Vn Macro Eng

VietNam Report

2008 Oct.

Shusaku Hayakawa

Some right Reserved by Community-Labs Co.,Ltd.

TOC

What is Vietnam Vietnam Historical Backdrop Vietnam Population Vietnam Income Vietnam Price

Quantitative Analysis

Comparison extensional environment of Japan and Vietnam

Qualitative Analysis


-7.50

-3.75

0

3.75

7.50

11.25

15.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

What is Vietnam？

Description in one sentences ”Vietnam is Little China”（From the view of socialist and economic growth）

GDP of Vietnam ranks at the 2nd position among Asian

countries however it’s still not attractive elements to investors.

＜Comparison of GDP growth rates of Asia principal countries＞＞

Source：Japanese Extensional Trade Organization(JETRO)

Moreover, in 2007 VietNam became WTO’s member. In 2005, Ho Chi Minh stock market has been recognized 4 times sudden rise compared to another years. From now on, as the global role has been applied in investment,trade and

circulation of money, the additional continued growth can be expected.

0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000

VietnamChinaIndiaSingaporeKoreaThailandJapan

＜Comparison of Asia principal countries‘s GDP in 2007＞

At the present time , GDP of Vietnam is quite low comprised to potential countries but GDP is increasing

in very speedy.


Vietnam Population

Vietnamese population has seen to be steadily increased with a high rate in comparison with global standard.（1.32% , World’s 98th rank）Moreover, working people amounts 70% of the population and most of them are young. This will be the base to develop the economy in the future.

＜Comparison of population growth rate in Asia＞

6%

69%

26%

Teenage

Working People

Elderly people

-1.25

0

1.25

2.50

3.75

5.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Vietnam China India SingaporeKorea Thailand Japan

＜Vietnam population structure＞

About 8.5 millions（2007 year）

Source: Foreign ministry

Source：Wikipedia etc.

Source：Viet Kabu.com

（%）


Vietnam is filled with lively young people.Especially in urban areas tend to this.

Vietnam historical backdrop

It is no doubt that vietnamese market can be seen as Japanese one in 1960 to 1970.

Like us after war (30 years ago), Vietnam struggled to improve many faces of life as increase GDP, reorganize population, religion, and manufacturing.

Japan’s manufacturing in 30 years ago

30 years ago, Japan was the period that be of value in tertiary industry（retail, services）

0

22.5

45.0

67.5

90.0

Vietnam Singapore Japan

＜GDP Composition rate in 2007＞

Vietnam is the slot that can be expected to grow in the tertiary industry from now on.

30 Years ago

Now

Source: Foreign Ministry data

Source : Cabinet Office

（Manufacture）（Agriculture）（Retail,service）

Breaking into the period that be of value in quaternary industry(IT or lifestyle industry）


Vietnamese Income

Vietnamese people’s income is quite low compared to Japan. (About 1/10 )However,this rate has been increasing in recent years with in incredible speed. The economy has to face many difficulties nowadays, there are still differences in earnings, along with economic development, and their earnings tend to develop.

＜Transition of average monthly income of Vietnamese people＞

0

50

100

150

200

1995 2000 2005 2007

Hanoi Hochi minh

（$）

In 10 years, average income has increased 5 times ! Commonly, people is coming richer in unimaginable speed.

・Executive

・White collar

・Blue collar

10000～20000$／month

300～500$／month

100$～300$／month※ In the commission system of Taxi ,

company take 60%, driver takes 40%（Driver also take the fuel charge）

※ Executive’s distribution rate in developing country is quite low compared to developed country.

※ Average of the university graduate.（It’s Valuable ! ）

＜Example of allowance in Vietnam＞

Source：B&C database


Vietnam Price

Price in VietNam is very low compared to Japan however it is this price is equal to neighboring countries. There is a splicing to each object person in Retail Due to the extremely high rate of increasing inflation in recent year, average customer spend has raised, unit price trends to be shrink.

＜Comparison of inflation rate＞

About 30$ /person ※ Potful cooking restaurant in HaNoi

・Restaurant for citizens

※ Home cooking, shop on the sidewalk.

・Cafe for tourist

About 10$/person ※ Include “pho” and beer-5.0

-2.5

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Vietnam China Singapore Japan

Vietnam’s inflation rate is high compared to neighboring countries. Economic growth and income growth are the reason for Vietnamese personal disposable income keeps rising.

＜Unit price of each target＞

Source：Data from internet

（%）


About 2.5$/person

・High grade restaurant

Comparison Extensional Environment of Japan and Vietnam

Industry competitive

Newcomer

Danger of alternative

Bargaining ability of buyer

Ascendancy of seller

Extremely difficult Just started

Too Much Foreign capital has just begun

Eating-in, convenience store Eating-out is a lot

Very powerful Weak as can not be compared

Low benefit constitutionin shrink market.

High benefit constitution in undeveloped market

New enterprise which becomes Market keeper is not Japan nor China, is Vietnam.

With the population same to Japan, if Vietnam market can be reclaimed

quickly, oversea venture can be hoped to become a huge profit center.

（M.E.Porter 5 force Analysis）


Community Labs Vietnam


Jan. 2009

Shusaku Hayakawa

Vn Macro Eng

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