virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

30
Second Quarter 2007 August 8, 2007

description

 

Transcript of virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

Page 1: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

Second Quarter 2007August 8, 2007

Page 2: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

2

Forward-looking statements“Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Various statements contained in this document constitute “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words like “believe,” “anticipate,” “should,” “intend,” “plan,” “will,” “expects,” “estimates,”“projects,” “positioned,” “strategy,” and similar expressions identify these forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements or industry results to be materially different from those contemplated, projected, forecasted, estimated or budgeted, whether expressed or implied, by these forward-looking statements. These factors, among others, include: (1) the ability to compete with a range of other communications and content providers; (2) the ability to manage customer churn; (3) the effect of technological changes on our businesses; (4) the continued right to use the Virgin name and logo; (5) the ability to maintain and upgrade our networks in a cost-effective and timely manner; (6) possible losses in revenues due to systems failures; (7) the ability to provide attractive programming at a reasonable cost; (8) the reliance on single-source suppliers for some equipment, software and services and third party distributors of our mobile services; (9) the functionality or market acceptance of new products that we may introduce; (10) the ability to obtain and retain expected synergies from the merger of our legacy NTL and Telewest businesses and the acquisition of Virgin Mobile; (11) the rates of success in executing, managing and integrating key acquisitions, including the merger with Telewest and the acquisition of Virgin Mobile; (12) the ability to achieve business plans for the combined company; (13) the ability to fund debt service obligations through operating cash flow; (14) the ability to obtain additional financing in the future and react to competitive and technological changes; (15) the ability to comply with restrictive covenants in our indebtedness agreements; and (16) the extent to which our future earnings will be sufficient to cover our fixed charges.

These and other factors are discussed in more detail under “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in Virgin Media’s Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 1, 2007. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.

Page 3: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

3

Jim Mooney, Chairman

3

Page 4: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

4

Summary

• Loss of Sky basics channels: churn substantially contained to Q2

• Better than expected TV performance – positive net adds

• Market transforming content initiatives (sports channels, Virgin 1)

• Super fast broadband speeds – rollout of 20Mbs

• Improving telephony trends

• Mobile contract strength continues

• Customers taking more products than ever before

• Strong cashflow outlook

4

Page 5: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

5

RGU net adds (000s)

TV Mobile contractBroadbandMonthly progression

Home telephony

71

54 53

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

7888

46

18

5

10

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

3936

2

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

(33)

(11)

(3)

April May June

`

(64) (63) (57)

1021

1

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

0 00 0

Off-netOn-net/mobile

• All RGU quarterly net adds affected by short term Sky basics impact • Excellent take up of new products (VOD, DVR) drives connections and reduces churn• Popularity of mobile contract cross sell continues; but still 97% of cable base to target • Home phone turnaround during quarter

– Mobile product mitigates fixed to mobile substitution• We expect much stronger RGU net adds in the second half

RGUs include offnet5

Page 6: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

6

Cable customer adds and disconnects

6

5765

70

Apr May June

• Gross adds improved throughout quarter• Disconnects impacted by Sky basics churn

– Underlying monthly churn* in Q2 at 1.6% versus reported churn of 1.8%• We expect positive customer net adds in the second half

* excluding estimated Sky basics disconnects

214 184

(251) (231) (262)

192

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2 07

Gross customer adds, 000sGross customer adds/disconnects (on-net), 000s

Page 7: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

7

Bundles drive growth

• Triple / quad play proving to be excellent acquisition and retention tools

– 3 for £30 remains the most attractive cable acquisition bundle

– Strong demand for mobile contract cross-sells

– Customers taking 3+ products display significantly lower levels of churn

- Average monthly triple play churn was just 0.9% in Q27

Triple play cable penetration Mobile contract cross-sell

40

0

5247

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

37%39%

45%43%

41%

Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2 07

Page 8: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

8

ARPU

8

• ARPU affected by– Retention activity exacerbated due to Sky

basics issue– Proactive realignment of pricing in a

competitive market– Telephony usage decline

• We expect ARPU to stabilize and then return to growth in the second half

Cable monthly ARPU

£42.21 £42.48 £42.82 £42.75£42.16

Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2 07

Page 9: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

9

Video on demand

Monthly users (m) Average views per user

Reach Average views per user

0.80.9

1.11.2

1.4

Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07

8 8 9

11

14

Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07

Monthly views (m)

44%

70%

Virgin Media Comcast*

27

14

Virgin Media Comcast*

6.7 7.69.2

13.8

18.7

Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07

Churn rate of VOD users is less than half that of non-

VOD users

* Virgin Media shows Q2 monthly average; Comcast data sourced from publicly available data9

Page 10: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

10

VOD popularity in context

In active users homes, VOD delivered a viewing share of 3.9% in Q2 - significantly ahead of all non-

terrestrial channels

Notes: Linear channel viewing includes +1 channels; excludes terrestrial channels (BBC1, BBC2, ITV1, channel 4 and Five)Source: Virgin Media estimates from BARB data and Company information

Share of viewing in Pay TV homes vs. Virgin Media VOD service in cable homes3.9%

2.8%

2.0%1.8%

1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

1.2%1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

VO

D (a

ctiv

e us

ers)

Sky

Spo

rts 1

ITV

2

UK

TV G

old

VO

D (e

nabl

edba

se)

E4

Sky

One

Livi

ng

Cbe

ebie

s

BB

C3

Dis

ney

Cha

nnel

ITV

3

UK

TV D

ram

a

Sky

Spo

rts 2

Nic

kelo

deon

Hal

lmar

k

Film

4

UK

TV G

2

Sci

-Fi

BB

C N

ews

24

On-demand usage VMtv and UKTV channels Other channels

Page 11: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

11

Further VOD enhancements

• Expect to be first TV platform to feature BBC iPlayer

• Heavily marketed by the BBC

• Expanding BBC content from c.50 hours to c.500 hours

11

Page 12: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

12

V+ a key growth driver

• Best DVR on the market; 3 tuners, c.80 hours storage, HD compatible

• 46% increase in quarter; 5.4% penetration – an excellent growth opportunity

• 25% of DVR adds in June were customers new to Virgin Media

• Improves ARPU; c.80% also have XL TV

• Reduces churn12

V+ customers (000s)

Source: What Home Cinemas, August 2007 What HDTV, July/August 2007

2941

54

114

167

Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07

Page 13: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

13

Steve Burch, CEO

13

Page 14: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

14

TV proposition boosted by compelling sports content

14

• Setanta Sports included in basic TV package for new and existing XL customers– Six Setanta sports channels

• 46 FA Premier League games (33% of all televised live games)

• 60 Live Scottish Premier League matches (100% of televised live games)

• 25 FA Cup games from 2008 (62% of televised live games – ITV to show rest)

• 3 England Internationals (plus all of U21 / B Internationals)

• Other sports include US PGA Tour, horse racing, rugby, motor racing

– Available at £8 to all other TV customers (compared to £9.99 on Sky and Freeview)

• Announced collaboration with Setanta to launch a sports news channel– To be included in all TV packages at no additional cost

Page 15: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

15

The best place to watch football

46 Premier League games Virgin XL

Sky1

6 mixes

Basic TV package £20.50 £21

Setanta Sports Included £10

Total cost £20.50 £31

138 Premier League games Virgin XL

Sky1

6 mixes

Basic TV package £20.50 £21

Setanta Sports Included £10

Sky Sports £18 £17

Total cost £38.50 £48

1 Source: Sky price advertised in the Times on 17 July 200715

Page 16: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

16

Sports to drive portal growth

16

• Exclusive FA Premier League and Football League Internet clips

– Every goal from every game available for one week after the match

• Coverage of all major sports

• Available free to anyone, regardless of existing TV platform

– Cross promotion of entire product range

– Highlights football credentials

• Already top 10 site with >80m monthly visits1

– Significant advertising and search revenue opportunity

1Source: Comscore, H1

Page 17: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

17

VMtv: content strengthens platform

• Viewing share and commercial impacts show strong growth

– Q2 viewing share up 15%YoY

– Equivalent commercial impacts up 24% YTD

– Living was second most watched basic pay-TV channel in June, behind UKTV Gold, ahead of Sky One1

– Sky One share declined on DTH platform: Q2 2007: -7% QoQ, -15% YoY

• Virgin 1 rebrand in Autumn 2007

– Available free on all platforms (Virgin Media, Sky, Freeview)

– Improved programming

– Cross-promote cable platform, emphasis on VODe.g. “Next episode available on-demand on Virgin Media”

2.112.20

2.29

Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007

1. UKTV Gold 1.73%

2. Living 1.53%

3. Sky One 1.32%

VMtv portfolio SOV1

Basic pay-TV channels SOV1 June 2007

1 SOV% = share of viewing, based on all platforms, source: BARB17

Page 18: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

18

20Mbs broadband launched in Q2

Page 19: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

19

The best broadband

191 Source: Virgin Media estimates, Analysys, Point Topic (quoted by Broadband Stakeholder Group) 2 Customers rating as Excellent/Good less those rating as

Poor/unsatisfactory, CIAO/Mintel July 2007

66 63

52

3933

24

VirginMedia

Sky BT Orange Tiscali TalkTalk

• “If you were to design a brand from scratch then Virgin Media’s profile is pretty much what you would aim for.

• The biggest, fastest, most innovative, most distinctive, most experienced and best value broadband brand.

• Top for all the positives such as being caring, cool, accessible, supportive and vibrant…

• … whilst not registering on the negatives such as being confusing, overrated and tiring.”

Mintel, July 2007

Net satisfaction score2 Brand qualities

The truth about broadbandAccess speeds1

% of homes able to receive1

>50Mbs

20Mbs

7Mbs

100%

30%

10% 20Mbs with ADSL 2+

8Mbs with ADSL 2+

20Mbs with cable (on-net)

Average max ADSL speed

Average max ADSL 2+ speed

Current Virgin Media XL

Cable using DOCSIS 3.0

4.5Mbs

Page 20: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

20

Successful brand launch

Market Leading Brand Image2Rebrand success

Spontaneous awareness 6 months post launch1:

Feb

Bra

nd th

at m

ost “

chan

ges

the

mar

ket”

52%

21%

17%Mar Apr May Jun

4 week rolling basis

10%

20 1 Source: Consumer Intelligence Ltd 2Consumer Intelligence National Survey, data to 17 June 2007

Page 21: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

21

Mobile

• Experiencing strong demand in early stages of Mobile contract cross-sell

• Contract mix improving – now represents 7% of total base (Q2 2006: 2%*)

• Higher ARPU driven by better contract mix and higher prepay ARPU

*Q2-06 as reported by Virgin Mobile prior to acquisition

£10.59£10.28

£10.70

£10.07

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

Contract mobile net adds (000s)* Mobile blended monthly ARPU

25

4

5354

71

Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

21

Page 22: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

22

Business services

Improving data revenue mixImproving retail revenue mix

Q1-07 Q2 07Retail Wholesale

£163m £156m

31.2% 30.0%

68.8% 70.0%

Q1-07 Q2 07Data Voice

£163m £156m

60.7% 60.9%

39.3% 39.1%

• Retail and data mix continue to increase as a proportion of total revenue• Revenue affected by wholesale decline due to Q1 completion of WTN build for major

customer• Majority of revenue decline from lower margin products

22

Page 23: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

23

Jacques Kerrest, CFO

23

Page 24: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

24

OCF Growth

Q1-07 Q2-07 £m £m

Cable 267 283 Marketing cost reductions re brand launch

Mobile 27 33 Higher prepay ARPU and contract growth

Content 12 - No one-off accrual release and higherprogramming costs

Total OCF 306 315

Note: OCF is operating income before depreciation, amortization and other charges and is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendices for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP equivalents

Page 25: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

25

Cost reductions phase 1: synergiesalmost achieved

OCF margin %

OCF margin expansion to accelerate as synergy benefits delivered

28.9% 29.9%31.7%

Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07

• OCF expected to increase in second half of year, mainly through continued cost reductions arising from merger and integration synergies

– Headcount reductions: 5,200 heads to date, targeting 6,000 by end 2007– ERP integration: single system for Finance, HR and Supply Chain– Billing system migration: c.80% of customers on ICOMs today– Procurement savings

Note: OCF margin% is defined as OCF divided by revenue25

Page 26: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

26

Cost reductions phase 2: opexre-engineering and restructuring

Major initiatives underway for significant restructuring of cost base

• Sales Channels transformation

• Regionalization of Installs, Field Service and Network Operations

• Additional outsourcing

• Restructure network costs

• Mobile integration

• Develop and deploy self-service

• Reduce faults through Best of Breed program

Further significant cost reductions in 2008

26

Page 27: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

27

Q2-07 Financial Results AppendicesAugust 8, 2007

27

Page 28: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

28

Net debt as at 30 June 2007

£m Rate

Senior Credit Facility A 2,475 L+1.75%Senior Credit Facility B 2,195 L+2.13%Senior Credit Facility C 300 L+2.75%Senior Notes due 2014 738 9.82% 4

Senior Notes due 2016 274 8.54% 4

Capital Leases / Other 80

Long Term Debt1 6,063

Cash 277

Net Debt2 5,786

Net Debt / Annualized OCF3 4.6x

Weighted average cost of debt is 8.0%4

1 Net of current portion2 Net Debt is a non-GAAP financial measure. See above for the reconciliation of net debt to long-term debt (net of current portion)3 Annualized OCF is Q2-07 OCF multiplied by four4 Weighted average after taking swaps into account

28

Page 29: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

29

Non-GAAP measures

Virgin Media uses non-GAAP financial measures with a view to providing investors with a better understanding of the operating results and underlying trends to measure past and future performance and liquidity.

Virgin Media evaluates operating performance based on several non-GAAP measures, including (i) operating income before depreciation, amortization and other charges (OCF), (ii) OCF margin, and (iii) net debt, as we believe these are important measures of the operational strength of our business and our liquidity. Since these measures are not calculated in accordance with GAAP, they should not be considered as a substitute for operating income (loss), operating income (loss) margin and long-term debt (net of current portion), respectively.

Pro Forma Operating Statistics

Unless otherwise indicated, all historical references to operational statistics are on a pro forma basis assuming the acquisition of Virgin Mobile occurred on January 1, 2006. Unless otherwise indicated, mobile customer information prior to acquisition has been taken, without adjustment, from Virgin Mobile’s historical information.

Page 30: virgin media.Q2-07_Analyst_presentation

30

Non-GAAP reconciliation

Reconciliation of operating income before depreciation, amortization and other charges (OCF) to GAAP operating income (loss)

(in £ millions) (unaudited) Three months endedJun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31,

2007 2007 2006

Operating income before depreciation,amortization and other charges (OCF) 315.3 305.7 313.0

Reconciling items Depreciation and amortization (309.2) (309.4) (288.2) Other charges (3.1) (11.6) (15.6) Operating income (loss) 3.0 (15.3) 9.2

OCF as a percentage of revenue (OCF margin) 31.7% 29.9% 28.9%

Operating income (loss) as a percentage of revenue 0.3% -1.5% 0.9%

30