Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections
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Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections A Graphical Story Sören Holmberg Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg December 2008
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Sören Holmberg Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg December 2008. Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections. A Graphical Story. US Presidential Election 2008 Preliminary Outcome. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections
Voting Behaviorin
US Presidential Elections
A Graphical Story
Sören HolmbergDepartment of Political ScienceUniversity of GothenburgDecember 2008
US Presidential Election 2008Preliminary Outcome
Source: Wikipedia
Barack Obama (Democrat) 52,8%
John McCain (Republican) 45,8%
Ralph Nader (Independent) 0,5%
Bob Barr (Libertarian) 0,4%
Others 0,5%
100%
Estimated Turn-Out: 130 million voters; eligible voters 213 million; turn-out per cent 61.0%
Turn-Out in US Presidential Elections
61,060,354,2
51,758,1
52,855,254,252,262,3 60,2
63,8 62,8 62,556,2 54,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1948 1952 1956 1960 194 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Source: Stanley and Niemi: Vital Statistics in American Politics. The turn-out figures represent the percentage of the eligible electorate that cast votes in presidential elections. The preliminary result for 2008 is based on a estimate of 130 million casted votes among 213 million eligible voters.
%
Regional Votingper cent Democrats
59
51
42
47 4947
5557 56
454243
46
414136
44
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
North East
South
DifferenceNorth-South -3 -2 +11 +8 +6 +9 +14 +14 +14
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Genderper cent Democrats
55
50 45 44
4945
54 5451
49
4443434141
3736
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Women
Men
DifferenceWomen-Men ±0 +9 +7 +8 +4 +11 +11 +7 +6
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Ageper cent Democrats
66
51
4440 47
43
53
48
54
4646
51
48
5049
3941
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Under 30
60+
DifferenceYoung-Old +4 +3 +1 -2 -7 +5 -3 +8 +20
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Under 30
60+
Ethnic Groupper cent Democrats
95
83 8589 86
83 84
9088
67
53
63
72
6169
6156
76
434143433940
3536
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Blacks
Hispanic
DifferenceBlack-White +36 +49 +54 +46 +44 +41 +47 +47 +52
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
White
Jews 64 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 78
Asians - - - - - - - 56 62
Religionper cent Democrats
5454
4245
4744
5349
4745
404041
3638
3235
44
3432
3436
3333
27
31
41
2421
18
2623
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Catholics
Protestants
Jews 64 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 78
Weekly ChurchGoers 36 - 39 39 43
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
White Protestants
White Born Again Christians
Marital Statusper cent Democrats
65
47
53 5157 57 58
4742
44444042
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Unmarried
Married
Difference +9 +11 +11 +13 +13 +16 +18 Unmarried-Married
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Gays/Lesbiansper cent Democrats
707266
71
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Incomeper cent Democrats
73
58 59 5763
60575453
45 49
4143
38
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Under $15 000
DifferenceLow-High Income +21 +14 +22 +24
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
$100 000 and over
$15 000 -$29 000
Educationper cent Democrats
58
48
5052 52
5552
474851
43
49
3943 51
464548
414238
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Post GraduateHigh School
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Some College
US Party Identification
3234
37363537
4744
45
52
45
41 40 41
28
242725
2827232323
2525
302928
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Democrat
Republican
Independent 23 23 23 23 30 34 37 34 34 36 38 35 40 39
Source: ANES; 1952 - 2004
%
NEP 2004Dem 37Rep 37Ind 26
Edison 2008 Dem 39 Rep 32 Ind 29
US IdeologicalSelf-Identification
252426
2526
2426
272626272627
22242322
31
28
2826
27 2725 26
34
37
343233
353536
31
36
31
35
30
35353533
31
3433
303029
2829
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
93
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Liberal
Conservative
Moderate 36 38 38 37 37 37 40 39 40 39 37 39 37 35 37 34 39 35 35 36 36 38 38 37 38 Moderate
Source: DKs 1 – 6%; General Social Survey, NORC;
%
NEP 2004Cons 34Mod 45Lib 21
Edison 2008 Cons 34 Mod 44 Lib 22
Liberal
Conservative
US: Independents
Democratic Leaners
Republican Leaners
Independents plus Leaners
Source: ANES
%
3940
35
3836
343437
34
30
23232323
1715
1414121111121110
9
66
1012
1312121211101010
9
6
78
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Pure 6 9 10 8 11 13 15 13 11 11 12 9 12 10IndependentsIndependentsplus 23 23 23 23 30 34 37 34 34 36 38 35 40 39 Leaners
Ideologyper cent Democrats
89
71
60
70
81
68
7880
85
201517
2018191723
29
605453
57
475047
42
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Liberals
Conservatives
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Moderates
DifferenceLib – Cons +42 +37 +53 +62 +50 +58 +63 +70 +69
Party Preferenceper cent Democrats
89
77
67
75
8277
8487 89
5249
454338
433530
43
9681310
86890
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Democrat
Republican
Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008
%
Independent
DifferenceDem – Rep +68 +59 +69 +74 +67 +71 +79 +83 +80
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