
7.0%
7.7%
10.3%
13.0%
45.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
2.3%
3.1%
4.1%
3.9%
9.6%
7.7%
10.4%
13.4%
45.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ATBA : 0.0% | x 1.00Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.99
Buoy J : +0.1% | x 1.30Saddlebag : -0.1% | x 0.88SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.11
Rosario : -0.2% | x 0.87Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.02
ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.05WSJF : +0.6% | x 1.16
Georgia Str. : +0.2% | x 1.07Haro/Boun. : +2.6% | x 1.37
PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00Guemes : +0.1% | x 1.01
Islands Trt : +0.3% | x 1.03PS South : +0.1% | x 1.00
% Base Case Accident Freq. (AF) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Accident (C+G+A) Frequency - ALL_FV
S: DP - 668 : 104% ( +4.0% | x 1.04) VTRA '15: Call. Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 14 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 m3 or more
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 16 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case ≈ 0.47% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 5,746 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,942 Metric. Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3 Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 17 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.43% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 5,586 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,804 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
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0.0003%
0.0005%
0.0006%
0.0008%
0.0026%
0.0061%
0.0195%
0.0239%
0.0310%
0.0327%
0.0345%
0.0491%
0.0734%
0.0919%
0.0991%
0.0005%
0.0008%
0.0006%
0.0010%
0.0035%
0.0054%
0.0200%
0.0292%
0.0308%
0.0307%
0.0402%
0.0511%
0.0581%
0.0830%
0.080%
0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12%
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.43SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.67
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.92Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.25
Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.35Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.88
Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.03WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.22
PS North : 0.0% | x 0.99PS South : 0.0% | x 0.94
Haro/Boun. : +0.0% | x 1.17ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.04
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.79Rosario : 0.0% | x 0.90Guemes : 0.0% | x 0.81
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
S: DP - 668 : 0.43% ( -0.03% | x 0.93) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 0.47%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 18 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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5,699
5,527
11,112
5,491
4,002
6,328
6,918
6,354
5,134
5,702
4,835
6,203
5,901
6,221
5,089
5,834
5,027
9,577
5,355
4,396
5,425
6,813
6,112
5,070
5,655
4,349
6,225
6,462
6,323
5,746
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Sar/Skagit : +135.5 | x 1.02SJ Islands : -500.1 | x 0.91
ATBA : -1535.5 | x 0.86Tac. South : -+135.7 | x 0.98Islands Trt : +393.4 | x 1.10
Buoy J : -902.7 | x 0.86Georgia Str. : -104.3 | x 0.98
WSJF : -242.0 | x 0.96PS North : -64.4 | x 0.99PS South : -47.4 | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : -485.8 | x 0.90ESJF : +21.9 | x 1.00
Saddlebag : +560.9 | x 1.10Rosario : +102.1 | x 1.02Guemes : +656.6 | x 1.13
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
S: DP - 668 : 5886 m3 ( +140.3 | x 1.02) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 5746 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 19 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 m3 - 2500 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 21 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.50% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,628 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,400 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 22 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.53% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,618 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,391 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
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0.0003%
0.0002%
0.0003%
0.0011%
0.0074%
0.0038%
0.0180%
0.0194%
0.0536%
0.0351%
0.0658%
0.0479%
0.1232%
0.0240%
0.1032%
0.0003%
0.0003%
0.0004%
0.0011%
0.0091%
0.0054%
0.0247%
0.0211%
0.0537%
0.0353%
0.0784%
0.0483%
0.1205%
0.0235%
0.1061%
0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14%
Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.99SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.33
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.11Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.96
Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.22Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.42
Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.37WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.08
PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00PS South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +0.0% | x 1.19ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.98Rosario : 0.0% | x 0.98
Guemes : +0.0% | x 1.03
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
S: DP - 668 : 0.53% ( +0.02% | x 1.05) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 0.50%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 23 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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1,224
1,559
1,632
1,193
1,464
1,648
1,568
1,614
1,406
1,447
1,435
1,456
1,820
1,760
1,777
1,232
1,667
1,613
1,197
1,490
1,685
1,549
1,600
1,412
1,484
1,450
1,494
1,830
1,821
1,697
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Sar/Skagit : +7.4 | x 1.01SJ Islands : +108.1 | x 1.07
ATBA : -19.1 | x 0.99Tac. South : +4.6 | x 1.00
Islands Trt : +25.6 | x 1.02Buoy J : +37.8 | x 1.02
Georgia Str. : -19.5 | x 0.99WSJF : -13.9 | x 0.99
PS North : +6.9 | x 1.00PS South : +37.1 | x 1.03
Haro/Boun. : +14.2 | x 1.01ESJF : +37.5 | x 1.03
Saddlebag : +9.2 | x 1.01Rosario : +61.2 | x 1.03Guemes : -79.8 | x 0.96
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident - ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
S: DP - 668 : 1618 m3 ( -9.4 | x 0.99) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 1628 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 24 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1 m3 - 1000 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
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Average of ≈ 42 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 265 barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 26 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 53.1% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
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Average of ≈ 53 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 334 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 27 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 55.0% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
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0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
2.3%
11.1%
0.2%
2.6%
1.8%
6.0%
29.4%
7.4%
2.8%
0.6%
1.0%
3.4%
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
2.4%
11.4%
0.2%
2.7%
2.1%
5.9%
29.6%
10.0%
3.1%
0.6%
0.8%
3.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.97SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.17
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.02
Islands Trt : +0.3% | x 1.03Buoy J : +0.1% | x 1.27
Georgia Str. : +0.1% | x 1.05WSJF : +0.3% | x 1.18
PS North : 0.0% | x 0.99PS South : +0.2% | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +2.6% | x 1.36ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.09
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.93Rosario : -0.2% | x 0.81Guemes : 0.0% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
S: DP - 668 : 55.0% ( +1.9% | x 1.04) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 53.1%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 28 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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79
17
66
19
37
75
31
89
108
18
82
81
80
72
37
81
25
77
19
40
80
36
107
109
18
139
104
87
63
39
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Sar/Skagit : +1.1 | x 1.01SJ Islands : +8.6 | x 1.51
ATBA : +11.5 | x 1.18Tac. South : -+0.4 | x 0.98Islands Trt : +2.6 | x 1.07
Buoy J : +5.3 | x 1.07Georgia Str. : +5.5 | x 1.18
WSJF : +18.2 | x 1.20PS North : +0.5 | x 1.01PS South : -0.1 | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +57.2 | x 1.70ESJF : +22.8 | x 1.28
Saddlebag : +6.9 | x 1.09Rosario : -9.2 | x 0.87
Guemes : +1.3 | x 1.04
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
S: DP - 668 : 53 m3 ( +11.1 | x 1.27) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 42 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 29 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 0 m3 - 1 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 31 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.5 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 32 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3 Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 33 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.5 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 34 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case R: KM - 348
Draft
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8%
39%
1%
62%
100%
15%
79%
79%
96%
100%
95%
72%
36%
47%
99%
7%
43%
1%
63%
100%
19%
81%
83%
96%
100%
98%
74%
32%
43%
99%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
Sar/Skagit : -0.1% | x 0.99SJ Islands : +3.3% | x 1.08
ATBA : 0.0% | x 1.00Tac. South : +0.7% | x 1.01
Islands Trt : +0.1% | x 1.00Buoy J : +4.1% | x 1.27
Georgia Str. : +2.1% | x 1.03WSJF : +4.6% | x 1.06
PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00PS South : +0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +3.3% | x 1.04ESJF : +1.8% | x 1.03
Saddlebag : -3.6% | x 0.90Rosario : -4.4% | x 0.91
Guemes : +0.1% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
S: DP - 668 : 100.0% ( +0.0% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 100.0%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 35 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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0.7
2.4
0.2
1.0
0.5
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.3
4.4
2.8
9.9
26.8
11.0
2.7
3.6
0.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.9
0.3
3.9
1.6
7.3
26.2
12.2
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Sar/Skagit : +1.9 | x 3.60SJ Islands : +1.2 | x 1.51
ATBA : -0.2 | x 0.14Tac. South : +0.1 | x 1.11
Islands Trt : +0.5 | x 2.16Buoy J : -0.4 | x 0.76
Georgia Str. : +0.1 | x 1.09WSJF : -0.1 | x 0.83
PS North : 0.0 | x 0.99PS South : +0.0 | x 1.03
Haro/Boun. : -0.6 | x 0.88ESJF : -1.2 | x 0.58
Saddlebag : -2.6 | x 0.74Rosario : -0.6 | x 0.98
Guemes : +1.1 | x 1.10
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
S: DP - 668 : 2.5 gallons ( +0.1 | x 1.03) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 2.4 gallons
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 36 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: All Spill Sizes
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
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OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 ANY SIZE
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 39.8% 12.2% 47.4% 0.6% 100.0%
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% 0.01% 1.7% 98.2% 100.0%
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 5,745 1,627 42.0 0.01 1.5
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.05% 0.05% 7.3% 98.7% 98.8%
Probability of at least one accident in 10 years by spill size 0.47% 0.50% 53.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.16% 1.25% 85.0% 100.0% 100.0%
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 ANY SIZE
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 38.1% ( -1.7%| x0.96 ) 12.7% ( +0.5%| x1.04 ) 63.0% ( +15.7%| x1.33 ) 0.6% ( +0.04%| x1.07 ) 114.5% ( +14.5%| x1.15 )
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% ( 0.00%| x0.93 ) 0.01% ( +0.00%| x1.05 ) 1.8% ( +0.1%| x1.05 ) 102.1% ( +3.9%| x1.04 ) 104.0% ( +4.0%| x1.04 )
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 5886 ( +141.2 | x1.02 ) 1618 ( -9.3 | x0.99 ) 53.0 ( +11.1 | x1.26 ) 0.01 ( +0.0 | x1.03 ) 1.7 ( +0.2 | x1.10 )
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.04% ( 0.00%| x0.93 ) 0.05% ( +0.00%| x1.05 ) 7.7% ( +0.4%| x1.05 ) 98.9% ( +0.2%| x1.00 ) 99.0% ( +0.2%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 10 years by spill size 0.43% ( -0.03%| x0.93 ) 0.53% ( +0.02%| x1.05 ) 55.1% ( +1.9%| x1.03 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.08% ( -0.08%| x0.93 ) 1.31% ( +0.06%| x1.05 ) 86.5% ( +1.4%| x1.02 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 )
VTRA
'15
CAL.
CAS
EVT
RA '1
5 CA
SE S
: DP
-668
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Summary Relative Risk and Absolute Risk Comparison
Draft