Volume 3, Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases …...2019/06/07 · (450-1000m), approach, taxi...

Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT

© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

Volume 3, Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases

Appendices

Appendix 9.1 Current baseline

Appendix 9.2 Construction

Appendix 9.3 Air transport

Appendix 9.4 Surface access

Appendix 9.5 Airport buildings and ground operations

Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline

Appendix 9.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

APPENDIX 9.1

CURRENT BASELINE



CONTENTS

1. Data collection and methodology 1

2. Glossary of terms 7

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 9.1.1: Data sources, modelling and assumptions behind the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment 2 Table 9.1.2: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG current baseline 7


Appendix 9.1-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

1. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY

1.1.1 Baseline data is collected and reported in a way that is consistent with Airport

Carbon Accreditation (ACA) and largely aligned to the greenhouse gas (GHG)

Protocol. Reporting is based on operations over which Heathrow has full control.

This is aligned with the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’ approach, under which

a company accounts for 100% of emissions from operations over which it or one of

its subsidiaries has operational control. The baseline covers the reporting calendar

year ending 31 December 2017.

1.1.2 The GHG emissions assessments completed for sub-aspects other than air

transport included consideration of GHGs additional to carbon dioxide. As

determined by the Kyoto Protocol these GHGs include seven gases: carbon

dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur

hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. To provide consistent reporting of these

gases, each is weighted by its global warming potential and converted to a carbon

dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in accordance with GHG reporting protocol.

1.1.3 For air transport the quantification is of CO2 only as this is consistent with the basis

on which the UK reports its aviation emissions, and is consistent with advice from

the Committee on Climate Change (CCC)1. This ensures the quantification can be

compared to UK carbon targets and budgets on a like for like basis.

1.1.4 Table 9.1.1 presents the details of the data gathered, models used and

assumptions underpinning the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment. The

emissions sources are split by sub-aspect:

1. Air transport

2. Surface access

3. Airport buildings and ground operations.

1.1.5 Construction GHG emissions are not included in the current baseline assessment

as Heathrow do not currently report on supply chain construction GHG emissions.

1.1.6 It is noted that the scope of the PEIR assessment is broader than the scope of

Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint in the case of the water and waste

components of the airport buildings and ground operations sub-aspect. The PEIR

assessment includes operations over which Heathrow does not have direct

1 Note that the approach for air travel is different to that taken in Heathrow’s annual reporting. The annual reporting follows the UK Government’s ‘Environmental Reporting Guidelines’ (June 2013) and presents all emissions in CO2e. However, Heathrow’s annual reporting is for the purposes of its sustainability commitments and to track its performance, and is not concerned with the effects of development proposals for the purposes of a DCO (which must be comparable against UK reporting).



control, such as operations by third-party businesses. As Heathrow’s annual

carbon footprint adopts the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’ approach it does

not report these third-party operations.

1.1.7 The GHG emission factors selected in Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint are in

line with government guidance for company reporting, for example adopting

factors published by BEIS which allow direct comparison with companies reporting

using the same factors. The PEIR assessment adopts GHG emission factors

selected to represent reasonable worst-case assumptions. Therefore, some of the

GHG emission factors selected to model future effects result in greater GHG

emission estimates than would result from using current baseline assumptions.

For example, the GHG emission factors selected for many categories of waste are

larger than equivalent BEIS 2017 GHG emission factors used in Heathrow’s

annual carbon footprint.

1.1.8 The GHG emissions associated with waste and water are small components of the

overall footprint. Therefore, these differences in scope and modelling assumptions

between current baseline and the PEIR assessment is negligible when the GHG

emissions from all sub-aspects are considered in total.

Table 9.1.1: Data sources, modelling and assumptions behind the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment

Emission

source

Calculation of emissions

Air transport

LTO (landing

and take-off)

Fuel consumption by mode

Modes included are auxiliary power unit (APU), take-off, initial climb (to 450m), climb out

(450-1000m), approach, taxi in, taxi out, hold, reverse thrust and landing roll.

Fuel consumption for each mode is calculated by combining data on aircraft movements,

engines, APUs and time in mode.

CO2 emissions

Fuel consumption is converted into carbon emissions using BEIS 2017 GHG emission

factors.

Surface access

Passenger

surface

access

Distance

The surface access mode choice model LASAM (London Airports Surface Access Model)

has been used to calculate total distances travelled by mode:

The distance travelled on public transport models is output from the public transport

network model within LASAM. The distance is split into distance travelled by the main

mode and feed up distance travelled by underground and national rail when applicable for

each time period. The last transit mode used to access the Airport is the one specified as

the main mode. For example, for a trip originating from Oxford station using national rail to

access Paddington station and then changing to Heathrow Express two distances are

calculated. That is the distance travelled by the main mode (Heathrow Express) and the



Emission

source


feed up distance travelled by national rail. The Charter Coach mode was not explicitly

coded in the transport network model. To calculate the distance travelled for this mode,

the distance travelled by bus or coach was used.

With regards to the highway modes the distance travelled is sourced from the Heathrow

Highway Assignment Surface Access Model (HHASAM).

The calculated distance travelled is representative for the year 2016 (the latest complete

year at the time of modelling).

Demand

Processed 2016 CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) data is used as the basis of demand in the

calculation of distance travelled by air passengers. Data from 2016 was used as this was

the latest available at the time of modelling. The processed 2016 CAA data is a matrix of

air passenger demand from each LASAM zone across the UK to each Heathrow terminal

for each mode. The CAA passenger survey is a UK-wide voluntary survey of air

passengers which includes origin or destination and mode of surface access.

The 2016 CAA base year matrix has a total of 47.3 million passengers. In late 2017 a

discrepancy between non-transfer totals exhibited in the 2016 CAA data and that of

Heathrow’s 2016 BOSS (Business Objective Search System) data was raised. BOSS is

Heathrow’s own flight information database, with more accurate (and larger) numbers of

passengers than CAA, but with no information on surface access mode. To take a worst-

case approach, the decision was taken to scale the CAA-derived LASAM base matrix (the

origin or destination and mode information) to BOSS data throughputs by terminal (the

passenger numbers). This process to scale air passenger demand to BOSS throughputs

is now standard practice for Heathrow’s air passenger demand modelling.

Following the calculation of the distance travelled using 2016 CAA demand data, the

distance travelled figures are scaled up by 20.1% to represent 2017 BOSS data air

passenger throughputs.

Person kilometres travelled

Total kilometres travelled for public transport modes are quantified as person kilometres.

These are calculated by multiplying the demand by the distance travelled matrices for

each mode and time period.

Vehicle kilometres travelled

The Time Period Model (TPM) calculates daily vehicle throughputs for taxis and private

vehicles. These are then converted to annual vehicle trips by applying the specific ratio for

each mode.

The vehicle kilometres travelled are calculated by multiplying the annual vehicle trips by

the distance travelled matrices for each mode and time period.

GHG emissions

Kilometres travelled (either vehicle or person kilometre) was multiplied by the appropriate

BEIS conversion factor.

Heathrow

colleagues

surface

access

Distance travelled

In HEM-CM, the distance travelled varied depending on whether the mode is a PT (public

transport), a Highway or an active mode. PT includes Bus and Coaches, Underground

and National Rail (for instance Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect), whereas Car



Emission

source


Driver, Car Passenger, Motorcycle, Taxi/Minicabs and Work Bus are listed as Highway

modes. Active modes include Bicycle and Walking.

The mode reported represents the main mode Heathrow employees use to access the

Airport. This is defined as the mode covering the greatest distance of their commute as

opposed to the mode that the traveller spends most of their time on.

The distance provided represents the network distance within HEM-CM. For each home

zone to Heathrow terminal combination, the distance for Car, PT, Bicycle and Walk modes

was given. As no significant difference in the distance between the different time periods

was observed, the distance reported during IP (inter-peak) was used.

The final distance by mode is the product of the corresponding demand and distance

travelled and is representative for the year 2017.

Demand

The expanded 2017 Heathrow Employment survey data is used as the basis of demand in

the calculation of distance travelled by the Heathrow employees. The survey data was

expanded using rim weights so that the employee survey results are as representative as

possible at the total level and provide a profile for the whole of the Airport.

In addition, the demand used is the demand on a typical weekday; it is inaccurate to

assume that all of the approximate 72,700 employees report to work every day. Therefore,

attendance factors per job type were computed and applied to the survey data.

Person kilometres travelled

Total kilometres travelled for PT modes are quantified as person kilometres. These are

calculated by multiplying the demand on a typical weekday by the distance travelled

matrices for each mode and time period.

Vehicle kilometres travelled

Total kilometres travelled for Highway modes are quantified as vehicle kilometres. These

are calculated by multiplying the annual vehicle trips by the distance travelled matrices for

each mode and time period.

GHG emissions



Operational

vehicles and

equipment

Fuel consumption

Data was obtained on the volume of fuel (ultra-low sulphur gas oil, diesel, petrol or LPG)

used by month, by controller location and by fleet owner.

GHG emissions

Litres of fuel consumed was multiplied by the appropriate BEIS conversion factor.

Separation of third-party consumption

Fuel consumed by third parties is a Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the

Scope 1 fuel consumption emissions.

Business

travel

Distance travelled

Data on distance travelled was obtained from:

1) The Travel Provider Carbon Report (flights, UK rail)



Emission

source


2) PSA expense report (UK rail, UK bus and coach, taxis, overseas rail, overseas bus

and coach)

3) BAA P11D Mileage Report (personal car).

GHG emissions



Airport buildings and ground operations

Electricity

consumption

Location-based emissions

Data was obtained on the electricity consumption at Heathrow (in kWh), the Business

Support Centre, the pod test track and the Heathrow Express depot.

Market-based emissions

The electricity consumed was multiplied by:

1) a supplier specific GHG emission factor for the period January to March 2017

2) a Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) specific GHG emission factor for

the period April to December 2017. Note that the supplier specific GHG emissions

factor was applied to the electricity consumption at the Heathrow Express depot for

this period also as it was not covered by the REGO

GHG emissions

The electricity consumed (in kWh) was multiplied by 2017 BEIS conversion factor


Electricity consumed by third parties (including the consumption associated with pre

conditioned air and fixed electrical ground power and the Heathrow Express depot) is a

Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the Scope 2 electricity emissions.

Fuel

consumption

Fuel consumption

For natural gas, monthly meter readings were converted into energy (kWh) by applying a

standard correction factor for temperature and pressure and by applying a calorific factor.

Data gaps due to meter failures are filled by estimating consumption using an

extrapolation method.

Gas oil consumption was calculated using year start reading, year end reading and

delivery records.

Biomass consumption was calculated using year start inventory, year end inventory and

delivery records

GHG emissions

The quantity of fuel consumed (litres or kWh) was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS

conversion factor.


Fuel consumed by third parties is a Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the

Scope 1 fuel consumption emissions.



Emission

source


Water Water quantities

The volume of water consumed (in m3) was obtained from supplier invoices.

GHG emissions

The quantity of water was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion factor.

Refrigerants Refrigerant quantities

Data was obtained on the quantity of refrigerant top ups from one contractor. The data

was estimated to cover only 30% of the total estate so was extrapolated to cover 100% of

the estate.

GHG emissions

The quantity of each refrigerant was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion

factor.

Waste Waste quantities

Data was obtained on the quantity of waste by mass (kg), broken down by waste type and

destination (recycling, landfill or incineration). Each type of waste was categorised using

the BEIS waste categories.

GHG emissions

The quantity of waste was multiplied the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion factor.



2. GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Table 9.1.2: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG current baseline

Term Definition

ACA Airport Carbon Accreditation

APU Auxiliary power unit

BEIS Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

BOSS Business Objective Search System

CAA Civil Aviation Authority

CO2 Carbon dioxide

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent

GHG Greenhouse gases

GWP Global warming potential

HEM-CM Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model

HHASAM Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model

IP Inter-peak

LASAM London Airports Surface Access Model

LTO Landing and take-off

PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report

PT Public transport

REGO Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin

TPM Time Period Model

UK United Kingdom

Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction

APPENDIX 9.2

CONSTRUCTION



CONTENTS

1. Introduction 1

2. Scope 2

3. Quantification methodology 4

3.1 GHG emissions quantification 4

4. Assumptions and limitations 9

5. Quantification results 11

5.2 Total construction emissions 11

5.3 Construction transport 13


7. Bibliography 16

Annex A: Standard normalisation factors 1

Annex B: Construction GHG factors 1

Manufacture and production of construction materials 1

Construction site works 7

Annex C: Construction GHG emissions results table 1

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 9.2.1: Construction GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.2.2: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.2.3: Assumptions for assessment of construction GHG emissions 9 Table 9.2.4: Annual GHG emissions from construction 12 Table 9.2.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from construction 15 Table 9.2.6: Standard normalisation factors: Main Buildings 1 Table 9.2.7: Standard normalisation factors: Ancillary Buildings 1 Table 9.2.8: Standard normalisation factors: Surfaces 2 Table 9.2.9: Standard normalisation factors: Road Structure 2 Table 9.2.10: Standard normalisation factors: Excavation 3 Table 9.2.11: Standard normalisation factors: Waste 3 Table 9.2.12: Standard normalisation factors: River 3



Table 9.2.13: Standard normalisation factors: Tunnel Fit-Out 3 Table 9.2.14: Standard normalisation factors: Building Fit-Out 4 Table 9.2.15: Construction material GHG emission factors: Cladding, Roofing, Fit-Out/MEP and Road Surfaces 1 Table 9.2.16: Construction material GHG emission factors: Concrete 1 Table 9.2.17: Construction material GHG emission factors: Steel 4 Table 9.2.18: Transport – materials to site GHG emission factors 5 Table 9.2.19: Transport – construction waste GHG emission factors 5 Table 9.2.20: Mass Haul GHG emission factors 6 Table 9.2.21: Transport – construction workers GHG emission factors 6 Table 9.2.22: Construction plant activities GHG emission factors: diesel powered plant 7 Table 9.2.23: Construction plant activities GHG emission factors: electric powered plant 7 Table 9.2.24: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 1 Table 9.2.25: Construction materials GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 2

TABLE OF GRAPHICS

Graphic 9.2.1: Scope of construction GHG emissions adopted by the assessment 2 Graphic 9.2.2: Total GHG emissions from construction 12 Graphic 9.2.3: GHG emissions from construction by component (DCO Project without mitigation) 13 Graphic 9.2.4: GHG emissions from construction transport by activity 14



1. INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 This appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for

construction of the DCO Project. GHG emissions have been quantified for material

use, transport and on-site plant activities. It details the:

1. Scope of the quantification

2. Methodology followed

3. Assumptions and limitations

4. Results.

1.1.2 This appendix presents GHG emissions for the period 2022 to 2050 for one

modelled scenario, the DCO Project without mitigation, a three runway scenario,

without environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical

infrastructure of the preferred masterplan.

1.1.3 Note that, unlike the other carbon sub-aspects, no future baseline scenario is

presented for construction GHG emissions, as all currently consented

development is scheduled for completion before 2022.

1.1.4 A further scenario, the DCO Project with mitigation, as required by the Airports

National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for

construction for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR).

Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases for comment and feedback, although at this stage of the DCO

Project it has not been possible to assess their effects. The DCO Project with

mitigation scenario including the full suite of environmental measures will therefore

be fully assessed and reported in the Environmental Statement (ES).

1.1.5 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects from

construction GHG emissions. A preliminary assessment of likely significant effects

aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9:

Carbon and greenhouse gases.



2. SCOPE

2.1.1 The scope of GHG emissions considered by the construction assessment is

described in this section.

2.1.2 Construction GHG emissions have been considered from a ‘cradle-to-completed-

construction’ perspective. This is the sum of GHG emissions covering extraction of

raw and primary materials, their manufacture and refinement into products and

construction materials, associated transport and supply logistics, and construction

site works.

2.1.3 Graphic 9.2.1 illustrates the different construction phases included within the GHG

assessment. Table 9.2.1 lists out the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions

assessment within each of the key construction phases. Land use change has not

been included the PEIR GHG assessment but will be part of the ES. Land use

change emissions are not expected to have a material contribution to the overall

construction footprint due to the urban nature of the land within the draft DCO

limits.

Graphic 9.2.1: Scope of construction GHG emissions adopted by the assessment

Table 9.2.1: Construction GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment

Activity Effect

The manufacture and

production of

construction material

GHG emissions associated with the manufacturing of construction materials

(for example, concrete and steel). GHG emissions will be associated with the

extraction or mining of resources and any primary and secondary processing

or manufacturing. The creation of new assets and changes to existing assets

will result in have corresponding indirect GHG emissions.

Construction material

transport

and worker

transportation and

logistics

GHG emissions associated with vehicles used for the delivery of construction

materials to site, removal of construction waste and construction staff travel.

These activities will likely use vehicles with internal combustion engines and

therefore lead to GHG emissions.



Activity Effect

Construction site

works

GHG emissions associated with construction site works relate to the fuel and

electricity used by on-site plant and equipment during construction.

Construction related activities include fuel used to power heavy machinery like

diggers and tracked excavators, or electricity to provide lighting and heating for

construction site cabins. There will also be the need for temporary worker

accommodation, lighting and power which will lead to GHG emissions

associated with energy and water consumption.

Land use change (to

be assessed in the ES)

The majority of land use change will take place during the excavation and

construction phase of the DCO Project, where existing land use types (such as

grassland) may be permanently lost to allow for the DCO Project. The land use

change quantification will capture GHG emissions associated with the following

impacts:

1. Where existing ‘carbon sinks’, such as grassland or forested land, are

lost to allow for the DCO Project, stored carbon will be released

2. New green spaces, provided as part of landscaping and biodiversity

mitigation, will act to sequester carbon.



3. QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY

3.1 GHG emissions quantification

3.1.1 This section describes the method used to quantify GHG emissions associated

with construction (‘construction GHG emissions’) of the DCO Project.

3.1.2 A life cycle assessment (LCA) approach has been adopted in line with the

principles set out in BS EN 15978:2011 (November 2011) and PAS 2080:2016

(May 2016), capturing both direct and indirect emissions associated with

construction. A ‘cradle to completed construction’ GHG emissions quantification

has been undertaken for the DCO Project.

3.1.3 The quantification of construction GHG emissions is based on DCO Project data.

Where this information has not been available, industry-wide GHG emissions

assessment guidance information, such as Royal Institution of Chartered

Surveyors (RICS) Whole Life Carbon Assessment for the Built Environment

(RICS, 2017) has been used to inform assumptions on type and specification of

construction materials.

3.1.4 Table 9.2.2 provides more detail into the methodology by project parameter.

Table 9.2.2: Detailed methodology

Project parameter Methodology description

Manufacture and production of construction materials

GHG emissions associated with the manufacturing and production of construction

materials are referred to as embodied emissions. These typically include the effect

associated with the extraction of raw materials, their transportation to plants or

factories and any primary and secondary manufacturing processes necessary to

produce a finished product (for example, reinforced concrete blocks). GHG

emissions that capture these stages of manufacturing and production are referred to

as ‘cradle-to-gate’ emissions.

GHG emissions have been derived from projections of asset footprints (m2)

requirements for each construction material. The weight (tonnes) or volume (m3) of

construction material has been estimated by applying normalisation factors (for

example weight (t) of concrete per volume (m3) of concrete required for a terminal

building (t/m3). The complete list of normalisation factors is presented in Appendix

9.2: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Construction, Annex A.

The construction GHG quantification is based on assets (for example runway,

taxiways terminals, stands and roads) which reflect the current stage in the

evolution of the DCO Project’s design. Although the list of assets that need to be

built are fixed, the phasing (start and completion of construction) is subject to

change. Narrative text describing the latest construction phasing was used to profile

the overall construction GHG quantification.




GHG emission factors have been sourced from the Inventory of Carbon and Energy

(ICE) database (January 2011, 2019) for the majority of construction materials.

Appendix 9.2: Annex B presents the GHG emissions factors used in the

assessment.

In line with adopting a reasonable worst-case scenario, improvements in the

manufacturing processes for steel and concrete (which result in decreased GHG

emissions) have been modelled over the assessment period. Consequently,

different GHG emissions factors have been used each year of the assessment.

Wet Lean Concrete (WLC) and Pavement Quality Concrete (PQC) have been

specified for runways, taxiways, aircraft stands and other hardstanding areas. Either

reinforced concrete C40/50, 25% cement replacement1 or reinforced concrete

C32/40, 25% cement replacement has been used for all other assets, including

tunnels and terminal buildings. Efficiency improvements (62% improvement by 2050

based on 1990 levels) in the manufacturing of concrete have been applied over the

assessment period in line with the Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement

(February 2013). Refer to Table 9.2.16 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B for the complete

list of concrete GHG emissions factors applied in the construction GHG

quantification.

The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute (June 2013) has modelled three

efficiency improvement projections in steel manufacturing (base case, reasonable

case and stretch case). The reasonable case projection applies a 6% efficiency

improvement in steel manufacturing between 2010 and 2050. Table 9.2.17 of

Appendix 9.2: Annex B presents the complete list of steel related GHG emissions

factors applied.

Equation 1 summarises how the construction GHG emissions have been derived:

Equation 1: Construction emissions

QSR x NF x GHGF = CO2e

where

QSR = Quantity surveyor rate

NF = Normalisation factor

GHGF = GHG emissions factor

CO2e = GHG emissions

1 Concrete is typically made up of water, aggregates and cement and/or cement replacement. The proportions of each dictates the concrete strength and use.




Construction

material transport

The number of vehicle trips delivering construction material to site annually and

distances travelled by the construction delivery vehicles are based on the logistics

strategy. Equation 2 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for the transport

of construction material to site:

Equation 2: Material transport emissions

NoV x Dist x GHGF = CO2e

where

NoV = Number of vehicle movements

Dist = average trip distance

GHGF = GHG emissions factor


GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (July 2018) and are shown in

Table 9.2.18 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B. The proportion of vehicles using petrol,

diesel or electricity has been sourced from the Department for Transport (DfT) (May

2018).

Construction

waste

The transport and disposal of construction waste from site is based on construction

waste forecasts of construction waste diverted from landfill and the quantities of

construction waste disposed of at landfill.

Equation 3 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for construction waste:

Equation 3: Construction waste emissions

CW x GHGF = CO2e

where

CW = Quantity of construction waste

GHGF = GHG emissions factor (direct and indirect emissions)



Table 9.2.19 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.

Mass haul

The quantification of GHG emissions associated with mass haul is based on

Heathrow analysis and includes the transport of waste arising from cut/fill

operations to form the expanded operational Airport and for off-site components,

demolition of existing buildings and infrastructure, and on-site borrow pits.

Equation 4 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for site haul:




Equation 4: Mass haul emissions

NoV x Dist x GHGF = CO2e

where

NoV = Number of vehicle movements






Construction

worker

transportation

The quantification of construction worker transportation related GHG emissions is

based on the logistics strategy and provides number of workers required for

construction.

Equation 5 summarises how GHG emissions associated with transport and supply

related construction activity have been assessed:

Equation 5: Construction worker transportation emissions

NC x Dist x GHGF = CO2e

where

NC = Number of construction workers




GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (August 2017) and are

shown in Table 9.2.21 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.

Construction site

works

GHG emissions associated with construction site works relate to the fuel and

electricity used by on-site plant and equipment during construction. Construction

related activities include fuel used to power heavy machinery like diggers and

tracked excavators, or electricity to provide lighting and heating for construction site

cabins.

GHG emissions associated with construction site works have been derived from

monthly plant and equipment capital cost projections. The total number of plant and

equipment on-site per month is estimated based upon this preliminary data.

GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (January 2018) and align

with the Electricity Market Reform (July 2013) and are shown in Table 9.2.22 and





Equation 6 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for diesel and electrically

powered plant and equipment respectively:

Equation 6: Site works emissions

Diesel plant emissions: NoPE x DFpD x WDpM x GHGF = CO2e

Electric plant emissions: NoPE x kW x HrspM x GHGF = CO2e

where

NoPE = Number of plant equipment

DFpD = diesel fuel use per day

kW = Average kilowatt power rating of electric plant equipment

WDpM = working days per month

HrspM = average working hours per month



Land use change

(to be assessed at

ES)

The land use change quantification will capture GHG emissions associated with the

following impacts:

1. Where existing ‘carbon sinks’, such as grassland or forested land, are lost

to allow for the DCO Project, stored carbon will be released

2. New green spaces, provided as part of landscaping and biodiversity

mitigation, will act to sequester carbon.

Existing land uses will be mapped and respective areas (m2) assessed under the

current baseline (2017) conditions. Changes to the existing land use because of the

DCO Project will be assessed and resulting GHG emissions. For example, where

previously existing grassland is permanently lost and replaced by a ‘built’ asset,

such as a road or building, the carbon emissions sequestrated (kgCO2/m2) over the

grassland’s lifetime are assumed to be released to the atmosphere. Alternatively,

where new green space is added the potential carbon sequestration rate

(kgCO2/m2/year) of the land type will be assessed over the assessment period

(2022-2050).

GHG emissions factors are sourced from Ostle, N.J et al. (2009).



4. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS

4.1.1 Table 9.2.3 presents the assumptions related to the assessment of the DCO

Project without mitigation scenario.

Table 9.2.3: Assumptions for assessment of construction GHG emissions

Project

parameter

Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the DCO Project without

mitigation scenario

Construction

material

selection

In the absence of detailed information on the type and specification of construction materials

at this early stage of design, the following assumptions have been applied to the

quantification:

1. Concrete surfacing: Pavement Quality Concrete and Wet Lean Concrete

2. Reinforced concrete in buildings: RC 32/40, 20% cement replacement

3. Reinforced concrete for: RC 32/40, 20% cement replacement

4. Steel: UK typical, EU 59% recycled content

5. Cladding: Aluminium

6. Roofing: Asphalt

7. Road surfaces: mix of Aggregate and Asphalt

These are considered to align with standard industry practice and guidance, such as RICS

Whole Life Carbon Assessment for the Built Environment (RICS, 2017). As the design

progresses and more detailed information on the type and specification of construction

materials is provided, the reasonable worst case for each construction material will be

refined.

Vehicle use Transport of construction material carbon emissions assume the use of a rigid heavy goods

vehicle (HGV) with load capacity of 17 tonnes and greater. This is considered to be

representative of a large construction project with large quantities of construction material

movements.

Transport of construction workforce to site assumes travel by local bus and private car.

Mass haul assumes all movements use an articulated truck with load capacity of 33 tonnes or

greater.

Transport

distance

Assumptions for transportation distances have been informed by Heathrow analysis

undertaken when developing the logistics strategy. For the purposes of GHG emissions

quantification these assumptions are considered to be a reasonable worst case.

76% of construction material is assumed to be transported to site from the North-West of

England (350 km). 24% of construction material is assumed to be transported from the South-

East of England (130 km).

40% of construction workforce are assumed to travel by public transport (assumed as bus at

this stage of assessment). 60% of construction workforce are assumed to travel by private



Project

parameter

Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the DCO Project without

mitigation scenario

car with an occupancy of 1.5 passengers per car. Distance travelled to site has been

assumed as 20 km for all construction workforce.

On-site plant

use

The following assumptions have been used to assess the impact of on-site construction plant

activities on GHG emissions.

1. The diesel and electric plant equipment mix over the duration of construction is

initially assumed as a 10% electric / 90% diesel split and changes to 40% electric /

60% diesel by 2026

2. Electricity consumption rate of electric plant equipment assumed as 237.4 kW/day

3. Diesel plant equipment assumed an average energy consumption rate of 200

litres/day.

These assumptions on plant are based on the professional judgement of the DCO Project’s

delivery team and are considered to represent industry standard practice and incorporate

conservative future expected efficiencies on vehicle use mix.

UK grid

electricity

The quantification has assumed that the carbon intensity of UK grid electricity will reduce in

line with Government grid decarbonisation projections. This is considered as a reasonable

worst case as it is in line with conservative future efficiencies observed from Government and

policy trends to 2050.

4.1.2 There are a number of limitations to the GHG assessment pertaining to the

following:

1. As the DCO Project design is continually developing and evolving, the results

of the GHG quantification is likely to change. The GHG quantification will be

updated in order to reflect changes to design

2. At this stage of design development, detailed and accurate data is limited in

some areas. For example:

a. Due to lack of accurate and detailed information on construction materials

specification for each design element, assumptions on the type of

construction material used is based on best available information and

professional judgement

b. In the absence of information on construction plant equipment, assumptions

on energy consumption have been made based on professional judgement.



5. QUANTIFICATION RESULTS

5.1.1 The results of the GHG quantification (DCO Project without mitigation scenario)

are presented in summary form for the scope set out in Section 2 as:

1. Total construction GHG emissions from all activities over the construction

phase

2. Construction transport GHG emissions over the construction phase. These

results are referred to in the surface access assessment in Appendix 9.4.

5.1.2 The results are also tabulated to present total annual emissions for core and

additional assessment years.

5.1.3 Appendix 9.2: Annex C contains detailed results of the total construction GHG

emissions by activity as well as a detailed breakdown of the GHG emissions

associated with each construction material.

5.1.4 The DCO Project with mitigation scenario has not been reported quantitively for

construction for PEIR. At this stage the environmental measures have not been

designed and developed in sufficient detail to allow quantification of their beneficial

effects. The DCO Project with mitigation scenario will be fully assessed and

reported in the final ES.

5.2 Total construction emissions

5.2.1 Graphic 9.2.2 shows the total GHG emissions for the DCO Project without

mitigation scenario.



Graphic 9.2.2: Total GHG emissions from construction

5.2.2 Table 9.2.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all construction activities for

key milestone years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases,

Section 9.4, including the year of maximum GHG emissions.

Table 9.2.4: Annual GHG emissions from construction

Scenario

Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)

Base

year

First year of

assessment

Year of

maximum

release of

first

phase of

capacity

First full

year of

third

runway

operations

Year of

minimum

ANPS

capacity

Year of

maximum

capacity

Year of

maximum

GHG

emissions

2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)

DCO Project

without

mitigation

0.14 0.48 0.54 0.14 0.05 0.00 0.64

(2023)

5.2.3 The cumulative GHG emissions for the modelled scenario from 2022 to 2050

result in 3.70 MtCO2e.



5.2.4 Graphic 9.2.3 shows the total GHG emissions associated with each component of

construction for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. This shows a peak in

construction material usage in 2024.

Graphic 9.2.3: GHG emissions from construction by component (DCO Project without mitigation)

5.2.5 Appendix 9.2: Annex C includes the complete set of total GHG emissions

associated with construction results for the DCO Project without mitigation

scenario.

5.3 Construction transport

1. Graphic 9.2.4 shows the GHG emissions associated with construction

transport activities for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. These

results are referred to in the surface access assessment in Appendix 9.4.



Graphic 9.2.4: GHG emissions from construction transport by activity




Table 9.2.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from construction

Term Definition

ATM Air transport movement


Carbon Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions

CO2 Carbon dioxide


DfT Department for Transport

EIA Environmental impact assessment

EU European Union


HGV Heavy goods vehicle

kgCO2e Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent

LCA Life-cycle assessment

MPA Mineral Products Association

MtCO2 Million tonnes of carbon dioxide


PQC Pavement Quality Concrete

RICS Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

UK United Kingdom

WebTAG Web-based Transport Analysis Guidance

WLC Wet Lean Concrete

WTT Well-to-tank (referring to emissions during the fuel supply chain)



7. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Full text reference In-text reference

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BEIS, August 2017

BEIS. (January 2018). Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671187/Updated_energy_and_emissions_projections_2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

BEIA, January 2018

BEIS. (July 2018). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2018. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2018 [Accessed 13 February 2019].

BEIS, July 2018

BS EN 15978:2011. (November 2011). Sustainability of construction works. Assessment of environmental performance of buildings. Calculation method. [online]. Available at: www.bsigroup.com [Accessed 13 February 2019].

BS EN 15978:2011

Climate Change Act. (2008). [online]. Available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Climate Change Act 2008

Department for Transport (DfT). (May 2018). Transport Analysis Guidance, WebTAG A1.3.9: Proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag [Accessed 13 February 2019].

DfT, May 2018

EIA Regulations (2017). The Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017. [online]. Available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/571/pdfs/uksi_20170571_en.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

EIA Regulations 2017

Electricity Market Reform. (July 2013). Electricity Market Reform – ensuring electricity security of supply and promoting investment in low-carbon generation. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225981/emr_delivery_plan_ia.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Electricity Market Reform, July 2013

Green Construction Board. (March 2013). Low Carbon Routemap for the UK Built Environment. [online]. Available at: https://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Green Construction Board, March 2013

ICE database (2019). University of Bath Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE) Version 3.0.

ICE database, 2019

ICE database. (January 2011). University of Bath Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE) Version 2.0. [online]. Available at: http://www.circularecology.com/embodied-energy-and-carbon-

ICE database, January 2011

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http://www.bsigroup.com/

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/571/pdfs/uksi_20170571_en.pdf

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/571/pdfs/uksi_20170571_en.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225981/emr_delivery_plan_ia.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225981/emr_delivery_plan_ia.pdf

https://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf

https://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf

http://www.circularecology.com/embodied-energy-and-carbon-footprint-database.html#.XGb15Oj7RaR




footprint-database.html#.XGb15Oj7RaR [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement. (February 2013). UK Cement Industry 2050 Greenhouse Gas Strategy. [online]. Available at: https://cement.mineralproducts.org/documents/MPA_Cement_2050_Strategy.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement, February 2013

Ostle, N.J., Levy, P.E. Evans, C.D. and Smith, P. (2009). UK land use and soil carbon sequestration. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre. Land Use Policy, 26(1), pp. S274-S283.

Ostle, N.J et al., 2009

PAS 2080:2016. (May 2016). Carbon management in infrastructure. [online]. Available at: www.bsigroup.com [Accessed 13 February 2019].

PAS 2080:2016

RICS. (November 2017). Whole life carbon assessment for the built environment - Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. [online]. Available at: https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/news/whole-life-carbon-assessment-for-the--built-environment-november-2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

RICS, November 2017

The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute VDEh. (June 2013). Steel’s Contribution to a Low-Carbon Europe 2050. Technical and Economic Analysis of the sector’s CO2 Abatement Potential. [online]. Available at: https://www.stahl-online.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Schlussbericht-Studie-Low-carbon-Europe-2050_-Mai-20131.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute VDEh., June 2013

http://www.circularecology.com/embodied-energy-and-carbon-footprint-database.html#.XGb15Oj7RaR

https://cement.mineralproducts.org/documents/MPA_Cement_2050_Strategy.pdf

https://cement.mineralproducts.org/documents/MPA_Cement_2050_Strategy.pdf

http://www.bsigroup.com/

https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/news/whole-life-carbon-assessment-for-the--built-environment-november-2017.pdf



https://www.stahl-online.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Schlussbericht-Studie-Low-carbon-Europe-2050_-Mai-20131.pdf




Appendix 9.2-A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX A: STANDARD NORMALISATION FACTORS

Table 9.2.6: Standard normalisation factors: Main Buildings

Facilities

Concrete Steel sections

& beams Cladding Roofing

m3/m2 GFA t/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA

MAIN BUILDINGS

Terminals 1.149 0.212 0.101 0.274

Piers 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Multi Story Car Parks

0.617 0.046 0.038 0.274

Table 9.2.7: Standard normalisation factors: Ancillary Buildings

Facilities

Concrete Steel sections & beams

Cladding Roofing

m3/m2 GFA t/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA

ANCILLARY BUILDINGS

Buildings 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Car Rental 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Cargo 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Depot 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Fire station 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Hanger 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Hotel 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Industrial building

1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Maintenance Base

1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Office 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Police station 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Sanitation Building

1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274

Workshop 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274



Table 9.2.8: Standard normalisation factors: Surfaces

Facilities

Concrete External Works

m3/m2 GFA m3/m2 GFA

SURFACES

Stands 0.5 -

Taxiways 0.6 -

Runways 1.2 -

Car Parks 0.35 -

Other pavements/ landscape - 0.35

Table 9.2.9: Standard normalisation factors: Road Structure

Depth Density Cross section

m t/m3 m

ROAD STRUCTURE

Type 2 capping layer

0.35 2.15 -

Type 1 subbase 0.15 2.2 -

Macadam; base course

0.12 2.2 -

Macadam; binder course

0.06 2.58 -

Macadam; wearing course

0.03 2.6 -

D4MU - - 31.7

S4MU - - 22.6

S2MU - - 15.3

S3MU - - 19

S1MU - - 11.7

D2AU - - 17.1

D3AU - - 24.4

S2AU - - 17.1

D1AU - - 7.3



Table 9.2.10: Standard normalisation factors: Excavation

Tunnel

m3/m3

EXCAVATION Excavation & disposal, including contaminated

1.61

Table 9.2.11: Standard normalisation factors: Waste

m3/100m2 t/m2

WASTE

Demolition Waste (Civil Engineering)

61.7 0.192

Commercial Offices - 0.092

Industrial Buildings - 0.144

Leisure - 0.042

Table 9.2.12: Standard normalisation factors: River

Cross section

m2

RIVER

Excavation 80

Concrete works 44

Table 9.2.13: Standard normalisation factors: Tunnel Fit-Out

m3/m3

TUNNEL FIT-OUT

Track

0.2 Overhead electric conductor rails

Ventilation

Drainage systems



Table 9.2.14: Standard normalisation factors: Building Fit-Out

M&E finishes Concrete Cladding Roofing

m2/m2 t/m3 t/m2 t/m2

BUILDING FIT-OUT

3 2.5 0.05 0.1


Appendix 9.2.B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX B: CONSTRUCTION GHG EMISSIONS FACTORS

Manufacture and production of construction materials

Table 9.2.15: Construction material GHG emission factors: Cladding, Roofing, Fit-Out/MEP and Road Surfaces

Construction material GHG emissions factor Unit Data source Assumptions

Cladding 9.16 kgCO2e/kg ICE database

v2.0 (2011)

Aluminium assumed

for all cladding

Roofing 0.058 kgCO2e/kg ICE database

v3.0 (2019)

Asphalt assumed for

all roofing

Fit-Out/MEP 80 kgCO2e/m2 Based on

professional

judgement

Representative of

Grade A office space.

Applied to all Fit-

Out/MEP

Road Surfaces 0.2084 kgCO2e/kg ICE database

v2.0 (2011)

Mix of aggregates and

asphalt assumed for

road surfaces

Table 9.2.16: Construction material GHG emission factors: Concrete

Construction material Year GHG emissions factor Unit Source Assumptions

Concrete surfacing 2018 0.25 tCO2e/m3 ICE

database

v3.0

(2019)

GHG

emissions

factors used

for runways,

stands,

taxiways and

other

hardstanding

areas

2019 0.25

2020 0.25

2021 0.24

2022 0.24

2023 0.24

2024 0.23

2025 0.23

2026 0.23

2027 0.22

2028 0.22

2029 0.22

2030 0.21

2031 0.21




2032 0.20

2033 0.20

2034 0.20

2035 0.19

2036 0.19

2037 0.19

2038 0.18

2039 0.18

2040 0.18

2041 0.17

2042 0.17

2043 0.16

2044 0.16

2045 0.16

2046 0.15

2047 0.15

2048 0.15

2049 0.14

2050 0.14

Concrete Structures:

Reinforced Concrete,

C40/50, 25% cement

replacement

2018 0.14 kgCO2e/kg ICE

database

v3.0

(2019)

GHG

emissions

factors used

for river

diversions,

tunnels and

other major

civil structures

2019 0.14

2020 0.14

2021 0.14

2022 0.13

2023 0.13

2024 0.13

2025 0.13

2026 0.13

2027 0.12

2028 0.12

2029 0.12

2030 0.12

2031 0.12




2032 0.11

2033 0.11

2034 0.11

2035 0.11

2036 0.11

2037 0.10

2038 0.10

2039 0.10

2040 0.10

2041 0.10

2042 0.09

2043 0.09

2044 0.09

2045 0.09

2046 0.08

2047 0.08

2048 0.08

2049 0.08

2050 0.08

Concrete Structures:

Reinforced Concrete,

C32/40, 25% cement

replacement

2018 0.12 kgCO2e/kg ICE

database

v3.0

(2019)

GHG

emissions

factors used

for buildings,

utilities and

other minor

civil structures

2019 0.12

2020 0.12

2021 0.11

2022 0.11

2023 0.11

2024 0.11

2025 0.11

2026 0.11

2027 0.11

2028 0.11

2029 0.10

2030 0.10

2031 0.10




2032 0.10

2033 0.10

2034 0.10

2035 0.09

2036 0.09

2037 0.09

2038 0.09

2039 0.09

2040 0.08

2041 0.08

2042 0.08

2043 0.08

2044 0.08

2045 0.08

2046 0.07

2047 0.07

2048 0.07

2049 0.07

2050 0.07

Table 9.2.17: Construction material GHG emissions factors: Steel

Construction

material

Year GHG factor Unit Source

Steel

2018 1,263 kgCO2/tonne

The European

Steel Association

2019 1,260

2020 1,256

2021 1,252

2022 1,249

2023 1,245

2024 1,241

2025 1,238

2026 1,234

2027 1,230

2028 1,226

2029 1,223

2030 1,219

2031 1,215



Construction

material

Year GHG factor Unit Source

2032 1,212

2033 1,208

2034 1,204

2035 1,201

2036 1,197

2037 1,193

2038 1,189

2039 1,186

2040 1,182

2041 1,178

2042 1,175

2043 1,171

2044 1,167

2045 1,164

2046 1,160

2047 1,156

2048 1,152

2049 1,149

2050 1,145

Construction material, worker transportation and logistics

Table 9.2.18: Transport – materials to site GHG emissions factors

Vehicle GHG emissions factor Unit Source

Artic HGV (> 33

tonnes) / average

loaded vehicle

0.944 kgCO2e/km

BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion

Factors for Company Reporting, 2018

Diesel Van: Class II

(1.74 to 3.5 tonnes) 0.275 kgCO2e/km

Table 9.2.19: Transport – construction waste GHG emissions factors

GHG emissions

factor

Unit Source Assumptions

Average

construction

– Recovery

(Open-loop)

1.37 kgCO2e/tonne

BEIS UK Government

GHG Conversion

Factors for Company

Reporting, 2018

Average

construction

- Landfill 92.7 kgCO2e/tonne

The GHG emissions factor is based on

the average of the GHG emissions

factors for each construction material

has been used.



Table 9.2.20: Mass Haul GHG emissions factors

Vehicle

GHG

emissions

factor

Unit Source

Artic HGV (> 33

tonnes) / 100% loaded

vehicle

0.944 kgCO2e/km

BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for

Company Reporting, 2018

Table 9.2.21: Transport – construction workers GHG emissions factors

Mode Year

GHG emissions factor


Bus (Local bus) 2017 to 2050

0.15184 kgCO2e per passenger.km

BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting, 2017

Assumes no improvement / shift to electric from 2017

Car

2017 0.227842

kgCO2e per km

Based on year-specific WebTAG proportion of electric, diesel, petrol.

2018 0.22757

2019 0.227277

2020 0.22679

2021 0.22607

2022 0.225221

2023 0.224192

2024 0.222977

2025 0.221721

2026 0.220439

2027 0.219131

2028 0.217752

2029 0.21632

2030 0.214837

2031 0.213427

2032 0.212096

2033 0.210851

2034 0.209667

2035 0.208526

2036 0.20745

2037 0.206388

2038 0.205357

2039 0.204325

2040 0.203282

2041 0.202023

2042 0.200902

2043 0.199904



Mode Year

GHG emissions factor


2044 0.199012

2045 0.198205

2046 0.197477

2047 0.196834

2048 0.196267

2049 0.195769

2050 0.195323

Construction site works

Table 9.2.22: Construction plant activities GHG emissions factors: diesel powered plant

Mode

GHG

emissions

factor

Unit Source

Assumptions

Gas Oil (including

WTT) 3.60

kgCO2e/litre

of diesel

BEIS UK Government

GHG Conversion Factors

for Company Reporting,

2018

Assumes no efficiency

improvement to diesel

powered plants

Table 9.2.23: Construction plant activities GHG emissions factors: electric powered plant

Year

GHG

emissions

factor

Unit Source

Assumptions

2017 213.4

gCO2e/kWh

BEIS Updated Energy and

Emissions Projections,

2017

Assumes electrically

powered plant reduce in

line with UK Government

grid decarbonisation

factors

2018 205.0

2019 194.7

2020 180.9

2021 170.9

2022 147.8

2023 144.3

2024 150.1

2025 140.8

2026 114.2

2027 119.4

2028 108.4

2029 96.1

2030 104.2

2031 95.5

2032 77.7

2033 74.5

2034 66.5

2035 55.0



Year

GHG

emissions

factor

Unit Source

Assumptions

2036 52.0

Emissions intensity

interpolated between 2036

and 2049

2037 50.0

2038 47.0

2039 44.0

2040 42.0

2041 39.0

2042 36.0

2043 34.0

2044 31.0

2045 29.0

2046 26.0

2047 23.0

2048 21.0

2049 18.0

2050 18.0

Electricity Market Reform

– ensuring electricity

security of supply and

promoting investment in

low-carbon generation,

July 2013


Appendix 9.2.C1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX C: CONSTRUCTION GHG EMISSIONS RESULTS TABLE

Table 9.2.24: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)

Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)

DCO Project without mitigation

Year

Construction

material

Construction plant activities

Transport - materials

to site

Transport -

construction worker

s

Transport - mass haul

& demolition

waste

Transport - constructio

n waste TOTAL

2022 0.218 0.156 0.098 0.008 0.00173 0.00050 0.482

2023 0.351 0.178 0.097 0.014 0.00173 0.00081 0.643

2024 0.352 0.129 0.076 0.014 0.00173 0.00081 0.573

2025 0.342 0.092 0.091 0.011 0.00173 0.00078 0.539

2026 0.209 0.049 0.065 0.008 0.00043 0.00048 0.331

2027 0.085 0.031 0.017 0.004 0.00000 0.00019 0.137

2028 0.028 0.013 0.004 0.002 0.00000 0.00006 0.047

2029 0.019 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.00001 0.00004 0.032

2030 0.030 0.011 0.004 0.001 0.00001 0.00007 0.047

2031 0.032 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.00001 0.00007 0.050

2032 0.039 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.00001 0.00009 0.063

2033 0.038 0.018 0.010 0.002 0.00001 0.00009 0.069

2034 0.035 0.022 0.009 0.001 0.00000 0.00008 0.068

2035 0.026 0.020 0.006 0.001 0.00000 0.00006 0.054

2036 0.034 0.024 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00008 0.067

2037 0.043 0.023 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00010 0.074

2038 0.044 0.025 0.007 0.001 0.00002 0.00010 0.077

2039 0.023 0.016 0.003 0.002 0.00002 0.00005 0.044

2040 0.005 0.009 0.003 0.001 0.00002 0.00001 0.018

2041 0.007 0.011 0.003 0.002 0.00002 0.00002 0.023

2042 0.017 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.038

2043 0.016 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.00000 0.00004 0.041

2044 0.014 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.00000 0.00003 0.037

2045 0.018 0.010 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00004 0.037

2046 0.019 0.007 0.007 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.036

2047 0.019 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.00000 0.00004 0.036

2048 0.018 0.007 0.007 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.035

2049 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.00000 0.00001 0.006





Year

Construction

material

Construction plant activities

Transport - materials

to site

Transport -

construction worker

s

Transport - mass haul

& demolition

waste

Transport - constructio

n waste TOTAL

2050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000

Cumulative Total

2.08 0.94 0.57 0.10 0.00746 0.00478 3.70

Table 9.2.25: Construction materials GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)

Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (tCO2e)


Year

Construction Materials

Concrete Steel Cladding Roofing Fit-Out Road Surface TOTAL

2022 0.024 0.034 0.012 0.0000 0.005 0.143 0.218

2023 0.059 0.046 0.019 0.0000 0.015 0.212 0.351

2024 0.129 0.030 0.027 0.0002 0.021 0.145 0.352

2025 0.129 0.065 0.024 0.0002 0.026 0.099 0.342

2026 0.072 0.069 0.007 0.0001 0.017 0.044 0.209

2027 0.014 0.036 0.032 0.0003 0.002 0.000 0.085

2028 0.007 0.013 0.004 0.0003 0.004 0.000 0.028

2029 0.007 0.007 0.002 0.0001 0.003 0.000 0.019

2030 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.030

2031 0.013 0.011 0.004 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.032

2032 0.015 0.011 0.005 0.0001 0.005 0.004 0.039

2033 0.012 0.006 0.006 0.0001 0.006 0.008 0.038

2034 0.009 0.004 0.012 0.0001 0.004 0.005 0.035

2035 0.007 0.004 0.010 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.026

2036 0.006 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.034

2037 0.016 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.043

2038 0.017 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.044

2039 0.008 0.005 0.005 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.023



Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (tCO2e)


Year

Construction Materials

Concrete Steel Cladding Roofing Fit-Out Road Surface TOTAL

2040 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.0001 0.000 0.002 0.005

2041 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.007

2042 0.007 0.003 0.004 0.0000 0.001 0.002 0.017

2043 0.011 0.002 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.016

2044 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.014

2045 0.011 0.001 0.003 0.0000 0.001 0.001 0.018

2046 0.011 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.019

2047 0.010 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.019

2048 0.010 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.018

2049 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.003

2050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000

TOTAL 0.627 0.394 0.237 0.0025 0.152 0.671 2.085

Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport

APPENDIX 9.3

AIR TRANSPORT



CONTENTS

1. Introduction 1

2. Scope 2

2.1 The types of GHG emissions assessed 2

2.2 GHG generating activities and spatial scope 3

2.3 Temporal scope and disaggregation 4


3.1 GHG emissions quantification 5 1: Flight activity 5 2: Aircraft fuel consumption 6 3: Operational efficiency factors 7 4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factor 7 Overall calculation 8



5.1 Total air transport emissions 10

5.2 Domestic flights 14

5.3 International flights 15


7. Bibliography 18

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 9.3.1: Air transport GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.3.2: Assumptions for assessment of air transport emissions 9 Table 9.3.3: Annual CO2 emissions from air transport 11 Table 9.3.4: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from air transport 16 Table 9.3.5: Technology adoption methodology 1 Table 9.3.6: Likely mid-point CO2 emissions for nominal range forecast 0 Table 9.3.7: Aircraft mapping table 4 Table 9.3.8: Domestic and international emissions breakdown 1 Table 9.3.9: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown 2 Table 9.3.10: Tradeable emissions 3 Table 9.3.11: International and domestic emissions breakdown 5



Table 9.3.12: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown 6 Table 9.3.13: Tradeable emissions 7

TABLE OF GRAPHICS

Graphic 9.3.1: Calculation of air transport emissions 5 Equation 1: CO2 emissions calculation for air transport 8 Graphic 9.3.2: Total annual CO2 emissions from air transport: 11 Graphic 9.3.3: Cumulative emissions (2022-2050) for the two scenarios 12 Graphic 9.3.4: Air transport emissions by activity (future baseline scenario) 13 Graphic 9.3.5: Air transport emissions by activity (DCO Project without mitigation scenario) 13 Graphic 9.3.6: Emissions from domestic flights 14 Graphic 9.3.7: Emissions from international flights 15


Appendix 9.3.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from

air transport. It covers the:




4. Results.

1.1.2 It presents CO2 emissions based on two scenarios that are modelled for the period

2022 to 2050:

1. Future Baseline: Heathrow continues to be capped at 480,000 air transport

movements (ATMs) with two runways

2. DCO Project without mitigation: three runway scenario, without

environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical

infrastructure of the preferred masterplan. As set out in Chapter 9: Carbon

and greenhouse gases, this scenario includes for example, efficient airfield

design to minimise taxiing distances and delays thereby minimising aircraft fuel

burn and associated emissions. It also accounts for future improvements in

aircraft fuel efficiency consistent with industry projections.

1.1.3 A further scenario, the DCO Project with mitigation, as required by the Airports

National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for air

transport for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR).

Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases for comment and feedback, although at this stage of the

Project it has not been possible to assess their effects. The DCO Project with

mitigation scenario will therefore be fully assessed and reported in the

Environmental Statement (ES).

1.1.4 Note that air transport assesses CO2 only, not all greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions, this is explained in Section 2: Scope. Therefore, where GHG

emissions are indicated in this Appendix, these are CO2 emissions only.


the CO2 emissions from air transport. A preliminary assessment of likely significant

effects aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9:

Carbon and greenhouse gases.



2. SCOPE

2.1.1 Table 9.3.1 lists the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions assessment of air

transport.

Table 9.3.1: Air transport GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment

Activity Effect

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from

air transport movements covering:

1) Climb, Cruise and Descent

(CCD) from Heathrow departures

2) The landing and take-off (LTO)

cycle at Heathrow including use

of Auxiliary Power Units (APUs).

CO2 emissions associated with air transport movements occur

due to the consumption of fuel by aircraft whilst on the ground

and in flight.

Total emissions depend on the number of transport movements,

the distance travelled by each movement (including factors that

influence emissions over the LTO cycle and use of APUs), the

fuel efficiency of the aircraft flown, operational factors and the

type of fuel consumed.

2.1.2 The scope described is detailed further in terms of:

1. The types of GHG emissions that are assessed

2. The GHG generating activities and their spatial scope

3. The temporal scope and disaggregation of results.

2.1 The types of GHG emissions assessed

2.1.1 Aircraft emit carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as other emissions such as nitrogen

oxides (NOx), particulates, sulphates and water vapour (typically referred to as

non-CO2 emissions1). These non-CO2 emissions are considered by the

Department for Transport (DfT) to potentially have a radiative forcing effect

(contribute to climate change) if emitted at altitude.

2.1.2 There is, however, no scientific consensus on the effect of non-CO2 emissions at

altitude at present. The advice of the CCC (Committee on Climate Change) is to

consider only CO2 emissions from air transportation (irrespective if they are

emitted on the ground or at altitude) until there is improved scientific evidence

(CCC, 2012; CCC,2009).

1 Some of these non-CO2 emissions if emitted at ground level, for instance NOx, are considered to be GHG for the purposes of the Climate Change Act although some, such as water vapour, are not.



2.1.3 This advice has been adopted by the DfT (DfT, 2017) and has informed its policy

on aviation and climate change and formed the basis of the assessment produced

in support of the ANPS.

2.1.4 The recently published consultation draft of the Aviation Strategy (DfT, 2018)

reconfirms this position. Paragraph 3.95 of the Aviation Strategy states that:

The government proposes: to keep non-CO2 emissions under review and reassess

the UK’s policy position as more evidence becomes available.

2.1.5 Therefore, this assessment (unlike the other sub-aspects) only considers CO2

emissions from air transport.

2.2 GHG generating activities and spatial scope

2.2.1 In terms of the GHG generating activities and the spatial scope of emissions to

consider the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the

UNFCCC) provides a recommended approach for reporting air transport emissions

at a country level (DfT, 2017).

2.2.2 This allocates departure CCD emissions (i.e. above 3000ft) and any LTO and APU

emissions (i.e., for arrivals and departures below 3000ft) to each country. This

avoids double counting emissions at a global scale when each country’s emissions

are totalled and is the approach adopted by the DfT in reporting of UK air transport

emissions. Taking each UK airport in turn it calculates the airport’s LTO (including

APU) and departure CCD emissions which when summed represent total UK air

transport emissions.

2.2.3 The same approach has therefore been taken by this assessment for air transport

emissions from Heathrow only.

2.2.4 The scope of activities reported for air transport therefore covers:

1. The LTO cycle at Heathrow, which includes emissions from arrivals and

departures of aircraft on the airfield and from take offs and landings up to

3000ft as well as emissions from APUs. This boundary is consistent with the

scope used by Chapter 7: Air quality and odour for air transport movements

(ATMs)

2. Departing flights above 3000ft, referred to as CCD. Emissions from arrivals

above 3000ft are accounted for by the country of the originating flight if an

international flight and of the originating UK airport if a domestic flight.



2.3 Temporal scope and disaggregation

2.3.1 The temporal scope for the assessment is consistent with the assessment years

detailed in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases and covers the period

from 2022 to 2050.

2.3.2 As required by the ANPS, CO2 emissions from air transport have been presented

on an annual basis, split into CO2 emissions from2:

1. Domestic flights (defined as all flights within the United Kingdom)

2. International flights

3. Flights subject to the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) which are considered

to be tradeable emissions3

4. The LTO (including use of APUs) and CCD components of the flight.

2 Total emissions are the sum of domestic and international or the sum of CCD and LTO. Tradeable emissions include both domestic and international flights. 3 This covers flights that fall within countries that belong to the European Economic Area (EEA).





3.1.1 The quantification of air transport CO2 emissions covers the LTO (including APU)

and CCD components as described in Section 2. The assumptions applied in the

methodology to ensure the assessment of a reasonable worst case are detailed in

Section 4: Assumptions and limitations.

3.1.2 The calculation of emissions has considered four key modelling inputs:

1. Flight activity

2. Aircraft fuel consumption

3. Operational efficiency factors

4. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factors.

Graphic 9.3.1 illustrates how these inputs have been combined to calculate air traffic

emissions.

Graphic 9.3.1: Calculation of air transport emissions

3.1.3 Each of these modelling inputs is detailed below.

1: Flight activity

3.1.4 The ATM forecast schedules have been produced by Heathrow and specify the

number, type and destinations of aircraft that are forecast to operate from

Heathrow. ATM forecast schedules have been produced for the Future Baseline

scenario for the years of 2022, 2024, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050, and



for the DCO Project scenario for the years of 2022 to 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040,

2045 and 2050.

3.1.5 The ATM forecast schedules are of ATMs and therefore exclude a small number

of movements (<0.5%) that are not associated with the transportation of goods

and or passengers, for example positioning, or test flights.

3.1.6 The LTO component of emissions depends on times in mode, that is, the length of

time that each aircraft spends in the various stages of the LTO cycle (approach,

landing roll, taxiing, take-off roll, initial climb and climb-out). For PEIR default times

for the standard ICAO LTO cycle as specified in EMEP/EEA (EEA, 2016) have

been used.

3.1.7 The CCD component of emissions depends on the distance flown. The

coordinates (latitude/longitude) of each destination airport in the forecast have

been obtained from publicly available databases, and the Great Circle Distance

(GCD) from Heathrow to each destination airport has been calculated from the

coordinate pairs using standard trigonometric formulae.

3.1.8 To account for the fact that aircraft often do not fly the exact GCD route, the

quantification has followed DfT guidance (DfT, 2017, p.48) which recommends

GCD ‘uplift factors’ that reflect:

“the latest evidence in inherent inefficiencies in air traffic control, flight paths and airspace.”

3.1.9 The GCD uplift factors that have been used are: 5% for short-haul and 6% for

long-haul and are considered to remain unchanged regardless of the scenario or

assessment year being modelled (DfT, 2017).

2: Aircraft fuel consumption

3.1.10 Aircraft fuel consumption rates have been derived from the European Monitoring

and Evaluation Program / European Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) guidebook

(EEA, 2016), formerly known as EMEP Corinair. The EEA and the UN’s Long-

Range Transboundary Air Pollution Project (LRTAP) produce the guidebook to

support the compilation of greenhouse gas inventories across Europe and across

market sectors.

3.1.11 The aviation chapter of the guidebook (EEA, 2016) recommends methodologies

for calculating CO2 emissions from air transport, with various ‘tiers’ or levels of

accuracy. Further detail is provided in supporting documentation produced by

Eurocontrol (Eurocontrol, 2016).

3.1.12 Data from the Tier 3A EMEP/EEA spreadsheet (EEA, 2016) has been used for this

assessment. The spreadsheet provides data on fuel consumption over the LTO

and CCD phases for aircraft types currently in operation for a range of distances

flown that has been derived from analysis of historic fuel consumption data held by



Eurocontrol. Fuel consumption from APU’s have been calculated based on

assessment of APU fuel flow rates and running times whilst on stand consistent

with the assessment completed in Chapter 7: Air quality and odour.

3.1.13 Aircraft types, engines and flight trajectories evolve over time and, therefore, the

EMEP/EEA spreadsheet is updated periodically. For this quantification the latest

available 2016 version of the EMEP/EEA spreadsheet has been used.

3.1.14 As noted, the EMEP/EEA spreadsheet includes fuel consumption data for aircraft

types that have been in operation and formed part of the historic fuel burn analysis

that informed the 2016 version of the EMEP/EEA database. Since the ATM

forecast schedules derived by Heathrow and used by this quantification extend out

to 2050 and include aircraft types that were not in operation at the time the 2016

EMEP/EEA data was compiled the ‘baseline’ EMEP/EEA data has been scaled to

account for expected fuel efficiency improvements as the fleet evolves into the

future, for example due to in production incremental changes over time (e.g. use of

winglets) and by replacement of existing aircraft variants with newer more fuel

efficient models. Appendix 9.3: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Air transport,

Annex A provides further detail.

3.1.15 The fuel burn per aircraft movement has been calculated using the Breguet range

equation4. This takes into account the uplifted GCD for the movement and fuel

burn data described above. Fuel burn is converted to CO2 assuming 100% use of

kerosene aviation fuel at this point in the calculation.

3: Operational efficiency factors

3.1.16 The quantification also takes into account operational efficiency improvements

related to likely future airline operational changes as well as potential for wider

airspace efficiency gains beyond those included in the EMEP/EEA data.

3.1.17 Section 4 provides further details on assumptions adopted for this factor.

4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factor

3.1.18 The CO2 produced from air transport is directly related to the type of fuel that is

burnt. The CO2 emission factor for kerosene is 3.15 kg CO2 per kg of fuel (DfT,

2018). The effective CO2 emission factor for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is

lower and depends on the type of feedstock employed, method of production and

any transportation requirements.

3.1.19 The DfT has conservatively assumed a minimum penetration of 5% SAF blend

with 50% lifecycle carbon saving (compared to kerosene) by 2050 (DfT, 2017).

4 The Breguet range equation is algebraically developed from fundamental aeronautics principles that define an aircraft’s range capability as a function of aircraft weights, speed, aerodynamic and engine efficiencies.



The impact of this on the CO2 emission factor for the blended fuel is to reduce it to

3.07 kg CO2 per kg of fuel blend burnt.

3.1.20 Higher blends of sustainable aviation fuel are anticipated by other actors. The

CCC has recently reconfirmed that a 10% blend by 2050 is feasible (CCC, 2018),

whilst UK industry sources consider blends of up to 40% by 2050 to be possible

(Sustainable Aviation Roadmap, 2016). Section 4 provides further details on

assumptions adopted for this factor in the assessment.

Overall calculation

3.1.21 In summary, the approach taken to calculate CO2 emissions associated with each

aircraft type/destination combination in the ATM forecast schedules is presented in

Equation 1.

Equation 1: CO2 emissions calculation for air transport

Air transport CO2 per aircraft type per annum to each destination = CO2 CCD + CO2 LTO where CO2 CCD = N × fCCD(d) x f Ops x K fuel CO2 LTO = N x fLTO x f Ops × K fuel

where N = number of movements of this aircraft type to this destination per year fCCD = fuel consumption for CCD for this aircraft type, for this uplifted route distance d d = the uplifted route distance (great circle distance multiplied by 1.05 for short-haul or 1.06 for long-haul) fLTO = fuel burn for LTO cycle including APU use for this aircraft type f Ops = Operational efficiency factor K fuel = CO2 emission factor for this aircraft movement taking into account use of SAF.

3.1.22 The sum of all aircraft movements to each of the destinations specified in the ATM

forecast schedules provides the annual total air transport CO2 emissions in any

year.

3.1.23 The methodology presented in Equation 1 is repeated for each of the ATM

forecast schedules provided for the Future Baseline and DCO Project scenarios.

3.1.24 CO2 emissions for years for which a forecast has not been produced are

interpolated based on growth in ATMs between the closest years for which

forecasts have been provided.




4.1.1 Table 9.3.2 presents the assumptions adopted by the assessment of air transport

emissions for the Future Baseline and DCO Project without mitigation scenarios.

Table 9.3.2: Assumptions for assessment of air transport emissions

Project parameter Assumption adopted in the Future Baseline and DCO Project without

mitigation scenario

ATM forecast

schedule

The assumptions underlying the ATM forecast schedules for the DCO Project

and Future baseline are based on Heathrow analysis that reflects likely future

development of the aircraft fleet operating from Heathrow and routes flown

Great circle

distance factors

Both scenarios have adopted uplift factors of the GCD based on DfT

assumptions of 5% uplift for short haul flights and 6% for long haul flights.

Time in Mode Both scenarios assume standard ICAO values for time in mode reflected in

EMEP/EEA.

APU emissions Both scenarios assume APU run time whilst on stand reflecting current day

operating restrictions at Heathrow. This is conservative as it does not account

for potential reductions in APU use in the future, for example through greater

use of pre conditioned air (PCA).

Fuel efficiency of

aircraft types

Both scenarios use the same assumptions.

The EMEP/EEA spreadsheet represents best available information on fuel

efficiency of existing aircraft types. Likely mid-point assumptions have been

derived for fuel efficiency of future aircraft types based on Heathrow analysis.

In summary this analysis assumes that the fuel efficiency of aircraft will

improve by 8-12% over the production life of a given aircraft model due to

incremental technology insertions, and by an additional 10-18% due to step

change improvements when a given aircraft model’s next generation

replacement aircraft enters service (refer to Appendix 9.3, Annex A for

further detail).

Operational

efficiency factors

Both scenarios have assumed no CO2 savings from operational

improvements in the future consistent with DfT advice (DfT, 2017) and

represents a conservative view.

Sustainable

Aviation Fuel (SAF)

factors

Both scenarios have assumed 5% blend of SAF by 2050 with 50% lifecycle

benefit (compared to kerosene) consistent with latest DfT advice (DfT, 2017)

and represents a conservative view.

Assuming a 5% blend with 50% lifecycle benefits by 2050 results in a fuel to

CO2 emission factor of 3.075 kg CO2/kg of aviation fuel.

5 (0.95 + 0.05/2) x 3.15 (kerosene fuel CO2 factor)




5.1.1 The results of the air transport quantification are presented in graphical form below

for the scope presented in Section 2 as:

1. Total emissions from all air transport activities by year from 2022 to 2050,

including disaggregated by domestic and international flights

2. Cumulative total emissions between 2022 and 2050.

5.1.2 In each case the results are presented for the scenarios of:

1. Future Baseline

2. DCO Project without mitigation.

5.1.3 The results are also presented in tabular form to specify emissions in the current

baseline (2017), the first year of operation (2022), year of maximum release of first

phase of capacity (2025), first full year of operations (2027), the year of maximum

ATM capacity or final year of assessment (2050) and for the worst case year

(when emissions are at their highest).

5.1.4 Appendix 9.3, Annex B contains detailed results by activity, year and scenario.

This also includes details on emissions by phase of flights (LTO and CCD) as well

as total emissions from flights subject to the EU ETS (tradeable emissions).

5.1 Total air transport emissions

5.1.1 Graphic 9.3.2 shows the total CO2 emissions for the two scenarios modelled. This

shows that emissions in the DCO Project scenario without mitigation are higher

than the Future Baseline scenario with emissions for the DCO Project without

mitigation scenario peaking in 2035.



Graphic 9.3.2: Total annual CO2 emissions from air transport:

5.1.2 Table 9.3.3 shows the annual CO2 emissions from air transport activity for each

scenario for key assessment years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases, Section 9.4, including the year of maximum emissions.

Table 9.3.3: Annual CO2 emissions from air transport

Scenario

Annual CO2 Emissions (MtCO2)

Current baseline

First year of assessment

Year of maximum release of

first phase of capacity

First full year of third

runway operations

Year of minimum

ANPS capacity

Year of maximum capacity

Year of maximum

GHG emissions

2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)

Future baseline

20.09 18.81 17.98 17.66 16.17 12.37 18.81 (2022)


20.09 19.11 19.06 19.95 25.09 19.90 25.09 (2035)



5.1.3 Table 9.3.3 shows the cumulative emissions for each scenario, showing the

increase of the DCO Project without mitigation scenario compared to the Future

Baseline scenario.

Graphic 9.3.3: Cumulative emissions (2022-2050) for the two scenarios

5.1.4 Graphic 9.3.4, and Graphic 9.3.5 show the total CO2 emissions split by domestic

and international flights for each scenario. This Graphic shows the dominance of

international emissions, representing circa 99% of total air transport emissions.



Graphic 9.3.4: Air transport emissions by activity (future baseline scenario)

Graphic 9.3.5: Air transport emissions by activity (DCO Project without mitigation scenario)



5.2 Domestic flights

5.2.1 Domestic flight emissions have been modelled for the two scenarios (Graphic

9.3.6).

Graphic 9.3.6: Emissions from domestic flights



5.3 International flights

5.3.1 International flight emissions have been modelled for the two scenarios and are

shown in Graphic 9.3.7.

Graphic 9.3.7: Emissions from international flights

5.3.2 Graphic 9.3.7 shows that the profile of international emissions is similar to that of

total emissions (shown in Graphic 9.3.2). This is because international emissions

represent circa 99% of total air transport emissions. The emissions related to the

DCO Project without mitigation peak in 2035 and are higher than for the Future

Baseline scenario.




Table 9.3.4: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from air transport

Term Definition

ANPS Airports National Policy Statement

APU Auxiliary Power Unit



CCC Committee on Climate Change

CCD Climb out, cruise and descent

CO2 Carbon dioxide



EEA European Environment Agency

EMEP European Monitoring and Evaluation Program

ES Environmental statement

EU European Union

EU ETS European Union Emission Trading Scheme


GCD Great circle distance

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

Long-haul Flights to destinations outwith Western Europe

LRTAP Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Project

LTO Landing and take-off. The LTO cycle is a standard defined by ICAO for the purposes of modelling local airport related emissions.


NOX Nitrogen oxides


PCA Pre-Conditioned Air

SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Short-haul Flights to ‘'Western Europe', which comprises the following groups of countries: Andorra; Austria; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Cape Verde; Channel Isles, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Faroe Islands; Finland; France; Germany; Gibraltar; Greece; Greenland; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Macedonia; Malta; Republic of Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; Norway; Poland; Portugal; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain;



Term Definition

Sweden; Switzerland; and Turkey (DfT, 2017). This is consistent with the definition of 'Western Europe' used in the department's aviation model suite.

UK United Kingdom

UN United Nations

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change



7. BIBLIOGRAPHY


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https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aviation-2050-the-future-of-uk-aviation

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/653821/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/653821/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017.pdf

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2016/part-b-sectoral-guidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-a-aviation-1/view



https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2016

https://www.sustainableaviation.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL__SA_Roadmap_2016.pdf

https://www.sustainableaviation.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL__SA_Roadmap_2016.pdf


A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX A FUEL EFFICIENCY DATA FOR FUTURE AIRCRAFT TYPES

7.1.1 Aircraft fuel efficiency data has been developed to account for fuel efficiency

improvements in the aircraft fleet forecast to operate at Heathrow out to 2050 for

the Future Baseline and DCO Project scenarios.

7.1.2 The forecast of future aircraft fuel efficiency has considered fuel efficiency

improvements due to incremental development of aircraft over their production

cycle (for example due to additions of winglets, engine performance improvement

packages, lightweight interiors) as well as step change technological

improvements that result in new aircraft variants.

7.1.3 The forecast improvements have been developed through analysis of historical

improvement in emissions by aircraft type, an evaluation of the history of

emissions regulation, and assessment of the future technology pipeline and its

emissions reduction potential and the maturity of the technology. The steps

involved in determining the adoption of future technologies and their effect on fuel

efficiency are described further through Table 9.3.5.

Table 9.3.5: Technology adoption methodology

# Step Description

1 Technology Identification Identify the technologies that can improve fuel efficiency if installed on new in-production aircraft

2 Technology Assessments Identify the magnitude and means by which these technologies improve fuel efficiency by aircraft category

3 Probability of Technical Success

Assess the probability of technical success by technology and aircraft size category

4 Probability of Commercial Success

Assess the probability of commercial success by technology and aircraft size category

5 Fuel/CO2 Emissions Forecast Derive the forecasted fuel/CO2 reductions down to the aircraft model within aircraft size category

7.1.4 To describe the evolution of aircraft the following definitions have been adopted:

Generation 0: This represents existing aircraft types (whether in or out of production)

from a previous design generation and are included within EMAP/EEA

(EEA, 2016) data, for example Airbus A320.



Generation 1: This represents the replacement aircraft for Generation 0 types, for

example Airbus A320 neo.

Generation 2: This represents Generation 1 replacement aircraft that are likely to emerge

in the period after 2030 and continue to be in production and delivered to

and beyond 2050.

7.1.5 The assessment has determined that the fuel efficiency of aircraft will improve by

8-12% over the production life of a given aircraft model due to incremental

technology insertions, and by an additional 10-18% due to step change

improvement when a given aircraft model’s next generation replacement aircraft

enters service, e.g. moving from Generation 1 to Generation 2 model.

7.1.6 Table 9.3.6 details the likely midpoint effect of the fuel efficiency projections

represented as CO2 emissions for a nominal range for existing and future aircraft

types out to 2050 classified by generation.



Table 9.3.6: Likely mid-point CO2 emissions for nominal range forecast

Aircraft

Model

Manufa

cturer

Entry

into

Service

Aircraft

Size

Category6

Aircraft

Genera

tion

Nominal

Range

(Nautical

miles)

CO2 Emissions (kg)

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

A318 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 13,959 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889

A319 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 13,931 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861

A320 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 15,282 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205

A321 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 19,242 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145

A319neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 12,537 12,473 12,301 12,015 11,651 11,651 11,651 11,651

A320neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 13,753 13,683 13,494 13,180 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781

A321neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 17,317 17,228 16,991 16,595 16,093 16,093 16,093 16,093

A330-200 Airbus 1994 Large WB G0 1,856 75,852 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620


A330neo-

900

Airbus 2018 Large WB G1 1,856 - 63,568 63,070 62,763 62,763 62,763 62,763 62,763




A380-800 Airbus 2006 Large

Quad

G0 3,813 330,582 328,883 323,978 322,838 322,838 322,838 322,838 322,838

6 The dividing line between small and large widebody is ~300 seats.



Aircraft

Model

Manufa

cturer

Entry

into

Service

Aircraft

Size

Category6

Aircraft

Genera

tion

Nominal

Range

(Nautical

miles)

CO2 Emissions (kg)

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

737-700 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 16,869 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786

737-800 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 18,225 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136

737-900 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 18,835 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743

737MAX-

700

Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 15,200 15,165 15,030 14,782 14,463 14,463 14,463 14,463

737MAX-

800

Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 16,422 16,385 16,239 15,971 15,626 15,626 15,626 15,626

737MAX-

900

Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 16,971 16,933 16,782 16,505 16,149 16,149 16,149 16,149

757-300 Boeing 1983 NB G0 1,411 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169

NMA Boeing 2025 Small WB G2 1,411 - - 33,735 33,511 32,959 32,190 31,700 31,700

787-8 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 91,666 91,253 90,078 88,262 86,892 86,892 86,892 86,892

787-9 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 98,578 98,134 96,871 94,918 93,445 93,445 93,445 93,445

787-10 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 103,507 103,041 101,714 99,664 98,117 98,117 98,117 98,117

777-200 Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 101,525 101,065 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842

777-300 Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 120,392 119,846 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582

777-300ER Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 135,595 134,980 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682

777X-800 Boeing 2020 Large WB G1 2,404 - 102,474 101,972 100,743 98,944 96,772 94,951 94,951

777X-900 Boeing 2020 Large WB G1 2,404 - 115,414 114,849 113,465 111,439 108,992 106,942 106,942



Aircraft

Model

Manufa

cturer

Entry

into

Service

Aircraft

Size

Category6

Aircraft

Genera

tion

Nominal

Range

(Nautical

miles)

CO2 Emissions (kg)

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

747-8 Boeing 2011 Large

Quad

G0 3,243 220,099 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951

CRJ900 Bombar

dier

2001 RJ G0 434 6,854 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841

CS300 Bombar

dier

2016 RJ G0 745 12,574 12,527 12,382 12,127 11,934 11,934 11,934 11,934

E170 Embrae

r

2004 RJ G0 494 7,054 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033

E190 Embrae

r

2004 RJ G0 503 9,255 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228

E195 Embrae

r

2004 RJ G0 503 9,255 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228

E175 E2 Embrae

r

2018 RJ G1 494 - 6,349 6,302 6,220 6,081 6,002 6,002 6,002

E190 E2 Embrae

r

2018 RJ G1 503 - 8,329 8,268 8,161 7,978 7,874 7,874 7,874

E195 E2 Embrae

r

2018 RJ G1 503 - 8,329 8,268 8,161 7,978 7,874 7,874 7,874

MRJ Mitsubis

hi

2020 RJ G1 503 - 8,335 8,298 8,214 8,058 8,015 8,015 8,015

Future NB TBA 2032 NB G2 745 - - - - 9,887 9,768 9,607 9,431



Aircraft

Model

Manufa

cturer

Entry

into

Service

Aircraft

Size

Category6

Aircraft

Genera

tion

Nominal

Range

(Nautical

miles)

CO2 Emissions (kg)

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Future

Small WB

TBA 2032 Small WB G2 2,837 - - - - 77,775 76,853 75,558 74,074

Future

Large WB

TBA 2044 Large WB G2 2,404 - - - - - - 84,229 83,868

Future RJ TBA 2035 RJ G2 503 - - - - 6,585 6,556 6,479 6,347



747-400 Boeing 1989 Large

Quad

G0 3,243 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053

767-300 Boeing 1982 Small WB G0 2,214 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630

767-300ER Boeing 1982 Small WB G0 2,214 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630

Q400 Bombar

dier

1984 TP G0 227 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375



7.1.7 The aircraft types from Table 9.3.6 are mapped to aircraft descriptors in the Future

Baseline and DCO Project ATM forecast schedules based on Table 9.3.7.

Table 9.3.7: Aircraft mapping table

Heathrow Aircraft Nomenclature in

ATM forecast schedule

Aircraft

Generation

Aircraft Nomenclature

modelled types

Aircraft Size

Category

318 G0 A318 NB

319 G0 A319 NB

319N G1 A319neo NB

320 G0 A320 NB

320N G1 A320neo NB

320X G2 Future NB NB

321 G0 A321 NB

321N G1 A321neo NB

321X G2 Future NB NB

32B G0 A320 NB

32H G0 A320 NB

332 G0 A330-200 Large WB

333 G0 A330-300 Large WB

339 G1 A330neo-900 Large WB

343 G0 A340-300 Large WB

346 G0 A340-600 Large WB

351 G1 A350-1000 Large WB

351N G2 Future Small WB Large WB

359 G1 A350-900 Large WB

359N G2 Future Small WB Large WB

388 G0 A380-800 Large Quad

738 G0 737-800 NB

73H G0 737-800 NB

73J G0 737-900 NB

73W G0 737-700 NB

744 G0 747-400 Large Quad

74H G0 747-8 Large Quad



Heathrow Aircraft Nomenclature in

ATM forecast schedule

Aircraft

Generation

Aircraft Nomenclature

modelled types

Aircraft Size

Category

763 G0 767-300 Small WB

76W G0 767-300 Small WB

772 G0 777-200 Large WB

773 G0 777-300 Large WB

779 G1 777X-900 Large WB

779N G2 Future Large WB Large WB

77W G0 777-300ER Large WB

781 G1 787-10 Small WB

781N G2 Future Small WB Small WB

788 G1 787-8 Small WB


789 G1 787-9 Small WB


7M7 G1 737MAX-700 NB

7M8 G1 737MAX-800 NB

7M9 G1 737MAX-900 NB

7X8 G2 Future NB NB

7X9 G2 Future NB NB

DH4 G0 Q400 TP

E90 G0 E190 RJ

E95 G0 E195 RJ

E95-2 G1 E195 E2 RJ


B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX B DETAILED RESULTS FOR AIR TRANSPORT

Future baseline

Table 9.3.8: Domestic and international emissions breakdown

Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)

Future baseline

Year Domestic International TOTAL

2022 0.16 18.65 18.81

2023 0.16 18.38 18.54

2024 0.17 18.11 18.28

2025 0.17 17.81 17.98

2026 0.17 17.66 17.82

2027 0.17 17.50 17.66

2028 0.17 17.37 17.53

2029 0.16 17.23 17.40

2030 0.16 17.10 17.26

2031 0.16 16.88 17.04

2032 0.16 16.67 16.82

2033 0.15 16.45 16.61

2034 0.15 16.24 16.39

2035 0.15 16.02 16.17

2036 0.15 15.77 15.92

2037 0.15 15.52 15.66

2038 0.14 15.27 15.41

2039 0.14 15.01 15.16

2040 0.14 14.76 14.90

2041 0.14 14.51 14.65

2042 0.14 14.26 14.40

2043 0.14 14.01 14.14

2044 0.14 13.76 13.89

2045 0.13 13.50 13.64

2046 0.13 13.25 13.38

2047 0.13 13.00 13.13

2048 0.13 12.75 12.88

2049 0.13 12.50 12.62

2050 0.13 12.24 12.37




Future baseline


Cumulative Total 4.30 452.17 456.47

Table 9.3.9: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown


Future baseline

Year CCD LTO including APU TOTAL

2022 17.64 1.17 18.81

2023 17.38 1.16 18.54

2024 17.13 1.15 18.28

2025 16.85 1.14 17.98

2026 16.70 1.13 17.82

2027 16.55 1.12 17.66

2028 16.42 1.11 17.53

2029 16.30 1.10 17.40

2030 16.18 1.09 17.26

2031 15.97 1.08 17.04

2032 15.76 1.06 16.82

2033 15.55 1.05 16.61

2034 15.35 1.04 16.39

2035 15.14 1.03 16.17

2036 14.90 1.02 15.92

2037 14.66 1.00 15.66

2038 14.42 0.99 15.41

2039 14.18 0.98 15.16

2040 13.94 0.97 14.90

2041 13.70 0.95 14.65

2042 13.45 0.94 14.40

2043 13.21 0.93 14.14

2044 12.97 0.92 13.89

2045 12.73 0.90 13.64

2046 12.49 0.89 13.38

2047 12.25 0.88 13.13

2048 12.01 0.87 12.88

2049 11.77 0.85 12.62

2050 11.53 0.84 12.37




Future baseline



Table 9.3.10: Tradeable emissions7


Future baseline

Year Traded (includes Domestic)

2022 1.82

2023 1.81

2024 1.80

2025 1.80

2026 1.79

2027 1.78

2028 1.74

2029 1.71

2030 1.68

2031 1.66

2032 1.64

2033 1.62

2034 1.60

2035 1.57

2036 1.56

2037 1.55

2038 1.54

2039 1.52

2040 1.51

2041 1.50

2042 1.49

2043 1.48

2044 1.46

2045 1.45

2046 1.44

2047 1.43

7 The ANPS requires tradeable emissions to be reported. For air transport these are defined as emissions subject to the EU ETS.




Future baseline


2048 1.41

2049 1.40

2050 1.39

Cumulative Total 46.13




Table 9.3.11: International and domestic emissions breakdown




2022 0.16 18.95 19.11

2023 0.18 19.09 19.27

2024 0.18 19.02 19.19

2025 0.18 18.88 19.06

2026 0.18 18.54 18.71

2027 0.22 19.73 19.95

2028 0.22 20.95 21.17

2029 0.22 22.15 22.37

2030 0.22 23.34 23.56

2031 0.22 23.65 23.87

2032 0.22 23.96 24.18

2033 0.22 24.27 24.49

2034 0.21 24.58 24.80

2035 0.21 24.88 25.09

2036 0.21 24.24 24.44

2037 0.21 23.59 23.79

2038 0.20 22.94 23.14

2039 0.20 22.29 22.50

2040 0.20 21.65 21.85

2041 0.20 21.49 21.69

2042 0.19 21.34 21.53

2043 0.19 21.18 21.37

2044 0.19 21.02 21.21

2045 0.19 20.87 21.06

2046 0.19 20.64 20.83

2047 0.19 20.41 20.60

2048 0.18 20.18 20.36

2049 0.18 19.95 20.13

2050 0.18 19.73 19.90




Table 9.3.12: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown




2022 17.95 1.17 19.11

2023 18.09 1.18 19.27

2024 18.01 1.18 19.19

2025 17.88 1.18 19.06

2026 17.55 1.16 18.71

2027 18.70 1.25 19.95

2028 19.86 1.31 21.17

2029 21.00 1.37 22.37

2030 22.13 1.43 23.56

2031 22.42 1.45 23.87

2032 22.71 1.47 24.18

2033 23.00 1.49 24.49

2034 23.29 1.51 24.80

2035 23.57 1.52 25.09

2036 22.95 1.50 24.44

2037 22.33 1.47 23.79

2038 21.71 1.44 23.14

2039 21.08 1.41 22.50

2040 20.46 1.38 21.85

2041 20.31 1.37 21.69

2042 20.17 1.36 21.53

2043 20.02 1.35 21.37

2044 19.87 1.35 21.21

2045 19.72 1.34 21.06

2046 19.51 1.32 20.83

2047 19.29 1.30 20.60

2048 19.08 1.29 20.36

2049 18.86 1.27 20.13

2050 18.65 1.26 19.90




Table 9.3.13: Tradeable emissions8




2022 1.82

2023 1.85

2024 1.84

2025 1.85

2026 1.84

2027 2.08

2028 2.14

2029 2.21

2030 2.27

2031 2.29

2032 2.30

2033 2.32

2034 2.33

2035 2.35

2036 2.33

2037 2.32

2038 2.30

2039 2.29

2040 2.27

2041 2.26

2042 2.24

2043 2.23

2044 2.21

2045 2.20

2046 2.17

2047 2.14

2048 2.11

2049 2.08

2050 2.05

Cumulative Total 62.70

8 The ANPS requires tradeable emissions to be reported. For air transport these are emissions subject to the EU ETS.

Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access

Appendix 9.4© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

APPENDIX 9.4

SURFACE ACCESS



CONTENTS

1. Introduction 1

2. Scope 2





5.1 Total surface access emissions 9

5.2 Passengers 13

5.3 Colleagues 14

5.4 Freight 14


7. Bibliography 16

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 9.4.1: Surface access GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.4.2: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.4.3: Assumptions for reasonable worst case assessment of GHG emissions from surface access 6 Table 9.4.4: Annual GHG emissions from surface access 10 Table 9.4.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from surface access 15 Table 9.4.6: Surface access GHG factors 1 Table 9.4.7: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline) 1 Table 9.4.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 2 Table 9.4.9: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project with mitigation) 3

TABLE OF GRAPHICS

Graphic 9.4.1: Total GHG emissions from surface access 10 Graphic 9.4.2: Cumulative GHG emissions from surface access between 2022 and 2050 11 Graphic 9.4.3: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (Future baseline) 12



Graphic 9.4.4: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project without mitigation) 12 Graphic 9.4.5: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project with mitigation) 13



1. INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for

surface access travel. GHG emissions have been quantified for passenger,

colleague and freight movements to and from Heathrow. It covers the:




4. Results.

1.1.2 It presents GHG emissions based on three scenarios that are modelled for the

period 2022 to 2050:

1. Future baseline: Heathrow continues to be capped at 480,000 air transport

movements (ATMs) with two runways



infrastructure of the preferred masterplan

3. DCO Project with mitigation: three runway scenario, including the full suite of

environmental measures.

Both DCO Project scenarios assessed include changes to the physical transport

infrastructure such as roads and motorway junctions associated with the DCO

Project design. The DCO Project with mitigation scenario also includes further

environmental measures included in the Surface Access Proposals, such as

vehicle access charges, reduced rail fares, colleague travel plans and freight

consolidation.


GHG emissions. A preliminary assessment of likely significant effects aggregating

GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases.



2. SCOPE

2.1.1 Surface access transport GHG emissions have been considered from passenger,

colleague and freight movements. GHG emissions due to surface access

movements between Heathrow and the rest of the UK mainland have been

included in the assessment using the following modes: private road vehicles (cars,

motorbikes), taxis, freight vehicles (light goods vehicles (LGV) and heavy goods

vehicles (HGV)), buses and coaches, surface rail and London underground.

2.1.2 The methodology and underlying assumptions used to generate the surface

access models are as described in the Preliminary Transport Information

Report (PTIR), Volume 1, Chapter 5: Methodology. Further processing has

been undertaken for the surface access GHG emissions assessment (summarised

in Section 3.1: GHG emissions quantification). A summary of the assumptions

made is recorded in Section 4: Assumptions and limitations of this Appendix.

2.1.3 Table 9.4.1 lists out the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions assessment.

Table 9.4.1: Surface access GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment

Activity Effect

GHG emissions from passenger access, colleague

access and freight movement. Includes the following

modes of transport:

1) Private road vehicles (cars, motorbikes)

2) Taxis (including minicab)

3) Light Goods Vehicles (LGV)

4) Heavy Good Vehicles (HGV)

5) Buses and Coaches

6) Surface rail and London Underground.

GHG emissions associated with surface

access occur due to the consumption of fuel in

vehicle movements (this includes passengers,

colleagues and freight movements). Note that

colleague travel includes all people working

anywhere at the airport.

Total emissions depend on the number of

transport movements, the distance travelled for

each movement and the mixture of transport

modes (road and rail access) used over time.





3.1.1 The quantification of surface access transport GHG emissions covers passenger

access, colleague access and freight movement and has included the following

modes of transport:

1. Private road vehicles (cars, motorbikes)

2. Taxis (including minicabs)

3. LGVs

4. HGVs

5. Buses and coaches

6. Surface rail and London Underground.

3.1.2 These modes are further divided into user classes and include petrol, diesel and

electric propelled vehicles.

3.1.1 The activity units used to calculate GHG emissions for each mode of transport are

total vehicle kilometres travelled (for passenger and colleague private vehicles and

freight vehicles) or passenger kilometres travelled (for passenger and colleague

public transport). The quantification of these activities has been completed using

journey demand (number of journeys), distance and transport mode sourced from

outputs of the traffic and transport models (Heathrow Highway Assignment and

Surface Access Model (HHASAM) v2.0, London Airports Surface Access Model

(LASAM) v4.2, Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model (HEM-CM) v1.14). The

methodology and assumptions used to generate these models are as described in

the PTIR, Volume 1, Chapter 5.

3.1.2 The activity data was then multiplied by the appropriate GHG emissions factor for

each mode of transport and assessment year. The GHG emissions factors used

were sourced from the UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for Company

Reporting for 2017 (BEIS, August 2017), for consistency with the current baseline

assessment.

3.1.3 GHG emissions factors for cars and LGVs for each year between 2022 and 2050

were calculated to account for projected changes in the vehicle fleet mix (diesel,

petrol and electric vehicles) showing an increasing proportion of electric vehicles

over time (up to 25% electric vehicles in 2050). These calculations applied the

projected proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type (up to 2050) in the Web-

based Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG) table A1.3.9 (DfT, May 2018) to



the BEIS 2017 GHG emissions factors. The GHG emissions factors applied in the

quantification are presented in Table 9.4.6.

3.1.4 The estimated GHG emissions for each mode of transport were aggregated to

establish the overall surface access GHG emissions estimate for each

assessment year and scenario.

3.1.5 Table 9.4.2 provides more detail into the surface access methodology by project

parameter.



Transport models based on: passenger numbers, colleague numbers, distances travelled, cargo and other goods, transport mode split

The latest versions of the traffic and transport models (HHASAM v2.0, LASAM v4.2 and HEM-CM v1.14) available at the time of assessment have been used. In line with the PTIR, surface access model results have been obtained for the baseline year (2017) and a limited number of future years only (as detailed in this table under Passenger numbers, Colleague numbers and Cargo and other goods). 2017 is the baseline year to enable comparison checks between the transport scenarios modelled and also checks against the previously published Heathrow Carbon Footprint (2017). The assessment period reported for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) is 2022 to 2050. Activities for each year between modelled years have been linearly interpolated, and activities between 2040 and 2050 have been scaled proportionally to growth in passengers or ATMs as detailed in Section 4.

Passenger numbers

The London Airport Surface Access Model (LASAM) v4.2 model has been used to estimate the number of passenger transport movements and distances travelled by transport mode and origin or destination zone. Annual numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios, and 2030 and 2040 for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario.

Colleague numbers

The Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model (HEM-CM) v1.14 has been used to estimate the number of colleague movements and distances travelled by transport mode and origin or destination zone. This is for all Heathrow colleagues, including in retail. The numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios, and 2030 and 2040 for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2025, as the further environmental measures from the Surface Access Proposals are assumed to be implemented and affect model results from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan design) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.




Cargo and other goods

The Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model (HHASAM) v2.0 has been used for freight movements by road by origin-destination zones. Annual numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2022, 2024, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios. Heathrow related freight traffic consists of LGV and HGV trips. These trips are for airline servicing (in-flight catering); airport servicing (maintenance and improvement projects); retail (retail in passenger terminals); waste collection; and cargo and mail (exports, imports and transhipments). Freight services are likely to be provided by a mix of vehicles of different weights and loads, however this mix has not been modelled (beyond HGV / LGV split) and so the BEIS 2017 average HGV and LGV factors have been used, including average load.

Transport mode split

The HHASAM v2.0, LASAM v4.2 and HEM-CM v1.14 models have been used to forecast the transport mode split. The distance travelled for passenger journeys by public transport is split between a ‘final leg’ and a ‘feed-up leg’, for example a journey starting outside London and arriving to the Airport by London Underground will have a feed-up leg by rail and a final leg by London Underground. Final leg modes include coach or bus, Heathrow Connect, Elizabeth Line (Crossrail), Heathrow Express, London Underground and RailAir. Feed-up leg modes include rail and London Underground. Modelled mode and origin zone have been used to assign the most appropriate GHG emissions factor:

1) Taxi journeys from within London are assumed to be a proportion of black-cab

and regular taxi, as a reasonable worst case compared to an average taxi GHG

emissions factor

2) Bus journeys from within London have been assigned a London-specific GHG

emissions factor, instead of the national GHG emissions factor.

Fuel efficiency UK Government Conversion Factors for Company Reporting (BEIS, August 2017) are used as they represent the current baseline year and the best available knowledge at the time of the assessment. For cars and LGVs, the future uptake of electric vehicles forecasted by the Department for Transport (DfT) has been used. The proportion of vehicle kilometres using petrol, diesel or electricity has been based on WebTAG table A1.3.9 (DfT, May 2018). This is more representative that just applying the baseline GHG emissions factor to the modelled transport activities.




4.1.1 The assumptions adopted in the assessment are based on the need to represent a

reasonable worst case assessment. Table 9.4.3 presents the assumptions

adopted for all scenarios. Where assumptions are specific to one scenario, this is

clarified in Table 9.4.3.

Table 9.4.3: Assumptions for reasonable worst case assessment of GHG emissions from surface access

Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case

Transport models based on: passenger numbers, colleague numbers, distances travelled, cargo and other goods, transport mode split

Where references are made to a methodology that is detailed in another chapter of the PEIR, please see these chapters for details of assumptions made to represent reasonable worst case. Activities for each non-modelled intermediate year between 2017 and 2040 have been linearly interpolated, and activities between 2040 and 2050 have been assumed to be identical to 2040 levels.

Passenger numbers The proportion of airside and landside transfers assumed in the LASAM model for the future baseline scenario was lower (between 23% and 27%) than in the DCO Project scenarios (32%). To enable a meaningful comparison between scenarios, passenger demand in the future baseline scenario has been scaled to the same proportion of transfers as the DCO Project scenarios. Emissions for the DCO Project scenarios have been assumed equal to the future baseline up to 2021, as the ATM early release would start in 2022 in the DCO Project scenarios. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario between 2022 and 2025, as the further environmental measures are assumed in the models from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan design) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.

Colleague numbers Modelled average weekday colleague movements are scaled to annual using an annualization factor of 342. This assumes the average weekday is representative for the whole year. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2025, as the further environmental measures are assumed in the models from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.

Cargo and other goods

Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2027, as the DCO Project design interventions on the road network are assumed to be implemented and affect model results from 2027 onwards. Activities for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario between 2028 and 2050 have been assumed to grow at the same rate as ATMs.




Transport mode split All feed up journeys (where applicable) are assumed to take place using one transport mode only for the whole distance from their origin to the relevant transport interchange, where the final leg starts (interchange to Airport). The same applies for journey starting from the Airport (final leg from Airport to interchange, feed up leg from interchange to destination).

Fuel efficiency and fuel type

As a reasonable worst case, it has been assumed that there are no future fuel efficiency improvements (litres per km), or improvements to fuel GHG intensity (carbon dioxide equivalent – CO2e per litre) for diesel or petrol vehicles. As future projections have high uncertainty associated with them, GHG emissions factors for all transport modes except cars and LGVs have been kept equal to their 2017 values. This assumption is likely to result in an overestimate of emissions and is therefore considered worst-case.

The WebTAG table A1.3.9 (DfT, 2018) maintains 100% diesel fuel for ‘ordinary goods vehicles’ (OGVs) and does not anticipate any introduction of electric vehicles. It has been assumed that this also applies for HGVs. Projected changes in future emissions from cars and LGVs due to uptake of

electric vehicles have been taken into account as detailed in Section 3: Quantification methodology.

Masterplan environmental measures

As previously described in Section 1: Introduction, the DCO Project without mitigation scenario does include environmental measures that are an inherent component of the design and cannot be disaggregated in terms of carbon benefit. Both the DCO Project without mitigation and the DCO Project with mitigation scenarios assume transport infrastructure would be provided in line with the DCO Project design and phasing (described in Chapter 6: DCO Project description), including new motorway junctions, new roads and changes in parking provision. Exceptions to this are the Southern Road Tunnel and reduction of parking provision to Heathrow colleagues in 2040, which are not included in the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. In all scenarios it has been assumed that Western Rail and Southern Rail will not be in operation. This is because their delivery sits beyond the control of Heathrow and therefore cannot be built into any assessment work for the DCO Project at this stage. Other planned public transport projects not forming part of the DCO Project have been included in both scenarios. These include HS2 Stage 1, the Elizabeth Line and increases in services on the Piccadilly Line.

Further environmental measures

The DCO Project with mitigation scenario includes further measures which are part of the Surface Access Proposals. Although the Proposals are not a fixed set of environmental measures but a ‘toolbox’ which would be applied in response to ongoing monitoring of travel to the Airport, a specified set of environmental measures has informed the transport models used for this quantification. These are to be considered indicative and subject to change. Further environmental measures assumed in the DCO Project with mitigation scenario include:

1) Improved bus and coach services

2) Reduced fares on Heathrow Express services




3) Flat discount on public transport fares for colleagues

4) Vehicle access charges

5) Measures to reduce the proportion of empty taxi return trips

6) Reduction in parking provision for colleagues in 2040

7) Opening of the Southern Road Tunnel. These measures are not included in the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. Further details of the environmental measures assumed in the transport models are provided in the PTIR, Volume 1, Chapter 5.




5.1.1 This section presents the estimated GHG emissions from the surface access

activities detailed in Section 2: Scope as:

1. Total emissions from all surface access activities

2. Emissions from each activity (passenger, colleague and freight transport).

5.1.2 In each case the results are presented for the scenarios of:

1. Future baseline

2. DCO Project without mitigation

3. DCO Project with mitigation.


additional assessment years

5.1.4 Appendix 9.4: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Surface access, Annex A

contains a list of GHG emissions factors used and Appendix 9.4, Annex B

contains detailed results by activity, year and scenario.

5.1 Total surface access emissions

5.1.1 Graphic 9.4.1 shows the total GHG emissions for the three scenarios. As annual

passenger emissions dominate (in the region of 1 million tonnes, as opposed to

around 100 thousand tonnes for freight or colleagues), the overall emissions are

higher for both the DCO Project with mitigation and the DCO Project without

mitigation scenarios compared to the future baseline scenario.



Graphic 9.4.1: Total GHG emissions from surface access

5.1.2 Table 9.4.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all transport combined

(colleagues, freight and passengers) in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

(MtCO2e) for key milestone years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases, Section 9.4, with the year of maximum GHG emissions for

each scenario presented.

Table 9.4.4: Annual GHG emissions from surface access

Scenario


Base year


Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity


runway operations

Year of minimum

ANPS capacity


Year of maximum

GHG emissions

2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)

Future baseline

0.77 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.95

(2022)


0.77 0.97 0.97 1.03 1.19 1.26 1.26

(2050)



Scenario


Base year


Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity


runway operations

Year of minimum

ANPS capacity


Year of maximum

GHG emissions

2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)

DCO Project with mitigation

0.77 0.97 0.97 0.96 1.07 1.08 1.08

(2050)

Graphic 9.4.2: Cumulative GHG emissions from surface access between 2022 and 2050

5.1.3 Graphic 9.4.2 shows the cumulative emissions for each scenario (total from 2022

to 2050), showing the increase of the DCO Project with mitigation scenario

compared to the future baseline scenario, but also the reduction that further

environmental measures bring from the DCO Project without mitigation scenario.

5.1.4 Graphic 9.4.3, Graphic 9.4.4 and Graphic 9.4.5 show the total GHG emissions

split by passengers, colleagues and freight, for each scenario. All Graphics show

the dominance of passenger emissions over all other types.



Graphic 9.4.3: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (Future baseline)

Graphic 9.4.4: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project without mitigation)



Graphic 9.4.5: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project with mitigation)

5.2 Passengers

5.2.1 Passenger emissions have been modelled for the three scenarios. The future

baseline scenario is the lowest emission scenario. The DCO Project with

mitigation scenario reduces cumulative emissions by 11% compared to the DCO

Project without mitigation scenario.

5.2.2 Emissions from passenger travel are by far the greatest contribution to total

surface access GHG emissions. The emissions are directly linked to the number of

passengers travelling, and therefore the increase of passenger numbers in both

DCO Project scenarios lead to higher emissions compared to a future baseline

scenario.

5.2.3 As explained in Table 9.4.3, further environmental measures are included in the

model assumptions for the DCO Project with mitigation scenario, such as lower

fares for the Heathrow Express and an airport access charge for private vehicles.

Together, these measures lead to increased uptake of public transport over private

car and taxi use, and lower GHG emissions.



5.3 Colleagues

5.3.1 Emissions from colleague travel have been modelled for the three scenarios, The

DCO Project with mitigation scenario significantly reduces expected emissions to

below future baseline levels.

5.3.2 Both DCO Project scenarios show lower greenhouse gas emissions than the

future baseline scenario due to a reduction in car use and modal shift to public

transport. In the DCO Project without mitigation scenario the modal shift is driven

mainly by a reduction in number of parking spaces in the DCO Project design.

Further environmental measures in the Surface Access Proposals would further

increase the shift to public transport in the DCO Project with mitigation scenario

and lower emissions further.

5.3.3 The future baseline scenario shows small variations in overall GHG emissions

from colleague transport movements. The forecasted increase in colleague

numbers and number of movements is offset by the forecasted uptake of electric

vehicles in the national average car fleet composition.

5.4 Freight

5.4.1 Emissions from surface freight transport have been modelled for the three

scenarios.

5.4.2 The DCO Project with mitigation scenario shows the anticipated freight

consolidation measures in the Surface Access Proposals are likely to be

effective at reducing GHG emissions, even though there are more ATMs with a

third runway.

5.4.3 Between 2022 and 2029, GHG emissions are higher in both DCO Project

scenarios than in the future baseline scenario due to the proposed increase in

ATMs both before and after opening of the third runway.

5.4.4 All scenarios see a reduction in emissions from 2040 onwards due to the

forecasted uptake of electric LGVs in the national average fleet composition. Note

that HGVs are not anticipated to shift to electric in the assessment.




Table 9.4.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from surface access

Term Definition







HEM-CM Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model

HGV Heavy goods vehicle

HHASAM Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model


LASAM London Airports Surface Access Model

LGV Light goods vehicle

OGV Ordinary goods vehicle

PASSENGER KM Unit of transport activity used to quantify GHG emissions - a kilometre travelled by a passenger using a defined mode of transport.


PTIR Preliminary Transport Information Report

UK United Kingdom

VEHICLE KM Unit of transport activity used to quantify GHG emissions - a kilometre travelled by single vehicle.

WebTAG Web-based Transport Analysis Guidance

WTT Well-to-tank (referring to emissions during the fuel supply chain)



7. BIBLIOGRAPHY


Airports Commission. (July 2015). Business Case and Sustainability Assessment – Heathrow Airport Northwest Runway. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/440315/business-case-and-sustainability-assessment.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Airports Commission, 2015

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (August 2017). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2017. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2017 [Accessed 13 February 2019].

BEIS, August 2017

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (January 2018). Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671187/Updated_energy_and_emissions_projections_2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].

BEIS, January 2018

Department for Transport (DfT). (May 2018). Transport Analysis Guidance, WebTAG A1.3.9: Proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag [Accessed 13 February 2019].

DfT, 2018

Greater London Authority. (March 2018). Mayor’s Transport Strategy. [online]. Available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/transport/green-transport [Accessed 13 February 2019].

Greater London Authority, March 2018

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/440315/business-case-and-sustainability-assessment.pdf












https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/transport/green-transport

https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/transport/green-transport


Appendix 9.4. Annex A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX A SURFACE ACCESS GHG EMISSIONS FACTORS

Table 9.4.6: Surface access GHG emissions factors

Mode Year Factor

Name

Factor

(including

WTT1)

Factor

Unit

Source Assumptions

Bus 2017

to

2050

Local bus

(not London)

0.15184 kgCO2e per

passenger.

km

BEIS UK

Government

GHG

Conversion

Factors for

Company

Reporting,

v1.0, 2017

Assumes no

improvement / shift

to electric from

2017

Car 2017 Car 0.227842 kgCO2e per

km

Based on year-

specific WebTAG

proportion of

electric, diesel,

petrol

Car 2022 Car 0.225221

Car 2023 Car 0.224192

Car 2024 Car 0.222977

Car 2025 Car 0.221721

Car 2026 Car 0.220439

Car 2027 Car 0.219131

Car 2028 Car 0.217752

Car 2029 Car 0.21632

Car 2030 Car 0.214837

Car 2031 Car 0.213427

Car 2032 Car 0.212096

Car 2033 Car 0.210851

Car 2034 Car 0.209667

Car 2035 Car 0.208526

Car 2036 Car 0.20745

Car 2037 Car 0.206388

Car 2038 Car 0.205357

Car 2039 Car 0.204325

Car 2040 Car 0.203282

Car 2041 Car 0.202023

Car 2042 Car 0.200902

1 Well-to-tank emissions, referring to GHG emissions resulting from the fuel supply chain from oil extraction to delivery to a vehicle.



Mode Year Factor

Name

Factor

(including

WTT1)

Factor

Unit

Source Assumptions

Car 2043 Car 0.199904

Car 2044 Car 0.199012

Car 2045 Car 0.198205

Car 2046 Car 0.197477

Car 2047 Car 0.196834

Car 2048 Car 0.196267

Car 2049 Car 0.195769

Car 2050 Car 0.195323

Coach 2017

to

2050

Coach 0.03439 kgCO2e per

passenger.

km

Assumes no

improvement / shift

to electric from

2017

HGV 2017

to

2050

All HGVs,

average

laden

1.0794 kgCO2e per

km

London Bus 2017

to

2050

Local London

bus

0.09007 kgCO2e per

passenger.

km

Motorbike 2017

to

2050

Average 0.14776 kgCO2e per

km

Rail 2017

to

2050

National rail 0.05599 kgCO2e per

passenger.

km

Taxi 2017

to

2050

Regular taxi 0.27073 kgCO2e per

km

Black cab 2017

to

2050

Black cab +

regular taxi

0.295892 kgCO2e per

km

Assumes no

improvement / shift

to electric.

20% licensed

vehicles are

traditional taxi

(Black Cab) in

London in 2017

(DfT Taxi and

Private Hire Vehicle

Statistics: England

2017)



Mode Year Factor

Name

Factor

(including

WTT1)

Factor

Unit

Source Assumptions

Underground 2017

to

2050

London

Underground

0.05419 kgCO2e per

passenger.

km

Assumes no

improvement from

2017

Van 2017 Van 0.319033 kgCO2e per

km

Based on year-

specific WebTAG

proportion of

electric, diesel,

petrol

Van 2022 Van 0.318642

Van 2023 Van 0.318111

Van 2024 Van 0.317215

Van 2025 Van 0.315692

Van 2026 Van 0.314239

Van 2027 Van 0.312571

Van 2028 Van 0.310827

Van 2029 Van 0.308853

Van 2030 Van 0.306602

Van 2031 Van 0.304405

Van 2032 Van 0.302188

Van 2033 Van 0.299966

Van 2034 Van 0.297692

Van 2035 Van 0.295422

Van 2036 Van 0.29325

Van 2037 Van 0.291106

Van 2038 Van 0.289008

Van 2039 Van 0.286959

Van 2040 Van 0.284973

Van 2041 Van 0.282947

Van 2042 Van 0.280877

Van 2043 Van 0.278799

Van 2044 Van 0.276719

Van 2045 Van 0.274639

Van 2046 Van 0.272559

Van 2047 Van 0.270481

Van 2048 Van 0.268438

Van 2049 Van 0.26642



Mode Year Factor

Name

Factor

(including

WTT1)

Factor

Unit

Source Assumptions

Van 2050 Van 0.264433


Appendix 9.4 Annex B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

ANNEX B SURFACE ACCESS FULL RESULTS TABLE

Table 9.4.7: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline)


Future baseline

Year Passengers Colleagues Freight TOTAL

2022 0.74 0.16 0.05 0.95

2023 0.74 0.16 0.05 0.95

2024 0.73 0.16 0.05 0.94

2025 0.72 0.16 0.05 0.94

2026 0.72 0.16 0.05 0.93

2027 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93

2028 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93

2029 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93

2030 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.92

2031 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.92

2032 0.71 0.16 0.06 0.92

2033 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92

2034 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92

2035 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92

2036 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92

2037 0.70 0.17 0.06 0.92

2038 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.92

2039 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2040 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2041 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2042 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2043 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2044 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2045 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2046 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91

2047 0.69 0.16 0.06 0.91

2048 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91

2049 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91

2050 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91

Cumulative Total 20.36 4.74 1.60 26.69







2022 0.75 0.15 0.05 0.95

2023 0.76 0.15 0.05 0.96

2024 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.96

2025 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.97

2026 0.80 0.14 0.06 1.00

2027 0.83 0.14 0.06 1.03

2028 0.87 0.13 0.07 1.07

2029 0.90 0.13 0.07 1.10

2030 0.94 0.13 0.07 1.14

2031 0.94 0.13 0.08 1.15

2032 0.95 0.13 0.08 1.16

2033 0.96 0.13 0.08 1.17

2034 0.97 0.12 0.08 1.18

2035 0.98 0.12 0.08 1.19

2036 0.99 0.12 0.08 1.20

2037 1.00 0.12 0.08 1.21

2038 1.01 0.12 0.08 1.22

2039 1.02 0.12 0.08 1.22

2040 1.03 0.12 0.08 1.23

2041 1.03 0.12 0.08 1.24

2042 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24

2043 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24

2044 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24

2045 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24

2046 1.05 0.12 0.08 1.25

2047 1.05 0.12 0.08 1.25

2048 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.25

2049 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.26

2050 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.26




Table 9.4.9: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project with mitigation)


DCO Project with mitigation


2022 0.75 0.15 0.05 0.95

2023 0.76 0.15 0.05 0.96

2024 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.96

2025 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.97

2026 0.77 0.14 0.06 0.97

2027 0.77 0.13 0.06 0.96

2028 0.80 0.12 0.06 0.98

2029 0.83 0.11 0.06 1.00

2030 0.87 0.10 0.05 1.02

2031 0.88 0.10 0.05 1.03

2032 0.89 0.10 0.05 1.04

2033 0.90 0.10 0.05 1.05

2034 0.91 0.10 0.05 1.06

2035 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.07

2036 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.07

2037 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06

2038 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06

2039 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05

2040 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05

2041 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05

2042 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05

2043 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.05

2044 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.05

2045 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06

2046 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06

2047 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.06

2048 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.07

2049 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.07

2050 0.94 0.09 0.05 1.08


APPENDICES

Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations


APPENDIX 9.5

AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS



CONTENTS

1. Introduction 1

2. Scope 2





5.2 Total Airport buildings and ground operations emissions 9


7. Bibliography 13



TABLE OF TABLES

Table 9.5.1: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.5.2: Assumptions for reasonable worst-case assessment of Airport buildings and ground operations 7 Table 9.5.3: Limitations of Airport buildings and ground operations assessment 8 Table 9.5.4: Annual GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations 10 Table 9.5.5: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG assessment from Airport buildings and operations 12 Table 9.5.6: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline) 1 Table 9.5.7: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (future baseline) 2 Table 9.5.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 3 Table 9.5.9: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 4 Table 9.5.10: GHG emission factors used in the energy model 1 Table 9.5.11: GHG emission factors used for the water demand model 1 Table 9.5.12: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from WRATE (2018) 2 Table 9.5.13: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2015) 5

TABLE OF GRAPHICS

Graphic 9.5.1: Total GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations 9 Graphic 9.5.2: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (future baseline) 10 Graphic 9.5.3: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (DCO Project without mitigation) 11



1. INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for

Airport buildings and ground operations. The GHG emissions across this scope

come from energy use, treatment and disposal of waste arisings, and the

emissions from water use and waste water effluent treatment. Across these topics

this Appendix covers:

1. Assessment scope

2. Quantification methodology


4. GHG quantification results.

1.1.2 It presents GHG emissions based on two scenarios that are modelled for the

period 2022 to 2050:

1. Future baseline: Airport continues to be capped at 480,000 Air Transport

Movements (ATMs) with two runways



infrastructure of the preferred masterplan.

1.1.3 A further scenario, the ‘DCO Project with mitigation’, as required by the Airports

National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for this

Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) assessment.

1.1.4 Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and

greenhouse gases for comment and feedback (although at this stage of the

Project it has not been possible to assess their effects). The DCO Project with

mitigation will be fully assessed and reported in the Environmental Statement

(ES).

1.1.5 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects of

GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations. A preliminary

assessment of likely significant effects aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-

aspects is included in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases.



2. SCOPE

2.1.1 The GHG emissions across this scope come from energy use, treatment and

disposal of waste arisings, and the emissions from water use and waste water

effluent treatment.

2.1.2 Energy GHG emissions arise from electricity, natural gas, biomass, and

diesel/petrol consumption. This energy is consumed in buildings and Airport

infrastructure, providing heating, cooling, lighting and power needs, plus fuelling

airside land vehicles.

2.1.3 Waste GHG emissions arise from Airport waste disposal and treatment, including

waste arisings from terminals, aircraft, hotels, cargo, catering and other associated

businesses.

2.1.4 Water GHG emissions arise from the consumption of water (i.e. potable water

supply, including treatment and distribution) and water effluent treatment.

2.1.5 It is noted that the scope of the PEIR assessment is broader than the scope of

Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint in the case of the water and waste

components. The PEIR assessment includes operations over which Heathrow

does not have direct control, such as operations by third-party businesses. As

Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint adopts the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’

approach it does not report these third-party operations.





3.1.1 The Airport buildings and ground operations emissions have been quantified using

spreadsheet models developed independently for energy, waste and water. These

are further explained in Table 9.5.1.

3.1.2 Each model follows the quantification methodology as described in Chapter 7 of

the Heathrow EIA Scoping Report (Heathrow, May 2018). For Airport buildings

and ground operations, the Scoping Report specifically states the following:

Operational emissions will be quantified for all the activities for which reasonable data or

assumptions can be made.

The calculations will take an amount of activity (for example, total electricity consumed, or

waste generated) and multiply this by an appropriate emission factor.

Emissions factors which best represent the available knowledge at the time of the

assessment will be selected and, where appropriate, will represent the predicted emission

rates for the year of the assessment considered. For example, the carbon intensity of UK

grid electricity (gCO2e/kWh) will depend on the projected rate of decarbonisation over

time.

3.1.3 Parameters important to the GHG emission quantifications for energy, water and

waste can be summarised as follows:

1. Energy: Airport buildings, infrastructure and ground operations use energy.

Different fuel and electricity services are used by the Airport to meet this

need. To complete the GHG quantification, it is necessary to estimate how

much energy is used, and match this with the fuel and electricity sources

that deliver this. Different fuel and electricity sources have different carbon

intensities. The fuels used by Airport operations include biomass, natural

gas and diesel/petrol

2. Waste: To complete the GHG quantification for waste it was important to

consider the quantity of waste arisings, the composition of these arisings,

and the treatment and disposal methods used. Sources of waste include

Airport terminals, hotels, cargo, catering and other related businesses

3. Water: GHG emissions for Airport water use are determined by estimating

water demand composition volumes (i.e. allowing for both potable and non-

potable uses) and applying water supply GHG emissions intensity factors to

these. A similar calculation is undertaken for water treatment based on the

estimated volume of water effluent arising from Airport operations.



3.1.4 Table 9.5.1 provides more detail on the Airport buildings and ground operations

methodology.


Emissions model Methodology description

Energy Energy related GHG emissions include fuel and electricity consumed in the

Airport buildings and ground operations, including that used by airside

vehicles.

For energy demand, approximate and average efficiency baselines,

developed using 2017 energy consumption data and recent studies and

analysis, are used to represent varied populations and to estimate future

demands.

Passenger (PAX) and ATM data are used to obtain kWh/PAX (per

passenger) and kWh/ATM (per ATM) energy demands of terminal areas

and services.

Different inputs were used to test different scenarios (i.e. future baseline and DCO Project without mitigation). The model parameters for each scenario differ in terms of passenger and ATM forecasts as well as level of ambition in energy reduction. This will be explored further in the ES to accommodate the requirement in the ANPS to assess the difference between with and without mitigation scenarios. A market-based carbon factor of zero is used to reflect purchase of

renewable electricity. For diesel and petrol, GHG emission factors from the

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) (BEIS, 2017)

have been used. Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) 2012 GHG

emission factors have been used for other fuel types. These GHG emission

factors are presented in Annex B.

The calculation used to determine energy-related GHG emissions is: Equation 1: Energy emissions

F x GHGF = CO2e where F = Fuel consumption (i.e. oil / biomass / gas / electricity / diesel / petrol in kWh) GHGF = GHG emission factor for fuel type CO2e = GHG emissions

Waste The GHG emissions for waste disposal and treatment are based on the

proposed Airport waste strategy and the waste scenario model

underpinning this. This model multiplied the weight of arisings sent to each

end treatment route (i.e. composting, incineration, etc.), by the relevant

emission factor from WRATE (The Waste and Resources Assessment Tool

for the Environment, 2018) and from the journal Resources, Conservation

and Recycling (2015). These GHG emission factors are presented in Annex

B. The WRATE GHG emission factors have been selected as more




representative of reasonable worst case assumptions than the BEIS 2017

GHG emission factors adopted in Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint.

Detailed assumptions within the waste model are set out in Chapter 20:

Waste.

The model has used actual and calculated arisings for 2017 to generate

benchmarks such as waste arisings per passenger (from terminals and

airlines), per bedroom (for hotels) or per square metre floor area (for cargo,

catering and other associated businesses).

Waste arisings from terminal buildings and airlines have been increased in

proportion to predicted passenger numbers associated with the future

baseline and DCO Project without mitigation scenario.

The DCO Project without mitigation scenario assumes the worst case of no further waste prevention or improvements in recycling beyond current committed programmes. It has also incorporated modest waste prevention improvements in line with historic trends, and new infrastructure in the form of further cabin waste facilities and a new Resource Recovery Centre, together with enhanced re-use and recycling within terminals. The calculation used to determine waste-related GHG emissions is: Equation 2: Waste treatment emissions

ToW x GHGF = CO2e where ToW= Tonnes of waste at end treatment (recycling, composting, energy etc.) GHGF = GHG emission factor for end treatment CO2e = GHG emissions

Water The water use and water effluent treatment model accounts for GHG

emissions relating to water use at the Airport in buildings, for infrastructure,

and as required by operations. The model includes demand of both potable

and non-potable water, and also makes allowances for water efficiency and

leakage losses.

The model estimates the future water demand scenarios based on

passenger forecast numbers and estimated phasing of new terminal and

existing terminal reconfiguration.

The scenarios represented in the water model reflect the water strategy

outlined in Appendix 20.1: Draft Resource Management Plan. The

models were developed to address possible future water demand with

respect to choices on sources of non-potable supplies, target water

efficiency measures for fixtures and fittings, and leakage reduction activities.




The GHG emissions factors for water supply and water effluent treatment

have been obtained from BEIS, (2017). These GHG emission factors are

presented in Annex B.

The calculations used to determine water-related GHG emissions are: Equation 3: Water demand and treatment emissions

WS x CF = CO2e where WS= Water supply CF = GHG factor for water supply CO2e = GHG emissions And WT x CF = CO2e where WT= Water treatment CF = GHG emission factor for water treatment CO2e = GHG emissions




4.1.1 The assumptions adopted in the assessment are based on the need to represent a

reasonable worst-case assessment. Table 9.5.2 presents selected headline

assumptions used in the assessment of the DCO Project without mitigation

scenario.

Table 9.5.2: Assumptions for reasonable worst-case assessment of Airport buildings and ground operations

Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the without mitigation scenario

Passenger numbers Passenger forecasts are provided for 2026, 2027, 2030, 2036, 2040 and 2050. For intermediate years, passenger numbers are based on a linear relationship between years.

Air transport movements ATM forecasts are provided for 2026, 2027, 2030, 2036, 2040 and 2050. For intermediate years flight numbers are based on a linear relationship between years.

Energy For energy use, approximate and average efficiency benchmarks,

developed using 2017 energy consumption data and recent studies and

analysis, are used to establish appropriate benchmarks for estimating

future energy use. These benchmarks represent all energy used, regulated

and unregulated, by both Heathrow and third parties.

Building energy demands are assumed to increase proportionally with

passengers. Ground operations and airside transport activities are

assumed to increase proportionally with the number of ATMs.

It is assumed that current shares of energy demand or consumption will

remain constant. For example, the current proportions of energy use by

Heathrow, compared with energy use by third parties, has been assumed

to remain constant over the study period. The distribution of passengers

across the terminals is also assumed to remain constant while passenger

number increase (except in the instance of new terminals coming on line).

Waste The assessment of waste arisings is related to passenger numbers and

improvements that are expected through interventions that minimise waste

and increase recycling rates. However, these are limited to current

committed programmes and modest waste prevention improvements in line

with historic trends.

In practice actual future rates may vary as they are partially dependent on

passenger actions to participate in waste and resource initiatives, and

national and international drivers to improve overall resource efficiency and

shifts to a circular economy.



Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the without mitigation scenario

Water The assessment has assumed that all non-potable demands will be met by

on-site non-potable water sources.

Future use of borehole water at the Airport was based on the existing

abstraction license held by Heathrow. It was assumed that the license

would remain valid and abstraction at required rates would be possible.

Greywater supplies are based on a micro-component split of current and

future water uses, and the estimated volumes of water available, and

suited, for greywater reuse (for example hand basins, showers, etc).

4.1.2 Table 9.5.3 covers the limitations for each model. This includes limitations

pertaining to parameters such as simplifications in calculation approach, scope

gaps, and data quality (e.g. age, quality, type etc.).

Table 9.5.3: Limitations of Airport buildings and ground operations assessment

Project parameter Limitations

Energy The heating, cooling and power demands have been estimated using Heathrow

energy benchmarks based on passenger numbers (kWh/PAX). A more

sophisticated methodology would incorporate existing and future terminal areas

to develop kWh/m2 benchmarks specific for Heathrow, which may be more

representative of building energy performance in use. The calculation approach

may be revised to incorporate floor area estimates for ES.

Waste

The approach to waste forecasting is subject to uncertainties around future

resource efficiency improvements. Waste composition is based on available

2013 data and is subject to unpredictable changes over time due to consumption

habits that may change across Heathrow and third parties.

Recycling and diversion performance is dependent upon passenger and retailer

actions and is not all within Heathrow’s control. Rates of change and quantities

of individual waste streams may differ from those applied in the model.

Limitations relating to the waste model are discussed in Appendix 20.3

Water The on-site infrastructure design has not been fully developed at this stage. The

capital expenditure and operational expenditure carbon footprint of planned

future Airport infrastructure for on-site water treatment systems has not been

fixed. Emissions arising from the operations of such facilities have yet to be fully

accounted for in the emissions model.




5.1.1 The results are presented for the scope outlined in Section 2 as total GHG

emissions from all activities and phases. In each case the results are presented for

the scenarios of:

1. Future baseline

2. DCO Project without mitigation.


additional assessment years.

5.2 Total Airport buildings and ground operations emissions

5.2.1 Graphic 9.5.1 shows the total GHG emissions for both scenarios (future baseline

and DCO Project without mitigation). It can be seen that the DCO Project without

mitigation scenario has greater annual emissions than the future baseline scenario

in each year of the study period. It follows that cumulatively it also has a greater

emission profile of 2.4 MtCO2e compared with 1.7 MtCO2e respectively.

Graphic 9.5.1: Total GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations



5.2.2 Table 9.5.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all Airport buildings and

ground operations for core and additional assessment years as described in

Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases, Section 9.4: Scope of the

assessment, with the year of maximum GHG emissions for each scenario

presented.

Table 9.5.4: Annual GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations

Scenario


Base year


Year of maximum release of

first phase of capacity


runway operations

Year of minimum

ANPS capacity


Year of maximum

GHG emissions

2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)

Future baseline 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.09

(2022)


0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.10

(2027)

5.2.3 Graphic 9.5.2 and Graphic 9.5.3 show the total GHG emissions split by energy,

waste, and water for each scenario.

Graphic 9.5.2: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (future baseline)



Graphic 9.5.3: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (DCO Project without mitigation)




Table 9.5.5: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG assessment from Airport buildings and operations

Term Definition

ANPS Airports National Policy Statement



CAPEX Capital expenditure


Carbon credit A permit which allows a country or organization to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide (or an equivalent amount of other greenhouse gases) and which can be traded if the full allowance is not used

CO2 Carbon dioxide


EIA Environmental impact assessment





OPEX Operational expenditure

PAX Number of passengers


UK United Kingdom

WRATE The Water and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment



7. BIBLIOGRAPHY


Heathrow. (May 2018). Airport Expansion EIA Scoping Report Volume 1 Main Report, Section 7.

Heathrow, May 2018

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (2017). BEIS Greenhouse gas reporting: Conversion factors 2017. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhous

e-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2017 [Accessed 21 February 2019].

BEIS, 2017

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (June 2018). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2018. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhous

e-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2018 [Accessed 21 February 2018]

BEIS, 2018

Waste and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment. (2018). UK: Golder Associates Ltd.

Waste and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment, 2018

APPENDICES






Appendix 9.5 Annex A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

Classification: Confidential

ANNEX A AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS FULL RESULTS TABLE

Table 9.5.6: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline)


Future baseline

Year Energy Waste treatment Water demand and

treatment TOTAL

2022 0.062 0.021 0.002 0.085

2023 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084

2024 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084

2025 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084

2026 0.057 0.021 0.002 0.080

2027 0.056 0.021 0.002 0.079

2028 0.055 0.021 0.002 0.078

2029 0.053 0.021 0.002 0.076

2030 0.039 0.021 0.002 0.062

2031 0.037 0.021 0.003 0.061

2032 0.036 0.021 0.003 0.060

2033 0.034 0.022 0.003 0.059

2034 0.033 0.022 0.003 0.058

2035 0.030 0.022 0.003 0.055

2036 0.029 0.022 0.003 0.054

2037 0.028 0.022 0.003 0.053

2038 0.027 0.022 0.003 0.052

2039 0.026 0.022 0.003 0.051

2040 0.025 0.022 0.003 0.050

2041 0.024 0.022 0.003 0.049

2042 0.023 0.022 0.003 0.048

2043 0.022 0.022 0.003 0.047

2044 0.021 0.022 0.003 0.046

2045 0.021 0.022 0.003 0.046

2046 0.020 0.022 0.003 0.045

2047 0.019 0.022 0.003 0.044

2048 0.018 0.022 0.003 0.043

2049 0.017 0.022 0.003 0.042

2050 0.016 0.022 0.003 0.041





Table 9.5.7: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (future baseline)


Future baseline

Year Traded Energy Non- traded Energy TOTAL

2022 0.003 0.003 0.062

2023 0.003 0.003 0.061

2024 0.003 0.003 0.061

2025 0.003 0.003 0.061

2026 0.003 0.003 0.057

2027 0.003 0.003 0.056

2028 0.003 0.003 0.055

2029 0.003 0.003 0.053

2030 0.001 0.003 0.039

2031 0.001 0.002 0.037

2032 0.001 0.002 0.036

2033 0.001 0.002 0.034

2034 0.001 0.002 0.033

2035 0.001 0.002 0.030

2036 0.001 0.002 0.029

2037 0.001 0.002 0.028

2038 0.001 0.002 0.027

2039 0.001 0.001 0.026

2040 0.001 0.001 0.025

2041 0.001 0.001 0.024

2042 0.001 0.001 0.023

2043 0.001 0.001 0.022

2044 0.001 0.001 0.021

2045 0.001 0.001 0.021

2046 0.001 0.001 0.020

2047 0.001 0.001 0.019

2048 0.001 0.001 0.018

2049 0.001 0.000 0.017

2050 0.001 0.000 0.016

Cumulative Total

0.047 0.054 1.011







Year Energy Waste treatment Water demand and

treatment TOTAL

2022 0.063 0.021 0.002 0.086

2023 0.064 0.021 0.003 0.088

2024 0.064 0.022 0.003 0.089

2025 0.064 0.022 0.003 0.089

2026 0.063 0.022 0.003 0.088

2027 0.068 0.028 0.003 0.099

2028 0.064 0.030 0.004 0.098

2029 0.064 0.031 0.004 0.099

2030 0.050 0.033 0.004 0.087

2031 0.050 0.034 0.004 0.088

2032 0.049 0.035 0.004 0.088

2033 0.048 0.036 0.004 0.088

2034 0.046 0.037 0.004 0.087

2035 0.045 0.037 0.004 0.086

2036 0.044 0.038 0.004 0.086

2037 0.042 0.038 0.004 0.084

2038 0.041 0.038 0.004 0.083

2039 0.038 0.038 0.004 0.080

2040 0.036 0.039 0.004 0.079

2041 0.035 0.039 0.004 0.078

2042 0.033 0.039 0.004 0.076

2043 0.032 0.039 0.004 0.075

2044 0.030 0.039 0.004 0.073

2045 0.029 0.039 0.004 0.072

2046 0.027 0.039 0.004 0.070

2047 0.026 0.040 0.004 0.070

2048 0.025 0.040 0.004 0.069

2049 0.023 0.040 0.004 0.067

2050 0.022 0.040 0.004 0.066

Cumulative Total

1.285 0.994 0.109 2.388




Table 9.5.9: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)



Year Traded Energy Non- traded Energy TOTAL

2022 0.003 0.003 0.063

2023 0.003 0.003 0.064

2024 0.003 0.003 0.064

2025 0.003 0.003 0.064

2026 0.003 0.003 0.063

2027 0.003 0.004 0.068

2028 0.003 0.004 0.064

2029 0.003 0.004 0.064

2030 0.001 0.004 0.050

2031 0.001 0.003 0.050

2032 0.002 0.003 0.049

2033 0.002 0.003 0.048

2034 0.002 0.003 0.046

2035 0.002 0.003 0.045

2036 0.002 0.003 0.044

2037 0.002 0.003 0.042

2038 0.002 0.002 0.041

2039 0.001 0.002 0.038

2040 0.002 0.002 0.036

2041 0.002 0.002 0.035

2042 0.002 0.002 0.033

2043 0.002 0.002 0.032

2044 0.002 0.002 0.030

2045 0.002 0.001 0.029

2046 0.002 0.001 0.027

2047 0.002 0.001 0.026

2048 0.002 0.001 0.025

2049 0.002 0.001 0.023

2050 0.002 0.001 0.022

Cumulative Total

0.056 0.072 1.285




ANNEX B AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS GHG EMISSION FACTORS

Energy

Table 9.5.10: GHG emission factors used in the energy model

Parameter Carbon factor

(kgCO2e/kWh)

Source

Electricity carbon factor (market-based) 0.000 Zero emissions from 2017 to reflect

purchase of green electricity

Natural gas carbon factor 0.216 SAP 2012 mains gas factor (3-year)

Fixed oil carbon factor 0.298 SAP 2012 heating oil factor (3-year)

Biomass carbon factor 0.016 SAP 2012 wood chips factor (3-year)

Diesel/petrol carbon factor 0.261 Department for Business, Energy &

Industrial Strategy Greenhouse gas

reporting: conversion factors 2017. From

the spreadsheet Conversion Factors

2017 Condensed Set

Water

GHG emission factors for water have been retrieved from the BEIS conversion factors

2018 (BEIS, 2018), tabs for Water Treatment and Water Demand.

Table 9.5.11: GHG emission factors used for the water demand model

Activity Type Unit kg CO2e

Water treatment Water treatment cubic metres 0.708

million litres 708.0

Water supply Water supply cubic metres 0.344

million litres 344.0




Waste

Table 9.5.12: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from WRATE (2018)

Material

in current

Heathrow

Model

Material

equivalent

in WRATE

Combustion

(with power

generation)

Composting Landfill

(kgCO2e)

Specific notes /

assumptions

Cardboar

d

Paper and

card

16.4 n/a 1,201.0 Paper and card primary

category in WRATE. Assumed

50% 'card packaging' and 50%

'other card' secondary

category

WRATE does not include

direct process emission data

for paper recycling - it

assumes a direct 1:1 offset

with virgin paper which is not

accounted for in 'direct process

emissions'.

Plastic

film

Plastic film 1,754.0 n/a 26.2 Plastic film primary category in

WRATE. Assumed 31% 'bags'

and 69% 'packaging film'

secondary category (default

proportion under DEFRA 2007

WR0119 MSW waste

composition data in WRATE).

Recycling is plastic film

(LLDPE) to pellets

Food

waste

Food waste 16.4 12.2 589.0 Recycling is AD (assumed

small scale low solids BIOGEN

GREENFINCH process). Food

waste is a secondary category

in WRATE, assumed 100%

food waste.

Paper Paper and

card

16.4 n/a 1,080.0 Paper and card primary


41% newspapers, 18%

magazines, 22% recyclable

paper and 19% other paper as

secondary categories (default


WR0119 MSW composition

data in WRATE)



for card/paper recycling - it




Material

in current

Heathrow

Model

Material

equivalent

in WRATE

Combustion

(with power

generation)

Composting Landfill

(kgCO2e)

Specific notes /

assumptions



accounted for when looking at

'direct process emissions'.

PET/HDPE Other

dense

plastic

1,900.0 n/a 97.5 Dense plastics primary


31% drinks bottles, 38% other

packaging and 31% other

dense plastic (default


WR0119 MSW waste

composition data in WRATE)

Mixed

Plastic

Unspecified

dense

plastic

1,996.0 n/a 97.5 Dense plastics primary

category in WRATE. 100%

'unspecified dense plastic'

assumed

Glass Glass 16.5 n/a 21.9 Glass is primary category in

WRATE. 5.5% assumed to be

clear bottles, 39.9% assumed

to be clear bottles, 44.2%

assumed to be brown bottles

and 10.4% assumed to be jars.

Recycling is assumed to be

closed loop (i.e. back into

glass packaging)

Ferrous Ferrous

metal

Not possible

to model as

single material

stream

n/a 6.2 Metal recycling is closed loop

i.e. offsetting primary

production. Ferrous metal is

primary category in WRATE.

99% assumed to be steel food

and drink cans. 1% assumed

to be other ferrous. (default


WR0119 MSW waste




for ferrous metal recycling - it

assumes a 1:1 offset with

virgin steel which is not


emissions'




Material

in current

Heathrow

Model

Material

equivalent

in WRATE

Combustion

(with power

generation)

Composting Landfill

(kgCO2e)

Specific notes /

assumptions

Non

Ferrous

Non-ferrous

metal

Not possible

to model as

single material

stream

n/a 14.4 Metal recycling is closed loop

i.e. offsetting primary

production. Non-ferrous metal

is primary category in WRATE.

35.6% assumed to be

aluminium food and drink

cans. 19.7% assumed to be

foil. 44.7% assumed to be

other non-ferrous (default


WR0119 MSW waste




for non ferrous metal recycling

- it assumes a 1:1 offset with

virgin aluminium which is not


emissions'

Paper

Cups

Unspecified

paper

17.1 n/a 1,782.0 Paper and card is primary

category in WRATE. No paper

cup or paper packaging

secondary category. Assumed

to be 100% 'unspecified paper'



for card/paper recycling - it



accounted for when looking at

'direct process emissions'.

Other/

Residual

Unspecified

hazardous

household

waste items

571 n/a 681.0 Specific hazardous household


Assumed 100% 'unspecified

hazardous household'

Liquid/

Process

Loss

Oil 838.0 n/a 143.0 Specific hazardous household


Assumed 100% 'oil'

Wood Wood 16.4 n/a 1,252.0 Wood is primary category in

WRATE. Assumed 50% wood

packaging and 50% non-

packaging wood. Recycling is

wood chip to compost (only




Material

in current

Heathrow

Model

Material

equivalent

in WRATE

Combustion

(with power

generation)

Composting Landfill

(kgCO2e)

Specific notes /

assumptions

wood recycling process in

WRATE)

Clothing Unspecified

textiles

744.0 n/a 579.0 Textiles is primary category in

WRATE. 51% assumed to be

artificial textiles, 49% assumed

to be natural textiles as per

default DEFRA

Other

hazardous

waste

recycling

(including

tubes and

sharps)

Clinical

waste

143 n/a 140.0 Clinical waste is secondary

category in WRATE. 100%

assumed to be clinical waste.

Table 9.5.13: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2015)

Material in current Heathrow

Model

Material equivalent in Resources, Conservation

and Recycling

Recycling

Cardboard Cardboard 559

Plastic film Mixed plastic 339

Food waste N/A N/A

Paper Paper 1576

PET/HDPE PET 155

Mixed Plastic Mixed Plastic 339

Glass Mixed glass 395

Ferrous Steel can 529

Non Ferrous Aluminium can 1113

Paper Cups Paper 1576

Other/ Residual N/A N/A

Liquid/ Process Loss N/A N/A

Wood Wood 502

Clothing Textiles 401




Material in current Heathrow

Model

Material equivalent in Resources, Conservation

and Recycling

Recycling

Other hazardous waste

recycling (including tubes and

sharps)

N/A N/A

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