Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa...
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Transcript of Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa...
![Page 1: Violence, Governance, Development SOAS/Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa Addis Ababa, 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062223/55189ee1550346b31f8b479e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Violence, Governance, Development
SOAS/Mo Ibrahim FoundationGovernance for Development in
AfricaAddis Ababa, 2012
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ANALYTICAL LINKS: GOVERNANCE & VIOLENCE
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Links between Governance & Violence
• Allocation of rights to violence• States as war-makers• Managing the violence problem: coalitions
and economic development• The perpetual and pervasive violence problem
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Links, continued…
• Violence as lack of governance?
• Violence as reflection of governance?
• Violence as source of improved governance?
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Rents, coalitions, violence
• Deterrent organizations, or credible threat• Generating rents so that violence reduces
value of privileges for elites• Or just have powerful organizations of force
that are subservient to law
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TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION
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Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM
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Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas
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Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006
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VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I
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Grievance
• Growth (5 years before onset)• Repression (elections, press freedom, etc)• Inequality (Gini coefficient)• Ethnicity (ELF)
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Greed
• Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP)
• Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population)
• Education (number of years average schooling)
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How to overcome constraints on collective action
• Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals• Coercion• Norms & ideology• Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local
and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy
• Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)
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Friendly Fire?
• Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables
• Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique
• Conclusions not justified by findings• Might be published in an IR journal but not in
a 3rd rate economics journal.
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POST-CONFLICT AID
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World Bank Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lending, 1980-98
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
year
US
$ m
illio
n
Africa post-conflict East Asia & Pacific post-conflictSuth Asia post-conflict Europe & Central Asia post-conflictMiddle East & North Africa post-conflict Latin America & Caribbean post-conflict
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From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper
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From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper
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Aid volatility coefficient
From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper
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Political His in KenyaFrances Stewart, “Kenya disturbances: note for discussion”, 2008
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Frances Stewart conclusions
• Socio-economic HIs favour Kikuyu, regionally and within (e.g. within Rift Valley vis-à-vis Kalenjin)
• Political ‘elite bargain’ reflected in inclusive cabinets…till 2005.
• Political power offers elite benefits; socio-economic HIs facilitate mobilisation.