Vice Chancellor,NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Kashmir Earthquake 2005: Early in the morning of 8thOctober 2005, a devastating 7.6 mw magnitude earthquake, saidto be the most powerful to hit the region in 100 years, shook thenorthern regions of Pakistan, and Pakistan administrated Kashmir(Azad Jammu and Kashmir), an area of nearly 30,000 km,covering 9 Districts, 25 Tehsils, and 4000 villages.

Terrace of Kunhar River at Balakot, Pakistan, in the hanging wall of the Balakot-Bagh fault.

[Source: DAWN.com]

The hypocenter was located at a depth of 26 km below thesurface and resulted due to the northwestward motion ofIndian plate that collided with the Eurasian plate.

It reactivated the northwest-striking fault, called as theBalakot–Bagh fault.

The towns within the 100 Km range from the epicenter werethe worst affected such as Balakot, Neelum, Muzaffarabad,Bagh, Manshehra.

The affected area is rugged mountainous terrain with harshweather conditions and exposure to such severe seismicactivity was never reported in the history of this region.

Location diagram for the area around the fault rupture associated with the Kashmir

earthquake of 8 October 2005. [Source: EERI]

Major landslides resulted during and after theearthquake, causing large casualties in the area anddamages to the infrastructure.

Landslide in Chela Bandi near Muzaffarabad was themost notable, where a 500 m tall slide occurredextending about 2 km in the north-south direction.

Housing Damages in EQ [Source: DAWN NEWS]

Catastrophic Damages Over 73,000 killed (19,000 children) and over

125,000 seriously injured.

6,298 schools and 796 health facilities, 3,994water supply systems and 949 governmentbuildings were damaged and destroyed.

6,440 km roads damaged.

3.2-3.5 million persons affected.

2.8 million persons without Shelter and 2.3million persons without adequate food.

325,000 persons (30%) lost employment.

Total monetary losses amounted to US $5billion, including immediate relief, death andinjury compensation, emergency medicalcare, reconstruction and restoration oflivelihoods.

[Source: Annual Review 2005-2006, ERRA 2006]

A satellite image of a landslide (right) on the northern outskirts of Muzaffarabad, on 9 Oct 2005 [Source: DigitalGlobe]

A framework, the NationalCalamities (Prevention and Relief)Act of 1958, did provide thegovernment to respond and tosome extent, prepare for disastersnationwide.

Missing DRR Institutional Framework

Historically, disaster management inPakistan was focused on the ReactiveEmergency Response Paradigm (ERP).

No resilience was in place and noother policy existed nationally toconfront such a calamities.

Building codes are universally enforced in nations where they have been adopted

In developing nationsalike earthquakeresistant design codesare adopted at anational level.

But weakly enforcedat a local level, due tothe absence oftechnical capacity, willto implement, lack ofenforcementmechanism.Built Environment of Pakistan

Pressure on housing due to large population and less space leads to rampantcorruption

In urban centres, especially, there is alwaysan acute shortage of housing either due tolack of space or huge migration from ruralareas for better prospects.

This puts more and more pressure onhousing needs thus giving rise to slumps andunauthorised construction.

Especially, private developers inconnivance with local buildingofficials built structures which areunsafe. There is a common practiceto built apartments which differfrom approved drawings.

Socio – Economic Conditions of Homeowners Pakistan ranks at 146 out of 187

countries in the United NationsHuman Development Index (HDI)used for the national wellbeingand measured by thedevelopment in health, educationand income.

Especially in rural area, very often ahomeowner or a group of homeowners willteam up to build one or more dwellings fortheir families. They buy the land (sometimes),and stockpile the materials, buying minimumquantities and inferior qualities. Constructionoccurs with no technical guidance. Suchstructures may incorporate fatal omissions.

Bad Governance In most of the developing countriescorruption is rampant at all levels which attimes erode governance completely.

Officials and politicians, both, circumventlaws to make money.

One cannot only blame 'poor corruption' asthe root cause of poor and ill-planned builtenvironment.

The difference is in the way developed countrieshave managed themselves. Developed countriesare the result of prolonged and sustained goodgovernance as compared to the developingcountries. Developed countries are normallyconsidered to be expensive but money collectedfrom taxes and other service charges is well spentgenerally in developing infrastructure andprovision of basic facilities.

A Possible Solution - Techno – legal regime

In 350 BC, Aristotle suggested in The Politics that “. . .to protect the treasury from being defrauded, let allmoney be issued openly in front of the whole city,and let copies of the accounts be deposited invarious wards.”

i.e. remedy is to make the system transparent

The 2005 relief response at the national level was coordinatedby an ad hoc body called the Emergency Relief Cell (ERC),established by the Federal Relief Commission (FRC) thatfunctioned under the Cabinet Division.

The Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority(ERRA) established immediately after the earthquake with mainfunction to rehabilitate the victims of the 2005 earthquake.

In 2006, the President of Pakistan promulgated the NationalDisaster Management Ordinance (NDMO). National DisasterManagement System was introduced in the country under thisordinance.

Disaster Management Hierarchy for Pakistan

The Ordinance was later changed into the National Disaster Management Act in 2010, in alignment with theglobal Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA).

Under the Act, the National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) was established with theresponsibilities of formulating policies and guidelines for disaster risk management and approval of theNational Action Plan for Pakistan.

NDMC in 2007 establishes the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which serves as theimplementing, coordinating and monitoring body for disaster risk management in Pakistan.

In late 2010, the Government of Pakistan Planning Commission issued a decision that "all developmentprojects requiring approval of Government should ... incorporate measures of disaster risk reduction at theproject design, planning and implementation stages“.

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan Under the Act of 2010,formation of DMA atNational (NDMA),Provincial/regional(PDMA) and District(DDMA) level.

NDMA responsible tomanage completespectrum of DM atnational level.

One windowoperation, all agencies- foreign or domestic -shall work throughNDMA.

Paradigm shift fromreactive to proactiveapproach.

Dedicated resources. Framework identified

NINE PRIORITY areasfor national capacitydevelopment.

Seismic Design in Pakistan

Pre-Partition: Seismic design provisions wereadded to the building code of the municipalityof Quetta after a damaging earthquake therein 1935 (Quetta, 1937).

1947 through the 1970’s: British buildingcodes remained in use after partition. Outsideof Quetta, however, careful earthquake designwas rare.

1970’s to 1986: Trained engineers beganapplying American codes, especially theUniform Building Code (UBC).

1986 to 2007: Pakistan's first national building code was published in 1986 as "anadvisory document" with seismic provisions modeled on contemporary editions of theUBC.

The 2007 Building Code of Pakistan - Seismic Provisions 2007 (BCP), is the country'sfirst earthquake design code to be referenced in national policy.

The Building Code In 2005, the Ministry of Housing & Works hired

National Engineering Services Pakistan(NESPAK) to develop seismic hazard mapsand earthquake design provisions for athorough update of the 1986 code.

NESPAK, then approached the InternationalCode Council (ICC) and formed a core group ofexperts convened by the Pakistan EngineeringCouncil (PEC), mostly academics.

The 2007 BCP is widely recognized as a majorstep forward for earthquake engineeringpractice in Pakistan.

The nature of the 2007 BCP as an amalgam ofAmerican standards, such as, UBC-97, ACI-318–05, AISC 341–05, ASCE 7–93.

Recommendations for EARTHQUAKE in BCP BCP divides the country into five seismicmapped zones but remains limited tostructural design for new buildings.

Seismic zonation maps based on designresponse spectrum (DRS).

The design level ground motions (peakground accelerations) corresponding toearthquake motion which has 10percent probability of exceedance oncein every 50 years and 500 years ofreturn period for the design levelearthquake.

The seismic provisions also details theselection and choice of materials forlocal construction.

New recommendations about the designof different typologies of buildings aregiven for different terrestrial, geologicaland soil conditions.

General recommendations for masonrystructures are now also specified in thenew BCP-2007.

Working Together To Reduce Risk & To Raise Resilience

The risk is ever increasing as urbanisation is adding extra pressure onbuilding construction.

The revision and upgrade of the Code needs to be a continuous processoverlaid with population density, infrastructural quality, and the capacityof the disaster management authorities and rescue agencies to get thecomplete picture.

Micro Seismic Zoning needed, for example take the case of Karachi, thecity is located near a tri-junction of tectonic plates, and is still consideredto be at low- to moderate-level threat from earthquakes.

Due to social, political and economic changes, traditional practice andknowledge that have helped communities to cope with hazards andsustain local capacity in high risk areas is overlooked.

Empowering communities through participative assessments in policy-making, so that advantage of local knowledge with scientific methods canbe integrated in developing strategies for National Action Plan.

CONCLUSION: Activities @ NEDUET

Retrofitting of Adobe Structure using Bamboo

Cowasjee Earthquake Study Centre (CESNED) isestablished in 2001 after the devastating Bhujearthquake.

Department of Earthquake Engineering is establishedat NED University of Engineering and Technology in2011.

Shake Table Facilityat NEDUET

Advanced Material Testing Facility at NEDUET

THE INSTITUTION OF ENGINEERS, KARACHI, PAKISTAN (IEP)

THE ASIAN CIVIL ENGINEERING COORDINATING COUNCIL (ACECC)

JAPAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS (JSCE)

CECAR8 SECRETARIAT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT