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Volcanic Ash - developments since 2010Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation, June 2014

London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC)

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• The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated centre, responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland and the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic.

Lessons learned

• Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics)

• Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations to verify forecasts

• What are we forecasting? (leading to new Visible/discernible ash definitions)

• Need for operators to assume responsibility for safe operation in contaminated airspace

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MoU Steering Group

Volcanic Ash Stakeholder Mapping

VAAC London, ADAQ & Observations:Satellite, Obs

Programme, OBR

MET OFFICEICAO led

IAVWOPSG

IUGG/WMO VASAG

CAA led UK VAAG

DfT ledVAORG

EuroControl/ECEACCC

Green box: UK Met OfficeBlue star: GroupsGrey box: External Organisations and groupings Organisation belonging to linked grouping

SAGE/COBR

IATA (Airlines)

IFALPA (Pilots)

CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators)

NATS

European ATMCommunity

ICAO

ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries)

Met & Atmospheric Agencies e.g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET

Volcano ObservatoriesIMO

Research Centres/

Academia

NCAS

BGS

VAACs

EU Programmes & Activities e.g.

EUMETSAT, ESA, EUFAR, EASA

EC

UK Civil aviation Cabinet Office

OEMs

Defence

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Cloud

Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer

Aircraft

Lidar

Satellite

Sun Photometer

Radar

Enhanced Volcanic ash Observations

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National and European Ceilometer & Lidar Networks

Met Office LIDARNET

Improved Volcanic ash modelling

• All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on meteorological data and ash observations

• “Eruption Source Parameters” include start time, height, location, mass eruption rate and the variation of these with time (from Iceland Met Office)

• Met Office Global NWP is used for volcanic ash applications

• Moving to 17 km resolution in July

1.5km gridUp to 36hr6-hourly update

25km gridUp to 144hr6-hourly update

Resuspended Ash

• Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME

• Daily resuspended ash forecast produced for Iceland Met Office since late 2010

• Work with Bristol University on a resuspended ash event in August 2013 (paper submitted)

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The VAAC Process

VAAC chart

Volcano data

Met Office Weather forecast models

Weather observations

NAME dispersion model

Other models

Forecaster

Satellite + other observations

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New forecasting tools and products

Annotated satellite images – used in daily Science/CAA briefing during an eruption

Concentration charts

Conclusion

• Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored and forecasts of ash movement are issued.

• Met Office will utilise dispersion models to understand how any volcanic ash will move in the atmosphere.

• Met Office will communicate this information to all airspace users utilising agreed products.

• But it is operators that determine safe operations in contaminated airspace through their Safety Risk Assessments.