Visions of the Future 1 Energy: The Transition from Depletable to Renewable Resources 156 156 157...

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Preface 1 Visions of the Future Introduetion The Self-Extinetion Premise Some Historie Examples Future Environmental Challenges Climate Change Water Aeeessibility Meeting the Challenges How Will Soeieties Respond? The Role of Eeonomies DEBATE 1.1 Ecological Economics Versus Environmental Economjcs The Use of Models The Road Ahead The Issues DEBATE1.2 What Does the Future Hold? An Overview of the Book Summary 12 ~ DiscussionQuestions 12 111 Further Reading 13 L Valuing the Environment: Concepts Introduetion The Human Environment Relationship The Environment as an Asset The Eeonomie Approaeh EXAMPlE 2.1EconomicImpacts01ReducingHazardousPollutant Emissions from Iron and SteelFoundries Normative Criteria for Deeision-Making Evaluating Predefined Options DEBATE1.1 Should Humans Place an Economic Value on the Environment? 14 14 14 14 16 17 18 18 19 XXI 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10

Transcript of Visions of the Future 1 Energy: The Transition from Depletable to Renewable Resources 156 156 157...

Page 1: Visions of the Future 1 Energy: The Transition from Depletable to Renewable Resources 156 156 157 158 Introduction EXAMPLE 8.1 Hubbert's Peak Natural Gas: Price Controls jl Gil: The

Preface

1 Visions of the FutureIntroduetion

The Self-Extinetion Premise

Some Historie Examples

Future Environmental ChallengesClimate ChangeWater Aeeessibility

Meeting the Challenges

How Will Soeieties Respond?The Role of Eeonomies

DEBATE1.1 Ecological Economics VersusEnvironmental EconomjcsThe Use of Models

The Road AheadThe IssuesDEBATE1.2 What Does the Future Hold?

An Overview of the Book

Summary 12 ~ DiscussionQuestions 12 111Further Reading 13

L Valuing the Environment: ConceptsIntroduetion

The Human Environment RelationshipThe Environment as an AssetThe Eeonomie ApproaehEXAMPlE2.1EconomicImpacts01ReducingHazardousPollutant

Emissionsfrom Iron and SteelFoundries

Normative Criteria for Deeision-MakingEvaluating Predefined OptionsDEBATE1.1 Should Humans Place an Economic Value on the Environment?

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. Contents VII

EXAMPLE2.2 Valuing EcologicalS~rvicesfrom Preserved Tropical Forests 22Comparing Benefits and Costs Across Time 24

Finding the Optimal Outcome 25Static Efficiency 26Dynamic Efficiency 28

Applying the Concepts 28Pollution Control 28EXAMPLE2.3DoesReducingPollutionMakeEconomicSense? 29PreservationVersusDevelopment 30EXAMPLE2.4 ChoosingBetweenPreservaríanand Developmentin Australia 31

Summary 30 DiscussionQuestion 31 Problem 31 &>Funher Reading 32Appendix: The Simple Mathematics of Dynamic Efficiency 33

J Valuing the Environ!llent: MethodsIntroduction

Why Value the Environment?

Valuing BenefitsTypes ofValuesEXAMPLE3.1Valuingthe Nonhern Spotted OwlClassifying Valuation MethodsDEBATE3.1 Willingness to Pay Versus Willingness to Accept:

Why So Different?

EXAMPLE3.2Leave No Behavioral Trace: Using the Contingent ValuationMethod to Measure Passive Use Values

EXAMPLE3.3 Valuing Damage from Groundwater Contamination UsingAveningExpenditures ,

Using Geographic Information Systems for Economic ValuationEXAMPLE3.4Using GIS to Inform HedonicPropeny Values:

Visualizing the DataDEBATE3.21.1Valuing Human Life Immoral?Issues in Benefit Estimation

Approaches to Cost EstimationThe Treatinent of Risk

Choosing the Discount Rate

EXAMPLE3.5 The HistoricalImponance 01the Discount RateA Critical Appraisal

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

EXAMPLE3.6NOz Controlin Chicago:An Example01Cost-EjfectivenessAnalysis

Impact Analysis

Summary 61 <11Discussion Questions 62 <11Problems63 <11Further Reading 63

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~ Property Rights, Extemalities, and EnvironmentalProblems

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InHIntroduction

Property RightsProperty Rights and Efficient Market AllocationsEfficient Property Right StructuresEXAMPLE4.1 Pollution in Transition Economies

Producer's Surplus, Scarcity Rent, and Long-Run CompetitiveEquilibrium

Externalities as a Source of Market Failure

The Concept IntroducedTypes of ExternalitiesEXAMPLE4.2 Shrimp Farming Externalities in Thailand

Improperly Designed Property Rights SystemsOther Property Rights Regimes

Public Goods

EXAMPLE4.3 Public GoodsPrivately Provided: The Nature Conservancy

Imperfect Market StructuresDEBATE4.1 How Should GPEC Price Its Gil?

Divergence of Social and Prívate Discount RatesGovernment Failure

The Pursuit of EfficiencyPrívate Resolution Through NegotiationThe Courts: Property Rules and Liability RulesLegislative and Executive Regulation

An Efficient Role for Government

Summary 88 @¡DiscussionQuestions 89 @¡Problems 89

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Further Reading 90

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~ Dynamic Efficiency and Sustainable Development 92Introduction 92

A Two-Period Model 93

Defining Intertemporal Fairness 97Are Efficient Allocations Fair? 98

Applying the Sustainability Criterion 99EXAMPLE5.1TheAlaskaPermanentFund 100EXAMPLE5.2Nauru: Weak Sustainabilityin the Extreme 102

Implications for Environmental Policy 102

Summary 103 @¡DiscussionQuestions 104 Problems 105 @¡Fu17herReading 105Appendix: The Matheinatics of the Two-Period Model 107

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Contents

o The Population Problem 108Introduction 108

Historical Perspective 109World Population Growth 109Population Growth in the United States 109

Effects of Population Growth on Economic Development 113The Population/Environment Connection 118

Effects of Econe>micDevelopment on Population Growth 119DEBATE6.1 Does Population Growth Inevitably Degrade the Environment? 120

The Economic Approach to Population Control 123EXAMPLE6.1 Achieving Fertility Declines in Low-Income Countries:

The Caseof Kerala 128Urbanization 129

EXAMPLE6.2Income-Generating Activities as Fertility Control: Bangladesh 130Using GIS to Map Population Data 131

Summary 1314:1DiscussionQuestions 132 4:1Problems 132 4:1Further Reading 133

1 The Allocation oí Depletable and RenewableResources: An Overview 134Introduction 134

A Resource Taxonomy 135Efficient Intertemporal Allocations 139

The Two-Period Model Revisited 139The N-Period Constant-Cost Case 139Transition to a Renewable Substitute 141Increasing Marginal Extraction Cost 143Exploration and Technological Progress 145EXAMPLE7.1TechnologicalProgressin the Iron OreIndustry 146

Market Allocations 147Appropriate Property Right Structures 147Environmental Costs 148

Summary 1494:1DiscussionQuestion 150'11Problems 150'11Further Reading 151Appendix: Extensions of the Basic Depletable Resource Model 152

~ Energy: The Transition from Depletableto Renewable Resources 156

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IntroductionEXAMPLE8.1 Hubbert's Peak

Natural Gas: Price Controls

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Gil: The Cartel Problem

Price Elasticity of DemandIncome Elasticity of DemandNon-OPEC SuppliersCompatibility of Member Interests

Fossil Fuels: National Security and Climate ConsiderationsThe Climate Dimension

The National Security DimensionDEBATE8.1 H(fllJShould the United States Deal with the Vulnerability

oIIts Imported Dil?

EXAMPLE8.2 Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Other Depletable Sources: Unconventional Gil, Coal, and NuclearUnconventional Gil SourcesCoalUranium

ElectricityEXAMPLE8.3 Electricity Deregulation in California: What Happened?EXAMPLE8.4 TradableEnergy Certificates:The TexasExperience

Energy EfficiencyTransitioning to Renewables

Hydroelectric Power .

WindPhotovoltaics

Active and Passive Solar EnergyDEBATE8.2 Dueling Externalities: Should the US. Promote Wind Power?Ocean Tidal PowerBiomass Fuels

Geothermal EnergyHydrogen

Summary 189. DiscussionQuestions 190. Problems

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~ Recyclable Resources: Minerals, Paper, Bottles,and E-WasteIntroduction

An Efficient Allocation of Recyclable ResourcesExtraction and Disposal CostRecycling: A Closer LookRecycling and Ore DepletionEXAMPLE9.1 Lead Recycling

Factors Mitigating Resource ScarcityExploration and DiscoveryTechnological Progress

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SubstitutionEXAMPLE9.2 The Bet

Market ImperfectionsDisposal Cost and EfficiencyThe Disposal DecisionDisposal Costs and the Scrap MarketSubsidies on Raw MaterialsCorrective Public Policies

EXAMPLE9.3 Pricing Trash in Marietta, GeorgiaDEBATE9.1 "Bottle Bills." Economic 1ncentives at Work?

EXAMPLE9.4 1mplementing the "Take-Back" PrincipIeE-Waste

Pollution DamageSummary .211111Discussion Questions 212 111Problems 213

Contents

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Further Reading 213

1 ~ Replenishable but Depletable Resources: WaterIntroduction

The Potential for Water ScarcityThe Efficient Allocation of Scarce Water

Surface WaterGroundwater

The Current Allocation SystemRiparian and Prior Appropriation DoctrinesSources of InefficiencyDEBATE10.1What Is the Value ofWater?

Potential Remedies

EXAMPLE10.1 UsingEconomicPrincipIesto ConserveWater in CaliforniaEXAMPLE10.2Water Transfers in Colorado: What Makes a Market

for Water Work?EXAMPLE10.3 Protecting 1nstream Uses Through Acquiring Water Rights

EXAMPlE 10.4Water Pricing in CanadaDEBATE10.2Should Water Systems Be Privatized?

GIS and Water Resources

Summary 240111DiscussionQuestions 241 Problems 241

11 LandIntroductionThe Economics of Land Allocation

Land UseLand Use Conversion

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Sources ofInefficient Use and Conversion 246

Sprawl and Leapfrogging 246EXAMPLE11.1 UsingGIS toAnalyzeSprawl 248Incompatible Land Uses 249Undervaluing Environmental Amenities 249The Influence ofTaxes on Land Use Conversion 250DEBATE11.1 Should Landowners Be Compensated for "Regulatory Takings"? 251Market Power 252Special Problems in Developing Countries 253DEBATE11.2What Is a "PublicPurpose"? 254

Innovative Market-Based Policy Remedies 255Establishing Property Rights 256Transferable Development Rights 256EXAMPLE11.2ControllingLand Developmentwith TDRS 257Wetlands Banking 257Conservation Banking 258Safe Harbor Agreements 258EXAMPLE11.3 Conservation Banking: The Gopher Tortoise

Conservation Bank

Grazing RightsConservation EasementsLand Trusts

EXAMPLE11.4 Usinga ConservationLand Trust to ProtectFarmlandDEBATE11.3 Does Ecotourism Provide a Pathway to Sustainability?Development Impact FeesProperty Tax AdjustmentsEXAMPLE11.5 Tax Strategies to Reduce Inefficient Land Conversion:

Maine's Open Space Program

Summary 264 <ij¡Discussion Questions 26~ <ij¡Further Reading 266

1 L Reproducible Private- Property Resources:AgricultureIntroduction

Global Scarcity

Formulating the Global Scarcity Hypothesis

Testing the HypothesisOutlook for the Future

EXAMPLE12.1Growing Corn for Fuel Not Food: The Expansion ofEthanolEXAMPLE12.2 Do Mandatory Labels Correct Externalities?

The Role of Agricultural PoliciesDEBATE12.1When OrganicGoesMainstream: Do YouGet What

You Pay For?

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Summing UpDistribution of F ood Resources

Defllling the Problem

DEBATE12,2Sbould GeneticallyModified OrganismsBeBanned?EXAMPLE12,3Are ConsumersWilling to Paya Premium

for GMO-Free Foods? 286Domestic Production in Less Developed Countries 287The Undervaluation Bias 288Feeding the Poor 289

Feast and Famine Cycles 290

Summary 293 ($DiscussionQuestions294 ($Problems 294 ($Furtber Reading 295

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1j Storable, Renewable Resources: ForestsIntroduction

Characterizing Forest Harvesting DecisionsSpecial Attributes of the Timber ResourceThe Biological DimensionThe Economics of Forest HarvestingExtending the Basic Model

Sources of InefficiencyPerverse Incentives for the LandownerPerverse Incentives for Nations

Poverty and Debt

Sustainable ForestryPublic Policy

Changing IncentivesEXAMPLE13,1Producing SustainableForestry Tbrougb CertificationEXAMPLE13,2ConservationEasementsin Action: Tbe Blackfoot

Community ProjectRoyalty PayrnentsCarbon Sequestration Credits

EXAMPLE13,3 Does Pbarmaceutical Demand Offer Sufficient Protection toBiodiversity? 315

EXAMPLE13.4 Trust Funds for Habitat Preservation 317

Summary 316 ($Discussion Questions 318 Problems 319 i&Furtber Reading 319Appendix: The Harvesting Decision: Forests 320

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1 ~ Common-Pool Resources: Fisheries and OtherCommercially Valuable SpeciesIntroduction

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Efficient Allocations

The Biological DimensionStatic Efficient Sustainable Yield

Dynamic Efficient Sustainable Yield

Appropriability and Market SolutionsEXAMPLE14.1Open-AccessHarvestingoftheMinke Whale

Public Policy Toward FisheriesAquacultureEXAMPLE14.2Harbor Gangs of Maine

Raising the Real Cost of FishingDEBATE14.1Aquaculture:DoesPrivatization CauseMoreProblems

than It Salves?Taxes

Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs)

EXAMPLE14.3The Relative EffectivenessofTransferableQuotasand TraditionalSize and Effort Restrictionsin theAtlanticSea ScallopFishery 344

Subsidies and Buybacks 345Marine Protected Areas and Marine Reserves 345The 200-Mile Limit 347The Economics of Enforcement 347Preventing Poaching 348EXAMPLE14.4LocalApproachesto WildlifeProtection:Zimbabwe 349

Summary 350 itf¡DiscussionQuestions 351 Problems 351 Further Reading 352Appendix: The Harvesting Decision: Fisheries 353

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1 ~ Economics of Pollution Control: An OverviewIntroduction

A Pollutant Taxonomy

Defining the Efficient Allocation of PollutionStock PollutantsFund Pollutants

Market Allocation of Pollution

Efficient Policy ResponsesEXAMPLE15.1EnvironmentalTaxationin China

Cost-Effective Policies for Uniformly Mixed Fund PollutantsDefining a Cost-Effective AllocationCost-Effective Pollution Control Policies

Cost-Effective Policies for Nonuniformly Mix;ed Surface PollutantsEXAMPLE15.2EmissionsTradinginAction:TheNOx BudgetProgramDEBATE15.1ShouldDevelopingCountriesRelyonMarket-Based

Instruments to Control Pollution?

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The Single-Receptor CaseThe Many-Receptors Case

Other Policy DimensionsThe Revenue Effect

EXAMPLE 15.3 The Swedish Nitrogen ChargeResponses to Changes in the Regulatory EnvironmentPrice VolatilityInstrument Choice Under UncertaintyProduct Charges: An Indirect Form ofEnvironmental TaxationEXAMPLE15.4 The lrisb. Bag Levy

Summary 383 DiscussionQuestion 386'* Problems 386

Appendix: The Simple Mathematics of Cost-EffectivePollution Control

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1 O Stationary-Source Local Air PollutionIntroductionConventional Pollutants

The Command-and-Control Policy FrameworkDEBATE16.1Should the New Source Review Program Be Changed?The Efficiency of the Command-and-Control ApproachDEBATE16.2 The Particulate and Smog Ambient Standards ControversyCost-Effectiveness of the Command-and-Control ApproachEXAMPLE16.1 Controlling SO2 Emissions by Command-and-Control

in Germany 400Air Quality 400

Innovative Approaches 402The Offset Program 402The Effectiveness ofThis Early Application 403Smog Trading 404Emission Charges 405Hazardous Pollutants 407

EXAMPLE16.2 Technology Diffusion in the Chlorine Manufacturing Sector 410

Summary 409 DiscussionQuestions411 Problems 411 Further Reading 412

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11 Regional and Global Air Pollutants: Acid Rainand Atmospheric ModificationIntroduction

RegionalPollutantsAcidRainEXAMPLE17.1 Adirondack Acidification

EXAMPLE17.2 The Sulfur Allowan~e ProgramEXAMPLE17.3 TYhy and How Do Environmentalists Buy Pollution?

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Global Pollutants 421Ozone Depletion 421EXAMPLE17.4TradablePermitsfor Ozone-DepletingChemicals 424Climate Change 425EXAMPLE17.5TheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem(BUETS) 430DEBATE17.1ls GlobalGreenhouseGas Tradinglmmoral? 432

Summary 435 ~ Discussion Question 437111Problems 437111Further Reading 437

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1 ~ Mobile-Source Air PollutionIntroduction

The Economics of Mobile-Source PollutionImplicit SubsidiesExternalities

ConsequencesPolicy Toward Mobile Sources

HistoryStructure of the U.S. ApproachCAFE StandardsDEBATE18.1 CAFE Standards or Fue! Taxes?Alternative Fue!s and Vehicles

EXAMPLE18.1Project XL- The Quest for Effective, Flexible RegulationEuropean ApproachesEXAMPLE18.2Car-Sharing: Better Use of Automotive Capital?

An Economic and Political Assessment

Technology Forcing and SanctionsDifferentiated RegulationUniformity of ControlThe Deterioration ofNew-Car Emission RatesLead Phaseout ProgramEXAMPLE18.3Getting the Lead Out: the Lead Phaseout Program

Possible ReformsFue! Taxes

Congestion PricingEXAMPLE18.4lnnovative Mobile-Source Pollution Control Strategies:

Singapore 456Prívate Toll Roads 457Parking Cash-Outs 457Feebates 458Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD)Insurance 458Accelerated Retirement Strategies 458EXAMPLE18.5Modijjing Car lnsuranceasan Environmental Strategy 459EXAMPLE18.6CounterproductivePolicyDesign 460

Summary 459111Discussion Questions 461 111Problem 462111Further Reading 462

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1 ~ WaterPollutionIntroduction

Nature ofWater Pollution ProblemsTypes ofWaste-Receiving WaterSources of ContaminationTypes of Pollutants

Traditional Water Pollution Control PolicyEarly LegislationSubsequent LegislationThe Safe Drinking Water ActOcean PollutionCitizen Suits

Efficiencyand Cost-EffectivenessAmbient Standards and the Zero- Discharge GoalNational Effluent Standards

EXAMPLE19.1Effluent Tradingfor Nitrogen in Long lsland SoundMunicipal Waste Treatment SubsidiesPretreatment Standards

Nonpoint Source Pollution

EXAMPLE19.2Cost-EffectivePretreatment StandardsAtmospheric Deposition of PollutionDEBATE19.1Toxics in Fish Tissue: Do Fish Consumption Advisories

Change Behavior?

The European ExperienceDeveloping Country ExperienceGil SpillsEXAMPLE19.3Economic lncentives for Water Pollution Control:

The Caseof Colombia 489Citizen Suits 491An Overall Assessment 491

Summary 493 %iDiscussionQuestions 493 %iProblem 494 %iFurther Reading 494

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L ~ Toxic SubstancesIntroduction

Nature ofToxic Substance PollutionHealth Effects

Policy IssuesMarket Allocations and Toxic Substances

Occupational HazardsEXAMPLE20.1Susceptible Populations in the Hazardous WorkplaceProduct SafetyThird Parties

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Current PolicyCommon LawCriminal Law

Statutory LawThe Toxic Release Inventory ProgramThe 33/50 ProgramEXAMPLE20.2 Do New Polluting Facilities Affect Housing Values

and Incomes?Evidencein New Englimd 511Proposition 65 512International Agreements 512

An Assessment of the Legal Remedies 513The Common Law 513The Statutory Law 517Performance Bonds: An Innovative Proposal 519EXAMPLE20.3PerformanceBondsfar BrominatedFlameRetardants 520

Summary 519 @)Discussion Questions 521 Problem 522 Furtber Reading 522

L 1 Environmental JusticeIntroduction .

The Incidence of Hazardous Waste Siting DecisionsHistoryRecent Research and the Emerging Role of Analysis Using GISThe Economics of Site LocationThe Policy ResponseEXAMPLE21.1 Wbicb Came First- Tbe Toxic Facility or tbe Minority

Neigbborbood?

DEBATE21.1 Does Offering Compensation far Accepting an EnvironmentalRisk Always Increasethe WillingnesstoAccepttbe Risk?

The Incidence of Pollution Control Costs: Individual IndustriesA Competitive IndustryMonopolyDEBATE21.2Jobs Versus tbe Environment: Wbicb Side Is Rigbt?

The Generation of Pollutants

The Incidence on HouseholdsAir PollutionWater PollutionNoise PollutionFloodsSocioeconomic Status and Health

Implications for PolicyEXAMPLE21.2 Distributi~nal Impacts of RECLAIM

Summary 546 DiscussionQuestions 547 Problem

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Contents

L L Development, Poverty, and the EnvironmentIntroductionThe Growth Process

Nature of the ProcessPotential Sources of Reduced Growth

Limits on Technological ProgressThe Natural Resource Curse

EXAMPLE22.1Th.e "Natural Resource Curse" HypothesisEnvironmental PolicyEXAMPLE22.2Jobs Versusthe Environment: What 1.1the Evidence?Energy

Outlook for the Near FuturePopulation ImpactsThe Information Economy

The Growth-Development RelationshipConventional MeasuresAlternative Measures

Growth and Poverty: The Industrialized NationsThe Effects on Income InequalityPoverty in the Less Industrialized NationsAppropriateness of the Traditional ModelBarriers to DevelopmentEXAMPLE22.3Trading Water for Beehives and Barbed Wired in Bolivia

EXAMPLE22.4Debt-for-Nature Revisited: The Nature Conservancy,the TropicalForestConservationAa, and CostaRica 573

Summary 573 DiscussionQuestions 575 Problem 575 Further Reading 575

Lj The Quest for SustainableDevelopmentIntroduction

Sustainability of DevelopmentMarket Allocations

Efficiency and SustainabilityEXAMPLE23.1ResourceDepletionand EconomicSustainability:MalaysiaTrade and the Environment

EXAMPLE23.2Has NAFTA 1mproved the Environment in Mexico?Trade Rules Under GATT and the WTO

DEBATE23.1 Should an 1mporting Country Be AMe to Use TradeRestrictions to 1nfluence Harmful Fishing Practices inan Exporting Nation?

Managing the Transition

.Opportunities for Cooperation

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Restructuring Incentives 593EXAMPLE23.3ReputationalStrategiesfor PollutionControlin Indonesia 600

Summary 599 DiscussionQuestions 601 Problem 602 FU11:herReading 602i!11I ,

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IL~ Visions of the Future Revisited

Addressing the IssuesConceptualizing the ProblemInstitutional ResponsesEXAMPLE24.1 Priva te Incentives for Sustainable Development:

CanAdopting SustainablePracticesBe Profitable?Sustainable DevelopmentEXAMPLE24.2PubliclPrivate Partnerships: The Kalundborg Experience

A Concluding CommentDiscussionQuestions 614

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