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1NCMaduro needs to stay true to anti-US rhetoric to maintain his political credibility and prevent domestic instabilityO’Reilly, 4/17 – (Andrew, Founder and former Editor-in-Chief of Latin America News Dispatch, BA in journalism from the University of Pittsburgh, MA in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University; also citing Larry Birns with the Council for Hemispheric Affairs, “U.S.-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim,” Fox News Latino, 17 April 2013, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-experts-claim/)//HO

While the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for sure is that relations between the United States and the administration of President-elect Nicolás Maduro will continue to be as tense as

under the late Hugo Chávez, experts said.¶ After voting on Sunday in a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish relations with the U.S. “in terms of equality and respect,”

Washington will always try to undermine his rule.¶ These words followed a steady rhetoric on the campaign trail of Maduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and causing disruptions in Venezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor

unions and causing electric power blackouts. ¶ Experts argue that given Maduro’s anti-American sentiments leading up to the election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory and the

polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a change in relations between the countries.¶ It’s hard to see [Maduro] backing off his rhetoric in the aftermath of the election...Americans will insist on a level of respect that he is not going to give them.¶ The death of Hugo Chávez put Maduro and the rest of the Venezuelan left in a difficult position. Chávez’s charisma held the movement together and his social spending allowed him to skirt the dicey issues of rising inflation, high crime and a fledgling economy.¶ While the current election results are still being debated, how Maduro faces the country’s mounting problems – both politically and socially – are what will decide [if] he and Chavismo survive his six-year term.¶ In 2009, Chávez led a successful push for a constitutional referendum that abolished term limits for the offices of President, state governors, mayors and congress members. The previous provision established a three-term limit for deputies and a two-term limit for the other offices, but with the 2009 referendum, Chávez – or any other leader – could ostensibly stay in power indefinitely.

Maduro does not have the charm or power to hold the Chavista movement together nor make Venezuelans forget about the problems plaguing their nation. If Sunday’s vote is any indication, Venezuela is torn between Chávez’s legacy and a dismal future, with the official results giving Maduro 51 percent of the vote to challenger Henrique Capriles’ 49 percent – although opposition sources

showed Capriles winning by more than 300,000 votes.¶ “Chávez could overcome the detractors because he was viewed as a national hero, Maduro doesn’t have that,” said Larry Birns

with the Council for Hemispheric Affairs.¶ To maintain his credibility within the Chavista movement and fend off opponents from within his own party, Maduro needs to maintain his opposition to the U.S. and continue to paint Americans as imperialist intruders, experts said.¶ “He’s got to worry about the opponents that

will pose a threat to his rule,” Birns said. “These are difficult times for Maduro and no one knows how the scenario will play out.”¶ For its part, the United States is not in better shape when it comes to its relations with Venezuela – or other Latin American nations. Diplomatic disputes with Venezuela and touchy relations with neighboring Bolivia and Ecuador have led to a schism between the United States and the countries in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas.

This turns the whole aff – destroys oil sector and economyLadislaw and Verrastro, 13 – (Sarah O. Ladislaw is co-director and senior fellow with the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Frank Verrastro is senior vice president and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS; “Post-Chavez Outlook for Venezuelan Oil Production,” 6 March 2013, http://csis.org/publication/post-chavez-outlook-venezuelan-oil-production)//HO

The winds of change are once again blowing in Venezuela. The recent announcement of Hugo Chavez’s passing has opened up a host of questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and the potential impact this leadership transition could have on Venezuelan oil production and global oil markets.¶ Venezuela is one of the largest oil and natural gas resource holders in the world. It is among the world’s largest oil producers (13th) and exporters (10th) and has historically been one of the United States’ largest sources of oil imports (4th behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico). Ever since the failed coup and the subsequent strike that brought about a short collapse in oil production in 2002,

followed by nationalization of the oil sector, onlookers have been waiting for indications that the regime’s approach to energy production would either fail once and for all or that some political change would bring about reform and rejuvenation of the energy sector. A political transition in Venezuela is now upon us but how it evolves could mean a lot for the energy sector and global energy markets.¶ Despite its enormous oil resources, Venezuela's oil production (regardless of whose figures you use) has long been in steady decline. In 2011 liquids production was 2.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) , down a million barrels per day since 1999. Some of this is reflects the changing cost and economics of Venezuelan oil production but field decline is significant and expertise and reinvestment are questionable and looking harder to come by. The internal technical and managerial capabilities of state run oil and gas company PDVSA have deteriorated since the 2002 strike and aftermath. Increasingly, PDVSA relies on contractors, as well as other private company partners, to keep the fields in production but reports state that contractors have not been paid in months and that the

political uncertainty in the country has even driven routine decision making to a halt.¶ The sustained political uncertainty has also slowed investment ; Russian and Indian companies were planning to invest in Venezuela's oil fields but so far have withheld incremental new money. China has not announced a new line of credit or extensions on its development-linked financing since last April.¶ At the same time that

production is dropping, highly subsidized domestic consumption of oil is increasing while revenue from exports is also declining . The United States remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports at 950,000 barrels per day in 2011, roughly 40 percent, plus another 185,000 barrels per day from the Caribbean that was Venezuelan sourced but those volumes area down as U.S. demand has declined and other crudes have become available. Venezuela's next largest export destinations are the Caribbean (31 percent) and then China (around 10 percent) . Venezuela sells to many of its Caribbean neighbors at below market rates due to extremely preferential financing relationships, including additional heavy subsidies

for Cuban exports. All of this culminates in an outlook for continued decline in oil production and a worsening economic outlook for Venezuela during a politically difficult time.¶ However, conventional wisdom argues that maintaining oil production is in the interest of any regime. Revenue from oil production is such a large part of Venezuela’s government balance sheet that no leadership could survive for long without a sustained cash flow that oil exports bring. The converse of this argument is that revenues generated by the energy sector are such an important source of power and influence in Venezuela that

there is potential for infighting over control of the sector. Moreover, the potential for strikes or instability among groups involved in the sector (some of whom have not been paid) could have additional negative impacts on production.¶ While oil markets have so far taken the news of Chavez’s demise in stride (many claim because the news was largely expected, others because the political

outcome is still so uncertain) an actual disruption in Venezuelan production could add pressure to an already difficult market outlook. The last year has produced a number of supply disruptions around the world from OPEC, the Middle East North Africa region, as well as non-

OPEC sources. If the economic outlook continues to improve and yield an increase global energy demand, if Iran sanctions remain in place, and if Venezuelan production be compromised, then oil prices would experience much more significant upside pressure from any new disruptions.

2NC Link Wall

Waffling on his stance on the US causes multiple sources of internal backlashJared Metzker (writer for Inter-Press Service) June 17, 2013 “Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations” http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/The new president’s waffling may be a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.¶ In addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavez’s own former political base. ¶ Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez, more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuela’s parliament and whose supporters believe he was the rightful heir to the presidency.¶ Maduro’s legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to “emulate” his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.

The plan makes Caprile’s gambit to peel away moderate support from disillusioned supporters of Maduro sustainable – magnifies our linksBen Cohen (writer for Commentary Magazine) July 30, 2013 “In Venezuela, Chavez Still Haunts Maduro” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/07/30/in-venezuela-chavez-still-haunts-maduro/Legal documents have similarly been missing from another controversial case involving Richard Mardo, a parliamentarian from the opposition MUD coalition. Mardo is accused of receiving funds of approximately $100 million–the source of this money has not been specified–and of declaring only a tiny a fraction of this sum. However, Henrique Capriles, the MUD leader who stood against Maduro during the April election, is adamant that Mardo is the victim of entrapment. As with El Nacional, the real goal here, say MUD supporters, is to silence the opposition by throwing the charge of corruption–an offense normally leveled at the government–in its direction.¶ Given how agonizingly polarized Venezuelan politics have become, the absence of mass street demonstrations might seem surprising. Capriles, though, has eschewed this approach, opting instead for a strategy of patiently exposing Maduro’s corruption wherever it appears, in the hope of weaning away disillusioned supporters of the regime. Whether this method is sustainable is an open question; the emergence of a “birther” movement in Venezuela, which claims that Maduro was actually born in Colombia and is demanding that the president follow Barack Obama’s example by releasing his birth certificate, indicates that the more uncompromising opponents of Venezuela’s regime are determined to get rid of it sooner rather than later.

Plan also independently causes a military coupBenedict Mander (writer for the Financial Times, Caracas correspondent) April 7, 2013 “Maduro needs military’s loyalty” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5ce622a-9f71-11e2-b4b6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2asuzlqGPFrom the moment the late Hugo Chávez first burst on to the national stage with a military coup 21 years ago, to his final resting place in the barracks where he led that failed uprising, his close connection with Venezuela’s army was never in any doubt. ¶ But the former lieutenant colonel’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, who is widely expected to win Venezuela’s presidential elections on April 14, does not enjoy the same relationship with the military, whose power grew markedly under Chávez, and could now even pose a threat to Mr Maduro.¶ Although Mr Maduro has ample experience as a trade union activist, legislator and diplomat, he may struggle to maintain the fierce loyalty that Chávez created among senior military officials, perhaps the most powerful faction in the disparate movement known as “chavismo”. ¶ “There are concerns in the military high command about Maduro,” says Antonio Rivero, a retired general who left the army in 2010 in protest at Cuban influence, and is now affiliated with the opposition. Some question Mr Maduro’s legitimacy, others his competence, while others are suspicious of his status as a civilian.¶ “Chávez knew how to talk to the army, he knew how to demand obedience and discipline. Maduro hasn’t the slightest idea,” adds Gen Rivero, describing him as “the complete opposite to Chávez” in the army’s eyes. “It’s an issue that is being monitored, evaluated and discussed internally, both by chavistas and non-chavistas.” ¶ The army’s presence in government is strong. During the former tank commander’s 14-year rule, he spread martial ideals in an attempt to achieve a “civic-military union”. Today, former military officers run 11 of the 20 state governorships held by Venezuela’s United Socialist party, and account for a quarter of the cabinet. ¶ That includes the defence minister, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, who explicitly backed Chávez’s handpicked successor after his death on March 5. “Now more than ever, the armed forces must unite to ensure Maduro is the next elected president of all Venezuelans,” the admiral said.¶ The opposition, already scandalised by a 115,000-strong militia set up by Chávez to defend his “Bolivarian revolution”, strongly rejected Admiral Molero’s statement, pointing out that the constitution forbids the armed forces to take sides. The opposition even claims there is a plan to use military resources to intimidate Venezuelans into voting for Mr Maduro.¶ Mr Maduro has been backed by other key military figures too, including Diosdado Cabello, the head of the national assembly who participated alongside Chávez in the 1992 coup attempt, even though he is widely considered Mr Maduro’s most powerful rival. With his strong military following, some question how long that loyalty will last. ¶ Either way, the army’s support is crucial for any president. “Very lamentably, political power in Venezuela has always depended on two things: oil wealth and the armed forces,” said Rocío San Miguel, who runs Citizen Control, which monitors Venezuelan security issues.¶

Ms San Miguel argues that the armed forces are split into opposing factions, some of which are concerned about the prospect of a Maduro presidency. ¶ Especially sensitive is how he will respond to accusations concerning a group of high-ranking officers dubbed the “Cartel of the Suns”, because of the gold stars worn on their epaulettes. Under Chávez, Venezuela became an important transshipment hub for trafficking cocaine to the US and Europe.¶ Walid “The Turk” Makled, a drug lord captured in 2011, claims he had as many as 40 generals in his pay.¶ Since 2008, the US Treasury Department has also accused a number of senior military and

government officials of being “kingpins” and collaborating with the Colombian rebel group FARC, including the exchange of weapons for drugs. They include former defence minister and head of the army, Henry Rangel Silva, now governor of Trujillo state, and former interior minister and retired naval officer Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, now governor of Guárico state. The government has denied these accusations.¶ Military officials have also been accused of involvement in other dubious activities, such as illegal gold mining after 43 soldiers were captured in southern Bolívar state by irate indigenous groups this year, and petrol smuggling, a business which could yield as much as a billion dollars each year.¶ Whether Mr Maduro is seen as a threat or a help to the military’s interests remains to be seen. Gen Rivero thinks he may have to become “very generous” to keep some officers happy, through pay rises or handing out new cars. However, Venezuela may have trouble keeping up the immense spending on Russian arms that Chávez indulged in to keep the military happy.¶ Most analysts reject the threat of a coup, but it is not inconceivable. “In the last century, five years haven’t gone by without groups of officers being involved in conspiratorial activities,” said Domingo Irwin, a Venezuelan military historian. Indeed, Hugo Chávez was one of them

Uniqueness

Maduro Sustainable

Maduro will stay in power now – diplomatic spats are only assurances of regime stabilitySanchez, 6/4 – (W. Alex, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, “Venezuela’s Maduro attempts to assert his presidency,” 4 June 2013, http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/06/04/venezuelas-maduro-attempts-to-assert-his-presidency/)//HO

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has had a rough couple of months. After controversially winning the

April 14 elections, he has been trying to strengthen his power in the eyes of the international community. Several nations whose leaders were close to his mentor, the

late Hugo Chávez, have recognized Maduro’s victory. And in early May, he embarked on a “good will” tour, visiting Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay . Nevertheless, other governments are still hesitant to recognize Maduro’s leadership, namely the U.S. What’s more, recent diplomatic incidents, including verbal spats with the governments of Colombia and Peru, are showing a controversial side of Maduro’s personality and testing his leadership skills.¶ The (latest) controversy with Colombia was prompted by a recent meeting between Governor Henrique Capriles Randonsk i, the Venezuelan opposition candidate who ran against Maduro in April, and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Maduro saw this meeting as an insult to his government, as Capriles has been trying to rally international support to overturn the election results. Maduro derided the excuse that the Santos-Capriles meeting was a “misunderstanding ” by the Colombian government, claiming instead that Bogotá is the center of a conspiracy that aims to overthrow the post-Chávez government. In retaliation, the Venezuelan leader declared that his country may review its role in the ongoing Colombian peace process between the government and the FARC guerrillas. It is safe to assume that Santos knew beforehand that a meeting with Capriles would stir controversy in Caracas, meaning this may have been a tactical move by the Colombian head of state to see how Maduro would react. Furthermore, the extent of Venezuela’s influence in the ongoing negotiations is debatable, accusations that the Colombian rebels use Venezuelan territory as a safe haven notwithstanding.¶ In early May, Maduro also butted heads with the (now) former Peruvian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rafael Roncagliolo, who called for “tolerance and dialogue ” to stop violent protests in Venezuela after the controversial results of the elections. This statement provoked the wrath of Maduro, who declared on May 3 that Roncagliolo should not get involved in Venezuelan domestic affairs and that “we [Venezuelans] do not care what the Peruvian minister thinks about Venezuela.” As for Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, who was arguably sympathetic to Chávez, he has been ambivalent regarding Maduro. Nevertheless, Humala saved himself from further embarrassment – or at the very least from entering into a new war of words with Maduro – as Capriles decided at the last moment to temporarily suspend a trip to Lima that had been scheduled for Tuesday, June 4. If the Peruvian leader had met with Capriles, we would have witnessed an even angrier Maduro. Meanwhile, some Peruvian politicians have not missed the opportunity to attack Humala over the Capriles trip. For example, Congressman Luis Iberico provocatively declared that “the only reason why [Humala] would not receive Capriles is for ideological reasons or for another type of dependency towards Chavismo.”¶ Apart Bogotá and Lima, Maduro has been unable to secure high-level visits from Chávez’s friends in Moscow and Beijing. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev skipped Venezuela when he did a mini-tour of Latin America in February, traveling instead to Brazil and Cuba. At the time of this writing, Chinese President Xi Jinping is on a tour of the Western Hemisphere,

with stops planned in Costa Rica, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, as well as the U.S. – but no Caracas.¶ Given that the opposition movement led by Capriles has lost its momentum, it is unlikely that Maduro’s presidency is in jeopardy. And while Capriles’ trips to Bogotá and to Lima, if the

latter ever happens, may gain him some international sympathy, it seems clear that Maduro will remain in power as Chávez’s successor. If anything, statements towards the governments of Colombia and Peru may serve the purpose of making it clear that Maduro will not tolerate any questioning of his electoral victory. At the domestic level, look for the pro-government media (read the entire media following the sale of Globovision ) to showcase that message to the Venezuelan masses as an example of Maduro’s statesmanship.

Anti-US

No engagement now – Maduro cut off all ties with the USEl Universal, 7/20 – (El Universal, “Maduro: Venezuela will have "zero tolerance" for aggressions of Washington,” 20 July 2013, http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130720/maduro-venezuela-will-have-zero-tolerance-for-aggressions-of-washingto)//HO

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday described as "terminated" his government-initiated talks with Barack Obama administration. He stressed he would implement a "zero tolerance" policy for "aggressions" on Venezuela.¶ "My policy as president is zero tolerance for gringo aggression against Venezuela. I am not going to stand any verbal aggression against Venezuela, neither political nor diplomatic. Enough is enough! Stay away with your empire. Do not mess any more with Venezuela," said Maduro during a ceremony of military promotions in Cojedes state, central Venezuela.¶ The Venezuelan president also reiterated his rejection and condemnation of the statements issued by Samantha Power, the Washington ambassador nominee to the United Nations, on Venezuela. "When she went to Congress, she went crazy and started to attack Venezuela just like that. She started to say that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in

Venezuela."¶ Maduro mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant asylum to former CIA agent Edward

Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information on espionage programs.

Maduro’s Snowden offer proves anti-americans sentiment is still strong in Venezuela Wall Street Journal, 7/7/13, (O’Grady, staff writer, “Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to Snowden”, 7/07/2013, U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578590503856740838.html)//LOH

Edward Snowden, the former U.S. government contractor wanted for leaking sensitive national intelligence, is a victim of "persecution" by "the world's most powerful empire," Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said on Friday. Mr. Maduro offered asylum to the fugitive, who was running out of prospects. Nicaragua and Bolivia have chimed in with similar offers. What plans are afoot to spirit Mr. Snowden from his Moscow airport sanctuary—

assuming he accepts refuge in Latin America—are of course secret. Mr. Maduro would have us believe that his gesture is a demonstration of Venezuela's commitment to free speech and its fierce opposition to withholding

information from the public. He also wants the world to know that he disapproves of secret government intelligence-gathering operations. Funny that. Venezuela has expressed no such righteous indignation about information suppression by allies. Take Argentina, which has recently refused to allow its special prosecutor Alberto Nisman to travel to Washington and brief a U.S. congressional committee about intelligence collected on Iranian and Hezbollah terror cells in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Nisman's 500-page report on the subject is public but in a July 1 letter to the U.S. Congress he said that by order of the Argentine attorney general he has been "denied the authorization to testify before the honorable parliament." Mr. Maduro's

lack of concern about Argentina's information suppression deserves attention. His offer of refuge to Mr.

Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to distract Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a thumb in Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else. Venezuela has reason to fear increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent. This makes Iran crucial. Mr.

Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, who had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place in South American politics. Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John

Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement with Caracas last month, post-Chávez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of

the once-wealthy oil nation deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an even more loyal geopolitical ally and strategic partner of Russia

and Iran. Mr. Maduro's presidency is still viewed as illegitimate by roughly half of the Venezuelan

electorate, who voted for challenger Henrique Capriles in April. The official rate of the currency known as the "strong bolívar" is 6.3 to the dollar. But a shortage of greenbacks has forced importers into the black market where the currency trades at somewhere between 31 and 37. There are price controls on just about everything, producing shortages of food and medicine. Even so, inflation is now hovering at around 35%, which means that some vendors are skirting government mandates. In a free society with competitive elections, economic chaos

generally prompts a government response designed to mitigate hardship. Venezuela needs liberalization. But

that would threaten the profits of the military, which is largely running the country. When the nation ran out of toilet paper in the spring, it was the perfect metaphor for the failed state. But Mr. Maduro's foreign minister, Elias Jaua, responded by scolding Venezuelans for materialism, asking, "Do you want a fatherland or toilet paper?" If the government is saying that it doesn't give a damn about the economic death spiral, this is because it believes it has the nation in a head lock. State control of information—by a president who has now become the world's foremost defender of Mr. Snowden—is almost complete. The last large independent cable television station was finally sold in April and the independent print media market is shrinking. Another tool of repression, which Mr. Snowden supposedly abhors, is the ability to spy on citizens. Chávez had no compunction about recording the conversations of adversaries, and the practice continues under Mr. Maduro. Competing factions inside the government may even be getting into the act. Two recent high-profile cases—one involving a well-known government insider alleging crimes by members of the government in a conversation with the Cuban military, and another targeting an opposition politician—have increased the feeling among citizens that there is no such thing as a private conversation. Yet even a government that locks down the press and spies on its own citizens without answering for it needs allies. No nation can survive in full isolation, especially when its economic power collapses. Latin despots get this. Argentina is depositing goodwill in its account with Iran by blocking

Alberto Nisman's trip to Washington. Venezuela, by offering refuge to Edward Snowden, is undoubtedly making a similar offering to the enemies of its enemies.

No coop nowSnowden killed any potential for Venezuela-US engagementAhmed, 7/28 – (Soroor, “Snowden helps revive anti-US feelings in Latin America,” NVO News, 28 July 2013, http://nvonews.com/2013/07/28/snowden-helps-revive-anti-us-feelings-in-latin-america-2/)//HO

The Presidents of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, of Bolivia Evo Morales and of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega are ready to offer Snowden asylum.¶ In fact apart from Morales, Maduro and Ecuadoran President Rafael

Correa were recently in Moscow to attend energy summit. Besides other issues Snowden was definitely high on agenda during the meetings with Russian leaders. These Latin American countries have also developed close trade relationship with China, which too is a cause of concern for the United States.¶ Maduro said Venezuela was ready to offer him sanctuary, and that the details Snowden had revealed of US spy programme had exposed the nefarious schemes of the “empire” while Ortega said that it had received an asylum request from Snowden and could agree to it if circumstances permit.¶ Though Brazil, the largest country of the region, had not offered any asylum reports suggest that it is much disturbed over snooping by the NSA. The country is already passing through a phase of turmoil ahead of 2014 World Cup. Its foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, expressed “deep concern” over a report that appeared in O Globo newspaper at the weekend, which detailed how the US National Security Agency (NSA) had conducted extensive spying activities in Brazil.¶ This came after the Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, called in cabinet ministers to discuss the issue.¶ Brazil is among the most heavily spied country after Russia, China and Pakistan. It remains to be seen as to why the NSA

chose to spy non-adversarial countries of Europe, Asia and even Latin America.¶ In this uni-polar world it was expected that the anti-US feelings would subside. There was no Soviet or Chinese-backed Communist ideology to whip up this passion. Obama, in his initial years, did try to extent the hands of friendship

towards them. But NSA leaks have exposed everything once again.¶ The exploitation of almost all the countries south of the United States by Washington is not a new phenomenon. It has a long history. The CIA has in the past killed a number of Latin American heads of states.

Staging coups and counter-coups were not something unusual.¶ Snowden’s revelations––and earlier

WikiLeaks exposures––have made it clear that the United States have not given up its practice.¶ The role of European countries appear some what dubious. Though they are the victims of NSA design yet they eagerly agreed to the Washington diktat and got the plane of an elected President of a country grounded.¶ Thus like the United States they have alienated themselves from these countries, some of them energy rich. In the long run they may have to pay the price.

Default to newest evidence – Venezuela has no intention of cooperating with the US despite past signalsMinaya 13 (Ezequiel, “Venezuela Ends Attempt to Repair Diplomatic Relations With U.S.”, July 20, The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323993804578618223346497776.html)//DLGThe Venezuelan government has ended fledgling efforts to repair diplomatic relations with Washington in protest of comments made earlier in the week by Samantha Power, the nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who grouped the South

American country among nations carrying out a "crackdown on civil society."¶ Venezuela's foreign ministry released a statement late Friday that "categorically rejected" Ms. Power's statement and

criticized the State Department for backing U.S. President Barack Obama's choice for envoy

to the U.N. amid the controversy.¶ The ministry statement said that steps that began last month to normalize diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas have been shelved.¶ In June, Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Venezuelan counterpart on the sidelines of the general assembly of the Organization of American States held in Guatemala.¶ The meeting brought together the most senior officials from the estranged countries since Mr. Obama shook hands with Venezuela's then-leader Hugo Chávez in 2009. After the meeting between the top diplomats, both sides expressed hope that more talks would follow aimed at

repairing relations. The countries have not traded ambassadors since 2010.¶ "With the backing of the state department for the interventionist agenda presented by the candidate for ambassador, Samantha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela leaves for finished the processes initiated in the conversations of Guatemala," Venezuela's foreign ministry statement said.¶ During her nomination hearing before the U.S. senate committee on foreign relations Wednesday, Ms. Power said that as ambassador to the U.N., she would "stand up against repressive regimes, fight corruption, and promote human rights and human dignity." Part of that battle meant "contesting the crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela," she added, according to an official transcript. In a Friday briefing with reporters in Washington, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf called Ms. Power an "outstanding nominee," and added that "we fully stand by her."¶ Relations between Caracas and Washington have been strained since Mr. Chavez assumed the presidency in 1999. The fiery socialist called longtime U.S. foe Fidel Castro his mentor and was among the loudest opponents of U.S. influence in the region, often referring to the U.S. as the "empire." Mr. Chavez routinely accused the U.S. of plotting to overthrow his government and reserved some of his most scathing comments for former U.S. President George W. Bush. Mr. Chavez died in March after a nearly two-year battle with cancer.¶ Mr. Chavez's political heir, recently elected President Nicolás Maduro, has followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and aimed harsh rhetoric at Washington, which angered the new leader by backing calls for a recount of his slim election victory in April.¶

Despite the campaign-trail saber-rattling directed toward the U.S., Mr. Maduro and his government sent signals hinting at hopes for better relations with the U.S. that culminated in the June meeting with

Mr. Kerry.¶ Those hopes were seriously jeopardized when Caracas stepped into the

middle of the controversy surrounding U.S. National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden and offered him asylum in early July. Venezuela is widely seen as among Mr. Snowden's most likely destinations.

Relations and interactions are down the drainPTV 13– Press TV, (“No dialogue unless US changes imperialistic stance: Venezuela”, July 24, 2013, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/24/315416/us-must-end-imperialistic-stance-maduro/)//sawyerVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro says Caracas-Washington ties could not be normalized unless the US ends its “imperialistic attitude” towards Latin America.Improved relations with the United States “does not depend on just us, it depends on them (US). If they can rectify (this) and are able to, which I doubt , there will be another position; we will renew dialogue,” Maduro told a cheering audience in

the Caribbean state of Monagas on Tuesday. On Friday, Venezuela said it was ending efforts to improve ties with Washington that started in early June. The decision followed

remarks by US President Barack Obama’s nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations. During her confirmation hearing before a US Senate committee on July 17, Samantha Power pledged to oppose what she called a crackdown on civil society in a number of countries, including Venezuela. On July 18, Maduro denounced Power’s remarks

as “outrageous” and demanded “an immediate correction by the US

government.” Venezuela and the United States have not exchanged ambassadors since 2010. But on the sidelines of a regional summit in Guatemala in June, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua agreed that officials would “soon” meet for talks that could lead to an

exchange of envoys. But the strain in relations between the two nations have intensified following the US support for Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who disputed the results of the April presidential election, in which Maduro won the race with nearly 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Capriles. In March,

Caracas expelled two US military attaches on charges of making attempts to foment instability in Venezuela. Recently, Venezuela has offered asylum to Edward Snowden, a former technical contractor for the US National Security Agency (NSA) who is wanted in the United States for leaking details of Washington’s secret surveillance programs.

No cooperation now – Snowden, Power statementAP 13 – Associated Press (“maduro demands retraction”, July 18, 2013, http://www.sacbee.com/2013/07/18/5577833/maduro-demands-retraction.html)//sawyerVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has lashed out at Washington's U.N. ambassador-designate for what he called her "despicable" criticism of his government's human rights record.Maduro demanded Thursday evening that the United States retract Samantha Power's statement that Venezuela, along with Cuban, Iran and Russia, is guilty of a "crackdown on civil society."Power spoke Wednesday during confirmation hearings before a U.S. Senate

committee.Hopes were raised for improved U.S.-Venezuelan ties in June when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua met on the sidelines of a regional summit and agreed to fast-track talks for resuming ambassadorial-level ties absent since 2010. But prospects dimmed after Maduro later offered asylum to U.S. leaker Edward Snowden.

Recent controversy over Senate confirmation hearings derail further bilateral engagement BBC News 7/20, Section of the British Broadcasting Corporation responsible for gathering and broadcasting news and current events. It is the world's largest broadcasting news organization(BBC, "Venezuela 'ends' bid to restore full US ties" 7/20/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23387807)//ADVenezuela says it has "ended" steps towards restoring diplomatic ties with the US, after comments by the woman nominated as the next envoy to the UN. ¶

Samantha Power said this week she would seek to combat what she called the "crackdown on civil society" in countries including Venezuela. ¶ She was speaking at a US Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday.¶ The remarks prompted an angry

response from Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. ¶ "The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela hereby ends the process... of finally normalising our diplomatic relations," said Venezuela's foreign ministry in a statement.¶ It objected to Ms Power's "interventionist agenda", noting that her "disrespectful opinions" were later endorsed by the state department, "contradicting in tone and in content" earlier statements by

Secretary of State John Kerry.¶ Poor relations¶ ¶ Relations between the US and Venezuela have been strained in recent years. They last had ambassadors in each other's capitals in 2010.¶ Washington angered Caracas by backing the Venezuelan opposition's demand for a full recount of the presidential election in April to replace Hugo Chavez, who died in March.¶ Mr Chavez's anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, won the vote by less than two percentage

points. ¶ In June, the two countries had tentatively agreed to work towards improving their strained relations, after Venezuela freed and deported a US filmmaker who had been held on conspiracy charges.¶ During a regional summit in Guatemala, Mr Kerry said he had agreed with Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on an "ongoing, continuing dialogue" in order to "establish a more constructive and positive relationship".¶ He said the US wanted to "begin to change the dialogue between our countries and hopefully quickly move the appointments of ambassadors between our nations".¶ Mr Jaua said at the time that for Venezuela it was important to build a relationship based on the principles of mutual respect and no interference in internal affairs.

AT: Chavez DeathChavez death won’t boost relations – anti-US posture will remainSullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-9-’13 (Mark, “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAGWhile some observers contend that Chávez’s passing and the beginning of a new political era in

Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that

the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chávez’s death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced that two U.S. military attachés were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chávez’s sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachés, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan

Embassy in Washington).15 Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chávez

government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential campaign. On March 20,

2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that “Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections.” A senior U.S. official reportedly said that

such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly rejected the “allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.”17 Looking ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.

OilVenezuela will continue to oppose US engagement despite the oil relationship – oil is the exception, not the ruleHelios Global, 13 – (Helios Global, an asset tracking company with global presence, “Change in Venezuela Yields Political and Economic Uncertainty,” 29 April 2013, http://www.heliosglobalinc.com/world-trends-watch/?p=152)//HO

Nicholas Maduro’s narrow electoral triumph over opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski in Venezuela’s April 14 elections to serve out the remainder of the late president Hugo Chavez’s current

presidential term signifies a turning point in Venezuelan politics. Maduro’s victory has also reverberated beyond Venezuela’s borders. Due to its role as a major source of oil, the course of political events in Venezuela also has important implications for the world economy. The death of Hugo Chavez has also raised concerns about the prospects of social, political, and economic stability in Venezuela. The victory of Chavez’s heir apparent – Chavez and his supporters went to great lengths to ensure the survival of the Bolivarian Revolution launched by Chavez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (known by its Spanish acronym PSUV) – in a politically charged and polarized climate has already resulted in unrest and violence between Maduro’s supporters and his opponents. Venezuela’s increasingly

dire economic predicament has further exacerbated tensions across the country.¶ Despite a contentious bilateral relationship, Venezuela remains the fourth-largest supplier of imported oil to the United States. Given the peculiarities of its oil, namely, the category of relatively low quality heavy crude oil that represents the bulk of its oil capacity, Venezuela relies heavily on U.S. refineries located in the Gulf of Mexico that were designed to refine oil from Venezuela (and Mexico). Roughly forty-percent

of Venezuela’s oil exports are delivered to the United States. Consequently, the United States is Venezuela’s top trade partner. This is the case even as U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil have steadily declined in recent years. In 1997, the United States imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from Venezuela. In contrast, only about 1 million bpd of Venezuelan oil makes its way to the United States today. Venezuela also boasts major natural gas reserves, possibly the second-largest natural gas reserves in the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, Venezuela’s oil production capacity continues to

deteriorate due to mismanagement, corruption, and antiquated infrastructure.¶ With its emphasis on South-South cooperation, Latin American integration, and opposition to what it refers to as U.S. imperialism, Venezuela’s foreign policy has largely reflected its Bolivarian Revolutionary principles. Even as it has continued to serve as a major source of crude oil to the United States, Venezuela has also devoted significant diplomatic and economic resources toward checking U.S. influence in the Americas. Initiatives such as its Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (known by its Spanish acronym ALBA) have served to expand Venezuela’s influence across the region. This support has come in the form of diplomatic and, especially, economic assistance to governments led by leftist political parties and movements that are often

enmeshed in their own disputes with the United States, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Venezuela has also supported a number of militant groups in the region, most notably, the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym FARC) in neighboring Colombia.

Venezuela has also engaged closely with other left-leaning governments across the region, including Brazil, a rising regional and geopolitical power in its own right that is slowly emerging as a challenger to the United States.

Maduro will stay in power despite Venezuela’s oil wealthO’Brien-Bours, 13 – (Robinson, BA in History and Political Science from Ashland University, “Venezuela Election Results 2013: Maduro Pulls Razor-Thin Victory Over Capriles,” April 2013, https://www.policymic.com/articles/35011/venezuela-election-results-2013-maduro-pulls-razor-thin-victory-over-

capriles)//HO

If Maduro is able to hold onto power in the OPEC nation, his rule will see a continued deterioration in U.S.-Venezuelan relations. The former bus driver has publicly accused the United States of assassinating Hugo Chavez, and is widely expected to continue his predecessor's bellicose rhetoric towards the United States. Maduro will also maintain Chavez's socialist revolution, to the further detriment of Venezuela's

economy, safety, and liberty. The six years that he will sit in the presidential palace will likely see Venezuela continue to squander its natural resources like oil.¶ The razor-thin vote margin places Maduro on considerably weaker footing than originally anticipated. He was not handed an electoral mandate, and the Venezuelan people made it clear that they are

not as willing to place their trust in Nicolas Maduro as they were in Hugo Chavez. However, his victory does ensure that Chavez's legacy will remain intact and that the ghost of Chavez will remain in power for the next six years. But Maduro is no Chavez; he lacks the skill and charisma of his predecessor. He will help Chavez's legacy, yes, but he will help by reinforcing it as a legacy of economic disaster and eroding civil rights. Over the next six years, this narrow majority will reap what it has sown.

Inner-Circle

Maduro’s regime is stable, but at risk – he has to maintain cohesion among the Chavistas to stay in power AFP, 7/27 – (Agence France-Presse, “Maduro tested as Venezuela's economy worsens,” 27 July 2013, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130727/maduro-tested-venezuelas-economy-worsens)//HO

A hundred days after taking office, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has withstood opposition challenges to his election but is now being put to the test by a deepening economic crisis.¶ "Maduro has won the battle of legitimacy with the opposition," said political

analyst John Magdaleno, who said the president's political standing is secure both inside and outside the country.¶ The hand-picked successor to the charismatic Hugo Chavez, Maduro boasted of his government's staying power this week at a celebration marking the birthday of Simon Bolivar, the 19th century South American independence hero Chavistas revere.¶ "It's not 100 days. It's 100 years that the revolution will be

here: 100 years of the Bolivarian, Chavista, socialist revolution," Maduro declared.¶ The street violence, marches and counter-marches, and bitter exchanges of insults that followed Maduro's slender victory in the polls now appear to be behind him.¶ Though the election results are still disputed by opposition rival Henrique Capriles, tensions have eased in Venezuela.¶ "The intensity of the confrontation, the frequency of the verbal disputes, have gone down," said Magdaleno.¶ But the president still must show he can keep the Chavista ranks united and assert control over the decision-making process, he cautioned.¶ Since coming to office, Maduro has met with representatives of the business sector, owners of private media companies, and labor and religious leaders.¶ He has also visited various Latin American countries, and assumed the rotating leadership of Mercosur, a South American trading bloc that Venezuela recently joined as a

full member.¶ "Maduro has been gradually steadying himself, using stagecraft and propaganda, but he still must take concrete steps," said Maxim Ross, an economist at the Universidad Monte Avila.¶ Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said that, strikingly, Maduro has dared to involve himself in two issues that Chavez had always managed to avoid: corruption and crime.¶ "Chavez could avoid the issue because he did not pay a political price for the insecurity: he wasn't seen as responsible for it, and he just didn't talk about the noose in the hanged man's house," Leon wrote in the local press.¶ Over the past weeks, Capriles, the young opposition leader who galvanized the opposition in two election campaigns after years of losses to Chavez, has pursued a "crusade for the truth" both inside and outside the country, with mixed results.¶ He was received by the presidents of Colombia and Chile, to the fury of the Maduro government, but not by those of Mexico and Peru.¶ As he awaits a Supreme Court decision on his three month old challenge to the election results, the Miranda state governor faces an uphill battle in keeping his base motivated.¶ But he did succeed in creating

doubt about the honesty of Venezuela's election authorities.¶ "Although the electoral challenge no longer has the same relevance, the doubt did take hold. About half the country did not think the results were correct," Magdaleno said.¶ "He will continue making charges, probably going to international fora, but I don't think this will have enough of an impact to turn the legitimacy of the Maduro government, which is calculating the exact timing to produce the sentence of the Supreme Court so as to

undo the opposition electorate," he said.¶ The risks of economic decline¶ What could put Maduro at risk is the deepening impact on Venezuelans of a worsening economy, which experts say is rooted in stringent exchange controls in place since 2003 in an oil-exporting

country that relies heavily on imports.¶ The burdensome red tape and restrictions on businesses seeking dollars delay imports, generate shortages of stapes and raw materials, and at the same time exert powerful inflationary pressures.¶ The first quarter closed with record inflation of 25 percent, which exceeded pay increases, and shortages of basic goods are the

worst they have been in recent years.¶ "There is erosion of salaries and jobs, there will be inflation, the problem of food shortages will continue. The coming months will be ones of economic deterioration that could lead to social conflict," said Ross.¶ The government has responded by opening somewhat the spigot through auctions of dollars, but experts say it has not been enough.¶ Venezuela also has taken actions to crack down on price gouging and has arrested some public officials for corruption, but at the same time has continued to run up deficits and engage in expropriations.¶ A poll

by Datanalisis published this week found 58 percent of Venezuelans view the economic situation negatively, and more than 52 percent of Chavistas believe the government should work with the private sector to reactivate the economy.

Links

GenericMaduro has cut off ties with the US – the plan would force him to backpedalBercovitch, 7-21-’13 (Sascha, “With “Zero Tolerance to Gringo Aggression,” Maduro Cuts Off Venezuela-U.S. Talks” Venezuela Analysis, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9872)//JAGThe conversations that were started a month and a half ago between Venezuela and the United States have definitively ended, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced yesterday at an event of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense (REDI) in Cojedes state. “My policy is zero tolerance to gringo aggression against Venezuela. I'm not going to accept any

aggression, whether it be verbal, political, or diplomatic. Enough is enough. Stay over there with your empire, don't involve yourselves anymore in Venezuela,” he said. The announcement comes after controversial statements from Samantha Powers, President

Barack Obama’s nominee for U.S. envoy to the United Nations, who testified to the U.S.

Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on Wednesday that she would fight against what she called a “crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia,

and Venezuela.” In a statement written on Friday that marks the last communication between the two

countries, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua wrote, “The preoccupation expressed by the U.S. government regarding the supposed repression of civil society in Venezuela is unacceptable and unfounded. To the contrary, Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses a robust system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the unrestricted practice and the respect of fundamental human rights, as the UN has recognized on multiple occasions.” Jaua spoke with US Secretary of State John Kerry in a meeting in Guatemala last month that Kerry described as the “beginning of a good, respectful relationship.” However,

relations cooled after Bolivian President Evo Morales’ presidential plane was prevented from entering the airspace of four European countries following false information that U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden was on

board, and Maduro’s subsequent offer of political asylum to Snowden. “I told Jaua to convey to

Kerry [in June] that we are ready to have relations within the framework of equality and respect,” Maduro said yesterday. “If they respect us, we respect them. But the time has run out for them to meddle in the internal affairs of our countries and publically attack us. Their time has run out, in general in Latin America, and in particular with us.” Neither country has had an ambassador in the other nation since 2010, when late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez refused the entrance of newly-appointed US Ambassador to Venezuela Larry Palmer for “blatantly disrespectful” remarks, and Venezuelan Ambassador to the US Bernardo Alvarez was expelled from the country several days later.

Venezuela has a negative attitude toward US relations despite Chavez’ deathSullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-9-’13 (Mark, “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations” Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAGWhile some observers contend that Chávez’s passing and the beginning of a new political era in Venezuela could

ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chávez’s death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced that two U.S. military attachés were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chávez’s sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachés, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two

Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington).15 Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chávez government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that

Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that “Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections.” A senior U.S.

official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly rejected the “allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.”17 Looking ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.

Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards the USShinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-’13 (Paul, “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?” http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAGHe also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press

conference in Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These relationships are controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him enough support to keep the country – and its

shadow commerce – stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed

with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in

different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."

Pro-US policies drain Maduro’s military and elite support. Shinkman, 13 --- national security reporter at U.S. News and World Report (4/24/2013, Paul D., “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond? New Venezuelan president at a crossroads for major threat to U.S.,” http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond, SJ)

"[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah

says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. [CHART: What the DEA Refuses to Admit About Drugs] U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two

countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."

Plan threatens Maduro’s legitimacy and distracts from structural problems. Shifter, 13 --- president of the Inter-American Dialogue (5/3/2013, Michael, “What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Venezuela Relations?” http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3297, SJ)

A: Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue: "The prospects for improved relations between the

United States and Venezuela under the Maduro administration now appear rather dim. Maduro's rhetoric directed at Washington has been notably tough and aggressive, as he seeks to shore up support among the Chavista base. Arresting a U.S. citizen and accusing him of

stirring up trouble in Venezuela is a vintage Chávez tactic, aimed at diverting attention from the country's myriad, fundamental problems. Lacking Chávez's political skills and common touch, Maduro is in a particularly shaky position, compounded by questions of legitimacy following the April 14 elections. To date, personnel picks and policy signals

coming out of the administration have been confusing and mixed. Some in Maduro's team are hardliners, while others, such as Calixto Ortega--the recently appointed representative in Washington--

are more open and moderate. Ortega, for example, was very active in the so-called Boston Group, an

effort that sought to facilitate dialogue between Chavista and opposition lawmakers. As long as Maduro's political standing remains precarious, he will be severely constrained in his ability to pursue closer ties with the United States. There is no appetite or interest in Washington to

adopt punitive measures and apply sanctions against Venezuela. In light of Maduro's confrontational rhetoric and actions--and disturbing incidents of violence--no one is calling for a rapprochement. Still, assuming that things begin to settle down, and given that other governments have already recognized Maduro, it would be surprising if Washington didn't eventually come around and deal with the practical reality."

Plan drains Maduro’s PC and triggers riots. Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, “Foreign Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela,” http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, SJ)

The narrow vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique

Capriles has refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral

commission is standing firm on Maduro’s victory.¶ For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed forward under Maduro.¶ What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or

allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest.¶ If Maduro feels compelled to reduce fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuel—which cannot be

sustained—is one of the most crucial social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents

per gallon.¶ Maduro has inherited a “sinking ship” and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuela’s energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com.¶ “The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration

and new technology would be priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social programs,” according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon.¶ A top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize.

Close victory means Maduro’s PC is vulnerable. Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl, “Venezuela Post-Election: Can Maduro Govern?” http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, SJ)

In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continued decline of Venezuela’s

economy. The results also mean that political divisions within Maduro's coalition will worsen. Maduro’s lack of political experience and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might hold together the numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even

with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro responds to voters’ frustrations, from high inflation to rising violent crime rates, will come under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quick improvements in these arenas, he may find himself facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and widely considered Maduro’s main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a period of self-criticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase

his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles.¶ Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chávez enjoyed, Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive. Add to this a reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduro’s ability to run the state appear poor at best.¶ Maduro's narrow victory also dashes any expectations that he might turn pragmatic when dealing with such issues as the Venezuelan economy. Maduro’s first goal will likely be to show himself in charge and to satisfy Chavistas. This will likely lead to a doubling-down of Chávez’s policies and to profligate spending on social programs within Venezuela.

Maduro won’t cooperate with US – anti-Americanism key to credibility as he assumes powerLabott 13 (Elise, “U.S.-Venezuela relations likely to remain tense after Chavez”, March 6, CNN, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/06/u-s-venezuela-relations-likely-to-remain-tense-after-chavez/)//DLGBut in the words of one senior official, the outreach to Caracas has been a "rocky road." Talks have been short on substance and never left U.S. officials with the feeling Venezuela was interested in mending

fences.¶ Maduro's first news conference, a good portion of which was devoted to railing against the

United States, was not very encouraging. As he prepares to stand in upcoming elections to replace

Chavez, Maduro's anti-American rhetoric is dismissed in the United States as political jockeying to shore up his political base.¶ This tried-and-true method of using America as straw man worked for Chavez, which is why U.S. officials acknowledge that the campaign season not be the best time to break new ground or expect tangible progress. Officials say they will continue to speak out in favor of a more productive relationship between the two countries, but the ball, officials say, is firmly in Venezuela's court.¶ "The opportunities are not there yet for the U.S. to engage" says Carl Meacham of the Center for Strategic and

International Studies. "For the next month or so, Maduro has to show he is even more Chavez than Chavez was. That means he is going to be more anti-American, more anti-capitalist, more anti-systemic. As far as a rapprochement, I don't see it coming anytime soon."¶ How Venezuela conducts those elections will be a major test. For years Washington had accused Chavez and his supporters of abusing the electoral system by intimidating opposition and controlling the

media during his 14-year rule. Now, the United States has made clear it expects a free and fair election in accordance with Venezuela's Constitution and charters.¶ While Venezuela's relationship with the United States

revolved around Chavez, it is unlikely his death will dramatically affect ties in the near term. If, as expected, Maduro wins the presidency, the new boss will likely be the same as the old one.¶ "Chavez's supporters and their Chavismo ideological movement were dealt a blow with the

death of their charismatic leader, but his ministers have been preparing for this transition, and the challenge to all sides will be measured in weeks and months, not days" said Dan Restrepo, who served as an adviser to Obama at the National Security Council during his first term.¶ With crime

at an all-time high, continued drug-trafficking and a faltering oil sector, Meacham says the new Venezuelan government will be looking inward for the foreseeable future.¶ " The U.S. doesn't want to be in a situation where it is viewed at all as getting involved in domestic affairs of Venezuela," he

says. "If Maduro wins, he will be trying to keep the focus on domestic issues, and that could put the resolve of Chavismo to the test. And that could mean the hardest

days between the U.S. and Venezuela is not behind us, but ahead of us ."

Venezuela rejects talks with the US hardening anti-US sentiment Democratic Underground, 7/20/13, (From the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cancillería Vzla, “Venezuela has terminated talks with the United States”, 7/20/2013, http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023300822)//LOH

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically rejects the statements issued to the Foreign Relations Committee of the U.S. Senate, by Samantha Power, candidate for Ambassador of that country to the Organization of the United Nations, where she claimed it would be part of her work to "fight the repression of civil society" conducted by several countries, among them Venezuela. Her disrespectful opinions were endorsed and supported by the State Department today, contradicting the tone and content of the statements made by the Secretary of State John Kerry, in his June meetings with the Chancellor of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Elias Jaua, in the city of Antigua, Guatemala. The concerns expressed by the U.S. government about the alleged repression in Venezuela into civil society are unacceptable and unfounded ; on the contrary, the Bolivarian Government of Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses a strong system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the practice of and unconditional respect for fundamental human rights, as has been recognized by the United Nations on many occasions and situations (scenarios). However, the world constantly expresses concern about the repressive practices exercised by the United States, including the violation of human rights in the illegal internment camp of Guantanamo, the massacres of civilians by drones and the lamentable persecution unleashed against Edward Snowden, a victim of fierce repression, for exercising his right to dissent and denouncing practices of the Government of the United States which violate, among other things, the right to privacy of all people in the world, enshrined in Article 12 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, in addition to the blatant intent to violate the rules governing the right to asylum, widely recognized by civilized nations. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela reiterates that, as has been expressed by the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in order to build a good relationship with the U.S. government, requires practicing mutual respect and the full and total recognition of the principles of

sovereignty and self-determination. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will

never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs . Due to the backing of the State Department for interventionist agenda raised by the candidate Ambassador, Samatha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela terminates the processes initiated during the Guatemala talks, which were designed to stabilize our diplomatic relations.

Maduro’s anti-US policy is key to the dominance of the inner Chavista circleWalser, 13 – (Ray, Ph.D., MA, BA in International Relations from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, former Foreign Service officer with the U.S. Department of State, “Beware of Venezuela's Paranoid Anti-Americanism,” RealClearPolitics, 19 March 2013, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/03/19/beware_of_venezuelas_paranoid_anti-americanism_117526.html)//HOTwo weeks after the death of President Hugo Chavez from cancer, Venezuela’s interim chief and Chavista

presidential candidate Nicolas Maduro is increasingly resorting to wild, paranoid, anti-American outbursts in an effort to convince Venezuelans he has the machismo needed to fill El Commandante’s boots.¶ Following initial claims that the U.S. or others had killed Chavez, Maduro followed up on March 13 by saying he intends to form a scientific commission to review the facts of the 58-year-old leader’s death. “We have the intuition that our commander Chavez was poisoned by dark forces that wanted him out of the way,” Maduro told an audience on March 12. Such a commission, however, will have to collect its evidence from a corpse that was inadequately preserved and may be too decomposed for the embalming Maduro had initially

promised.¶ The war of words between Maduro and opposition presidential candidate Henrique

Capriles also continues to heat up. Maduro and company want to undercut Capriles by making Venezuelans believe that Capriles enjoys official backing from the U.S. Such attacks will only worsen in advance of the April 14 presidential elections.¶ On March 17,

Maduro went further, saying that the U.S. is now preparing a desperate plot to kill Capriles. “I call on President Obama—Roger Noriega, Otto Reich [both conservative, former State Department

officials], officials at the Pentagon and at the CIA are behind a plan to assassinate the right-wing presidential candidate to create chaos.”¶ Attacks on the U.S. are integral to the strategy of Maduro and the inner Chavista circle. Their current course aims to inflame the nationalistic militancy of Chavez’s followers. It is a calculated effort to distract Venezuelan voters from grave violations of the constitutional order and stark domestic challenges—inflation, fiscal deficits, devaluations, crime, and increasing food shortages—that have worsened since Maduro took de facto control of the government in early December 2012.¶ Governability and stability in Venezuela before and after the elections could become a major challenge. The Miami Herald’s veteran Venezuela watcher Andres Oppenheimer suggests that the April 14

elections will be neither fair nor genuinely free.¶ Maduro’s wild accusations also lower expectations for swift improvement in relations with the U.S. The limited leverage that the U.S. still poses over Venezuela resides in its commercial, financial, and energy links and in the frayed democratic consensus in the inter-American community. Like it or not, the Obama Administration finds itself drawn into Venezuela’s growing crisis of governability caused by the increasingly irresponsible behavior of Chavez knock-offs like Maduro.

Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards the USShinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-’13 (Paul, “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?” http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAGHe also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by

the West and imperialism." These relationships are controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him enough support to keep the country –

and its shadow commerce – stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never

took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they

enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan

president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But Maduro has

never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."

CounternarcoticsVenezuela doesn’t want cooperation on narcoticsToothaker, Christopher ‘08Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (“Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US”, USA Today, 8/31) http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htmVenezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian

cocaine now passing through its territory.¶ ¶ In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation.¶ ¶ "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation

programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement.¶ ¶ President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005,

accusing its agents of espionage.¶ ¶ Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said.¶ ¶ U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters said.¶ ¶ He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004,

reaching an estimated 282 tons (256 metric tons) last year.¶ ¶ On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased.¶ ¶ Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful.¶ ¶ Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.

Venezuela will prefer a unilateral approach to counternarcotics nowToothaker, Christopher ‘08Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (“Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US”, USA Today, 8/31, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htm)CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest

barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005, accusing its

agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said. U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters said. He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004, reaching an estimated

282 tons (256 metric tons) last year. On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased. Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful. Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.

Venezuela won’t cooperate on drugs with the U.S. nowDOS 13 (“2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report”, March 5, Bureau Of International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLGC. National Goals, Bilateral Cooperation, and U.S. Policy Initiatives¶ The Venezuelan government has maintained only limited, case-by-case counternarcotics cooperation with the United States since the cessation of formal cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2005. Since 2005, the United States has proposed that the Venezuelan government sign an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral counternarcotics MOU that

would allow for expanded cooperation. Venezuelan officials regularly made clear that Venezuela would neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics. The Venezuelan government rarely shares information with the United States on money laundering or drug trafficking. Since 2009, when former

Interior and Justice Minister El Aissami prohibited police officers from receiving training abroad without the Ministry's prior approval, Venezuelan law enforcement authorities have not participated in U.S.-sponsored counternarcotics training programs.¶

Bilateral cooperation with the United States in 2012 included of the deportation of Puerto Rican Oscar “Cali”

Martínez Hernández to the United States. In 2012, Venezuela detained four Colombian citizens who are wanted by the United States and deported all but one of them to Colombia in November.

Venezuela has refused US efforts to cooperate over drugsDOS 10 (“International Narcotics Control Strategy Report”, March, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLGVenezuela has failed demonstrably to make sufficient efforts to meet its obligations under international ¶ counternarcotics measures set forth in Section 489(a) (1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as ¶ amended. ¶ This Determination takes into account

actions taken by the Government of Venezuela during the past 12 ¶ months. Venezuela has ignored, or refused, the majority of United States Government offers to work ¶ towards greater cooperation on counternarcotics. An official letter from the U.S. Ambassador on July 15, ¶

2008, and a follow-up diplomatic note of March 11, 2009, requesting facilitation of a meeting to discuss ¶ counternarcotics were not answered. On May 13, 2009, Venezuela’s

National Anti-Drug Office (ONA) ¶ Director declined to meet with the U.S. Charge d’Affaires, informing the U.S. Embassy that the meeting ¶ would require authorization from the Venezuelan President or the

Foreign Minister. ¶ Venezuela’s importance as a transshipment point for drugs bound for

the United States and Europe ¶ continues to increase. Corruption within the Venezuelan

Government and a weak and politicized judicial ¶ system contribute to the ease with which illicit drugs transit Venezuela. Trafficking through Venezuela ¶ increased from an estimated 50 metric tons of cocaine in 2004 to an estimated 300 metric tons in 2008. ¶ The ONA periodically reports seizures of illicit drugs, but the Venezuelan Government does not share the ¶ necessary data or evidence needed to verify seizures or the destruction of illicit drugs. The U.S. Coast ¶ Guard generally has received permission from the Government of Venezuela to board suspect Venezuelan ¶ flagged vessels operating in the Caribbean.

Venezuelan authorities, however, require the return of ¶ confiscated vessels, people, and

any contraband located during these operations. Upon return to ¶ Venezuela, crew members are often released.

Empirics prove – Venezuela rejected US drug assistance 5 years ago and will do so again nowAP ’08 (Associated Press, “Venezuela rejects U.S. bid for anti-drugs pact”, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26487635/ns/world_news-venezuela/t/venezuela-rejects-us-bid-anti-drugs-pact/#.UfFyfdI3vLM, 8/31/08)//MGVenezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of

Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue,

Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and

inopportune, " saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming

setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a

statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement

Agency in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused

to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking , White House drug czar John Walters said.

Venezuela empirically doesn’t cooperate on drugsGAO, ‘9 (Government Accountability Office, July, “DRUG CONTROL U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined” Report to the Ranking Member, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, http://www.gao.gov/assets/300/292722.pdf) //JAGIn mid-July, the U.S. Special Coordinator for Venezuela37 traveled to Venezuela to meet with Venezuelan officials

in an attempt to re-start dialogue. The day prior to his trip, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs stated in congressional testimony that Venezuela had “for the first time in many years, expressed a willingness to explore improved relations with the United States…[and] we have told Venezuela that we would like to explore this diplomatic

opening.” When the Special Coordinator arrived in Caracas, however, he was told that Venezuelan officials had cancelled all of his appointments. In the end, he was only able to meet with one Venezuelan legislator.

Oil

Plan would be upopular—Maduro chose to work with Russia over the US on oilGlobal Post, 7/2, (Staff, “Maduro reaffirms Venezuela's alliance with Russia”, 7/2/2013, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/agencia-efe/130702/maduro-reaffirms-venezuelas-alliance-russia)//LOH

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro showed here Tuesday that he plans to pick up where late predecessor Hugo Chavez left off in relations with Russia. "Hugo Chavez generated a great respect and love for Russia. We have inherited that love," Maduro said during a meeting at the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "We have come to confirm our desire to reinforce and expand the strategic alliance with Russia," the Venezuelan leader said. "During the last decade we have forged a map of cooperation in various areas. We move forward on the

energy front, that is, oil and gas, and in provision of equipment for the

petroleum sector," Maduro said. The new president's first visit to Moscow included the signing of an accord between Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA and Russian counterpart Rosneft to carry out joint projects in the Andean nation. Russian utility Inter RAO EES also reached an accord with PDVSA to build a power plant in Venezuela. Putin said he and Maduro reaffirmed their "common position to pursue the course of strategic cooperation in all ambits." The Russian also praised Maduro for "firmly taking the baton" from Chavez, who died in March after a long battle with cancer, and praised the late Venezuelan head of state as "a great and sincere friend of Russia, a strong and valiant man." Maduro took time during his visit to attend a ceremony in northwest Moscow to mark the re-naming of a street in Chavez's honor. Chavez, who traveled to Russia on nine occasions, sought to institutionalize bilateral economic cooperation and bought billions of dollars worth of arms and military equipment from Moscow. Venezuela turned to Russia after the United States cut off sales of military materiel to Caracas, including spare parts for the F-16s combat planes Washington sold the Andean nation in the 1980s.

Plan drains Maduro’s PC and triggers riots. Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, “Foreign Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela,” http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, SJ)

The narrow vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique

Capriles has refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral

commission is standing firm on Maduro’s victory.¶ For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed forward under Maduro.¶ What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or

allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest.¶ If Maduro feels compelled to reduce fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuel—which cannot be

sustained—is one of the most crucial social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents

per gallon.¶ Maduro has inherited a “sinking ship” and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuela’s energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com.¶ “The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration

and new technology would be priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social programs,” according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon.¶ A top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize.

Link MagnifierClose victory means Maduro’s PC is vulnerable. Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl, “Venezuela Post-Election: Can Maduro Govern?” http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, SJ)

In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continued decline of Venezuela’s

economy. The results also mean that political divisions within Maduro's coalition will worsen. Maduro’s lack of political experience and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might hold together the numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even

with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro responds to voters’ frustrations, from high inflation to rising violent crime rates, will come under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quick improvements in these arenas, he may find himself facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and widely considered Maduro’s main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a period of self-criticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase

his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles.¶ Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chávez enjoyed, Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive. Add to this a reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduro’s ability to run the state appear poor at best.¶ Maduro's narrow victory also dashes any expectations that he might turn pragmatic when dealing with such issues as the Venezuelan economy. Maduro’s first goal will likely be to show himself in charge and to satisfy Chavistas. This will likely lead to a doubling-down of Chávez’s policies and to profligate spending on social programs within Venezuela.

Impacts

Regional Influence Scenario

Anti-Americanism K2 ALBA

ALBA founded on Anit-Americanism Maduro needs to keep this alliance to be perceived as a credible regional leader IISS, 6/1, (Antônio Sampaio, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy June–July 2013, “South America After Chávez”, Pages: 63-70, Volume: 55, Edition number: 3, Date: 01 June 2013, http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2013-94b0/survival--global-politics-and-strategy-june-july-2013-532b/55-3-06-sampaio-81b1)//LOH

From fists in the air to military salutes, there was plenty of revolutionary posturing from left-wing leaders – and even Hollywood actor Sean Penn – at the 8 March 2013 funeral of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. While many of the 32 heads of state in attendance came from Latin American countries that receive cheap oil from Venezuela, others, such as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, saw in Chávez a leader of a global anti-American movement . After kissing the coffin, Ahmadinejad raised his fist in solidarity. The charismatic leader will be sorely missed by this group, especially because he leaves behind a state with a diminishing ability to sustain the largesse that characterised Venezuelan foreign policy during his 14-year rule. Chávez’s death heralds the end of an era for his allies. Despite enormous economic and security challenges at home, Chávez pursued a defiant foreign policy, forging alliances that deeply irritated the United States and propounding regional integration initiatives that rivalled those of Brazil, South America’s aspiring leader. Chávez spearheaded the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), a group named for the Venezuelan revolutionary leader Simon Bolívar that comprises eight countries ruled by left-wing governments with varying degrees of anti-Americanism. He also led the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), an organisation that includes almost all countries in the Americas, with the notable exception of the United States and Canada. Chávez created these organisations to increase his influence abroad and counter that of Brasilia, which promotes the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) as the main network of regional political cooperation. Both his death and Venezuela’s economic and security crisis pave the way for Brazil to advance its own strategy in South America. Venezuela’s declining economy and regional influence contrasts with its progress in the 2000s, which created ideal conditions for Chávez’s foreign policy. International crude prices rose by 400% between 1999, the year of his inauguration, and 2008. During the same period, the aggressively interventionist foreign policy of the United States under President George W. Bush gave Chávez’s anti-American rhetoric a wider appeal, not only in Venezuela’s deeply unequal society but also some of the poorest countries in the region. Increased oil revenues and intense anti-Americanism allowed Chávez to lead a restricted but loyal

group of countries. Ahmadinejad’s emotional tribute to Chávez in Caracas reflects the ambitious and expensive foreign policy Venezuela pursued. Constrained by sanctions and isolated by Western powers, Iran not only received 20,000 barrels of petroleum per day from Venezuela between November 2009 and

September 2010, but also benefitted from Caracas’ diplomatic support and military cooperation.

ALBA is strong now and also based on anti-neoliberal ideology Juventud Rebelde, 8/1, (Staff, “Presidential Summit Strengthens Regional Alliance”, 8/01/2013,http://www.juventudrebelde.co.cu/cuba/2013-08-01/presidential-summit-strengthens-regional-alliance/)//LOH

The principles of integration and complementariness of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) have been strengthened, said the vice-president of the Cuban Councils of State and Minister José Ramón Machado Ventura. The presidential meeting in the 12th ALBA Summit had a remarkably positive outcome, said Machado. In an exclusive with Prensa Latina News Agency, Machado said that the inclusion of Saint Lucia as ALBA’s new member shows the strength, authority and prestige achieved by ALBA. This new addition increases the impact of the programs implemented through this organization, he said. ALBA aims at a greater integration of the countries of the continent, strengthening economic ties through cooperation and continuing the development of social and educational programs, he said. He highlighted the benefits of the establishment of an economic area that links ALBA, PETROCARIBE and the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), which represents the fulfilment of one of this 12th summit's goals, addressed to strengthen the regional economic relations . Likewise, he stressed that the statements and agreements adopted at the ALBA Summit and at the Social Movements Summits, which took place at the same time, have several points of agreements which shows that both summits are in line with each other’s goals and purposes. Machado Ventura pointed out that the political declaration agreed by heads of state and government against the international espionage carried out by Unites States, and the denunciation, once more, of the assault against Bolivian president Evo Morales performed by several European countries with the intention of forbidding him to fly over their air space. At the closing ceremony of the 12nd Summit - which was attended by the Cuban vice president along with representatives of Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Dominica, Ecuador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Lucia, ALBA country members -, the presidents signed a document called the Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, which represents a clear denunciation of capitalism's intentions of reviving, through new mechanisms, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (ALCA), which has been defeated since 2005.

ALBA—Venezuela Key

ALBA key to regional power, if split the countries lose bargaining power and it destroys credibility EL UNIVERSAL, 7/31, (Staff, “Maduro claims political and social aspects are bound together”, 7/31/2013, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130731/maduro-claims-political-and-social-aspects-are-bound-together)

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro referred to the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) as "the materialization of hope" in view of the organization's both efforts to improve education quality and progress towards

eradication of hunger and poverty in the continent. Maduro's words were uttered at the 12th ALBA Presidential Summit held in Guayaquil, Ecuador -an event also attended by the leaders of Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador. In addition to saying that ALBA was an illiteracy free territory, Maduro noted that the alliance is working towards the construction of a new economic model aimed at showing how the neoliberal architecture based on free trade is impoverishing nations and restricting progress. "We have also demonstrated that the economic and social aspects are brothers; they cannot remain apart as neoliberalism claimed. The economy was hand over to transnational companies and the peoples were given just crumbs." Earlier, the summit's host, Rafael Correa, called for union and said, " If split, we will continue to be considered as the backyard. If split,

transnational capitals will impose conditions on us. Together, it will be us

laying down the conditions on that capital for the benefit of our peoples, " DPA reported.

ALBA—Regional Integration Impact

Venezuela is crucial to ALBA and their expansion of regional integrationMorning Star, 7/31, (Staff, “Presidents push for greater regional ties at Alba summit”, 7/31/2013, http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/136023)//LOH

Cuban Vice-President Jose Ramon Machado Ventura praised Ecuadorian leader Rafael Correa and Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro today for their fight against US imperialism. Mr Machado said greater Latin American integration was aiding development across the region during the closing session of the 12th summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alba) in Ecuador. But he stressed that social movements should lead the charge. About 10,000 people marched through Ecuador's biggest city Guayaquil on Tuesday in support of greater integration. And about 200 representatives of the groups involved joined the summit today to propose greater economic , political and cultural ties

across the region . Mr Maduro said Alba heads of state had backed the social movements' proposals. The summit also discussed the role of women, food sovereignty and changes in production. Mr Maduro said the conference had been a "good day of work. "Alba is driving our comprehensive development model with democracy and equality, strengthening the new independence. "Latin America and the Caribbean are following the path indicated by (independence hero Simon) Bolivar and rescued by the historical force of (Hugo) Chavez, thanks to President Correa," he said. The summit was the first without former Venezuelan president Mr Chavez, who spearheaded the Alba project to strengthen Latin America's hand against US imperialism. "Chavez lives in every struggle of our peoples for dignity. Today Ecuador paid tribute to him. Thanks brothers," Mr Maduro added. Mr Correa pointed to the differences between Alba and the US-sponsored Organisation of American States on Tuesday. He asked the summit how the peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean could continue to support the OAS, given that its venue is the nation "maintaining a criminal blockade on the island of Cuba." He said the blockade openly violated 50 per cent of OAS articles and has been condemned by the UN for 21 years in a row. The summit's push for greater integration also saw an agreement to set up a multinational TV network. The station will broadcast the speeches by Alba heads of state and government on political, economic and social issues.

ALBA goes global – solves poverty and other social things also unilateral action by Venezuela will be resented Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30, (Xll ALBA Summit in Ecuador - Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30/2013, http://www.tortillaconsal.com/albared/node/2241)//LOH

Progressive forces have made substantial advances in the region over the last few years, following the failure of neoliberal policies and the determination of

powerful elites to impose free trade frameworks on our peoples, to the point of wanting to turn our peoples into instruments to satisfy market needs. Those advances empowered the majorities through an increase in the militancy of social movements and the arrival in power of revolutionary governments in Latin America and the Caribbean, which have brought tangible improvements to our peoples' quality of life. However, at the moment we are witnessing the appearance of new forms of exploitation by way of the imposition of tools like bilateral investment protection treaties and the workings of international arbitration bodies like the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (CIADI), which prioritize the interests of capital over the interests of society, those of the natural world and even of democratic institutions, in the context of proliferating Free Trade Treaties. It is by means of these new mechanisms of domination that our

countries' stability is placed at risk – including our very economic solvency – on the basis of legal processes vitiated from the start by nullity, abuse and the collusion of special interests. Undoubtedly, the cases of Oxy and Chevron in Ecuador constitute clear examples of these practices, for which reason we express our backing to this sister country affected as it is by those practices, but, in different degrees, these extend to other countries too. None of the foregoing implies an outright rejection of Foreign Direct Investment, rather the need for an intelligent relationship with it, permitting its use for the benefit of nations rather than its optimization to their detriment. For that reason, integration mechanisms

like ALBA are indispensable insofar that, as a block, we are able to impose conditions that prevent the predominance of capital interests over those of the population. On the other hand, we also make clear the right and the need of our peoples to use in a sustainable and responsible way their non-renewable natural resources, which have the potential to be used as an important source of economic development, social justice and the definitive welfare of our peoples, with the clear recognition that the leading imperative of our time – and our region – is to fight poverty and immiseration. In that respect, we reject the extremist positions of particular groups which, under the slogan of anti-extraction, systematically oppose the use of our natural resources, demanding that this should only be done with the prior consent of individuals and communities living around those sources of wealth. In practice, that would make it impossible to take advantage of that resource option and ultimately compromise the successes that have so far been achieved in social and economic terms. ALBA proposes working together so as to ensure progressively the guaranteed provision at no cost of education, health care, support for people with disability, among other areas, as high quality public services. We should relaunch social programmes in all the ALBA countries. To that end, we propose no longer turning our countries into free trade zones but

rather into zones free of hunger, illiteracy, immiseration and

marginalization. We seek to extend this focus throughout Latin America and also to Africa and other parts of the world so that, within the framework of South-South cooperation, we can multiply the benefits of these programmes. While some big multinational businesses enter these parts of the world with predatory intentions, ALBA seeks to prioritize and enhance the human person wherever possible.

ALBA working on regional cooperation also expanding to BRIC cooperation—the plan is unpopular and perceived as unilateral expansion destroys ALBA credibility Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30, (Xll ALBA Summit in Ecuador - Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30/2013, http://www.tortillaconsal.com/albared/node/2241)//LOH

That demands an integral and alternative vision of development, not limited only to seeking trade agreements that subject us to the dictatorship of markets, the privatization of basic services or imposing precarious employment in the name of competition. To the contrary, we should guarantee productive development in those areas of activity where we can promote synergies, counting on the genuine strengths of our countries. Especially in areas like energy , internal regional

trade , food production , intermediate industries , investments and finance . Equally, we should work out new relationships internationally, for which reason that idea will be proposed to the so called BRICS countries. Additionally, we agree the formation of a permanent multi-disciplinary consultative ALBA group to be alert to risks and to address those need in countries, or groups of countries, that require a high level of analysis given the complexity of the social and economic problems they face. Furthermore, bodies like the Organization of American States along with certain of its components, like the Inter-American Human Rights System merit deep changes so as to place them effectively at the service of our peoples rather than in the service of powerful special interest groups like the media empires and other interests cloaked as NGOs. For that reason we urge the need to move the seat of the Inter-American Commission for Human Rights to a State Party to the American Human Rights Convention. Addressing the principle of the indivisibility of human rights, we consider it intolerable that certain human rights prevail over others. And too, it is necessary to set aside the ill-considered idea of Western NGOs that only States violate human rights. No doubt at all exists that other protagonists – such as corporations – can also violate those rights. ALBA calls for a conference against fascism in Caracas next September 11th in homage to our comrade President Salvador Allende on the 40th Anniversary of his murder. ALBA resolves to form a legal-technical team to study the preparation of a demand against the United States of North America for the implanting of a system of mass espionage around the world in violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights along with other international legal norms for the next session of the UN General Assembly. Taking into account the important results achieved in Haiti in the area of cooperation , the ALBA countries have decided to reinforce that same cooperation in the areas of health care , education and social programmes . In the same way. It has been decided to make an immediate evaluation of the special plan for Haiti so as to give it new momentum and to study funding alternatives so as to make the social programmes contained in that plan sustainable.

ALBA represents a post hegemonic from of regional cooperation Riggirozzi, 2012, (Riggirozzi, Pía, New Political Economy, Volume 17, Number 4, 1 September 2012 , pp. 421-443(23), “Region, Regionness and

Regionalism in Latin America: Towards a New Synthesis”, http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/cnpe/2012/00000017/00000004/art00003)/loh

Latin American regional governance today represents a conglomerate of commercial, political and trans-societal welfarist integration projects. In this overlapping and sometimes conflicting scenario what Latin Americanness should mean, and how integration projects should respond to current challenges of global political economy are being redefined. The focus of the paper is twofold: to better understand current regional transformations and to discuss what new developments mean for how we theorise non-European regionalism. Looking at the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas and the Union of South American Nations we ask: How are we to understand regional agreements that are grounded in different systems of rules, alternative ideas and motivations that contest `open regionalism'? We argue that Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) represent different pathways to regional building, creating foundations for post-hegemonic and post-trade regional governance. We thus challenge New Regionalist approaches that assume regionalism as taking place within and modelled by neoliberal economics, establishing the debate around `old' vs. `new' regionalism. As these categories are limited in grasping the full meaning and implications of post-hegemonic regional orders, we discuss UNASUR and ALBA as `arenas for action' to understand divergent practices, outcomes and types of regionness emerging in alternative regional spaces in South America.

ALBA is key to regional stability Hirst, 2010, ( Joel D. Hirst: International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations, “The Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas - Hugo Chavez’s Bold Plan”, 11/2/2010, http://ibde.org/component/content/article/111-the-bolivarian-alliance-of-the-americas-hugo-chavezs-bold-plan.html)//LOH

“In this way, we fully agree that the ALBA will not become a reality under mercantilist criteria or based upon the selfish interests of private profit; or for one nations benefit at the expense of others…” WITH THIS STATMENT and the flourishing of their pens, on December 14, 2004 Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro signed into life a bold new integration mechanism for Latin-America and the Caribbean. Thus began the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA), “…a geopolitical, geo-economic, social, cultural and ideological organization.” Initially a reaction to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, a Clinton era plan for a hemispheric wide trade pact, the ALBA was founded to serve as a geopolitical counterweight to the United States. As the ALBA takes shape, its core principles are becoming clear. It is a statist agreement meant to facilitate government-to-government interaction based upon the principles of solidarity, cooperation, fair trade, fight against poverty and social ills, and the joint development of member countries. The proposal seeks to open room for government intervention, allowing the state to move beyond regulation and arbitration into the direct delivery of “social justice” to the majority poor of their countries. What started as a simple agreement to share goods and services between the governments of Havana and Caracas has surged forward with stunning speed and success to become an important player in the daily lives of millions of people across member countries, and a powerful political block in its

own right. After only six years, the ALBA boasts a membership of eight countries, namely Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda and St. Vincent and the Grenadines – with Iran, Syria and Haiti as observers. Together, the member countries encompass a landmass of 2.5 million square miles, 70 million people and a GDP of over $600 Billion. In its short history, ALBA has held ten presidential summits. They have signed dozens of joint declarations and agreements, and have established social, political, and economic councils and a secretariat to oversee and evaluate their achievements. The ALBA countries have begun work on twelve “Gran-National” priority project areas. These projects, and their corresponding “Gran-National” companies, are fostering the sharing of technical knowledge and fomenting trade in basic goods and services between countries. While success has been mixed, some notable advances have been made, including the establishment of an ALBA bank with $1 billion in capital, the creation of a regional trade currency called the SUCRE, and the initiation of 17 large-scale development projects across the region. Through ALBA Communications, these South American states have purchased a Chinese satellite, at a cost of over $400 million, and are running a fiber-optic cable from Havana to Caracas. They have purchased a handful of important television stations in member countries and have established hundreds of radio stations, with an online news wire service for downloading documentaries, news stories and videos; and they founded TeleSUR, an increasingly important Spanish language regional news outlet. ALBA Health has set up a school with the Health Ministry in Havana, has performed over one million eye surgeries, has sent 75,000 health workers to visit over two million homes, and is currently managing five camps in Haiti housing over 17,000 earthquake victims. ALBA Culture has held three Olympic style ALBA Games in Havana with participants from over thirty countries, sponsored tourism fairs, literature competitions, and produced movies. And these represent just a handful of the advances of ALBA projects. More importantly, the ALBA country

leaders exert concerted effort to shore up each other during moments of

instability brought on by their vigorous attempts to usher in “21st Century Socialism,” an economic model roughly based upon Marxist ideas. In Bolivia during the conflicts with the regional prefects, Venezuela provided President Evo Mo-rales engineers and financing to build a military base to soothe the passions of a disgruntled military. During Ecuador’s recent police unrest the ALBA centralized regional political backing of President Correa. After the fraudulent 2008 elections in Nicaragua the ALBA provided $50 million upon the United States severing its assistance package. And in Honduras, the ALBA offers ongoing financial, moral, and organizational support to ex-president Mel Zelaya after he was ousted for attempting to hold a referendum of questionable legality.

ALBA—Neolib Impact

ALBA is key to a global socialist revolution Piitso, 2013, (Phatse Justice Piitso, the former Ambassador to the republic of Cuba and the former provincial secretary of the SACP, “Once again the Bolivarian Socialist Revolution and the heroic people of the Republic of Venezuela have triumphed over adversity”, 4/2013, https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/umsebenzi-online/c5l3k67qzvw/DmQ5AYlNA3gJ)//LOH

We take the opportunity to join the progressive movement and the people of the world to congratulate the Bolivarian socialist revolution, the heroic people of the socialist republic of Venezuela and our newly elected President, Cde Nicolas Maduro, for the successful national elections. The results of the elections are a living testimony that the Bolivarian socialist revolution of our America derives its existence from the foundations of our democratic principles. The momentous victory by the revolutionary forces of Bolivar represents the highest form of expression and appreciation of the leadership of their Commander in Chief and the leader of the revolution Cde President Hugo Chavez. The people of Venezuela have reaffirmed the legacy of the leader of their revolution Hugo Chavez against the

wishes and the interests of the US led imperialism . He died for the noble cause of the struggles for the liberation of the working class throughout the world. The Bolivarian socialist revolution has defeated the most highly sponsored political movement by the US imperialism in the world. Therefore the victory of the popular will of the people of Venezuela is the victory against imperialism and colonialism. The people have defeated a US sponsored counter revolution from the heart of their motherland. The successful victory of the Bolivarian socialist revolution has added the necessary impetus to the working class movement across the world to take forward the momentum of our struggles against the imperialist oppression and exploitation. The triumph of our revolutionary forces is indeed a giant leap forward to our struggles for the liberation of our people in the former colonies and semi colonies. It is indeed a triumph of our revolution against adversity. Our beautiful Bolivarian socialist revolution has indeed proven to the world that in the cause of the revolutionary struggles of the working class, great revolutions always bring great men to the forefront and therefore unearth talents beyond the imagination of man. The US led imperialism has never imagined that a humbled revolution can produce out of an ordinary son of the working class, out of a bus driver, an outstanding and the most revolutionary leader of the calibre of President Nicolas Maduro. It is also worrisome that the US is instigating its garrison of counter revolution to reject the outcomes of such a fair and democratic elections. This attempt to reject legitimate democratic process constitute a major

threat to the peace and security of the people of Venezuela and the region. Imperialism and colonialism is much worried by the success of the struggles of our people in the former colonies and semi colonies. The strength and the organisation of the working class is increasingly shaking the foundations of imperialism. The US led imperialism will never come to terms that the working class in Venezuela under the leadership of President Maduro is leading the most powerful revolutionary

socialist movement of the 21th century at its doorsteps. The Latin American region is becoming the pinnacle of the world wide struggles against imperialism and colonial domination. The heroic people of the Latin America are following the giant footprints of their revolutionary leader and the father of their wars of independence Simon Bolivar. He was a great leader who led relentless struggles for the independence of the whole of latin America against Spanish imperialism and colonialism. The are inspired by the most revolutionary and exemplary leadership of the slave people whose struggles led to the declaration of the first independent slave republic of Haiti.It is inspiring to mention that it was the revolution of Haiti under the leadership of President Alexandre Petion, which assisted Simon Bolivar with the military and financial resources that defeated the Spanish colonialism in the region. Immediately after the defeat of the US sponsored puppet government through popular elections in 1998, the newly elected President, Cde Hugo Chavez, declared the socialist character of the Bolivarian socialist republic of Venezuela. The reason why this formidable socialist revolution is named after the visionary leader of the struggles of the people of Latin America, Simon Bolivar. Cde Hugo Chavez was inspired by the heroic struggles of the people of Haiti who declared the first slave independent republic in the history of mankind. He stood to the true traditions that liberated Latin America from Spanish colonialsm. The Bolivarian Alliance for the people of our America is the first formidable block of emerging countries of the former colonies and semi colonies to have declared the socialist character of their revolution after the collapse of the socialism in the Soviet Union and the communist states of the Eastern Europe. It is a regional organization that has achieved tremendous success to integrate the social, political and the economic terrain of the region based on revolutionary socialist principles. The new struggles to advance a socialist revolution in the Latin America has ushered in a new and unprecedented world political situation in the aftermath of the cold war. It is in this this region where the working class struggles have made decisive advances to conquer state power, liquidate imperialism and at the same time continue to consolidate the victories of their Bolivarian socialist revolution of our 21th century. The Bolivarian socialist revolution has become the epicenter of struggles against the US led neoliberal economic policies throughout the world. Most of the regional governments have opted for the socialist model of economic ownership through nationalization of the key sectors of their economy. The Bolivarian Alliance for the people of the America is preparing its people to embrace the reconstruction of a new society based on values of socialist democratic principles. Most of the governments in the region are consolidating a regional economic integration model based on the vision of social welfare, bartering and mutual economic aid. They are encouraging a state

centered trade model driven by the principle of solidarity instead of the

monopolistic US neoliberal framework . The Bolivarian socialist revolution is posing a challenge to the US economic domination in the American hemisphere. The community of over 33 Latin American and Caribbean states has formed a new economic alliance the exclusion of the dominant US empire. The organization of the American states( OAS) is no more a hegemonic power over the complex socio economic relations of the region. The Bolivarian socialist revolution underway in the Latin America is a symbol of hope to the working class movement throughout the world. The prospects and possibilities of a new socialist block after the collapse of the Soviet Union are taking shape in the Latin America. We

appreciate this revolutionary offspring of the Cuban revolution. The Bolivarian revolution is a symbol of hope to all humanity. Phatse Justice Piitso is the former Ambassador to the republic of Cuba and the former provincial secretary of the SACP writing this article on his personal capacity.

Corruption

Uniqueness

Maduro regime takes on corruption and crime, but keeping “Chavista” alive is crucial to legitimacy Global Post, 7/27, (Staff Writer, 7/27/2013, “Maduro tested as Venezuela's economy worsens”, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130727/maduro-tested-venezuelas-economy-worsens#1)//LOHA hundred days after taking office, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has withstood opposition challenges to his election but is now being put to the test by a deepening economic crisis. "Maduro has won the battle of legitimacy with the opposition," said political analyst John Magdaleno, who said the president's political standing is secure both inside and outside the country. The hand-picked successor to the charismatic Hugo Chavez, Maduro boasted of his government's staying power this week at a celebration marking the birthday of Simon Bolivar, the 19th century South American independence hero Chavistas revere. "It's not 100 days. It's 100 years that the revolution will be here: 100 years of the Bolivarian, Chavista, socialist revolution," Maduro declared. The street violence, marches and counter-marches, and bitter exchanges of insults that followed Maduro's slender victory in the polls now appear to be behind him. Though the election results are still disputed by opposition rival Henrique Capriles, tensions have eased in Venezuela. "The intensity of the confrontation, the frequency of the verbal disputes, have gone down," said Magdaleno . But the president still must

show he can keep the Chavista ranks united and assert control over the

decision-making process, he cautioned. Since coming to office, Maduro has met with representatives of the business sector, owners of private media companies, and labor and religious leaders. He has also visited various Latin American countries, and assumed the rotating leadership of Mercosur, a South American trading bloc that Venezuela recently joined as a full member. "Maduro has been gradually steadying himself, using stagecraft and propaganda, but he still must take concrete steps," said Maxim Ross, an economist at the Universidad Monte Avila. Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said that, strikingly, Maduro has dared to involve himself in two issues that Chavez had always managed to avoid: corruption and

crime . "Chavez could avoid the issue because he did not pay a political price for the insecurity: he wasn't seen as responsible for it, and he just didn't talk about the noose in the hanged man's house," Leon wrote in the local press. Over the past weeks, Capriles, the young opposition leader who galvanized the opposition in two election campaigns after years of losses to Chavez, has pursued a "crusade for the truth" both inside and outside the country, with mixed results. He was received by the presidents of Colombia and Chile, to the fury of the Maduro government, but not by those of Mexico and Peru. As he awaits a Supreme Court decision on his three month old challenge to the election results, the Miranda state governor faces an uphill battle in keeping his base motivated. But he did succeed in creating doubt about the honesty of Venezuela's election authorities. "Although the electoral challenge no longer has the same relevance, the doubt did take hold. About half the country did not think the results were correct," Magdaleno said. "He will continue making charges, probably going to international fora, but I don't

think this will have enough of an impact to turn the legitimacy of the Maduro government, which is calculating the exact timing to produce the sentence of the Supreme Court so as to undo the opposition electorate," he said.

Maduro is taking on corruption now—public trust is crucial WOLA, 7/15, (David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, WOLA, Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, “Maduro’s Anti-corruption Campaign, part I”, 7/15/2013, http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55514972170/maduros-anti-corruption-campaign-part-i)//LOH

In recent weeks President Nicolas Maduro has taken on corruption with the announcement of arrests of a number of mid-level government officials. These include multiple officials from both tax collection agency SENIAT and consumer protection agency INDEPABIS, the ex-President of Ferrominera (state mining company), an inspector from the Ministry of Health, and five officials involved in a multi-million dollar scam involving the China Fund. (A list compiled by Hinterlaces of government officials arrested so far can be read here) Addressing corruption is a challenge for any government since it ipso facto highlights its own failures. But this is especially true for a socialist, revolutionary governments whose discourse associates social ills, especially those having to do with greed and dishonesty, with capitalism. Maduro has addressed this by suggesting that “corruption is an anti-socialist and anti-revolutionary act.” In a May 4 declaration, Maduro announced the creation of a “secret agency” that would fight corruption wherever it is found: “To those who are corrupt but dress in red [socialist party’s colors], I say we are coming for you. We will be implacable.” Maduro also quoted Simón Bolívar staying the starting point of the anti-corruption struggle should be a moral one: “One of the greatest dangers is the demoralization of the people. A decrease in public morality soon causes the dissolution of the State. This is why the Fourth Republic [Venezuela’s democracy from 1958-1998] went into dissolution; it morally declined and disintegrated because of corruption.” Other government officials have been making public declarations on the issue as well. Vice-president Jorge Arreaza said they aimed to weed out corruption from “all the ministries, all of our procedures. We need to detect internal corruption, but also corruption of the right [opposition leaders], in their governorships, their mayors, their political parties.” The Fiscal General Luisa Ortega Díaz discussed corruption in an interview, suggesting it is not unique to Venezuela: “the theme of corruption in the world is almost contemporary to the birth of humanity.” The appointment of the new INDEPABIS director Eduardo Samán is seen as part of this anti-corruption campaign. Among government supporters Samán, is regarded as a radical of high ethical standards. He declared on July 7 that “We now see a disposition by the national government to fight this corruption and my appointment has to do with that, with the disposition to fight corruption among public functionaries, but also business corruption.” In our next post we will look at critical reactions to Maduro’s fight against corruption.

Maduro is framing corruption as “mocking” the people Venezuela Analysis, 7/15, (Staff, “Four New Cases of Corruption “Mock” Venezuelan People, Says Maduro” 7/15/2013, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9859)//LOHFour cases of corruption, reported throughout the country in recent days, have caused frustration about the misuse of state money and resources. On Friday in Caracas, the Attorney General arrested 13 members of the group “Angels of the Revolution,” which illegally charged citizens interested in receiving benefits from the government’s missions. Conceived by the late President Hugo Chávez with the goal of redistributing the country’s oil wealth, the missions are entirely free. Operating from Caracas’ Central Park area, the fund allegedly offered to facilitate access to 11 different missions, including pensions for the elderly or an apartment in a newly-constructed housing complex from the Misión Vivienda, or Mission Housing, for a rate of 1,000 to 20,000 bolivars (roughly $150 to $3200 USD at the official exchange rate). “I call on authorities to give the maximum punishment for these bandits who mock our people,” President Nicolas Maduro said. To the east of the capital, in Monagas state, authorities detained the manager of the legal division of Pdvsa, the state-run oil company, for charging a contractor 600,000 bolivars in order to fix a legal setback. The act, reported by representatives of the contractor, occurred one week ago, on July 8. The litigation superintendent of the state’s legal division was also detained on charges of extortion and conspiracy. To the South of Monagas, in the mineral-rich state of Bolívar, former Ferrominera Orinoco (FDO) President Radwan Sabbagh was arrested on several corruption charges, including embezzlement, evasion of tendering procedures, the consultation of public officials with contractors, and conspiracy. FDO is a state-owned company that extracts and processes iron ore. In a press conference on Saturday, the secretary general of the FDO worker’s union, Ruben Gonzalez, who has himself stood trial for corruption six times, claimed that the arrest was only one piece of more illegal activity at the factory that is led by mafias. Meanwhile, during a broadcast from the Street Government in the western state of Apure, Maduro condemned mafias throughout the western llanos region that he alleged were charging farmers for access to agricultural loans. He called upon his Ministers for Agriculture and Land and Internal Relations to investigate the “completely illegal” actions. “ This is treason to the people … to the

revolution,” he said. “I want to receive the reports of this occurring in various states, that various bandits are saying they represent the government. I want to capture them all. If you give me the information, I'll go and find them today. Let's raid and capture these bandits, wherever they are.”

Maduro is taking on corruption now but is under high scrutiny every political action is key to maintain stability WOLA, 7/17, (WOLA, David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, “Maduro’s Anti-corruption Campaign, part II”, 7/17/2013, http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55689710268/maduros-anti-corruption-campaign-part-ii)//LOH

On Monday we looked at the Maduro government’s efforts to fight against corruption. In recent weeks multiple government officials have been arrested.

Opposition critics have pointed to the selective nature of the cases, suggesting that Maduro’s efforts are more about politics than justice. The decidedly mid-level character of the officials who have been targeted thus far has led many to suggest that Maduro won’t touch the big fish. For example Carlos Vecchio of Voluntad Popular points out that while Maduro talks about corruption “he has at his side Diosdado Cabello, who is one of the people that has been denounced the most for serious corruption.” However, even selective pursuit could help Maduro gain

internal control over his coalition . Pollster Luis Vicente León has said that through the fight against corruption: “Maduro can show that he is willing to attack groups within chavismo that are out of control. He is warning that if any chavista revolts, he may be accused of corruption.” Former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has wryly suggested that the corruption campaign is necessarily selective. “If they really go in depth with the corruption issue, they will be left without a government.” Opposition figures have also been the target of the anti-corruption campaign. Most notably, the Primero Justica National Assembly representative Richard Mardo, who was dramatically accused in February in the National Assembly of fraud and money laundering for contributions that were never declared to the National Electoral Council or tax authorities. Mardo has declared that he is being politically persecuted. He says he was blackmailed by the government coalition who said they would not bring these charges if he switched parties and came to their side. The PSUV does not quite have the two thirds majority it wants in the National Assembly and has, in the past year, peeled away several opposition legislators. The National Assembly is in the process of annulling his parliamentary immunity to allow him to be tried. Primero Justicia has said they stand by Mardo. Capriles recently suggested the government is pursuing him in order "cover over its own disaster."

Maduro is fighting corruption now AVN, 7/11, (AVN, Venezuelan Embassy to the United States, “Attorney General:President Maduro Facilitating Institutional Cooperation in Anti-Corruption Efforts”, 7/11/2013, http://venezuela-us.org/2013/07/11/president-maduro-facilitating-institutional-cooperation-in-anti-corruption-efforts/)//LOH

Luisa Ortega Díaz, Venezuela’s Attorney General, spoke on Wednesday about corruption, a crime she considers universal and one which Venezuela is fighting head on. Ortega Días emphasized that President Nicolás Maduro is “aware of what could happen in the country and worried about corruption, and he wants institutions to heed the call and join in the campaign against corruption.” In an interview on Globovisión, the Attorney General noted that “corruption is almost as old as humanity itself.” Ortega Díaz also touched on an ongoing case in which eight people were arrested, accused of embezzling $84 million from the China-Venezuela Fund that is administrated through Venezuela’s Economic and Social Development Bank (Bandes). “Those citizens are currently facing a hearing; attorneys have already gone through the facts of what each of them presumably committed and they have made preliminary conclusions,” she noted. The Attorney General added that they will be able to exercise their right to present their defense, which might clarify the facts of the case. Fight against Impunity Ortega Díaz also stressed that concrete steps are being taken in the fight against impunity, including the Safe

Homeland Operation (an anti-crime security initiative led by the Maduro administration). “This plan is not just about fighting crime, but also about prevention through [emphasizing] values. Moreover, officials are up to the task at hand,” she said.

Maduro is taking on corruption now—keeping Chavismo alive is crucial to his longterm successWall Street Journal, 4/8, (WSJ, Kejal Vyas, Staff, “Ahead of Election, Venezuela's Maduro Pledges to Fight Graft”, 4/8/2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130408-708466.html)//LOH

Venezuela's interim leader Nicolas Maduro said Monday he will launch a new government program aimed at eliminating graft, the latest campaign promise from the heir apparent to late leader Hugo Chavez, ahead of Sunday's presidential elections. Pledging to "confront corruption with my very life," Mr. Maduro said he started the creation of agencies that will investigate corruption allegations. "No one is untouchable here," Mr. Maduro told a crowd in the eastern oil-rich state of Monagas. Mr. Maduro named his new anti-corruption cause the Grand Mission Efficiency or Nothing and said investigative units will inspect, among other areas, basic industry companies, many of which are state-owned and have seen low productivity and frequent labor strife. "I need you all to be my inspectors," Mr. Maduro told a rally of party loyalists. The 50-year-old, who served as Mr. Chavez's foreign minister for more than six years and as vice president for several months before the populist's March 5 death, is looking to address accusations from opposition leader Henrique Capriles who has charged that top government officials have been involved in cronyism and scamming money from the state's coffers. During a large opposition rally in Caracas on Sunday, Mr. Capriles repeatedly referred to the torchbearers of Mr. Chavez's leftist revolution using a Spanish term for those who make their money through no more than their connections. "They're a small group that says they're socialists but look at how they live; the big cars they ride in; count how many bodyguards they have and how many trips they've been on. They're more familiar with the world than Venezuela," Mr. Capriles said to a crowd of thousands who filled a major downtown avenue of the capital. Mr. Maduro holds a comfortable double-digit point lead over his rival in most polls. Both have been running a hectic nationwide tour during the 10-day campaigning period, which draws to a close April 11. Analysts expect the ruling socialist

party to use Mr. Chavez's image and legacy to continue consolidating

power in the near term . But they've also raised concerns over Mr. Maduro's ability to control various divisions within the leftist movement in the long run. Indeed, Mr. Maduro has repeatedly invoked the name of his predecessor and has promised to extend the social programs that made the former army officer wildly popular among the poor for 14 years.

Maduro is appealing to the people with anti-corruption key to increase legitimacy and stability AVN, 8/2, (AVN, “Maduro calls to fight corruption on the streets”, 8/2/2013, http://www.avn.info.ve/node/185543)//LOH

Corruption shall be fought on the streets, urged Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro before informing that he will take part on a march against corruption convened by organized movements and collectives for next August 3rd. "I accompany the call that is being made, especially the youth. Let's fight and struggle on the streets," Maduro said during a cabinet meeting at Miraflores Presidential Palace on Thursday. The President called again to reinforce and support the battle against corruption at all levels. Thus, he condemned the automatic support given by opposition legislators and private media to political leaders involved in illegal actions. For instance, he mentioned Richard Mardo, a legislator whose parliamentary immunity was removed over tax fraud and money laundering accusations. The Supreme Court of Justice said it found enough elements for a trial. In this connection, president Maduro said that media outlets have undertaken a campaign in support that in the end legitimizes corruption. "You, media owners; you, decent politicians in the opposition... You are creating monsters and opposition owners are becoming majority shareholders," he said. That scenario makes clear that there are two models of homeland in Venezuela, Maduro said: the one revolutionaries fight for and the other the Right expects to impose. "There is a model of homeland with right to decency, labor, life, prosperity and homeland; and a model of anti-homeland, morally decomposed everywhere."

Maduro framing anti-corruption as a group effort in attempt to gain legitimacy and support from the people AVN, 8/2, (AVN, “Maduro calls to fight corruption on the streets”, 8/2/2013, http://www.avn.info.ve/node/185543)//LOH

As Interior relations, justice and peace minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres disclosed an assassination plan against him, president Nicolas Maduro said: " I will not be

taken off the streets. I will continue on the street with people and we will have to neutralize (that). I ask people's support to take care of ourselves mutually, but I will not be neutralized with plans, counter-plans. No. we have to be on the streets with people, making revolution." Two attempts to assassinate the Venezuelan president have been disclosed so far, Maduro informed. They were expected to be carried out on July 5th or 24th. President Maduro said the two attempts were neutralized thanks to information gathered by intelligence corps and security measures carried out.

Links

The plan is a contradiction tanks credibility Embassy of the Bolivarian Republic of Cuba, 6/10, (AVN, “President Maduro Announces Anti-Corruption Operation, 6/10/2013, http://venezuela-us.org/2013/06/10/president-maduro-announces-anti-corruption-operation/)//LOH

On his twitter account, @NicolasMaduro, he said that the operation is being carried out to dismantle a group of extortionists found in the agency. He said that corruption is goes against the country’s values and should be confronted by all Venezuelans. “Today at dawn we began an anti-corruption operation in INDEPABIS against a group of extortionists, we’re going to root out corruption,” he wrote on twitter. He called on the Venezuelan people to file complaints in order to make national efforts to combat corruption more efficient. “I thank the people for their complaints, corruption is a sickness of the anti-values of capitalism , let’s all confront it,” the President wrote. Later in the day on Sunday, he wrote, “I invite you to join the fight against corruption and the economic sabotage against the people, let’s work together, all of us.” Maduro also announced that he named former Commerce Minister Eduardo Samán the new head of the consumer protection agency, “to make a revolution within the revolution, to protect the people.”

Maduro is framing corruption as a capitalist means—the plan will be perceived as a contradiction and cause backlashEcuador Times, 6/25, (“Maduro: “The corruption is going to swallow the country””, 6/25/2013, http://www.ecuadortimes.net/2013/06/25/maduro-the-corruption-is-going-to-swallow-the-country/)//LOH

The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, said that corruption “is going to swallow the country” if it is not faced with a “power struggle” and noted that no socialist or “revolutionary” can be corrupt. Today in a mandatory speech broadcast on network television and radio as a part of the celebration of the 192 years of the Battle of independence of Venezuela and in memory of

the late president, Hugo Chavez, the head of state asked the people to fight corruption wherever they are, “in friendly fields” or in the “fascist right wing” where he said there is “a

bunch of scoundrels ” who want to sell the country’s wealth. “Every corrupt is

anti-Chavez, anti-socialist, is a capitalist even if they wear a red beret,” said Maduro.

Whoever wants to pay tribute to Chavez, who –he ensured- “died poor, left no inheritance, he left nothing when he left this life, must fight for a country of honest citizens,” he said. For the Venezuelan opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, “having a homeland” is to have the right conditions to live. “Having homeland is that our children can go to a school that is not falling to pieces, is that we don’t get robbed and killed, having a homeland is to have a salary that lasts, or to have clean water,” said the opposition leader during the third edition of his weekly show Venezuela Somos Todos, which is transmitted through the Internet portal Capriles.tv.

Venezuela is in transition now Maduro needs legitimacy in his anti-corruption campaign to quell the divide in the populous and avert social unrest from escalating LTS of Venezuela, 6/28, (“The stage of post-chavismo begun under Maduro’s government and the challenges of the working class”, 6/28/2013, http://www.ft-ci.org/The-stage-of-post-chavismo-begun-under-Maduro-s-government-and-the-challenges?lang=en)//LOH

The post-chavista transition on a traumatic course, under conflicts and tensions 8. As we are already observing, the transition to a post-chavista stage is becoming traumatic. As we have maintained, with Chávez’ physical disappearance, that equilibrium of the forces on which he settled, has come to an end, and, since it was based on personal Bonapartism, it had a basis of permanent instability, and it would turn into a source of chaos, if he disappeared physically, and this is the case. As we have seen with the April 14 elections, the situation has been marked by political tensions. Now Maduro will have to contend, not only with an emboldened opposition, that is seeking to render him powerless, permanently, but also with the quarrels within chavismo itself, and a developing dynamic of struggles by the working class. It seems like a weak government. Maduro does not have Chávez’ leadership and authority, neither within the government and its factions, nor with the masses of workers and the poor. The advantage that the regime has, is established on the bourgeois legacy of Chávez, who restored the authority of the state in front of the toiling and impoverished masses, by repairing the institutions of the bourgeois order, discredited and crisis-ridden after the Caracazo, especially the components of the armed forces, the parliament and the main institution of bourgeois democracy, the vote. As we know, chavismo came to power in order to repair the power of a capitalist state that had lost all legitimacy after the crisis of the Punto Fijo regime, but also for a definite bourgeois national project, that would make concessions to the movement of the masses, by maintaining disagreements with imperialism, factors that would legitimize it for the repairing of the institutions mentioned in total crisis. But also, because of the high politicization of the armed forces, although, on one hand, given their re-legitimization, they could act as a “guarantor” of the process of post-chavismo transition; on the other hand, they could be a destabilizing element, if, in the face of a sudden political crisis among the biggest forces in struggle, they want to enter as mediating forces, and want to represent a more open solution of any crisis that will be unleashed. 9. The situation that is being experienced, is strained by political traumas, difficult to ward off, amid the framework of internal forces with their own struggles and interests, inside the political factions of the governing party, known for its clear political differentiations, but also of the rest of the bourgeois factions and even of imperialism itself. It is being confirmed that the role of arbiter, played by Chávez, cannot be carried out by Maduro, nor by the alleged political clique that would be behind him; the instability that began after Chávez’ physical disappearance is also being confirmed. As we have seen up to now, the traumatic direction of the political situation of the country has been taking a winding course with undefined contours. This now means a state of crisis in the way of governing the country, in which, no matter how much normality the authorities of Maduro’s government want to show, it is clear that everything is creaking in the real state of things. The anti-corruption movement that is being organized by the government is an attempt

of Maduro to try to supply his government with oxygen, in the face of the crisis it is going through, but it would also be part of a first attempt by him, his faction and allies, to develop themselves, their own force, within chavismo, and make their own achievements in front of the masses, since some prominent people, closely connected to factions of power, have fallen, as is the case with the former President of the Ferrominera del Orinoco firm, linked to the Governor of Bolívar State, Rangel Gómez, or in Seniat itself, where there is speculation that it is an an area of influence of Diosdado Cabello. So we have the fact that, overall, a traumatic, transitory period is being gone through, where the clear expression of the conflicts and tensions that is making new forms of political control emerge, will not be exempt from dangers that could open up political situations difficult for the current factions that are fighting for political control of the country, to rid themselves of, and through which the inrush of the workers’ movement could occur.

Maduro’s campaign must not be perceived as a witch hunt to be effective WOLA, 7/18, (David Smilde, a WOLA Senior Fellow and Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Georgia, lived in or worked on Venezuela since 1992, co-editor of Venezuela's Bolivarian Democracy: Participation, Politics and Culture under Chávez, and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, Associate Professor of Sociology at the Universidad Central de Venezuela, Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, hosted by the Washington Office on Latin America, “Maduro’s Anti-corruption Campaign, part III”, 7/18/2013, http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55777130135/maduros-anti-corruption-campaign-part-iii)//LOH

The Maduro government has good reason to direct its attention towards corruption. While it is endemic in countries dominated by extractive industries, and while the Chávez

government was long criticized as corrupt, the issue has increased in importance in recent years as the social and economic progress of the 2004-2008 period seems to have stagnated. Even among government supporters there is a sinking feeling that things should be better than they are and that corruption is to blame . Venezuelan polling firm Datanalisis just

released data from June showing perceptions of the government’s work against corruption are worse (-57%) than any other issue except for crime (-66%). Furthermore, a model Datanalisis uses to hierarchize issues according to

how much they help or hurt Maduro’s job approval shows that perception of corruption is the most potent negative issue. On July 9 Transparency International (TI) released the results of its 2013 Global

Barometer which surveys the perceptions of average people. According to the survey 57% of Venezuelan respondents think that corruption has “increased a lot” in the past two years and 83% said corruption is a serious problem in the public sector. 57% of respondents said that the government’s efforts in fighting corruption were ineffective. Venezuela ranks 165 of 176 countries in the TI’s corruption perception index which surveys expert’s perception of corruption. Transparencia Venezuela, the local chapter of TI, has welcomed the government’s renewed focus on corruption but has questioned the effectiveness of its strategy. In June they put out a press release that urged the government “to translate this push [against corruption] into public policies supported with adequate resources, technology and knowledge.” They particularly criticized the fact that this initiative was being carried out by a new, secret organ within the Executive Branch, rather than by strengthening

existing institutions. The country is seeing how acts of corruption have been taking place under their noses. We are happy that the president has realized this but the fight against corruption is much more complicated than this. The investigations cannot be put in military hands, nor carried out

by secret presidential organisms. The organization that is in charge of these investigations

should do so under the principles of transparency, autonomy, and security that the fight against powerful and dangerous enemies requires. They put forth six recommendations to put the country in line with international best practices. Return corruption investigations to civil justice rather

than military intelligence. Guarantee resources and security to the investigators, police and judges in charge of corruption cases. Investigate the corruption networks within which these seven individuals [that have been arrested] were immersed, including their superiors, and take actions to address institutional weaknesses that permitted these acts. Investigation and prosecution should be carried out by the Judicial Branch

not the Executive Branch Due process for those who are implicated to make sure this does not

turn into a witch hunt. Release the declarations of patrimony that all Venezuelan public employees

have to file. More broadly, the press release pointed attention to TV’s 99 point anti-corruption plan for 2013-19 released at the end of 2012. The lack of public information on the corruption cases the government has recently taken on, the fact that the government has not taken on bigger cases, and the improvised nature of the initiative leads TV director Mercedes de Freites to be skeptical of the government’s efforts. “We still have not seen any important decision that would make us believe that the government has decided to truly fight against corruption.”

Anti-corruption should not be seen as a one-sided witch hunt Venezuela Analysis, 7/28, (Staff, “Tackling Institutions One By One: An Interview With Gregory Wilpert”, 7/28/2013, http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/9884)//LOH

Let’s agree that another major obstacle to support being much higher - say 80% - is capitalists and other elite elements blocking and sabotaging efforts at innovation and change, on the one hand, and corporate media then blaming the shortcomings and everything else they can dream up on Chavez and the revolution, on the other hand. In that case, wouldn’t a massive campaign about the acts of obstruction and sabotage and even preventing them via very severe penalties have strong benefits? And wouldn't a massive campaign about what is freedom of speech and good media, including preventing capitalists from dominating and misusing media, again, far more forcefully than up to now, also have many benefits? If so, the question becomes, would the benefits of such campaigns be outweighed by their producing more virulent opposition from elites inside Venezuela, pretext for intervention from outside Venezuela, and also the possibility of over centralisation domestically. Or would the benefits, and the ensuing clarity of public opinion and advances of policies, and thus the growing domestic support, outweigh those costs? I wonder your thoughts on this. What do you personally think is the right mix of moving forward and, as you indicated earlier, understandably and wisely trying to avoid confrontation? OK, here you ask what the government could do to address the problems that I did not address, because I said these problems tend to distract from the

internal problems that the government could do more about. Your proposal about how the government could act in response to external threats and sabotage make sense and the government is doing an enormous amount already in this sense. That is, it has a constant campaign going on to denounce such acts and often tries to penalize sabotage, such as hoarding of foods or violations of price controls. On the media front, though, I think the reason this campaign does not work as well as the government hopes is that people are naturally just as suspicious of pro-government propaganda as they are of opposition propaganda in the private mass media. Actually, they are probably more suspicious of pro-government media because it is much more obvious to them that there is a link between the government and the

governmental media outlets. However, in the opposition sector, even though everyone more or less knows that the private media is mostly opposition-oriented, there is more of a pretense of independence of the private media from the opposition. Personally, as I mentioned earlier, I think the government has missed an opportunity in its approach to the mass media. Rather than fostering more and more state media outlets (TV, radio, and newspapers funded by the government have proliferated), the government should have created truly democratic and independent mass media. Such media would certainly not be anti-government or pro-opposition, but it would try to report in the interests of the

country's working class majority. Maybe one could even create a variety of media outlets that report from the perspective of a variety of social classes or groups? In any case, nothing along these lines has really been tried. The closest to this model are the community media, but they remain very small and marginal, despite their proliferation in the Chávez years. Just this past week, however, the new communications minister, Ernesto Villegas, who is very good, announced a new system of public media, where the community media would play a much larger role in the major media outlets. Depending on how this is implemented, this could mean a significant democratization of the state or public media. We'll have to see. With regard to cracking down harder on

opposition sabotage and obstruction, this is certainly something that the government ought to do, but I think

it does that to a large extent already. Here the real problem is that if it does it, first of all, it cannot be perceived as a one-sided opposition witch-hunt, which means, it ought to hit just as hard against corruption within its own ranks. This, however, does not seem to be happening.

Corruption Impact—Growth

Corruption makes growth impossible, political will is needed to address corruptionAMI, 12, (AMI, Guillaume Corpart is the Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence and a veteran of Latin American competitive intelligence and strategy consulting, “The Cost of Corruption to Latin America’s Competitiveness”, 5/10/2012, http://americasmi.com/en_US/expertise/articles-trends/page/the-cost-of-corruption-to-latin-americas-competitiveness)//LOH

The World Bank identifies corruption as the single greatest obstacle to economic and social development. And, indeed, the prevalence of corruption is strongly correlated with a country’s overall competitiveness. The World Economic Forum estimates that bribe payments amount to over $1 trillion annually, with Latin American countries being among the most corrupt.1 Meanwhile, the region is struggling in regard to its global competitiveness: Mexico and Brazil, the region’s two biggest economies, both saw their competitiveness stagnate from 2009 to 2011, while China became more competitive during the same period.2 Countries

that have tackled corruption have reaped enormous benefits: by some

estimates, reducing corruption can increase per capita income by up to

400 percent .3 That said, addressing the scourge of corruption entails fundamental changes to how the public sector operates—and to ingrained attitudes and mentalities. This requires dedicated commitment and much political will. But with corruption so instilled in the Latin American culture, who is up for the challenge.

Most solve corruption for case to solve AMI, 12, (AMI, Guillaume Corpart is the Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence and a veteran of Latin American competitive intelligence and strategy consulting, “The Cost of Corruption to Latin America’s Competitiveness”, 5/10/2012, http://americasmi.com/en_US/expertise/articles-trends/page/the-cost-of-corruption-to-latin-americas-competitiveness)//LOH

The effects of corruption run deep. Countries with high levels of corruption experience lower acceptance of established institutions, deficient court systems, political instability, and heightened income inequality. Corruption also lowers the quality of public infrastructure and expenditures on education and health. Furthermore, there is a direct correlation between corruption, the growth of the informal economy, and the spread of illicit activity in the form of organized crime and illegal cartels, among others. Sadly, all of these attributes are all too often characteristic of many Latin American countries and they all contribute to eroding competitiveness in the global economy. Empirical data demonstrates this direct correlation between corruption and competitiveness (see Exhibit 3). The reduction of a country’s corruption level increases its overall economic performance, most notably with an increase in foreign direct investment. Estimates show that a 1-point improvement in a country’s CPI ranking has an economic impact equivalent

to a 7.5% general tax increase. Similarly, a 1-point deterioration reduces GDP growth by an estimated 0.13% and GDP per capita by US$ 425.6 As a result, many countries in the region are not in a position to reap the full benefits of modern, well-run economies, whose value-added increasingly comes from private sector innovation. As long as private sector companies bears a heavy cost due to corruption, their incentives to invest in research and development or high-risk innovative ventures will remain limited. According to the World Economic Forum, economies can be categorized into three stages: factor driven, efficiency driven, and innovation driven. Generally speaking, developing economies are still in the first phase, fast-developing, emerging economies are categorized in the second, and developed economies are in the third. Latin America and China both currently considered Transition 2-3 economies (meaning they are focused on boosting higher education and training; reaping efficiencies in product markets, the labor market, and the financial sector; and improving their technological readiness—all with the goal of acceding to the third stage, where the focus shifts to increasing business sophistication and innovation). However , it is difficult to conceive of a country

that can adequately transition to an innovation-based economy when it is

saddled with high levels of corruption. Worse, when corruption is endemic, it’s not just a country’s potential that is at stake, but its actual economic growth: the high levels of corruption seen in most of the region’s economies are inhibiting future growth.

Corruption Impact—Instability

Corruption is directly correlated wit political instability Tuason, 04, (PhD Thesis, School of Political Science and International Studies, The University of Queensland, “Corruption - a threat to political stability? : The Philippines, a case study”, 2004, http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:106894)//LOH

The thesis analyses the association between corruption and political stability using the Philippines as a case study during the time of the Marcos regime. Research on corruption has shown that die direct consequences of corruption are felt on

the economy, society and polity . There is both theoretical and empirical evidence to suggest that corruption causes economic development and growth to falter by promoting a climate which is not conducive to investment both foreign and domestic, by increasing bureaucratic requirements and by decreasing market competitiveness. The literature also maintains that indirectly and mainly through economic stagnation corruption results in social ills, such as, poverty, illiteracy and an increase in income inequality gaps. Politically, corruption analysts have only tentatively discussed links between corruption and political instability and done so by primarily using intervening variables such as loss of governmental

legitimacy . Hence, there appears to be a gap in the literature regarding theoretical discussion and empirical evidence concerning the effects of corruption on the polity and particularly concerning political stability in terms of regime stability. The thesis explores these two facets of an under-theorised area and the lack of evidence regarding interaction between corruption and political stability and posits that corruption directly caused political instability in the Philippines under the Marcos regime. Political instability in the thesis is defined in terms of a dramaturgical event constituting an extra-constitutional executive ouster. Using both primary and secondary sources and a comparative historical narrative approach the researcher explores three different corruption types existing under Marcos, crony capitalism, military favouritism and electoral manipulation and demonstrates how these types of corruption caused regime instability. Both primary sources such as reports, surveys and interviews and secondary sources were used to support the argument and eliminate rival hypotheses. Primary sources comprised interviews, a questionnaire survey, two Work Shops and an examination of documents, and official records. Secondary sources analysed were in the form of books, journal and magazine articles and newspaper reports. Case study methodology was chosen as die route to highlight the contextual complexities of corruption and political stability in the era under examination. Corruption in the Philippines under Marcos maintained a unique role interrelated to structures and institutions embedded in the system of governments. The researcher believes that corruption is enmeshed in a country's political economy, its structures and institutions and that in order to fully understand the complexities and subtleties of corruption it must be seen within its own milieu and how it is entrenched within state systems. The route chosen to prove causal relationship in the thesis was through the elimination of rival hypotheses or proof of non-spuriousness. Three theories of causes of political instability economic

stagnation, military repression and lack of electoral freedom were refuted using empirical evidence. Although corruption was not the only remaining variable which could have produced political instability, it was shown in the thesis to be a substantial causal variable. The thesis demonstrates how counterelites disenfranchised, marginalised and unable to participate in spoils due to cronyism, military favouritism and electoral fraud fought back as vehicles of regime change in a so-called People Power Movement to oust the corrupt dictator. The thesis finds that the relationship between processes of political instability as in regime change and corruption are mutually reinforcing and that in the case of the Philippines, due to excessive presidential corruption in an authoritarian environment, economic, military and political counterelites united in opposition, mobilized and overthrew a corrupt regime, its leader and supporters.

Corruption Impact—Poverty

Corruption causes poverty Transparency International, 4/27, (Transparency International, “POVERTY AND DEVELOPMENT”, 4/27/2012, http://www.transparency.org/topic/detail/poverty_and_development)//LOH

Year after year, it’s the same. Our Global Corruption Barometer confirms that corruption hits poor people hardest – with devastating consequences. A bribe demanded by a police

officer may mean that a family can’t afford school fees or even food to eat. Findings from Mexico, for instance, show that the typical poor family must spend one-third of their income on bribes. Corruption also means that the services people depend on – from drinking water to health clinics – suffer. They are often are of a low quality or not sufficient to meet society’s

most basic needs. Corruption siphons off monies needed to improve them while also distorting policy decisions, such as where roads and schools are built. The 2015 deadline for the Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty is approaching. But targets might not be met. If not, corruption in governments, business and regulators will have been a leading cause. The solution?

Corruption causes poverty undermines economic growthThe Frontier Post, 2012, (Staff, “How corruption causes poverty”, October 2012, http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/182703/)//LOH

Corruption is an effort to secure wealth or power through illegal means for personal gain at public expense; or a misuse of public power for private or personal benefit. Corruption as a phenomenon is a global problem and exists in varying degrees in different countries. Corruption is not only found in democratic and dictatorial politics, but also in feudal, capitalist and socialist economies. Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist cultures are equally bedeviled by corruption†� Corruption defined as an over use of power for the purpose to achieve their private goals and objectives. It is just like a horrible wave which has destroyed all working of departments and unfortunately it is also endemic in Pakistan, both public as well as private sector under the influence of this factor. Unluckily Pakistan stands top of the corrupt countries. This magnitude effects not only public and private sector but this phenomenon also maximize in judiciary, legislature and even in commercial sectors. Corruption is an old age phenomenon. This phenomenon increased in our society with the passage of time. Corruption means destruction and exploiting the society or nation. It breaks all the values, integrity and principles of society. Mostly persons, those have power exercise corruption and exploit the resources of others on the basis of their power and achieve their private goals. In Pakistan, the effect of corruption is very worse. Mostly all developmental sectors have been destroyed due to corruption. Because corruption hinders the development of economic sector and as a result country’s economy is going down day by day. Consequently poverty has increased in the country. Corruption takes roots in any society because of low wages, inequality of wealth and salaries. Inflation is also the economic cause of corruption. Both poor and rich are involved in the corruption. Rich because they have a power to exploit the resources of others and gaining more and more wealth. On the other hand poor is always exploited because of their low wages, social injustice and inflation. These factors compel poor to involve them in corruption. Theobald argues that poverty is

the main cause of corruption. Public as well as private officials, because they have a low wages and unable to enjoy basic necessities of life, compel people to involve in corruption. Bad policies of government and lack of codified laws are also responsible for corruption. Corruption has increased in Pakistan due to different reasons including financial and political corruption. UNDP stated that two major crises in the world that isthe pillar of corruption i-e world war II and division of property after the partition of Indian subcontinent. UNDP shares the phenomenon that both corruption and bad governance shrunk the growth of economy as well as the working of private developmental sectors as a result poverty increases (UNDP 1997). Good governance and accountability plays an effective role to reduce the rate of corruption. Good governance is very important for creating a

peaceful environment, security, rules of law in which the human

development can be promoted . Werlin says the fact that bad policies of government and limited financial resources are responsible for increasing the wave of corruption in society (Werlin 2002).

Impact—Drug Trafficking

Solving corruption solves drug trafficking which threatens the stability of the entire region Southern Pulse, 7/17, (Staff, “Venezuela's Drug Trafficking Problem”, 7/17/2013, http://www.southernpulse.com/_blog/Clippings/post/venezuelas-drug-trafficking-problem/)//LOH

Early this year, President Nicolas Maduro stated “we have to say to the mafias: whoever is not from here must leave, and those who are from here must surrender before the law catches up with you.” Despite its history with drug trafficking, Venezuela has recently become a major transportation hub for drugs. For its own

political survival, Venezuela must increase its fight against drug

trafficking by tackling corruption . But given the country’s economic and political situation, can something be done about drug trafficking? According to government figures, 45 tons of drugs were confiscated last year, 3 times higher than the amount confiscated in 2011. Venezuela blames this trafficking increase on its geography and the Colombian conflict. Venezuela became a focal point for drug operations in 2005, when former President Hugo Chavez stopped cooperating with the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). While those factors do play a role, a more important issue is that of corruption within the government. The US Treasury has accused top Venezuelan leaders in both the army and civil government, such as former defense minister General Henry Rangel Silva, of aiding Colombian guerrillas’ drug trafficking. The UN estimates that in 2011, more than half of the cocaine seized en route to Europe originated from Venezuela, while US officials estimate that 90 percent of planes carrying cocaine to Central America originate from Venezuela. Corruption is so rampant that there are reports of the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel transporting drugs from Caracas’ Maiquetia Airport, Venezuela’s largest airport starting in 2005, with complete impunity. Governmental ties with drug trafficking today in Venezuela resemble that of Mexico’s PRI with the drug cartels back in the mid and late 1970s, in which PRI officials received bribes, and in return the cartels kept violence low. This practice faded away as Mexico democratized. Without strong pressure from their citizens, Venezuelan officials can, and do, benefit from drug trafficking schemes by levying their political influence. In another way, Venezuela has the same problem as Colombia: without a state presence in its border provinces, drug traffickers (especially the FARC) can easily move about without much trouble. Following his election, President Nicolas Maduro sent the military into the streets to fight both crime and drug trafficking as part of “Plan Patria Segura.” Maduro reiterated his government’s intolerance for corruption, and announced the creation of an anti-corruption body that will report directly to him. Courts prosecuted and convicted a former contractor in Zulia on 10 July and several public officials have been arrested on charges of misconduct since Maduro’s election. Maduro’s administration would benefit from increased cooperation with regional partners such as Colombia and Brazil , even if they follow the Cuban example of having minimal cooperation with US officials. But disrupting the drug trade is not a long-term solution unless it tackles the underlying problem of official corruption. While some of his recent steps are

promising, Maduro must go after high ranking officials and engage citizens. Given Venezuela’s economic and political landscape, Maduro is unlikely to exert much effort on the problem of drug trafficking. Furthermore, with high-ranking officials involved in the scheme, it is highly questionable whether Maduro will move against the members of his own party. But it is precisely this corruption that is

harming Maduro’s government; if left unchecked, it puts Venezuela at risk

of political and economic instability and harms the entire region’s

security.

Instability

Coup = Instability

Plots to assassinate Maduro spark unrestVenezuela Analysis, 7/25, (Staff, ““Overwhelming” Evidence of Plot to Assassinate Venezuela's Maduro UPDATED”, 7/25/2013, https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9880)//LOH

Head of Venezuela's National Assembly Diosdado Cabello has stated that he will make public “hard evidence of assassination attempts” targeting himself and President Nicolas Maduro “in due course”. “We know who they are, what they are, what they want, and we will find them,” Cabello told legislators during a special session of the assembly in Zulia state on

Wednesday. The alleged plot was first revealed by Maduro during a street government in Monagas state the day before, when he said that “fascist” groups operating in Venezuela “have crazy plans”. “I have appointed Diosdado Cabello as political head of the PSUV to find the truth of how they have prepared for attacks against me for months,” Maduro said. Maduro stated that if he or Cabello were targeted for assassination, “the wrath of god and the people would be unstoppable” adding that the

political opposition would be crippled. “I'm not here to be afraid of anything or anyone,” he said. However, yesterday opposition leader Henrique Capriles stated on his internet show at Capriles.tv that

“the worst thing that can happen to Venezuela is a coup”. “Here the majority of Venezuelans want a peaceful and democratic change,” he stated, before accusing the government of “fascism”. He also accused Venezuelan authorities of “retaliating” against the Chilean airline LAN. During his recent visit to Chile and Peru, Capriles reportedly flew with the airline. The Maduro government has been critical of Capriles' regular international trips. Foreign minister Elias Jaua recently accused Capriles of neglecting his governorship of Miranda state. Nonetheless, today during a press conference Capriles indicated that he will spend more time abroad denouncing “the reality of the country”. He hinted that his next destinations could include Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador. During the conference, Capriles reiterated claims that the government committed electoral fraud in April, before urging supporters to vote in December's municipal elections. This week, Capriles has also stated that the MUD will “continue to organise society in neighbourhoods, towns and cities, to consolidate an overwhelming majority in the December elections”. On the other hand, the head of Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) Leopoldo Lopez stated that “we are not going to wait six years to be given change”. “There cannot be peace... when there is injustice,” Lopez stated, before urging supporters to restart street protests against the government. VP is part of the MUD coalition. Supporters of the opposition held protests across the country following the 14 April elections, after Capriles disputed the results. In some parts of the country, authorities reported that opposition protests turned violent. In the days that followed the election, Venezuelanalysis observed some opposition protesters and pro-government counter-protesters clash in the streets of Merida. In April, Venezuela's attorney general Luisa Ortega Díaz, stated that the violence claimed nine lives

and dozens of injuries nationwide. Since then, the Maduro administration has accused Capriles of inciting the violence. “We cannot turn the page of 14A [the 14 April presidential elections] when we said that the elections were stolen. This government does not enjoy majority support of Venezuelans,” Lopez insisted this week. The latest poll from private firm Hinterlaces indicates that support for the opposition has fallen to 31%, while the PSUV now has the backing of 48% of the population. The results of another poll by International Consulting Services (ICS) earlier this month indicated that 55.9% of Venezuelans approve of Maduro's presidency.

Cabello responded to Lopez's statements on Wednesday, urging the opposition

to not provoke violence. UPDATE: In a statement aired by state broadcaster VTV on Thursday,

Cabello alleged that some members of the opposition were collaborating with right-wing Venezuelans living in the US . “We want peace for this country. The

only guarantee of peace we have now is the Chavista Revolution ,” he stated.

Political groups vie for legitimacy in Venezuela causing political unrest throughout Latin America, stabilizing Venezuela is key to the region Venezuela Analysis,7 /22, (SASCHA BERCOVITCH, editor at the Harvard Crimson and majors in Latin American History from Harvard University, currently lives at the PROUT Institute in Caracas, where he is conducting research on the historical narrative advanced by Hugo Chávez and its relation to chavista state formation, “Venezuelan Opposition Leader Capriles Maintains Campaign to not Recognize Election Results”, 7/22/2013, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9873)//LOH

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles returned to Venezuela yesterday after tours to Chile and Peru, where he attempted to increase support for his claim that there was fraud in the April 14 presidential elections. Though virtually all countries in the western hemisphere, aside from the United States , have recognized the election results, Capriles said he hoped the visits would allow the “international community [to know] the truth about what’s happening in Venezuela." The opposition boycotted a full audit carried out in May by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) after complaining that it would not include the voting record books, which contain manually-entered fingerprints and signatures. In Chile, Capriles met with senators from several political parties, including the Christian Democratic Party and Socialist Party; former Presidents Eduardo Frei and Patricio Aylwin, the first democratically elected president following the country’s 17-year dictatorship under General Augusto Pinochet; and current conservative President Sebastian Piñera. As opposed to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, who received Capriles in Colombia’s presidential palace, Piñera had dinner with Capriles at the residence of Senator Jovino Novoa, technically making the meeting unofficial in nature. A founder of the rightwing party Independent Democratic Union (UDI), Novoa served as subsecretary general during Pinochet’s dictatorship. “We're going to get together to talk honestly and openly about Chile, Venezuela, Latin America, and the world,” Piñera said before the dinner. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, a Socialist Party member considered the favorite to win the country’s November presidential elections, declined to meet with Capriles after citing difficulties in her schedule. However, she did meet on Friday with Leopoldo Lopez, director of the Venezuelan opposition party Voluntad Popular, in a forum of Socialist International. After leaving Chile on Friday, Capriles continued to Lima, Peru, where he spoke with various civilian groups and politicians, among them former Peruvian president Alan Garcia. Garcia, whose heterodox economic reforms led to severe hyperinflation while he served as president in the late 1980s, was elected for a second term from 2005-2011. In a press conference following his meeting with Capriles, he declared the opposition leader “the elected president of Venezuela.” “Democracy is a long process of patience, but you will triumph because the current government that has

the instruments of power of Venezuela in its hands will condemn itself to economic isolation using a model of government and economy that belongs to the nineteenth century, with extreme state-ism and absurd and exaggerated assistentialism,” he said to Capriles. Current Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, elected following Garcia as the candidate of the leftwing alliance Peru Wins, traveled to Puno state for a meeting on Saturday and did not meet with Capriles. Humala serves as the current President of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), which accepted the April 14 election results and the subsequent audit carried out by Venezuela’s CNE. In a press conference on Saturday from Lima, Capriles lamented that he would not be able to speak with Humala. “I don't intend to decide the agenda of President Humala, but we hope for a response [to Capriles’ request for a meeting], not as President of Peru, but as the brother countries that we are. We are in solidarity with your struggles, and only ask that you be in solidarity with ours,” he said. He added, “We don't claim that the Peruvians, nor the Chileans, nor the Brazilians, nor the Colombians, will resolve our problems. Venezuelans are going to resolve Venezuela's problems. But Venezuela is a case study and it's important that these countries see what is happening in our nation.” In both countries, Capriles’ visits were marked by protests from several dozens of citizens, who displayed signs calling him a “ fascist ,” “ coup-mongerer ,” and

“ terrorist.” Speaking on a radio show, Chilean Communist Party director Juan Andres Lagos drew comparisons between Capriles’ international visits and the US-supported destabilization of Chilean President Salvador Allende, a democratically elected socialist overthrown by Pinochet in 1973. “From the social movements and political forces opposed to the rightwing government [of Piñera], there is a strong rejection and criticism of the visit, as it is considered that this man [Capriles] won't recognize the legitimacy of the results of a government democratically elected by a people, that of Nicolas Maduro. Capriles is installing a very complex situation that is stimulated by the United States, and what it looks for is undemocratic destabilization,” Lagos said. In Venezuela, Government Protests Capriles’ Absence As Capriles’ tour continued, government officials criticized his absence from Miranda state, where he serves as governor. From an agricultural event of the Francisco de Miranda Development Corporation of the Tuy River Basin, Foreign Minister and Corporation President Elias Jaua, who lost to Capriles in Miranda’s gubernatorial race last December, expressed frustration at the governor’s “political impunity.” “There is a people here. Three million Mirandeans deserve the respect of the man who claims to be their governor, and the respect is shown by working on the street, not conspiring in Chile with a far right who has been the most murderous in the continent against their own country,” he said. The comments come at the helm of a Hinterlaces poll released earlier today which showed a drop from 50% to 31% of those with a favorable opinion toward the opposition, and a climb from 39% to 56% of those with an unfavorable opinion. 48% of respondents expressed a favorable opinion toward the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). A July 8 poll released by the same firm predicted that if the country’s Dec. 8 municipal elections were held that day, the victory would go to the opposition.

Counternarcotics

Instability increases drug trafficking and prevents effective US engagementDuddy, 12 – (Patrick D., visiting Senior Lecturer at the Council of Foreign Relations, Duke University, “Political Unrest in Venezuela,” CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16, September 2012, http://www.cfr.org/venezuela/political-unrest-venezuela/p28936)//HO

Counternarcotics: Venezuela does not cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics, except at the most minimal level. Drug trafficking has, consequently, surged.

A number of Venezuelan military officers, including the current minister of defense, have been plausibly accused by the U.S. Treasury of cooperating with the Colombian insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and facilitating drug shipments through Venezuela, especially from Apure State. Venezuelan recalcitrance in counternarcotics clearly undermines other regional efforts to combat the drug trade. Even low levels of violence would create new opportunities for the FARC and other drug traffickers to retrench and extend their reach.

Laundry list

Venezuelan instability collapses their democracy, kills US-Latin America relations, increases narco-trafficking, and hurts the US economyDuddy, 12 – (Patrick D., visiting Senior Lecturer at the Council of Foreign Relations, Duke University, “Political Unrest in Venezuela,” CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16, September 2012, http://www.cfr.org/venezuela/political-unrest-venezuela/p28936)//HO

Political instability and violence in Venezuela would damage U.S. efforts to promote democracy, increase regional cooperation, combat narcotics, and protect its economic interests in the region.¶ Democracy Promotion: The United States has worked for decades to promote democracy in the Western Hemisphere. In recent years, Chavez has become increasingly authoritarian, undermining important political institutions, giving more powers

to the presidency, and weakening both civil society and the independent media. The United States should view a suspension or further deterioration in the quality of Venezuela's democracy as a setback for U.S. policy and for the hemisphere. The emergence of a military junta or a compromised Chavez regime would also likely increase Iranian and Cuban influence in Venezuela. It already has a close relationship with Iran from

which it reportedly receives advanced weapon systems and other assistance. Cuba sends thousands of teachers and technical, medical, and security advisers in exchange for an estimated ninety to one hundred thousand barrels of oil per day.¶ Regional Cooperation:

The United States has an interest in nurturing regional cooperation particularly under the auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS), of which it is a core member. While often disappointing to both the United States and Latin America, the OAS provides the only regional forum in which all

of the countries with democratically elected governments participate. A failure by the OAS to play an effective role in Venezuela if it appears democracy is at risk would further undermine support for the organization both in the region and in the United States. How the United States manages its relations with Venezuela if violence does break out would likely affect U.S. relations with others in the hemisphere, especially Brazil, which has cordial relations with Chavez and reacts badly to perceived U.S. efforts to dictate to Latin America. A repetition of the acrimony that characterized the hemisphere's efforts to

resolve the Honduras crisis of 2009 would be corrosive to U.S. relations with the region.¶

Counternarcotics: Venezuela does not cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics, except at the most minimal level. Drug trafficking has, consequently, surged.

A number of Venezuelan military officers, including the current minister of defense, have been plausibly accused by the U.S. Treasury of cooperating with the Colombian insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and facilitating drug shipments through Venezuela, especially from Apure State. Venezuelan recalcitrance in counternarcotics clearly undermines other regional efforts to combat the drug trade. Even low levels of violence would create new opportunities for the FARC and other drug traffickers to retrench and extend their reach.¶ Economic Interests: A significant number of U.S. companies have operations in Venezuela; it remains an

important market for U.S. goods and some services, especially oil services. Many of these companies could be at risk if violent internal conflict broke out. Venezuela is consistently among the five largest foreign suppliers of oil to the United States. The United States is Venezuela's largest market, buying up to nine hundred thousand barrels of oil daily, up to 45 percent of Venezuela's total oil exports. Around six hundred thousand barrels of Venezuelan crude per day are refined at CITGO facilities in the United States. Although a cut off of Venezuelan oil to the United States is theoretically possible, it is unlikely given Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. market.¶ The United States is now less vulnerable to a cut off of supply from Venezuela as U.S. domestic production has risen and imports from elsewhere could relatively quickly replace Venezuelan oil. Venezuela's economy, on the other hand, has become more dependent on petroleum. Although production has stagnated since 2003, oil accounts for over 95 percent of Venezuela's export earnings, and export revenue pays for nearly 50

percent of the government's budget. Thus, although Venezuela is vulnerable to pressure via its dependence on its oil exports generally and the U.S. market and refineries specifically, global markets would likely react negatively to either an interruption of Venezuelan production or a crisis in U.S.-Venezuelan relations that threatens the bilateral trade in oil.

Maduro

Venezuelan regime instability collapses their oil market and economyLadislaw and Verrastro, 13 – (Sarah O. Ladislaw is co-director and senior fellow with the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Frank Verrastro is senior vice president and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS; “Post-Chavez Outlook for Venezuelan Oil Production,” 6 March 2013, http://csis.org/publication/post-chavez-outlook-venezuelan-oil-production)//HO

The winds of change are once again blowing in Venezuela. The recent announcement of Hugo Chavez’s passing has opened up a host of questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and the potential impact this leadership transition could have on Venezuelan oil production and global oil markets.¶ Venezuela is one of the largest oil and natural gas resource holders in the world. It is among the world’s largest oil producers (13th) and exporters (10th) and has historically been one of the United States’ largest sources of oil imports (4th behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico). Ever since the failed coup and the subsequent strike that brought about a short collapse in oil production in 2002,

followed by nationalization of the oil sector, onlookers have been waiting for indications that the regime’s approach to energy production would either fail once and for all or that some political change would bring about reform and rejuvenation of the energy sector. A political transition in Venezuela is now upon us but how it evolves could mean a lot for the energy sector and global energy markets.¶ Despite its enormous oil resources, Venezuela's oil production (regardless of whose figures you use) has long been in steady decline. In 2011 liquids production was 2.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) , down a million barrels per day since 1999. Some of this is reflects the changing cost and economics of Venezuelan oil production but field decline is significant and expertise and reinvestment are questionable and looking harder to come by. The internal technical and managerial capabilities of state run oil and gas company PDVSA have deteriorated since the 2002 strike and aftermath. Increasingly, PDVSA relies on contractors, as well as other private company partners, to keep the fields in production but reports state that contractors have not been paid in months and that the

political uncertainty in the country has even driven routine decision making to a halt.¶ The sustained political uncertainty has also slowed investment ; Russian and Indian companies were planning to invest in Venezuela's oil fields but so far have withheld incremental new money. China has not announced a new line of credit or extensions on its development-linked financing since last April.¶ At the same time that

production is dropping, highly subsidized domestic consumption of oil is increasing while revenue from exports is also declining . The United States remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports at 950,000 barrels per day in 2011, roughly 40 percent, plus another 185,000 barrels per day from the Caribbean that was Venezuelan sourced but those volumes area down as U.S. demand has declined and other crudes have become available. Venezuela's next largest export destinations are the Caribbean (31 percent) and then China (around 10 percent) . Venezuela sells to many of its Caribbean neighbors at below market rates due to extremely preferential financing relationships, including additional heavy subsidies

for Cuban exports. All of this culminates in an outlook for continued decline in oil production and a worsening economic outlook for Venezuela during a politically difficult time.¶ However, conventional wisdom argues that maintaining oil production is in the interest of any regime. Revenue from oil production is such a large part of Venezuela’s government balance sheet that no leadership could survive for long without a sustained cash flow that oil exports bring. The converse of this argument is that revenues generated by the energy sector are such an important source of power and influence in Venezuela that

there is potential for infighting over control of the sector. Moreover, the potential for strikes or instability among groups involved in the sector (some of whom have not been paid) could have additional negative impacts on production.¶ While oil markets have so far taken the news of Chavez’s demise in stride (many claim because the news was largely expected, others because the political

outcome is still so uncertain) an actual disruption in Venezuelan production could add pressure to an already difficult market outlook. The last year has produced a number of supply disruptions around the world from OPEC, the Middle East North Africa region, as well as non-

OPEC sources. If the economic outlook continues to improve and yield an increase global energy demand, if Iran sanctions remain in place, and if Venezuelan production be compromised, then oil prices would experience much more significant upside pressure from any new disruptions.

Maduro regime collapse halts the Venezuelan economyAlesina et al., 96 – (ALBERTO ALESINA ¶ Department of Economics, Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, ¶ and Center for Economic Policy Research ¶ SULE OZLER ¶ Department of Economics, University of California at Los Angeles; ¶ NOURIEL ROUBINI ¶ Stern School of Business, New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; ¶ and Center for Economic Policy Research ; ¶ PHILLIP SWAGEL ¶ Department of Economics, Northwestern University, “Political Instability and Economic Growth ,” Journal of Economic Growth, 1:189-211, June 1996, http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF00138862.pdf)//HO

Political instability reduces growth . This result is particularly strong for the case

of uncon- ¶ stitutional executive changes such as coups , as well for changes that significantly changes ¶ the ideological composition of the executive. The effect of instability on growth is less ¶ strong for the regular and frequent executive turnovers typical of industrial democracies. ¶ To some extent, and with some caveats, we also find that low growth increases the likeli- ¶ hood of government turnover,

particularly in the case of coups d'etat. However, we cannot ¶ find any difference in the growth performance of democracies compared to nondemocra- ¶ cies . Finally the occurrence of a government change increases the likelihood of subsequent ¶ changes, suggesting that political instability tends to be persistent. ¶ We conclude by highlighting several possible extensions of this paper. First, it seems ¶ worthwhile to continue in our effort to distinguish cases of major government changes ¶ from routine turnovers of leadership that entail no significant changes in the ideological ¶ orientation of the government. This paper has been reasonably successful on this point, ¶ in the sense that the results using our new variable for major changes shed new light on ¶ the results obtained with the Jodice and Taylor (1983) variable. However, further research ¶ on this point is called for. For instance, one would like to

address the following issue: in ¶ certain cases (Turkey in the late 1970s is a good example), frequent coalition reshuffling are ¶ indicators of an underlying political unrest (which, in the case

of Turkey, culminated in a ¶ military coup in 1980). By disregarding such reshuffling, one underestimates the amount of ¶ political instability. In other cases (Italy in the post-World War II period is a good example), ¶ minor coalition reshuffling do not imply any significant amount of real political instability. ¶ Second, one might try to classify the ideological direction of government changes and test 206 ¶ for the effects of different governments' ideology on economic growth. Such a classification ¶ on a left and right scale is reasonably easy for a subset of countries (for instance, OECD ¶ democracies) but much more problematic for other countries where religious, tribal, or ¶ regional conflicts dominate the polity. ¶ Third, one may want to shed

some more light on the channel linking political instability ¶ to growth. For instance, Alesina

and Perotti (1996) suggest that the link goes through the ¶ effect of instability on investment. However, they use a different measure of instability. ¶ Exploring the linking channel and comparing our measure of political instability with others ¶ is a fruitful research objective.

Oil

Instability causes oil industry collapse and price spikesAP, 13 – (Citing Sarah Ladislaw, co-director of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, “Chavez death may lead to higher Venezuelan oil output,” 6 March 2013, http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/03/06/business-chavez-oil.html)//HO

The world oil market's response to Chavez's death was muted — oil rose slightly in electronic trading in New York to $91.05 per barrel. That's 8 times the price of a barrel when Chavez took office

14 years ago.¶ Analysts say Venezuelan production will likely fall further in the short term because PDVSA executives may lack clear instructions from a government in transition about how to proceed. But Venezuelan oil supply has been declining for so long and oil markets are well supplied that traders are not concerned that further erosion in

Venezuelan supply will disrupt markets.¶ That could change, however, if instability erupts as new leaders jostle for power and new elections are held, according to Sarah Ladislaw, co-director of

the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies. Dramatic unrest could lead to a sharp drop in exports and higher oil prices.

Squo oil policies key to keep Maduro in power – alternative is democratic collapseKott, 12 – (Adam, Associate in Business Consulting - Trade and Risk Management at Sapient Global Markets, Founder and President at Premier Coaching LLC, also citing Thad Dunning, author of Crude Democracy, “Assessing Whether Oil Dependency in Venezuela Contributes to National Instability,” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol. 5, No. 3, Fall 2012, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss)//HOWhile the concept of ownership structures may be the most predominant ¶ counter-argument to the classical

resource curse theory, it is not the only ¶ one. Another school of thought posits that resource revenues can actually ¶ promote democracy . Thad Dunning argues that resource rents "reduce ¶ the extent to which democratic majorities redistribute private income or ¶ wealth away from the rich elites through taxation, land reform, or other ¶ measures ."24 Thus, high resource prices allow states to redistribute rents ¶ throughout society. This takes pressure off of the nation's elite to act as the "load-bearers" for national revenue and acts as a disincentive to stage ¶ a coup against the government. Dunning explores

Venezuela's relationship with oil in Crude Democracy. In this work he notes a positive relationship between oil rents and democratic stability in the South American ¶ nation,

pointing to a "degree of class 'compromise' and 'consensus' that ¶ was highly unusual in Latin American countries during this period."25 Oil ¶ rents allowed the State to increase spending on education and health by ¶ twenty and five times respectively, all without placing a heavy tax burden ¶ on the country's elite.

Aff

Uniqueness

Maduro Unsustainable

Laundry list of reasons why Maduro’s regime is unsustainableAlexander, 13 – (Harriet, “After An Incredibly Close Election, New Venezuelan President's Dream May Become A Nightmare,” The Telegraph, 15 April 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-election-why-nicolas-maduros-dream-may-become-a-nightmare-2013-4)//HOBut the dream of victory could yet become a nightmare for the children of Chavez, Venezuela's charismatic ruler who dominated the country from 1999 until his death last month. Far from leaving a stable, peaceful nation for his

followers, Chavez's legacy is that of a deeply divided and rudderless country.¶ Mr

Maduro, 50, won the election by the slimmest of margins, gaining 50.7 per cent of the vote. His challenger Henrique Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, won 49.1 per cent – a difference of just 235,000 votes in this country of 29 million.¶ Mr Capriles refused to recognise the result and said his team had a list of 3,000 voting irregularities, ranging from gunshots being fired at polling stations to the illegal reopening of voting centres after they had officially closed.¶ "I didn't fight against a candidate today, but

against the whole abuse of power," he said, demanding a recount.¶ "Mr Maduro, the loser was you ... This system is collapsing, it's like a castle of sand – touch it and it falls."¶ Mr Maduro said he would accept a full recount, even as he insisted his victory was clean and dedicated it to Chavez. The election board said Maduro's win was "irreversible" and gave no indication of when it might carry out an audit.¶ "We've had a fair, legal and

constitutional triumph," Mr Maduro told a victory rally. "To those who didn't vote for us, I call for unity.

We are going to work together for the security and economy of this country."¶ Yet creating that secure and economically-successful country will be an immense challenge.¶ Whereas Hugo

Chavez was a former paratrooper who could count on the doggedly-loyal support of the army – they even rescued him when Right-wing rivals staged an aborted coup in 2002 – Mr Maduro does not have that guarantee.¶ "I think Maduro has an enormous problem, he doesn't understand the military world," said Rocío San Miguel, head of Citizen Control, a Venezuela non-profit

that tracks military issues. He told the Wall Street Journal : "Without Chávez, who is going to sit on top of this military hierarchy that has co-opted public administration?"¶ Nearly half of Venezuela's 23 states have a former military officer as governor, while a quarter of the

cabinet is currently composed of members of the armed forces. The army also controls the ports – an

influential role in a country where currency controls have created shortages and a thriving black market.¶ "The president commanded the country like a barracks," said retired army Gen. Raúl Salazar, who

was Chavez's defence minister during his first year in office in 1999, but eventually broke with him. Mr Maduro "will have to win over the military and be attentive to them if he wants to stay in power."¶ Mr Maduro's main rival is Diosdado Cabello – a former army officer with powerful friends in the military – and the dynamic between them is key to the stability or otherwise of the government.¶ Many expected Mr Cabello, a colleague of Chavez from the military academy who took part in Chavez's 1992 failed coup attempt, to be named as successor rather than

the plodding Mr Maduro. Mr Cabello, who is the head of the National Assembly, has pledged to respect

Chavez's decision. But he is also known to harbour his own strong political ambitions, and commented cryptically on Twitter that "these results require deep self-criticism."¶

Another key challenge for the newly-elected president is the economy. Inflation is rampant and the economy is slowing, hampered by Byzantine currency controls and one of the world's worst crime rates. The country was ranked 165th out of 176 in Transparency International's corruption index, and businesses have been scared off by the Chavez regime's policy of nationalisations.¶ And yet despite the political, economic

and social headaches, the result could be seen as the best outcome for Venezuela.¶ The opposition has been enormously strengthened, with Sunday's close-fought battle in stark contrast to Chavez's 11 per

cent victory over Mr Capriles in October's election.¶ Mr Maduro will also have realised that reliance

on the ghost of Chavez will not be enough: he needs to actively improve the life of Venezuelans nationwide, and try to reunite the riven country. The country still has the world's largest oil reserves, and

Chavez's memory still resonates just enough to keep his project alive.¶ But Venezuelans everywhere will be hoping that Mr Maduro can now draw on more than dreamy visions of victory.

Pro-US

Venezuela will reach out to the US for assistance with oil – rapprochement within six monthsMetzker, 6/17 – (Jared, citing Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank; also citing Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, “Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations,” 17 June 2013, http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/)//HO

“The oil sector is in deep trouble in Venezuela – production is down and the economic situation is deteriorating,” explained Shifter. “They know they need foreign investment to increase production, and this is in part what has motivated Maduro to reach out.” ¶ If its economy continues to falter, Venezuela may be further tempted to embrace the United States, which has the largest, most sophisticated fossil fuel industry in the world. Kerry’s recent words suggest that the administration of President Barack Obama would be waiting with open arms. ¶

“Venezuela cannot confront its economic crisis and the United States at the same time,” Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank, told IPS, “and we are a pragmatic country which will deal with Maduro if it is in our interests.” ¶ Indeed, Negroponte said she was “optimistic” about the possibility of rapprochement between the two countries within the next six months. She notes a “troika” of issues on which the United States is looking for Venezuelan cooperation: counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and assistance in ridding Colombia of its FARC rebels.

Instability Inevitable

Instability now and it’s inevitableSafouane, 13 – (Hamza, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs with dual MA degrees in Economics and International Relations, “Venezuela News: Aftermath of Election Continues to Roil the Country,” January 2013, http://www.policymic.com/articles/37527/venezuela-news-aftermath-of-election-continues-to-roil-the-country)//HO

The situation in Venezuela will likely remain unstable for the next months, if not years. Two days ago, new Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro swore in his new cabinet while

the opposition, lead by his contender Henrique Capriles, keeps disputing his poll victory by calling for a vote recount. The country is once more enmeshed in a deep political crisis and instability as thousands of anti-Maduro protesters take the streets, leading to violence and deaths.¶ The opposition is bolstered by the good result obtained by Capriles this April. Indeed, about 260,000 ballot papers separate Maduro from Capriles , that

is about a 1% point difference. This is a great setback for Maduro, especially if we consider that during the October 2012 presidential elections, the late Hugo Chavez won against Capriles with a 10-percentage

points difference. Between the two elections, Maduro lost more than 600,000 ballot papers!¶ Such evolution exhibits the considerable polarization of Venezuelan society. Had the 2013 presidential

elections taken place a week later, or today, we might have ended up with Capriles' victory altogether. Maduro is no exception to the rule that succeeding charismatic leaders is always a perilous enterprise and rarely a success.¶ Maduro faces two major difficulties that play into the

hands of Capriles and the opposition in general. First, with the steep decline of the votes in favor of the one who considered himself as "the son of Chavez ," the Chavist faction is greatly weakened. Maduro will most likely, if not already, face criticism from his own base who would blame him for the poor results at the last elections. Second, the representativeness of the Venezuelan democracy has been weakened since the ability of the country’s electoral institution to organize fair elections is being questioned by the opposition.¶ This might, in fact, be the opportunity for Capriles to gain the upper hand. His campaign was far better than that of Maduro, as he promised to strengthen national unity and that he would maintain Chavez's social programs. The latter point was particularly reassuring for a large part of the society, which has seen its purchasing power going down after the government devaluated the bolivar in February 2013 by about a third against the dollar. That devaluation increased the price of imported basic food

commodities.¶ As for Capriles, his refusal to acknowledge the results is more tactical than political. First, he must dedicate all his efforts at maintaining his leadership in the opposition by championing the anger towards President Maduro. This might be harder said than done, because the opposition is composed of a wide spectrum ranging from the far left to the Republican right-wing parties. They therefore lack a

common ideological denominator. Additionally, he might be losing the grip on the opposition as violence is escalating.¶ Yet, time seems to be on his side. Capriles will probably dedicate all his efforts at keeping the opposition assembled against Maduro until the legislative elections in 2015. Besides, in three years, he can resort to the recall referendum, as provided by the Venezuelan constitution, to determine whether Maduro should be recalled from office.¶ Capriles is in a somewhat comfortable position, but one unknown remains: the

role of the army. If the climate of violence keeps spreading, chances are the army, who recently acknowledged the victory of Maduro, could become an obstacle.

Laundry list of reasons why instability is inevitable nowIHS, 13 – (Global information indexer, “Election 2013: Venezuelan opposition demands vote recount after narrow defeat,” 15 April 2013, http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065978107)//HO

The unpredictable narrow margin of Maduro's victory highlights the volatility of the political scene in Venezuela. A recount of 100% of the votes is expected to take place, with the CNE thought to be confirming the process in the coming hours. Maduro has agreed to a recount of the votes but given the narrow margin of his victory it is unclear yet if the results of such a process could turn

in Capriles' advantage. This is key, particularly as the votes of more than 100,000 Venezuelans living abroad –

which are expected to favour Capriles – will have to be counted. It is important to highlight, however, that the government will exercise significant control over the whole recount process; the most likely scenario is that the CNE will ratify Maduro as president and the gap between the two candidates will increase in Maduro’s favour. Given the PSUV's control of the electoral authority, the judiciary, and even the

armed forces – which play a key role in the process – it is going to be an uphill task for the opposition to force the CNE to revise the preliminary results.¶ The political outlook

in the coming days will be defined by the results of the recount process, and how the government and CNE handle alleged electoral irregularities. The armed forces are expected to play a key role behind the scenes, but their independence is in doubt given the strong influence that Chávez and the PSUV exercised over some of its more powerful factions and high command. However, the armed forces remain a complex and heterogenic institution and their behaviour in the event of a political and institutional crisis could be hard to predict, especially if political stability is compromised.

Venezuelan democratic institutions are weak and the armed forces are the only institution with the power to put pressure on the electoral authority, the judiciary, and the national assembly, to obtain certain outcomes and to abide by the law. The difficult task for the armed forces will be to reach a consensus. This task will be made more difficult if the results of the recount process favour the opposition – even if the CNE fails to acknowledge this – or if there is enough evidence of electoral irregularities

which could affect the final result.¶ Possible confrontations between pro-government and opposition supporters and unrest, including roadblocks in urban centres, are likely to take place in the coming days. The opposition will look to mobilise its supporters in the streets to demand the vote recount and make sure that the CNE looks into alleged electoral irregularities – particularly this week as the opposition will also seek to postpone Maduro's swearing-in ceremony, due to take place on Friday (19 April). As such, in principle, protests are not expected to compromise overall political stability

in Venezuela. Although protests are expected to be peaceful, violence could escalate if the government and the CNE, or even security forces, fail to manage the vote recount in a democratic and satisfactory way for the different political actors on the ground.¶

Heightened acts of unrest are more likely if Capriles fails to recognise the results of the recount process. Political stability is guaranteed by the armed forces, which will prevent bloodshed

between Venezuelans, and if unrest escalates direct or indirect military intervention is likely. If Capriles refuses to recognise Maduro's victory, the new president's legitimacy will be questioned and the shadow of a possible electoral fraud would add to the economic and social challenges that he will have to face in the next year, including dealing with increasing

inflation, crime and corruption, and shortages of food, medicines, basic goods, and even electricity and water. Political stability is not guaranteed in Venezuela after Maduro's election and possible ratification by the CNE, especially if Maduro fails to keep the different factions of the PSUV united. Chávez's death was a game changer for Venezuela and has led to a gradual process of reorganisation of

the political order. The deterioration of Maduro's leadership and the fragmentation of the PSUV are likely to take place after his first year in office if he fails to deal efficiently with the economic and social issues facing Venezuelans.

Link Turn

Credibility Turn

Maduro leadership causes Latin American democratic backslidingVentrell, ’13 [Patrick, Acting Deputy State Department Spokesman, CQ Transcriptions, May 1, lexis]QUESTION: (inaudible) also on the region, what is your reaction to the beating of the opposition leaders in the (inaudible) national assembly (inaudible) decision of the (inaudible) assembly to deny them the right to speak and to recognize president Madura (ph)? And how will it effect your evaluation on whether or not to recognize Madura's (ph) government, which is also (inaudible) recount that you (inaudible) requested?VENTRELL: Thanks for the question.Let me state clearly, violence has no place in representative democratic system, and is particularly inappropriate within the national assembly.We're deeply concerned by the violence that occurred, express our solidarity with those injured and again urge all parties to refrain from acts and attitudes which contribute to physical confrontations. And as I just said this earlier this week from this podium, but the rights of all Venezuelans including their elective representatives to assemble, freely and (sic) speak their minds and convictions are essential components of democracy as defined and agreed to be consensus in the Western hemisphere and the Inter-American Democratic Charter.So, we've been pretty clear about this going back and -- and I reiterated again today. In terms of the vote recount issue, we've said that it's the proven essential approach to do a prompt transparent recount in an inclusive manner to look at the vote count to help build confidence among the Venezuelan people. And our understanding is that some of that is still going on, but it's working its way through the Venezuelan system.

That causes proliferation and nuclear warSchulz 2K (Donald E., Chairman of Political Science - Cleveland State University, former Research Professor - SSI of the U.S. Army War College, March, The United States and Latin America: Shaping An Elusive Future, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/Pubs/display.cfm?pubID=31)A second major interest is the promotion of democracy. At first glance, this might appear to be a peripheral concern. For much of its history, the United States was perfectly comfortable with authoritarian regimes in Latin America, so long as they did not threaten higher priority interests like regional security or U.S. economic holdings. But that is no longer the case. U.S. values have changed; democracy has been elevated to the status of an “important” interest. In part, this has been because American leaders have gained a greater appreciation of the role of legitimacy as a source of political stability. Governments that are popularly elected and respect human rights and the rule of law are less dangerous to both their citizens and their neighbors. Nations which are substantively democratic tend not to go to war with one another. They are also less vulnerable to the threat of internal war provoked, in part, by state violence and illegality and a lack of governmental legitimacy. 6 In short, democracy and economic integration are not simply value preferences, but are increasingly bound up with hemispheric security. To take just one example: The restoration of democracy in Brazil and Argentina and their increasingly strong and profitable relationship in Mercosur have contributed in no small degree to their decisions to forsake the development of nuclear weapons. Perceptions of threat have declined, and perceptions of the benefits of cooperation have grown, and this has permitted progress on a range of security issues from border disputes, to peacekeeping, environmental protection, counternarcotics, and the combat of organized crime. Argentina has also developed a strong bilateral defense relationship with the United States, and is now considered a non-NATO ally.

No risk of Venezuelan coupFOX 6/2 (Fox News Latino, 6/2/2013, “Venezuela's Defense Minister Would Never Support A Coup To Unseat Maduro”, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/06/02/venezuela-defense-minister-would-never-support-coup-to-unseat-president-nicolas/ | JJ)Venezuela's defense minister would never entertain the idea of supporting a military coup to unseat President Nicolas Maduro. Adm. Diego Molero also said that Venezuela's military takes advice from Cubans but that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's statements on Sunday during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's recent release of a recording allegedly showing an influential pro-government figure discussing coup rumors with a Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that seemed to highlight Cuban influence in the oil-rich nation. In the lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV talk show Mario Silva discusses a power struggle between Maduro and National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom he accuses of conspiring

against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling" in the military. The speaker on the recording suggests Cabello's allies are behind false rumors that Molero might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's leaders and is said by analysts to have less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was pulled from state TV after the conversation's release. Maduro squandered a double-digit lead in less than two weeks, but defeated challenger Henrique Capriles by a razor-thin margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk show if "democratic and institutional stability is guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt were possible. Molero turned his head, looked straight into the camera and responded: "It's impossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of the constitutional concept that Maduro remain in the government until the people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for emphasis: "It's impossible

that such an idea would go through my head." Capriles has repeatedly complained about what he calls Cuba's growing influence over Venezuela's government and military under Maduro, whose first postelection foreign trip was to Havana. Cabello has denied plotting against Maduro and called for unity among the political heirs of Chavez, who are struggling with

widespread discontent over worsening food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil production. Molero did not provide details regarding Cuban military advice, saying only that Venezuela welcomes it, but makes its own decisions. Maduro has defended his government's close ties with Cuba, whose economy depends on Venezuelan oil shipments worth $3.2 billion a year that account for about half its consumption. Cuba partially pays for the oil in a barter deal, sending medics, sports trainers, political advisers and other professionals to Venezuela. The remainder is covered by 25-year, 1 percent interest loans.

No Impact

No Coup

No risk of coup – the defense minister would never let it happenToothaker 6/2 (Christopher Toothaker, staff writer at the Associated Press, 6/2/2013, “Venezuela defense chief rules out coup”, http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/pdf/Archive/Soc/soc.culture.venezuela/2013-06/msg00019.pdf | JJ)

CARACAS, Venezuela −− Venezuela's defense minister said Sunday that he would never support a military coup to unseat President Nicolas Maduro and has never even entertained the idea. Adm. Diego Molero also said that Venezuela's military takes advice from Cubans but

that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's statements during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's recent release of a recording allegedly showing an influential pro−government figure discussing coup rumors with a Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that seemed to highlight Cuban influence in the oil−rich nation. In the lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV talk show Mario Silva discusses a power struggle between Maduro and National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom he accuses of conspiring against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling" in the military. The speaker on the recording suggests Cabello's allies are behind false rumors that Molero might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's leaders and is said by analysts to have less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was pulled from state TV after the conversation's release. Maduro squandered a double−digit lead in less than two weeks, but defeated challenger Henrique

Capriles by a razor−thin margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk show if "democratic and institutional stability is guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt were possible. Molero turned his head, looked straight into the camera and responded: "It's impossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of the constitutional concept that Maduro

remain in the government until the people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for emphasis: "It's impossible that such an idea would go through my head." Capriles has repeatedly complained about what he calls Cuba's growing influence over Venezuela's government and military under Maduro, whose

first postelection foreign trip was to Havana. Cabello has denied plotting against Maduro and called for unity among the political heirs of Chavez, who are struggling with widespread

discontent over worsening food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil production. Molero did not provide details regarding Cuban military advice, saying only that Venezuela welcomes it, but makes its own decisions. Maduro has defended his government's close ties with Cuba, whose economy depends on Venezuelan oil shipments worth $3.2 billion a year that account for about half its consumption. Cuba partially pays for the oil in a barter deal, sending medics, sports trainers, political advisers and other professionals to Venezuela. The remainder is covered by 25−year, 1 percent interest loans.

No coup – a repeat of Chile won’t happenCiccariello-Maher 7/10 (George Ciccariello-Maher, author of “We Created Chavez: A People’s History of the Venezuelan Revolution”, 7/10/2013, in an interview by Samuel Grove, http://lab.org.uk/venezuela-people%E2%80%99s-power | JJ)

SG: We are approaching the 40th anniversary of the coup in Chile. How was the Venezuelan left able to defend the Chavez government in the way the Chilean left failed to defend Allende government, and will it continue to be able to defend itself under Maduro?

While we should be wary of comparing the two cases lightly, given the fundamental

differences (especially in the military) between Venezuela and Chile, we nevertheless must ask the

Chile question. Once we do, the strategic differences become clear. The Venezuelan process is not a repeat of the Chilean attempt to build "electoral socialism" or to take the "peaceful road" to socialism. It is a process that emerges out of the heated crucible of mass street rebellion and rioting alongside failed coups, and it was these explicitly non-electoral moments that made possible what has

come since. Once in power, moreover, it was clear that the Bolivarian Revolution was not going to tie the hands of the popular movements in the way that Allende often did. Informal popular militias are an important element of the process, and the establishment of formal militias within

the military can serve to counterbalance the generals. As the late general Alberto Müller Rojas often argued: the "people in arms" is the best defence against right-wing coups.