VNI Global (Andres Maz), Power Point

Cisco Visual Networking Index:Internet Traffic Growth Forecast

Lucas Oloco, Director Service Provider

June 9 2014

9th Annual

Latin America Forecast Update 2013–2018

Andres Maz, Director Technology Policy

Cisco Confidential 2© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Network Effect of the Beautiful GameJust the IP streaming and digital broadcast of the World Cup is estimated to be 4.3 Exabytes…

…Nearly equal to the total 2013 broadband traffic for Australia (4.6 Exabytes)


VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Exabytes per

Month

IP Traffic in 20130

10,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

60,000,000,000 49,918,701,324 51

Projected in 2010 Actual


Key Trends

1 Dramatic growth continues… driven by video

2Wide range of devices, applications and requirements

3 Wireless surpasses Fixed


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

51 62 76 91

110 132

Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineGlobal IP Traffic will Increase 2.6X from 2013 to 2018


21% CAGR

Exabytes per

Month


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

1,000,000,0002,000,000,0003,000,000,0004,000,000,0005,000,000,0006,000,000,0007,000,000,0008,000,000,0009,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

3,487,829,816.2

4,361,390,824.6

5,318,015,818.9

6,362,650,465.7

7,576,491,913.0

8,930,541,953.9

Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineLATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018


21% CAGR

Exabytes per

Month


More Video Viewing79% of All IP Traffic

Faster Broadband Speeds2.6-Fold Speed Increase

More Devices21 Billion

Connections

More Internet Users4 Billion Internet Users

Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018

Growth Catalys

ts


Latin America IP Video Traffic GrowthIP Video Will Account for 81% of Global IP Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per

Month

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

1,000,000,0002,000,000,0003,000,000,0004,000,000,0005,000,000,0006,000,000,0007,000,000,0008,000,000,0009,000,000,000

10,000,000,000 Gaming (0.03%, 0.06%)File Sharing (18%, 7%)Web/Data (23%, 12%)IP VOD (4%, 10%)Internet Video (55%, 71%)

21% CAGR 2013–2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share


Key Trends





Devices Matter: Monthly Traffic per Device (2013)

=Tablet

Ultra High Definition TV

Laptop/PC

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

4.0 GB

= 22.9 GB*

22.7 GB

= 8.0 GB

* Includes IP VoD TrafficSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

=

=Smartphone 1.0 GB

=M2M Module 78 MB


Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

980,843 8,436,006 27,533,993

62,549,889

119,443,045

202,420,307

SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

Connected 4K TV Sets

(M)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


Global Connected Devices Growth by TypeBy 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

11% CAGR

Billions of Devices

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

M2M (18.6%,35.2%)

Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)

Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)

TV (10.0%,12.8%)

PCs (12.2%,7.0%)

Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)

Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)


Global IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic

Exabytes per

Month

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)

Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%)

M2M (0.4%,2.8%)

Tablets (2.2%,14.0%)

Smartphones (3.5%,16.3%)

TV (26.5%,23.6%)

PCs (67.2%,42.8%)

21% CAGR

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


Internet of EverythingSmart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018Average Traffic Grows 13.3X, From 3PB to 41PB

Smart Cars

Traffic (PB/Mont

h)

Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Smart Cars (M)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

35,351 56,592

90,031

136,003

192,293

255,689

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2,620 4,593

8,280

14,696

25,045

40,716


Global Residential ServicesBy 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Online Music

Social Network-

ing

Online Video

Online Gam-ing

VoIP

Digital TV

Video on Demand

Time Delayed TV

2018 % Adoption

Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion.

CAGR 2013–2018


Global Business ServicesBy 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption

CAGR 2013–2018

Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million.

-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

SMS

Mobile Email

Room Based Video Con-ferencing

IP Telephony

Business LBS

Audio Conferencing

Desktop Video Con-ferencing

Web Con-ferencing w/o Video

2018 % Adoption


Busy Hour versus Average HourBusy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018

Ratio of Busy Hour

to Average

Hour Traffic

Glo

ba

l

AP

AC

LA

TA

M

NA

WE

CE

E

ME

A

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.72.5 2.5

3.02.7

2.32.6

3.3 3.2 3.23.5 3.4

2.93.2



Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficDriven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average HourThe Internet is the Next Primetime Medium for Video

Traffic (Gbps)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Average Hour

Busy Hour


28% CAGR

23% CAGR


Key Trends





Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyFixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per

Month

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000Mobile Data (61% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

39%

36%

12%

21% CAGR 2013–2018

13%


Key Takeaways

• Wide range of devices, applications, requirements

• Internet of Everything is real

• Wireless dominates access and is essential


Policy Implications• Networks need to be managed

• Not all bits created equal • Wide range of device requirements• Average is not good enough

• Need more spectrum – licensed and unlicensed• Wi-Fi essential and growing• Billions of M2M devices with diverse spectrum

requirements


Cisco VNI Web Sites

• Press Releases

• White Papers / FAQs

• Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa

Thank you.

VNI Global (Andres Maz), Power Point

Technology

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