Computer Vision and AI for Automotive Safety ... - Tensilica
Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update
-
date post
14-Sep-2014 -
Category
Automotive
-
view
104 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Vision 2014: Automotive Industry Update
© 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in
any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Automotive industry update
Melinda Zabritski Experian
#vision2014
2 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Discussion points
What’s on the road
Market share and registrations
Finance and delinquency
Originations and payment trends
3 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicles in operation
What’s on the road today?
4 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicles in
operation
2013
246.1 million
What’s on the road today
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Vehicles in
operation
2012
247 million
Scrapped
vehicles
16.2 million
Carryover
New vehicle sales
15.3 million
Used vehicle sales
39.1 million
VIO additions/deletions: 31.5 million (12.8%) (scrapped + new sales)
VIO total changes: 70.6 million (28.7%) (used sales + scrappage + new sales)
5 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
15
201
3
201
1
200
9
200
7
200
5
200
3
200
1
199
9
199
7
199
5
199
3
199
1
19
89
198
7
198
5
198
3
198
1
197
9
197
7
197
5
197
3
197
1
196
9
196
7
Mil
lio
ns
VIO by model year
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
6 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO by model year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
201
5
201
3
201
1
200
9
200
7
200
5
200
3
200
1
199
9
199
7
19
95
199
3
199
1
198
9
198
7
198
5
198
3
198
1
197
9
197
7
197
5
197
3
197
1
19
69
196
7
Mil
lio
ns
98 million vehicles
within “sweet spot”
(MY2002–2008)
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
7 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
VIO by model year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
201
5
201
3
201
1
200
9
200
7
200
5
200
3
200
1
199
9
199
7
19
95
199
3
199
1
198
9
198
7
198
5
198
3
198
1
197
9
197
7
197
5
197
3
197
1
19
69
196
7
Mil
lio
ns
Shrinking sweet spot in the
coming year (-4.2 to 93.8 million)
plus estimated 1 million scrap
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
8 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
9.5 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.4
6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Average Age 15-Year Rolling Age
Average age of vehicles on the road today
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
9 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Vehicle registrations
and market share
What metal is moving?
10 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millio
ns
New Used
Annual vehicle registrations
22% 25% 27% 24%
28%
47.4
51.5 55.1
49.5 53.6
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
11 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Census regions
West Region
South Region
Northeast
Region
Midwest Region
12 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millio
ns
Midwest Region Northeast Region South Region West Region
Total (new and used) registrations by census region
4.4%
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
13 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New and used registrations by region (millions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Midwest region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Northeast region
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
West region
19.9% 21.1% 24.4% 25.1%
New Used
23.1% 27.8% 29.3% 32.6% 33.4% 30.8%
20.6% 21.8% 26.4% 28.0% 23.2% 22.1% 24.2% 27.7% 28.8% 25.6%
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
14 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Pickup -Full Sized
CUV - EntryLevel
Small Car -Economy
Mid RangeCar -
Standard
Mid RangeCar - Lower
CUV - MidRange
SUV -Lower Mid
Range
Alt Power CUV -Premium
Van - Mini
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
2012 2013
Top new registrations by segment
30.6% 30.0%
138,000 more Alt Power
registrations in 2013 than
prior year
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
15 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0 200000 400000
Pickup - Full Sized
CUV - Entry Level
SUV - Lower Mid Range
Alt Power
Small Car - Economy
CUV - Premium
CUV - Mid Range
Mid Range Car - Standard
Upscale - Near Luxury
Upscale - Luxury
Winners
-60000 -40000 -20000 0
SUV - Entry Level
Mid Range Car -Premium
Pickup - Small
Van - Mini
Sport Car - Touring
Traditional Car
Upscale - Premium
Small Car - Budget
Sport Car - Ultra Luxury
Losers
Winners and losers by year-over-year registration change
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
16 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Top and bottom states for hybrid registrations (by share of state registrations)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
CA OR DC WA HI VA NC MD VT AZ
Top-10 hybrid states
0%
1%
2%
3%
MIMSMOSDOKWVWYLAAKND
Bottom-10 hybrid states
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
17 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Top-5 new segments by region
0%
5%
10%
15%
Small Car- Economy
Mid RangeCar -
Standard
Pickup -Full Sized
CUV -EntryLevel
Mid RangeCar -Lower
Western region
0%
5%
10%
15%
Pickup -Full Sized
CUV -EntryLevel
Small Car- Economy
Mid RangeCar -Lower
Mid RangeCar -
Standard
Midwest region
0%
5%
10%
15%
CUV -EntryLevel
Mid RangeCar -
Standard
Small Car- Economy
Mid RangeCar -Lower
Pickup -Full Sized
Northeast region
0%
5%
10%
15%
Pickup -Full Sized
Small Car- Economy
Mid RangeCar -
Standard
CUV -EntryLevel
Mid RangeCar -Lower
South region
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
18 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Import vs. domestic new registrations and market share by region (millions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Midwest region
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Northeast region
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South region
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
West region
60.5% 61.5% 62.7% 60.9%
Import Domestic
62.0% 35.8% 36.2% 40.5% 38.5% 39.5%
37.1% 37.7% 39.9% 37.6% 38.4% 48.0% 48.8% 49.1% 47.6% 48.0%
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
19 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Manufacturer market share (ranking based on 2013 share)
GM 18.0%
Ford 15.2%
Toyota 14.5%
Chrysler 11.3%
Honda 9.9%
Nissan 7.9%
Hyundai 4.8%
VW 4.0%
Kia 3.9%
Others 10.5%
2012 GM
17.9%
Ford 15.6%
Toyota 14.4%
Chrysler 11.5%
Honda 9.9%
Nissan 8.1%
Hyundai 4.6%
VW 3.7%
Kia 3.5%
Others 10.8%
2013 Who is up (bps)?
Ford 42
Others 38
Chrysler 20
Nissan 18
Honda 2
Who is down (bps)?
Kia -42
VW -32
Hyundai -22
Toyota -14
GM -10
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
20 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Subaru
BMW
Daimler
Mazda
Tata
Volvo
Mitsubishi
Porsche
Others
2012 2013
Manufacturer market share: Top “others”
Who is up (bps)?
Subaru 40
BMW 7
Tata 5
Daimler 4
Porsche 4
Who is down (bps)?
Mitsubishi -1
Volvo -6
Mazda -9
Others -4
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
21 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Top-5 new manufacturer market share by region
0%
10%
20%
30%
Toyota Ford GM Honda Chrysler
Western region
0%
10%
20%
30%
GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Honda
Midwest region
0%
10%
20%
30%
Toyota GM Honda Ford Chrysler
Northeast region
0%
10%
20%
30%
GM Toyota Ford Chrysler Nissan
South region
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
22 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ford Chrysler Subaru Honda Nissan
Midwest region
0
20
40
60
80
100
Subaru Chrysler Ford GM BMW
Northeast region
0
20
40
60
80
Subaru Ford Tesla Nissan Mazda
West region
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ford Subaru Nissan Chrysler Hyundai
South region
Top-5 manufacturer market share gains (basis points) by region
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
23 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
F150 Escape Fusion Silverado1500
Equinox
Midwest region
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Accord CR-V Civic Camry Altima
Northeast region
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Civic Camry Accord F150 Corolla
West region
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
F150 Camry Altima Silverado1500
Corolla
South region
Top-5 new models registered by region
2012 2013
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
24 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Overall automotive
finance market
Market overview and delinquency
25 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
$695 $714 $703 $655 $634
$658
$719
$799
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Bil
lio
ns
Total outstanding automotive loan balance
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
26 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0.74% 0.72%
0.94%
0.65%
0.65% 0.71%
0.48%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
Q4 2013Q4 2012Q4 2011Q4 2010Q4 2009Q4 2008Q4 2007Q4 2006
60-DPD Repo
Delinquency rates on automotive loans
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
27 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New and used
originations
Automotive financing in the
fourth quarter 2013
28 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Percentage of transactions without a lien holder
78.7% 75.0%
84.1%
51.2% 45.9%
52.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
New UsedSource: Experian Automotive
29 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
<19
90
Percentage of cash payment by used model year
Source: Experian Automotive
30 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
20.65%
23.66% 23.13% 24.79%
28.84%
16.8%
19.2% 19.0% 20.3%
24.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Share of new financing Share of all new
New lease market share
Source: Experian Automotive
31 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
69.5%
59.3%
53.2% 52.5% 52.1% 49.3%
45.3% 44.0% 43.1% 40.8%
0.2%
2.3%
1.3%
4.9%
5.8%
4.6%
0.2%
4.9%
2.1% 2.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
SMAR INFI LINC BMW MERZ LEXS JAGU VOLK AUDI CADI
% of all new make as a lease Share of new lease market
Q4 2013 Top-10 new makes* with greatest lease concentration
*Minimum of 3,000 for quarter
Source: Experian Automotive
32 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
709
736
715
728
712
750
702
732
716
735
703
721
714 715
708
727
712
719
692
728
660
670
680
690
700
710
720
730
740
750
760
Loan score Lease score
Average score comparison on top new leased models
Source: Experian Automotive
33 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
$349
$416 $414 $427 $431 $420 $413 $435
$389
$611
$247
$325 $312 $334 $329 $330
$296 $337
$287
$470
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Loan payment Lease payment
Average payment comparison on top new leased models
Source: Experian Automotive
34 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Market snapshot on vehicle loan financing What and where are consumers financing?
48.93% 48.90%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Current +5 model year
New 37.52% Used
62.48%
Loans by vehicle type
54.7%
45.3%
Used financing by dealer type
Independent Franchise
Source: Experian Automotive
35 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Score categories
Score ranges
Category VantageScore® 3.0
Super prime 740+
Prime 680–739
Nonprime 620–679
Subprime 550–619
Deep subprime <550
36 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
2.22% 1.35% 1.34% 1.64% 2.03% 2.96%
11.36% 8.44% 9.70% 11.13% 12.07% 10.81%
17.76% 16.34% 17.71% 18.38% 18.71% 20.32%
18.78% 18.83%
18.82% 18.47% 18.54% 21.59%
49.88% 55.04% 52.43% 50.38% 48.65% 44.32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime
Quarterly financing for new vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive
37 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
17.96% 15.99% 13.62% 13.89% 14.60% 17.63%
25.01% 22.31% 24.21% 26.57% 27.11% 21.94%
19.87% 20.08% 21.62%
22.16% 22.11% 23.23%
14.53% 15.56% 15.64%
14.69% 14.46% 17.71%
22.64% 26.05% 24.92% 22.69% 21.72% 19.49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime
Quarterly financing for used vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive
38 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
$24,437 $24,655
$25,067
$25,503 $25,789
$26,419 $26,691
$27,430
$22,000
$23,000
$24,000
$25,000
$26,000
$27,000
$28,000
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Avg MSRP Amount Financed
Rising prices and loan amounts on new vehicles
108% 110% 110% 110%
Source: Experian Automotive
39 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
$13,968 $14,341 $14,339 $14,604
$16,992 $17,390 $17,629 $17,974
$
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Avg Trade-In Amount Financed
Rising prices and loan amounts on used vehicles
130% 130% 133% 134%
Source: Experian Automotive
40 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
$464 $468 $460 $471
$347 $349 $348 $352
$
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
New payment Used payment
Average payments
Source: Experian Automotive
41 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
63 63
65 65
58
60 60
61
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
New term Used term
Average terms
Source: Experian Automotive
42 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
4.5% 4.7%
28.5%
41.2%
20.1%
-5.5%
1.3%
-4.8% -3.9%
19.0%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84
New financing by term
% of new financing by term
YOY change in term
7.2%
12.7%
26.5%
39.0%
12.5%
-5.8% -7.0%
-8.2%
3.9%
23.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84
Used financing by term
% of used financing by term
YOY change in term
Distribution of loan term How have loan terms changed?
Source: Experian Automotive
43 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
4.84% 4.52% 4.36% 4.37%
8.71% 8.67% 8.48% 8.71%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013
New rate Used rate
Average rates
Source: Experian Automotive
44 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Overall automotive market decreased slightly (0.4%) with near-term shrinking of “sweet spot” older model year vehicles
Total registrations have increased nearly 3% YOY with new vehicles gaining an increase share of total registrations
Overall, open portfolios continuing to experience growth
Steady delinquency behavior
Financing for consumers continues to expand as consumers rely upon the lending market for vehicle purchase with strong growth in leasing
Loan amounts and payments inching up with slight increases in rates
In summary
45 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
For additional information, please contact:
Hear the latest from Vision 2014
in the Daily Roundup:
www.experian.com/vision/blog
@ExperianVision | #vision2014
Follow us on Twitter
46 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Visit the Experian Expert Bar to learn more about
the topics and products covered in this presentation.