Dynamics of Information Virality

Karine Nahon, Jeff Hemsley and Shawn Walker

karineb@uw.eduhttp://eKarine.orghttp://twitter.com/karineb

jhemsley@uw.edustw3@uw.edu

Presentation to Google – March 2011

retroV - Who Are We?http://retrov.org

Karine NahonJeff HemsleyShawn WalkerMuzammil Hussain

Project Scope

1. Understand the dynamics of information distribution on networks with respect to new media channels, like blogs and videos.

2. Understand the power relationships between the stakeholder groups and their influence in information distribution

What does it mean viral?“network-enhanced word of mouth” (Darper, 1977)

“a communication and distribution concept that relies on customers to transmit digital products” (Helm, 2000)

“a type of marketing that infects its customers with an advertising message, which passes from one customer to the next like a rampant flue virus” (Montgomery, 2001)

Viral Videos and Political Blogs

What makes Information Viral?

• Top-down Approach– Virality is a process governed by reliance on powerful

gatekeeping nodes or elite – The tipping point (Gladwell, 2002)– Opinion leaders (Katz and Lazarsfeld, 1955)

• Bottom-up Approach– Gatekeepers play an important but not crucial role

(Herring, 2005)– Situational factors determine the virality. Tail nodes and

hubs are the same. (Watts and Dodds, 2007)

Political Blogs - Literature

Cass Sunstein’s camp• Homophily (Adamic and Glance, 2004; Hargittai et al.,

2008; Lawrence, 2010)

• Fragmentation (Sunstein, 2001, 2008)

• Polarization (Sunstein, 2001, 2008; Hindman, 2008)

• Power law (Farrell and Drezner, 2008; Karpf, 2008)

Political Blogs - Literature

Yochai Benkler’s camp• More Choices• Participation • Deliberation

(Benkler and Shaw, 2010; Woodly, 2008)

Gaps in the Literature

• Focusing on top-blogs only (Hargittai et al., in our dataset 24% of videos were not linked by top-blogs, and top-blogs linked to only 13% of the viral videos)

• Static linking models at one point of time

• Linking: blogs to blogs • Very rare to see mixed methods

(qualitative and quantitative)

The Research Questions• What are the relationships between different

types of blogs and political viral information diffusion?

• What is the difference between elite blogs and tail blogs in that process?

• Are there other types of blogs worth our attention as scholars?

• What would a life cycle that represents virality in this context looks like?

Data, Data… and Data• Five datasets

– Viral videos list (3 categories: political, election and general resulted in 120 videos)

– Viral video daily-view data– Blogs linking to viral videos– Traffic data for the blogs– Identifying four types of blogs

• Blogs (n=9,765), Posts (13,173), Videos (n=120) Between March 2007-June 2009

Four types of blogs• Elite Blogs

•Huffington Post & Daily Kos

• Top-political Blogs•Elite political blogs

• Top-general Blogs•Blogs with more than 250,000 daily unique views

• Tail Blogs•Remaining blogs

• 4 blog categories

Methodology - Multiple RegressionVIEWS = ELITE + TOP-POLITICAL + TOP-GENERAL + TAIL + CONTOLS +ε

VIEWS = ELITE_t + ELITE_t1 + TOP-POLITICAL_t + TOP-POLITICAL_t1 + TOP_GENERAL_t + TOP_GENERAL_t1+ TAIL_t + TAIL_t1+ CONTOLS +ε

Since our primary goal is to present a life–cycle of blog-post timing in the political information diffusion process, each independent variable group contains two variables: 1. A count of links from blogs in that category to a given video in a given day. For

example, ELITE_t, would represent all the links from the elite blogs to a given viral video on a given day t.

2. A one day forward-lagged version of the link count variable to the views. This variable associates links from day t+1 (tomorrow) to view counts of day t (today). For example, ELITE_t1, would represent all the links from the elite blogs on day t+1 to view counts for a given viral video on day t.

Methodology - Multiple Regression

• If [Variable]t is positive, it means that blogs of this type post links to a video on the day of the peak.

• If [Variable]t is negative, it means that blogs of this type post during the decline, the link count is increasing while daily views is decreasing.

• If [Variable]t1 is positive, it means that blogs of this type post on the day after the peak.

Variables Coefficient Est.ELITE 0.082*ELITE_t1 0.003TOP-POLITICAL 0.033TOP-POLITICAL _t1 0.142***TOP-GENERAL 0.067*TOP-GENERAL_t1 0.114***TAIL -0.004*TAIL_t1 0.053***CONTROL VAR: VIEWS_t1 0.912***CONTROL VAR: SUM_UNIQUE_VISITORS

0.010***

CONTROL VAR: VIDEO_IDX X<0.05

Significance codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05Model Performance Coefficient Est.

R-Squared 0.965F-Statistics 7831 (74 & 21099 df ,

p-value: < 2.2e-16)

The Life Cycle of Virality

• Blogs are not monolithic– Elite blogs do not represent

blogs– Political information spread via

general channels

• Transient elites are constituted by the masses

Transient elites are constituted by the mass

Gated Act

(individual

level)

Collective Patterns

are created

Gatekeepers/Transient Elites are created

Information Control is

exercised by gatekeepers

(Nahon, 2011)

Homophily or Cross-Deliberation?

The Underlying Concern

Determining the conditions that are sufficient for creating, or maintaining, stable democratic practices and examining what exists today

Research Questions:• Do political blogs of the same political inclination tend to

link to the same content? If they do, to what extent? Additionally, in cases where cross-ideological linking occur, what is the nature of that linking?

• Do political blogs follow a bandwagon effect, that is, is there a positive relationship between the likelihood of blogs linking to content and the popularity of that content?

• Are blogs with a higher number of comments more likely to refer to viral videos?

Blog Co-Linking

Matrix (BLM)

Comments Matrix (CM)

Bandwagon Matrix (BM)

Political Leaning

Matrix (PM)= + +

• Network Regression• Y: Blog Co-linking Matrix• X’s: Attributes of blogs and edges

The Model

Video Coding

variable values definition Cohen Kappa’s

CREATOR

0=user generated, 1=campaign created, 2=media created, 3=unknown

The type of producer of the video 0.791

FOR_IND 0=No, 1=yes The video is focused on glorifying, or clearly in favor of a particular person 0.726

ABT_OBAMA 0=No, 1=yes The focus of the video was Obama. 0.777

CELEB 0=No, 1=yes A celebrity participates in the video in a major manner, for example, when Matt Damon was interviewed about Sarah Palin. 0.671

VIDEO_STANCE0=unidentified, unknown1=progressive, 2=conservative,

Political Identification of the content and message of the video. 0.868

ENT_MUSIC 0=No, 1=yes Music is a major component of the video 0.743ENT_HUM 0=No, 1=yes Humour is a major component of the video 0.714

REAL-EVENTS 0=No, 1=yes Real events that are captured without intervening in content. A raw feed or speech. 0.744

INTERVIEW 0=No, 1=yes Interview of candidates, celebrities or other people about the election or candidates. 0.767

AGAINST_IND 0=No, 1=yes The video is focused against a particular individual. For example, an attack ad. 0.746

AGAINST_REP 0=No, 1=yes The general message is against the republican platform/position or party as opposed to a specific person. 0.735

AGAINST_DEM 0=No, 1=yes The general message is against the progressive platform/position or party as opposed to a specific person. 0.849

NEWS 0=No, 1=yes The video is based on, or entirely from, captures of news TV station feeds. 0.796

Blog Post Coding

variable values definition Cohen Kappa’s

POST_ATTITUED0=unidentified, 1=neutral, 2=negative 3-positive

The blog post’s attitude towards the video itself (not the message of the video). For example, an entertaining video may be liked even if the message is oppositional.

0.802

POST_STANCE0=unidentified, 1=neutral, 2=against 3-for

The blog post’s attitude towards the message of the video. 0.835

Some general statistics:VIDEOS (linked from blogs) Value All % of linked Total Videos 83 100% Total Videos that Liberals linked to 60 72% 95%Total Videos that Conservative linked to 18 22% 29%Videos Receiving no links 20 24% n/aCoded Video Stance Video message is liberal 46 55% 73%Video message is conservative 13 16% 21%Video message is unknown 4 5% 6%BLOGS (linking to videos) Value All % of L-C*Total Blogs 50 100% 25Liberal Blogs 18 36% 72%Conservative Blogs 10 20% 40%Blogs that did not linked to videos 22 44% n/aPOSTS of BLOGS (LINKS to Videos) Value All % of L-C*Total links to videos 302 100% n/aLinks from Liberal Blogs 251 83% n/aLinks from Conservative Blogs 51 17% n/a

*L-C refers to the conservative or liberal top blogs

FindingsVariable CoefficientIntercept 0.21099

Political Leaning 0.63425**Bandwagon Effect 0.00756***

Comments -0.01777

Model Performance

Residual standard error 3.475

R-squared 0.7867F-statistic 1502, df=3,1221, p-value>.001

* sig < .05, ** sig < .01, *** sig < .001

Types of Homophily and cross linking

• Type 1 – Videos level – when a video of a certain political inclination receives links from a blog of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination.

• Type 2 – Blogs level – when two blogs of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination link to the same video.

• Type 3 – Posts level – when a blog post of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination links to a video.

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 1

Generally: 76% Homophily, 23% Cross-linkingHomophily: 75% liberals, 17% conservativesCross-linking: 17% liberals, 46% conservatives

(Type-1 - Videos level – when a video of a certain political inclination receives links from a blog of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination. )

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 1

Cross-linking:- Music and humour- About Obama - Negative ads

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 2

Type 2 – Blogs level – when two blogs of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination link to the same video.

DailyKos

Huffington Post

Talking Points Memo

Firedoglake

Crooks And Liars

Washington Monthly

Pandagon

America Blog

Five Thirty Eight

Digby

Feministing

Juan Cole

Open Left

Talk LeftShakespeares Sister

Sadly, No!

MyDD

Ezra Klein

Hot Air

Gateway Pundit

Newsbusters

Powerline Blog

Ann Althouse

Jawa Report

Patterico's PontificationsIMAO

Red State

QandO

DailyKos

Huffington Post

Talking Points Memo

Firedoglake

Crooks And Liars

Washington Monthly

Pandagon

America Blog

Five Thirty Eight

Digby

Feministing

Juan Cole

Open LeftTalk Left

Shakespeares SisterSadly, No!

MyDD

Ezra Klein

Hot Air

Gateway Pundit

Newsbusters

Powerline Blog

Ann Althouse

Jawa Report

Patterico's Pontifications

IMAO

Red State

QandO

Generally: 17% Homophily, 82% Cross-linkingHomophily: 22% liberals, 10% conservativesCross-linking: 78% liberals, 90% conservatives

FindingsVariable CoefficientIntercept 0.21099

Political Leaning 0.63425**Bandwagon Effect 0.00756***

Comments -0.01777

Model Performance

Residual standard error 3.475

R-squared 0.7867F-statistic 1502, df=3,1221, p-value>.001

* sig < .05, ** sig < .01, *** sig < .001

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 2

Type 2 – Blogs level – when two blogs of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination link to the same video.

DailyKos

Huffington Post

Talking Points Memo

Firedoglake

Crooks And Liars

Washington Monthly

Pandagon

America Blog

Five Thirty Eight

DigbyFeministing

Juan Cole

Open Left

Talk Left

Shakespeares Sister

Sadly, No!

MyDD

Ezra Klein

Hot Air

Gateway Pundit

Newsbusters

Powerline Blog

Ann AlthouseJawa Report

Patterico's Pontifications

IMAO

Red State

QandO

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 3

Type 3 – Posts level – when a blog post of a similar (homophily) or dissimilar (cross-linking) inclination links to a video.

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Con Blog Links Lib Blog Links

Vid Msg Lib Vid Msg Con

Vid Msg Unk Views

Cross-linking: 62 posts (21% of blog posts) linking to 15 videos

Homophily and Cross-Linking: Type 3Video Message Frequency / Percent

Unknown

Unknown

%

Liberal

Liberal%

Conservative

Conservative%

Liberal Blog Post’s Attitude toward video

Unidentified 11 10% 30 27% 37 33%Neutral 0 0% 1 1% 0 0%

Negative 1 1% 0 0% 6 5%Positive 3 3% 23 21% 0 0%

Conservative Blog Post’s Attitude toward video

Unidentified 5 15% 11 33% 11 33%Neutral 0 0% 1 3% 0 0%

Negative 0 0% 2 6% 0 0%Positive 0 0% 3 9% 0 0%

Liberal Blog Post’s Stance toward video

Unidentified 8 7% 16 14% 7 6%Neutral 0 0% 1 1% 0 0%

Negative 1 1% 0 0% 36 32%Positive 6 5% 37 33% 0 0%

Conservative Blog Post’s Stance toward video

Unidentified 3 9% 6 18% 0 0%Neutral 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%

Negative 0 0% 9 27% 0 0%Positive 2 6% 2 6% 11 33%

• There is a bandwagon effect (however small)

• There is homophily• There is cross-linking, but it disguises

homophily

More at:http://eKarine.org or:

http://staff.washington.edu/jhemsley orhttp://retroV.org

The two articles can be found here:1. http://ekarine.org/wp-admin/pub/HomophilyCross-LinkingJCMC.pdf 2. http://ekarine.org/wp-admin/pub/FifteenMinutesOfFame.pdf