Venture Minerals Limited

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Project BFS, MOU’s with offtakers to sparkvalue recognition

Transcript of Venture Minerals Limited

Page 1: Venture Minerals Limited

Page 1 – Copyright © 2012 RM Research – www.rmresearch.com.au - Please read the disclaimer for terms.

Investment Highlights

Venture Minerals is making solid progress towards completion of its BankableFeasibility Study on development of the Mount Lindsay tin-tungsten project. TheBFS is slated for completion in June 2012, with all assays from diamond drillingreceived, metallurgical testwork well advanced and mine design, environmentalpermitting and marketing studies progressing on schedule.

A Pre-Feasibility Study confirmed the results of previous studies illustrating that theproject was very robust and relatively low risk with an excellent internal rate ofreturn of between 29% and 55% (based on 50:50 debt equity split).

The Mount Lindsay Project is located in a favourable geological setting with 370km2 of tenements straddling the southern, western and part of the northern marginof the Meredith Granite. The project is located between the Renison Bell tin mineand the equally prolific Savage River magnetite mine. The region is endowed withmodern, well-established infrastructure including nearby hydroelectric power plantsand electrical distribution units, rail and power facilities capable of dispatchingexport cargoes, and a well-trained and highly skilled workforce.

Since mid 2007 Venture Minerals has completed in excess of 60 kilometres ofdiamond core drilling on the Mt Lindsay Project. The Indicated and Inferred MineralResource now contains 82,000 tonnes of tin metal and 38,000 tonnes of tungstenmetal within 43 million tonnes of magnetite host rock. The resource is defined overless than 10% of the identified skarn mineralisation and is open at depth. Weanticipate a large conversion ratio of current indicated resource to measuredcategory on completion of the BFS.

The exploration potential of the Mount Lindsay Project is significant. Even after 5years of relatively aggressive exploration activity Venture Minerals has resourcedefinition drilled a combined 4km out of a total of 41km of strike length ofinterpreted magnetite skarns.

The exploration potential at Mount Lindsay is illustrated by the identification of theLivingstone direct shipping ore (DSO) Iron Ore Deposit. This deposit, althoughsmall at only 2.2Mt at 58% Fe of inferred resource, is progressing briskly tocommercialisation leveraging off its exceptional access to infrastructure being 2kmfrom a sealed road that leads to existing port and rail facilities. An additional DSOhematite prospect at Riley Creek has now been identified, which is even closer tothe rail infrastructure. The recent signing of MOU’s with four potential offtakers(15/2/2012) is further endorsement of the DSO story.

Venture Minerals has adequate funding to complete the BFS whilst alsoprogressing its DSO hematite project. The conversion of slightly more than 10million options at $0.30 by a US based investment fund has left the Company withapproximately $14 million of cash in the bank as at 31 January 2012.

OutlookThe Mount Lindsay Project BFS is less than 6 months from delivery and we expectthis to illustrate a robust large-scale tin-tungsten mineral resource that deriveshandsome economic returns. We anticipate that market offtake interest willintensify and the true value of Venture Minerals will be recognised in the monthsahead. RM Research rates Venture Minerals as a Speculative Buy and has acalculated a 12-month price target of $0.65 per share, underpinned by ourestimated Mount Lindsay Project net present value (NPV) of $106 million ($0.46per share), cash of approximately $14 million ($0.06 per share), and a veryconservative nominal valuation of $20m ($0.09 per share) for exploration and otherprojects, including the highly promising Livingstone DSO hematite project.

Capital Structure

Sector Materials

Share Price (A$) 0.34

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares (m) 232.5

Opt (ex A$0.55 & A$0.70, 20/03/13) (m) 11.0

Market Cap’n (undil) (A$) 79.1

Share Price Year High-Low (A$) 0.47-0.17

Approx Cash (A$m) 14.0

0.47-0.17

Directors

Mel Ashton Non Exec Chairman

Hamish Halliday Managing Director

Andrew Radonjic Executive Director

John Jetter Non Exec Director

Bruce Mc Fadzean Non Exec Director

Major Shareholders

HSBC Custody Nominees P/L 12.6%

Black Peak Holdings 3.0%

Analyst

Guy Le Page +61 8 9488 0800

Share Price Performance

24 February 2012

ASX Code: VMSSpeculative Buy

Venture Minerals LimitedProject BFS, MOU’s with offtakers to sparkvalue recognition

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Page 2 Copyright © 2012 RM Research Please refer to important disclosures located at end of this report.

24 February 2012

COMPANY OVERVIEWVenture Minerals listed on the ASX in September 2006, raising A$5 million to explore forvarious minerals in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. By late 2007, the MountLindsay Project in North West Tasmania had become the main focus of the Company, as thepotential to host a large magnetite resource came to light. An initial resource estimate of 20million tonnes at 33% iron (Fe) content was reported in August 2008 and subsequent drillingidentified a high grade tin zone within the magnetite-rich skarns.

A second high-grade shoot was discovered soon thereafter, which contained not only tincontent but significant levels of tungsten-bearing scheelite. An upgraded magnetite resourceand an initial resource of tin and tungsten were announced in the March quarter of 2009 andVenture Minerals moved forward with a Scoping Study on the Mount Lindsay Project. Thescoping study indicated robust economics and further drilling resulted in a resource upgrade inMarch 2010 followed by commencement of a Pre Feasibility Study.

In November 2010 an updated resource was announced, incorporating results from more than13km of additional diamond core drilling and 40km in total, which delivered a 28% increase inequivalent contained tin metal. The Pre Feasibility study conducted by independentconsultants confirmed the world-class potential of the Mt Lindsay Project and a BankableFeasibility Study was immediately initiated, with an expected completion date of June 2012.

Mount Lindsay Tin - Tungsten - Magnetite Project, Tasmania

The Mount Lindsay Project is located in North Western Tasmania. It consists of four whollyowned exploration licences covering an area of 156 square kilometres, 65 square kilometresof exploration licences acquired after a competitive tender process finalised in December2010, and a further two exploration licences of 146 square kilometres in area which theCompany has 70% of the tin, tungsten and iron rights.

The project tenure covers the southern, eastern and most of the northern contactmetamorphic aureole of the Meredith Granite. The Meredith Granite is part of a suite ofDevonian granites that tend to host the tin and tungsten mineralisation, as evidenced by thenearby deposits of Renison Bell (tin); King Island (tungsten); Mount Bischoff (tin); andCleveland (tin). Mount Lindsay is located 25 kilometres south east of the operating SavageRiver Magnetite Mine and 15 kilometres north-west of the Renison Bell Tin Mine. The projecthas excellent access to existing infrastructure including sealed roads, water, rail and portfacilities and hydro power.

Alluvial tin was discovered in the southern part of the tenement package sometime around1893. Some minor small-scale open pit and underground operations took place until the early1930’s and several exploration programmes, predominantly for tin, were conducted in the areaover the next 60 years.

FIGURE 1: VentureMinerals Ltdtenements (sourceVenture Minerals Ltd,Investor Presentation,ASX Announcement2/2/2010).

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In 2001 a Government funded heli-magnetic survey was flown and data was processed. The200 metre line spaced imagery identified many skarn units as conspicuous high-magneticanomalies. Approximately 14 strike kilometres of skarn have now been identified as targets fortin – tungsten – magnetite mineralisation with a further 36 strike kilometres of target area formagnetite accumulations.

Since mid 2007 Venture Minerals has completed more than 60,000 metres of diamond coredrilling. This drilling has defined a JORC compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resourceswithin the Mount Lindsay deposit of:

Sn EqCut-offGrade

JORC ResCategory

TonnesMt

Sn EquivGrade

SnGrade

WO3Grade

Wt RecovFe Grade

Cont’dSn

ContainedWO3

0.20% IndicatedInferredTOTAL

23.020.043.0

0.4%0.4%0.4%

0.2%0.2%0.2%

0.1%0.1%0.1%

18%20%19%

47,000t36,000t82,000t

24,000t13,000t37,000t

0.35% IndicatedInferredTOTAL

11.06.8

18.0

0.6%0.5%0.6%

0.3%0.3%0.3%

0.2%0.1%0.2%

19%15%17%

31,000t22,000t53,000t

20,000t8,000t

28,000t0.45% Indicated

InferredTOTAL

6.24.2

10.0

0.7%0.6%0.7%

0.4%0.4%0.4%

0.3%0.2%0.2%

18%10%15%

22,000t17,000t38,000t

15,000t6,000t

21,000t

This resource was estimated and released to the ASX in November 2010 and superseded theprevious coincident inferred resources published in March 2010 and March 2009. RMResearch anticipates that the confidence level of the resource will improve in the near-termas the results of the infill diamond drilling programmes that were part of the BFS are compiled.

Venture Minerals commissioned a Bankable Feasibility Study on the Mount Lindsay Projectbased on the latest mineral resource. A group of well-credentialed and independentConsultants are engaged in this process. The drilling component of the study was completedin late 2011 and the focus is now on completing process plant and mine design, gaining all thenecessary approvals and permits, and product marketing. .

RM Research expects that the BFS will result in further proof of robust economics, in line withthe Pre Feasibility Study completed in March 2011. Outlines of the major outputs from the PreFeasibility Study (PFS), as well as comparables to the May 2010 Scoping Study, are tabulatedbelow. It is worth noting that only the indicated resources were used in the PFS.

Pre Feasibility Study Results PFS ScopingStudy

March-11 May-10Annual Throughput mtpa 1.3 1.0

Estimated Capex $m 162 130

Net Cash per Annum at Full Production $m 72 80

Assumed Equity Financing Ratio 50% 50%

Assumed Debt Financing Ratio 50% 50%

Mine Life years >8 >7

Internal Rate of Return 42% 55%

Discount Rate Applied 10% 10%

Assumed Tin Price US$/t 28579 18000

Assumed Tungsten APT Price US$/10 kg 31725 Na

Assumed Magnetite concentrate price US$/t 147 120

Assumed Exchange Rate US$ 0.90 0.80

Overall Tin Recovery 73% 71%

Tungsten Trioxide Recovery 84% 80%

TABLE 1: Mt LindsayResources (sourceVenture Minerals LtdASX Announcements25/11/2011).

TABLE 2: Mt LindsayProject, Pre-FeasibilityStudy (source VentureMinerals Ltd ASXAnnouncements1/3/2011 and14/05/2011).

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RM Research has conducted some financial modelling onthe latest high-grade mineral resource using the PreFeasibility Study parameters. The model is un-geared andproduces the following Project net present values. Asexpected, the project economics are highly leveraged totungsten price, tin price and, in particular, exchange rate.The revenue contribution is estimated at 46% (tin), 40%(tungsten trioxide) and 14% (magnetite).

RM Research considers this revenue split as a positive characteristic as it mitigates the risk ofbeing exposed to a single commodity.

One of the other significant advantages that theMount Lindsay Project possesses is its proximityto existing infrastructure, which translates intocompetitive operating costs and manageablecapital expenditure requirements. Below is atable of sensitivities, which highlights the impactthat changes to key parameters have on theProject NPV:

Offtake MOU’s ExecutedOn 15 February 2012, the Company announced an MOU with four potential off-take partnersin respect to the DSO hematite. This includes tier one commodity traders and verticallyintegrated iron ore companies. We anticipate further updates on these MOU’s next quarter.

PEER COMPARISON

Venture Minerals’ core asset is the Mount Lindsay Tin-Tungsten Project. The current mineralresource at Mount Lindsay totals some 120,000 tonnes of contained tin/tungsten metal,including 82,000 tonnes of contained tin. It now represents one of the world’s largestundeveloped tin projects. RM Research has attempted to identify companies with similarworld-wide undeveloped tin resources.

Figure 2 indicates that Venture Minerals has discovered a world-class tin deposit.

DiscountRate

Project NetPresent Value

10% $159,463,503

15% $105,918,706

20% $68,748,458

Sensitivity NPV Change

+/-10% Sn price +/-22.1%

+/-10% WO3 price +/-20.7%

+/-10% Fe price +/-6.4%

+/-10% Exchange Rate -/+44.8%

+/-10% Capex -/+11.5%

+/-10% Op Costs -/+21.6%

TABLE 3: Mt LindsayProject Net PresentValues (source RMResearch internalfinancial modelling).TABLE 4: Mt LindsayProject Net PresentValues sensitivityanalysis (source RMResearch internalfinancial modelling).MOU’s signed with fourpotential offtakepartnersMt Lindsay is a uniqueasset whose peercomparison is notstraightforwardFIGURE 2: Mt LindsayProject Net PresentValues sensitivityanalysis (source: RMResearch internalfinancial modelling).Comparative containedmetal metrics supportour view that VentureMinerals owns a worldclass asset

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OTHER PROJECTS

Maitland Channel Project, Western AustraliaThe project consists of one granted ExplorationLicence, eight Exploration Licence Applicationsand two Prospecting Licence Applicationslocated in the North Eastern Goldfields(Western Australia) and covers approximately140 kilometres of the Tertiary channel system.

Outside of the Maitland Channel Project area,the same channel system hosts the LakeMaitland, Lake Way, Centipede and Yeelirriecalcrete-hosted uranium deposits.

The Project is spread over four areas includingWest Maitland, covering 15 kilometres ofpalaeochannel, Southeast Maitland – includes24 kilometres of the Maitland Palaeochannelapproximately 46 kilometres to the southeast ofthe Lake Maitland deposit. The project includes

an un-drilled radiometric Uranium anomaly. Irwin covers 47 kilometres of the MaitlandPalaeochannel flanking Lake Irwin, 130 kilometres to the southeast of the Lake Maitlanddeposit. Southeast Yeelirrie – 70 km down-channel from the large Yeelirrie deposit andcontains 54 kilometres of the same channel system.

Paulsens South Project, Western AustraliaThe Paulsens' SouthProject covers acombined area of 73km2 flanking NustarMining CorporationLtd’s (“Nustar”)Paulsens Gold Mine inthe Ashburton MineralField (WA).

Paulsens has Indicatedand Inferred Resourcesof 1.4 Mt @ 11.7 g/t Aufor approximately540,000oz Au, and aProbable Reserve of 1.2Mt @ 10.7 g/t Au forapproximately 412,000oz Au. The Paulsens

mine has just commenced producing and is targeting 80,000 oz Au per annum.

The southern portion of the project is located 4 kilometres southwest of Paulsens and coversa similar geological setting where northwest trending folds are developed in a faulted packageof Melrose Argillite and gabbroic sills in the nose of the Wyloo Dome.

The northern licence project area covers rocks younger than the Paulsens sequence, inparticular the Duck Creek Dolomite, which has been successfully prospected further to thenorthwest and southeast for Carlin-style gold mineralisation. Exploration targets includeMerlin, Electric Dingo and Ibex. In the north, the project includes approximately 5 kilometresstrike extent of the Marra Mamba Iron Formation, Hamersley Group, which hosts largequantities of iron ore. With declining Brockman ore resources, the Marra Mamba is regardedas the next generation of Australian iron ore with currently defined deposits including WestAngelas (Robe), Silvergrass (Hamersley Iron), Hope Downs (Hancock Prospecting – RioTinto), and Mining Area C (BHP Billiton).

In 2011 Venture Minerals completed a Joint Venture Agreement with Rumble ResourcesLimited to acquire at least a 70% stake in the Paulsens South Project. During the December2011 quarter Rumble Resources completed a detailed magnetic survey and we areanticipating commencement of drilling in 2012.

FIGURE 3: VentureMinerals Ltd LakeMaitland Project(source VentureMinerals Ltd, AnnualReport 2009).

FIGURE 4: VentureMinerals Ltd PaulsensProject South Project(source VentureMinerals Ltd, AnnualReport 2009).

The project flanks thePaulsens Mine, which isproducing around80,000 ounces of goldper annum at low C1 +C2 costs

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DIRECTORS AND MANAGEMENT

Mel Ashton Non-Executive ChairmanMr Ashton holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Western Australia, isa fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants and a fellow of the Australian Institute ofCompany Directors. Mr Ashton also currently holds a number of board appointments,including a National Director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, Director of TheHawaiian Group of Companies and a Director of Cullen Wines (Australia) Pty Ltd. He iscurrently the Chairman for Empired Ltd and Gryphon Minerals Limited.

Hamish Halliday Managing DirectorMr Halliday has 15 years of both corporate and technical experience within the miningindustry. Mr Halliday co-founded Venture Minerals and was instrumental in the acquisition ofits tenement portfolio including the Mt Lindsay Tin-Tungsten Project. Prior to VentureMinerals, Mr Halliday founded Adamus Resources Limited, a company he ran as CEO for 6years growing the company from a A$3 million float to a multi-million ounce emerging goldproducer. Mr Halliday also co-founded Gryphon Minerals a very successful junior explorerdefining a significant gold resource in West Africa.

Andrew Radonjic Technical DirectorMr Radonjic is a geologist with over 20 years experience in mining and exploration, with aspecific focus on gold and nickel in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. Andrewbegan his career at the Agnew Nickel Mine before spending 15 years in the Paddington,Mount Pleasant and Lady Bountiful Extended operations north of Kalgoorlie. He has fulfilled avariety of senior roles which gave rise to three gold discoveries totalling in excess of 3 millionounces in resources and the development of over 1 million ounces.

Bruce McFadzean Non-Executive DirectorMr McFadzean has 30 years of senior management, mining and processing including stints atBHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, the “start up” of 4 new mining operations and covering a range ofcommodities including Iron Ore, Diamonds, Gold and Nickel. Bruce was recently GeneralManager Operations and later Operations Director with Territory Resources where he wasinstrumental in the start up of the 1.5Mtpa Francis Creek Iron Ore (NT).

John Jetter Non-Executive DirectorMr Jetter has extensive international finance and merger and acquisition experience havingheld senior management positions with investment bank JP Morgan. He is a solicitor andbarrister, Supreme Court of Victoria and holds a number of Board positions includingChairman of Rodenstock GMBH, Germany and Non Executive Director of ASX listed OttoEnergy Limited.

Brett Dunnachie Chief Financial Officer & Company SecretaryMr Dunnachie is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree. Brett isthe Chief Financial Officer and was appointed Company Secretary in February 2007. Prior tojoining Venture Minerals he was an audit manager at a major chartered accounting practice.He is also the Company Secretary for Gryphon Minerals.

Malcolm Hillbeck Consultant EngineerMr Hillbeck is an engineer with over 40 years operational experience in senior managementand corporate management roles. Malcolm's operational roles include Savage RiverMagnetite Mine, Rosebury Base Metal Mine and Cleveland Tin Mine.

Dr. Stuart Owen Exploration ManagerDr Owen is a geologist with over 10 years experience in mineral exploration for a range ofcommodities including gold, nickel, base metals, uranium and diamonds. Stuart was seniorgeologist for Taipan Resources NL when Taipan discovered and took the Paulsens golddeposit through feasibility study (now a mine targeting 80,000 oz Au per annum) andexploration manager for Adamus Resources Ltd from an ASX float to a stage where acompany-making resource of over 1.0 million ounces gold had been defined for on theSouthern Ashanti Gold Project at a discovery cost of less than US$10 per resource ounce.

One of VentureMinerals’ core strengthsis the assembly ofprofessionals withextensive experience

This experience spansevery aspect of miningproject developmentincluding exploration,construction andproduction as well aslegal and commercialexpertise

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BULLS AND BEARS

The Bulls Say Substantial exploration upside from large tenement position in prospective geology. Many

untested targets to be assessed.

Favourable commodity mix with tungsten being a rare, strategic metal with strong marketfundamentals associated with Chinese market control. Iron ore prices are also forecast toincrease substantially, whereas the lack of new tin mining operations and the boost todemand from lead-free solder supports strong market interest for all new suppliers.

The identification of high grade shoots of both tin and tungsten mineralisation have thepotential to significantly enhance project economics by adding to the mine life.Identification of DSO hematite prospects also provides short-term upside.

The Mount Lindsay project is favourably located in north-west Tasmania in close proximityto power, rail, road and port infrastructure.

Venture Minerals possesses a Board of Directors and Senior Management team capableof advancing mineral projects from exploration to feasibility study status and on to theconstruction and mining operations.

The Company is less than 6 months away from delivering a Bankable Feasibility Study onthe Mt Lindsay Project. Robust economic results from the Pre Feasibility Study, whichwas conducted by independent Consultants, indicate that the BFS will illustrate solidfundamentals

Venture Minerals has a healthy cash balance of $14m. This should be ample to fundcompletion of the BFS over the next 6 months

The Bears Say It is likely that Venture Minerals will require more funding by late 2012 to develop the

project. A 1.3 million tonne per annum operation is estimated to require $162 million ininitial capital expenditure, some of that is likely to be equity funded.

Possibly approval delays and environmental sensitivities could result in minor delayshowever RM Research considers this a minor risk as Mt Lindsay is situated in anestablished mining district with existing infrastructure.

CONCLUSIONRM Research believes that Venture Minerals is a well managed mineral explorationcompany with a major project (Mt Lindsay) that has the potential to be commercialised in thecurrent commodity cycle.

RM Research considers that Venture Minerals has significant upside from current shareprice levels. Our financial modelling derives a NPV of A$106 million on the Mt Lindsay Tin-Tungsten Project, using a discount rate of 15%. This equates to $0.46 per share based on thecurrent capital structure of the Company, which is substantially higher than the current shareprice of A$0.33.

RM Research rates Venture Minerals as a Speculative Buy with a near term price target ofA$0.65 based on the tin-tungsten project NPV, the Company’s healthy cash balance and thevast exploration potential of its project portfolio including the DSO hematite prospects that canbe bought into production very quickly and for intial capital cost of less than A$5 million. Therecent signing of an MOU in respect to offtake is further endorsement for the DSO story.

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Page 8 Copyright © 2012 RM Research Please refer to important disclosures located at end of this report.

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Registered OfficesPerthLevel 2, 6 Kings Park RoadWest Perth WA 6005

Phone: +61 8 9488 0800Fax: +61 8 9488 0899

PO Box 154West Perth WA 6872

Email / [email protected]. rmresearch.com.au

RM Research Recommendation CategoriesCare has been taken to define the level of risk to return associated with a particular company.Our recommendation ranking system is as follows:

Buy Companies with ‘Buy’ recommendations have been cash flow positive for some time and have a moderate tolow risk profile. We expect these to outperform the broader market.

Speculative Buy We forecast strong earnings growth or value creation that may achieve a return well above that of thebroader market. These companies also carry a higher than normal level of risk.

Hold A sound well managed company that may achieve market performance or less, perhaps due to anovervalued share price, broader sector issues, or internal challenges.

Sell Risk is high and upside low or very difficult to determine. We expect a strong underperformance relative tothe market and see better opportunities elsewhere.

Disclaimer / DisclosureThis report was produced by RM Research Pty Ltd, which is a Corporate Authorised Representative of RM Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL 2221938). RM Research received A$35,000(plus GST) for the compilation and distribution of four research reports. RM Research has made every effort to ensure that the information and material contained in thisreport is accurate and correct and has been obtained from reliable sources. However, no representation is made about the accuracy or completeness of the information andmaterial and it should not be relied upon as a substitute for the exercise of independent judgment. Except to the extent required by law, RM Research does not accept anyliability, including negligence, for any loss or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on, the material contained in this report. This report is for information purposes onlyand is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. The securities recommended by RM Research carry no guarantee withrespect to return of capital or the market value of those securities. There are general risks associated with any investment in securities. Investors should be aware that theserisks might result in loss of income and capital invested. Neither RM Research nor any of its associates guarantees the repayment of capital.WARNING: This report is intended to provide general financial product advice only. It has been prepared without having regarded to or taking into account any particularinvestor’s objectives, financial situation and/or needs. Accordingly, no recipients should rely on any recommendation (whether express or implied) contained in this documentwithout obtaining specific advice from their advisers. All investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financialsituation and/or needs, before acting on the advice. Where applicable, investors should obtain a copy of and consider the product disclosure statement for that product (if any)before making any decision.DISCLOSURE: RM Research and/or its directors, associates, employees or representatives may not effect a transaction upon its or their own account in the investmentsreferred to in this report or any related investment until the expiry of 24 hours after the report has been published. Additionally, RM Research may have, within the previoustwelve months, provided advice or financial services to the companies mentioned in this report. As at the date of this report, the directors, associates, employees,representatives or Authorised Representatives of RM Research and RM Capital may hold shares in Venture Minerals Ltd.