Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia
description
Transcript of Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
Verification results of heat wave warnings in
Croatia
L. Kalin and Z. Vakula
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
heat waves...
• July – August 2003 in France
• approx. 70 000 deaths associated with heat stress
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
warnings...
• a major role of national meteorological services in the future will be associated with weather warnings
• reliable and in-time prediction of high impact weather can provide more efficient mitigation, it can reduce costs and save lives
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
heat warnings...
• since 2012• Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia• in cooperation with Ministry of Health• issued daily - for the next four days – 8 regions
GREEN No danger
YELLOW Moderate danger
ORANGE High danger
RED Very high danger
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
criteria...maximum temperature minimum temperature
moderate high very high moderate high very high
Osijek 35.2 36.7 38.8 20.1 21.2 22.9
Zagreb 33.7 35.1 37.1 20.2 21.3 22.9
Karlovac 34.5 35.9 38 20 21.1 22.7
Gospić 32.1 33.4 35.4 17 18 19.6
Rijeka 32.7 33.9 35.5 22.7 23.7 25.1
Knin 35.5 36.9 39 20.5 21.6 23.1
Split 33.9 35.1 36.7 25.8 26.8 28.2
Dubrovnik 32.3 33.2 34.7 25.4 26.3 27.6
if both conditions are met OR a level persists for 3 days
then go one (and only one) level up!
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
end product
• Issued every day at 11 am
• Delivered to special users
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
seasonal forecast
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
summer 2012
• Extremely hot (in many places record breaking)
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
July forecast/observed
• Operational forecast (for the next day)
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
August forecast/observed
• Operational forecast (for the next day)
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
results
• a significant number of days with warning level (observations), particularly on the coast
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
results
• significant overestimation, not related to lead time
"no danger" observed & forecasted
5852
6662
32
40 4237
05
10152025303540455055606570
Isto
čna
Hrv
atsk
a(O
sije
k)
Sre
dišn
jaH
rvat
ska
(Zag
reb)
Pok
uplje
(Kar
lova
c)
Gor
ska
Hrv
atsk
a(G
ospi
ć)
Unu
traš
.D
alm
acije
(Kni
n)
Sje
vern
iJa
dran
(Rije
ka)
Sre
dnji
Jadr
an(S
plit)
Južn
iJa
dran
(Dub
rovn
ik)
observed day1 day 2 day 3 day 4
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
results
...particularly for the “very high danger” events
"very high danger" observed & forecasted
4
6
1
3
910
13
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Isto
čna
Hrv
ats
ka(O
sije
k)
Sre
diš
nja
Hrv
ats
ka(Z
ag
reb
)
Po
kup
lje(K
arl
ova
c)
Go
rska
Hrv
ats
ka(G
osp
ić)
Un
utr
aš.
Da
lma
cije
(Kn
in)
Sje
vern
iJa
dra
n(R
ijeka
)
Sre
dn
jiJa
dra
n(S
plit
)
Južn
iJa
dra
n(D
ub
rovn
ik)
observed day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
results
...still a number of “misses”
"no danger" forecasted, still observed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Isto
čna
Hrv
ats
ka(O
sije
k)
Sre
diš
nja
Hrv
ats
ka(Z
ag
reb
)
Po
kup
lje(K
arl
ova
c)
Go
rska
Hrv
ats
ka(G
osp
ić)
Un
utr
aš.
Da
lma
cije
(Kn
in)
Sje
vern
iJa
dra
n(R
ijeka
)
Sre
dn
jiJa
dra
n(S
plit
)
Južn
iJa
dra
n(D
ub
rovn
ik)
1. dan 2. dan 3. dan 4. dan
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
scores
...no evolution with time
POD (PROBABILITY of DETECTION) 1 is best
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4
os zg ka gokn ri st du
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
scores
...no evolution with time
FALSE ALARM 0 is best
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4
os zg ka go
kn ri st du
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
summary
• DHMZ issues heat warnings since 2012• based on objective/climatological guidance (Tmin and
Tmax)• positive societal impact • forecasts slight overbiased, particularly for the higher
danger levels – reasonable?• no significant dependance on lead time?• system slightly “oversensitive” – leads to spatial-
temporal incoherence (reflects on the verif. scores)• provide feed-back to the forecasters• improve forecasting system for the next seasons
13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK
Thank you for your attention!