David Bohm's Theory of the Implicate Order: Implications for
Vopak Analyst Meeting in Antwerp Jack de Kreij 10 July 2008 · Market approach Income approach ......
Transcript of Vopak Analyst Meeting in Antwerp Jack de Kreij 10 July 2008 · Market approach Income approach ......
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ANALYST MEETINGANTWERP JULY 10, 2008
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Sharp strategic focus & an eye for detail
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• Vopak’s Transformation Process
• Financial Performance
• Inflation
• Macroeconomic Developments and The PotentialImpact on Tank Storage Demand
• Growth Projects
• Financing
• Vopak Terminal Bahamas
Agenda
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Vopak has now completed a successful ‘shrink to grow’ revitalization
Revenues in billion EUR; all figures are excl. exceptional items and incl. joint ventures
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Revenues EBITDA margin EBIT margin ROCE
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Products
Logistics services
Terminal location
Value chain (backward) Value chain
(forward)
GeographiesTerminal
types
Many choices made…
LNG
Bio fuels
Vegetable oils
Chemicals
Oil
ME
America’s
Asia
Europe
“Industrial”
“Distribution”
“Hub”
Barging
Shipping
Forwarding
Sea ports
Inland harbors
Airports
Electrical & automation
Civil se
rvices
Mechanical services
Inspection & test services
Waste management Terminal operations
Outsourcing vendor to majors
Simple refining/processing
Product trading
Trucking
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Products
Logistics services
Terminal location
Value chain (backward) Value chain
(forward)
GeographiesTerminal
types
Focus after split-off (July 2002)
LNG
Bio fuels
Vegetable oils
Chemicals
Oil
ME
America’s
Asia
Europe
“Industrial”
“Distribution”
“Hub”
Barging
Shipping
Forwarding
Sea ports
Inland harbors
Airports
Electrical & automation
Civil se
rvices
Mechanical services
Inspection & test services
Waste management Terminal operations
Outsourcing vendor to majors
Simple refining/processing
Product trading
TruckingSituation 2002
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Products
Logistics services
Terminal location
Value chain (backward) Value chain
(forward)
GeographiesTerminal
types
Clear choices in 2003
LNG
Bio fuels
Vegetable oils
Chemicals
Oil
ME
America’s
Asia
Europe
“Industrial”
“Distribution”
“Hub”
Barging
Shipping
Forwarding
Sea ports
Inland harbors
Airports
Electrical & automation
Civil se
rvices
Mechanical services
Inspection & test services
Waste management Terminal operations
Outsourcing vendor to majors
Simple refining/processing
Product trading
TruckingSituation 2002
Vopak Core
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Products
Logistics services
Terminal location
Value chain (backward) Value chain
(forward)
GeographiesTerminal
types
Growth and excellence focus
LNG
Bio fuels
Vegetable oils
Chemicals
Oil
ME
America’s
Asia
Europe
“Industrial”
“Distribution”
“Hub”
Barging
Shipping
Forwarding
Sea ports
Inland harbors
Airports
Electrical & automation
Civil se
rvices
Mechanical services
Inspection & test services
Waste management Terminal operations
Outsourcing vendor to majors
Simple refining/processing
Product trading
TruckingSituation 2002
Vopak Core
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Products
Logistics services
Terminal location
Value chain (backward) Value chain
(forward)
GeographiesTerminal
types
Accelerating growth strategy (2007)
LNG
Bio fuels
Vegetable oils
Chemicals
Oil
ME
America’s
Asia
Europe
“Industrial”
“Distribution”
“Hub”
Barging
Shipping
Forwarding
Sea ports
Inland harbors
Airports
Electrical & automation
Civil se
rvices
Mechanical services
Inspection & test services
Waste management Terminal operations
Outsourcing vendor to majors
Simple refining/processing
Product trading
Trucking
Vopak 2007
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Cost Efficient Operations
Customer Leadership
Strategic Focus VopakExecution of the strategy is on track
Growth Leadership
Pursue and strengthen leadership in key locations
Invest in partnerships with strategic customers
Attain service excellence across the network
Become preferred provider for strategic accounts
Attain low cost position compared to key
competitors
Develop superior ability to withstand all economic
conditions
Leadership EnablersAlign structure with strategy and improve supply of human capital
ExcellenceSet new standards in commercial operational and financial excellence
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Financial Performance
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148,3 152,9179,7
220,9
272,9
300
100
150
200
250
300
2003* 2004 2005 2006 2007 Outlook2008
EBIT excl. exceptionals
EBIT excl. exceptionals is developing positively
* based on Dutch GAAP
In EUR millions
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220.9 272.9
Outlook Summary
* EBITDA includes joint ventures & associates results **excluding exceptional items
475-550
FY 2006 FY 20075 year plan
(2011)EUR (mln)
EBIT**
388.8EBITDA* 309.8
ROCE 25.1%19.4% Around 16%
OutlookFY 2008
a minimum increase of10%
Long-term
Bearing in mind substantialinvestments in greenfield
projects/ expansions
Bearing in mind substantialinvestments in greenfield
projects/ expansions
Guidance
Updated to2009 / 2010
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EBIT 2008 Outlook reflects 17.5% increasecompared to Normalized 2007 Results
Actual 2007 ImpactDivestments
ExchangeRate
Normalized2007 EBIT
Outlook 2008
17.5%17.5%
272.9255.4
9.28.3 300
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Reconciling Q1 2008 Results to Outlook 2008 requires an eye for detail…
Actual Q1 EBIT:€ 79.2M
+* expansions* margin management
Outlook 2008
€ 300M EBIT
-/-* tanks out of operation* one-off revenues* pre-operating expenses* depreciation* start-up results* IFRS 3* inflation (timing differences)
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Vopak’s challenge
The challenge is facilitating the product flows:
LOCATION
•Hinterland connections•Deep water access•Permit structure•Land availability•Port importance/
speciality•Competitive situation
INFRASTRUCTURE
•Tanks sizes•Jetty capacity•Truck/rail loading
stations•Capacity to blend•Automation level
MEETINGDIFFERENT CLIENT NEEDS
•Flexibility•Speedy ship
turnaround•High SHE standards•Availability of
services: blending, heating, etc.
•Hinterland connections:river, road, rail
…resulting in different EBITDA margins.
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IFRS 3 requires purchase price allocation toidentifiable assets with different depreciation / amortization periods
Starting 2010, professional service fees related to acquisitionscannot be capitalized anymore.
Identifiable Assets Depreciation / Amortization Valuation approach
PPELand rent LandIntangible assets
Economic life period
Dependent on business drivers
Depreciatedreplacement cost (PPE)Market approachIncome approach
Goodwill Annual impairment test
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Realizing a € 550M EBITDA level in 2010 wouldimplicate an increase by 34% in 2 years time…
± 410475
550
EBITDA Outlook 2008
34%34%
2009 / 2010EBITDA Guidance
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Inflation
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InflationCPI 2008 forecast
North and Latin Americas
Canada
U.S.
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Venezuela
Inflationwage2008 forecast
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InflationCPI 2008 forecast
Europe
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Inflationwage2008 forecast
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Asia
China
Japan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Australia
InflationCPI 2008 forecast
Inflationwage2007 actual
* Actual 2006
*
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Global Carbon Steel Prices
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Global Stainless Steel Prices
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Macroeconomic developments and the potential impact on tank storage demand
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
World Trade in Major Liquid Petrochemicals
Mixed Xylenes Paraxylene Benzene Cumene Phenol Styrene MEG Methanol
Thousand Metric Tons
US closed PX plants
NA closed methanol plants, new mega plants in LA and ME
World Trade in Major Liquid Petrochemicals
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
‐
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Trade ThousandsTons
Production Thousands Tons
Production Vs Trade
Total Production Trade
9/11, Internet collapse and Enron-case
WT/WP= 19%
WT/WP= 26%
Production VS Trade
Source: CMAI
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
World Trade in Major Liquid Petrochemicals
Selected Imports % World GDP
Thousand Metric Tons % GDP
World Trade in Major Liquid Petrochemicals
Source: CMAI
9/11, Internet collapse and Enron-case
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• Growth in major chemical trade flows exceeds production growth
• Growth in world trade flows is expected to continue to accelerate
• Historic impact of economic slowdowns on trade flows limited
Important observations
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Shift of production to Middle East / Asia
New flows will come on stream
Dependability on Middle East increases
ME will become the main exporter in bulk chemicals
China / India strongest growing economies / regions
New and growing flows
Supply and demand imbalances grow
As a consequence product flows will grow
Import in Europe of commodity chemicals increase
More tank storage for bulk chemicals
Macro economic developments and the potential impact on tank storage demand
Source: CMAI
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Rationalization of Producers continues
Growing number of global customers
BioFuels development : impact on the Fuel supply / demand
On the longer term fuel supply / demand balances will change
Expansion of EU countries E15 – E25
New flows will come on stream
Increasing role for major hubs
Important to be there
Macro economic developments and the potential impact on tank storage demand
Source: CMAI
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Growth projects
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Projects completed YTD 2008
Location Ownership Type Consolidated Joint venture
Rotterdam 100% Expansion 200,000
Fujairah 30% Expansion 380,000
Sebarok 69.5% Expansion 125,000
Zhangjiagang 100% Expansion 12,500
Bahamas 20% Acquisition 3.0M
Vopak EOS 35% Merger 0.4M
Malaysia 100% Acquisition 20,600
Other 65,000 20,000
Total added capacity YTD 2008 423,100 3.6M
Total added capacity YTD 2008 >4M cbm
Additional CBM
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To be operational in 2008
Location Ownership Type Products Consolidated Joint venture
Zhangjiagang 100% Expansion Chemicals 72,000
BanyanPhase 3
69.5% Expansion Oil / Chemicals
320,000
Sebarok 69.5% Expansion Oil 91,000
Vopak EOS 35% Expansion Oil 200,000
Other 120,000 40,000
Total capacity to be added in 2008 603,000 240,000
Total capacity to be added in 2008 843,000 cbm
Additional CBM
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To be operational in 2009
Location Ownership Type Products Consolidated Joint venture
Botlek Zuid 100% Expansion Chemicals 156,000
BanyanPhase 4
69.5% Expansion Oil / Chemicals
390,000
Sydney 100% Expansion Oil 83,000
Penjuru 69.5% Expansion Chemicals 65,000
Vlaardingen 100% Expansion Chemicals 60,000
Other 138,000 28,000
Total capacity to be added in 2009 892,000 28,000
Total capacity to be added in 2009 920,000 cbm
Additional CBM
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Financing
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3.75
Strategic Finance: Sufficient Flexibility
* based on Dutch GAAP
Maximum Ratio under US PP
Net debt : EBITDA ratio
Maximum Ratio under other loans and syndicated revolving credit facility
׀
1.71
1.61
1.76
2.20
2.42
2.49
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
2002*
2003*
2004
2005
2006
2007
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Covenant/Term US PP 2001 US PP 2007 New RCFMaximum Net Debt / EBITDA 3.75 3.75 3.75
Additional headroomWhen financed withsubordinated debt
Up to 4.25 > 3.75
EBITDA / Net Interest Payable
> 4.0 > 3.5 > 3.5
Overview of US PP terms and RCF
Amount USD396 mln
USD 375 mln
EUR 1 bln
+ EUR 200 mln
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Vopak Terminal Bahamas
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Balance sheet
Vopak Terminal Bahamas –impact on Vopak Financial Statement
Profit & Loss
Cash Flow*
Joint venturesand associates
Result of jv(equity method) +Management fee
Acquisition priceDividend
* First 5 years no dividend expected. Operational free cash flow will be reinvested in expanding the terminal.
Equity: 20% Capacity: 3M cbm
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Strategic Location
The closest proximity to the U.S. East Coast
Deep water access (VLCC and ULCC)
Availability of land means room forexpansions
Close to the refineries/clients
Transshipment hub
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Shipping Connections
The max draughts of Florida ports:– Tampa: 13 metres– Port Manatee: 12 metres– Jacksonville: 11 metres– Port Canaveral: 12 metres– Palm Beach: 10 metres– Port Everglade: 13 metres
The ports must rely on the local supplyhub as their draughts are not deepenough to accomodate the VLCCs:
The break bulk is necessary.
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This presentation contains statements of a forward-looking nature, based on currently available plans and forecasts. Given the dynamics of the markets and the environments of the 31 countries in which Vopak renders logistics services, the company cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of such statements.
Unforeseen circumstances include, but are not limited to, exceptional income and expense items, unexpected economic, political and foreign exchange developments, and possible changes to IFRS reporting rules.
Statements of a forward-looking nature issued by the company must always be assessed in the context of the events, risks and uncertainties of the markets and environments in which Vopak operates. These factors couldlead to actual results being materially different from those expected.
Forward-looking statement
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45Thank you!