Case Debates

Acidification

A2: Ocean Acidification

There is no acidification trend! Their reports are based on bad science which undermines the entire climate change narrativeMarita Noon, Executive Director, Energy Makes America Great Inc., December 22, 2014, “Marita Noon discusses an ocean acidification,” Junk Science, http://junkscience.com/2014/12/22/marita-discusses-an-ocean-acidification-research-fraud/, Accessed 12-27-2014Interestingly, in this same general timeframe, NOAA reissued its World Ocean Database. Wallace was then able to extract the instrumental records he sought and turned the GEPH data into a meaningful time series chart, which reveals that the oceans are not acidifying. (For another day, Wallace found that the levels coincide with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.) As Wallace emphasized: “there is no global acidification trend.” Regarding the chart in question, Wallace concludes: “Ocean acidification may seem like a minor issue to some, but besides being wrong, it is a crucial leg to the entire narrative of ‘human-influenced climate change.’ By urging our leaders in science and policy to finally disclose and correct these omissions, you will be helping to bring honesty, transparency, and accountability back where it is most sorely needed.” “In whose professional world,” Wallace asks, “is it acceptable to omit the majority of the data and also to not disclose the omission to any other soul or Congressional body?”

The most cited paper for acidification is based on bad science that should be rejectedJames Delingpole, Staff Writer, December 23, 2014, “NOAAGate: How ‘Ocean Acidifcation’ could turn out to be the biggest con since Michael Mann’s hockey stick,” Breitbart News, http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/12/23/noaagate-how-ocean-acidification-could-turn-out-to-be-the-biggest-con-since-michael-manns-hockey-stick/, Accessed 12-27-2014One of NOAA’s departments – the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) – also happens to be one of the mainstays of the alarmist narrative about “ocean acidification.” A 2004 paper by two of PMEL’s senior oceanographers – Dr Richard Feely and Dr Christopher Sabine – is often cited in support of “ocean acidification” theory and is reproduced, in simplified form, at NOAA’s website. It also formed part of testimony that Feely gave to Congress in 2010, again to the effect that increasing atmospheric CO2 is causing a reduction in seawater pH. It warns: “The impacts of ocean acidification on shelled organisms and other animals could negatively affect marine food webs, and, when combined with other climatic changes, could substantially alter the number, variety, and health of ocean wildlife. As humans continue to send more and more carbon dioxide into the oceans, the impacts on marine ecosystems will be direct and profound.” and: “The message is clear: excessive carbon dioxide poses a threat to the health of our oceans.” However, it now seems that the paper’s certainty is at best misplaced, at worst outright dishonest. Not unlike Michael Mann’s discredited Hockey Stick graph it appears to depend on cherry-picked data and misleading projections in defiance of real-world evidence.

Acidification claims are based on selective science and fraudThomas Lifson, Staff Writer, December 25, 2014, “Evidence discovered that 'ocean acidification' scare may be as fraudulent as 'global warming',” American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/12/evidence_discovered_that_ocean_acidification_scare_may_be_ as_fraudulent_as_global_warming.html, Accessed 12-27-2014A startling discovery by a graduate student has uncovered what looks like a fraud remarkably parallel to the infamous “Hockey stick” graph of Michael Mann that purported to show global temperatures skyrocketing when atmospheric CO2 rose, but only did so because “hide the decline” was the operating principle in selecting data. For those who have not been keeping up with the alarmist follies, alleged

ocean acidification has joined and supplemented the rapidly-fading alleged global warming threat as an urgent reason to stop emitting CO2, and hand money and power over to regulators who would control the production of energy, the very basis of modern life.

A2: Ocean Acidification

Freely’s report is the cornerstone of acidification claimsMarita Noon, Executive Director, Energy Makes America Great Inc., December 22, 2014, “Marita Noon discusses an ocean acidification,” Junk Science, http://junkscience.com/2014/12/22/marita-discusses-an-ocean-acidification-research-fraud/, Accessed 12-27-2014Within the Quest text is a link to a chart by Dr. Richard A. Feely, who is a senior scientist with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)—which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Feely’s climate-crisis views are widely used to support the narrative. Feely’s four-page report: Carbon Dioxide and Our Ocean Legacy, offered on the NOAA website, contains a similar chart. This chart, titled “Historical & Projected pH & Dissolved Co2,” begins at 1850. Feely testified before Congress in 2010—using the same data that shows a decline in seawater pH (making it more acidic) that appears to coincide with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. In 2010, Feely received the $100,000 cash prize from the Heinz Family Foundation awards (established by Teresa Heinz, wife of Secretary of State John Kerry). The Heinz award site touts Feely’s work: “Ocean acidity is now considered global warming’s ‘evil twin,’ thanks in large measure to Dr. Feely’s seminal research on the changing ocean chemistry and its impact on marine ecosystems.”

Ocean acidification claims are a fraudJames Delingpole, Staff Writer, December 23, 2014, “NOAAGate: How ‘Ocean Acidifcation’ could turn out to be the biggest con since Michael Mann’s hockey stick,” Breitbart News, http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/12/23/noaagate-how-ocean-acidification-could-turn-out-to-be-the-biggest-con-since-michael-manns-hockey-stick/, Accessed 12-27-2014Ocean acidification is said to be caused when excess atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed by the sea, reducing its pH levels to make it more acidic. But, as Watts Up With That reports new evidence unearthed by an inquisitive graduate student suggests that “ocean acidification” may be a scientific fraud to rank with the great “man-made-global warming” scare. At the centre of the scandal is NOAA, the US federal scientific agency which measures and researches changes in the oceans and atmosphere, and which maintains one of the temperature datasets used to measure “global warming.”

Wallace uncovered acidification fraud and his career was threatenedMarita Noon, Executive Director, Energy Makes America Great Inc., December 22, 2014, “Marita Noon discusses an ocean acidification,” Junk Science, http://junkscience.com/2014/12/22/marita-discusses-an-ocean-acidification-research-fraud/, Accessed 12-27-2014Mike Wallace is a hydrologist with nearly 30 years’ experience, who is now working on his Ph.D. in nanogeosciences at the University of New Mexico. In the course of his studies, he uncovered a startling data omission that he told me: “eclipses even the so-called climategate event.” Feely’s work is based on computer models that don’t line up with real-world data—which Feely acknowledged in email communications with Wallace (which I have read). And, as Wallace determined, there is real world data. Feely, and his coauthor Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, PMEL Director, omitted 80 years of data, which incorporate more than 2 million records of ocean pH levels. Feely’s chart, first mentioned, begins in 1988—which is surprising as instrumental ocean pH data has been measured for more than 100 years since the invention of the glass electrode pH (GEPH) meter. As a hydrologist, Wallace was aware of GEPH’s history and found it odd that the Feely/Sabine work omitted it. He went to the source. The NOAA paper with the chart beginning in 1850 lists Dave Bard, with Pew Charitable Trust, as the contact. Wallace sent Bard an email: “I’m looking in fact for the source references for the red curve in their plot

which was labeled ‘Historical & Projected pH & Dissolved Co2.’ This plot is at the top of the second page. It covers the period of my interest.” Bard responded and suggested that Wallace communicate with Feely and Sabine—which he did over a period of several months. Wallace asked again for the “time series data (NOT MODELING) of ocean pH for 20th century.” Sabine responded by saying that it was inappropriate for Wallace to question their “motives or quality of our science,” adding that if he continued in this manner, “you will not last long in your career.” He then included a few links to websites that Wallace, after spending hours reviewing them, called “blind alleys.” Sabine concludes the email with: “I hope you will refrain from contacting me again.” But communications did continue for several more exchanges.

A2: Ocean Acidification

It’s impossible to accurately measure ocean acidification growthRebecca Solnit, Staff Writer, December 2, 2014, “Are We Missing the Big Picture on Climate Change?,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/magazine/are-we-missing-the-big-picture-on-climate-change.html?_r=0, Accessed 12-20-2014Over all, climate change tends to be reported as abstract explanations about general tendencies and possible outcomes. It’s a difficult subject to tell and to take in. The scientific side is complicated. Understanding it requires the ultimate in systems thinking: the cumulative effect of all of us burning coal and oil impacts things far away and yet to come. A lot of it is hard to see. If you didn’t pay attention to a species beforehand, you won’t have noticed its decline. There’s no direct, tangible way for you to know the ocean is 30 percent more acidic than it used to be, or that it is expected to rise several feet in this century and then keep rising.

“Ghost” Gear

AFF. – GPS Mapping Solvency

Only better GPS mapping can prevent “Ghost gear” from continually killing ocean lifeLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Can Technology Help Clean Up the Oceans?,” Wired, http://www.wired.com/2014/12/can-technology-help-clean-up-the-oceans/, Accessed 12-13-2014In recent years the double whammy of plastic trash and overfishing has drawn more attention to the plight of the world’s oceans. But another problem is that too many fishing vessels dump their gear, mostly fishing nets, which then endanger marine life long after they return to shore. This “ ghost gear ” will remain in the waters for centuries, causing “ghost fishing” that kills even more marine life. Technology, such as improved GPS mapping of the ocean floor, could help make a difference the needless killing of fish and sea mammals.

AFF. – Undermines ocean biodiversity

“Ghost gear” gets left behind to kill fish and sea mammalsLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Ghost Fishing: Time for the Fishing Industry to Clean Up Its Deadly Mess,” http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/behavior_change/leon_kaye/ghost_fishing_time_fishing_industry_clean_its_deadly_mess, Accessed 12-21-2014More and more consumers are aware of overfishing and the effects plastic trash is having on the world’s oceans. Various companies are taking small steps in harvesting ocean garbage and recycling it while organizations such as the Marine Stewardship Council are raising awareness about the importance of sustainably sourced seafood. One problem, however, is still wreaking havoc on fisheries across the world. Unwanted and abandoned fishing equipment such as nets and pots, often called “ghost gear,” often still traps and kills fish and sea mammals long after their final use. The result is “ ghost fishing ,” in which animals end up trapped, injured and often starve to death.

A2: Ghost Gear – International cooperation solving now

International cooperation is acting now to fight ghost gearLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Ghost Fishing: Time for the Fishing Industry to Clean Up Its Deadly Mess,” http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/behavior_change/leon_kaye/ghost_fishing_time_fishing_industry_clean_its_deadly_mess, Accessed 12-21-2014Fortunately, a new coalition of NGOs, government agencies and smaller companies has started an alliance to confront the ghost gear problem. The Global Ghost Gear Initiative (GGGI) gathered together over 40 delegates in Ljubljana, Slovenia, last month to hammer out an agenda for how a multi-stakeholder organization can reverse the damage fishing companies are creating.

A2: Ghost Gear – Solvency deficits

Only greater international cooperation can resolve the ghost gear problemLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Can Technology Help Clean Up the Oceans?,” Wired, http://www.wired.com/2014/12/can-technology-help-clean-up-the-oceans/, Accessed 12-13-2014To that end, over forty delegates recently convened in Slovenia to launch the new Global Ghost Gear Initiative (GGGI). Bringing together NGOs, industry leaders and intergovernmental organizations, GGGI’s aim is to save one million marine animals by 2018. The cost in money and resources is too large to ignore: United Kingdom-based World Animal Protection estimates 640,000 tons of fishing gear, mostly plastic or nylon, are pitched into oceans annually. Just one ghost net can kill $20,000 of Dungeness crab over 10 years. The results are lost economic opportunity and more destruction as unwanted nets, traps and pots harm and kill marine life. NGOs are dedicated to cleaning up the oceans of this killer trash, and some companies are collecting this garbage and recycling it into new products—but they are fighting a losing battle. The complex problem of ghost gear has many moving parts—and more cooperation is needed.

A2: Ghost Gear – Economic incentives CP solvency

We should give economic incentives to fishers for recovering ghost gearThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 13, 2014, “Charting the plastic waters,” http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21635982-amount-plastic-sea-huge-and-widely-spread-charting-plastic, Accessed 12-13-2014Some schemes have been proposed to try to clean up the plastic waste floating in the sea. But it is hardly practical when more than 90% of that rubbish is smaller than a grain of rice and is distributed globally, says Dr Eriksen. Much better, he believes, to prevent plastic getting into the oceans in the first place. Providing better incentives for companies and consumers to recycle plastics would help. Fishermen, he suggests, could be paid to recover gear drifting at sea. But in some cases tougher legislation is probably needed. The Five Gyres Institute, for example, is campaigning to phase out the use of plastic microbeads in facial scrubs and other consumer products in favour of natural alternatives made from such materials as apricot husks. Sewage-treatment plants do not capture all the beads which wash down the drain, so some inevitably end up in the sea. And being so small, no one really knows where they are going.

Action by fishing companies solves and secures long-term industry viabilityLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Ghost Fishing: Time for the Fishing Industry to Clean Up Its Deadly Mess,” http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/behavior_change/leon_kaye/ghost_fishing_time_fishing_industry_clean_its_deadly_mess, Accessed 12-21-2014Ghost gear only adds to the environmental degradation that continues in our oceans, along with plastic debris and overfishing. The world’s fishing companies, along with the brands they own and retailers and restaurant companies to whom they sell, have a huge opportunity to lend their resources to an effort to reverse the destruction going on in our oceans and seas. Not only would these firms improve their overall reputation, but they would also bolster their long-term viability. But continuing to ignore the plight of the oceans will do nothing but sabotage their businesses in the long run.

The fishing industry should act to reduce ghost gearLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Ghost Fishing: Time for the Fishing Industry to Clean Up Its Deadly Mess,” http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/behavior_change/leon_kaye/ghost_fishing_time_fishing_industry_clean_its_deadly_mess, Accessed 12-21-2014World Animal Protection, a British non-profit, estimates 640,000 tons of ghost gear a year becomes lodged into the sea floor or floats across the oceans. This crisis is endemic, from lobster trappers in New England to southeast Asia, where Thailand and Indonesia dominate the region’s fishing industry. On top of this, WWF estimates as much as 85 percent of the world’s fisheries are completely exploited or overfished; the United Nations first brought up this problem almost 30 years ago, but little progress has been made since. Therefore more education and action are desperately needed from the fishing industry.

Mapping

A2: Mapping - New data is accurate

New satellite mapping data means we know twice as muchZachary Slobig, Editor, November 26, 2014, “Will These Stunningly Detailed New Maps of the Seabed Open the Oceans to Mining?,” TakePart, http://www.takepart.com/article/2014/11/26/will-these-stunningly-detailed-new-maps-seabed-open-oceans-mining, Accessed 12-22-2014We know more about the topography of Mars than we do about the contours of the ocean floor on Earth. But now the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego has tapped data collected by satellites to create a map of the sea floor twice as detailed as existing versions. The implications for industry and conservation are broad and possibly contradictory—the more we know about the deepest oceans, the greater the potential for both exploitation and protection. “You could use this data to identify places to protect and preserve,” said David Sandwell, lead author of the Scripps study. On the other hand, the companies racing to scour our ocean floor for precious metals, oil, and gas could use this data to locate targets. Sandwell contends that they still need even higher resolution.

New maps fill the void in mapping dataDeborah Sullivan Brennan, Staff Writer, November 23, 2014, “New map offers deepest detail of ocean depths,” The San Diego Union-Tribune, http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/nov/23/environment-seafloor-map-scripps/, Accessed 12-22-2014A team of scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla and other research centers have released a new map that reveals those deep-water structures with twice the level of detail as previous images. The updated maps, described last month in the journal Science, will inform energy exploration and earthquake research. It also will pinpoint areas for future marine research on the underwater frontier, said David Sandwell, lead scientist on the Science paper and a geophysics professor at Scripps. “The real story is, we know almost nothing about the oceans,” Sandwell said. The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 this year exposed those gaps in knowledge of the ocean’s depths, said Dietmar Muller, a professor of geophysics at the University of Sydney in Australia and a co-author of the new paper. “When someone disappears on land, we have topographic maps that provide a framework for a search,” Muller said. “In the oceans, our maps are so poor in most places that any search is seriously impaired.” The new map fills part of that void.

The ESA has a massive amount of incredibly accurate ocean mapping dataBetaWired, Staff Writer, November 30, 2014, “Precise Ocean Current Mapping From Space Done by the ESA,” http://www.betawired.com/precise-ocean-current-mapping-from-space-done-by-the-esa/1419588/, Accessed 12-23-2014Due to a satellite burn up in the atmosphere last year, the European Space Agency was able to create the most accurate maps of the ocean currents mankind has ever seen. The satellite, called Gravity and Ocean Circulation Explorer, was in orbit for four years and eight months and it reentered the atmosphere in 2013. It provided a massive amount of data to scientists that allows them to create incredibly accurate maps of global ocean currents.

A2: Mapping – Industry action is key

We need mapping, but the industry should do itLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Can Technology Help Clean Up the Oceans?,” Wired, http://www.wired.com/2014/12/can-technology-help-clean-up-the-oceans/, Accessed 12-13-2014What countries all need is an improved visibility of the ocean floor. The Boston Globe has profiled the troubled New England lobster industry, which has been long frustrated by current technology’s inability to locate ghost gear off the northeastern U.S.’s coast. In Indonesia, a boat could be continuing its daily routine, only to graze a reef or rock outcropping no one knew about, even if that knowledgeable fisherman followed generations before him into this line of work. The world’s large fishing companies should take on the responsibility of developing and researching better technology that in the long run, will help sustain the global fishing industry and keep it profitable.

A2: Mapping – Ship sonar better than satellites

Satellite mapping produces poor resolution. Ship-based sonar works much betterJon Copley, Staff Writer, November 6, 2014, “Just How Little Do We Know About The Ocean Floor?,” IFL Science, http://www.iflscience.com/environment/just-how-little-do-we-know-about-ocean-floor, Accessed 12-22-2014So we do actually have a map of 100% of the ocean floor to a resolution of around 5km. From that, we can see the main features of its hidden landscape, such as the mid-ocean ridges and ocean trenches – and, in that sense, the ocean floor is certainly not “95% unexplored”. But that global map of the ocean floor is admittedly less detailed than maps of Mars, the Moon, or Venus, because of our planet’s watery veil. NASA’s Magellan spacecraft mapped 98% of the surface of Venus to a resolution of around 100 metres. The entire Martian surface has also been mapped at that resolution and just over 60% of the Red Planet has now been mapped at around 20m resolution. Meanwhile, selenographers have mapped all of the lunar surface at around 100 metre resolution and now even at seven metre resolution. To map the ocean floor back home in greater detail, we have to use sonar instead of satellites. Modern sonar systems aboard ships can map the ocean floor to a resolution of around 100 metres across a narrow strip below the ship. Those more detailed maps now cover about 10%-15% of the oceans, an area roughly the size of Africa.

Ship-side mapping is more accurate and detailed than satellite dataDeborah Sullivan Brennan, Staff Writer, November 23, 2014, “New map offers deepest detail of ocean depths,” The San Diego Union-Tribune, http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/nov/23/environment-seafloor-map-scripps/, Accessed 12-22-2014The drawback of satellites is that they’re a high-level view of the ocean floor, offering wider coverage but lower detail than the shipside images. According to Newton’s Law, the resolution of the images is equal to the depth of the water, Sandwell said. In three-mile deep seas, the satellite can measure three-mile wide features. Anything closer together would blur into a single image.

Mapping from ships reveals unique ocean informationJon Copley, Staff Writer, November 6, 2014, “Just How Little Do We Know About The Ocean Floor?,” IFL Science, http://www.iflscience.com/environment/just-how-little-do-we-know-about-ocean-floor, Accessed 12-22-2014Mapping from ships at the level of detail achievable by ship’s sonar systems still reveals plenty of surprises. The first phase of searching for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 in the Indian Ocean, which involved mapping from ships to plan future surveys by underwater vehicles, found underwater mountains and other features that were not shown on satellite-derived maps for the area.

A2: Mapping – AUVs are critical

AUVs are critical to detailed information of the ocean floorJon Copley, Staff Writer, November 6, 2014, “Just How Little Do We Know About The Ocean Floor?,” IFL Science, http://www.iflscience.com/environment/just-how-little-do-we-know-about-ocean-floor, Accessed 12-22-2014But if we want to detect things just a few metres in size on the ocean floor, such as the wreckage of missing aircraft or the mineral spires of undersea volcanic vents that my team investigates, we need to take our sonar systems much closer to the sea bed using underwater vehicles or towed instruments. So far, less than 0.05% of the ocean floor has been mapped to that highest level of detail by sonar, which is an area roughly equivalent in size to Tasmania. And of course, actually to see the sea floor using cameras or our own eyes means getting even closer, using remotely operated vehicles or manned submersibles.

Marine Debris / Plastics

Plastics – Studies prove plastics are a major problem

The newest study proves ocean plastic pollution is 10 times worse than we thoughtTia Ghose, Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Awash in Plastic: Oceans May Hold 250,000 Tons of Trash,” Live Science, http://www.livescience.com/49084-ocean-plastic-weight-estimate.html, Accessed 12-13-2014The world's oceans may contain about 10 times more plastic than the most recent studies suggest. The new figure estimates that the oceans hold more than 250,000 tons of trash, a number vastly different from a past estimate, which suggested the oceans' plastic is mysteriously disappearing . Scientists arrived at the new number by combining visual estimates of trash volume with data collected from trawling the oceans with nets, said study co-author Markus Eriksen, director of research for the 5 Gyres Institute, an organization aiming to understand the plastic pollution in the ocean.

The oceans are choking on tons of plasticsNicole Mortillaro, Staff Writer, December 20, 2014, “Why our oceans are choking on our garbage and how we can stop it,” Global News, http://globalnews.ca/news/1721158/why-our-oceans-are-choking-on-our-garbage-and-how-we-can-stop-it/, Accessed 12-20-2014Our oceans make up more than 70 per cent of our planet — and they are choking on our waste. Last week, a study by the 5 Gyres Institute , was published in the online journal PLOS One. It concluded that about 270,000 tons of plastics are floating around our oceans. All of that is broken into 5 trillion pieces, and can be found primarily in gyres, areas of large rotating ocean currents. There are five major gyres on Earth: the Indian Ocean Gyre, North Atlantic Gyre, South Atlantic Gyre, North Pacific Gyre and the South Pacific Gyre. “Of the 5.25 trillion particles, over 90 per cent were micro plastics. Those small, small pieces, smaller than a grain of rice,” said Marcus Eriksen, an environmental scientist and research director of 5 Gyres.

Plastics – Contaminate the food chain

Plastics in the ocean are infesting the entire food chain with chemicalsNicole Mortillaro, Staff Writer, December 20, 2014, “Why our oceans are choking on our garbage and how we can stop it,” Global News, http://globalnews.ca/news/1721158/why-our-oceans-are-choking-on-our-garbage-and-how-we-can-stop-it/, Accessed 12-20-2014Having fish for dinner? You might want to think about where that fish was caught. “The concern now is that these plastics are accumulating in these gyres and they’re found to be more persistent in the marine environment,” said Peter Wells, adjunct professor at the Faculty of Science at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia. “They break down into micro-particles…and there’s concern about food chain uptake.” Fish in our oceans are eating some of that plastic, material that is very good at absorbing some dangerous toxins like DDT and PCBs. Wells, who is also a senior research fellow at the International Ocean Institute , is concerned about food chain impacts as a whole. It’s not just about the fish we’re consuming. It’s about cetaceans (whales), birds and turtles. And the location of the plastic waste couldn’t be worse.

Tiny bits of plastic absorb pollution and concentrate chemicals up the food chainMiyoko Sakashita, Oceans Director, Center for Biological Diversity, December 12, 2014, “Our Oceans Awash in Toxic Plastic Garbage,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miyoko-sakashita/our-oceans-awash-in-toxic_b_6312164.html?utm_hp_ref=green, Accessed 12-13-2014Wrong. These bits of plastic didn't magically disappear -- instead, they have been eaten by fish, turtles and other animals that mistake the particles for food. In addition, many of these tiny pieces have sunk below the surface of the ocean, and either float in the water column where surveys can't reach, or have settled to the bottom where they can be ingested by snails and other bottom feeders. When animals consume plastic, they also consume all the toxins used to create plastic, like BPA, along with all the pollutants in the water that plastics absorb while they float in the ocean. Studies have shown that the concentration of toxic chemicals, such as PCB and DDT, can be up to a million times greater in plastic debris than found in seawater. These chemicals are inherently toxic, and can cause serious physiological damage in animals. And since big fish eat little fish, more organisms ingest plastic particles indirectly via their prey organisms, and concentrate the chemicals up the food chain.

Offshore Wind

AFF. – A2: Wind power kills birds

Fossil fuel and nuclear power plants kill millions more birds than wind powerRebecca Solnit, Staff Writer, December 2, 2014, “Are We Missing the Big Picture on Climate Change?,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/magazine/are-we-missing-the-big-picture-on-climate-change.html?_r=0, Accessed 12-20-2014Supporters of fossil fuel and deniers of climate change love to trade in stories like the one about Ivanpah, individual tales that make renewable energy seem counterproductive, perverse. Stories cannot so readily capture the far larger avian death toll from coal, gas and nuclear power generation. Benjamin Sovacool, an energypolicy expert, looked into the deaths of birds at wind farms (where the blades can chop them down) and concluded that per gigawatt hour, nuclear power plants kill more than twice as many birds and fossil fuel plants kill more than 30 times as many. He noted that over the course of a year fossil fuel plants in the United States actually kill about 24 million birds, compared to 46,000 by wind farms. His calculations factor in climate change as part of their deadly impact.

AFF. – A2: Costs passed on to consumers

Yes, costs will be passed down to consumers but it’s like the price of a cup of coffeeHillary Vaughn, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “America's first offshore wind project hit with waves of controversy,” FoxNews.com, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/18/america-first-offshore-wind-project-hit-with-waves-controversy/, Accessed 12-23-2014Both Sullivan and Bachrach agree that this cost will be passed down to consumers on monthly energy bills, but Bachrach said the cost to consumers is minor. “The price of off-shore wind is higher than natural gas to the utility. But the utility then charging the customer comes to about a buck and a half a month -- the price of a cup of coffee to the average consumer.” Advocates of offshore wind say it’s time for America to catch up to the rest of the world – touting Denmark’s reliance on off-shore wind for 30 percent of its energy needs. But critics say this thinking is out of date, arguing that offshore wind energy made sense in the early 2000’s when dependence on foreign oil made gas prices skyrocket.

AFF. – A2: Avian Collisions

99% of sea birds avoid offshore wind turbines and don’t hurt property valuesJoshua S. Hill, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “99% Of Seabirds Avoid Collision With Offshore Wind Farms,” Clean Technica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/18/99-seabirds-avoid-collision-offshore-wind-farms/, Accessed 12-23-2014The wind turbine has received some of the most heated and angry opposition any technology has had to endure in many years, and as we continue to study the effects of wind turbines and wind farms as a whole, we continue to discover that all of this negative attention has been misplaced. Two recent studies disproved the ideas that wind farms affect health and property values, and now a new review by the British Trust for Ornithology and the University of Highlands and Islands’ Environmental Research Institute has found that 99% of seabirds are likely to alter their flight paths to avoid collision with offshore wind turbines.

A2: Wind – Status Quo solves (general)

The U.S. just opened up over 700,000 acres for offshore wind Bruce Kennedy, Staff Writer, December 11, 2014, “U.S. tapping rich new energy source (and it's not oil),” CBS News, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-tapping-ample-new-energy-source-and-its-not-oil/, Accessed 12-23-2014U.S. oil production may be booming, but America is also hitting another gusher in expanding the nation's energy supplies: wind. Late next month, the U.S. Department of Interior will auction off more than 742,000 acres in the waters off Massachusetts for the development of commercial wind energy. Twelve companies have qualified to take part in the January 29 auction for the Massachusetts Wind Energy Area, located about 12 nautical miles off the Massachusetts coast. The Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) says that, if fully developed, the area could support between 4 and 5 gigawatts of commercial wind energy. That would generate enough electricity to power more than 1.4 million homes.

A2: Wind – The Status Quo Solves (Cape Wind)

Cape Wind will be the catalyst that makes huge offshore wind expansion inevitableOsha Gray Davidson, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “2015: The year wind power moves offshore,” Popular Science, http://www.popsci.com/wind-power-moves-offshore, Accessed 12-23-2014U.S. wind farms currently produce up to 61 gigawatts, but most are located in the center of the country, far from the densely populated coasts. By 2020, proposed off shore projects from Maine to Texas could generate another three gigawatts, says energy consultant Bruce Hamilton—enough to power more than two million homes. The U.S. is a full decade behind the United Kingdom and countries like Denmark in terms of offshore wind development, but that may be about to change, Hamilton says. “Cape Wind’s success will be a signal to the energy industry: Offshore wind has arrived.”

Offshore wind is already booming with business and public support for Cape WindStacy Clark, Environmental geologist, clean energy writer, and teacher, December 8, 2014, “Offshore Winds Soon to Power Cape Cod: Part 3,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stacy-clark/offshore-winds-soon-to-po_2_b_6247456.html, Accessed 12-23-2014Here, Part 3 explores how Cape Wind is catalyzing a new American energy industry that will generate clean electrical power, the jobs that support it, and the commercial businesses that organically grow around both. As New Bedford's city planners and businesses busily prepare to stage the assembly, construction, and installation of Cape Wind's 2015 "steel-in-the-water" deployment, public acceptance of renewable energy's economic significance has increased.

Cape Wind is a massive offshore wind farm that goes online in 2016Osha Gray Davidson, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “2015: The year wind power moves offshore,” Popular Science, http://www.popsci.com/wind-power-moves-offshore, Accessed 12-23-2014When crews begin installing high-voltage cables on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, this year, they’ll be laying the foundation for a new era in renewable energy. The power lines will carry electricity from the nation’s first offshore wind farm, Cape Wind. Starting in late 2016, its 130 massive turbines will provide a quarter-million New England residents with 75 percent of their electricity—saving them a projected $7.2 billion over 25 years.

A2: Wind – No Funding (Cape Wind)

Cape Wind is a financial black hole that siphons taxpayer fundsHillary Vaughn, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “America's first offshore wind project hit with waves of controversy,” FoxNews.com, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/18/america-first-offshore-wind-project-hit-with-waves-controversy/, Accessed 12-23-2014But before Cape Wind can be built, a marine terminal first must be constructed to hold the turbines. And the cost of this separate project, funded by taxpayers in Massachusetts, has shot up by $10 million – estimated to cost state taxpayers, so far, $113 million for the terminal alone. “This ten million is just another crumb that’s being thrown into the black hole of Cape Wind,” said Greg Sullivan, a former inspector general of Massachusetts who now works at the Pioneer Institute in Boston.

Lack of financial backing continually delays Cape WindBruce Mohl, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Is Cape Wind running out of time?,” Commonwealth, http://www.commonwealthmagazine.org/News-and-Features/Online-exclusives/2014/Fall/062-Is-Cape-Wind-running-out-of-time.aspx#.VJm5hV4AL8, Accessed 12-23-2014Cape Wind officials, who several months ago were confidently predicting financing for the offshore wind farm would be wrapped up by the end of this year, are now saying they need more time. The big question is whether there’s enough of it. Cape Wind spokesman Mark Rodgers said in an emailed statement that a financial closing won’t occur this year. “After Cape Wind achieved long-awaited major victories in federal court in March, we planned to reach a financial closing on the project by the end of this year. For a project of this magnitude, we have concluded additional time will be required to achieve this objective,” he said.

Court Documents prove Cape Wind won’t have financing until at least after 2015Bruce Mohl, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Is Cape Wind running out of time?,” Commonwealth, http://www.commonwealthmagazine.org/News-and-Features/Online-exclusives/2014/Fall/062-Is-Cape-Wind-running-out-of-time.aspx#.VJm5hV4AL8, Accessed 12-23-2014While Rodgers said Cape Wind was working hard to make the wind farm a reality, court documents filed earlier by the company’s president indicate that may not be possible. In a court affidavit filed in July, Cape Wind President Jim Gordon said financing on the project needed to close by the end of September 2014 to have a chance at beginning construction on the project before a critical Dec. 31 deadline next year. The wind farm relies on two power purchase contracts with National Grid and NStar that expire on Dec. 31 next year unless Cape Wind has started “physical installation” into the seabed of equipment “integral to the assembly of the wind turbine generation units,” according to Gordon’s affidavit. He said it would take 12 to 14 months from the completion of financing to fabricate, deliver, and commence installation. With the financing package not completed yet, meeting the Dec. 31 deadline may not be possible.

A2: Wind – General Answers (Cape Wind)

Cape Wind is already going over-budget and construction hasn’t begunHillary Vaughn, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “America's first offshore wind project hit with waves of controversy,” FoxNews.com, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/18/america-first-offshore-wind-project-hit-with-waves-controversy/, Accessed 12-23-2014America’s first-ever offshore wind farm is going over-budget before construction even begins, critics say. The $2.6 billion Cape Wind project, a private project benefiting from millions in federal subsidies, plans to pioneer offshore wind energy in pursuit of an eco-friendly, sustainable energy supply. Wind turbines typically seen onshore will be installed offshore on the coast of Cape Cod in Nantucket Sound.

Cape Wind is in shambles and without fundingTrade Only Today, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “Cape Cod wind farm project struggles with financing,” http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/2014/12/cape-cod-wind-farm-project-struggles-financing/, Accessed 12-22-2014Cape Wind, the massive wind farm planned for construction off Massachusetts’ Cape Cod, won’t close on financing by the end of the year as company officials had hoped. This is a prospect that has opponents of the project feeling more positive about their prospects for stopping it altogether. “Sounds like Cape Wind is clearly in trouble,” Audra Parker, president of the project’s primary opposition group, the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, told the Cape Cod Times. “This is a developer, a private developer, that’s struggled for almost five years now to put full financing together, even with high-priced contracts and guaranteed revenue in hand.”

A2: Wind – General Answers (Costs)

The plan cannot solve because it doesn’t reauthorize the 30% tax credit Dan Renshaw, President, Sea Breeze Energy, December 1, 2014, “Question of the Week: Will US offshore wind prosper?,” Wind Power Monthly, http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1324410/question-week-will-us-offshore-wind-prosper, Accessed 12-23-2014In addition to cost reduction, various levels of federal and state government support will be necessary to move the industry forward. This includes reauthorising the 30% investment tax credit for offshore wind, and specific offshore wind requirements within the renewable portfolio standard. The federal government's recent actions concerning carbon dioxide emission reductions will lead to further consideration of offshore wind as an alternative, but any effects are likely to be long term.

Offshore wind energy costs higher and overburdens taxpayersHillary Vaughn, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “America's first offshore wind project hit with waves of controversy,” FoxNews.com, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/18/america-first-offshore-wind-project-hit-with-waves-controversy/, Accessed 12-23-2014While taking turbines offshore allows them to harness more wind power, it comes with a cost. And critics like Sullivan say taxpayers are over-paying for a technology that will supply only a fraction of energy needed at a higher cost. “It’s so much more expensive than regular onshore turbines. It’s far more expensive than regular electricity,” he said. The over-budget marine terminal is just the latest example, for detractors, of the project’s rising price tag. “It’s all being paid for by people’s electric bill every month and hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies. It's just so much money that’s coming from federal tax payers not just in Massachusetts,” Sullivan said. “The estimates for the completion of Cape Wind have more than doubled since it was first proposed.”

Offshore wind won’t significantly expand without massive cost reductionsDan Renshaw, President, Sea Breeze Energy, December 1, 2014, “Question of the Week: Will US offshore wind prosper?,” Wind Power Monthly, http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1324410/question-week-will-us-offshore-wind-prosper, Accessed 12-23-2014Offshore technological improvements are helping to reduce the cost of power today, but more work will be needed to bring the cost of offshore wind closer to competing technologies. Larger turbines and longer blade lengths allowing for more wind capture are increasing efficiency, but turbine installation costs remain high. Unfortunately the US lacks the economies of scale and installation experience of Europe, so achieving cost reductions here will be difficult.

The UK proves offshore wind will fail and exploits taxpayersBarbara Durkin, Staff Writer, December 6, 2014, “Offshore wind farms are no public benefit,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/226050-offshore-wind-farms-are-no-public-benefit, Accessed 12-23-2014While U.S. energy policy should address the needs of citizens for reliable energy sources that are commercially reasonable and reasonably safe, offshore wind has historically failed to deliver these public benefits to Europeans. UK’s offshore wind energy projects' results should serve as the catalyst for termination by the administration of its proposed ocean auction to wind limited liabilities corporations. U.S. rate and taxpayers are unacceptably exposed by this administration’s blind eye to the UK’s failed

offshore wind program. Neither the ocean area the federal government holds in trust for U.S. citizens, nor U.S. citizens themselves, should be exploited by an industry that historically fails to deliver public benefits.

A2: Wind – Avian collisions (new report false)

New bird avoidance reports are incomplete and leave too many questions openAri Phillips, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “Birds Are Avoiding Offshore Wind Farms, Study Finds,” Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/18/3605149/birds-offshore-wind-turbines-changing-course/, Accessed 12-23-2014A new report by a leading bird research institute in the U.K. found that over 99 percent of seabirds were likely to alter their flight paths in order to avoid collision with offshore wind farms. While the analysis offers new estimates of which seabirds and what percentage change course to avoid wind turbines, it still leaves many questions about the overall impacts of wind turbines — on and offshore — on bird populations.

CPs & Disadvantages /Answers

Artificial Reefs Disadvantage Answers

Artificial reefs are inevitable

Massive artificial reefs are inevitable and being built nowHeather Alexander, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “18,000 tons of concrete will form massive new artificial reef in the Gulf of Mexico,” Houston Chronicle, http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/18-000-tons-of-concrete-will-form-massive-new-5961024.php, Accessed 12-21-2014Thousands of tons of concrete is being prepared to be placed at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico as restoration workers plan what they say will be the largest artificial reef in the western hemisphere. The reef is the brain child of the cities of Marco and Naples, Florida, as well as Collier County, also on Florida's Gulf coast, and will cost more than $1.5 million. Funding came in the form of a grant from B.P. Deep Water Horizon restoration money plus some private donations. It's hoped that the end result will garner upwards of $30 million a year in revenue for the area. "It's the largest project in the western hemisphere as far as building 36 reefs at the same time," said Diane Flagg of the area's Economic Recovery Task Force. The 36 individual reefs will be placed in groups of six to form a huge reef system which could give a real boost to the local marine ecosystem. On top of that, it could have a wide ranging impact across the Gulf with organizers suggesting that the reefs will provide safe habitat for young sport fish, popular with fishing enthusiasts across the Gulf.

Florida’s artificial reef is being built and will be an entire square quarter mileEric M. Davis, The Editor-in-Chief, December 16, 2014, “Coming Soon: Largest Artificial Reef in the Western Hemisphere,” http://www.awesomeocean.com/2014/12/16/coming-soon-largest-artificial-reef-western-hemisphere/, Accessed 12-21-2014On January 8th, a project to create the largest man-made reef in the Western Hemisphere will begin off the coast of Florida. Marco Island, known for its world class beaches, will soon feature a world class reef. Once completed, the reef will be one quarter mile by one quarter mile. Not only will the reef serve as home and shelter for various species of marine life, it will generate large amounts of tourism revenue for the surrounding Florida counties. “A 2011 Sea Grant study of six coastal counties in Florida found that the users of artificial reefs created 2,600 jobs that generated $253 million annually for those counties,” said Nancy Richie, Marco Island’s environmental specialist.

China Disadvantage / Answers

Uniqueness – Energy / Sphere of influence

China is using cooperation to secure its sphere of influence now. U.S. interference risks all-out warTimothy Heath, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “China’s Big Diplomacy Shift,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-big-diplomacy-shift/, Accessed 12-28-2014As Chinese power grows, and should its efforts to consolidate its leadership of the Asia-Pacific region succeed, China’s tolerance for Western “interference” on sensitive policy topics will decline even further. Beijing will also likely push harder to consolidate its leadership of Asia and step up demands for reforms in the international order to more fairly reflect the changing distribution of power. Should Beijing lose confidence in cooperation as the means to secure such accommodation, the temptation to explore more coercive options could prove difficult to resist. In a situation of intensifying rivalry and distrust, an exasperated United States could well find itself driven to increasingly escalatory measures to ward off PRC behavior it finds threatening to its interests.

The U.S. is currently staying clear of China’s offshore energy sphere of influenceBill Richardson, Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Does China’s Quest for Energy Security Threaten the United States?,” Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/10/does-chinas-quest-for-energy-security-threaten-the-united-states/, Accessed 12-21-2014China’s designation of disputed waters in the South China Sea as its main offshore site for natural gas exploration has also heightened tensions with the Philippines and Vietnam, both U.S. allies. China’s dispute with Japan in the East China Sea over the sovereignty of the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands remains unresolved despite the agreement reached in November to de-escalate the situation; the desire to exploit nearby offshore energy reserves remains a key driver of this row. The United States has played a delicate balancing game in both disputes, careful to publicly diffuse tensions and not upset Beijing while simultaneously reiterating support for our key allies in the region like Japan and the Philippines.

China just shifted priority in relations toward its sphere of influence away from the U.S.Timothy Heath, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “China’s Big Diplomacy Shift,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-big-diplomacy-shift/, Accessed 12-28-2014China’s decision to elevate in priority its relationship with its neighbors over that with the United States and other great powers, confirmed at the recently concluded Central Work Conference on Foreign Relations, heralds a major shift in its diplomacy. The decision reflects Beijing’s assessment that relations with countries in Asia and with rising powers will grow more important role in facilitating the nation’s revitalization than relations with the developed world. This suggests that over time, China may grow even less tolerant of Western interference in PRC interests and more confident in consolidating control of its core interests and pressing demands to reform the international order. Washington may need to step up coordination with its Asian partners to encourage Chinese behavior that upholds, rather than challenges, the principle tenets of the international order.

Uniqueness – Energy / Sphere of influence

China is solidifying its sphere of influence and resistance to U.S. influenceTimothy Heath, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “China’s Big Diplomacy Shift,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-big-diplomacy-shift/, Accessed 12-28-2014Nevertheless, the conclusion by Chinese analysts that the periphery and developing nations will overshadow in importance the developed world carries major implications for international politics. The change in the general framework shows just how much this assessment now informs PRC foreign policy. European countries have already discovered how little Beijing cares for their views of PRC policies. China has not only rejected criticisms on human rights issues, it has retaliated with punitive measures against EU nations, as it did to the United Kingdom over meetings with the Dalai Lama and to Norway over its recognition of dissident Liu Xiaobo. Similarly, China has shown itself increasingly resistant to U.S. criticisms of its behavior. Beijing has dismissed Washington’s criticism of its reclamation and other efforts to consolidate its claims in the South China Sea. Nor is China slowing down its efforts to build alternative institutions and mechanisms to assert its regional leadership of Asia. U.S. demands that China curb its cyber espionage have similarly yielded little fruit.

China is engaging in creeping authoritarianism for influence

China uses economic leverage to stifle democracy in favor of authoritarianismRebecca Liao, a corporate attorney and China analyst, December 19, 2014, “Beware of Chinese Hegemony,” The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/beware-chinese-hegemony-11896, Accessed 12-20-2014Second, even without explicit economic coercion, China is starting to mold its patron countries into its own image of authoritarian capitalism. This is especially pronounced in Central Asian governments, particularly the regimes of Nazarbayev’s Kazahstan and Karimov’s Uzbekistan. And despite their democratic ambitions, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Venezuela Argentina and many other recipients of Chinese dollars are all leaning towards statist models of development. Most importantly, China’s largest foreign policy goal is to realize the China dream. Echoing Xi, Li Keqiang, China’s premier, has stated that China must pursue the “strategic goal of achieving the great renewal of the Chinese nation.” While many Asian countries are still happily signing trade agreements with the Middle Kingdom, they remain concerned about a return to the Imperial tributary system. The emperor rarely interfered, but there was an understanding that China was owed deference and political loyalty. To be sure, China's ambitions should be encouraged if the calculus that much of the developing world has made is correct. Economic development comes before any other considerations. Being part of the Beijing sphere of influence is a small price to pay if it means importing the success of the China model.

Even military-to-military cooperation has not moderated Chinese creeping authoritarianismShannon Tiezzi, Staff Writer, December 19, 2014, “US-China Military Relations: The Great Debate,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/us-china-military-relations-the-great-debate/, Accessed 12-27-2014One such voice of caution comes from Congressman J. Randy Forbes (R-VA), the leader of the House Armed Services Committee’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. In an open letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, Rep. Forbes expressed a “growing concern with the overall trajectory to the military-to-military relationship” between the U.S. and China. Though Forbes noted that he believes “a sustained and substantive relationship with the PRC is one of the core objectives of U.S. policy” in the Asia-Pacific region, he questioned the utility of the current approach to mil-to-mil relations. “There is no indication that more engagement has helped to shape Beijing’s actions in a positive direction consistent with U.S. objectives,” Forbes argued. “To the contrary, as we have increased our mil-to-mil engagement over the past two years, China’s actions have only turned more coercive.”

Chinese soft power represents creeping authoritarianismRebecca Liao, a corporate attorney and China analyst, December 19, 2014, “Beware of Chinese Hegemony,” The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/beware-chinese-hegemony-11896, Accessed 12-20-2014China is in danger of reviving that tradition of exporting its take on authoritarianism. Granted, its methods are much more subtle. In place of the Soviet demand for twinning, China requires loyalty in matters of foreign affairs, which often means foregoing true democracy. The country has (sincerely) insisted that, unlike the West, it is opposed to interference in the internal affairs of others. However, a bet that China will succeed in bringing about true multilateralism where the Pax-America order has failed will prove to be a fantasy.

South China Seas – High risk of escalation

There’s a high risk of escalation in the South China SeasAustin Ramzy, Staff Writer, December 19, 2014, “China Protests Planned U.S. Sale of Warships to Taiwan,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/world/asia/china-protests-planned-us-sale-of-warships-to-taiwan.html?_r=0, Accessed 12-27-2014As a result, the SCS, in terms of the overlapping and contentious claims to sovereignty as well as energy security, is most likely to feature more heavily on the global agenda. The parties have been trying their best to keep the sovereignty debate within the field of diplomacy. However, at the same time, tensions regarding China’s claims to the SCS, particularly with regard to opposition posed by Vietnam and the Philippines, have exhibited a tendency of escalation in recent years. This situation may accelerate the development of the proposed military alliance between Vietnam and the Philippines, who feel that they are not strong enough in the face of the Chinese Navy. Considering this, it would not be a coincidence if the Philippines were to seek to expand its security cooperation with the US while Vietnam does the same to deepen its strategic relationship with the US.

A2: China – Sphere of influence uniqueness/internal link ans.

Obama’s Cuba change directly undermined China’s maritime sphere of influenceRowan Callick, Asia Pacific Editor, December 11, 2014, “Pragmatism is key determinant of US-China relations,” Irish Times, http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/pragmatism-is-key-determinant-of-us-china-relations-1.2026264, Accessed 12-27-2014The real reason for president Barack Obama to open relations with Cuba is to prevent China's PLA Navy from using the nation as a submarine base in the future, reports KT McFarland, a national security analyst, in an article written for Fox News. Obama has made the right move by establishing official relations with Cuba, she said. However, Obama has not told the public the truth as to why he decided to act. The United States is revising its policy on withdrawing diplomatic recognition of Fidel Castro's Cuba in 1961, to prevent similar mistakes in the future, she said. Neither Russia nor China has a major military presence in North America yet. If the United States continues its hostility towards Cuba, Havana will eventually invite Beijing and Moscow to establish a military base there, she said. Russia already signed a series of agreements to develop Cuba's offshore oil deposits during president Vladimir Putin's visit to the nation on May, a sign of the urgency with which the US needs to ensure that Cuba does not become a Russian or Chinese pawn in the region.

China and the US are diametrically opposed on a number of security issues that outweigh the planDean Cheng, Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, December 12, 2014, “The Option for U.S.–China Cooperation in Antarctica,” Heritage Foundation, Issue Brief #4318 on Alliances, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/12/the-option-for-uschina-cooperation-in-antarctica, Accessed 12-20-2014The U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have diametrically opposed interests on several critical issues, particularly outside the economic sphere. Taiwan’s defense, freedom of the seas, and American advocacy for universal liberal democratic values are just a few. There is no prospect that the two governments will come to an agreement on any of these political and security issues in the near or even medium term. However, there are other limited areas, physically far from Chinese sensitivities, where agreement and cooperation are possible. One example is anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. Another could be scientific cooperation in Antarctica. The Obama Administration ought to explore these possibilities as a means of promoting mutually beneficial cooperation.

China’s sphere of influence over energy is only in its immediate regionBill Richardson, Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Does China’s Quest for Energy Security Threaten the United States?,” Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/10/does-chinas-quest-for-energy-security-threaten-the-united-states/, Accessed 12-20-2014China’s new energy demands have equally impacted its approach to working with international energy producers as well. In the last several years, overseas Chinese energy companies have actively acquired assets in various countries. A flurry of diplomatic activity and official visits to and from Beijing usually precede such moves. This further demonstrates Beijing’s use of its foreign policy as a tool to secure its energy demand, while further gaining global influence by building interdependent relationships with energy exporting countries. This trend is set to continue as China’s national energy companies continue purchasing assets in the Middle East, the Americas, Africa, and Asia. According to a report by the CNPC Economic Technology Research Institute, a subsidiary of the oil behemoth China National Petroleum Corporation, Chinese energy companies invested an estimated $34 billion in overseas assets in 2012.

Beijing is skillfully and pragmatically trying to assert its global influence and assemble allies in order to build strategic geopolitical alliances and partnerships to secure a steady supply of energy from proven and potential offshore sources, as well as to control maritime activity in its immediate region. However, this competition for resources is raising alarm among neighboring countries.

A2: China – Sphere of influence uniqueness/internal link ans.

U.S. Cuba policy was a shift to solidify U.S., not Chinese, influence in Latin AmericaRodolfo C. Severino, former Asean Secretary-General and a retired Philippine diplomat, is the head of the Asean Studies Centre in the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, December 22, 2014, “US-Cuba thaw and China-Asia ties,” Straits Times, http://www.straitstimes.com/news/opinion/more-opinion-stories/story/us-cuba-thaw-and-china-asia-ties-20141222, Accessed 12-27-2014Zhou Zhiwei, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences institution of Latin America Studies, said the US has paid a lot of attention to the Asia-Pacific area while losing its geopolitical advantages. "With the rise of China and other BRICs countries, America's presence in Latin America is becoming less prominent," said Zhou. (BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China.) China has replaced the US as the largest trading partner and investor in many Latin American countries, which makes the US move toward Cuba a practical one, Zhou noted. "Not only is it a sign of ending Cold War hostility, but also a signal that the US will keep up its relations with its neighboring countries in Latin America," Zhou said.

The U.S. and China are already engaged in a sphere of influence conflict in the South China SeasMichelle FlorCruz, Staff Writer, November 24, 2014, “China And US Face Off Over South China Sea Artificial Island: US, Neighbors See It As Threat,” International Business Times, http://www.ibtimes.com/china-us-face-over-south-china-sea-artificial-island-us-neighbors-see-it-threat-1728548, Accessed 12-20-2014Though economic cooperation between China and the U nited States was cemented after the A sia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing, military interests in the South China Sea are at odds. New reports on China’s controversial artificial islands in the disputed waters near the Spratly Islands shed light on an area where both nations are far from cooperating. A report released Saturday by IHS Jane’s Defense stated China’s military has been dredging the resource-rich ocean for the past three months to create a man-made island about 3,000 meters (9,842 feet) long and roughly 200- to 300 meters (656- to 984 feet) wide sitting in the Fiery Cross Reef, or what China calls the Yongshu Reef through satellite imagery. The report triggered alarm for all of those with vested interests in the South China Sea, like the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam, countries that lay claim to areas of the Spratlys, as well as the U.S., a military ally of the Philippines that also has increased attention to the Pacific Rim as part of the “Asia pivot.”

A2: Relations (non-unique)

China just criticized the U.S. for arms sales to TaiwanAustin Ramzy, Staff Writer, December 19, 2014, “China Protests Planned U.S. Sale of Warships to Taiwan,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/world/asia/china-protests-planned-us-sale-of-warships-to-taiwan.html?_r=0, Accessed 12-27-2014China sharply criticized on Friday a decision by Washington to sell four used warships to Taiwan, the self-ruled island it considers part of its territory. President Obama signed legislation on Thursday approving the sale of four Hazard Perryclass guidedmissile frigates, the first military hardware sale to Taiwan since 2011, when the United States transferred upgrades to F16 fighter jets. A spokesman for China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, Qin Gang, said Friday during a regularly scheduled news conference that China “is firmly opposed to the arms sales by the U.S. to Taiwan.” He added that the warship transfer “brutally interferes in China’s domestic affairs and undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests.”

A2: Relations (resilient)

Sino-U.S. relations are resilientDavid Shambaugh, Professor of Political Science & International Affairs and Director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, November 14, 2014, “A Step Forward in US-China Ties,” China-US Focus, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/a-step-forward-in-us-china-ties/, Accessed 12-27-2014Whether or not the two sides agree to an overarching framework or catchphrase to describe the relationship, the 2014 Beijing summit seems to have temporarily arrested the hemorrhaging that many analysts have perceived over the past five years. A similar stabilization occurred following former President Hu Jintao’s 2011 state visit to Washington, only for the relationship to return to a downward trajectory and heightened tensions within months. It remains to be seen if the same pattern occurs this time. To be certain, the United States and China have a wide range of differences and difficulties, while the competitive dynamic has eclipsed the cooperative element in recent years—yet it remains imperative that the two governments do what they can to manage the competition, buffer the tensions, while trying to broaden the arenas of tangible cooperation between them and together with other nations. The U.S.-China relationship certainly has its difficulties, but it is a marriage in which divorce is not an option.

U.S-China conflicts are inevitable, but ongoing mil-to-mil cooperation mitigateShannon Tiezzi, Staff Writer, December 19, 2014, “US-China Military Relations: The Great Debate,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/us-china-military-relations-the-great-debate/, Accessed 12-27-2014Despite emphasizing the value of a cooperative military-to-military relationship with China, Adm. Harris wasn’t shy about pointing out areas where the U.S. disagrees with China’s security moves. He criticized China’s unilateral establishment of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea as “not the action of a great nation.” Adm. Harris also praised the Philippines for seeking international arbitration over China’s South China Sea claims, despite China’s vocal condemnations of the case. U.S. criticisms of Chinese maneuvers aren’t going anywhere – nor are Chinese complaints about U.S. behavior. But at the same time, U.S.-China military relations will continue to pick up speed, through joint talks, joint exercises, and exchanges. And that’s all to the good.

Despite inevitable disagreements, the Obama-Xi accords provides CBMs that secure long-terms relationsMel Gurtov, Staff Writer, December 23, 2014, “China’s Triangle Diplomacy,” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-triangle-diplomacy/5421356, Accessed 12-27-2014Besides climate change, the Obama-Xi meeting produced quite a number of other accords that are noteworthy. These are confidence-building measures to avoid potential air or naval confrontations, visa extension that will facilitate people-to-people exchanges, and broadening of trade in information technology. Needless to say, plenty of contentious issues remain unsettled besides the South China Sea territorial dispute, such as cyber hacking, human rights, and free-trade agreements in Asia. But on balance, the US-China agenda moved forward rather than backward as a result of the Obama-Xi meeting.

A2: Relations (resilient)

Sino-U.S. relations are on a reset. Inevitable conflicts, including maritime, will be handled through dialogueDavid Ignatius, associate editor and columnist for the Washington Post, December 19, 2014, “Does diplomatic progress signify relations 'reset' between US, China?,” China Post, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/special-to-the-china-post/2014/12/19/ 424414/Does-diplomatic.htm, Accessed 12-27-2014This year began with some Chinese and American foreign-policy analysts looking back a century to World War I and wondering if confrontation was inevitable between a rising power and a dominant one. But now there has been progress on climate, trade and security issues and what seems a modest “reset” of the Sino-American relationship. Future disagreements between the U.S. and China are inevitable. But the surprise of a high-level dialogue here last weekend was the interest by both sides in exploring what the Chinese like to call “win-win” cooperation. “I don't believe there will be a military confrontation between the two countries,” insisted one of China's top American experts, who not long ago was warning about strains in the relationship. Recent disputes over maritime boundaries in the East and South China Seas are “not particularly dangerous,” said another prominent Chinese scholar.

China’s foreign policy will rely on soft power. Relations are strongMel Gurtov, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University, December 23, 2014, “China’s Triangle Diplomacy,” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-triangle-diplomacy/5421356, Accessed 12-27-2014Another element in this “live and let live” moment in US-China relations is Xi’s renewed emphasis on soft power and promotion of China’s unique approach to international affairs. In a recent speech to a party work conference on foreign affairs, Xi proposed “six commitments” or “persistents” (liuge jianchi: 六个坚 持): peaceful coexistence, an end to great-power domination, opposition to the use of force and intervention, “win-win” approaches to international issues, aid to developing countries, and “never sacrificing the country’s core interests.” To be sure, these are standard Chinese foreign-policy themes of recent years. What is significant is that they are now presented as “China’s special characteristics for great-power foreign policy,” according to the foreign ministry. It is Xi’s way of proclaiming that China, far from accepting junior-partner status with the US in international affairs, has its own doctrine in the competition for regional and global influence . China’s forceful assertion of its interests in the South and East China Seas shows that it intends to back doctrine with power.

A2: China – China won’t use force for sphere of influence

China is appealing to multilateralism to entice countries into its sphere of influenceOndřej Macháček, Staff Writer for The Institute of Asian Studies, December 5, 2014, “Is China the new leading goose?,” Institute of Asian Studies , http://www.asian.sk/is-china-the-new-leading-goose/, Accessed 12-20-2014Economic leadership was one of the main points for Mr. Xi even before the APEC meeting this November. China introduced the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the “Silk Road” fund to help revitalize its surroundings, and while it may bring the countries to the Beijing’s sphere of influence it will also shape them the way considered necessary. The establishment of the AIIB last month was a conclusion of a Xi Jinping’s initiative first publicly introduced during the last year’s APEC Summit. Although everyone agrees on the huge financial needs to develop infrastructure in this region (which would keep it economically running), in the West, most attention was drawn to the fact that it may serve Beijing as a geopolitical tool. Chinese share in the registered capital of 100 billion dollars the bank possesses is a narrow half. Of course, from the critic’s perspective, the stronger voice China has over investment projects, the stronger position in the region it gets. On the other hand though, as Paramerswaran over at The Diplomat suggests, “Big, Bad Anti-American Bank” may be catchy headlines, but they do not explain why 20 other nations joined this project voluntarily. In the end, the Japanese introduction of the ADB in the 60’s was regarded with comparable amount of suspicion as well. Either way, whereas Chinese investment and bilateral deals abroad attracted quite some misgivings about Chinese aims, this time the Middle Kingdom is trying to reach the central position via multilateral means.

China is peacefully settling sphere of influence disputes with calm diplomacyReuters, Staff Writer, December 27, 2014, “China, Vietnam to address maritime disputes without using 'megaphone diplomacy:' Xinhua,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/27/us-china-vietnam-southchinasea-idUSKBN0K506720141227, Accessed 12-27-2014Senior Chinese and Vietnamese officials have agreed to settle their maritime disputes without resorting to "megaphone diplomacy", the official Xinhua news service said on Saturday. The agency's report follows a meeting in Hanoi on Friday between Chinese political advisor Yu Zhengsheng and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, and it comes as Beijing backs off from aggressive attempts to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea. "Megaphone diplomacy can only trigger volatility in public opinion, which should be avoided by both sides," the report quoted Yu as saying.

A2: China – A2: Counterbalancing

China is already counter-balancing with Russia to expand its sphere of influenceDavid Oualaalou, PhD., International Security Lecturer and a visiting professor of government at McLennan Community College, Staff Writers, December 15, 2014, “US Era of Dominance Is Dwindling as China Takes Over the World Economy,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-oualaalou/us-era-of-dominance-is-dw_b_6299040.html, Accessed 12-20-2014While the U.S. is enmeshed in its political squabbling as a result of the paralysis of Congress, China and Russia are strengthening their economic ties with military cooperation on the horizon. This cooperation provides China a historical opportunity to expand its sphere of influence; thus, compelling Washington to reconsider its Geo-strategic calculations for Asia.

China will exploit diplomatic consolidation to undermine the U.S. to avoid warTimothy Heath, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “China’s Big Diplomacy Shift,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/chinas-big-diplomacy-shift/, Accessed 12-28-2014Moreover, China realizes it must secure its geostrategic flanks to prepare the country’s ascent into the upper echelons of global power. Chinese leaders are deeply aware of historical precedents in which aspirants to regional dominance in Asia and Europe fell victim to wars kicked off by clashes involving neighboring powers. The persistence of disputes and flashpoints in the East and South China Seas makes this danger vividly real for Chinese policymakers. Finding ways to consolidate China’s influence and weaken potentially threats, such as the U.S. alliance system , offers for China hope of greater security. In the words of Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, the “imbalance between Asia’s political security and economic development has become an increasingly prominent issue.” China’s proposal to create an Asian “ community of shared destiny ” aims to resolve this imbalance.

China is trying to create an economic pole in the Asia-Pacific for a regional blocOndřej Macháček, Staff Writer for The Institute of Asian Studies, December 5, 2014, “Is China the new leading goose?,” Institute of Asian Studies , http://www.asian.sk/is-china-the-new-leading-goose/, Accessed 12-20-2014At the time when Asia-Pacific, with its multiple multilateral negotiations, stands on a cross-road of self-understanding over who should be included in regional economic integration, Beijing does not want to be left out. Quite to the contrary, it wants to play the key role. China, within the last month, let other nations know its will to become a new head of the “Flying geese” flock. Indeed, as other countries in the region deem it hard to find common ground, China recently made strenuous efforts to become the center around which the others could revolve. Whereas the original concept of “flying geese” refers to a metaphor of structural transformation and industrialization based on learning from more developed geese, it also suggests the economic leadership in the region. Formerly, this leader was Japan. Beijing now aspires to this position.

China is the new global economic power and U.S. global leadership is decliningDavid Oualaalou, PhD., International Security Lecturer and a visiting professor of government at McLennan Community College, Staff Writers, December 15, 2014, “US Era of Dominance Is Dwindling as China Takes Over the World Economy,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-oualaalou/us-era-of-dominance-is-dw_b_6299040.html, Accessed 12-20-2014Most Americans might have not heard about the International Monetary Fund (IMF) latest announcement: The U.S. is no longer the world largest economy; China is. Be that as it may, I am

not surprised that China took over the world economy as the era of American economic dominance and global leadership has been gradually declining in the last decade or so. Against this backdrop, I am wondering what it means for the future of our nation. What's important to highlight is how the rise of China, which has been in the works for quite sometimes, should remind us, Americans, of the inevitable shift in world order. This new shift highlights two things: One, China's takeover of the world economy confirms the shift of wealth from the West to the East; and two, whether China's new economic ranking suggests the inevitable expansion of its military power. Whatever, the case might be, the important fact about this change, in my opinion, is contributed to two factors (a) China's long-term vision, and (b) its ability to craft an economic and financial strategies decades ago that led to this outcome.

A2: War – China will be pragmatic

China will act pragmatically and less confrontationalDavid Ignatius, associate editor and columnist for the Washington Post, December 19, 2014, “Does diplomatic progress signify relations 'reset' between US, China?,” China Post, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/special-to-the-china-post/2014/12/19/ 424414/Does-diplomatic.htm, Accessed 12-27-2014The Chinese are nothing if not pragmatic about their interests, and the less confrontational stance may reflect Beijing's recognition that China is a little weaker economically and America a bit stronger than might have been predicted a year ago. The American century isn't over yet, as Joseph Nye, a Harvard professor who helped organize the conference, points out in a forthcoming book.

A2: Sino-Russian Alliance

Any risk of a Sino-Russian alliance against the U.S. is overblownMel Gurtov, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University, December 23, 2014, “China’s Triangle Diplomacy,” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-triangle-diplomacy/5421356, Accessed 12-27-2014In a word, notions of a new Sino-Russian entente that spells trouble for the US and its allies seem overblown. Beijing and Moscow are more united by what they oppose—namely, aggressive US foreign policy—than by a common agenda. Neither China nor Russia has powerful allies, so Xi and Putin mute their criticisms and trumpet their ties—two authoritarian regimes that are busy clamping down on domestic dissent. Nevertheless, as US conduct of the strategic triangle in Nixon’s time showed, diplomacy is almost inevitably uneven with respect to the two other sides of the triangle. Then, US relations with the USSR were far more important to Washington—but also more hostile—than relations with China. Today, China’s relations with the US are far more important to Beijing than relations with Russia, as evidenced by China’s deep regional and global involvement in the capitalist order, of which huge commercial and financial ties to the US are a major part.

A2: China – Cooperation solves (permutation)

U.S.-China energy cooperation solves China’s coal problem and advanced U.S. influence in the regionBill Richardson, Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Does China’s Quest for Energy Security Threaten the United States?,” Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/10/does-chinas-quest-for-energy-security-threaten-the-united-states/, Accessed 12-21-2014Despite the “pivot” to Asia, Washington has not adequately increased its influence in the region — especially where energy is concerned. And China’s energy security should be a concern for the United States. Washington and Beijing must find ways to better cooperate, based on a clear understanding of each other’s needs and priorities. A better understanding of China’s foreign policy through the prism of its energy needs would enhance Washington’s diplomatic efforts with Beijing on issues and geographies that concern it most. Focusing on the areas where cooperation can lead to fruitful outcomes for both parties — such as the energy technology transfers required to wean Beijing off its destructive reliance on coal, and exploiting where our geopolitical interests align — can only have a positive political and economic impact for both partners.

Geo-Engineering CP / Answers

Geo-Engineering – Solvency: 2 degrees

Geo-engineering is essential to avoid the 2 degree tipping pointDamian Carrington, Staff Writer, December 8, 2014, “Geoengineering could offer solution of last resort against climate change,” The Star, http://www.thestar.com.my/Lifestyle/Features/2014/12/08/Geoengineering-could-offer-solution-of-last-resort-against-climate-change/, Accessed 12-13-2014Both Watson and Rayner said the international goal of keeping warming below the “dangerous” level of 2°C would only be possible with some form of geoengineering and that research into such technology should continue. “If we found any geoengineering technology was safe, affordable and effective that could be part of a toolkit we could use to combat climate change,” said Rayner. If we ever deploy SRM in anger it will be the clearest indication yet that we have failed as planetary guardians,” said Watson. “It would be a watershed, fundamentally changing the way seven billion people interact with the world.”

Geo-Engineering – A2: Geo-Engineering turns (inevitable)

In a climate change crisis, we will resort to geo-engineeringDavid Biello, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Fact or Fiction?: Geoengineering Can Solve Global Warming,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-geoengineering-can-solve-global-warming/, Accessed 12-12-2014So maybe the answer is to genetically soup up plants so they can pull more CO2 out of the air and then bury them at the sea bottom? Or give the planet a giant sunshade, whether in the form of more clouds or a haze of light-reflecting sulfur bits floating in the stratosphere? "In a crisis the temptation will be to use the quick fix of geoengineering," argued economist Scott Barrett of Columbia University at a research symposium on CO2 capture technologies this spring. If civilization continues, the unplanned, undirected geoengineering of the climate via burning fossil fuels—whether coal in a power plant or oil sludge in a massive container ship steaming across the Pacific—then perhaps nations will need to plan for a directed attempt at geoengineering or the "deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment" as the U.K.'s Royal Society defines it. Still, scientists are starting to agree that geoengineering will prove insufficient for solving climate change.

A2: Geo-Engineering CP – Perm Do Both

We should do geo-engineering as an interim measure while continually reducing CO2The Economist, Staff Writer, December 13, 2014, “Fears of a bright planet,” http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ 21636040-experiments-designed-learn-more-about-ways-geoengineering-climate-should-be-allowed, Accessed 12-13-2014Yet caving in to this opposition would raise, rather than reduce, the dangers to the planet. Geoengineering is not an alternative to mitigating climate change by cutting carbon emissions, but it may be needed as a complement to it. Although pressure for cuts in carbon emissions through negotiations such as those currently taking place in Lima is yielding results—witness the recent agreement by China and America on new reduction targets—it has so far been insufficient to the task, and emissions look set to rise for decades yet. Even if emissions do eventually start to fall, the cuts will take decades to have any effect so temperatures are likely to go on going up for some time. Although they have not soared in the past couple of decades as they did in the 1980s and 1990s, there is a fair chance that this year will tie with the hottest on record. The planet is not getting cooler and the pressures on the climate are unlikely to go away. It is therefore not too hard to imagine a world, decades hence, in which emissions are falling but temperatures are rising steeply and the ability to adapt to them has been stretched too far. An additional way to stabilise temperatures might then seem in order. Geoengineering offers that possibility.

We can use geo-engineering at the same time we replace fossil fuelsJohn Latham, National Center for Atmospheric Research, et al., December 2014, “Climate engineering: exploring nuances and consequences of deliberately altering the Earth's energy budget,” Philosophical Transactions A, The Royal Society, http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2031/20140050, Accessed 12-13-2014Our planet is warming, largely from the ever-increasing burning of fossil fuels. If this continues, serious consequences to our planet are likely to occur within the second half of this century. The objective of Climate Engineering (hereafter CE, but also referred to as ‘Geoengineering’, and sometimes as ‘Solar Radiation Management’) is to offset the warming and some other climate consequences that would otherwise result from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface or by increasing the outward transmission of long-wave radiation from the Earth. These strategies might be used throughout the period required to replace fossil-fuel burning with globally distributed clean energy and even be continued while CO2 concentrations remained too high.

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) – Solves Methane

MCB prevents arctic sea ice melting, which checks methane releaseJohn Latham, National Center for Atmospheric Research, et al., December 2014, “Marine cloud brightening: regional applications,” Philosophical Transactions A, The Royal Society, http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2031/20140050, Accessed 12-13-2014In addition, it seems possible that methane release from the thawing of sub-sea permafrost, arising from ocean-summer warming due to sea-ice retreat, could at some stage produce a dangerous increase of atmospheric methane levels. If so, a regional MCB seeding programme could in principle produce a localized surface cooling which might prove to be adequate to prevent further increase.

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) – Solves Warming (Sea ice)

MCB can enhance and protect sea ice to substantially reduce warmingJohn Latham, National Center for Atmospheric Research, et al., December 2014, “Marine cloud brightening: regional applications,” Philosophical Transactions A, The Royal Society, http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2031/20140050, Accessed 12-13-2014Sea-ice coverage, averaged over consecutive years, is shrinking, as a consequence of the warming caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This also causes a positive feedback process to occur, because the melting of the (often snow-covered) sea ice produces a decrease in surface reflectivity from roughly 90% to 10%. This reduction produces significant warming, with concomitant enhanced melting, which has recently been quantified. For the period 1979–2011, warming due to reduced albedo in the Arctic produced a forcing of 6.4±0.9 W m−2, equivalent to an increase in 0.21±0.03 W m−2 averaged over the globe. Our MCB simulations showing the extent of the Arctic Ice Fields in June July, August (JJA) are presented in figure 2. JJA is chosen to represent average seasonal changes, rather than the variable September minimum, which as such, may not be as representative of the slower climatic changes. In both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters, the CC scenario causes ice to retreat with respect to the CON. The MCB simulations recover much of the winter ice extent lost by the CC scenario. The majority of the winter ice loss in the CC simulation is in the North Pacific. By contrast, MCB extends the extent of ice cover further south. MCB in the summer months produces an ice-limit 50 km further south than the control in the Pacific, and close to the control in the Atlantic Ocean (figure 2).

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) – Solves Warming (cloud albedo)

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) bolsters cloud albedo effectJohn Latham, National Center for Atmospheric Research, et al., December 2014, “Marine cloud brightening: regional applications,” Philosophical Transactions A, The Royal Society, http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2031/20140050, Accessed 12-13-2014Two classic cloud physics studies provided the physical background for the formulation of the marine cloud brightening (MCB) climate engineering technique. The idea behind MCB is to seed marine stratocumulus clouds with substantial concentrations of roughly monodisperse, sub-micrometre seawater particles of sufficient salt mass to be activated to form additional cloud droplets and therefore to enhance the cloud droplet concentration N, and thus cloud albedo. Provided that the salt masses are not too high, the seeding could also enhance cloud longevity, because the production of drizzle drops would be inhibited.

A2: Geo-engineering CP – Won’t solve climate change

No version of geo-engineering can solve climate changeDavid Biello, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Fact or Fiction?: Geoengineering Can Solve Global Warming,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-geoengineering-can-solve-global-warming/, Accessed 12-12-2014But neither flavor of geoengineering can serve as a solution to climate change. As outlined in the December Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, sun-blocking schemes require continual refreshing and, at best, only buy time for real solutions, such as cutting down on the amount of CO2 piling up in the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel burning, while failing to account for other impacts such as the increasing acidity of the oceans. And CO2 removal schemes could find themselves in a continuous game of catch-up with the world's voluminous output of greenhouse gases—an ever-more onerous burden if the world did nothing to restrain global warming pollution.

A2: Geo-engineering CP – CO2/Fossil Fuels turns

Geo-engineering projects divert political attention away from CO2 reductions. It’s a slippery slope of false securityThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 13, 2014, “Fears of a bright planet,” http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ 21636040-experiments-designed-learn-more-about-ways-geoengineering-climate-should-be-allowed, Accessed 12-13-2014Nonetheless, these experiments—and this whole line of research—are hugely controversial. Many scientists are skeptical about geoengineering and most greens are outraged. Opponents object to them for a range of reasons. Some are against the very idea of geoengineering and any experiments in the area, even those which pose no immediate risk to the environment. They abhor the hubris involved in trying to affect the mechanics of the climate and despair at the potential diversion of attention from controlling carbon emissions as the route to countering climate change. They find the idea of some–possibly many—countries having the power to change the climate for the whole planet a geopolitical nightmare. Even modest experiments in geoengineering, according to this logic, are the beginnings of a slippery slope, one that will engender a false sense of security and domesticate an idea that should have always remained outrageous.

Geo-engineering is science fiction and trades off with reducing fossil fuelsDavid Biello, Staff Writer, December 12, 2014, “Fact or Fiction?: Geoengineering Can Solve Global Warming,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-geoengineering-can-solve-global-warming/, Accessed 12-12-2014There is no technological fix for global warming other than the hard work of transforming a global energy system that relies on burning fossil fuels into one that relies on energy sources—the sun, Earth's heat, fission or, maybe some decade, fusion—that do not use the atmosphere as a dump. The fact that geoengineering cannot suffice is good news because it means that a viable form of climate engineering cannot undercut the urgency of making that switch. No form of climate engineering can solve global warming at present. To think so is science fiction.

Geo-engineering schemes take the focus off of reducing fossil fuelsRoyal Geographical Society (UK), Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Geo-engineering,” 21st Century Challenges, http://www.21stcenturychallenges.org/focus/geo-engineering/, Accessed 12-12-2014There has been a reluctance to seriously discuss the possibility of geo-engineering as a possible solution to global warming. Sceptics not only question the science but warn of the signal that serious geo-engineering research may send to the international community. Robin Webster, energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth, argues that the political focus must not be taken off the elimination of carbon emissions at the source, changes to the economy, increases in energy efficiency and the development and growth of renewable sources of energy. There is a risk that serious consideration of these solutions could give the impression that the need to reduce carbon emissions is not as important as thought and that global warming has a possible technical solution.

A2: Geo-engineering CP – International Coop turn

Pushing geo-engineering schemes trades off with international cooperationRoyal Geographical Society (UK), Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Geo-engineering,” 21st Century Challenges, http://www.21stcenturychallenges.org/focus/geo-engineering/, Accessed 12-12-2014David Victor, Professor of Law and Director at Stanford University argues that geo-engineering may "turn the politics and economics of climate change on its head". In the BBC Radio 4 programme, he explained that controlling greenhouse gas emissions is currently done through treaties and international agreements which encouraging countries to cooperate and make a contribution to the global effort. The prospect of geo-engineering in the future could present the reverse problem, whereby countries would need to be discouraged from carrying out a project on their own.

A2: Geo-engineering CP – Sulphur seeding kills ozone

Sulphur seeding would destroy the ozone layerThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 13, 2014, “Into the great wide open,” http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21635983-scientific-studies-techniques-deliberately-modifying-climate-are, Accessed 12-13-2014They are not the only people who want to see how ideas from geoengineering studies play out in the real world. David Keith, a professor at Harvard University, has been studying how to reflect sunlight back from an artificial layer of haze in the stratosphere similar to that created by the sulphur thrown up by large volcanic eruptions, which are known to cool the Earth. One of the risks would be that such particles can encourage chemical reactions which deplete the ozone layer. Dr. Keith and his colleagues want to study how the rates of such reactions depend on the sizes of the particles and background levels of water vapour; that would help to assess the risks and perhaps find ways to limit them. They have designed a system which would hang below a large balloon 20km up in the sky. It would create a small plume of sulphate particles and then measure the physical and chemical changes.

Politics Disadvantage / Answers

Obama has political capital now

Obama will be more activist in 2015. He’s got clout and is on a rollAmie Parnes, Staff Writer, December 27, 2014, “'Liberated' Obama builds momentum,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/228017-liberated-obama-builds-momentum, Accessed 12-27-2014President Obama is responding to a drubbing in the midterm elections with action. So far, it's paying off. Obama's poll numbers — which had previously slid into the low 40’s — are up, and the president has enjoyed a streak of good headlines. Those factors, coupled with a rising economy, are making the White House optimistic about his final two years in office. White House allies say the president feels an increased sense of liberation with the elections over. They predict that he will continue to be proactive in the face of the Republican Congress that will take power early next year. After a mostly lackluster 2014, Obama was able to score a series of wins in the last six weeks by going on the offensive with a string of executive actions, a hitherto-secret plan to normalize relations with Cuba and a satisfying compromise on the omnibus.

Obama is pushing TPP (GOP)

Obama is reaching out to the GOP to pass TPPDavid Nakamura, Staff Writer, December 26, 2014, “Obama hopes to enlist GOP in push for trade pact, despite Democratic resistance,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-hopes-to-enlist-gop-in-push-for-trade-pact-despite-democratic-resistance/2014/12/26/81236a34-8600-11e4-b9b7-b8632ae73d25_story.html, Accessed 12-27-2014President Obama is preparing a major push on a vast free-trade zone that seeks to enlist Republicans as partners and test his premise that Washington can still find common ground on major initiatives. It also will test his willingness to buck his own party in pursuit of a legacy-burnishing achievement. Already, fellow Democrats are accusing him of abandoning past promises on trade and potentially undermining his domestic priority of reducing income inequality. The dynamic, as the White House plots strategy for the new year when the GOP has full control of Congress, has scrambled traditional political alliances. In recent weeks, Obama has rallied the business community behind his trade agenda, while leading Capitol Hill progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have raised objections and labor and environmental groups have mounted a public relations campaign against it. The administration is moving aggressively in hopes of wrapping up negotiations by the middle of next year on a 12-nation free-trade pact in the Asia-Pacific region before the politics become even more daunting ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign.

Obama is pushing TPP (January timeframe)

Obama is pushing TPP. First big test will be in JanuaryDavid Nakamura, Staff Writer, December 26, 2014, “Obama hopes to enlist GOP in push for trade pact, despite Democratic resistance,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-hopes-to-enlist-gop-in-push-for-trade-pact-despite-democratic-resistance/2014/12/26/81236a34-8600-11e4-b9b7-b8632ae73d25_story.html, Accessed 12-27-2014At issue is Obama’s support for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would establish the world’s largest free-trade zone. The administration has touted the deal as a way to boost U.S. exports to Asia at a time when the United States faces increasing competition from China. The TPP aims to lower tariffs, establish guidelines on patents and copyrights, and level competition for international companies that compete with government-backed businesses. The first major test could come next month, when Senate Republicans are expected to put forward legislation that would grant U.S. trade negotiators “fast-track authority” to reach final terms that could not be changed by Congress before an up-or-down vote. Last year, Senate Democrats blocked a White House push for such powers amid pressure from organized labor in an election year. Since the midterms, Obama has ramped up his personal engagement, meeting with the other nations at an international economic summit last month and touting the potential benefits to business leaders in Washington.

TPP Bad – Women, LGBT, human rights

The TPP sells out women and cuts HIV/AIDS drug accessMartha Burk, director of the Corporate Accountability Project for the National Council of Women’s Organizations (NCWO) , December 23, 2014, “How the TPP Sells Out America’s Women,” Foreign Policy In Focus, http://fpif.org/tpp-sells-americas-women/, Accessed 12-27-2014But here’s what we do know: This so-called “partnership” is an insult to U.S. workers. And it’s especially bad news for women. According to Doctors Without Borders, for example, the agreement’s intellectual property clauses could cut off access to generic drugs for people living with HIV/AIDS — who are increasingly women and kids. And the Communications Workers of America union says the pact will make it easier for corporations to outsource majority-female jobs — not only in low-wage workplaces such as call centers , but also higher-wage sectors like human resources .

The U.S. should not negotiate the TPP with countries like Brunei that oppressive women and LGBTFeminist Newswire, Staff Writer, December 8, 2014, “Activists Demonstrate Outside Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations,” Feminist Majority Foundation, http://feminist.org/blog/index.php/2014/12/08/tpp-talks-in-dc-this-week/, Accessed 12-27-2014The agreement also threatens human rights. The Feminist Majority Foundation in June led a group of 12 women’s rights organizations, demanding the White House suspend all TPP talks until Brunei was removed from the negotiating table or until the Sultan of Brunei revoked its new penal code, which calls for the stoning of gays, lesbians and people convicted of adultery, as well as the public flogging of women who’ve had abortions. In a letter to President Obama, the groups wrote: It is simply unacceptable for the United States to bind itself into a close and enduring relationship with a country that is enacting such policies… The administration has claimed that the TPP will be a high-standard 21st century agreement. But clearly no 21st century agreement can include a country that has imposed 5th century laws that deny women, LGBT people and others their basic human rights. (ellipses in original)

U.S. taxpayers would subsidize the oppression of women and LGBTMartha Burk, director of the Corporate Accountability Project for the National Council of Women’s Organizations (NCWO) , December 23, 2014, “How the TPP Sells Out America’s Women,” Foreign Policy In Focus, http://fpif.org/tpp-sells-americas-women/, Accessed 12-27-2014And there’s another little-known provision. Under the proposed rules, businesses incorporated in TPP countries — any of them — would be guaranteed equal treatment with U.S. firms when bidding on government contracts. That means our tax dollars could go to underwriting companies in countries like Brunei, which imprisons unmarried women for getting pregnant and allows the stoning of gays and lesbians.I’m all for cooperation in government, and I do hope President Obama and Mitch McConnell can agree on some things — like a higher minimum wage for instance. But the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Sink it.

The TPP has a host of human rights violationsFeminist Newswire, Staff Writer, December 8, 2014, “Activists Demonstrate Outside Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations,” Feminist Majority Foundation, http://feminist.org/blog/index.php/2014/12/08/tpp-talks-in-dc-this-week/, Accessed 12-27-2014A number of workers’ rights, human rights, women’s rights, environmental, and LGBT groups, however, have opposed the deal, citing a broad range of concerns. As Martha Burk explained in the Fall 2014 issue

of Ms., the TPP is “unprecedented in its scope, affecting not only trade in goods and services, but also regulation of intellectual property, foreign investments, and labor and environmental standards.” Unions say that the deal means fewer US jobs – especially majority-female jobs in the communications and human resources sectors. Groups like Doctors without Borders have also pointed out that the TPP’s provisions on intellectual property could reduce access to generic drugs, including drugs that are critical for treatment of HIV/AIDS.

A2: Seafood Industry Disadvantage

Uniqueness Answers – Industry decline is inevitable

Commercial seafood could disappear by 2048Cliff Weathers, senior editor at AlterNet and a former deputy editor at Consumer Reports, November 28, 2014, “Like Seafood? Enjoy It Now: Commercial Seafood Set to Disappear from Oceans in 2048,” AlterNet News, http://www.alternet.org/environment/seafood-catches-can-crash-2048-says-m, Accessed 12-13-2014A prominent marine research ecologist says that commercial seafood could disappear from our oceans within the next three decades if humans don’t take action immediately. Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada said the oceans are quickly losing biodiversity and that nearly 30% of seafood species humans consume are already too small to harvest. If the long-term trend continues, there will be little or no seafood available for a sustainable harvest by 2048. Dr. Worm’s study was recently published in the journal Science and is an update of a study published in 2006. Importantly, the study is about the collapse of commercial catches, not species extinction. Catch collapse means that fish are caught at 10% or less of the rate they had been caught historically.

Capitalism

Links – Marine debris / plastics

Consumption desire is the root cause of plastic pollutionMiyoko Sakashita, Oceans Director, Center for Biological Diversity, December 12, 2014, “Our Oceans Awash in Toxic Plastic Garbage,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miyoko-sakashita/our-oceans-awash-in-toxic_b_6312164.html?utm_hp_ref=green, Accessed 12-13-2014Plastics are a huge problem for our oceans, and it is only predicted to get worse. Almost 300 million tons of plastic are produced every year, and only 5 percent of the world's plastic is currently recycled. Researchers forecast the volume of oceanic plastic debris will only increase due to rising production of throwaway plastic, and consumers' insatiable desire for cheap and convenient plastic goods.

Links – Ocean crisis

Consumption is the root cause of the ocean crisisPeter Neill, Director, World Ocean Observatory, November 24, 2014, “What Does Greed Look Like? Overfishing for Tuna in the 21st Century,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-neill/what-does-greed-look-like_b_6214770.html, Accessed 12-21-2014When we speak about the future of the ocean, we use words like sustainability and responsibility. We also lament the actions by many, often oil and gas interests, that declare their indifference to sustainability by word and irresponsibility by deed. Again and again, we identify instances when total consumption overwhelms any alternative approach, and regulation is opposed through politics, obfuscation, and corruption. The conflict, often mentioned in these blog posts, lies between human need and greed.

Links – Ghost gear

Corporate fishing is uniquely to blame for ghost gearLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 17, 2014, “Ghost Fishing: Time for the Fishing Industry to Clean Up Its Deadly Mess,” http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/behavior_change/leon_kaye/ghost_fishing_time_fishing_industry_clean_its_deadly_mess, Accessed 12-21-2014Fingers are often pointed at fishermen for causing this problem, but the issue of ghost gear is far more complicated. As Tonny Wagey, an Indonesian government scientist who attended the GGGI meetings, explained in an interview, fishermen do not want to lose their nets because replacing them can often cost two to three months’ worth of their annual earnings. “It is the big companies, many of which know illegal fishing is going on, that are behind this problem,” Wagey said, “and there is a lack of political will to deal with this.”

General and Advantage Impacts

Biodiversity

A2: Biodiversity (theory)

The science behind their biodiversity claims are empirically deniedRichard Monastersky, Former editor at The Chronicle of Higher Education, December 10, 2014, “Biodiversity: Life – a status report,” Nature, http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-life-a-status-report-1.16523, Accessed 12-12-2014Of all the species that have populated Earth at some time over the past 3.5 billion years, more than 95% have vanished — many of them in spectacular die-offs called mass extinctions. On that much, researchers can generally agree. Yet when it comes to taking stock of how much life exists today — and how quickly it will vanish in the future — uncertainty prevails.

It is impossible to project future extinction ratesRichard Monastersky, Former editor at The Chronicle of Higher Education, December 10, 2014, “Biodiversity: Life – a status report,” Nature, http://www.nature.com/news/biodiversity-life-a-status-report-1.16523, Accessed 12-12-2014Looking forward, the picture gets less certain. The effects of climate change, which are hard to forecast in terms of pace and pattern, will probably accelerate extinctions in as-yet unknown ways. One simple way to project into the future would be to assume that the rate of extinction will be constant; it is currently estimated to range from 0.01% to 0.7% of all existing species a year. “There is a huge uncertainty in projecting future extinction rates,” says Henrique Pereira, an ecologist at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research in Leipzig.

A2: Biodiversity (oceans)

Multiple factors converge to undermine ocean ecosystemsCliff Weathers, senior editor at AlterNet and a former deputy editor at Consumer Reports, November 28, 2014, “Like Seafood? Enjoy It Now: Commercial Seafood Set to Disappear from Oceans in 2048,” AlterNet News, http://www.alternet.org/environment/seafood-catches-can-crash-2048-says-m, Accessed 12-13-2014Still, Worm and his international team of scientists and economists say that catch collapses paint a grim picture for the ocean and for human health. The accelerated loss of biodiversity, they say, is imperiled by overfishing, pollution, habitat loss and climate change. Saltwater ecosystems, including human populations that depend on it for survival, can be adversely affected by dwindling populations. Harmful algae blooms, coastal flooding and poor water quality can be the results of reduced fish populations.

Climate Change / Warming

Alarmist rhetoric is essential

We should advance alarming stories of climate change that indict fossil fuelsRebecca Solnit, Staff Writer, December 2, 2014, “Are We Missing the Big Picture on Climate Change?,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/magazine/are-we-missing-the-big-picture-on-climate-change.html?_r=0, Accessed 12-20-2014Climate change is everything, a story and a calamity bigger than any other. It’s the whole planet for the whole foreseeable future, the entire atmosphere, all the oceans, the poles; it’s weather and crop failure and famine and tropical diseases heading north and desertification and the uncertain fate of a great majority of species on earth. The stories about individual birds can distract us from the slowmotion calamity that will eventually threaten every bird. And so we should seek out new kinds of stories — stories that make us more alarmed about our conventional energy sources than the alternatives, that provide context, that show us the future as well as the past, that make us see past the death of a sparrow or a swallow to the systems of survival for whole species and the nature of the planet we leave to the future.

2 Degree Warming – Status Quo cannot meet

The status quo will not reduce emissions enough to beat the 2 degree thresholdJohn Roach, Staff Writer, November 28, 2014, “We're Kidding Ourselves on 2-Degree Global Warming Limit: Experts,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/were-kidding-ourselves-2-degree-global-warming-limit-experts-n257006, Accessed 12-13-2014In recent months, this sentiment has been echoed and reinforced by scientists and policy analysts throughout the climate and environmental communities. And there's debate over whether the 2-degree target should be ditched altogether in favor of a strategy that focuses on attainable, albeit lofty goals built from the ground up. "The 2-degree target is a great idea," Granger Morgan, a professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, told NBC News. "But we have been so slow in doing anything much about controlling emissions that the accumulative effects are building up on us and … I just do not see the political will to limit emissions to the degree that will be needed to stay below 2 degrees."

A2: Climate Change – 2 degree threshold is an illusion

There is no scientific basis for the 2 degree thresholdMichelle Nijhuis, Staff Writer, October 1, 2014, “Is 2 Degrees the Right Limit for Global Warming? Some Scientists Say No,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/141001-two-degrees-global-warming-climate-science/, Accessed 12-13-2014The 2009 Copenhagen Accord —the document that emerged from that year's UN Climate Change Conference—enshrined a two-degree rise in global average temperature as the threshold of "dangerous" human interference in the climate system. "There was little scientific basis for the 2°C figure that was adopted," Victor and his coauthor, Charles Kennel, director emeritus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, write in Nature, "but it offered a simple focal point and was familiar from earlier discussions ... At the time, the 2°C goal sounded bold and perhaps feasible."

Beating the 2 degree threshold is impossible because current emissions are too highJohn Roach, Staff Writer, November 28, 2014, “We're Kidding Ourselves on 2-Degree Global Warming Limit: Experts,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/were-kidding-ourselves-2-degree-global-warming-limit-experts-n257006, Accessed 12-13-2014World leaders have voluntarily committed to limit warming by the end of the century to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial level, a threshold beyond which, scientists argue, severe drought, rising seas and supercharged storms as well as food and water security become routine challenges. Given the world's historic emissions combined with a continued reliance on fossil fuels to power humanity for the foreseeable future, limiting the increase to 2 degrees Celsius is all but impossible, according to David Victor , a professor of international relations and an expert on climate change policy at the University of California, San Diego. "There is no scenario by which any accord that's realistic on this planet is going to get us to 2 degrees because the trajectory on emissions right now is way above 2 degrees," he told NBC News.

We should scrap the 2 degree goal. It causes failed climate policiesJeffrey Ball, Staff Writer, October 1, 2014, “Our Planet Is Going to Blow Past the "Two Degrees" Climate Limit,” National Geographic, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119757/two-degrees-climate-change-no-longer-possible, Accessed 12-13-2014The conclusion that global temperatures are on track to burst through the two-degrees ceiling isn’t much in dispute. What’s controversial is what the world should do about it. In recent days, influential voices have advocated scrapping the two-degrees threshold as a goal, saying that to continue to structure climate policy around an all-but-dashed hope of averting that limit is both politically dishonest and environmentally counterproductive. This call to nix the two-degrees metric has spurred a backlash from the climate-science establishment, and, more importantly, it raises big financial questions for companies and consumers worldwide. If the two-degrees goal changes, then so might the many climate policies framed around it—policies that translate into costs for polluters and profitable markets for clean-energy providers. At stake in this fight over a couple of degrees is potentially billions of dollars.

A2: Climate Change – 2 degree focus turns

Focusing on 2 degrees is a failed approach that trades-off with mobilizing adaptationMichelle Nijhuis, Staff Writer, October 1, 2014, “Is 2 Degrees the Right Limit for Global Warming? Some Scientists Say No,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/141001-two-degrees-global-warming-climate-science/, Accessed 12-13-2014Victor and other critics, however, say that as the target becomes effectively unachievable, it threatens the relevance of the process it's intended to catalyze. Though some models show that the target can still be met, those make "heroic assumptions"—immediate global cooperation, for instance, or the sudden, wide availability of new technologies. "Pretending that they are chasing this unattainable goal has also allowed governments to ignore the need for massive adaptation to climate change," Victor and Kennel write. Victor also points out that average global surface temperatures doesn't fully represent the changing global climate. Although the increase in average surface temperature has stalled over the past 16 years, average temperatures in the deep ocean—where most of the extra heat in the climate system is stored—has continued to rise. "We think it's an error to boil it all down to a single goal, given how complex the climate system is," he says.

Their 2 degree argument is wrong and distracts us from accurate climate actionMichelle Nijhuis, Staff Writer, October 1, 2014, “Is 2 Degrees the Right Limit for Global Warming? Some Scientists Say No,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/141001-two-degrees-global-warming-climate-science/, Accessed 12-13-2014For more than a decade international climate-policy discussions have revolved around a seemingly simple goal: Limit the rise in average global surface temperature to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). But a new paper argues that the two-degree target is not only increasingly unrealistic but also misleading. "More and more, it's a combination of fantasy and irrelevance," says David Victor, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego, and the co-author of a critique of the target published in today's issue of Nature. "Maintaining it forces us to continue to pretend that it's feasible—and focuses people's attention on a number that isn't very well connected to the damage humans are doing to the climate."

A2: Climate Change – China coal outweighs U.S. reductions

China coal use will continue to outweigh U.S. coal reductions for decadeBill Richardson, Staff Writer, December 10, 2014, “Does China’s Quest for Energy Security Threaten the United States?,” Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/10/does-chinas-quest-for-energy-security-threaten-the-united-states/, Accessed 12-21-2014The reduction of greenhouse gases and the fight against climate change remain a major source of tension between Beijing and the international community. The landmark deal the United States and China reached in mid-November to reduce emissions is a rare point of agreement and has far-reaching implications, illustrating the influence these two powers have in directing the global climate change debate. China, however, remains the world’s number one coal producer, consumer, and importer, accounting for nearly half of global consumption, mainly for use in coal-fired power plants. Even though Beijing plans to cap coal use in comparison with other fuels by 2017, the U.S. Energy Information Agency, a government statistics agency, expects that China’s coal consumption will continue to rise over the next few decades.

Economy

U.S. economy is strong now and growing

Multiple systemic factors are contributing to a strong economyKen Rapoza, Staff Writer, December 23, 2014, “Thoughts On The Global Economy Heading Into 2015,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2014/12/23/thoughts-on-the-global-economy-heading-into-2015/, Accessed 12-27-2014The U.S. economy has survived another year. What was supposed to be the year of rising U.S. interest rates, and a return of emerging market growth, has instead become the year where the U.S. stands alone. The economy is doing better than anyone expected, with the Dow cracking 18,000 on Dec. 23 and unemployment under 6%. And while incomes are stagnant, gasoline prices are under $2.60 a gallon nationwide. Economic fundamentals, low asset prices for land and real estate, and the generally strong rule of law and stable regulatory environment have all made the U.S. the best investment market for global investors. For better or for worse, the American economy is once again the engine of global growth heading into 2015.

There’s strong momentum for economic growth in 2015Shobhana Chandra and Michelle Jamrisko, Staff Writers, December 23, 2014, “As 2015 Starts, the American Consumer Is Back,” Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/consumer-spending-beats-forecast-as-u-s-gasoline-prices-drop.html, Accessed 12-27-2014The American consumer is back, recharging the U.S. economic expansion. Households splurged on new cars, appliances, televisions and clothing as spending climbed 0.6 percent in November, beating the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, according to figures from the Commerce Department issued today in Washington. The economy grew at the fastest pace in 11 years, another report showed. “We have very solid momentum entering 2015,” said Michael Gapen, the New York-based chief U.S. economist for Barclays Plc. “Labor markets are doing better, the consumer has a more favorable outlook for the economy and their own incomes, and they’re acting on it.”

Multiple economic forecasts put the U.S. economy on a solid recovery pathDavid R. Sands, Staff Writer, December 9, 2014, “U.S. economy set for growth, hiring in 2015, financial executives predict,” The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/9/us-economy-set-for-growth-hiring-in-2015-financial/, Accessed 12-27-2014The nation’s financial executives are the latest group to predict even better times to come for the U.S. economy. In a new membership poll being released Tuesday, the industry’s trade group says it sees growing payrolls, solid growth and continued low inflation in 2015. The annual survey by the Association for Financial Professionals Inc. joins a growing number of forecasts which see the U.S. economic recovery solidifying next year, along with the first real pressure on employers to increase hiring and raise wages since the start of the Great Recession six years ago.

The global economy will be weak in 2015

Global economic growth will slow in 2015The Press Trust of India, Staff Writer, December 23, 2014, “Global economy will be significantly weaker in 2015: Report,” News Nation, http://www.newsnation.in/article/64679-global-economy-significantly-weaker-2015-report.html, Accessed 12-27-2014The global economy shows signs of weakness with significant downside risks, some of which are likely to materialise next year and leave the world economy in worse shape than in 2014, a top Qatari bank has warned. “Looking back, our expectations for 2014 were for a moderate recovery in the world economy that would enable an orderly exit from US Quantitative Easing (QE) and a resumption of global growth to its pre-crisis levels. The reality turned out to be quite different,” the report by Qatar’s QNB Group said. Overall global growth in 2015 is likely to be significantly weaker than in 2014. If our predictions materialise, it is more likely that the global economy will expand only by 1.5 to 2 per cent, the report said.

The rich-poor gap will make recovery from a global economic decline in 2015 unlikelyThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 20, 2014, “The World Economy In 2015 Will Carry Troubling Echoes Of The Late '90s,” http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21636742-world-economy-2015-will-carry-troubling-echoes-late-1990s-past-and-future-tense, Accessed 12-27-2014But if the world economy does stumble, restoring stability will be harder this time round because policymakers have so little room for manoeuvre. Back in 1999 the Federal Reserve’s policy rate was around 5%, leaving plenty of scope for cutting when the economy slowed. Nowadays interest rates all over the rich world are close to zero. The political scene is also different, and not in a good way. At the end of the 1990s most people in the rich world had enjoyed the fruits of the boom: median American wages rose by 7.7% in real terms in 1995-2000. Since 2007, by contrast, they have been flat in America, and have fallen in Britain and much of the euro zone. All over the rich world voters are already grumpy with their governments, as polling numbers and their willingness to vote for protest parties show. If they are squeezed next year discontent will turn to anger. The economics of 2015 may look similar to the late 1990s, but the politics will probably be rather worse.

Hegemony

A2: Soft Power / Leadership

Race relations have tanked U.S. international credibilityJeff Stein, Staff Writer, December 5, 2014, “Ferguson and Garner Cases Hurt U.S. Foreign Policy,” Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/ferguson-and-garner-cases-hurt-us-foreign-policy-289613, Accessed 12-27-2014President Barack Obama faces a similar challenge with the rush of bad news, photos and videotape from Ferguson, Missouri, New York’s Staten Island and elsewhere, Dudziak says. More than 50 years after Birmingham, America’s race problems are again front-page news, from London to Baghdad, Beijing to Tehran—and of course trumpeted to the remotest mountaintops via Arab-language radio and television stations. Russia, China and ISIS are all crowing about American “hypocrisy” in social media. If Obama hopes to turn this around, she says, he needs to take a page from JFK. “As the crisis in Birmingham played out,” Dudziak recounted in Foreign Affairs in August, “many looked to...Kennedy for action. As civil rights adviser Burke Marshall would later put it, Americans were left wondering, ‘Why didn’t he do something?’ Ultimately, the president did do something. Namely, he sent Marshall to Birmingham, where he met with leaders from the civil rights movement and local government and businesses, and they worked out a compromise plan to desegregate the city and release jailed demonstrators. But by then Birmingham was more than a local crisis—it was also a national and international one. Because of that, managing it required more.”

A2: Asia Pivot

Obama’s Asia Pivot is a failure. China has increasingly challenged U.S. interestsHugh White, professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, December 10, 2014, “Obama wakes up to China's challenge in Asia,” The Straits Times, http://www.straitstimes.com/news/opinion/invitation/story/obama-wakes-chinas-challenge-asia-20141210, Accessed 12-28-2014The key question now is what President Obama intends to do about it. He answered this by re-stating the "pivot" or "rebalance" policy which he first spelled out in Canberra three years ago, and reaffirming America's commitment to sustain its leadership role in Asia. "In good times and bad, you can count on the United States of America," he said. "No one should ever question our resolve or our commitment to our allies." But he also acknowledged that there had been doubts about the pivot's effectiveness. Indeed, the fact that he had to deliver the kind of speech he did in Brisbane is testament to the legitimacy of those doubts. Over the three years since the pivot was launched, China's challenge to US primacy in Asia has only grown, and America's position has weakened. And yet, Mr Obama proposed nothing new that might reverse this trend. That means there is no reason to expect America's will to be any more successful in resisting China's challenge in Asia over the next few years than it has been so far. That suggests that the US needs to go back to the drawing board and rethink its future role in Asia from the ground up.

The U.S. cannot maintain an Asia Pivot. It won’t be effectiveZihao Liu, Staff Writer, December 18, 2014, “’Pivot to Asia’ is defunct,” East Asia, US Foreign Policy, http://diplomacist.org/articles/2014/12/11/pivot-to-asia-in-defunct, Accessed 12-28-2014While much attention has been paid to the allegedly historic greenhouse gas emission agreement between China and the U.S. at the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit this November, America and its allies should be concerned about President Obama’s central foreign policy objective — a “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia. Nearly six years into Obama’s presidency, America has failed to back up its rhetoric with concrete actions while tensions in Asia have become higher and higher. More profoundly, the U.S. military is suffering from sequestration at a time when China is producing more and more state-of-the-art weaponry. The crisis in Ukraine and the rise of ISIS in the Middle East has further diverted America’s strategic focus from Asia, where there has been no substantial increase in U.S. military presence.

A2: Great Powers Wars

Interstate conflicts have systemically declined since WWIIDominic Tierney, PhD., Senior Fellow with FPRI’s Program on National Security, and associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College, December 2014, “Is the Whole World on Fire?,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, E-Notes, http://www.fpri.org/articles/2014/12/ whole-world-fire, Accessed 12-20-2014Let’s begin with the good news. Since World War II, there has been a striking decline in the level of interstate war, or fighting between the uniformed militaries of recognized countries. Of course, states have not suddenly become paragons of virtue. International politics remains a contact sport. Interstate wars do still happen, like the brutal Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. But these conflicts are now very rare. The chart below, from the National Academy of Sciences (via theAtlantic.com) reveals the decline of interstate war. Other data (here and here) show similar results. World War II was a great crescendo of interstate violence that heralded what historian John Lewis Gaddis called “the long peace.” Great powers have not fought each other since the Korean War, over sixty years ago. In Western Europe, war used to be the sport of kings and despots. Now tourists can picnic safely on the Franco-German border. Territorial expansion by force is no longer acceptable. Departments of war have been renamed as departments of defense. Empire building has gone out of fashion. For much of the world, war has shed its luster of glory. Theodore Roosevelt once declared: “no triumph of peace is quite so great as the supreme triumph of war.” But which leader of a developed democracy would repeat these words today? There are many reasons for this happy tale of interstate peace, including memories of the world wars, nuclear deterrence, the spread of democracy, economic interdependence, and the creation of international institutions like the United Nations. The precise importance of each factor is much debated. But few can dispute that relations between countries have entered an era of almost unprecedented stability.

Internal civil wars are the biggest threat

Even though interstate war is declining, internal conflicts are rising ripe for escalationDominic Tierney, PhD., Senior Fellow with FPRI’s Program on National Security, and associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College, December 2014, “Is the Whole World on Fire?,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, E-Notes, http://www.fpri.org/articles/2014/12/ whole-world-fire, Accessed 12-20-2014The truth is that global violence has indeed declined, especially interstate wars fought between countries. But as the tide of conflict recedes, we are left with intractable civil wars that present a host of difficult challenges. There is a tale of two worlds. For interstate relations, it’s the best of times. For fragile countries, threatened by internal fracture, it may be the worst of times. And here the zones of peace and war collide. Countries may not fight each other directly, but they show few qualms about intervening in foreign internal conflicts. Indeed, civil wars have become the main arena for military competition between states. The world is not on fire. But even smoldering embers can suddenly alight.

Internationalized civil wars are the biggest threat to global peaceDominic Tierney, PhD., Senior Fellow with FPRI’s Program on National Security, and associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College, December 2014, “Is the Whole World on Fire?,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, E-Notes, http://www.fpri.org/articles/2014/12/ whole-world-fire, Accessed 12-20-2014Why does the rise of internationalized civil war matter? For one thing, these conflicts tend to be much bloodier than wars that remain a domestic affair. Furthermore, by meddling in civil wars, countries are playing with fire. Proxy wars could transmit conflict back to the interstate level—so the Eloi begin fighting each other directly again. In proxy conflicts, the patron usually remains aloof and the local ally has considerable autonomy. The ally may therefore act in unexpected ways, like shooting down the Malaysia Airlines jet in Eastern Ukraine. Today, internationalized civil wars could be the single greatest threat to global interstate peace.

A2: ISIS / Terrorism

A2: ISIS – No threat

The government is misleading the public about ISIS. Threat claims are incorrectMicah Zenko, the Douglas Dillon fellow with the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, November 21, 2014, “Exaggeration Nation,” Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/11/21/exaggeration-nation/, Accessed 12-27-2014Government officials routinely mischaracterize and inflate the threats posed to the United States in order to catalyze public opinion and ensure congressional acquiescence to the latest foreign military intervention. Yet neither the public nor members of Congress should accept such language, because it is both deeply misleading and factually wrong. Of course, the United States has faced any number of threats that were far more sophisticated, well-armed, better funded, and larger — the Soviet Union is one notable, superpower-sized example. It is also completely incorrect to contend that ISIS is an imminent threat to every interest, or even directly to the United States itself. As several U.S. intelligence officials have now declared: "We have no credible information that [the Islamic State] is planning to attack the homeland of the United States."

ISIS terrorism is a low riskCamille Pecastaing, Staff Writer, December 25, 2014, “Are We Taking the ISIS Threat Too Seriously?,” Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/are-we-taking-isis-threat-too-seriously-294487, Accessed 12-27-2014ISIS is a low-risk villain and the threat from homebound terrorists is marginal. ISIS also rescued the administration’s Middle East policy, which had recently erred in pursuit of a peace agreement between the Israeli and Palestinians, and a negotiated a settlement to the Iranian nuclear program. If there are two fronts that are rock solid in the Middle East, it is the Irano-American and the Israeli-Palestinian enmities.

No reason for the U.S. to panic over ISISDaniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Jeremy Shapiro, fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, November/December 2014, “Homeward Bound? Don't Hype the Threat of Returning Jihadists,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142025/daniel-byman-and-jeremy-shapiro/homeward-bound, Accessed 12-27-2014As long as the Syrian civil war and the ISIS offensive in Iraq continue, however, some fallout in the West appears inevitable. Terrorism is an unfortunate feature of modern life that cannot be eradicated; it can only be mitigated. Indeed, the Obama administration’s decision to intervene against ISIS makes the group more likely to try to expand its list of immediate targets. Yet it is important to avoid panic and to recognize that both the United States and the EU have fended off the worst outcomes in the past and will likely continue to do so. Measures to reduce the threat of terrorism can and should be improved. But the standard of success cannot be eliminating risk in its totality. If it is, Western governments are doomed to failure and, worse, to an overreaction that will breed far more dangerous policy mistakes.