7/29/2019 Virginia Gov Race Polling Memo

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POLLING MEMO

From: Geoff Garin, Hart Research

Date: September 10, 2013

Re: State of the Virginia Governor’s Race 

With less than two months until Election Day, recent public polls show Democrat 

Terry McAuliffe pulling ahead of Republican Ken Cuccinelli in a tightly contested

race for the Virginia governor’s mansion.

Polling Data

Poll Date McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R) Spread

Rasmussen 9/3 - 9/4 45 38 McAuliffe +7

Quinnipiac 8/14 - 8/19 48 42 McAuliffe +6

Quinnipiac 7/11 - 7/15 43 39 McAuliffe +4

Because the Virginia governor’s race takes place a year after the Presidential

election, turnout is substantially lower compared to Presidential years. In 2008, 75

percent of registered voters cast a ballot in an historic election featuring the first 

African-American nominee in U.S. history. The following year, turnout dropped to

40 percent of registered voters and voters sent Republican Bob McDonnell to the

governor’s mansion. In each of the last nine Virginia governor’s races, votersrejected the party of the President elected the year before.

In order to avoid the fate of past Democratic gubernatorial nominees in similar

circumstances, McAuliffe must do each of the following:

  Turn out strong Democratic voters who typically vote in the off-year election

  Expand the electorate by turning out a portion of the coalition that voted for

President Obama in 2012

  Win over moderate voters who do not align fully with either major party

Republicans have shown that they are willing to commit significant resources to win

this race. The Republican Governors Association alone has already spent more than

$7 million on Cuccinelli’s behalf, a number that is sure to increase.

Nevertheless, recent polling shows McAuliffe maintaining a small but significant lead, while voters harbor serious concerns about a Cuccinelli candicacy. According

to Quinnipiac, only 35 percent of likely voters viewed Cuccinelli favorably, while 41

percent viewed him unfavorably and 22 percent were unsure.

The momentum is clearly in McAuliffe’s favor in this close race, with victory

predicated on the Democrat’s ability to communicate his message to undecided

voters and execute a strong voter turnout effort in the final two months.