Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

46
©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Automotive industry update Melinda Zabritski Experian #vision2014
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In this Vision 2014 Conference presentation we provide a detailed look at the market, the vehicles and the people who buy them.

Transcript of Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

Page 1: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

© 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in

any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.

Automotive industry update

Melinda Zabritski Experian

#vision2014

Page 2: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

2 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Discussion points

What’s on the road

Market share and registrations

Finance and delinquency

Originations and payment trends

Page 3: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Vehicles in operation

What’s on the road today?

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Vehicles in

operation

2013

246.1 million

What’s on the road today

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Vehicles in

operation

2012

247 million

Scrapped

vehicles

16.2 million

Carryover

New vehicle sales

15.3 million

Used vehicle sales

39.1 million

VIO additions/deletions: 31.5 million (12.8%) (scrapped + new sales)

VIO total changes: 70.6 million (28.7%) (used sales + scrappage + new sales)

Page 5: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0

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ns

VIO by model year

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 6: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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VIO by model year

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Mil

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ns

98 million vehicles

within “sweet spot”

(MY2002–2008)

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 7: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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VIO by model year

0

2

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10

12

14

16

201

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69

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Mil

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ns

Shrinking sweet spot in the

coming year (-4.2 to 93.8 million)

plus estimated 1 million scrap

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 8: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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9.5 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.4

6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Average Age 15-Year Rolling Age

Average age of vehicles on the road today

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 9: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Vehicle registrations

and market share

What metal is moving?

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Millio

ns

New Used

Annual vehicle registrations

22% 25% 27% 24%

28%

47.4

51.5 55.1

49.5 53.6

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 11: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Census regions

West Region

South Region

Northeast

Region

Midwest Region

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0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Millio

ns

Midwest Region Northeast Region South Region West Region

Total (new and used) registrations by census region

4.4%

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 13: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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New and used registrations by region (millions)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Midwest region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Northeast region

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

South region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

West region

19.9% 21.1% 24.4% 25.1%

New Used

23.1% 27.8% 29.3% 32.6% 33.4% 30.8%

20.6% 21.8% 26.4% 28.0% 23.2% 22.1% 24.2% 27.7% 28.8% 25.6%

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 14: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Pickup -Full Sized

CUV - EntryLevel

Small Car -Economy

Mid RangeCar -

Standard

Mid RangeCar - Lower

CUV - MidRange

SUV -Lower Mid

Range

Alt Power CUV -Premium

Van - Mini

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

2012 2013

Top new registrations by segment

30.6% 30.0%

138,000 more Alt Power

registrations in 2013 than

prior year

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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0 200000 400000

Pickup - Full Sized

CUV - Entry Level

SUV - Lower Mid Range

Alt Power

Small Car - Economy

CUV - Premium

CUV - Mid Range

Mid Range Car - Standard

Upscale - Near Luxury

Upscale - Luxury

Winners

-60000 -40000 -20000 0

SUV - Entry Level

Mid Range Car -Premium

Pickup - Small

Van - Mini

Sport Car - Touring

Traditional Car

Upscale - Premium

Small Car - Budget

Sport Car - Ultra Luxury

Losers

Winners and losers by year-over-year registration change

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 16: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Top and bottom states for hybrid registrations (by share of state registrations)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

CA OR DC WA HI VA NC MD VT AZ

Top-10 hybrid states

0%

1%

2%

3%

MIMSMOSDOKWVWYLAAKND

Bottom-10 hybrid states

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 17: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Top-5 new segments by region

0%

5%

10%

15%

Small Car- Economy

Mid RangeCar -

Standard

Pickup -Full Sized

CUV -EntryLevel

Mid RangeCar -Lower

Western region

0%

5%

10%

15%

Pickup -Full Sized

CUV -EntryLevel

Small Car- Economy

Mid RangeCar -Lower

Mid RangeCar -

Standard

Midwest region

0%

5%

10%

15%

CUV -EntryLevel

Mid RangeCar -

Standard

Small Car- Economy

Mid RangeCar -Lower

Pickup -Full Sized

Northeast region

0%

5%

10%

15%

Pickup -Full Sized

Small Car- Economy

Mid RangeCar -

Standard

CUV -EntryLevel

Mid RangeCar -Lower

South region

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 18: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Import vs. domestic new registrations and market share by region (millions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Midwest region

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Northeast region

0

1

2

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4

5

6

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

South region

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

West region

60.5% 61.5% 62.7% 60.9%

Import Domestic

62.0% 35.8% 36.2% 40.5% 38.5% 39.5%

37.1% 37.7% 39.9% 37.6% 38.4% 48.0% 48.8% 49.1% 47.6% 48.0%

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 19: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Manufacturer market share (ranking based on 2013 share)

GM 18.0%

Ford 15.2%

Toyota 14.5%

Chrysler 11.3%

Honda 9.9%

Nissan 7.9%

Hyundai 4.8%

VW 4.0%

Kia 3.9%

Others 10.5%

2012 GM

17.9%

Ford 15.6%

Toyota 14.4%

Chrysler 11.5%

Honda 9.9%

Nissan 8.1%

Hyundai 4.6%

VW 3.7%

Kia 3.5%

Others 10.8%

2013 Who is up (bps)?

Ford 42

Others 38

Chrysler 20

Nissan 18

Honda 2

Who is down (bps)?

Kia -42

VW -32

Hyundai -22

Toyota -14

GM -10

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 20: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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2.3%

2.3%

2.1%

1.9%

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

0.3%

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

1.8%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Subaru

BMW

Daimler

Mazda

Tata

Volvo

Mitsubishi

Porsche

Others

2012 2013

Manufacturer market share: Top “others”

Who is up (bps)?

Subaru 40

BMW 7

Tata 5

Daimler 4

Porsche 4

Who is down (bps)?

Mitsubishi -1

Volvo -6

Mazda -9

Others -4

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 21: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Top-5 new manufacturer market share by region

0%

10%

20%

30%

Toyota Ford GM Honda Chrysler

Western region

0%

10%

20%

30%

GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Honda

Midwest region

0%

10%

20%

30%

Toyota GM Honda Ford Chrysler

Northeast region

0%

10%

20%

30%

GM Toyota Ford Chrysler Nissan

South region

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 22: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0

20

40

60

80

100

Ford Chrysler Subaru Honda Nissan

Midwest region

0

20

40

60

80

100

Subaru Chrysler Ford GM BMW

Northeast region

0

20

40

60

80

Subaru Ford Tesla Nissan Mazda

West region

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ford Subaru Nissan Chrysler Hyundai

South region

Top-5 manufacturer market share gains (basis points) by region

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 23: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

F150 Escape Fusion Silverado1500

Equinox

Midwest region

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Accord CR-V Civic Camry Altima

Northeast region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Civic Camry Accord F150 Corolla

West region

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

F150 Camry Altima Silverado1500

Corolla

South region

Top-5 new models registered by region

2012 2013

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 24: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Overall automotive

finance market

Market overview and delinquency

Page 25: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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$695 $714 $703 $655 $634

$658

$719

$799

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Bil

lio

ns

Total outstanding automotive loan balance

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

Page 26: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0.74% 0.72%

0.94%

0.65%

0.65% 0.71%

0.48%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

Q4 2013Q4 2012Q4 2011Q4 2010Q4 2009Q4 2008Q4 2007Q4 2006

60-DPD Repo

Delinquency rates on automotive loans

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

Page 27: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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New and used

originations

Automotive financing in the

fourth quarter 2013

Page 28: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Percentage of transactions without a lien holder

78.7% 75.0%

84.1%

51.2% 45.9%

52.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New UsedSource: Experian Automotive

Page 29: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

20

07

20

06

20

05

20

04

20

03

20

02

20

01

20

00

19

99

19

98

19

97

19

96

19

95

19

94

19

93

19

92

19

91

19

90

<19

90

Percentage of cash payment by used model year

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 30: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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20.65%

23.66% 23.13% 24.79%

28.84%

16.8%

19.2% 19.0% 20.3%

24.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Share of new financing Share of all new

New lease market share

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 31: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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69.5%

59.3%

53.2% 52.5% 52.1% 49.3%

45.3% 44.0% 43.1% 40.8%

0.2%

2.3%

1.3%

4.9%

5.8%

4.6%

0.2%

4.9%

2.1% 2.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

SMAR INFI LINC BMW MERZ LEXS JAGU VOLK AUDI CADI

% of all new make as a lease Share of new lease market

Q4 2013 Top-10 new makes* with greatest lease concentration

*Minimum of 3,000 for quarter

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 32: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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709

736

715

728

712

750

702

732

716

735

703

721

714 715

708

727

712

719

692

728

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

Loan score Lease score

Average score comparison on top new leased models

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 33: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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$349

$416 $414 $427 $431 $420 $413 $435

$389

$611

$247

$325 $312 $334 $329 $330

$296 $337

$287

$470

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Loan payment Lease payment

Average payment comparison on top new leased models

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 34: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Market snapshot on vehicle loan financing What and where are consumers financing?

48.93% 48.90%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Current +5 model year

New 37.52% Used

62.48%

Loans by vehicle type

54.7%

45.3%

Used financing by dealer type

Independent Franchise

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 35: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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Score categories

Score ranges

Category VantageScore® 3.0

Super prime 740+

Prime 680–739

Nonprime 620–679

Subprime 550–619

Deep subprime <550

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2.22% 1.35% 1.34% 1.64% 2.03% 2.96%

11.36% 8.44% 9.70% 11.13% 12.07% 10.81%

17.76% 16.34% 17.71% 18.38% 18.71% 20.32%

18.78% 18.83%

18.82% 18.47% 18.54% 21.59%

49.88% 55.04% 52.43% 50.38% 48.65% 44.32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime

Quarterly financing for new vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive

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17.96% 15.99% 13.62% 13.89% 14.60% 17.63%

25.01% 22.31% 24.21% 26.57% 27.11% 21.94%

19.87% 20.08% 21.62%

22.16% 22.11% 23.23%

14.53% 15.56% 15.64%

14.69% 14.46% 17.71%

22.64% 26.05% 24.92% 22.69% 21.72% 19.49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime

Quarterly financing for used vehicles

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 38: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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$24,437 $24,655

$25,067

$25,503 $25,789

$26,419 $26,691

$27,430

$22,000

$23,000

$24,000

$25,000

$26,000

$27,000

$28,000

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Avg MSRP Amount Financed

Rising prices and loan amounts on new vehicles

108% 110% 110% 110%

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 39: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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$13,968 $14,341 $14,339 $14,604

$16,992 $17,390 $17,629 $17,974

$

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

Avg Trade-In Amount Financed

Rising prices and loan amounts on used vehicles

130% 130% 133% 134%

Source: Experian Automotive

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$464 $468 $460 $471

$347 $349 $348 $352

$

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

New payment Used payment

Average payments

Source: Experian Automotive

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63 63

65 65

58

60 60

61

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

New term Used term

Average terms

Source: Experian Automotive

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4.5% 4.7%

28.5%

41.2%

20.1%

-5.5%

1.3%

-4.8% -3.9%

19.0%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84

New financing by term

% of new financing by term

YOY change in term

7.2%

12.7%

26.5%

39.0%

12.5%

-5.8% -7.0%

-8.2%

3.9%

23.2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84

Used financing by term

% of used financing by term

YOY change in term

Distribution of loan term How have loan terms changed?

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 43: Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update

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4.84% 4.52% 4.36% 4.37%

8.71% 8.67% 8.48% 8.71%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

New rate Used rate

Average rates

Source: Experian Automotive

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Overall automotive market decreased slightly (0.4%) with near-term shrinking of “sweet spot” older model year vehicles

Total registrations have increased nearly 3% YOY with new vehicles gaining an increase share of total registrations

Overall, open portfolios continuing to experience growth

Steady delinquency behavior

Financing for consumers continues to expand as consumers rely upon the lending market for vehicle purchase with strong growth in leasing

Loan amounts and payments inching up with slight increases in rates

In summary

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