VOTER TURNOUT in the 2012 Election
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Transcript of VOTER TURNOUT in the 2012 Election
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VOTER TURNOUTin the 2012 Election
Presented by
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Nonprofit VOTE is the nation’s largest provider of voter engagement resources and trainings designed specifically for nonprofits to help them to integrate nonpartisan voter
participation into their ongoing activities and services.
Nonprofit VOTE is voter participation partner of the National Association of Secretaries of State for the
nonprofit sectorVisit our website for more on our mission and partners: www.nonprofitvote.org
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TODAY’S PRESENTERS
WhoJulian Johannesen
Director of Research and Training
Nonprofit VOTE
Sophie LehmanCommunications Director
Nonprofit VOTE
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http://www.nonprofitvote.org/voter-turnout.html
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AGENDA
Agenda
Measuring Voter Turnout Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections The Swing State and Election Day Registration
Effects The Youth Vote The Latino Vote Gaps in Voter Turnout by Demographic Improving Voting and Elections
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• Common Measurements• As a % of Registered Voters• As a % of Eligible Voters
• Voter Turnout• Highest Office and Total Turnout
• Voting Eligible Population• 18 and over, citizen, ex-offender
MEASURING VOTER TURNOUT
MeasuringVoter
Turnout
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• What is the National Election Exit Poll?• What does the NEEP report?
– Share of the vote by demographics– Issue preferences– Partisan choice
• The Census’ Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement– Voter turnout estimates by demographic– Available in the spring after the election
TURNOUT DEMOGRAPHICS
MeasuringVoter
Turnout
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http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president
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http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/
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VOTER TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS
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• 58.7% of voting eligible citizens turned out to vote in the 2012 presidential election, about 130.3 million voters
VOTER TURNOUT IN 2012
Voter Turnout
2012• Turnout was dragged down by low
turnout in the large states like California, New York, and Texas
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THE VOTER TURNOUT TREND
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HIGH TURNOUT STATES
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Many factors affect state turnout, e.g. whether there are other competitive races on the ballot or a controversial ballot measure – and the mobilization that goes with that.But the two strongest predictors of state voter turnout are: 1) Whether a state is a swing state2) Whether a state has Election Day
registration
FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT
Voter Turnout
2012
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SWING STATESAND
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
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• What is a “Swing State?” • Turnout in the 10 swing
states was 65.2%, 7.2 points higher than in non-swing states, which had an average turnout of 58%.
• Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 were swing states
SWING STATES
Swing andEDR
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SWING STATES AND SPENDING
Swing andEDR
Source: Washington Post Online, “Mad Money: TV ads in the 2012 presidential campaign”
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• What is “Election Day registration?”• In 2012, states with Election Day registration had
average turnout of 71.3%, 12.5 points higher than the turnout in states without EDR. Those states had an average turnout rate of 58.8%.
• Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in 2012 have some form of Election Day registration.
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
Swing andEDR
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ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
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YOUTH VOTE AND
LATINO VOTE
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• Young voters increased their share of the electorate by one point, from 18% in 2008 to 19% in 2012
• The youth vote was a determining factor in four swing states.
YOUTH VOTE
Youth and Latino
• Youth turnout was especially high in swing states – an estimated 58%, compared to just 47% in non-swing states.
• Young voters were the most racially and ethnically diverse segment of the electorate.
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YOUTH VOTE
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• In 2012, the Latino share of the vote rose to 10%.• Latino turnout is estimated at 53%, that’s six points
below the national average. Roughly 12.5 million Latinos voted out of a voting eligible population of about 23.7 million.
• Latino voters are a crucial voting bloc in many states, including swing states like Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. In Colorado the Latino share of the vote was 14%, in Florida 17%, and in Nevada 18%, all higher than in 2008
LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE
Youth and Latino
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LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE
Youth and Latino
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• The African American vote held steady at 13% of the electorate and may have surpassed the white vote in percent turnout
• API share of vote grew to 3%. With a 47% partisan gap favoring Obama over Romney
• Early voting continued to rise but more slowly. 35% voted early.
OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS
Youth and Latino
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VOTER TURNOUTGAPS
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VOTER TURNOUT GAPS
Gaps
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IMPROVING VOTING AND ELECTIONS
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• Online, paperless voter registration
• Election Day Registration or same-day registration during early voting periods
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION
RegistrationModernizatio
n
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• Pre-registration for young people
• Active voter registration
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION
RegistrationModernizatio
n
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[email protected] (8683)www.nonprofitvote.orgNonprofit VOTE89 South StreetSuite 203Boston, MA 02111
Sophie [email protected]
Julian [email protected]