Volume 3, Issue 7: November 16, 2015 FOOD DEMAND...
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F oo DS FOOD DEMAND SURVEY Volume 3, Issue 7: November 16, 2015 Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Jayson Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465 Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857 This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. FooDS tracks consumer preferences and senments on the safety, quality, and price of food at home and away from home with parcular focus on meat demand. FooDS is a monthly on-line survey with a sample size of at least 1,000 individuals, weighted to match the US populaon in terms of age, gender, educaon and region of residence. See the online technical document for more details. About the Survey Aſter a dip last month, willingness-to-pay (WTP) increased for all products increased in November. Among meat products, WTP for chicken wings witnessed the highest percentage increase of approximately 39%. Hamburger saw the smallest percent increase from last month at 1.22%. WTP for hamburger, pork chops, and deli ham are all lower relave to this me last year, whereas WTP for steak, chicken breast, and chicken wings are all higher compared to this me last year. MEAT DEMAND Food expenditures for food eaten at home decreased 3.21% from October to November and food expenditures for food purchased away from home decreased 4.85% relave to last month. Consumers expect higher meat prices than they did a month ago, and they report expecng to buy slightly less chicken, beef, and pork compared to last month. FOOD EXPENDITURES Willingness-to- Pay Steak Chicken Breast Hamburger Pork Chop Deli Ham Chicken Wing Beans & Rice Pasta Last Year: November 2014 $7.00 $5.16 $4.62 $4.02 $2.56 $2.42 $2.20 $3.48 Last Month: October 2015 $6.60 $4.96 $4.10 $3.44 $1.70 $1.76 $1.06 $2.63 November 2015 $7.06 $5.44 $4.15 $3.82 $1.98 $2.45 $2.04 $2.77 % change (Oct. - Nov.) 6.97% 9.68% 1.22% 11.05% 16.47% 39.2% 92.45% 5.32% Current weekly at home Current weekly away from home Ancipated change in at home in next 2 weeks Ancipated change away from home in next 2 weeks November 2014 $94.13 $49.91 0.54% -1.85% October 2015 $98.71 $56.11 -0.42% -1.37% November 2015 $95.54 $53.39 0.72% -1.59% % change (Oct. - Nov.) -3.21% -4.85% -------- --------
Transcript of Volume 3, Issue 7: November 16, 2015 FOOD DEMAND...
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FooDSFOOD DEMAND SURVEY
Volume 3, Issue 7: November 16, 2015
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
FooDS tracks consumer preferences and sentiments on the safety, quality, and price of food at home and away from home with particular focus on meat demand. FooDS is a monthly on-line survey with a sample size of at least 1,000 individuals, weighted to match the US population in terms of age, gender, education and region of residence. See the online technical document for more details.
About the Survey
After a dip last month, willingness-to-pay (WTP) increased for all products increased in November. Among meat products, WTP for chicken wings witnessed the highest percentage increase of approximately 39%. Hamburger saw the smallest percent increase from last month at 1.22%. WTP for hamburger, pork chops, and deli ham are all lower relative to this time last year, whereas WTP for steak, chicken breast, and chicken wings are all higher compared to this time last year.
MEAT DEMAND
Food expenditures for food eaten at home decreased 3.21% from October to November and food expenditures for food purchased away from home decreased 4.85% relative to last month. Consumers expect higher meat prices than they did a month ago, and they report expecting to buy slightly less chicken, beef, and pork compared to last month.
FOOD EXPENDITURES
Willingness-to-Pay
Steak Chicken Breast
Hamburger Pork Chop Deli Ham Chicken Wing
Beans & Rice
Pasta
Last Year:November 2014
$7.00 $5.16 $4.62 $4.02 $2.56 $2.42 $2.20 $3.48
Last Month:October 2015
$6.60 $4.96 $4.10 $3.44 $1.70 $1.76 $1.06 $2.63
November 2015 $7.06 $5.44 $4.15 $3.82 $1.98 $2.45 $2.04 $2.77
% change(Oct. - Nov.)
6.97% 9.68% 1.22% 11.05% 16.47% 39.2% 92.45% 5.32%
Current weekly at home
Current weekly away from home
Anticipated change in at home in next 2 weeks
Anticipated change away from home in next 2 weeks
November 2014 $94.13 $49.91 0.54% -1.85%
October 2015 $98.71 $56.11 -0.42% -1.37%
November 2015 $95.54 $53.39 0.72% -1.59%
% change(Oct. - Nov.)
-3.21% -4.85% -------- --------
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
Consumer Expectations FooDS Page 2
E. coli, Salmonella, and GMO were the most visible issues in the news over the past two weeks. The largest percent jump in awareness from October to November was for E. coli. The largest percent decrease in awareness from October to November was for gestation crates and BSE. E. coli, Salmonella, and antibiotics were ranked as the top three concerns during November. The concern for all items decreased over the past month. The largest percent decrease in concern was for battery cages and cloning.
AWARENESS & CONCERN TRACKING
Awareness of Food Issues
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
Concern for Food Issues FooDS Page 3
Taste, safety, and price remained consumers’ most important values when purchasing food this month. Consumer values remained similar to those in past months, with slight decreases in perceived values of appearance and an increase in perceived value of fairness and environment. Similar to previous months, consumers reported that their main challenge was finding affordable foods that fit within their budget. Finding time to cook at home and finding food children will eat remained the least pressing challenges. 3.37% of participants reported having food poisoning, a 34.44% decrease from October.
GENERAL FOOD VALUES
Consumer Challenges Consumer Values
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
FooDS Page 4
Three new ad hoc questions were added to the survey this month.The first question asked: “Imagine you could live anywhere in the world. Suppose there were eight different locations you could choose from that were similar in all respects except for the types of food available. For each of the following eight locations, please rank how desirable it would be to live there.”Then, eight options were presented (in random order) that varied food cost, taste, chance of foodborne illness, and life expectancy. The figure below shows the average ranking for each of the eight options presented. More interesting is how people made tradeoffs between the factors. Statistical analysis indicates the following formula: (9-ranking)=0.10-0.035*Cost+1.31*BetterTaste-0.52*#Sicknesses+0.066*Age. The results reveal people would be willing to pay about 38% higher food prices for better vs. worst tasting food (1.31/.035) and would give up 20 years of life expectancy to live with better tasting food (1.31/0.066). An extra case of foodborne illness is equivalent to about 15% higher food prices in terms of satisfaction with a location (0.52/0.035).Looking at how rankings can change by moving from the lowest to the highest level of each characteristic suggests taste is the most important issue followed by safety, then life expectancy, then cost.
AD HOC QUESTIONS
Preferences for Living Locations
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
FooDS Page 5AD HOC QUESTIONSThe second question asked: “How much evidence do scientists have that each of the following items causes cancer?” Using the classification scheme used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), respondents were asked whether they believed each item to be carcinogenic to humans, probably carcinogenic to humans, possibly carcinogenic to humans, carcinogenicity not classifiable, or probably not carcinogenic. Over 66% of respondents indicated that smoking was “carcinogenic”. Most issues, including red and processed meat, were most rated as “possibly carcinogenic”. Respondents were most likely to classify coffee, pickled vegetables, and tea as “not carcinogenic.” Assigning the classifications as 1=probably not carcinogenic to 5=carcinogenic, the following means (in parentheses) are obtained: Smoking (4.3), Agricultural pesticides (3.7), Coffee (3.5), Tea (3.4), Sunlight (3.4), Polyethylene plastic (3.2), Gasoline engine exhaust (3.1), Alcoholic beverages (3.0), Processed meat (2.7), Fluorescent lighting (2.5), Nylon (2.5), Red meat (2.2), Emissions from high temperature frying (2.1), Pickled vegetables (1.9).
Carcinogenic Agents
Food Demand Survey | Oklahoma State University | [email protected] Lusk | Regents Professor & Willard Sparks Endowed Chair | 405-744-7465
Susan Murray | Research Specialist | 405-744-4857This project is supported by a Willard Sparks Endowment, the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, and the
Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Program of the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
FooDS Page 6AD HOC QUESTIONSThe third question stated: “According to the American Cancer Society, there will be about 1.6 million new cancer cases in the United States this year. What percentage of those new cancer cases do you believe are caused by the following items?”Respondents stated that approximately 30% of new cancer cases each year are due to smoking. Respondents stated that 13.96% of new cancer cases were due to other factors not listed. Processed meat was thought to be the cause of 6.5% of new cancer cases, while red meat was stated to be the cause of 5.77% of new cancer cases and tea ranked the lowest for causes of new cancer cases at 1.72%.
Perceived Cancer Causes
