VIRGINIA IN THE FUTURE TRENDS ANALYSIS MULTIMODAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING - AUGUST 4, 2014

1

2

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N

• Part of the first phase of developing VTrans2040

• Understanding the future trends that may shape current policies

TRENDS (what the world may look like in 2040)

OUTCOMES (what transportation may look like in 2040)

TRENDS ANALYSIS:

3

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N What is

Virginia’s Future Economy?

What are its Transportation

Needs?

KEY QUESTIONS

4

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL

ECONOMIC

TECHNOLOGICAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

1 REVIEW TRENDS:

2 COMBINE DATA:

A

B

3 GET INPUT:

SYNTHESIS

WHAT DO YOU SAY? ?

5

DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL

6

Virginia’s Population will Grow

Virginia’s Projected Population Growth by 2040 Projected Population Growth (2040) in US vs. VA

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

7

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Our forecasts are uncertain – even more so in the smallest areas of study

Projected Population vs. Actual Population over 20 Years

Forecasts are Humbling

Forecasts Can Disagree

8

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? To understand where transportation needs will be concentrated

Ten Jurisdictions Displaying Greatest Total Population Increases

Continued Population Concentrations

Projected Population Growth

9

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

Older Virginians are an expanding proportion of the population in 2040

Ten Jurisdictions Displaying Highest Increase in 65+ Population by 2040

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Some elderly will need more travel options as they age

Virginia is Aging

10

2040 Ratio of Seniors to Youth

Top Quartile of Jurisdictions with Highest Seniors to Youth Ratios (averaging 1.3)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This trend has implications for paratransit, school transportation, and land development

Statewide Ratio in 2012 = 0.5

Statewide Ratio in 2040 = 0.7

75th percentile in 2040 = 1.3

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

11

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Millenials are often the workforce for the fastest growing economic sectors

Ten Jurisdictions with the Highest Increase in Millenial Population

Millenial Population

12

For Every Ten Virginians in 2012:

DEM

OG

RA

PH

IC /

SO

CIA

L

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Economic growth depends on attractiveness to migrants / immigrants

Migration & Immigration

13

ECONOMIC

Top 5 Industry Sectors by Payroll Statewide (2040)

14

*Retail replaces state/local govt. when ranking in terms of employment. All others maintain same rank.

Growth in Key Sectors

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These economic sectors will be key contributors to Virginia’s economy

ECO

NO

MIC

15 15

Economic Activity in Key Regions

2012 % of Total State Employment

2012 % of Total State GDP

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These areas are key contributors to Virginia’s economy today

37% of Total State GDP

47% of Total State Employment

ECO

NO

MIC

16

Economic Concentrations by Region

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Different Industry sectors will have different workforce and transportation needs

Retail Trade Employment (2040 Note the Rural Concentration

Health Care and Social Assistance Payroll (2040) Note the Rural Concentration

Professional Services Employment (2040) Note the Urban Concentration

Finance and Insurance Payroll (2040) Note the Urban Concentration

Higher Total Payroll

Higher Employment

Measuring Relative Change in Industrial Specialization through Location Quotient (LQ) Analysis

• While the greatest magnitude of job gains occur in the largest counties, LQ Analysis can show which counties have seen the greatest relative change in industrial specialization

Largest Gains in Professional Services (NAICS 54) 2001-2013

• Lynchburg

• Architectural and Engineering Services + 3.04 LQ

• Albemarle County

• Scientific Research and Development + 2.63 LQ

• Bedford County

• Advertising + 2.29 LQ 17

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Concentrations of key industries indicate local/ regional workforce and transportation needs

18

Freight Concentrations by Region

Legend

county selection

ChangeTonsPCT

-35 to 0

0 to 20

20 to 35

35 to 50

50 to 86

Legend

county selection

CombTons2040

222 to 3,000

3,000 to 6,500

6,500 to 12,000

12,000 to 22,000

22,000 to 62,000

Legend

county selection

Comb2040Value

211 to 2,000

2,000 to 5,000

5,000 to 10,000

10,000 to 22,000

22,000 to 112,000

2012

2040

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Note growth in I-81 and 58 corridors – important to understand future corridor needs

Truck Value Growth Virginia Counties ($M)

ECO

NO

MIC

Future Freight Shifts

19

A Growing Port and Regional Shifts will change Future Freight

Port of Virginia Containers 2005-2013

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These factors will influence both regional and modal freight shifts in Virginia

% Total Trade between VA and Top Trading Partners accounted for by Inbound Coal

ECO

NO

MIC

Modal Shifts in Freight

SOURCE: FAF3

US & VA Tonnage Growth by Mode 2012 to 2040

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Virginia is expected to have significant rail freight increases

ECO

NO

MIC

Tourism

21

In 2012, Virginia Tourism:

Generated $21.2 billion in visitor spending

Supported 210,000 jobs Contributed to $4.7 billion in payroll –

3% of Virginia’s total payroll

Source: U.S. Travel Association for the Virginia Tourism Corporation (2012)

49% OF BATH COUNTY PAYROLL

40% OF WILLIAMSBURG PAYROLL

38% OF NELSON COUNTY PAYROLL

Tourism accounts for : WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Transportation plays a critical role in tourism, especially in rural and historic areas that depend on tourism for economic growth

ECO

NO

MIC

Agriculture

22

ECO

NO

MIC

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

49,000

51,000

53,000

55,000

57,000

59,000

61,000

63,000

65,000

67,000

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

La

nd

are

a (

tho

usa

nd

s o

f a

cre

s)

Em

plo

ym

en

t Employment

Land Area

VALUE OF SALES BY COMMODITY GROUP ($1,000) ($1,000s) U.S. Rank

1 Poultry and eggs 1,161,564 14

2 Cattle and calves 707,976 23

3 Grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas 633,652 29

4 Milk from cows 347,204 22

5 Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture and sod 251,871 18

6 Other crops and hay 139,830 32

7 Tobacco 100,901 4

8 Vegetables, melons, potatoes and sweet potatoes 92,323 25

9 Cotton and cottonseed 67,875 14

10 Hogs and pigs 67,702 21

Virginia Farm Employment and Land Area Cash Receipts by Commodity in Virginia, 2011

Sales Value & Comparative Advantage Within the US, 2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1997 2002 2007 2012

Farms

Acres

Declining Tobacco Industry, 1997-2012

23

Rural Employment Change

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? While holding steady overall, rural employment will grow in healthcare & social services

ECO

NO

MIC

24

TECHNOLOGICAL

Technological Trends

• Shared-Use Mobility

• Congested commutes

• Limited/expensive parking

• Declining car ownership

• App Driven

• Types

• Ridesharing

• Car-Sharing

• Bike-Sharing

• Ride-Matching

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Technology has made it easier than ever for travelers to access and acquire transportation services

25

TEC

HN

OLO

GIC

AL

Technological Trends

• Bike-sharing in U.S. (as of July 2013)

26

56 CITIES

with IT-based

systems

2 UNIVERSITIES

20,100 BIKES

2,000 STATIONS

Source: Transportation Sustainability Research Center, UC Berkeley, “Introduction to Shared-Use Mobility: Definitions, trends, and understanding” presentation (Shaheen, June 2014)

TEC

HN

OLO

GIC

AL

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Biking can replace trips of all modes, but it can also make non-auto trips more feasible for the ‘last mile’

Technological Trends

• Carsharing in U.S. (as of July 2013)

27

Source: Transportation Sustainability Research Center, UC Berkeley, “Introduction to Shared-Use Mobility: Definitions, trends, and understanding” presentation (Shaheen, June 2014)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Me

mb

ers

Carsharing Membership in U.S.

(2002-2013)

24 OPERATORS

Zip-Car in VA

TEC

HN

OLO

GIC

AL

Technological Trends

• Smart Infrastructure

• Test bed on I-66, I-495 (Fairfax)

• Virginia Smart Road by VTTI and VDOT

• Wireless vehicle communication

• Dynamic paint, anti-icing

• Wireless electric-charging

• Innovations in roadway material

28

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Innovations may lead to fuel economy, safety, congestion reduction

Photo: Solar Roadways

TEC

HN

OLO

GIC

AL

29

ENVIRONMENTAL

Climate Change

• Coastal Virginia – 2nd most vulnerable region in U.S.

• Degradation of ecosystems

• Low-elevation

• Rates of sea-level rise greater than average

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? VA Roads, bridges and other structures are vulnerable to shoreline erosion, increasing storm intensity, increasing global temperatures and rising ocean levels. Source: USGS, Coastal Vulnerability Index

Map

30

ENV

IRO

NM

ENTA

L

31

Climate Change

Source: “The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure,” U.S. DOT, 2007-2008

ENV

IRO

NM

ENTA

L

Climate Change – Transportation Infrastructure

• Increase in very hot days/heat waves impacts

• Thermal expansion – bridges and pavements

• Rail track deformations

• Lift-off limits at hot weather airports

• Limitations on hours of construction

Source: 2008 Virginia Governor’s Commission on Climate Change, “The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure” presentation (Transportation Research Board)

32 Ph

oto

: Jo

e M

aho

ney

, Un

iver

sity

of

Was

hin

gto

n

ENV

IRO

NM

ENTA

L

33

SYNTHESIS

How can we predict travel?

34

National Vehicle Miles Traveled (in Millions): Actual versus Projections

SYN

THES

IS

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Observations about past behavior are not necessarily the best assumptions with which to forecast the future

Travel Behavior is Changing

35

Virginia Population Increasing while Vehicle Miles Traveled has Declined

Aside from Recent Uptick, Virginia VMT Mirrors National Trends

SYN

THES

IS

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? After a turning point, such as decline in VMT, forecasting becomes more challenging

Travel Behavior is Changing

36

SYN

THES

IS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Carpooled

Worked from Home

Public Transportation

Walk

Bicycle, Motorcycle,Taxi

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Percent Change in Mode in Virginia (2005-2012)

Trips by Mode in Virginia (2012)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Future transportation plans must recognize changing preferences of commuters and travelers

Payroll & Location

37

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Supporting the transportation needs of significant payroll-generating counties is important to economic growth

LOCATION

TOP

INDUSTRIES

BY PAYROLL

Counties that are Expected to Rank in the Top Five in One or More of the Top Industries by Payroll (2040)

SYN

THES

IS

38

= approximately 1,000 people/square mile

Payroll & Density

Population Density: Counties with Top Industries by Payroll (2040)

POPULATION

DENSITY

COUNTIES

WITH TOP

INDUSTRIES

BY PAYROLL

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Key economic sectors locate in higher-density jurisdictions

SYN

THES

IS

39

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

Millenials may drive the higher wage-based knowledge and information economy in the future

Counties with Top Industries by Payroll in 2040

Highest Population of Millenials in 2040

Millenials & High Wage Areas

MILLENIALS

COUNTIES

WITH TOP

INDUSTRIES

BY PAYROLL

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Millenials may drive the higher wage-based knowledge and information economy in the future

SYN

THES

IS

40 *On average (weighted by population), DVMT in the counties with top industries by payroll is 8% less (2.2 miles less) than DVMT statewide

Location & Travel

Travel Times & Per Capita Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled for Counties with Top Industries by Payroll. VDOT (2012), ACS (2012)

*On average (weighted by workers), travel times are 4% longer in the counties with top industries by payroll (roughly 80 seconds longer) than the statewide average. However, they are 15 minutes less than statewide average when Prince William County is excluded.

TRAVEL

TIME/ VMT

LOCATION

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? For Millenials: there was a 15% decline when comparing use of their car as today’s primary form of transportation (86%) versus in the future (71%). Source: APA Poll, 2014.

SYN

THES

IS

41

82.9% of Henrico County workers get to work in SOVs

15.0% of Prince William County workers carpool

25.2% of Arlington workers get to work using public transp.

4.4% of Richmond workers walk to work

4.0% of Richmond workers motorbike/bike to work

8.3% of Loudon County workers telecommute

Mode & Counties with Top Industries by Payroll

% Workers Taking Transit / % Workers Working from Home (2012)

Key Mode Share Stats for Counties with Top Industries by Payroll COUNTIES

WITH TOP

INDUSTRIES

BY PAYROLL

MODE

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? We need to understand the travel preferences of the high-payroll-industry workers to support future economic needs

SYN

THES

IS

Commuting and Density

42

• According to the US Census, the denser the population, the more likely commuters are to:

• Walk and bike (slightly more likely)

• Take bus/rail (significantly more likely)

• The less dense the population, the more likely commuters are to:

• Drive alone (slightly more likely)

• Drive with others (slightly more likely)

• Work at home (slightly more likely)

COUNTIES

WITH TOP

INDUSTRIES

BY PAYROLL

MODE

SYN

THES

IS

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Differences in mode choice occur in higher-density areas – this provides insight into the needs of the future workforce

43

Transportation & Health Active Commuting and Obesity Rates by Country (Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Walking, biking and transit commuting are linked to health benefits

Public Transit and Physical Activity (Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation)

MODE

CHOICE

HEALTH

SYN

THES

IS

44

Livable Communities

SYN

THES

IS

SOCIAL

LIFESTYLE

WOULD PREFER TO LIVE SOMEDAY IN A WALKABLE COMMUNITY, WHETHER AN URBAN, SUBURBAN, OR SMALL TOWN LOCATION.

56% OF MILLENIALS

46% ACTIVE BOOMERS

Only 8% of Millenials and

7% of Active Boomers prefer living if they can afford it in a suburb that requires driving to most places.

Source: “Investing in Place.” American Planning Association (APA), 2014.

DISCUSSION 45

46

How Trends fit in the Process

DIS

CU

SSIO

N

What do you say?

• Are there other trends that may shape transportation outcomes in the future?

• What trends do you think will have the biggest impacts on transportation in Virginia’s future, and how?

47

DIS

CU

SSIO

N

Your Input

WHAT DO YOU SAY?

What’s Missing? What’s Significant?

What’s Missing? What’s Significant?

What’s Missing? What’s Significant?

What’s Missing? What’s Significant?

What’s Missing? What’s Significant?

DEMOGRAPHIC / SOCIAL

ECONOMIC

TECHNOLOGICAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

A

B SYNTHESIS

DIS

CU

SSIO

N

WORKSHOP 49

Discussion Questions

1. What does this goal mean to you/your agency?

2. What are the most important ways to accomplish this goal from your agency perspective and in light of the future trends we just discussed?

50

Safety & Security

51

System Maintenance & Preservation

52

Mobility, Connectivity and Accessibility

53

Environmental Stewardship

54

Economic Vitality

55

Coordination of Transportation & Land Use

56

Program Delivery

57