VMT Growth Rates

Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS)

versus Gasoline Sales

Transportation Work GroupPhase III - Meeting 3February 25, 2004

410-569-0599www.meszler.com

Meszler Engineering Services Page 2 February 25, 2004

Transportation Plan 2020 - HPMS

HPMS VMT 1970 - 2000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

YEAR

MIL

LIO

NS

OF

MIL

ES

“The most recent 10 years of HPMS data was evaluated and an average yearly growth rate was calculated. This average yearly growth rate was 2.0828 percent.” (Appendix A)

Meszler Engineering Services Page 3 February 25, 2004

Regression Results (RI Data)

Rhode Island VMT Trends (RI Data)

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ann

ual V

MT

(m

illio

ns)

RI Planning HPMS Data

FHWA HPMS Data

1970-2000 Linear Trend (Rate = 1.9% per year)

1991-2000 Linear Trend (Rate = 1.4% per year)

1970-2000 Exponential Trend (Rate = 1.5% per year)

1991-2000 Exponential Trend (Rate = 1.3% per year)

Linear trends are tied to a base year (e.g., a 1970-2000 linear trend means that the annual VMT change is X percent of 1970 VMT, not X percent of the preceding year VMT).

Meszler Engineering Services Page 4 February 25, 2004

Regression Results (FHwA Data)

Rhode Island VMT Trends (FHwA Data)

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ann

ual V

MT

(m

illio

ns)

RI Planning HPMS Data

FHWA HPMS Data

1970-2002 Linear Trend (Rate = 2.0% per year)

1991-2002 Linear Trend (Rate = 1.6% per year)

1970-2002 Exponential Trend (Rate = 1.5% per year)

1991-2002 Exponential Trend (Rate = 1.5% per year)

Linear trends are tied to a base year (e.g., a 1970-2000 linear trend means that the annual VMT change is X percent of 1970 VMT, not X percent of the preceding year VMT).

Meszler Engineering Services Page 5 February 25, 2004

10 Year Period HPMS Growth Rates

HPMS VMT Growth Rates

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%19

70-1

979

1971

-198

0

1972

-198

1

1973

-198

2

1974

-198

3

1975

-198

4

1976

-198

5

1977

-198

6

1978

-198

7

1979

-198

8

1980

-198

9

1981

-199

0

1982

-199

1

1983

-199

2

1984

-199

3

1985

-199

4

1986

-199

5

1987

-199

6

1988

-199

7

1989

-199

8

1990

-199

9

1991

-200

0

Data Period

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Linear Growth Rates - 10 Data Years

Exponential Growth Rates - 10 Data Years

Annual rates dropped below 2 percent in the late 1990’s, bottoming out in the 10 year period ending 1998.

Meszler Engineering Services Page 6 February 25, 2004

11 Year Period HPMS Growth Rates

Annual rates dropped below 2 percent in the late 1990’s, still exhibiting a small decline through the 11year period ending 2000.

HPMS VMT Growth Rates

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%19

70-1

980

1971

-198

1

1972

-198

2

1973

-198

3

1974

-198

4

1975

-198

5

1976

-198

6

1977

-198

7

1978

-198

8

1979

-198

9

1980

-199

0

1981

-199

1

1982

-199

2

1983

-199

3

1984

-199

4

1985

-199

5

1986

-199

6

1987

-199

7

1988

-199

8

1989

-199

9

1990

-200

0

Data Period

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Linear Growth Rates - 11 Data Years

Exponential Growth Rates - 11 Data Years

Meszler Engineering Services Page 7 February 25, 2004

Gasoline Sales Trends

Rhode Island Taxable Gasoline Sales

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

550,000,000

600,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Calendar Year (not Fiscal Year)

Ann

ual S

ales

(G

allo

ns)

Reported Tax Data1994-2002 Trend (Rate = 1.2%/1.3%)1998-2002 Trend (Rate = 0.2%/0.2%)1994-1999 Trend (Rate = 1.9%/2.0%)

EIA Prime Supplier DataFHWA Highway Statistics Data

Solid trend lines assume linear growth.Dotted trend lines assume exponential growth.

Meszler Engineering Services Page 8 February 25, 2004

Gasoline Sales Trends vs. HPMS

Rhode Island Taxable Gasoline Sales vs. VMT

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

550,000,000

600,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Calendar Year (not Fiscal Year)

Ann

ual G

asol

ine

Sal

es (

Gal

lons

)

6,600

7,100

7,600

8,100

8,600

9,100

9,600

10,100

10,600

11,100

11,600

Ann

ual V

MT

(M

illio

n M

iles)

Reported Gasoline Sales - Tax Data

1994-2002 Gasoline Sales Trend (Rate = 1.2%/1.3%)

FHWA Highway Statistics Gas Sales Data

HPMS VMT Data

1991-2002 VMT Trend (Rate = 1.6%/1.5%)

Solid trend lines assume linear growth.Dotted trend lines assume exponential growth.

Meszler Engineering Services Page 9 February 25, 2004

Summary

DataLinear Trend(2004 Base)

ExponentialTrend

Gasoline Sales 1994-2002 1.2 percent 1.3 percent

RI HPMS 1970-2000 1.2 percent 1.5 percent

RI HPMS 1991-2000 1.2 percent 1.2 percent

FHwA HPMS 1970-2002 1.2 percent 1.5 percent

FHwA HPMS 1991-2002 1.3 percent 1.5 percent

Meszler Engineering Services Page 10 February 25, 2004

Conclusions

• Trends are in pretty reasonable agreement given the cursory level of analysis.

– Factors such as changing fuel efficiency, offroad equipment gasoline sales, through-travel/refueling effects, etc. are likely to explain differences.

• Initial concern over large discrepancy between gasoline sales and HPMS trends appears to be unfounded, but likelihood of negligible future VMT growth also doubtful.