1

National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service

VTECVTECCurrent Status and Future PlansCurrent Status and Future Plans

Jason TuellJason TuellOffice of Science and TechnologyOffice of Science and Technology

Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur KrausMark Tew, Herb White and Arthur KrausOffice of Climate, Water and Weather ServicesOffice of Climate, Water and Weather Services

2

OverviewOverview

• Summary of VTEC activities in 2004Summary of VTEC activities in 2004• OT&E ResultsOT&E Results• VTEC ImplementationVTEC Implementation• Plans for 2005Plans for 2005• GHG Overview GHG Overview • Key MilestonesKey Milestones• Partner participationPartner participation• 10-1703 changes10-1703 changes• SummarySummary

3

VTEC in 2004VTEC in 2004Summary of ActivitiesSummary of Activities

• Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational testingtesting• WARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warningsWARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warnings• WWA – long fuse watches and warningsWWA – long fuse watches and warnings• RiverPro – hydrological warningsRiverPro – hydrological warnings

• Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to allow policy and software to be refinedallow policy and software to be refined• GHG, GHG, GGraphical raphical HHazard azard GGeneration, software not ready for eneration, software not ready for

OT&E scheduleOT&E schedule• Delayed productsDelayed products

– Offshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecastOffshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecast– Open Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecastOpen Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecast

• Conducted OT&E 30 August – 21 OctoberConducted OT&E 30 August – 21 October

4

VTEC OT&EVTEC OT&E

• OT&E conducted 30 August - 21 OctoberOT&E conducted 30 August - 21 October

• OT&E objectives:OT&E objectives:• Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of

the products were 95the products were 95±±5% error free5% error free

• Demonstrate the VTEC concept of operationsDemonstrate the VTEC concept of operations

• Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications was sufficient to meet the objectives defined abovewas sufficient to meet the objectives defined above

• Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to insure accurate and consistent productsinsure accurate and consistent products

• Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and processed by NWS customers and parthersprocessed by NWS customers and parthers

5

OT&E ResultsOT&E ResultsVTEC Product StatisticsVTEC Product Statistics

Service areaService area Total Total

EvaluatedEvaluated

PassedPassed

# - (%)# - (%)

FailedFailed

# - (%)# - (%)HydroHydro 745745 437437

(59%)(59%)

308308

(41%)(41%)

MarineMarine 199199 164164

(82%)(82%)

3535

(18%)(18%)

SevereSevere 733733 657657

(90%)(90%)

7676

(10%)(10%)

FireFire 5454 3131

(57%)(57%)

2222

(43%)(43%)

PublicPublic 469469 358358

(76%)(76%)

111111

(24%)(24%)

TotalTotal 22002200 16471647

(75%)(75%)

553553

(25%)(25%)

6

Long Fuse WarningsLong Fuse WarningsWWAWWA

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Week1

Week2

Week3

Week4

Week5

Week6

Week7

NPWWSWCFWRFWMA.S

7

OT&E ResultsOT&E ResultsWarnGen VTEC Product StatisticsWarnGen VTEC Product Statistics

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7

SVR

TOR

SVS

SMW

MWS(MA.W)

8

OT&E ResultsOT&E ResultsHydrology ProductsHydrology Products

• Issues identified with Hydro products early in OT&EIssues identified with Hydro products early in OT&E• ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and

significance codes issued by different applicationssignificance codes issued by different applications– By product of three different warning applications and lack of a centralized By product of three different warning applications and lack of a centralized

ETN databaseETN database– Multiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same productsMultiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same products

• New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN continuity problemcontinuity problem

• Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be used to generate which productused to generate which product• Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by

WARNGEN vice WWA WARNGEN vice WWA

• Regions and partners concurRegions and partners concur

9

OT&E ResultsOT&E ResultsWWAWWA

• Products produced by the WWA application Products produced by the WWA application did not meet the acceptance criteriadid not meet the acceptance criteria

• Forecaster workload and useability of the Forecaster workload and useability of the WWA application an issueWWA application an issue• Offices with WWA experience generally more Offices with WWA experience generally more

successfulsuccessful• WWA paradigm not a good fit with digital servicesWWA paradigm not a good fit with digital services• Errors likely in products that are infrequently Errors likely in products that are infrequently

issues due to complexity of software and lack of issues due to complexity of software and lack of familiarity familiarity

• Decision not to use WWA to implement VTECDecision not to use WWA to implement VTEC

10

Evaluation CriteriaEvaluation CriteriaAssessmentAssessment

ObjectivesObjectives CriteriaCriteria EvaluationEvaluation

Training Training Ave of 3 or better on training Ave of 3 or better on training surveyssurveys

VTEC – 3.6VTEC – 3.6

WBC – no surveys; training was WBC – no surveys; training was completed before the plan was approved. completed before the plan was approved. Sense is training was adequate, tool is Sense is training was adequate, tool is the issuethe issue

VTEC Code Compliance with 10-VTEC Code Compliance with 10-1701 and 10-17031701 and 10-1703

VTEC format, Product Code and VTEC format, Product Code and MND header are 95% accurateMND header are 95% accurate

WWA - VTEC strings matched the WWA - VTEC strings matched the specification, but ETNs were not correct; specification, but ETNs were not correct; MND header issues need to be further MND header issues need to be further analyzed for WWA. Initial problems with analyzed for WWA. Initial problems with automatic setting of X, E, and/or T codes automatic setting of X, E, and/or T codes were fixed during OT&E via ATAN, sites were fixed during OT&E via ATAN, sites forgot to undue the workaround. All forgot to undue the workaround. All products need to remove illegal chars.products need to remove illegal chars.

WarnGen VTEC Code complied WarnGen VTEC Code complied

Product internal consistencyProduct internal consistency Products 85% accurateProducts 85% accurate WWA – ETNs were problematic. WWA – ETNs were problematic. Corrections incorrectly coded in WMO Corrections incorrectly coded in WMO header due to limitation. header due to limitation.

11

OT&E Test Review GroupOT&E Test Review GroupRecommendationRecommendation

• Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February (SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS)(SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS)

• Statistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeksStatistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeks

• Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8 Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8 FebruaryFebruary

• Statistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not passStatistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not pass

• OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x” OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x”

• Do not go operational with WBC on 8 FebruaryDo not go operational with WBC on 8 February

• Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%)Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%)

• WWA software not stableWWA software not stable

• Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products (WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February(WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February

• Descope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capabilityDescope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capability

12

OT&E DecisionOT&E Decision

• Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warningsImplement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings• VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance

criteriacriteria

• Delay VTEC implementation in other products until Delay VTEC implementation in other products until software was improved, deficiencies resolvedsoftware was improved, deficiencies resolved

• Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse watches and warningswatches and warnings

• Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on remaining products that will have VTECremaining products that will have VTEC

13

VTEC ImplementationVTEC Implementation

• 18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse 18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse convective watches and warningsconvective watches and warnings• WOU Initial, WOU Initial, • SVR - Severe Thunderstorm WarningSVR - Severe Thunderstorm Warning• TOR- Tornado warningTOR- Tornado warning• SVS - Severe follow up statementSVS - Severe follow up statement• SMW - Special Marine WarningSMW - Special Marine Warning• MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only)MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only)

• VTEC introduced in products listed above during VTEC introduced in products listed above during January in “.x” (Operational products with January in “.x” (Operational products with experimental VTEC line) modeexperimental VTEC line) mode

• All short fuse convective products to be converted to All short fuse convective products to be converted to “.o” mode (operational products with operational “.o” mode (operational products with operational VTEC line) on 8 FebVTEC line) on 8 Feb

14

Plans for 2005Plans for 2005

• Implement VTEC in short fuse convective Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings on 8 Febwarnings on 8 Feb

• Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch and warning products by end of hurricane and warning products by end of hurricane season CY05season CY05• Replace the WWA software with GHGReplace the WWA software with GHG

• Implement VTEC in the hydrology productsImplement VTEC in the hydrology products

15

GHG OverviewGHG Overview

• GHG = Graphical Hazards GenerationGHG = Graphical Hazards Generation• Utilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazardUtilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazard

• Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO forecastersforecasters

• Add capability to produce VTEC coding and Add capability to produce VTEC coding and format long-fused watch, warning, format long-fused watch, warning, advisory ,statement and some forecast products.advisory ,statement and some forecast products.

• Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at 20 CR offices20 CR offices

16

GHG GHG

17

VTEC 2005VTEC 2005 Test Plan SchematicTest Plan Schematic

Preliminary DT&E

GHG Risk Reduction &WBC Static

Testing

FSL Development

GHG DT&E GHG IOT&E

WARNGENDevelopment

RiverProDevelopment

Partner Notification

AWIPS OB5.1

WBC Static Re-Test VTEC OT&E

18

VTEC VTEC Testing and TrainingTesting and Training

• Repeat one OT&E for all VTEC productsRepeat one OT&E for all VTEC products• Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro) Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro)

Products for testing with GHG Products.Products for testing with GHG Products.

• Training Training • Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of

operationoperation

• Provide GHG trainingProvide GHG training

19

GHGGHGWatch By CountyWatch By County

• WBC Program Implementation will use GHGWBC Program Implementation will use GHG• Process is much simpler and can be validated Process is much simpler and can be validated

• Work within reasonable SPC timeframe for testingWork within reasonable SPC timeframe for testing

• WCN becomes official with VTEC WCN becomes official with VTEC • May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC) May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC)

date date

20

• Basic GHG Training DeliveredBasic GHG Training Delivered 12/15/0412/15/04

• VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ)VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ) beginning 12/20/04beginning 12/20/04

• Issue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sitesIssue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sites 1/26/051/26/05

• IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter)IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter) beginning 2/02/05 beginning 2/02/05

• WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites)WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites) 2/07/05 – 2/18/052/07/05 – 2/18/05

• Fast Service Backup Capability TestingFast Service Backup Capability Testing 1/31/05 – 2/18/051/31/05 – 2/18/05

• Initial GHG Development Completed MilestoneInitial GHG Development Completed Milestone 2/18/052/18/05

• GHG VTEC/WBC DT&EGHG VTEC/WBC DT&E 3/07/05 – 3/11/053/07/05 – 3/11/05

• GHG VTEC/WBC IOT&EGHG VTEC/WBC IOT&E 3/14/05 – 3/25/053/14/05 – 3/25/05

• GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites)GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites) 3/28/05 – 5/07/053/28/05 – 5/07/05

• WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression)WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression) 4/11/05 – 4/21/054/11/05 – 4/21/05

• GHG Training Administered (remaining sites)GHG Training Administered (remaining sites) 4/25/05 – 9/23/054/25/05 – 9/23/05

• National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X)National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X) 5/18/05 – 6/30/055/18/05 – 6/30/05

• Conduct WBC Proficiency ExercisesConduct WBC Proficiency Exercises 5/23/05 – 7/30/055/23/05 – 7/30/05

• VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro)VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro) 5/24/05 – 7/15/055/24/05 – 7/15/05

• Corp. Decision for partner NotificationCorp. Decision for partner Notification 7/08/057/08/05

• OT&E Report Completed OT&E Report Completed 7/29/057/29/05

• Issue PNS for National Implementation Issue PNS for National Implementation 7/11/057/11/05

• Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key) Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key) 8/30/05 – 10/13/058/30/05 – 10/13/05

• VTEC Turn KeyVTEC Turn Key 11/1/0511/1/05

GHG PlanGHG PlanKey Milestones - UpdateKey Milestones - Update

21

Partner ParticipationPartner Participation

• Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive changeschanges

• Will need the participation of the partners Will need the participation of the partners during upcoming test phasesduring upcoming test phases• Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk

reduction exercisesreduction exercises

• IOT&E product evalautionIOT&E product evalaution

• OT&E productr evaluationOT&E productr evaluation

22

Changes to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC DirectiveChanges to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC Directive

• P-VTEC codingP-VTEC coding

• Same ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given eventSame ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given event

• EXT action code will be available for Flash Flood WarningEXT action code will be available for Flash Flood Warning

• VTEC in Routine Marine productsVTEC in Routine Marine products

• New Phenomena CodesNew Phenomena Codes

• FAFA – Areal Flood, – Areal Flood, SWSW – Small Craft for Seas, – Small Craft for Seas, BWBW – Brisk Wind – Brisk Wind

• Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV) Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV)

• Experimental in 2005 for Atlantic BasinExperimental in 2005 for Atlantic Basin

• H-VTEC codingH-VTEC coding

• Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli)Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli)

• Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes addedSix new Immediate Cause (ic) codes added

• Other Changes and additionsOther Changes and additions

• Valid VTEC event list added as new AppendixValid VTEC event list added as new Appendix

23

SummarySummary

• VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse convective warnings 8 Feb 2005convective warnings 8 Feb 2005

• OT&E successful - determined what would OT&E successful - determined what would and wouldn’t work in an operational settingand wouldn’t work in an operational setting

• GHG software development accelerated to GHG software development accelerated to replace WWAreplace WWA

• Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late spring 2005spring 2005

• VTEC implementation in remaining products VTEC implementation in remaining products by end of hurricane season 2005by end of hurricane season 2005

24

National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service

Back Up SlidesBack Up Slides

25

GHG Testing RoadmapGHG Testing Roadmap

• Preliminary GHG DT&EPreliminary GHG DT&E (12/20/04 – 1/28/05) (12/20/04 – 1/28/05)• Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS)Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS)

• GHG VTEC Limited Site TestGHG VTEC Limited Site Test (begin 2/02/05) (begin 2/02/05)• Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES)Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES)

• Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table)Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table)

• Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction)Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction)

• WBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPCWBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPC

• GHG DT&EGHG DT&E (3/7 – 3/11/05) (3/7 – 3/11/05)• Test all product formatters and software after development periodTest all product formatters and software after development period

• GHG IOT&EGHG IOT&E (3/14 – 3/25/05) (3/14 – 3/25/05)• Use realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facilityUse realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facility

• Identify and categorize issuesIdentify and categorize issues

• WBC Static and Service Backup Regression TestingWBC Static and Service Backup Regression Testing (4/11 – 4/21/05) (4/11 – 4/21/05) • Re-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgradesRe-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgrades

• GHG and Hydro VTEC OT&EGHG and Hydro VTEC OT&E (5/24 – 7/15/05) (5/24 – 7/15/05)• Additional OT&E sites added to initial groupAdditional OT&E sites added to initial group

• Corp Decision for notification messageCorp Decision for notification message (7/08/05) (7/08/05)