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Vietnam Business Review

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Vol 08, March 15th 2017

BUSINESS REVIEW VIETNAM

Vietnam's Largest State-Owned Coffee Company Plans 2018 IPO www.seiko-ideas.com

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/vietnam-s-largest-state-owned-coffee-company-plans-2018-ipo



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INSIDE THIS ISSUE

HIGHLIGHTS

Vietnam's Largest State-Owned Coffee Company Plans 2018 IPO

Vietnam pushes for fresh bilateral trade deal with US

HCMC Seeks US$50 Billion for Infrastructure Development

ECONOMY

Key economic indicators in February 2017

New U.S. tax plan seen impacting Vietnam exports

Da Nang continues leading PCI ranking

BANKING & FINANCE

Great opportunities await securities investors in 2017

Vietnam stock market capitalization reaches $101bn

INVESTMENT

Hai Phong fosters investment, tourism links with Japan

BIM Group, AEON to build Ha Noi mall

ENTERPRISES

Vinamilk sets up country’s 1st European-standard organic dairy farm

Japanese firm wants to join Vietnam’s tea industry

MARKET & PRICES

Consumer market grows, in both stretch and focus

Hospitality segment on the rise in Da Nang



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ECONOMY

Key economic indicators in February 2017

(Source: VGP)

New U.S. tax plan seen impacting Vietnam exports

SGT - Vietnam’s exports to the United States might be impacted at least in the short term if America

implements its border adjustment tax (BAT) as part of President Donald Trump’s plan to revise tax policy, a

macroeconomic report said.

http://www.seiko-ideas.com/



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The BAT, if implemented, would cause significant disadvantages for countries exporting goods to the U.S.,

including Vietnam, said the report, which was prepared and distributed by MarketIntello and the

Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN).

The March report was released after Trump’s first address to Congress last week.

He once again mentioned his plan to adjust tax policy in order to increase revenues from imports and

encourage firms to invest and produce domestically.

The BAT is part of this tax adjustment package.

America is Vietnam’s biggest market, the report said. It quoted figures of Vietnam’s General Department of

Customs as saying that shipments to America made up nearly 22% of Vietnam’s total exports last year, the

highest in more than 10 years.

Statistics of the department showed Vietnam’s export revenue amounted to US$176.63 billion last year, up

9% over 2015, and enjoyed a trade surplus of over US$2.52 billion.

Vietnam got US$38.46 billion from export sales to America, leaping 14.9% year-on-year; followed by the

European Union (EU) with US$33.97 billion.

The report pointed out effects of the BAT on Vietnamese exports would rely on a number of factors.

It said given declining domestic demand, Vietnam’s economic growth this year should depend heavily on

international trade.

Meanwhile, rising prices of raw materials at the beginning of the year could make inroads into corporate

profits as companies are unable to shift the burden of rising prices to domestic consumers if the State Bank

of Vietnam (SBV) tightens monetary policy to curb a recurrence of high inflation.

The report said that with a share of about 42%, apparel and footwear were the most important goods

Vietnam exported stateside, followed by mobile phones and accessories with a share of 11% and wooden

products with 7%.

The report noted for Vietnam’s top export earners, products such as garments and electronic products

could hardly be substituted by U.S. home products.

To deal with the BAT, exporting countries are expected to use monetary policy to weaken their currencies

against the U.S. dollar to maintain the competitiveness of their exports as a counter-measure to the 20%

border tax.

However, the report said the SBV is unlikely to devalue the Vietnamese dong currency much since it could

pile pressure on inflation.

With the appreciating greenback and a possible rate hike made by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the

dong-dollar exchange rate could be revised upwards by VND200, according to the report.

In addition, as Vietnam’s economic performance in February was within expectation, it is projected that

the country’s economy would expand 6.3% with a bigger contribution by the recovering agricultural sector

and inflation would grow 4.3-4.5%.

Interest rates throughout 2017 could be maintained at their 2016 levels, helped by efforts of the SBV and the

Government.




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Da Nang continues leading PCI ranking

VNA - The Vietnam Chamber of Commerce

and Industry (VCCI) and the US Agency for

International Development (USAID) on March

14 announced the Provincial Competitive

Index (PCI) 2016, which sees central Da Nang

city continuing topping for the seventh time

and the fourth consecutive year.

The annual report, the 12th of is kind so far,

gathers feedback and assessments the community on the business environment, economic management

quality and administrative reform efforts of the municipal and provincial governments across Vietnam.

According to VCCI President Dr. Vu Tien Loc said that PCI collects opinions of private firms, with an aim to

promote their growth, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, while creating jobs for people.

US Ambassador to Vietnam Ted Osius commented that PCI report is important to investors and businesses

interested in Vietnam.

The collection and analysis of data for the report show that competition helps improve operation

effectiveness, he said, adding it will also promote trade affiliation as well as economic growth and

prosperity.

According to the report, the northern province of Quang Ninh came second with 65.6 points, followed by

Mekong Delta Dong Thap province with 64.96 points, southern Binh Duong province with 63.57 points, Vinh

Long, 62.76 points and Lao Cai, 63.49 points.

Notably, Hanoi managed for the first time in many years to exceed the 60 point level and ranked 14th.

Dau Anh Tuan, head of the Legal Department of the VCCI, commented that the quality of governance of

cities and provinces has been improving.

Compared to 2015, bright signs have been seen in various aspects, including dynamism and pioneering of

the provincial administrations, informal cost, labor-force training, equal competition and business

registration.

However, administrative procedure burden and land access have yet to be solved while legal environment

is yet safe, posing obstacles for many domestic businesses, he said.

The PCI report 2016 has also reflected the rising trend of household businesses, as 65 percent of the firms

enjoyed profit, the highest figure in the recent five years.

The capital scale of a firm averaged a record high of 18.1 billion VND in 12 years, doubling that in 2006,

while the ratio of firms recruiting more employees also rose to 13 percent in 2016 from 12 percent in the

previous year.




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BANKING & FINANCE

Great opportunities await securities investors in 2017

VietNamNet Bridge - Securities investors found it

easy to make money in the stock market in 2016,

and they may have even bigger opportunities in

2017.

The VN Index reached 664.37 point threshold on

December 23, 2016, which represented a 29.3

percent increase in comparison to earlier this year.

The index exceeded a 9-year peak in 2016 with

numerous opportunities for securities to make

money.

Optimistic signs

Donald Trump will officially become the 45th US President on January 20, 2017. He wants to protect

domestic production and is anti-trade liberalization. If the US President rejects the TPP, this will have an

impact on Vietnamese enterprises in the fields of textiles & garments, seafood, footwear and logistics.

Analysts forecast that in the second half of 2017, the US FED would two times raise the prime interest rate,

which means that the domestic market would not bear big effects in the first half.

Vietnam’s economy has been performing well recently, while the expected GDP growth rate in 2017 is 6.6

percent.

The target of obtaining stock market capitalization value of 70

percent of GDP by 2020 shows the government’s strong

determination to turn the stock market into an important channel for

businesses to mobilize capital.

Analysts say the P/E in the Vietnamese stock market is at low level,

but the growth potential is great. With many enterprises with high

capitalization value in the time to come, the expected profit increases and more favorable conditions to

be set by the state, Vietnamese stocks are relatively cheap with numerous investment opportunities.

Investment opportunities

The VN Index has been increasing steadily since 2009 and the liquidity of the stock market has been

increasing year after year. It is expected that the VN Index may reach the 700 point threshold in the first half

of 2017.

The oil price recovery in the world is foreseeable as OPEC countries have agreed on the reduction of the

exploitation output. The high demand from China and the appreciation of the US dollar will support prices

of goods, especially crude oil. As such, the opportunities for oil & gas companies (GAS, PVD, PVS and PLC)

will be great in 2017.

Securities investors found it easy to

make money in the stock market in

2016, and they may have even

bigger opportunities in 2017.




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At present, oil & gas shares are being traded with a P/E of 9.6.

Analysts predict that the shares of FCMG manufacturing companies would see new breakthroughs.

The shares of the companies, including VNM, HNM, BHN and SAB, have been hunted on the stock market.

Many powerful enterprises plan to make IPOs in 2017. These include PV Oil, PV Power, VEAM (machinery),

Vinatex (textile & garment) and Vietjet.

Vietnam stock market capitalization reaches $101bn

VNE - Stock market capitalization has reached

VND2,260 trillion ($101 billion), equal to 50.3 per

cent of Vietnam’s GDP, a rise of 16 per cent

since the end of 2016 and the highest level since

the market began operations, Mr. Vu Bang,

Chairman of the State Securities Commission

(SSC), told a press conference in Hanoi last

week.

On March 6, the VN-Index stood at 716.29 points,

its highest level for ten years and 7.7 per cent

higher than at the end of 2016.

The HNX-Index stood at 86.55 points, up 8 per cent.

Market liquidity has improved, he went on, with an average transaction value of VND7.365 trillion ($324

million) each session, up 49 per cent against the same period last year and 6.6 per cent higher than the

average in 2016, adding that in the first two months of 2017, capital mobilization was VND40.7 trillion ($1.8

billion), a year-on-year fall of 27 per cent, while capital mobilization in February increased 79 per cent

against January.

Mr. Bang also noted that after some investment funds withdrew capital from Vietnam in the closing months

of 2016 due to expectations of the US Fed raising interest rate and the US dollar gaining value, since early

this year, foreign investors have bought VND1.545 trillion ($69 million) worth of shares and fund certificates

and VND5.960 trillion ($267 million) worth of bonds.

In the first month of 2017, the total value of foreign investors’ portfolios stood at a record $18.4 billion, he

added.




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INVESTMENT

Hai Phong fosters investment, tourism links with Japan

VNS — A forum was held in Hai Phong City

on Sunday to promote investment and

tourism partnerships with Japan, one of the

major investors in the northern port city.

Hai Phong was one of the first localities to

welcome Japanese firms seeking business

opportunities after Viet Nam initiated Doi Moi

(reforms). Its achievements in the past three

decades are partly thanks to Japanese

investors, noted Le Van Thanh, secretary of

the municipal Party Committee.

Japan is Viet Nam’s fourth biggest trade partner and its largest official development assistance (ODA)

provider, Thanh added.

Currently, 486 foreign direct investment projects from 36 countries worth around $14b are underway in the

city. These include 130 Japanese projects, which have a combined capital of $4.14b. Japan ranks first in

the number of projects and second in investment capital in Hai Phong.

The country has also provided significant ODA funds for key projects in Hai Phong and has helped the city

develop waste treatment plants and transport infrastructure, Thanh said.

At the forum, Thanh also promoted Hai Phong as a coastal, tourist city with its magnificent landscape,

hundreds of islands, including Cat Ba, a UNESCO world biosphere reserve, and beaches such as Do Son.

Jun Yanagi, vice-ambassador of Japan in Vietnam, said 2016 had been a successful year for tourism in

both countries. Last year, Japan welcomed 230,000 Vietnamese visitors, while Vietnam welcomed 470,000

Japanese visitors.

Japan now plans to establish an office of Japan National Tourism Organisation in Vietnam, the 16th of its

kind abroad, to promote Japan’s image to Vietnam, especially Hai Phong.

Japanese investment and trade promotion agencies will also work to further boost cooperation between

the two countries in general, and Japan and Hai Phong City in particular, Yanagi said.

In 2016, Hai Phong City posted an economic growth of 11%, which is 1.7 times higher than the national

average. Its port handled more than 80 million tonnes of goods, a year-on-year rise of 17%.

Around $3b worth of foreign investment poured into Hai Phong, making it the top foreign investment

destination in Vietnam, he said. Among the Japanese-invested projects in the city is the Nomura Industrial

Zone (IZ), a $140m project located on 153 hectares of land, all of which is now occupied.

A representative from Dinh Vu Industrial Zone, an infrastructure firm, said the city had welcomed 55

investors, which included huge international groups as well as local companies. The project to expand the




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current IZ and establish Deep C complex had been taken up to attract more investors, especially Japanese

firms.

At the forum, Japanese entrepreneurs talked about how Hai Phong can benefit from more partnerships

with them, especially in the industry and tourism sectors, and create employment opportunities in Japan for

Vietnamese people.

Hai Phong and Japan signed three memorandums of understanding (MoU) on cultural exchanges and

tourism promotion. The city also inked a MoU on flower cultivation with Greenwin Company and another on

developing logistics and transportation systems with Fukuyama Transporting Co Ltd.

BIM Group, AEON to build Ha Noi mall

VNS — Property developer BIM Group and

the AEON Vietnam Co Ltd, a subsidiary of

the leading Japanese retail and financial

services corporation AEON, have signed a

co-operation agreement to build a new

shopping mall in Hanoi’s Ha Dong District.

The mall, with a total floor area of over

200,000sq.m, will be AEON’s second in

Hanoi. Construction will start in 2017 and is

expected to be completed in April, 2019.

The project is designed to provide parking for thousands of cars and will also be connected to public

transportation with the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) route 1 running from Yen Nghia Station to Kim Ma Station and

BRT route 2 running from Kim Ma Station to Hoa Lac High-tech Park. Eventually it will also be linked to the

Cat Linh-Ha Dong elevated urban railway project.

When put into operation in 2019, AEON Mall Ha Dong is expected to create thousands of jobs for local

workers.

BIM Group is partnering with many famous international brands, including Frasers Hospitality,

InterContinental Hotels Group, Regent Hotels & Resorts, Hyatt Hotels and The Ascott Limited.

AEON is now one of the largest retailing groups in the world with over 179 member companies both inside

and outside Japan. Its business operation expanded to 14 countries and territories, including eight Asian

countries. AEON has been present in Việt Nam since 2009 and currently has four shopping malls in the

country.




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ENTERPRISES

Vinamilk sets up country’s 1st European-standard organic dairy farm

VNS — The Vietnam Dairy Products Joint

Stock Company (Vinamilk) on Monday

began operating the country’s first organic

dairy farm that meets European standards.

The Đà Lạt-based farm with a herd of 500

cows in the first stage is the company’s

second in the Tây Nguyên (Central

Highlands) province of Lâm Đồng.

The 70ha farm, which cost VNĐ200 billion

(US$8.8 million), has received certification

from the Control Union, a Dutch-based

global quality certifier, for meeting European standards.

The entire cow population has been carefully selected and given organic feed.

The farm follows three strict rules: no stimulants, no pesticides in feed and no residues in milk.

Mai Kiều Liên, Vinamilk’s CEO, told the media that the organic farm would not only meet local demand for

milk but also increase foreign markets’ confidence in Vietnamese dairy products.

The giant milk producer has 10 dairy farms around the country and plans to increase the number of farms

that follow Global GAP standards.

Japanese firm wants to join Vietnam’s tea industry

VNA - Japan’s Sasaki Seicha company has surveyed Vietnam’s tea industry for a year and realised that this

is a market not to be missed, the firm’s General Director Iwasaki Masao said.

The Cong Thuong (Industry & Trade) newspaper quoted him as saying that Vietnam used to be the world’s

fourth biggest tea producer, but this ranking has dropped recently. Meanwhile, its tea export prices have

decreased.

The Japanese firm wants to work with Vietnamese partners to export local tea products abroad, he noted.

Sasaki Seicha has been working with the Tea & Food Vietnam JSC to make plans for building tea factories

and tea purchasing and farming in some northern provinces.

Vietnam has a tea farming area of 124,000 hectares, producing 500,000 tonnes of dry tea each year.

It exported 130,900 tonnes of tea worth SU$217.2 million in 2016, increases of 5.1 percent in volume and 2.1

percent in value from the previous year, according to preliminary data from the General Department of

Vietnam Customs.




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MARKET & PRICES

Consumer market grows, in both stretch and focus

VIR - Vietnamese consumer firms will continue to

be in the spotlight of foreign investors in 2017

given their robust growth potential.

According to Ngo Vinh Tuan, head of investment

banking at Viet Capital Securities, overseas

investors will eye possible mergers and

acquisitions (M&A) with domestic companies, as

well as initial public offerings (IPOs) of well-known

names this year.

“We’re likely to see continuous investments from foreign investors, especially Japanese, Korean,

Singaporean, Taiwanese, and Thai. Key industries include retail, consumer goods, real estate, and

industrials,” Tuan said. “As more large Vietnamese firms become available for IPOs and M&As with

foreigners, the size of deals will be larger and more complex.”

Some high-profile listings and IPOs of 2017 include Vietjet Aviation JSC- completed last month, Saigon

Trading Group, PetroVietnam Oil Corporation, Vietnam urban and Industrial Zone Development Investment

Corporation Co., Ltd., and telecommunications giant Mobifone.

Most investors are lured in by Vietnam’s consumer-related companies thanks to their positive prospects in

the fast-growing economy. In the last decade, Vietnam’s GDP has tripled, with average per capita income

doubled, and one-third of the 90-plus million population now resides in urban areas. About 3.4 million

Vietnamese families now have annual income of US$5,000 or more, compared to only 1.6 million in 2005.

The average Vietnamese is still young at 31 years of age. The changing demographics, with a rising middle-

class in cities and higher disposable income, have bolstered private consumption.

“Compared to the previous generations, Vietnamese consumers are now more willing to spend for personal

fulfilment, thanks to their higher income. They want to open their wallet for experiences, gadgets, fitness

programmes, and education, which are good for companies in these industries,” said Richard Burrage,

CEO of Cimogo Vietnam, a consumer market research company in Vietnam.

However, Burrage noted that not all consumer-related sectors will benefit from shifting demographics in

Vietnam. For example, young Vietnamese consumers now prefer a proactive approach to healthcare,

which means visiting the gym, dieting, or enrolling in fitness programmes rather than buying medicine. The

latest smartphone is now their status symbol, not a fancy motorbike.

“Tourism, hospitality, and air transportation will grow as consumers are eager to travel and discover the

world. Their adventures, and daily lives, are likely to be captured by smartphones and posted on social

media, thus firms offering digital services will also become popular”, Burrage said.


http://static.english.vov.vn/w490/uploaded/wzzqbijjvws/2017_03_13/mQjKQFWD_WXPQ.jpg



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On the contrary, pharmaceuticals, motorbikes, and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) will move to the

back-burner.

It is indeed surprising that FMCG growth in Vietnam may be stalled while Vietnam’s private consumption in

general will surge. Ralf Mattheas, CEO of Infocus Vietnam, reasoned that as Vietnamese consumers

dedicate a larger part of their budget to personal fulfilment goals, they are likely to cut back on the basics,

including FMCG.

“Investors should take notice that FMCG may not experience a ‘great boom’ in Vietnam as consumers

continue to choose reasonably-priced products with good health benefits, rather than splurging on these

basics. Most consumers, in fact, would rather save up for the latest smartphone, enrol in classes, or travel

around instead,” said Mattheas.

Experts also reminded investors that modern retail in Vietnam, including convenience stores and

supermarkets, is still in its early stages, especially in rural areas. It will take a while for modern channels to

phase out traditional ones like wet markets or mom-and pop stores, which are ubiquitous in any

Vietnamese neighbourhood. Investments in modern retail, as a result, should be long-term.

Hospitality segment on the rise in Da Nang

VNE - Da Nang holds substantial potential for real estate investment with major opportunities available in

the hospitality segment, according to the latest report from real estate consultants Savills.

Hotel supply in the fourth quarter of 2016 was approximately 9,030 rooms following the entry of four three- to

four-star hotels, an increase of 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 19 per cent year-on-year.

Room tariffs in all segments increased, by 18 per cent year-on-year, and average revenue rose 26 per cent.

Nine four- to five-star hotels supplying approximately 2,200 rooms will come this year.

Condotel stock in the fourth quarter of 2016, meanwhile, was approximately 3,910 units from ten projects, of

which 1,325 were primary supply.

Son Tra district had the most, with 50 per cent, followed by Ngu Hanh Son district with 44 per cent.

Total apartment stock was 3,495 units from 15 projects, of which 520 are primary supply. Ngu Hanh Son

district had the most, with 30 per cent, followed by Son Tra, Hai Chau and Thanh Khe districts.

Savills said that guaranteed returns are offered in many condotel projects’ pre-sales programs.

APEC 2017, being held later in the year in the central city, will likely increase condotel performance and

spur a rash of investments.

The report also noted that Da Nang continues to establish itself as a competitive coastal location for both

domestic and international tourists.

It welcomed 5.51 million visitors last year, up 18 per cent year-on-year, according to the Da Nang

Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism.

International arrivals were 1.66 million, an increase of 31.6 per cent, with 3.84 million domestic tourists also

visiting the city, up 12.5 per cent. Total tourism revenue was estimated at VND16 trillion ($727.2 million), up

24.7 per cent.




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HIGHLIGHTS

Vietnam's Largest State-Owned Coffee Company Plans 2018 IPO

Bloomberg - Vietnam National

Coffee Corp., the nation’s largest

state-owned robusta producer, is

planning an initial public offering

next year as the government

reduces its stake in the company.

The IPO will include Vinacafe and 18

units, deputy director general

Nguyen Van Minh, said in an

interview at a coffee festival in the

Central Highland’s city of Buon Ma

Thuot. The government also plans to reduce its stake in seven other subsidiaries by 35 percent in separate

IPOs at an undetermined time, he said. The process valuing the company is expected to start in July, Minh

said.

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta beans, used in instant coffee. Annual coffee exports are

estimated at $2.5 billion to $3 billion, according to Do Ha Nam, vice head of Vietnam Coffee Cocoa

Association and chairman of Intimex Group, the country’s top exporter.

Vinacafe forecasts revenue this year of between 4 trillion dong and 4.5 trillion dong ($175 million to $197

million), Minh said. That compares with 3 trillion dong in 2016. It expects to export between 80,000 tons and

100,000 tons of beans from next year, up from 50,000 tons in 2017, he said. The company shipped 22,000

tons of last year.

Vietnam pushes for fresh bilateral trade deal with US

VOV - The remaining 11 members of the Trans Pacific Partnership aim to reach agreement on whether to

move ahead with the trade pact without the US when they meet on March 14-15 in Chile.

Vietnam Ambassador to the US Pham Quang Vinh said on March 7 that trade officials from the remaining

TPP countries plan to hold the two-day meeting in Chile to discuss the future of the trade agreement now

that President Trump has withdrawn the US from the deal.

The outcome of those discussions is not clear, Ambassador Pham told a program sponsored by the Asia

Society’s Policy Institute.

But he said the Vietnam government believes it would be a mistake to allow the TPP to die – regardless of

whether it continues as a regional agreement or becomes a template that is used in future free trade

agreements in other parts of the globe.

If the decision is made to forge ahead with the TPP, the next question would be whether to take on new

members, said the Ambassador.


https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0660821D:VN

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0660821D:VN



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He also unveiled that trade representatives from the Republic of Korea are planning to attend the meeting

in Chile although it is not a current TPP member.

The government of the ROK had intended to join the TPP once it came into force and was ready to accept

additional members, ROK Ambassador to the US Ahn Ho-Young told the gathering. That was the ROK ‘Plan

A.’

Now the ROK is looking at its ‘Plan B’ – joining the TPP if the remaining members make the decision to move

ahead.

He endorsed the recommendations of a new Asia Society report that the 11 remaining TPP members

continue to implement the accord without the US and open membership to more countries.

President Trump has said he wants to negotiate fresh bilateral trade agreements with the TPP countries that

are not already participating in a free trade agreement with the US.

But the Vietnam government has so far not received any such overtures from the Trump administration,

noted Mr Pham.

However, the Vietnam government would be highly receptive to any trade proposals from the US that

move in the direction of opening new bilateral trade agreement negotiations, he added.

HCMC Seeks US$50 Billion for Infrastructure Development

By 2030, Ho Chi Minh City needs around

US$ 50 billion for infrastructure

development and welcomes the Asian

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to

support investors to join the process.

Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party

Committee Dinh La Thang made the

point on March 6 in HCMC while

receiving Mr Jin Liqun, Chairman of the

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

(AIIB).

The host leader highlighted the significance of infrastructure for national development. Thus, the city is

willing to cooperate with international financial institutions, including the AIIB in favor of win-win benefits.

In return, Mr Jin Liqun expressed his impression of Viet Nam’s robust developments and vowed to provide

additional credits for development projects in Viet Nam.

“There are wide doors for AIIB and HCMC to tap in development period, especially in settlement of traffic

congestion, sewage treatment, and urban infrastructure development,” Mr. Jin Liqun said.

He also pledged to study preferential credits for private enterprises engaging in infrastructure development.




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