Domestic Leisure Tourism

Trends: The Next Decade

Paul Flatters, Chief Executive,

Trajectory Partnership

Project objectives

• Overall, identify the trends, influences and behaviours that are

likely to impact domestic leisure tourism in the next decade

• Explore the extent to which some changes seen in recent

years are a short-term response to the economic environment

rather than a more permanent shift

• What are the implications of the emerging trends for different

industry sectors, destination and business types

• Identify how businesses can respond to / take advantage of

these emerging trends to be more successful in future?

• Enable VE to advise businesses about trends and market developments that will affect their future performance

The Project process

The Trend Categories

Demographics Economics Technology

Consumer Tourism

The Demographic Trends

Ageing society Increasing numbers of older people

Vertical family Families with more, smaller generations

Baby boom Spike in the birth rate

Untraditional families Divorces, step-families, gay parents

Changing ethnic profile Larger proportion of BME in the UK

Squeezed middle generation Decreasing numbers of 35-49 year olds

Multispeed demography Sharply varying regional trends

The ‘Squeezed Middle’ Generation

Source: ONS Population

prospects

65-79s +11.2%

80+ +19.2%

Under 18s +10%

18-34s +1.2%

35-49s -3.4%

50-64s +10.5%

More younger people

More older people

Fewer ‘squeezed middle’

UK population change 2013-2020

The Economic Trends

Economic stagnation Modest growth over next 5 years

Complicated downturn Income, financial habits and life events

Consumer confidence Expectations and willingness to buy

Funding climate Tough climate in private and public sector

Discretionary thrift Saving when they don’t need to

Mercurial consumption Less loyalty to brands

Value hunters Value for money absolutely central

Self preservation society Looking out for yourself – less altruism

The sheer duration of the

UK downturn is unprecedented….

-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak

80s recession 90s recession

Great Depression Current downturn

OBR Forecasts

……and so the long-term impact on consumer attitudes and behaviours is as yet unknown

Source: ONS

Q3 2015!

Discretionary Thrift

69%66%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18-34 35-54 55+

‘I like to find bargains, even when I don’t need to save the money’

• Consumers are looking to cut back across all areas of spending – even when they don’t strictly need to

• Consumers are employing a range of money saving strategies – from vouchers to comparing prices

“This is habit forming, rather than just a blip. For younger people, a significant proportion of their life has been spent in this climate -

it’s seen as weird to pay over the odds”

Gavin Flynn, IHG

Source: Trajectory Global Foresight

The Consumer Trends

Play society Increasing importance of leisure

Demand for control High levels of control lead to greater satisfaction

Demand for simplicity Access to information creates complexity

Time poverty & work-life balance Busier lives creates perception of time pressure

Individualocracy Desire for curated, bespoke activities

Cultural capital Ostentatious spending fallen out of favour

Decline of deference New sources of information

CSR: from green to clean Changing ethical priorities

The Play Society

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

205000

210000

215000

220000

225000

230000

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1 Rec

reat

ion

an

d c

ult

ure

sp

en

din

g (£

mill

lion

)

Ho

use

ho

ld f

inal

co

nsu

mp

tio

n e

xpen

dit

ure

(£

mill

ion

)

Household final consumption expenditure

Spending on recreation and culture

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

Spending on recreation and culture as a % of all spending

Source: ONS, Consumer

Spending 2012

The Tourism Trends

VFR leisure Turning family visits into leisure breaks

Active tourism Desire to be active and healthy

Skills tourismDriven by cultural capital and desire to acquire

new skills

Health tourism Driven by increased pressures at work and home

Rural tourism Threatened by increasing urbanisation

Seaside tourism Perceived as in decline

Urban tourism Significant growth area

And finally…..the future of the Staycation

• Economic conditions that

boosted the staycation will

largely remain in place into

the medium term

• Industry experts split on

longer term prospects:– Some predict a prompt return

to sunnier climates

– Others feel we have

‘discovered’ England

• We believe that England will

retain a place in wider

holiday port – value for time

a key part of staycation’s

appeal

Go to: www.visitenglandtrends.com

Trajectory Ltd

Enterprise House

1-2 Hatfields

London SE1 9PG

T 020 3567 5801

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Paul Flatters

Chief Executivepaul@trajectorypartnership.comwww.trajectorypartnership.com