Vision in Power sector - NPTI Durgapur in Power Sector- Mr. Shubhendu.pdf · Presentation Out Line....
Transcript of Vision in Power sector - NPTI Durgapur in Power Sector- Mr. Shubhendu.pdf · Presentation Out Line....
Vision in
Power sector
Subhendu Mukherjee
Deputy Manager
Eastern Regional Load Despatch Centre
Power System Operation Corporation Limited
Present Power Scenario
Growth Prospect
Existing Challenges in Generation, Transmission
and Distribution Sector
Strategic Planning and Decision Making for
business growth in Power sector
Presentation Out Line
Present Power
Scenario
Total Installed Capacity : 3,44,718.61 MW (as on 30.09.18)
Total Renewable Installed Capacity : 72623.37 (as on 31.07.18)
Wind Potential ~ 302
GW (at 100 m hub- height)
Source : MNRE
Solar Potential ~ 750 GW(4-7 kWh per sq. m per day)
Wind and Solar Potential
All India
SynchronousGrid
400 kVBackbone
Network
Bulk transfer
throughHVDCsGreenEnergy
CorridorsTransmission asa
CommonCarrier
Robust Settlement
Mechanisms
INDIA POWER SECTOR
765kVBackbone
NetworkPAN India Market
Open Access
Trans National
Exchange of
Power
>Million
Transmission
Tower
INDIAN GRID…LARGEFOOTPRINT
33
ER
Kudankulam
Kayamkulam
Vindhyachal
Coal
Hydro
Lignite
Coastal
Nuclear
Vizag
Simhadri
Kaiga Krishnapatnam
SIKKIM
CHICKEN
NECK
SRI LANKACOLOMBO
NEPAL
PartabpurBHUTAN
BANGLA DESH
Pipavav
LEGEND
Generation
Kolkata
Bhubaneswar
Patna
Lucknow
Delhi
EnnoreSouth Madras
Chennai
Cuddalore
Bangalore
Guwahati
NER
Jammu
Ludhiana
NR
RAPP Jaipur
Gandhinagar
Indore Bhopal
WR
Tarapur
Mumbai
Korba
Talcher/Ib Valley
Raipur
Thiruvananthapuram
Kozhikode Mangalore
Hyderabad
SR
Coal
Load-Centre
Hydro
Wind
and
Solar
Indian PowerSystem
• Peak Demand ~ 165GW
• Energy Met~ 3.5 BUs/day
• Installed Capacity – 345 GW
• Annual Generation - 1168BU
• Transmission Lines - 781330 Ckt.Km
• 11 Nos. HVDC Bi-pole/BtB & 1 MTDC
• > 125 nos. 765 kV,> 1475 nos. 400 kV
• Per Capita Consumption - 1075kWh
Nepal Bhutan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Indian PowerMarket
Licensed Traders - 43Nos.
Generation Utilities ~ 160Nos.
Distribution Utilities ~ 55Nos.
Market Participants > 3000Nos.
Two Power Exchanges
Yearly Open AccessTransactions
~ 55,000 Nos. , Energy ~ 100 BUs
Short Term ~ 10%
HARNESSING DIVERSITY…REGIONALGRIDS
Typical All India LoadCurve
Monsoon
Summer
Winter
Solar Pumped Hydro
Diurnal Variation Seasonal Variation
Morning & Evening Peak @ 500 – 600 MW/min for 1 hour
Growth Prospect
17
Wind Potential ~ 100
GW(at 80 m hub- height)
Solar Potential ~ 750
GW(4-7 kWh per sq. m per
day)
National Offshore
Wind Energy Policy
Solar Cities~ 60 Nos.Green Energy
Corridors
Renewables
CAGR
~ 18 %
Total RES Installed Capacity : 72623.37 (as on 31.07.18)
34 Solar Parks – 20
GW
Solar RPO ~ 8 % of
total generation by
2022 (Excluding
Hydro)
Solar PV Reverse Bidding
~ Rs. 2.44/kWhr
Wind Atlas
Renewables on the Rise…MW to GW
Wind Reverse Auction
~ Rs 2.43 / kWhr
Power Scenario & Transmission Corridor requirement of India in
2021-22
500 (2030)
500 (2026)
Existing Challenges
in Generation,
Transmission and
Distribution Sector
• Fuel Availability: Supply constraints for domestic coal.
Imported coal to bridge the deficit.
Imported (Indonesia) coal poses significant political and legal
issues.
Limited Railway capacity (South Africa) and the capacity at ports
controlled by a group of existing users making it difficult for a
new entrant to ensure reliability.
• Problems of Coal Blocks: Only 24 blocks have become operational out of the total 210 nos.
Land acquisition (RULES AND REGULATION ) issues, permit
delays and infrastructure problems.
Lack of experience of the developers in coalmine development.
Capacity shortage for coal transportation by Indian Railways, at
the ports in India for imported coal.
Existing Challenges in Generation
Existing Challenges in Generation
• Equipment Shortage: Equipment shortages in the core components of Boilers,
Turbines and Generators, including coal-handling, ash- handling
plants, etc.
To alleviate supply shortage of equipment
Joint Ventures between Indian and Foreign suppliers.
Procuring equipment directly from international markets.
• Land Acquisition and Environment Clearance:
Delays regarding the availability of land and obtaining the
requisite environment and other clearances for the projects.
The new land Bill facing political opposition
70% acquisition by project developer.
30% by the Government.
Existing Challenges in Generation
• Financial Problem:
UMPP costing above INR 16,000 Crore, through private
investments, delay in payments may put severe pressure on
developers/suppliers to meet the performance commitments.
• Manpower Shortage: Talented manpower sought more lucrative career options.
Encouragement –
Flexibility in working hours.
Investment in existing employees.
Focus on training and higher salaries where possible.
• Right of way
• Forest clearances:
Norms regarding tower heights
and design can be considered for faster clearances.
• Time and cost over run:
Large number of clearances, no integrated processing leading to
delays, reduction in revenue earning period, and cost uncertainty
• Skilled Manpower : Efficient inflow of skilled manpower
• Modern project management:
Non timely monitoring and corrective actions leading to delays and
consequential losses.
Existing Challenges in Transmission
Existing Challenges in Distribution
• Lack of credible information :
Improper consumer database to provide exact baseline data about the
assets, consumers and finances is the biggest obstacle for the
DISCOMs for proper billing and collection of revenues.
Hinders decisions in estimating losses, arresting theft or making
investments.
• Regulatory Framework:
Infrequent tariff fixation
Inadequate coverage of increasing costs (change in fuel cost, transmission cost
etc.) resulting in loss for DISCOM.
Gap between the cost of supply and average tariff has actually worsened over
recent years.
Intervention in the working of DISCOMs and the regulator by other agencies
Disciplined standards of performance and penalties for service deficiencies.
• Better technology for DISCOMs:
Lack of infrastructure, equipment, automation, consumer interfaces
and services lead to huge losses.
Lack of funding for better and energy efficient technology instead of
and Government subsidies and cross subsidies.
• Agriculture and rural consumption segregation:
Segregation of agriculture (19% of country connected load) and rural
feeders.
Non segregation impacting loss calculations.
Agricultural consumption will help for subsidy estimations for the
state DISCOMs.
Subsidies are given to wealthy affluent farmer also.
Existing Challenges in Distribution
High Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses:
T&D losses correspond to electricity produced but not paid for.
T&D losses are caused by a variety of problems, including energy sold at
low voltage, sparsely distributed loads over large areas, inadequate
investments in the distribution system, improper billing and theft.
Deficiencies in revenue collection of utilities:
Energy losses, deficiencies in proper billing, revenue collection and financial
management are often aggravated by external interference.
Existing Challenges in Distribution
Existing Challenges in DistributionAggregate Transmission and Commercial (AT&C)
losses
Strategic Planning
for future business
growth in Power
sector
Renewable and Demand Response
is the Mantra
TRENDS TRANSFORMING THE POWER INDUSTRY
2
Characteristic Old New
Load Growth High Slow
Paradigm Centralized Decentralized
Generation Despatchable Intermittent
Fuel Fossil Renewables
Renewables Expensive Grid Parity
Grid Powerflow One-way Bi-directional
Customers Consumers Prosumers
Tariffs Volumetric Transactive
Demand Inflexible Price-responsive
Data Manageable Explosive Growth
Electric Vehicles Rare Massive Penetration
HISTORY OF THE FUTURE INDIANGRID
• Cross Border Transactions – Expanding Grid beyond borders
• TransactiveEnergy
• Energy Efficiency & DemandManagement
• Confluence of Energy andTransportation (EVs)
• Freedom and choice toconsumers
• Techgiants - Google andAmazon foray into energy market
• Smart Grid - Real time agents for market interaction
• Energy StorageSystems
• Certification – Capacity Building
• Sustainable Institutions
33
World Total and Coal Installed capacity
Solar
57%
Wind
34%
Bioma
ss
6%
Small
hydro…
Renewable Installed
Capacity Target by 2022
57,260
71,768
95,319
1,20,772
1,47,541
1,74,998
12,289
25,475
43,035
61,693
80,899
1,00,000
32,280 33,578
39,078 45,305
52,258 60,000
-10,000
40,000
90,000
1,40,000
1,90,000
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
20
20
-21
20
21
-22
MW
YEAR
Projected Growth of RES Installed Generating Capacity
(MW)
WIND
SOLAR
TOTAL
Government Targets & Installed Capacity
Source: https://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/annual-report/2016-2017/EN/pdf/1.pdf
TYPICAL ALL INDIA DEMAND & NET LOAD CURVE (2021-22)
34
20
36
75
20
03
24
19
69
01
19
47
71
19
53
54
19
94
12
20
49
88
20
55
98
20
51
94
20
71
61
20
94
87
21
03
31
20
80
52
20
52
04
20
45
51
20
53
89
20
54
10
20
28
24
20
23
70
22
07
98
22
57
51
22
10
86
21
77
90
21
57
02
19
68
01
19
43
56
19
11
76
18
88
76
18
86
36
19
24
83
19
87
26
19
40
79 17
26
74
15
66
13
14
71
47
14
10
50
13
67
40
13
79
38
14
56
95
16
07
06
17
94
18
19
31
63
19
43
62
21
03
23
21
53
26
21
12
14
20
77
65
20
70
85
1,11,000
1,31,000
1,51,000
1,71,000
1,91,000
2,11,000
2,31,000
2,51,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
HOUR
ALL INDIA DEMAND VS. NET DEMAND OF PEAK DAY
ALL INDIA DEMAND NET DEMAND
DUCK CURVE
Primary
•All India - 4000 MW
•Outage of Ultra Mega Power Plant (UMPP) or any similar event
• Automatic, Decentralized, mandated as per Grid Code
Secondary
• All India - 3623 MW
•NR – 800 MW
•WR – 800 MW
•SR – 1000 MW
•ER – 660 MW
•NER – 363 MW
• Automatic, regional level with suitable compensation
Tertiary
• All India - 5218 MW
•NR – 1658 MW
•WR – 1353 MW
•SR – 1343 MW
•ER – 857 MW
•NER – 65 MW
• Manual, state level
• UnRequisitioned Surplus
Reserves Services
Higher number of units should on Bar….
for handling large and fast ramps
Need of Adequate
Primary Response
from generators
(Presently under
RGMO and
inadequate response
observed)
Need of Pan India
Operation of AGC to
provide Secondary
Control for
balancing (Pilot
Project in Northern
Region Completed)
Requirement of
adoption of RRAS at
State level to have
adequate Tertiary
Control.
ANCILLARY SERVICES FACILITATING LARGE SCALE
INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN INDIA
Transmission Line Outage
17th June-2017, 765 kV Agra-Gwalior -1 line was taken under E/S/D from 12:15 to
15:30 Hrs. Import ATC of NR was reduced from 7400 to 6400MW
Demand Response participation in the energy markets -
France
Implicit Valuation Demand Response :
Integrated supply contract between Supplier and Consumers;
Settlement between Supplier and its Consumers-Monopoly;
Explicit Valuation Demand Response
Market based- Consumers access to Market through Aggregators;
Bilateral Agreement Model : Consumers – Aggregators;
Regulated Model : Independent Aggregators from suppliers, TSO, Regulatory
framework for financial issues, aggregation management, data management,
verification aspects of demand response block effectiveness ;
Demand Response Models
Demand Response programs (Eco-Signal and Eco-Reduction) of residential
consumers in Poland
Eco- Signal: 2 hour load curtailment in peak period, Voluntary participation, Communication:
SMS (Consumers , aggregators), Efficient Reaction: at least 50% load curtailment, Incentivized;
Eco-Reduction: maximum demand supervision module, any time in a day, Consumer Incentivized;
Aggregate baseline and aggregate load curtailment:
Block Ahead method (BA) - energy consumption during the curtailment block equals to energy
consumption within two hours prior to the curtailment block;
Day Ahead method (DA) – energy consumption during the curtailment block equals to energy
consumption within the hours of curtailment block on the day ahead (D-1);
Control Group method (CG) – energy consumption during the curtailment block is estimated
based on energy consumed by consumers allocated to the so called control group. The
consumers are paired based on the similarity of their load profiles.
Program Effectiveness: Eco-Reduction (40-47%) is more effective in respect of
Demand Side Response than Eco-Signal (20- 40%);
Demand Response Models
Distribution System Operator (DSO) –Transmission System Operator (TSO)
coordination used in effective management of potential of flexibility resources
(demand response and distribution generation) connected to the distribution
grid.
TSO centered Approach: - Belgium Market
TSOs and DSOs should cooperate to find the solution to allow TSOs to curtail Distributed
Generator or activate Demand System Response , wherever its connection point, in alert and
emergency system states;
It is necessary to define an efficient operational procedure when:
Both networks are affected by congestions (i.e. who acts first, who pays, etc.),
TSO balancing actions have an impact on DSOs and DSO congestion management actions have the
potential to affect the TSO network;
DSO centered Approach: -Denmark
DSO contracts flexibility to be used for distribution grid and can be re-sold to TSO or third parties.
Avoiding double booking of resources;
Demand Response Models
Subhendu Mukherjee
ERLDC, [email protected]