VRIC MONITOR | April 2019 · View this email in your browser April 2019 The VRIC Monitor is a...
Transcript of VRIC MONITOR | April 2019 · View this email in your browser April 2019 The VRIC Monitor is a...
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April 2019
The VRIC Monitor is a oneofakind, monthly report from SFS tracking extra
regional influence in Latin America. VRIC stands for Venezuela, Russia, Iran,China where Venezuela represents the Bolivarian Revolution and the broaderBolivarian Alliance or ALBA. Likewise, Iran represents the Iranian Revolution and
a growing presence of Middle Eastern actors in Latin America, namely its chief
proxy, Hezbollah. The monitor is comprised of open source information selected
by SFS analysts and fellows. This is not a complete list of media reports on VRIC
presence in Latin America, but a snapshot of opensource media highlighting the
major areas of VRIC influence.
OVERVIEW
As international pressure mounts against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, its extraregional allies Russia, Iran, and China continue offering various forms of aid: Russiais providing military support, China is protecting critical infrastructure, and Iran isvoicing support for the Maduro regime through staterun media. In March, Russiaand China have supplied Venezuela with military technicians and more humanitarianaid. With additional U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's state mining agency, Minerven,and its chief executive, the Maduro regime is increasingly relying on VRIC support tofind alternative sources of revenue and financial channels to evade sanctions.
As Venezuela continues to dominate headlines worldwide, the VRIC nations areoperating throughout the region. Russia and China prompt a nuclear energy race inLatin America, with China engaging in nuclear talks with Argentina and Russia'scollaborating on Bolivia's nuclear program. Whereas, Brazil starts to edge out Chinato work closer with the U.S. on the heels of a historic visit to Washington, D.C. onMarch 1719 by President Jair Bolsonaro.
Venezuela experienced two blackouts last month, exacerbating the worseninghumanitarian crisis within the country and devastating an already failed economy.Maduro accused the U.S. of launching cyber attacks that caused the blackouts, withChina echoing this narrative, further positioning Venezuela as a proxy conflictbetween the U.S. and the VRIC nations.
The U.S. issued additional sanctions in early April and Citigroup sold of over $1billion of Venezuela’s gold, adding to the economic pressure toward a transition tofree and fair elections in the country. U.S. officials continue to sanction and highlightcriminality within the Maduro regime.The Department of Treasury sanctioned theVenezuela state mining agency, further strangling the revenue sources of theMaduro regime. On March 8, the Department of Justice charged the VenezuelanMinister of Industry and National Production Tareck El Aissami with violations to his2017 sanctions under the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act along withseveral other senior Venezuelan officials.
Within the ALBA bloc, Bolivia is solidifying its extraregional alliances; Nicaragua isnegotiating with the opposition; and India is potentially rising as a strategic ally.Bolivian President Evo Morales visited Greece in March, promoting a solution to theVenezuela crisis with Greece’s support. Bolivia continues to engage in nuclear talkswith Russia. However, a Petrobras fine on Bolivia’s state oil company for failing todeliver LNG shows that Bolivia’s energy production may not be as successful astheir state reporting implies.
The creation of PROSUR to replace UNASUR has affected the ALBA, with itsSecretary General David Choquehuanca denouncing the action, claiming that thenew organization puts regional integration at risk. Lastly, India is increasingly activein the region. India's increased engagement with Bolivia, signing 8 MOUs includingculture, space, and medicine, as well as a contract to begin mining lithium in theUyuni flats, marks India as a potential rising VRIC ally.
VENEZUELA AID TRACKER
United States $76 million dollars Argentina Help unit Canada $39 million dollars Chile 17 tons of food & medical supplies China 65 tons of medicine & supplies EU $65 million euros Germany €5 million euros Iran Unspecified pledge & medical aid Italy €2 million euros New Zealand $500,000 dollars Palestine Surgical team
Russia 335 tons of food & medical supplies Spain €2 million euros Sweden $7 million dollars Taiwan $500,000 dollars Turkey Pledged, but none specified UAE Dh10 million UK £6.5 million pounds
Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports that on his official visit toDamascus, the capital of Syria, the Foreign Minister of the Bolivarian Republicof Venezuela, Jorge Arreaza, held a meeting with the President of the SyrianArab Republic, Bashar AlAssad. Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairson 04APRVenezuela’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza arrived in Beirut on April 3 for aseries of meetings with Lebanese officials. Arreaza met with Lebanon’spresident Michel Aoun and his counterpart Gebran Bassil. The envoy ofembattled Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was expected to also meet withHezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Lebanese prime minister Sa’adHariri before traveling onward to Syria, according to Beirutbased Naharnet. Times of Israel on 03APRVenezuela's Supreme Court has asked for opposition leader Juan Guaidó tobe stripped of his parliamentary immunity, a move that could lead to his jailing.The progovernment Constituent Assembly is expected to back the request.The court ruling said Mr Guaidó should be prosecuted for violating a travelban when he toured several Latin American countries a few weeks ago. TheSupreme Court has already banned him from holding office for a period of 15years and arrested his righthand man on terrorism charges. BBC on 02APR.Ugandan police have returned a gold consignment worth $149 million to thecountry’s biggest gold refinery after the attorney general dismissed allegationsthat it had smuggled the metal from sanctionshit Venezuela. The gold waspart of a 7.4tonne shipment valued at around $300 million that African GoldRefinery (AGR) imported in two batches 3.8 and 3.6 tonnes from SouthAmerica on March 2 and March 4, respectively. Reuters on 28MARThe United States imposed sanctions on Minerven, the Venezuelan statemining company. The sanctions also target the boss of the mining company,Adrián Perdomo, who is accused of illicit operations supporting the Madurogovernment. The sanctions came following the discovery of suspicious gold inUganda that came from Venezuela. El Economista on 19MAR (content inSpanish)Venezuelan Minister and former Vice President Tareck Zaidan El AissamiMaddah charged with violations of the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin DesignationAct. El Aissami and Samark Jose Lopez Bello violated U.S. Sanctions inconnection with their use of private jets, including the February 23, 2019return flight by El Aissami from Russia to Venezuela. U.S. Department ofJustice on 8MARCitigroup Inc. plans to sell several tons of Venezuelan gold it received ascollateral from the Maduro regime to settle the country’s $1.6 billion loan afterthe deadline to repurchase the precious metal expired earlier this month,reports said. Venezuela was due to repay $1.1 billion of the loan March 11,according to the terms of the 2015 deal with Citigroup’s Citibank, four sourcesfamiliar with the matter told Reuters. The remainder of the loan is due nextyear. Fox News on 21MAR
THE ALBA
Bolivia will provide India with access to its lithium carbonate and also facilitatejoint ventures for lithium battery/cell production plants in India. Thepartnership will provide a major fillip to India’s ambitious emobility plans. PVMagazine on 02APRWe are happy to have Bolivia as a partner in the International Solar Allianceand welcome the signing of the framework agreement establishing the bond.In addition, we have signed eight MOUs in the fields of culture, Visa waiverarrangement for diplomats, the exchange between diplomatic academies,mining, space, traditional medicine, the establishment of Centre of Excellencein IT and BiOceanic Railway project," said Indian President Kovind. ANI on30MARBrazilian staterun oil company Petrobras has fined Bolivia’s state oilcompany YPFB after it failed to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumessecured under a contract through the BoliviaBrazil pipeline during 2018, aPetrobras executive said. Hellenic Shipping News on 28MARALBA Secretary General David Choquehuanca condemned the abolitionUNASUR and the creation of PROSUR, citing that the decision puts theintegration of the region in crisis. Kandire on 22MAROpposition delegates to talks on resolving Nicaragua's political standoff saidthey will not return to the table until the government shows "signs of goodwill"on demands such as the full release of hundreds considered politicalprisoners. ABC News on 19MARGreece backed calls by Bolivia's leftwing President Evo Morales for anegotiated settlement to the severe political and financial crisis in Venezuela,in what marks a different approach to that pursued by key European allies.NBC News on 15MAR
Russia’s activity in March has been highlighted by an increasing military presence inVenezuela with additional military personnel and military equipment includingaircraft, missile launchers, and radar in the event of U.S. intervention. At themoment, Russia seems to be Venezuela’s central propaganda link in the VRICalliance Russia and China vetoed the U.S. resolution on Venezuela in the UnitedNations Security Council and Russian and Iranian officials have spoken aboutcollaboration regarding Venezuela. Currently, the cohesive, unified action by allthree of the extraregional VRIC nations is highlighted in their media campaigns thatperpetuate proMaduro and antiU.S. messaging.
Russia continues to engage elsewhere in the region, as well. Along with supplyingVenezuela with military assistance, Russia has sent new military armaments toCuba. Russia also continues its nuclear engagement, with nuclear energy talksscheduled for Bolivian President Evo Morales’s visit to Moscow in July.
In a threepage letter addressed to the President of the House ofRepresentatives Alejandro Chacón, the Russian Embassy warned that "anytype of incursion" into Venezuela will be interpreted by Moscow as a "threat tointernational peace and security." El Heraldo on 02APR (content inSpanish)Russian state media reports that Russia opened a helicopter flight trainingcenter in Venezuela to assist Venezuelan pilots in learning how to fly Russianmade Mifamily helicopters, said Rosoboronexport, Russia's state armsexporter. Sputnik on 29MARRussian state media reports that representatives of Russia and Cuba signeda memorandum on cooperation aimed at expanding cooperation in thecommunication sector. The document contains the main items of cooperationplanned in the field of communication technologies and security systems,including on cyberspace. TASS on 26MARCuba acquired a $42 million loan from Russia to purchase new armaments,demonstrating Russia’s intention to maintain its presence in the strategic zoneof the Caribbean. Periódico Cubano on 25MAR (content in Spanish)Bolivia's President Evo Morales will travel to Moscow in July in part to seekcloser cooperation between Gazprom and his country's state owned naturalgas industry, the nation's top revenue earner. Bolivia's Foreign Minister DiegoPary said Bolivia is working on agreements for "cooperation with Gazpromand investment into the Center for Nuclear Research" ahead of Morales' visitin July, Tass reported. UPI on 21MARHighlevel U.S.Russian talks on how to defuse Venezuela’s crisis ended withthe two sides still at odds over the legitimacy of Nicolás Maduro. Russia hassaid Maduro remains the country’s only legitimate leader whereas the UnitedStates and many other Western countries back Juan Guaidó, head of theoppositioncontrolled National Assembly who invoked a constitutionalprovision in January to assume an interim presidency. Reuters on 19MARPakistani state media reports that the fact the highlevel RussianVenezuelanintergovernmental commission will convene in Moscow in midApril provesthat Russia pursues the policy of strategic partnership with the Latin Americancountry, Russian Ambassador in Caracas Vladimir Zaemskiy said in aninterview with Sputnik. Urdu Point on 18MARGazprombank, Russia’s third biggest lender by assets, has sold its indirectstake in the Petrozamora joint venture in Venezuela, a source at the banksaid. Reuters on 14MARSources from the Russian embassy in Venezuela informed Russian statenews agency Sputnik that two planes with 99 soldiers and 35 tons ofhumanitarian aid arrived in Venezuela on March 24. Diario Las Americason 24MAR (content in Spanish)
In March, Iran voiced solidarity with Maduro’s regime and spoke with officials inMoscow to “maintain peace” in Venezuela. But, whereas China and Russia’s supporthas been broadcast publicly, Iran continues to extend its support in the shadows,such as a new, weekly "commercial" flight by the Iranian private airline Mahan Air.Elsewhere in Latin America, Iran and its allies focus on cultural engagement,particularly with Mexico and Brazil. Iran and Mexico celebrated cultural ties inMarch and also discussed strengthening parliamentary ties.
Iran’s allies in the Middle East actively engage in the region. The Foreign Minister ofthe United Arab Emirates H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Brazilin March to see cultural landmarks. The UAE also made a $50 million investment inclean energy projects in the Caribbean, marking a more direct economicengagement from the Middle East in Latin America. Azerbaijan and Paraguay haveincreased ties by abolishing their visa regime, facilitating easier travel between thetwo nations.
Turkey and Qatar, which were featured in last month’s monitor, continue to engagewith the region. Venezuela and Turkey have only grown closer following the illicitgold trade that was exposed this year the Venezuelan Foreign Minister visitedTurkey on April 1 to discuss regional and international issues. Bolivian President EvoMorales also visited Turkey to stress increased cooperation between the twocountries. Moreover, Qatar’s Minister of Culture visited both Panama and ElSalvador in March.
An Iranian delegation landed in Venezuela on a plane belonging to MahanAir to discuss launching direct flights between the two countries within thecoming months, Venezuela’s foreign minister said, as Tehran voices supportfor Nicolás Maduro against the opposition backed by most Western countries. Reuters on 08APRCuban state media reports that the Week of Iranian Cinema will conclude onSunday, April 7, after the screening of five films made between 2003 and2014, including Che (the name of the letter ch in the Persian alphabet), by thefilmmaker Ebrahim Hatamikia.- Prensa Latina on 1APR Osvaldo Raffo, who proved that prosecutor Alberto Nisman was deliberatelykilled in 2015 after exposing an Argentine effort to cover up Iran's role in AMIAbombing, kills himself. Raffo's analysis hurt then-President Kirchner, who hasbeen indicted.- Israel Hayom on 27MARThe UAE has made a $50 million (Dh183m) investment into clean energyprojects in the Caribbean. The plan is to build electric vehicle stations andsolar power plants in the largest project of its kind in the region. - TheNational on 19MARIranian state media reports Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarifand his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, have expressed their readinessto work towards the settlement of the Venezuelan crisis through political
approaches. In a phone call initiated by the Iranian side, Zarif and Lavrovdiscussed the latest developments unfolding in Venezuela, which has beengrappling with a political crisis since January, Xinhua quoted the RussianForeign Ministry as saying in a brief statement. - Press TV on 19MAR An Iranian couple entered Argentina on Tuesday, March 12 with forged Israelipassports, La Nación and Clarin reported over the weekend. The two Iraniannationals were arrested on Saturday, March 16 in Buenos Aires. - Haaretz on18MARIran state media reports, in a meeting between Iranian Ambassador to MexicoMohammad-Taghi Hosseini and Mexico’s President of the Senate of theRepublic Martí Batres Guadarram, the two sides discussed ways to reinforcecommon parliamentary ties. - Mehr News on 17MARH.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs andInternational Cooperation, has visited the Cathedral of Brasilia in Brazil, whichis one of the most important landmarks in Brasilia. - Emirates News Agencyon 17MAR
AZERBAIJANAzerbaijan state news stated that Azerbaijan and Paraguay signed anagreement "On the mutual elimination of visa requirements for persons withdiplomatic and official passports,” Trend reports. The agreement was reachedduring a meeting of Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov with hisParaguayan counterpart Alberto Castiglioni as part of his first visit toParaguay. Azer News on 24MAR
HEZBOLLAH
A Miami court sentenced Ali Nasreeddine Kassir, a Miamibased Lebanesebusinessman and suspected Hezbollah facilitator, who pleaded guilty topassport fraud and conspiring to commit money laundering totaling over $70million. Kassir’s conviction opens a string of interconnected cases implicatingalleged Hezbollah financiers, Nader Mohamad Farhat and Mahmoud AliBarakat, and their U.S.based business counterparts. The Hill on 02APRThe man said to be Hezbollah’s top financier Nader Mohamad Farhat facesextradition to the United States from Paraguay. Billions of dirty dollars flowthrough the South American country, according to American officials, andsome of that ends up in the hands of the Iranianbacked terror organization. Clarion Project on 13MAR
QATAR
Progovernment Qatari press states the Minister of Culture and Sports H ESalah bin Ghanem Al Ali met with the Ambassador of the Republic of Panamato the State of Qatar, Oreste Del Rio Sandoval. During the meeting, theydiscussed aspects of cooperation between both countries in cultural andsports fields and ways to boost and develop them. The Peninsula Qatar on02APRProgovernment Qatari press states Minister of Culture and Sports H E Salahbin Ghanem Al Ali met with the Ambassador of the Republic of El Salvador tothe State of Qatar, Alfredo Arturo Samayoa Molina. During the meeting, theydiscussed aspects of cooperation between the two countries in cultural andsports fields and means of developing them. The Peninsula on 26MAR
TURKEY
Progovernment Turkish press reports in an exclusive interview Moralesstates, "Turkish Airlines is a worldrenowned brand. There is a commonexpectation and desire for Turkish Airlines' direct flights to Bolivia." As thegeographical distance is considered an obstacle that impedes Turkish andBolivian businesspeople from traveling frequently, the move might contributeto developing economic ties. Daily Sabah on 10APREvo Morales became the first Bolivian president to visit Turkey, wherethe leader met with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdoganhad just returned from a visit to Russia, where he met with Vladimir Putin. Thethree nations have been united recently over their foreign policy approachesto the ongoing crisis in Venezuela. EFE on 09APRTurkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says Turkey is giving VenezuelanPresident Nicolas Maduro its continued support and intends to deepencooperation with Venezuela "in all fields" despite U.S. pressure. Cavusogluspoke during a joint news conference in Turkey with Venezuela's ForeignAffairs Minister Jorge Arreaza. Fox News on 01APR
China continues to be a strong ally to Venezuela voicing its support for Maduro,assisting with power restoration, and purchasing oil. China offered material supportwith humanitarian aid and military supplies delivered by 120 soldiers on Sunday,March 31. However, Venezuela does not distract China from its larger goals in LatinAmerica. China continues to secure multiple critical infrastructure projects andpursue nuclear energy engagement in the region while working to strengthen itsrelationships with U.S. allies such as Panama, Argentina, and Chile. Since PresidentJair Bolsonaro took office, Brazil has begun to edge China out, but China is stillcultivating its previously secured projects in the country.
North Korea also engaged with the VRIC this month, as Cuba’s state news agencyPrensa Latina announced that the company may open a Pyongyang bureau laterthis year.
On Sunday, March 31, 120 Chinese soldiers arrived on the island of Margaritato deliver humanitarian aid and military supplies. Israel Noticias on 03APR.China used its United Nations Security Council veto in February to knockdown a resolution condemning the fraudulent May 2018 Venezuelanpresidential election and calling for new elections and internationalhumanitarian aid for the country. The resolution was backed by France, the
U.K. and the U.S. Russia also voted to block the resolution, but it might nothave done so without China’s cover. The Wall Street Journal on 18MARA delegation from China will visit Argentina this month to discuss theconstruction of a nuclear power plant, signaling possible progress in a dealthat could increase Beijing’s deepening influence in Argentina. Accordingly,the “technical team” from China would meet local suppliers about the longstalled nuclear power plant project, reportedly worth up to $8 billion. MercoPress on 16MARRecently, China gave Panama a feasibility study for the construction of a trainline between the Panamanian capital and the border with Costa Rica, a workthat illustrates the expansion of Beijing in Latin America. Costa Rican Newson 16MARChina's government is interested in supporting Brazil's Paraná state in itsambitious project to build a bioceanic freight rail corridor between the port ofParanaguá and the port of Antofagasta in northern Chile, passing throughParaguay and Argentina. BNAmericas on 15MARChilean lithium miner SQM received environmental approval to expand itslithium carbonate production plant, the local environmental regulator toldReuters, marking a milestone as the company seeks to boost output of thecoveted ultralight battery metal. The $400 million plant expansion, oncecomplete, would allow the Chinesebacked SQM to eventually produce asmuch as 180,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year from its Atacama salt flatoperations in Chile. NASDAQ on 14MARChina offered to help Venezuela restore its power grid, after Nicolás Maduroaccused President Donald Trump of cyber “sabotage” that plunged the SouthAmerican country into its worst blackout on record. Reuters on 13MARChina and Russia have continued to defy the United States on Venezuela,vowing to assist the cashstrapped and crisisstricken government that hasbeen targeted by President Donald Trump. Newsweek on 13MARThe recent arrival of 200 electric buses made by Chinese manufacturers BYDand Yutong in Santiago has highlighted a dramatic shift in China’s relationshipwith Latin America. Officials in Santiago say the BYD and Yutong deals —which will give Chile’s capital the secondlargest fleet of electric buses in theworld, for an undisclosed price — are just the beginning of a rampup ofChinese investment in Latin America. OZY on 7MAR
NORTH KOREANorth Korean state media reports that Prensa Latina may formally set upPyongyang bureau this year. 62yearold Benito Joaquín Milanés has workedas Cuba’s state news agency Prensa Latina’s first fulltime “special envoy” inPyongyang. Since then, he’s been filing regular stories from the North Koreancapital, sometimes several times a day, enjoying a degree of access nottypically afforded to members of the international press. NK News on 21MAR
VRIC Monitor(March 2019)
Commentary from SFS
Click here to read last month's VRICMonitor (March 2019)
Humire on "From Syria to
Venezuela" at the Daniel
Morgan Graduate School of
National Security
SFS Executive Director JosephHumire presented "From Syria toVenezuela: From Crisis to Conflict" atthe Daniel Morgan Graduate School ofNational Security on Friday, March 22.
To watch the full video coverage forthis event, follow the link to theDaniel Morgan Graduate School.
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