Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin Peter Mahaffy.

Visualizing the Science of Climate Change

Brian Martin Peter Mahaffy

What do all of these images have in

common?

Acknowledments

Jasper, Alberta

UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014)

• Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on.

• To do this we must learn constantly.• Challenge individuals, institutions

and societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone.

Global Climate Change

• The atmosphere of our planet• What is climate & is it changing?• Causes of change• Short and long term effects• How do humans respond to

uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere

• Exosphere• Thermosphere• Mesosphere• Stratosphere• Troposphere

Tropospherew clouds @ top

Stratosphere

Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies

Temperature Profile of Earth’s Atmosphere

• Temperature of atmosphere controlled by 4 factors– Absorption of energy from the sun.– Heat production in interior of the earth.– Loss of energy by emission from the earth as

a blackbody radiator. – Chemistry and photochemistry also play a

role – especially: •Infrared absorption by gases in

troposphere•Oxygen / ozone photochemistry in

stratosphere

What is ‘Climate’?

•Climate is ‘average weather’- and its variability- for a particular region- over a period of time

•Includes many different elements

(Environment Canada – Edmonton)

What is ‘climate change’?• Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period

• It is caused by:

Natural factors- Solar variability

- Volcanic dust levels- Internal variability - Geological change

- Greenhouse gases - Aerosols - Ozone depletion

- Land use change

Human factors

(Environment Canada – Edmonton)

Climate Change – A New Idea?

• 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet

• 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change

• 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere

• 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO2 concentration monitoring program

Environment Canada

Is Climate Changing?

Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature

“Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally

pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear

war.”

World Conference on World Conference on The Changing Atmosphere: The Changing Atmosphere:

Toronto, June 1988Toronto, June 1988

Chemistry in Context

WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change

How is Heat Trapped?Chemistry In Context

Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation ?


6000 K 255 K

Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)

Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules

C:\kings\public_html\talks\active_learning\Crystal\projects\CFC\cfc.swf

Key Players - A Closer Look

• Carbon Dioxide• Methane• Nitrous Oxide• CFCs and HCFCs• Water !• Aerosols • Solar activity

Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?

C:\kings\public_html\talks\Science Council 2006\co2v3-n2v2.swf

Source: OSTP

Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends

[CO2] and Temperature – Correlation?

C:\kings\public_html\talks\Science Council 2006\co2-temp.swf

Per capita CO2 emissions – Global

Wikimedia Commons

Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg

Methane by Sector - Canada

Residence time -12 yearsGlobal Warming Potential - 23

Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?

Geomar Research Centre

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) by Sector - Canada

Residence time - 120 years !Global Warming Potential – 296 !

Harvey was a dentist,But now his career is through,

'Cause what he thought was N2OWas really NO2

CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs

“Super” Greenhouse Gases

100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000Relative to carbon dioxide

Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases?

Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001

Aerosols

The Bottom Line?

Cautious

Increasing Confidence

The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on

climate change science

1990

1992

1995

1997

2001

First ReportFirst Report

Second ReportSecond Report

Third ReportThird Report

The IPCC progression in confidence

FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“

SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“

TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001

“The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001

The IPCC Third Assessment Report

• The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed publication, the result of the work of hundreds of leading climate scientists and modellers.

• A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was also released, which – Developed 4 major scenario families of

possible future emissions of the major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…)

• Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/ GISS Global Climate Model

Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios

Some glimpses at Global Climate Change …

• Historical data• Models run at TKUC

– Temperature– Snow and Ice cover– Precipitation

• What are Greenhouse gases and how do they work?– CFC-s– CO2

• Can YOU do anything about this?

What is Science Alberta Foundation?

• Not-for-profit raising science and math awareness

• Celebrating 15 years in Alberta

• Foster enthusiasm and interest

• Nurture the development of leaders and workers

Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.

Science-In-A-Crate


• Curriculum specific programs developed for educators by educators with students, and content experts

• Challenging, hands-on activities that help make math relevant in our everyday lives

• Activities that encourage students to explore scientific understandings from different perspectives incorporating a variety of learning styles

Book A Crate


• On-line booking

• $25 for 3 week rental

• All materials

• Shipped to your door

• Picked up at your door

www.sciencealberta.org

New Science 10 CrateEnergy Flow in Global Systems


Activity Specifics: 1. Visualization tool to explore past and future

climate change (laptop computer included)

2. Exploration of greenhouse gases and mechanism of effects

3. Interactive, physical model to explore effects of seasons on earth


Activity Specifics (con’t)

4. Exploration of past climate and weather,

investigate ice cores and tree cores

5. Board game to explore carbon cycle, balance between sinks and sources

6. Differences between effects of UV depletion and increases in greenhouse gases

7. Explore and manipulate effects of climate change on biomes and distribution of organisms

“View tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will

not belong to anyone…”

UN Decade for Education for Sustainable

Development

Chemistry in Context Kilimanjaro

1912

2001 - 82 % of ice field goneSnow cover gone by2015?

What Industry is Most Concerned About Climate Change?

Connections? - Ozone depletion & Climate Change

Ozone Depletion• Stratosphere• UV region of

spectrum• Cl atom chemistry• Ozone hole a

separate phenomenon

Climate Change• Troposphere• IR region of

spectrum• Various

“greenhouse gases”

Connections?

Ozone Depletion / Climate Change• Some potent ozone depletors (CFCs,

HCFCs, HFCs) are also potent greenhouse gases because they absorb in the “window” and are long lived.

• Ironically, an increase in greenhouse gases is predicted to cause a cooling of the stratosphere, slowing down the O3 depleting reactions...

Range of IPCC Model Predictions

“If you were unkind enough to put a frog into boiling water, he would jump out if able to do so. If you were to put him into cold water and then gradually heat up the water, you would end up with frog soup.” Sir Crispin Tickell, Ambassador to the UN from

Great Britain

FROG SOUP?

100th Anniversary of Nobel Prize100 Nobel Laureates Speak

Out...• “The most profound danger to world peace in

the coming years will stem not from the irrational acts of states or individuals but from the legitimate demands of the worlds dispossessed. Of these poor and disenfranchised, the majority live a marginal existence in equatorial climates. Global warming, not of their making but originating with the wealthy few, will affect their fragile economies most. Their situation will be desperate and manifestly unjust.

• It cannot be expected, therefore, that in all cases they will be content to await the beneficence of the rich. If then we permit the devastating power of modern weaponry to spread through this combustible human landscape, we invite a conflagration that can engulf both rich and poor. The only hope for the future lies in cooperative international action, legitimized by democracy.

• It is time to turn our backs on the unilateral search for security, in which we seek to shelter behind walls. Instead, we must persist in the quest for united action to counter both global warming and a weaponized world.”

Precautionary Principle?

“Maybe we should take the example of the Iroquois Nation, who require its tribal councils to formally consider the impact of their decisions to the seventh generation into the future, or about 150 years. This is about the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” Shayne Janzen, King’s student - Brief to Climate Change Central

Effect of Doubling CO2

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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

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Doubling CO2in 1960 Control

Sunspot Numbers – NASA MSFC

The IPCC process for providing science advice

• Selection of lead authors – based on internationally recognized expertise

• Assessment based on published literature– invited contributions from other experts

• Contents peer reviewed twice– Second draft also reviewed by governments

• Final contents are responsibility of lead authors– accepted (not approved) by IPCC

• SPM developed and approved collaboratively by IPCC and lead authors• 2001 WGI report involved 1078 experts

Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin Peter Mahaffy.

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