Epidemics & Viral EvolutionEpidemics & Viral Evolution

Daniel Sprockett

President

Kent State Freethinkers

www.MolecularFossils.com

Skepticamp Ohio

May 2, 2009

Is Ohio at risk?Is Ohio at risk?

Outline

What are viruses?How do viruses evolve?Are we at risk?

What are viruses?

Bacteria vs.Virus Structure & “Life” CycleAre Viruses Alive?

Bacterial Structure

Viral Structure

Viral Infection

Viral Infection - Human

Viruses can also infect:

Other Animals Plants Bacteria Archaea Even Viruses!

Are Viruses Alive?

David M. Hillis, Derrick Zwickl, and Robin Gutell, University of Texas.

Are Viruses Alive?

Outline

What are viruses?How do viruses evolve?Are we at risk?

Viral Evolution Genetic Diversification

High rates of reproduction (~15 mins) Gene Swapping & Recombination (Antigenic Shift)

Natural Selection Strong selection by immune system

Viral Evolution Marine Viruses

>50 Million viruses/ ml of sea water 1031 viruses in the ocean If the average virus is 10 nm, then

250 MILLION LIGHT YEARS of viruses!!

60% of earth oxygen is produced by marine microbes Viruses lyse ~ 20% every day!

Viral Evolution

How many viruses are there? 1030 viruses in the ocean If you consider a “new” virus to have

10% “new” genes Then there are 1011 new viruses being

evolved every second!

Outline

What are viruses?How do viruses evolve?Are we at risk?

State Confirmed Cases Deaths

Arizona 4

California 13

Colorado 2

Delaware 4

Illinois 3

Indiana 3

Kansas 2

Kentucky 1

Massachusetts 2

Michigan 2

Minnesota 1

Nebraska 1

Nevada 1

New Jersey 5

New York 50

Ohio 1

South Carolina 16

Texas 28 1

Virginia 2

Total (19) 141 cases 1 death

From CDC as of May 1st, 11am

Other Epidemics

Asian Flu - 1957 - 1958 Influenza A virus strain of subtype H2N2 1 – 1.5 million dead

Spanish Flu - 1918 Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1 40- 100 million dead

Bubonic Plague – 1340’s Yersinia pestis 200 million dead Killed 30%-60% of Europe’s Population

Swine Flu - 2009 Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1 101 dead 1.68 x 10-8 % of the population

How have things changed?

High levels of misinformation and low levels of education Massive congregations during draft rallies, church

revivals, and other events No antibiotics available to treat secondary infections No antiviral drugs (Tamiflu) No vaccines No steroid treatments or respirators to treat respiratory

infections

Are we at risk?

Furthermore, as the infection spreads around the world, the search for an antidote is desperately sought, but the very fact that the virus is seen as something to be opposed actually supports the Biblical view of this world. It is always good and right to oppose sickness, but in evolutionary terms, why don’t humans simply resign themselves to it and allow the strong to survive? The evolutionary point of view would say the virus has a ‘right’ to live, so 'good luck' to it!

From Ray Comfort:

Are we at risk?

Even worse, some people are actually trying to blame God for the pandemic, yet it was Man’s original sin which brought disease and sickness into a perfect world. We have no one but ourselves to blame. God offers a cure, but Man refuses it because it does not come on Man’s terms.

From Ray Comfort:

Are we at risk?

The fact that living things, and viruses can mutate is part of their design. Change within a species gives organisms the ability to adapt if the environment changes, but mutations almost never adds new information to the DNA, and most mutations are harmful, and they usually subtract information. The trend is down, not up, which absolutely contradicts Darwin.

From Ray Comfort:

Are we at risk?

Does hand washing really work?

Effect of washing hands with soap on diarrhoea risk in the community: a systematic review.

Curtis V, Cairncross S. (2003)

-handwashing could reduce diarrhea risk by 47%.

-potential number of diarrhea deaths that could be averted by handwashing at about a million (0.5 -1.4 million)

Via BadAstronomy and Ben Goldacre

The Swine Flu has human DNA!

Antigenic Shift

But it’s a PANDEMIC!

Epidemic – outbreak confined to multiple region

Pandemic – outbreak across multiple regions

The normal yearly flu is always a pandemic

Swine Flu: A Liberal Conspiracy

"I find it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out then under another Democrat president Jimmy Carter. And I'm not blaming this on President Obama, I just think it's an interesting coincidence."

Michele BachmannMinnesota (R)

Rational Advice

Symptoms of H1N1 flu closely resemble seasonal flu and include fever, weakness, coughing and lack of appetite. It is contagious. The best way to prevent H1N1 flu is to

continue to follow infection control steps including: Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or your elbow (not your hand) when you sneeze. Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth to prevent germs from spreading. Wash your hands often with soap and water and use hand sanitizers. Avoid being in close contact with those who are ill. If you are ill, please limit your exposure

to others by staying home from work or school and avoid visiting the hospital.

H1N1 flu can be successfully treated with medication. If you think you might have the flu, please see your primary care doctor. He or she can test you for the flu and will be

able to identify the strain of the flu you may have.

Don’t PANIC!

Questions?

Personal Blog www.MolecularFossils.com

Kent State Freethinkers www.freewebs.com/KentStateFreethinkers