Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014
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Transcript of Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014
IntroductionIn our previous report we had curated online conversations around politicians and political
parties; and analyzed them in detail, using social media monitoring tools.
In the duration between that report and this, some important events have taken place,
example AAP forming a government in Delhi, Kejriwal resigning from his position as Chief
Minister of Delhi, state elections in five states, RIL Gas Scam coming into the open, etc.
This report is an attempt to relook at and analyze online conversations of the past three
months to find out if these incidents have had a noteworthy impact on online political
conversations, and if yes, to what degree.
Overview of Content
State-wise preference levels for political parties
Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties in the country
Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on Facebook and Twitter
Words associated with top political parties and the Parliament
Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations)
Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online)
This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refer to those that have been arrived at by analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (December 2013 to February 2014), and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.
Total Mentions – 1.7 Million
The total number of mentions for political parties, from December 2013 to February 2014, is 1.7 Million. This includes positive, negative and neutral mentions for the parties.
46.06
33.86
15.36
0.62
0.47
0.61
0.460.39
State-wise Levels of Political Conversations
An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number
of online political conversations came from users in Maharashtra and Delhi.
Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations, while the
number of political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low.
We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political
conversations in these regions across the top three political parties.
25.90 21.7311.26
6.02 5.28 4.97 4.89 3.31 3.28 2.49
27.3824.86
9.66
5.35 4.69 4.37 4.40 2.91 3.42 2.02
20.6327.55
10.66
6.13 7.19 4.45 4.302.73 2.78 2.43
December January February
State-wise Conversations - Congress
152,784 214,910 988,309Mentions
There was a jump of 546% seen in the conversations from December to February for Congress.
Online Mentions for Congress
Location PostsDelhi 26.4%
Maharashtra 22.2%Karnataka 10.7%
Location PostsDelhi 24.7%
Maharashtra 22.5%Karnataka 12.8%
Location PostsDelhi 27.6%
Maharashtra 26.4%Karnataka 9.4%
Location PostsMaharashtra 20.9%
Delhi 19.9%Karnataka 11.1%
Location PostsDelhi 25.3%
Maharashtra 21%Karnataka 11.2%
Location PostsMaharashtra 26.3%
Delhi 18.8%Karnataka 10.2%
Positive Sentiment
Negative Sentiment
• In Delhi, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently increased.
• In Maharashtra, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased.
• In Karnataka, the positive sentiment has decreased from December to January but increased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased.
December January February
There was an increase in negative conversations in Maharashtra in the month of February because of a rape that took place in Congress’ office in Kerala. Also Congress was mentioned in association with the RIL Gas Scam, which resulted into an outburst about the issue.
Conversation Examples
27.0520.89
11.346.07 5.58 5.00 4.80 3.15 3.13 2.13
24.98
23.40
11.95
5.30 5.30 4.68 4.583.54 3.27 2.25
23.36
21.04
11.42
7.56 7.185.41 4.15
3.27 3.042.09
December January February
State-wise Conversations - BJP
92,948 138,462 733,187Mentions
There was a jump of 688% seen in the conversations from December to February for BJP.
Online Mentions for BJP
Location PostsDelhi 27.2%
Maharashtra 21.3%Karnataka 12%
Location PostsDelhi 26.8%
Maharashtra 22%Karnataka 12.3%
Location PostsDelhi 23.7%
Maharashtra 22.5%Karnataka 12.8%
Location PostsMaharashtra 22.7%
Delhi 21.2%Karnataka 9.1%
Location PostsDelhi 25.9%
Maharashtra 22.7%Karnataka 12.5%
Location PostsMaharashtra 25.2%
Delhi 20.3%Karnataka 10.2%
Positive Sentiment
Negative Sentiment
• In Delhi, the positive as well as negative mentions show a consistent decrease.
• In Maharashtra, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January by decreased in February.
• In Karnataka, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February.
December January February
Negative conversations have been around BJP being silent over the RIL Gas Scam. Also NarendraModi mentioning that Pranab Mukherjee should have been named as PM, drew a lot of flak for BJP from across all quarters.
Conversation Examples
State-wise Conversations - AAP
28.3321.06
10.916.00 4.84 4.83 4.03 3.43 3.30 2.13
26.47
22.49
10.38
5.58 5.00 4.98 3.78 3.48 3.30 2.48
27.88
21.75
10.95
5.91 4.79 3.98 3.91 3.83 3.09 2.29
December January February
83,720 131,941 341,964Mentions
There was a jump of 308% seen in the conversations from December to February for AAP.
Online Mentions for AAP
Location PostsDelhi 28.4%
Maharashtra 20.8%Karnataka 11.5%
Location PostsDelhi 27.3%
Maharashtra 22.2%Karnataka 11.4%
Location PostsDelhi 25.7%
Maharashtra 20.5%Karnataka 12.8%
Location PostsDelhi 25%
Maharashtra 23.6%Karnataka 12%
Location PostsDelhi 29.7%
Maharashtra 21.2%Karnataka 11%
Location PostsMaharashtra 24.8%
Delhi 19.9%Karnataka 12.3%
Positive Sentiment
Negative Sentiment
• In Delhi, the positive mentions consistently decreased from December to February while the negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February.
• In Maharashtra, the positive mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February while negative mentions consistently decreased.
• In Karnataka, the positive mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February while the negative mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February.
December January February
Conversation Examples
Delhites felt that Kejriwal did not live up to his promises and has ruined the state. They also felt that the RIL Gas Scam expose was to gain political mileage and that it targeted only specific party members.
Online Conversations about Political Parties
Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each party is associated with.
These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular party, in online conversations.
The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political party in the same context.
Positive Buzz around Congress
Words % Postssupport 41.14leader 24.41
candidate 14.58power 19.88
Total Mentions – 26,974
Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz
words
Some people feel that Rahul Gandhi is a dynamic leader and is the future of the nation. Die-hard Congress supporters believe in him for a progressive
India.
Positive words that Congress is associated
with: support, leader, vote,
candidate, power
Negative Buzz around Congress
Words % Postscorruption 38.84
protest 16.27defeat 15.20
problem 7.62expose 5.69
Total Mentions – 35,395
Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz
words
There has been a lot of discussion about Congress focusing on scams rather than the development of the country. Rahul Gandhi’s comments on the 1984
riots drew a lot of criticism from all quarters.
Negative words that Congress is associated
with: corruption, defeat, protest, problem,
expose
Positives
Negatives
Examples of Conversation
Positive Buzz around BJP
Words % Postsleader 34.59
support 31.41development 17.27
inspire 6.21admire 5.30
responsible 5.22
Total Mentions – 28,336
Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz
words
There is hope in the country that BJP will bring in development in India and Narendra Modi is the leader who will inspire the change.
Positive words that BJP is associated with:
leader, support, development, inspire, admire, responsible
Negative Buzz around BJP
Words % Postscorruption 24.46
corrupt 16.20expose 11.27
cheatercongbjp 11.04opposition 10.47
blame 9.82rilgasscam 8.46
Total Mentions – 22,902
Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz
words
There was criticism around BJP for being silent on their alleged involvement in the RIL Gas scam.
Negative words that BJP is associated with:corruption, corrupt,
expose, cheatercongbjp, opposition
Examples of Conversation
Positives
Negatives
Positive Buzz around AAP
Words % Postsreformist 38.23leader 13.52
honesty 12.83visionary 9.36powerful 9.22
Total Mentions – 11,519
Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz
words
Aam Aadmi party leaders have received a lot of good comments for being honest and powerful visionaries, reforming the country, and working towards a
better future through their efforts.
Positive words that AAP is associated with:
reformist, leader, honesty, visionary,
powerful
Negative Buzz around AAP
Words % Postsresignation 5332
protest 4351expose 1610
bhagodakejri 1072liar 838
Total Mentions – 13,997
Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz
words
People were angry with Kejriwal for not fulfilling promises and termed his resignation as an escapist move. There were protests by Aam Aadmi Sena
outside Kejriwal’s house which drew a lot of negative attention.
Negative words that AAP is associated with:resignation, protest,
expose, bhagodakejri, liar.
Examples of Conversation
Positives
Negatives
Topics % Postspepper spray 44.99
telangana 20.76impasse 6.36anarchy 6.16
peaceful dharna 5.75street vendor 3.16
Total Mentions – 8,721
Buzz Around The Parliament
The pepper spray attack by Congress MP Ladgapati was quite talked about. The approval of the TeleganaBill and the passing of the Street Vendors’ Bill gained a lot of traction. Also Kejriwal being called an
anarchist for a peaceful dharna was discussed quite a lot.
Conversation Examples
29.42%70.58%
This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political conversations from men and women.
The support for BJP is higher than that for Congress and AAP from men, while there is higher favorabilitytowards Congress, from women.
Gender-wise Support for Political Parties
23.74%76.26%
23.79%76.21%
Congress BJP AAP
Sentiment Analysis
The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect to the total number of conversations.
A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-on-month.
Posts/Conversations refer to any online platforms.
Sentiment Analysis - December
From a minister being caught taking a bribe, to failure to install water meters, to corruption, were the prime reason for negative conversations around Congress. Corruption and the BJP’s inefficiency in the past resulted in a higher percentage of negative buzz around them.
Congress
BJP
AAP
Negative Positive
51.7 % 48.3 %
51.2 % 48.8 %
42.8 % 57.2 %
Conversation Examples
Sentiment Analysis - January
Arrests of BJP leaders for taking dowry, and murder of a RTI activist, resulted in strong negative conversation around BJP. AAP not living up to people’s expectations was the prime reason why there were a high number of negative conversations around them.
Congress
BJP
AAP
Negative Positive
46.9 % 53.1 %
51.4 % 48.6 %
49.9 % 50.1 %
Conversation Examples
Sentiment Analysis - February
There were 2 AAP members who were caught in an immigration fraud in UK, thus increasing negative conversations. BJP’s silence over the RIL Gas scam drew a lot of flak from people.
Congress
BJP
AAP
Negative Positive
52.8 % 47.2 %
54.3 % 45.7 %
65.5 % 34.5 %
Conversation Examples
Sentiment Analysis Over Time
Congress BJP AAP
Congress: There has been a mixed response in the sentiment for Congress over the three months, but the sentiment is mostly on the negative side.
BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase throughout the period, while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.
AAP: There has been a consistent increase in negative sentiment which has skyrocketed to 65.5% in the month of February.
52.8
46.9
51.7
47.2
53.1
48.3
0 50 100
February
January
December
54.3
51.9
51.2
45.7
48.1
48.8
0 50 100
February
January
December
65.5
49.9
42.8
34.5
50.1
57.2
0 50 100
February
January
December
Top Issues Discussed on Twitter
These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months
Mentions – 12,546
56.09 53.13
77.88
50.0056.15
43.91 46.87
22.12
50.0043.85
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
BJP Ineffective TMC Hazare BJP VKS Join BJP LJP Ally Congress TRS Merge
Retweets
Tweets
Top Issues Discussed on Facebook
These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months
Mentions – 3,938
35.20
19.68
9.90 9.42 8.99 8.46 8.35
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
Aap Ambani Charges
AAP Govt Form
AAP Parrikar attack
Cong Lalu Alliance
TMC Hazare Aap mining investigation
BJP Impotent
% of Posts
Conversation Examples
Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity
Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google+,
and YouTube emerges as the most popular politician on social media.
Owing to a higher Twitter following, and more YouTube subscribers and video views;
Arvind Kejriwal comes second, followed by Shashi Tharoor who has a high number
of fans and followers on Facebook and Twitter respectively.
Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity
Standing Politicians FacebookNo. of fans
FacebookEngagement
Rate (%)
TwitterNo. of
Followers
TweetsGoogle+
No. offollowers
Most no. of views for a
video
YoutubeSubscribers
WeightageScore
1 Narendra Modi 1,04,02,636 9.41 33,76,337 3,902 11,76,355 7,35,960 1,22,665 35,89,620
2 Arvind Kejriwal 42,60,584 6 13,57,004 2,472 2,008 50,330 1,966 14,09,851
3 Shashi Tharoor 1,21,621 3.21 20,89,894 21,279 476 32,672 191 5,57,253
4 Manmohan Singh 4,60,479 1 10,82,350 4,295 0 2,20,120 51 4,07,939
5 Sushma Swaraj 2,09,190 0 9,25,712 3,005 0 1,89,921 588 3,02,927
6 Rajnath Singh 9,74,494 20.5 1,75,314 445 694 214 8 2,87,533
7 Arun Jaitley 496,788 18.35 109,392 318 0 12,448 75 1,52,815
8 Mamata Banerjee 5,94,516 8.92 0 0 0 0 0 1,48,630
9 Omar Abdullah 61,801 6.36 4,44,260 6,388 0 0 0 1,26,835
10 Akhilesh Yadav 402,537 6.59 38429 75 0 29,013 8 1,13,148
Weightage 0.25x 0.1x 0.25x 0.05x 0.05x 0.1x 0.1x
Basis of Calculation
Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each
social network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and
then taking a total of each factor multiplied by its weightage.
Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people
talking about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.
Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook
9.41
6.28
3.210.9
20.518.35
8.92
6.36
6.59
Engagement Rate (%)
Narendra Modi Arvind Kejriwal Shashi Tharoor Manmohan Singh Sushma Swaraj Rajnath Singh Arun Jaitley Mamata Banerjee Omar Abdullah Akhilesh Yadav
Rajnath Singh has the highest engagement rate, 20.5%, followed by Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi who have engagement rates of 18.35% and 9.41% respectively.
Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter
Shashi Tharoor with 21,279 tweets is the most engaged politician on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 6,388 tweets and Manmohan Singh with 4,295 tweets are 2nd and 3rd respectively.
Based on the number of tweets
21,279 6,388 4,295 3,902 3,005
2,542 2,472 1,912 445 318
Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter
Narendra Modi dominates the list with 33 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 20 lakh followers
Based on number of followers
3,376,337 2,089,894 1,357,004 1,082,350 925,712
444,260 175,314 140,576 119,222 109,392
Looking AheadThe initial positive buzz for AAP seems to have declined post his forming the government and then resigning as Chief Minister of Delhi.
Rajnath Singh has moved from position three to position one when it comes to being the most engaged politician on social media and Arvind Kejriwal has been ousted from the list of top three most engaged politicians.
As the run up to the polls continues, there have been events like Mamta Banerjee’smeeting with Anna Hazare, Rahul Gandhi’s interview with Times Now, exposes of supposed chinks in AAP’s armour, some members not being happy with the seats they have been allocated, etc. which have generated a fair amount of online conversations.
An analysis of these and a look into how much they have impacted online India’s political disposition will form the bases of our next report.
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