VIA of Climate Change on Malaysia Agricultural System: Current ...
Transcript of VIA of Climate Change on Malaysia Agricultural System: Current ...
VIA of Climate Change on Malaysia Agricultural System: Current understanding and Plan
Sahibin Abd. Rahim Universi@ Kebangsaan Malaysia The Na@onal Universi@ of Malasia
CLIMATIC CHANGE IN MALAYSIA Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin • Director, Soil Resource Management
a n d C o n s e r v a @ o n D i v i s i o n , Department of Agriculture, Malaysia
• Loca@on:
• La@tudes 0o 60' N to 6o 40' N and from longitudes 99o 35' E to 119o 25' E. Malaysia is a humid tropical country and its climate is characterized by monsoon winds which are subject to interference by mountains in Peninsula Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra.
• The average annual rainfall is about 2,420
mm/yr in the peninsular, 2,630 mm/yr in Sabah and 3850 mm/yr in Sarawak. However, the annual rainfall is more than 4,000 mm/yr in mountainous areas of Sarawak, and more than 3,000 mm/yr in the northern half of Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal areas of Sabah and Sarawak.
• The monthly mean air temperature is 25oC to
28oC in the coastal lowlands and monthly rela@ve humidity is between 75 to 90%.
CLIMATIC CHANGE IN MALAYSIA • Extreme or severe weather is simply really bad weather or weather
on larger, more serious and devasta@ng scale, crea@ng a natural disaster.
• A disaster caused by climate change could be defined as a serious
disrup@on to the func@oning of a community or a society causes widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
• In Malaysia, forecast have been made on climate modeling using 14
GCM’s (Global Climate Models) which shows that Malaysia could experience temperature changes from 0.7 to 2.6 degree Celsius and precipita@on changes ranging from -‐30% to 30%.
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
• These factors could be global, na@onal and localized factors.
• Global warming, open burning (haze) are some of the good examples of global factor that are transborder in nature .
• Na@onal and localized causal factors include industrializa@on, clearing of land for agriculture, encroachment of fragile ecosystem.
• Seluas 6,230 hektar kawasan tanah padi di kawasan Lembaga Kemajuan Pertanian Muda (Mada) @dak akan menjalankan ak@vi@ pertanian berikutan masalah kawasan tanah jerlus untuk tempoh setahun tahun depan, kawasan tersebut melipu@ 860 hektar tanah sawah di Pendang dan Kubang Pasu manakala 5,370 hektar lagi di seluruh kawasan Mada di Kedah dan Perlis.
• Seramai 2,831 petani @dak dapat melakukan kerja penanaman padi dalam tempoh itu apabila tanah mereka akan dikeringkan dan dibiarkan selama setahun dan hanya dapat menjalankan ak@vi@ pertanian pada tahun 2014. Masalah ini jika @dak ditangani dengan segera, ia akan menyebabkan hasil padi berkurangan sebanyak 30,000 tan semusim dan ini memberi impak kepada pengeluaran beras negara.
Sumber / Source : Bernama nov 2012
TANAH JERLUS / TANAH LEMBUT DI WILAYAH MADA
• In general, Malaysia could be considered as a free zone from climate related disaster. However, mild climate related disasters are quite frequent to happen lately.
• These refer to the occurrence of floods and droughts that caused significant socio-‐economic impacts to the na@on
• The occurrence of landslides due to excessive rainfall and strong winds happened at the hilly and the laher, at the coastal areas caused minimal damage.
VULNERABILITY
PERANGKAAN UTAMA PADI DAN BERAS MENGIKUT SEMUA MUSIM, 2000 – 2010, KAWASAN JELAPANG PADI
No. Tahun Keluasan Bertanam
Hektar
Purata Hasil Kilogram/Hektar
Pengeluaran Padi Tan
Pengeluaran Beras Tan
1 2000 391,012 3,749 1,465,735 952,728
2 2001 375,116 3,833 1,437,659 934,478
3 2002 382,355 3,904 1,492,818 970,332
4 2003 342,349 3,360 1,566,000 1,017,900
5 2004 340,529 3,434 1,531,000 995,150
6 2005 321,816 3,471 1,587,000 1,031,550
7 2006 387,312 3,771 1,460,473 949,308
8 2007 386,592 4,207 1,626,449 1,057,192
9 2008 384,145 4,249 1,632,407 1,061,065
10 2009 391,625 4,646 1,819,406 1,182,614
11 2010 387,160 4,540 1,757,575 1,142,423
Sumber / Source : Jabatan Pertanian Malaysia / Department of Agriculture, Malaysia
PERANGKAAN UTAMA PADI DAN BERAS MENGIKUT SEMUA MUSIM, 2000 – 2010, KAWASAN JELAPANG PADI
IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
• In agriculture, one of the mahers that affected con@nuously is flood. (big flood 2007)
• Flooding can be defined as any area of land covered by water which is normally dry. Some@mes water levels can rise slowly and unno@ced. Other @me, flooded can be rapid, sudden and unexpected.
IMPACT
• Second maher related to extreme climate change is droughts. (dry period between June to October oken stretch the water supply for off season rice plan@ng)
• A drought can be defined as a con@nuous and long period in which rainfall is significantly below the average expected for a region at that @me of year.
• (longer dry period in the northern – favour Harum Manis Mango produc@on)
IMPACT • According to official projec@ons, increasing in temperature and changes in rainfall pahern could affect yields directly.
• Increased in temperature and changes in rainfall pahern could fasten the spread of fungus and diseases directly or indirectly ( e.g Phytopthora sp in rubber planta@on), thus affec@ng yield.
• The most vulnerable to these changes are the northern Peninsular Malaysia as well as the coastal of Sabah and Sarawak.
IMPACT • The impacts on agricultural differ from one to the other. Climate
change signifies by decrease in rainfall will affected crops that need wet condi@ons such as paddy, vegetables and others.
• Rice grain yields also may decline by 9 to 10% for each 1 degree Celsius rise. Prolonged droughts make it impossible to sustain the flooded rice ecosystem and it will jeopardize security of food supply.
• Prolonged rainfall will also affect the sunshine hours. Thus, affec@ng yield of crop (e.g. rice grain filling).
• Meanwhile, the rising in sea level due to climate change could force
the abandoning of low-‐lying planted areas such as paddy, corn, coconut and others. (also cause salt water intrusion)
ADAPATION • The use of AgroclimaYc ClassificaYon in agricultural
planning. • The Department of Agriculture draked an agroclima@c map
of Peninsular Malaysia based on the agriculture rainfall index (ARI) in 1990. Ten agroclima@c (ARI) zones were iden@fied according to the number of consecu@ve dry and consecu@ve wet months. The agroclima@c maps defined the various regions according to the varia@ons in environmental requirements of different crops as well as on the regional differences of the natural environment, par@cularly climate and soils.
ADAPTATION
The use of Soil Suitability Criteria for crop producYon Physical and chemical proper@es of the soil affect crop produc@on. Soil depth, texture, clay frac@on, soil structure, bulk density and available soil moisture are among the major soil physical proper@es that affect crop produc@on. Soil reac@on, ca@on exchange capacity and nutrient composi@on are the soil chemical proper@es, important in crop produc@on. By considering these proper@es in soil suitability classifica@on, the success of a crop produc@on endeavour can be ensured with a reasonable margin of safety.
Others Adapta@on Measures
ü Develop plant varie@es that are tolerant to high temperatures and high water use efficiency
ü Preserve Permanent Forest Reserves and water catchment areas to ensure adequate water supply for agriculture
ü Strengthen agricultural extension services (soil conserva@on measure and produc@on efficiency)
Others Adapta@on Measures
ü Strengthen Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and biocontrol procedures to deal incidences of pest and diseases
ü Improve regional and interna@onal coopera@on on agriculture-‐ climate change related issues
ü Introduce agriculture insurance to minimize risk related to climate change
THANK YOU
IN BRIEF
• Climate component press
Climate change in Malaysia (Mahmudul Alam et al. 2013)
• According to the United Na@onsDevelopment Report, carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia increased by 221% during the period of 1990 to 2004,
• the country is included in the list of 30 biggest greenhouse gas emihers.
• Curb Global Warming (2007) quoted from the Associated Press (AP) that rapid growth in emissions has occurred even though Malaysia ra@fied the Kyoto Protocol and has taken several ini@a@ves to use renewable energy as well as ways to cut emissions.
• Currently Malaysia ranks as the 26th largest greenhouse gas emiher in the world with a popula@on of about 27 million, and it appears likely to move up the list quickly due to the growth rate of emissions.
• The clima@c change causes change in several agriculture relevant factors that determine the sustainability of agricultural produc@on.
• Farmers believe that vulnerability of some of the factors like – injurious insects (supported by 42.9% of the farmers), – temperature (supports by 58.6% of the farmers), – soil fer@lity loss (supports by 49.5% of the farmers), – cost of inputs (supports by 61.1% of the farmers), – shortage of rainfall (supports by 45.5% of the farmers), – excessive rainfall (supports by 35.9% farmers) increased over the last 5 years (Alam et al., 2011b).