Virtualisation: Reaching tipping point? - stlpartners.com · © STL Partners | Proprietary and ......
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Virtualisation:Reaching tipping point?The evidence from the NFV Deployment Tracker
Webinar, 22 May 2019
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Virtualisation: Reaching tipping point?
Phil LaidlerPartner
@PhilLaidlerSTL
David MartinAssociate Senior Analyst
Matt PooleyVirtualisation Lead
@pooley_matt
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What’s happening with telco NFV?David Martin
Associate Senior Analyst
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Our NFV Deployment Tracker
• STL Partners’ NFV Deployment Tracker is a comprehensive and reliable source of market
intelligence on NFV and SDN in live telco networks
• Updated quarterly – Excel spreadsheet of global database, and regional or global analytical
reports
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Data sources for this webinar
• Data is taken from the latest update of the NFV Deployment
Tracker, due end of May 2019
• This includes info on 479 live, commercial deployments of NFV
and SDN technology across 105 mainly Tier-One networks
worldwide
• Data is drawn largely from publicly available information plus
some confidential information from operators
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How do we define a ‘deployment’?
• If the same NFV platform is rolled out across multiple operator natcos, we count this as a single deployment
• A lot of virtualisation is not publicised by telcos or vendors: ‘minor’ network functions
• But the most critical deployments – if successful – are eventually publicised, and feature in the Tracker
The implementation of a given Virtualised Network Function (VNF) and any named sub-components, or of a whole NFV or SDN solution including several
explicitly referenced VNFs and components
479 deployments comprise 1,000
instances of VNFs and other NFV or SDN
components in live telco networks
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• Growth appeared to slow in 2018 but
has accelerated in 2019
• Completed 2019 deployments correct
to April (more will be publicised later
in 2019 and 2020)
NFV / SDN deployments keep growing
Deployments not yet reported as completed - we expect to be finalised
by end 2019
So on track for 150 to 200 deployments in 2019
16
47
85
121
130
21
48
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total new NFV / SDN deployments - global
Deployed Pending
69
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Audience vote: What is driving NFV deployments today?
26%
29%
3%
43%
Move to 5G
Cost cutting
Growth in 4G
Service innovation& business models
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124
105 2 4 5
27
13
16
103
6 2
23
32
21
11
87
5
37
36
17
7
117
6
34
7
8
82
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Core NFs SD-WAN SDN vCPE - cloud-based MANO platformsand components
Cloud and NFVinfrastructure only
Edge and access Residential CPE vCPE - premises-based
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Almost as many virtualised mobile core deployments in
2019 YTD (34) as in the whole of 2018 (37)
• In 2018, we observed reluctance by leading operators to
commit to virtualised mobile core platforms:
– Uncertainty whether they were ‘5G-ready’
– Doubts about performance and costs
– Demand for ‘cloud-native’, vendor-neutral platforms
• In 2019, by contrast, vendors’ (purportedly) cloud-native,
5G-ready platforms are winning business
Mobile core virtualisation is driving the growthDeployments by primary purpose
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Ericsson and Nokia lead in recent virtual mobile core deployments
Virtualised mobile packet core deployments: leading vendors, 2018/19
12
10
6
5
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ericsson’s and Nokia’s success driven by ‘cloud (packet) core’ platforms
Huawei hurt by recent bad
press?
Success with innovators: Turkcell,
du, SoftBank
Leading vendor of mobile core (23
deployments 2015-9)
Big wins in past six months include:
• Rakuten (Japan): multi-vendor deployment – core combining Nokia and Cisco elements
• Telenor: Ericsson core VNFs on-boarded to Nokia cloud packet-core platform
• KT (Korea): Cisco platform supporting consumer 5G launch
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Differing focus drives overall volume by region
25
17
5
20
9
13
16
13
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Core SD-WAN SDN
Core, SD-WAN and SDN deployments by region, 2018 and 2019
Europe
APAC
N America
74
59
48
118
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EUROPE APAC NAM ME LAM AFRICA
Deployments by region, 2018 and 2019
• Europe’s lead in 2018/9 driven by mobile core virtualisation – historically strong in the region
• SD-WAN is top category in N America since 2017, but volume of new deployments is falling there
• Asia-Pacific historically marked by innovative SDN roll-outs – core and SD-WAN also strong
• Overall, Asia-Pacific is the leading region: 33% of all deployments (Europe 32%, N America 25%)
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Vodafone and Telefónica are the leading telcos
33
25
19
1716
1514
13 13
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Leading operators by number of deploymentsVodafone’s activity focused on NFVi and mobile core: several
non-public-domain deployments added to our aggregate data set
Rolling out its ‘UNICA’ NFViglobally and doing vEPC
across all markets – taking longer than planned
Verizon’s and AT&T’s totals reflect their mainly single-market focus.Recent focus on NFVi, RAN and
core elements supporting 5G
Of the other players shown here, only SK Telecom has released significant information on mobile
core plans ahead of 5G – recent activity by others focused on enterprise services and platform
elements: SDN, SD-WAN, vCPE
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Preliminary conclusions: mobile core and 5G drive growth –but cloud-native 5G mobile cores still some way off
• Volume of NFV / SDN deployments enjoying healthy growth
• Driven by actual and planned 5G roll-outs
• Telcos are (to some extent) buying in to vendors’ promises that their ‘cloud-native’ mobile packet cores present a migration path from 4G to 5G: ‘non-standalone’ (NSA) to ‘standalone’ (SA)
• But substantive issues on core and NFV in general remain unresolved: competing software standards, performance, RoI, vendor-neutrality, use cases / business models, and true cloud-native
• Arguably, no one – not even AT&T – has yet delivered a truly cloud-native virtual mobile core, let alone a 5G core
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Is 5G the tipping point?Matt Pooley
Virtualisation Lead
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While there is no 5G killer app on the scene…
5G = powerful tool
lowcost
speed capacityexcited
customers
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… and the 5G investment cycle is emerging now
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028+
Fixed wireless access
Enhanced mobile broadband with 4G fall-back
Massive M2M / IoT
Enhanced mobile broadband (pure 5G)
Ultra low-latency IoT
Verticals
Fixed wireless access
Enhanced mobile broadband with 4G fall-back
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Virtualisation of 4G core is clear step towards “proper 5G”…
EPC
LTE
“4G”
LTE
EPC UP
EPC CP
“4G CUPS”
LTE NR
EPC UP
EPC CP
“Option 3”
LTE NR
5GC UP
5GC CP
“5G”
Now Soon 2020+
Transition
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Cure 4G headaches
Reduce cost of traffic growth
Sweat existing assets
Prepare for 5G rollout
Adapt to “cloudy” operations
“Easy” to add 5G radio…
… and move to 5G core when vendors can deliver and MNO ready
… and it makes sense short- and long-term
Virtualise for new and end-of-
life 4G traffic
4G still a big challenge
LTE data traffic growing fast –but not revenues
Need to release value from expensive LTE rollouts
5G pressure mounting
Pressure to deliver 5G…
… core not coming until 2020+
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Growing push to solve (many) remaining problems indicates that momentum is building
“Cloud native” availability
“Software first” NFs
Microservices architecture
Vendors talking
Telcos experimenting
PNFs being “re-written”
5G maturity
Radio that works
5G core available
BTS already shipping
FWA working, mobile <12mo
Vendors racing for core
NFV performance & reliability
“Better” than PNFs
Scales properly
High pressure on vendors
Function perf. improving
Increasingly “open” platforms
= Virtualisation going mainstream
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Audience vote: Virtualisation at tipping point - do you agree?
55%
6%
39%
Yes
No
More evidence required!
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Questions or [email protected]
stlpartners.com/nfv
@STLPartners