Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June...
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Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014
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Transcript of Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June...
Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures
Jonathan C. PeckPresident & Senior Futurist
June 13, 1014
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand Why Aspirations Matter
Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios
Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences
Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing
Aspirations Model
IAF’s approach:
Aspirational Futures
Forecasts Across Four Scenarios
Macro environment US economy Culture Government
HealthDefinitionStatusLocus
Health CareHealth Care DeliveryHealth Insurance CoverageHealth Information TechnologyNational Health Care Spending/GDP
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Personalized medicine – with clouds of data Many diseases prevented
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trialsFocus on health Social DeterminantsGreater Disparities
Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and MedicaidEconomic Gaps Grow Political ExtremesPronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
2020: 75 million uninsured Business ethics trump medical ethicsAffluent get medical advances Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics
Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics
Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone
Political change; shared vision; cooperation
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Local food & manufacturing
“Personal data clouds”; Massive community data
Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials
Personalized Vital Signs
Digital health agents,
gaming, social
networking
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home Most providers integrated, capitated Healthy communities; self care decreases demand for physician services and hospital care
Community Centered
Health Home
Triple Aim Effective self-care
Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Innate human drive for healthy growthSystems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domainsLeaders creating environments for health
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youthReality TV shows what a “good death” looks likeHealth care incorporates new patient’s values
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Health care spending capped locally
Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions
2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory
Scenario 4: A Culture of Health
Likelihood Preferability
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Likelihood and Preferability
Recommend New Health Roles
Recommend Tech For Health Metrics
Recommend New Leadership
Recommend Remove Barriers to Health
From 2032 Back To 2014
Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in 2032.
What would you be doing in 2014 to help?
Are there new health roles for nurses?
How will you measure nursing progress?
Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?
Thank you!
Jonathan PeckPresident & Senior FuturistInstitute for Alternative Futures
