Vietnam Coal Industry analysis and scenarios
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Transcript of Vietnam Coal Industry analysis and scenarios
Vietnam's coal industry and its roles in the
national energy security in the next 20 years,
which scenario would be taken?
Prepared by Viet Cuong & Hoang Anh
Presented by Le Viet Cuong
Hanoi, 14th November 2011
Photos: Internet source
Content
I. Introduction
II. Vietnam’s coal industry
II.1 Historical picture and current situation
II.2 Coal development plan
III. Vietnam’s power sector: scenarios’ simulation and analysisIII. Vietnam’s power sector: scenarios’ simulation and analysis
III.1 Existing scenarios on power development in Vietnam for the
next 20 years
III.2 LEAP model
III.3 Modelling framework
III.4. Results: Analysis, comparison and assessment
IV. Conclusions and recommendations
Introduction
�Vietnam currently is an energy exporter but it would face many
challenges to energy balance and energy security in the near future.
�Coal industry presently plays a key position in Vietnam’s energy
sector.
�Studies:
� This study firstly gives historical story, current picture and prospect � This study firstly gives historical story, current picture and prospect
of Vietnam's coal industry.
� The study investigates the roles of coal industry in Vietnam's
energy security with focus on power generation sector.
� The study proposes some solutions to the challenges the coal
industry would face.
Historical picture & current situation
� Vietnam’s coal industry was born in 1840 when the Minh Mang
King permitted mining activities in Dong Trieu district (Quang Ninh
province)
� Since 1995 to present coal-mining activities have transited from � Since 1995 to present coal-mining activities have transited from
open-cut to underground.
Historical picture & current situation
During the period 2001 to 2010, Vietnam’s coal production &
consumption has been increasing rapidly.Vietnam’s production, consumption and export from 2000 to 2010
Historical picture & current situation
No. Class / Region
Proven &
probable
reserve
Probable
reserve
Proven
reserve
The country 40 931 34 790 6 141
1 Anthracite and others 40 531 34 626 5 905
Quang Ninh coal basin 10 028 5 907 4 122
Vietnam’s coal proven and probable reserve Unit: million tonnes
Inland (Vinacomin-owned) 181 16 165
Local-managed mines 49 11 37
Red river delta basin (Khoai Chau-Phu Cu-
Tien Hai)30 273 28 692 1 581
2 Peat coal 400 164 235
Coal development plan
Items 2015 2020 2025 2030
A Saleable coal production 55.3 60.6 66.4 75.8
B Coal demand (1+2) 60.4 105.9 147.2 224.8
1 National demand 56.4 101.3 143.8 222.6
1.1 Coal-fired power 30.9 67.3 102.0 171.0
Domestic coal supply
(VINACOMIN-proven)29.9 26.5 27.8 29.8
Vietnam’s coal balance to 2030
� Coal industry would face both challenges in consumption vs.
production balance and challenges in coal price for domestic market,
investment capital, technology....
(VINACOMIN-proven)
1.2 Other industries 25.5 34.0 41.8 51.6
2 Export 4.0 4.6 3.3 2.2
C Imported-coal demand (B-A) 5.1 45.4 80.7 148.9
For coal-fired power 1.1 40.8 74.2 141.2
Unit: million tonnes
Vietnam’s power development planVietnam’s power system would move dependence from
hydropower & gas-fired power to coal-fired power
35%
39%
3% 0%
5%
2010
16%
52%
12%
9%
6%5%
2030
25%
48%
17%
6%
1%
3%
202019%
39%
Hydropower Coal-fired power
Oil & gas-fired power Renewable energy
Nuclear power Imported power
LEAP model
Demand side
LEAP
Environment
Presenting results in LEAP
by: Chart, table, graph, mind-
All costs, externalities
for any pollutants,
decommission costs
and unmet demand
costs …
Fueldemand, costs,
un-it productions, GHG
emission, air-
From bottom-up: end-user accounting techniques (fuel-
device-end user-subsector-sector) to top-down
macroeconomic modeling
The study applies a bottom-up model, the LEAP framework, to simulate
Vietnam’s power system in the next two decades with the base-year 2010.
Exporting results to
MS Excel, Power-point...
Supply side
by: Chart, table, graph, mind-
map... emission, air-
pollutant,…
Accounting and simulation methodologies for electricity
generation system and capacity expansion planning
Scenario definitions�(I) Simulate the power sector’s evolutions for the next 20
years with continuation of current policies in Vietnam.
�(II) Analyze effects of changing energy policies to total
power demand and power generation structures.
�(III) Promote power generation share from renewable
energy in the power sector.
Group Scenarios Demand side Supply side
I
Baseline scenario BS Average demand forecast (PDP VII)Continuation of current policies for
power development in High-demand
scenarioHS High demand forecast (PDP VII)
II
Gas scenario NS Average demand forecast (PDP VII) Increase natural gas and LNG use
Coal scenario CS Average demand forecast (PDP VII)Replace nuclear power by coal
power
Low demand
scenarioLS Lower power demand
No nuclear power, reduce coal
use
IIIRenewable
scenarioRS Average demand forecast (PDP VII)
Increase renewables resources,
reduce coal use
Results & analysis
Diversification of fuels for
power generation: Herfindahl-
Hirschman Index – HHI
Results & analysis
Net energy import dependence:
Results & analysisVulnerability to power sector caused by high share and high price of imported fuel:
Vulnerability index with different coal prices
Results & analysis
Quantities of Green-house gases (GHGs) from power sector
Cumulative GHG emissions 2010-2030 (Million ton CO2e)
Conclusions
�The higher power demand growth would be, the faster
Vietnam would depend on coal power, especially those
using imported coal.
�The current power generation development plan to 2030
could be the least-cost scenario but it could ensure less
security of energy supply than other scenarios.security of energy supply than other scenarios.
�Electricity import ratio in power source structure is
reasonable, which could be increase to 2030 to a higher
value.
�Because of reliance of imported coal which shares for
more 50% capacity of power generation structure,
imported coal price rise could be vulnerable to the
national economy
Recomendations
�To meet increasing power demand while reduce the
vulnerability of the power system and improve security of
energy supply, Vietnam needs a more diversity in energy
supply, particularly power generation structure.
�The government should promote advanced technology
transfers from developed countries both in generation side
and consumption side: USC coal-fired technology, save-
energy consuming equipment…
Recomendations
�Whether or not Vietnam would have to import steam
coal for its power generation. To reduce coal import, it
needs to develop local coal supply at least as scheduled. To
secure coal import supply, it is important to build trade
relations with potential suppliers as soon as possible
�Applying pollutant abatement policies is necessary and it
could lead to high penetration of advanced coal
technologies with emission controllers, even with
deployment of CO2 capture system in the country
Thank you for your attention!
Question and discuss?Question and discuss?