Volcano Observatory Best Practices Workshop:Near-term forecasting

Erice, Italy11-15 September 2011

WOVO

Purpose• To learn from each other: successes

and failures; what works and what doesn’t.

• To develop a guide to what practices are most likely to be effective.

• To establish more regular communication among observatories.

• To create a stronger international voice for volcano observatories in volcano risk mitigation through strengthening of WOVO.

Why here and now?• Recent eruptions (Eyjafjallajokal, Merapi, Grimsvotn, Cordon de

Caulle/Puyehue) highlight volcano risk as an international problem, suggesting the need for a more internationally integrated approach.

• Interest for global experience-sharing among observatory scientists, of a sort that is difficult to accomplish at scientific meetings.

• Growing complexity and cost of modern volcano-monitoring and hazard communication, precluding a go-it-alone approach.

• Availability of an ideal venue, Erice, for an in-depth discussion.

Expected or potential benefits• Improved performance of national volcano hazard programs.• Greater recognition, at both the national and international

levels, of the importance of volcano observatories.• Reduction in development and implementation costs for new

models, techniques, and instrumentation.• For discussion: Rapid global dissemination of warnings that

have international implications.

What comes next?• Writing and publication of a document representing our

consensus on best practices in short-term forecasting.• This meeting is a “proof of concept experiment”. If successful,

this can begin a series on best practices workshops in important areas such as monitoring instrumentation, risk analysis, hazard communication, eruption modeling, etc.

1841 2004