Voters and Voter Voters and Voter BehaviorBehaviorUnit 2 – Chaps. 13/14

Political Participation

Refers to the ways in which Americans get involved in politics◦We do very poorly◦Voter turnout very bad

1) People under 182) Convicted felons (10 states)3) Clinically insane4) Non-citizens

Who doesn’t get to vote?Who doesn’t get to vote?

Why vote?Civic duty – to be a good citizen

In 2012 nearly 90 million people did not vote!

Who? young, uneducated, unmarried, minority

Purposes of Elections

Regular free elections ◦ guarantee mass political action ◦ enable citizens to influence the actions of their

government

Popular election confers legitimacy on a government that can be achieved no other way

Regular elections also ensure that government is accountable to the people it serves

Purposes of ElectionsElectorate

◦Citizens eligible to vote

Mandate:◦A command, indicated by an electorate’s voters, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms

◦Sometimes the claim of a mandate is suspect because voters are not so much endorsing one candidate as rejecting the other

Types of Elections

Primary Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election.

Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote

Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote

Blanket primary: a primary in which voters can cast votes back and forth between candidates from any party.

Initiative, Referendum, and Recall

Initiative◦An election that allows citizens to

propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote

Referendum◦An election whereby the state

legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval

Recall◦Voters can remove an incumbent from

office by popular vote◦Are very rare

Conventional Political ParticipationFollowing and discussing politicsCampaign activities – contributing money

VotingContacting public officials – letters, e-mails, phone calls

Group activities (political parties, interest groups, etc.)

Unconventional Political Participation

BoycottsProtestsPicketingRioting and violence – not happy with the process or no faith in the system (small minority)

Voting Eligibility Elimination of property requirements (1830)

Elimination of racial discrimination in 15th Amendment (1870)

Elimination of sexual discrimination in 19th Amendment (1920)

Elimination of poll taxes in 24th Amendment (1964)

Elimination of literacy tests in Voting Rights Act (1965)

Elimination of several state registration laws in Voting Rights Act (1993)(Motor Voter Act – tied to Motor Registration)

Reduction of voting age to 18 in 26th Amendment (1971)

Voting BehaviorWhat motivates people to

participate?Why are Americans so apathetic about the voting process?

Turnout – the proportion of voting-age public (about 40%) who regularly vote in American elections

Turnout is important in a winner-takes-all system George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes!

Patterns in Voter Turnout

Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes

◦40% of the eligible adult population votes

◦25% are occasional voters

◦35% rarely vote

Patterns in Voter TurnoutEducation: Voters tend to be more educated Income: Consistent voters have higher incomesAge: Younger people vote lessGender: Women vote at the same rate or slightly higher

rate than menYoung women – more likely Democrat

Race and Ethnicity: ◦ Whites vote more regularly than African Americans –

related to income and educational differences in the two groups

◦ Hispanics vote less than African Americans◦ Have potential to wield much influence given their

increasing size Interest in politics: Those interested in politics vote moreRegion: South/Midwest – Republican

New England/West Coast – DemocratsCities – DemocratsRural - Republicans

Where do I belong??Where do I belong??

◦Party identification is often a voter's central political reference symbol.

◦Party identification generally come from one's parents. However, party ID can be affected by a

number of factors such as education, peers, charismatic personalities, cataclysmic events, and intense social issues.

Political Political IdentificatiIdentificati

on by on by GroupGroup

Young People and Issues- Young People and Issues- 20122012

Hispanic voters are becoming Hispanic voters are becoming increasingly important.- 2008increasingly important.- 2008Between 2000 and 2004, Hispanics accounted for half of the growth in the U.S. population.◦Out of every 100 Hispanics, 40 were

voting age citizens, 23 were likely to be registered and only 18 were likely to vote.

◦But on Super Tuesday in California 2008, Hispanics were 30% of the Democratic primary electorate, up from about 17% four years ago

State sizes are determined by the number of electoral votes.

Hispanic Population in the United States: 1970 to 2050

Source of Data and Year

Hispanic Population (in millions)

Percent Hispanic of the total population

Census Year

1970 9.6 4.7%1980 14.6 6.4%1990 22.4 9.0%2000 35.3 12.5%

Projections    2010* 47.8 15.5%2020* 59.7 17.8%2030* 73.0 20.1%2040* 87.7 22.3%

2050* 102.6 24.4%ote:*Projected population as of July 1SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Censuses; Population Projections, July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2050.

Importance of Religion-Importance of Religion-2004-082004-08

In 2004 where an individual stood on religion was a good predictor of how he would vote. ◦ The more religiously

observant groups turned out heavily for George Bush

◦ The less observant ones for John Kerry.

The fastest growing Christian denominations are evangelical, and they gave Mike Huckabee a boost in Iowa and in the South on Super Tuesday.

But the number of people with no religious affiliation is growing. ◦ These individuals are

now about 16% of the population, up from 8% in the 1980s.

◦ They're reliable Democratic voters.

Mike Huckabee

More Likely to be a More Likely to be a DemocratDemocrat

WomenPoor“Blue Collar” Workers

– hourly workersYoungJewishUrbanStudents

MinoritiesRustbelt resident-

Blue states

More Likely to be a More Likely to be a RepublicanRepublican

MenWealthy“White Collar” Workers

– salaried workersOldProtestant- EvangelicalSunbelt resident-

South and West (Red States)

Highly educated

Northern/Western European Ethnic Background

SuburbanMarried w/children

Reasons for Voting

Duty and obligation of citizenship

Belief that every vote counts

Predicted closeness of an election

Desire to influence elections & policy

Identification with a party or candidate

Reasons NOT to voteLack of interest,

too busy

Lack of faith in system

Lack of choices between candidates

Domination of area by one party

Weather

Lack of transportation

Illness on voting day

Failure to obtain absentee ballot

Out of district on voting day

Political KnowledgePolitical Knowledge

Voter Turnout50%+ participation in presidential elections

33% for high state offices33% + for congressional midterm elections

20% for lower state and all local elections

38% votes every two years in elections (core electorate)

2014 – 38%

Reasons to Vote for aParticular Candidate

Party Affiliation

Policy Vision

Interest in a particular issue

Personal Appeal

1) 2 states allow felons to vote from jail

2) 2 states require first time voters to show ID

3) 3 states require a photo ID4) 18 states require some form of ID5) 12 states require registration at

least 30 days prior to the election

Can states deter you from Can states deter you from voting?voting?

Is this a problem?

Would you vote?Would you vote?

Efforts to Improve Voter Turnout

Easier Registration and Absentee Voting

Make Election Day a HolidayStrengthen PartiesOther suggestions

◦ Holding fewer elections◦ Proportional representation system for

congressional elections◦ Saturday or Sunday election day◦ Making voting mandatory◦ Tax credits for voting◦ Election weeks rather than election days◦ Internet voting – FRAUD CONCERNS

The Party ConventionsOut-of-power party holds its convention

first, usually in late July/August, followed in August/Sept by party holding the presidency

Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century

Today the convention is fundamentally different ◦ Nominations settled well in advance of the

convention because of primaries

2012 National 2012 National ConventionsConventions

Democrats Republicans

September 3 – 6, 2012

Charlotte, NC

August 27 – 30, 2012Tampa, FL

Primary or CaucusThere are two ways to elect the party nominee for president

They are held in each state and territories (but these guys don’t get to vote in the election)

It is not in the Constitution and was created over time by the parties

They are held between January and June before the November election

Each party determines how many delegates are assigned to each state

Primary or CaucusThere are different systems:

◦Winner-take-all primary - who gets the most votes in a state get all the delegatesDemocrats don’t use it because it is not representative

◦Proportional representation primary – delegates assigned in proportion to the number of votes – if over 15% of the vote

◦Caucus – party members meet in small groups to select delegates to the national convention

Primaries Caucuses

◦More democratic

◦More representative

◦A rigorous test for the candidate

◦ Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative

◦ Unfair scheduling affects outcomes

◦ Frontloading (being first in the primary calendar) gives some primary states an advantage Frontloading is the

tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule

Primary voting can bring:Primary voting can bring: Crossover voting: participation in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated

Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party

Runoff primary: a second primary election between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the first primary

2012 Primary Resultshttp://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html

The Primaries and those Pesky The Primaries and those Pesky Delegates (and Delegates (and Superdelegates)Superdelegates)

Democrats◦ There are currently 4,049 total

delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 unpledged or superdelegates. The total number of delegate

votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025.

Republicans◦ There are currently 2,380 total

delegates to the Republican National Convention, including 1,917 pledged delegates and 463 unpledged delegates. The total number of delegate

votes needed to win the nomination is 1,191.

• Each party holds a primary or a caucus in each state

• Then, the political elite from each party are selected as pledged delegates • These delegates must

vote as their state voted on first ballot

• Both parties have unpledged delegates as well who are not obligated to vote with state delegates

The Basic Structure of American The Basic Structure of American Political PartiesPolitical Parties

Unpledged (called Superdelegates in the Democratic Party) do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position.

These are typically members of the national committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders

The Constitutional Basis for Presidential Elections The Constitution’s

Framers doubted the public’s ability to directly elect its leaders

Article II: Electors from each state vote directly for president

1804: The 12th Amendment changed the electoral process to a presidential/vice-presidential ticket

Verifying the Electoral College vote in the House of Representatives, 1913

45

The Presidential Election Process

The public votes for president in November every four years

The members of the Electoral College cast the official votes for president the next month, in December

President is sworn in at noon on Jan. 20 the following year

November 2008

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

26 27 28 29 30 31 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 1 2 3 4 5 6

December 2008

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

30 1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30 31 1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

The Presidential Election Process Each state has a

designated number of electors

In most states, electoral votes are awarded on a “winner take all” basis; Nebraska and Maine use proportional distribution

Out of 538 electoral votes, candidates need 270 to win election

Electoral College votes by state

◦ Each state gets as many electors as members of Congress (538 total)

◦ These electors are encouraged to represent the vote of their state using a winner-take-all system. (If CA votes for GOP, all 55 electors vote GOP, even if the total popular vote was 51%-49%)

◦ Magic number: 270 electoral votes are needed to become president.

◦ Representatives of each state who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president

◦ District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes (23rd Amendment)

◦ Vote of ElectorsFirst Monday after first Wednesday in DecemberCounted before joint session of Congress in January by the Vice President.

◦ Founding Fathers wanted a way to prevent the people from outright electing the president...they were afraid of Joe Six Pack!

What are electoral votes?

The Electoral College in the 19th Century

12th Amendment (1804)◦ Attempt to remedy the confusion

between the selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election of 1800

◦ Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each

◦ In event of a tie, the election still went to the House

◦ Top three candidates go to House ◦ Each state House delegation casts one

vote

The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Electoral college crises◦ At times a candidate can win the Electoral

College vote without having won the popular vote

Reapportionment matters◦ Representation of states in the Electoral

College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts

◦ Party in power can work to earn more districts as new lines are drawn.

1. Winner of popular vote doesn’t always become president (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000)

2. Nothing requires electors to follow the votes of their states.

3. If no one wins majority of elector votes, H of R decides election.

4. Big “swing” states (OH, FL) become key to an election, candidates spend most time/$ there.

Flaws in the systemFlaws in the system

Electoral College 2008Electoral College 2008

Obama 69,456,897 365McCain 59,534,814 173

Electoral votes – 332 206States won – 26 24Popular vote – 65,915,796:

60,933,500Percentage – 51.1% 47.2%

REDRED and and BLUEBLUE states states

Congressional Elections

Very different from presidential elections◦ Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting

media attention

Incumbency Advantage (over 90% advantage)◦ Better known, highly visible in the district◦ Representatives can hire 18 permanent and 4

non-permanent aides◦ Fundraising is easier◦ Can use office resources (franking privilege, staff,

travel, etc.)◦ Can cite work already done in Washington◦ Incumbency often scares of good challengers

Senate: 1/3 of chamber up for election every 2 years (6 year terms)

House: all 435 districts up for election every 2 years

Incumbents reign supreme Most House districts considered

safe for one of the parties—why? The parties help create the districts!

Leads to many one-sided elections which decreases voter turnout and increases partisanship

Congressional Elections

Congressional Elections

When incumbents lose it is generally due to:◦RedistrictingGerrymandering

◦Scandals◦Presidential Coattails

Midterm Congressional Elections

Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term◦President’s party usually loses seats in midterms

◦Tendency for voters to punish the president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency - 6th year itch Retrospective voting Senate elections less inclined to the 6th year itch