Venezuela Negative Wave 3 - MSDI 2013

8/12/2019 Venezuela Negative Wave 3 - MSDI 2013

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MSDI 2013 Wave 2 Negative

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Wave 2 NegativeMexico & Venezuela

Mexico Negative ........................................................................................................................................... 2

SQ will solve farm worker shortage ...................................................................................................... 3

Mexico will say no .............................................................................................................................. 5

Mexico will say noA2 Remittances provide justification................................................................... 7

No solvencyworkers wont come ...................................................................................................... 8

Mechanized Agriculture solves ........................................................................................................... 12

Higher wages solves ............................................................................................................................ 17

No labor shortage ............................................................................................................................... 19

Venezuela Negative .................................................................................................................................... 21

Politics Links ........................................................................................................................................ 22

A2 China AdvChina moving away from Venezuela ......................................................................... 24

A2 China AdvNo competition threat to US from China .................................................................. 29

No China-Taiwan War--- Interdependence ......................................................................................... 32

No China-Taiwan War--- No Attack ..................................................................................................... 34

No solvency - Alt causes to Venezuelan oil issues .............................................................................. 36

Venezuela Oil Revenue Bad ................................................................................................................ 38


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Mexico Negative


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SQ will solve farm worker shortage

Immigration reform will resolve farm worker shortages.

Beadle 2013.Amanda Peterson Beadle. May 31, 2013.

http://immigrationimpact.com/2013/05/31/how-the-immigration-reform-bill-could-help-undocumented-farmworkers-and-growers/#sthash.PWeyLaMC.dpuf

Approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants could become eligible for legal status underS.

744, the immigration reform bill the Senate is considering, including millions of undocumented

farmworkers. The importance of finding a way to create a legal workforce within the agriculture industry

is critical, as undocumented farmworkers make up an estimated 53 percent of agriculture workers.

Immigration reform changed my life. It gave my family freedom, Paulino Mejia said. It allowed us toreach the American dream. The benefits of legalization for farmworkers are numerous, if history isour guide. There are many differences and improvements in the 2013 immigration bill compared to

earlier reform measures, but the 1986 Immigration Control and Reform Act (IRCA) offers some examples

of the benefits legalization provides for undocumented farmworkers. As Paulino Mejia, who crossed the

border illegally from Mexico in 1980, told the Associated Press, gaining legal status from IRCA let him

settle in California and invest in his familys future. Immigration reform changed my life. It gave myfamily freedom, he said. It allowed us to reach the American dream. While Mejias wife continues topick crops, he said being a legal worker let him move on to better jobs so he could provide for his

family. Growers know they could lose skilled immigrant workers to higher-paying jobs if they can apply

for citizenship. We support the pathway to citizenship at our own peril, knowing we will lose the peoplewho are most skilled and most productive employees within a short time, Tom Nassif, president ofWestern Growers, told the AP. But that exodus to non-agricultural jobs might not be as fast as 1986

because of significant changes in the current bill. To qualify for the expedited legalization process,

farmworkers would have to remain in the agriculture industry for at least five years. The Senate bill also

addresses future legal immigration by setting up a workable guest worker program so that farmers can

bring in needed workers. This is a version of the AgJOBS proposal, an overhaul of the agriculture

temporary worker program that lawmakers have discussed for more than a decade. In April, Sen. DianneFeinstein (D-CA) helped to negotiate the agreement between agricultural workers and growers that was

attached to the Senates immigration bill. And as the debate about immigration reform continues,farmers are watching closely because they cannot fill open positions and need skilled immigrant

agricultural workers to harvest crops. In Colorado, growers are pushing for immigrationreform because

they are losing thousands of dollars without enough workers as squash and peppers rot in the fields.

The Senate immigration bill aims to create an immigration system that is built to last by legalizing those

who are already here, clearing out the backlogs of immigrants waiting to enter the U.S., and addressing

future legal immigration by those who want to work here. The combination of having a way to legalize

undocumented farmworkers and establishing a legal immigration system to bring in future workers

should help farmers to have the legal employees they need while allowing current undocumented

workers to improve their lives

CIRS Wvisa is key to solve the worker shortage

WSJ 6-5-13 (The Farm Worker Shortage U.S. agriculture needs more guest workers than the Senatebill allows 6-5-13)

Farm growers have reluctantly (and under Democratic pressure) endorsed the Gang of Eight's

framework, flaws and all, because they desperately need more workers. Although there's currently no


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cap on agriculture visas, only 5% of the country's two million farm workers are employed under the

current and very onerous H-2A visa program. One reason is because H-2A visas are only good for a

year and don't allow workers to change jobs. The fast-twitch bureaucrats at the Labor Department also

must certify that U.S. workers aren't available to do the job, so workers arrive late if they arrive at all.

In 2010, farmers reported more than $320 million in losses because they didn't get the workers they

needed. Illegal workers fill most of the gap, but increasingly the bigger companies are moving

production to Latin America. Growers estimate that 80,000 acres of fruit and vegetable production have

moved out of California alone because of the labor shortage. The good news is that the Gang of Eight

bill replaces the H-2A visa with a more rational guest-worker program. It would create a more flexible

"W" visa that would last three years and allow workers to change employers. The new program would

be administered by the Department of Agriculture, which has traditionally been less subject to union

manipulation than the Labor Department.


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Mexico will say no

Mexico says no to border security

Gardner 6/25(Simon Gardner, Mexico concerned about U.S. bid to beef up border security,

Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/us-usa-immigration-mexico-idUSBRE95O1C420130625)

The Mexican government on Tuesday voiced concern aboutU.S. congressional proposals to beef up

security along the U.S.-Mexico border, saying it was divisive and would not solve the problem of

illegal immigration. Immigration plays a significant part in the countries' bilateral relations. Millions of

Mexicans live and work on the U.S. side of the border and tens try to enter the United States annually,

often at peril to their lives. "Our country has let the United States government know that measures

which affect links between communities depart from the principles of shared responsibility and good

neighborliness," Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade said in a televised statement."We're

convinced that fences do not unite, fences are not the solution to the migration phenomenon and are

not in line with a modern, safe border." On Monday, a border security amendment seen as crucial to

the fate of an immigration bill backed by President Barack Obama cleared a key procedural hurdle in the

U.S. Senate, helping pave the way for the biggest changes to U.S. immigration law since 1986. The

amendment would double the number of agents on the southern border to about 40,000 over the next

10 years and provide more high-tech surveillance equipment to stop illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico

border. The amendment also calls for finishing construction of 700 miles of border fence. The bill would

also grant legal status to millions of undocumented foreigners, who would be put on a 13-year path to

citizenship.

Mexico says no to border security

Rueda 6/26(Manuel Rueda, Mexico Slams U.S. Border Buildup Plan, ABC News,http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/mexico-slams-us-immigration-reform-bills-proposed-

border/story?id=19495974#.UdGa2RaQJUQ)

It took a while, but after several calls for action from prominent intellectuals, the Mexican governmentfinally said something about the United States' proposed plans to scale up security onits side of the

border.Mexico's Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Jose Meade, read a statementto reporters Tuesday

afternoon in which he criticized a U.S. bill that would add 700 miles of border fencing and double the

number of Border Patrol agents, in exchange for the legalization of 11 million undocumented

immigrants. "We are convinced that fences do not unite [both nations]," Meade said. "The

enlargement of this wall is not congruent with plans to create a modern and secure border, and to

develop the region." Meade thanked the U.S. government for the bill's main aim: trying to establish a

legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S., many of whom are Mexican. But

he said that plans for increased fencing and patrolling - which have been attached to immigration

reform efforts by conservative politicians - would hamper commerce along the border and disrupt the

lives of 14 million people who live in counties on either side of the fence. "Our country has let the U.S.government know that measures which will affect the links between communities do not coincide with

the principles of good neighborship and shared responsibility," Meade said in typical diplomatic

parlance. His criticisms may sound tame, but they actually mark an interesting shift in the Mexican

government's positionon the immigration reform debate. In recent years, the administrations of

Presidents Enrique Pea Nieto and Felipe Caldern had stayed strictly on the sidelines of that debate,

reluctant to issue any pronouncements that might stoke U.S. worries about Mexican intervention in

American affairs. Some analysts have also argued that any Mexican declarations could be used as


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ammunition by congressional critics of immigration reform. But after momentum gathered around

plans for a law enforcement buildup on the border, several well-known analysts in Mexico pressed

their government to say something about U.S. immigration reform, arguing that at some point, Mexico

had to stand up for the interests of its citizens at home and abroad. "This is a contradiction,"historian

Lorenzo Meyer said in a Monday morning radio show about plans to build up border defenses. "The

United States wants commerce with Mexico, they want [laws that allow U.S.] investment, but they

don't want the unavoidable part of this relationship between unequal countries: The [Mexican]

workers."

Mexican govt rejects border security proposals

AP 6/30(My Fox Phoenix, Mexico raps US immigration bill on border security,http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/story/22685976/2013/06/25/mexico-raps-us-immigration-bill-on-

border-security)

The Mexican government is objecting toan immigration bill that appears headed for approval in the

U.S. Senate, saying theinitiative's heavy focus on border securityis not consistent with the relationship

between the two countries. Foreign Relations Secretary Jose Meade says that instead of expanding a

border fence, as proposed in the bill, the United States should modernize border bridges to expeditecommerce. In Meade's words, "measures that could affect ties between communities move away from

the principles of shared responsibility and neighborliness." He says that "fences are not the solution"

to the problem of illegal immigration.Meade read a statement to reporters Tuesday and didn't take

questions. It is the first time the Mexican government has addressed the U.S. immigration bill.

Theyll say no despite current silence on the issue

Miroff 6/27(Nick Miroff, In Mexico, dismay for the border surge proposed in U.S. Senateimmigration bill, Washington Post, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-27/world/40226919_1_immigration-bill-busy-border-crossing-border-surge)

Mexicans have reacted sorely to proposals for a border security surgethat would put 18,000

additional federal agents and hundreds of miles of new fencing between the two neighbors, measuresthat were included in a package of immigration legislation approved by the Senate on Thursday. Coming

less than two months after President Obama heaped praise on Mexicos progress and its importance asa top trading partner, the Senate bill debate and the security buildup offered by the amendment, known

as Corker-Hoeven, has reminded Mexicans that much of the United States views their country warily.

Mexico is the largest source of illegal drugs and unauthorized migrants entering the United States. But

Mexicans have bristled at a debate that has focused heavily on building new walls along the border,

rather than wider doors for legitimate trade and migration to pass through. Of the estimated 11 million

immigrants living unlawfully in the United States, at least 6 million are believed to be from Mexico.

Mexican President Enrique Pea Nietos administration has kept noticeably quiet on the U.S. debate,

saying only that his government supports the reform effort. However, the$46 billion in additional

security measures offered by the amendment prompted Mexican officials to break their silence thisweek, when Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade told reporters here that fences don't unite.


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Mexico will say noA2 Remittances provide justification

Remittances are decreasing to Mexicoplan cant solve

Ulysses de la Torre1/9/13 (Ulysses de la Torre runs the blog Diverging Markets Global Economic Blind

Spots and focuses on economics and financials, January 9 2013, Global Remittances Zig, Mexico Zags,http://www.divergingmarkets.com/2013/01/09/global-remittances-zig-mexico-zags/ //GG)

First came a report from BBVA that remittances to Mexico have decreased for five consecutive months,

with the $1.695 billion recorded in November apparently 5.1% lower than in November 2011.

Furthermore: Among the factors explaining the fall in remittances to Mexico over recent months are:the weak employment situation of Mexican migrants in the U.S., associated with the uncertainty

regarding the future of the US economy, with alternatives being sought to adjust the major fiscal

deficit.There is also a comparison effect with November 2011, when annual growth in remittances was

9.4%.

Remittances dropping now.

FocusEconomics6/13 (FocusEconomics is a leading provider of economic consensus forecasts formore than 70 countries in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Founded in 1998, FocusEconomics hasestablished a solid reputation among the world's major financial institutions, multinational companies

and government agencies as a reliable source for timely and accurate business intelligence. June 6 2013,

Remittances continue to drop again in April, http://www.focus-economics.com/en/economy/news/Mexico-Remittances-

Remittances_continue_to_drop_again_in_April-2013-06-04 //GG)

In April, remittances from workers abroad totalled USD 1.9 billion. The figure came in below the USD

2.0 billion received in the same month last year but beat market expectations, which had remittances

at USD 1.8 billion. The figure represents a 6.4% drop over the same month last year and marks the tenth

consecutive month of negative annual growth. That said, the figure marked an improvement over the

15.2% decline seen in March. In the 12 months up to April, remittances added USD 21.7 billion, which

constitutes a 6.4% contraction over the same period last year(March: -5.2% year-on-year). At their

current level, remittances are well below the peak of USD 26.0 billion reached in the full year 2007.


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No solvencyworkers wont relocate

Mexican labor cant fill the agricultural worker void

Roque Planas04/10/2013http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.html. In the future, Mexico may not be able to fill the void in the U.S. labor market. Currently, there may

be more immigrants returning to Mexico than entering the U.S.,according to the Pew Hispanic

Center. On top of that, Mexicos birth rate has declined from around seven children per mother in

1970, to a slightly more than two children per mother in 2007, according to ONeil. Mexicos growingeconomy and middle class will make emigrating to a foreign country less attractivefor many. The30-year wave of supply-led migration between the United States and Mexico has now passed, and will

likely never happen again, ONeil writes. Does this mean that Republicans, the party considered moreclosely allied with big businesses that could feel the pinch of a labor shortage, will become the

immigration party of the future 10 years from now? Its possible, ONeil told The Huffington Post

after a book launch at the Americas Society last week. I dont think itll happen any time soon. Butparties reinvent themselves. Immigration isjust one aspect of ONeil's book, which aims to set out aroad map for how the U.S. can forge a mutually beneficial relationship with its southern neighbor -- both

economically and diplomatically. ONeil is a fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations.

Cheap Mexican labor is deadimproving conditions and higher wages in Mexico

Brad PlumerJanuary 29, 2013Writer for the Washington Posthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/29/the-u-s-is-running-out-of-farm-

workers-immigration-reform-may-not-help/

For years, one of the groups pushing hardest for immigration reform has been the U.S. food industry.

Farmers have long grumbled about a shortage of labor, and theyve asked for policies that make it

easier to hire foreign workers from places like Mexico. Butlooser immigration laws may not be able to

keep our food cheap forever. A recent study suggests that U.S. farms could well face a shortage of low-

cost labor in the years ahead no matter what Congress does on immigration. Thats because Mexic o is

getting richer and can no longer supply as many rural farm workers to the United States.And it wontbe nearly as easy to import low-wage agricultural workers from elsewhere. For decades, farms in the

United States have relied heavily on low-wage foreign workers mainly from Mexico to work theirfields. In 2006, 77 percent of all agricultural workers in the United States were foreign-born. (And half of

those foreign workers were undocumented immigrants.) All that cheap labor has helped keep down U.S.

food prices, particularly for labor-intensive fruits and vegetables. But that labor pool is now drying up.

In recent years, weve seen a spate of headlines like this from CNBC: California Farm Labor ShortageWorst Its Been, Ever. Typically, thesestories blame drug-related violence on the Mexican border ortougher border enforcement for the decline. Hence the call for new guest-worker programs. But a new

paper from U.C. Davis offers up a simpler explanation for the labor shortage. Mexico is getting richer.And, when a country gets richer, its pool of rural agricultural labor shrinks. Not only are Mexican

workers shifting into other sectors like construction, but Mexicos own farms are increasing wages.

That means U.S. farms will have to pay higher and higher wages to attract a dwindling pool of available

Mexican farm workers. Its a simple story, says Edward Taylor, an agricultural economist at U.C. Davisand one of the studys authors. By the mid-twentieth century, Americans stopped doing farm work.And we were only able to avoid a farm-labor crisis by bringing in workers from a nearby country that

was at an earlier stage of development. Now that era is coming to an end. Taylor andhis co-authors
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/10/mexico-immigrants-labor_n_3055336.html


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argue that the United States could face a sharp adjustment period as a result. Americans appear

unwilling to do the sort of low-wage farm work that we have long relied on immigrants to do. And, the

paper notes, it may be difficult to find an abundance of cheap farm labor anywhere else potentialtargets such as Guatemala and El Salvador are either too small or are urbanizing too rapidly. So the

labor shortages will keep getting worse. And that leaves several choices. American farmers could simply

stop growing crops that need a lot of workers to harvest, such as fruits and vegetables. Given the

demand for fresh produce, that seems unlikely. Alternatively, U.S. farms could continue to invest in

new labor-saving technologies, such as shake-and-catch machines to harvest fruits and nuts. Underthis option, the authors write, capital improvements in farm production would increase the marginalproduct of farm labor; U.S. farms would hire fewer workers and pay higher wages. That could be aboon to domestic workers studies have found that 23 percent of U.S. farm worker families are belowthe poverty line. In the meantime, however, farm groups are hoping they can fend off that day of

reckoning by revamping the nations immigration laws. The bipartisan immigration-reform proposalunveiled in the Senate on Monday contained several provisions aimed at boosting the supply of farm

workers, including the promise of an easier path to citizenship. Taylor, however, is not convinced that

this is a viable long-term strategy. The idea that you can design a guest-worker program or any otherimmigration policy to solve this farm labor problem isnt realistic,he says. It assumes that theres a

willingness to keep doing farm work on the other side of the border.And thats already dropping off.

Mexican growth and demographics mean no worker availability from Mexico

The Economist 6-22 (The Economist June 22, 2013, Secure enough: Spending billions more onfences and drones will do more harm than good http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21579828-spending-billions-more-fences-and-drones-will-do-more-harm-good-secure-enough)

To bolster its argument that the border is secure, Barack Obamas administration points to the drop inapprehensions at or near it (see map). These bottomed out in 2011, and as the once-porous Tucson

sector has tightened there are signs that the action may be moving east, to Texas. Apprehension

numbers are a poor proxy for border security, but few dispute that, compared with the free-for-all of

the late 1990s and early 2000s, todays border is calm. Why might this be? Economics probably

matters more than enforcement. Americas downturn cost many illegal migrants their jobs, just as

opportunities were blossoming back home in Mexico. In the past two years Mexicos economy has

grown at a healthy 3.9% annually, creating jobs (albeit at much lower pay than in America). In the

longer term, demography is also likely to slow the flow of migrants. The number of 15-24-year-olds in

Mexico and El Salvador will start declining between 2015 and 2020. Since illegal crossers tend to be

young men, this will surely ease the pressure on the border. And over the next 40 years fertility rates in

both countries are forecast to drop below Americas.

Net Migration down to Zero, Mexicans No longer to Desire to live in the US

Khazan 2013(Olga Khazan Apr 17 2013, Global Editor at The Atlantic, Writer for the LA Times and

Forbes, Mexico Is Getting Better, and Fewer Mexicans Want to Leave,http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/04/mexico-is-getting-better-and-fewer-

mexicans-want-to-leave/275064/)

But here's one thing that might allay those fears: Mexicans, who make up the plurality of illegal

immigrants, are feeling better and better about their country, and fewer are interested in moving

across the border. Though an estimated 300,000 people still enter the U.S. illegally each year, that

represents a precipitous fall from the first half of the decade, when the number was 850,000. In 2010,

net migration to and fromMexico was approximately zero. Part of the reason, of course, is the global
http://www.theatlantic.com/olga-khazan/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/http://www.theatlantic.com/olga-khazan/


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economic downturn, which eliminated many of the low-wage job opportunities that Mexican

immigrants might have come to the U.S. to seek. But in addition to the U.S. becoming a less attractive

destination, part of the explanation for the drop is that prospects in Mexico are actually looking up.

Even though Mexico is clearly still struggling, there are signs that the country is gradually improving.

Crime is down in border cities like Ciudad Juarez. Mexico's fertility rate is falling and its population is

aging, meaning there are fewer young workers scrambling for jobs (half of allMexican immigrants are

under age 33). For the first time in decades, Mexico has afledgling middle class.Its GDP growthrivals

Brazil's,and economically, some economists think the country isdoing even better than the United

States.According to the OECD,Mexicans are about as satisfied with their lives as people in Iceland or

Ireland are.

Mexicans would rather migrate legally into a high skilled jobnot agricultural

employmentThe Economist 6-24 (June 24, 2013. The Economist. Mexico's middle class: Too bourgeois to bustables, http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2013/06/mexico-s-middle-class)OURreport this week from the Mexican-American border points out that Mexicans are becoming too

bourgeois to cross illegally into the United States. These days theyd rather stay in high school than riskdeserts, rattlesnakes, murderous bandidosand La Migra(as the gringo migration authorities are known)

just to bus tables north of the border. In fact, according to an exhaustivereport in May by North

American experts, known as the Regional Migration Study Group, Mexicans are much more likely to

have a degree before going north than they were seven years ago, and the number of years of schooling

of 15-19-year-olds is now pretty similar to that in United States. If more educated workers emigrate, it

raises their earning capacity, which gives them and their families even more chance of rising up the

ranks of the middle class when they and the money flow back to Mexico. In which case, even fewer will

need to go to el Norte. That is real progress.

No available Mexican workersbirth rate decreasesKirk Siegler 20134/30 NPR Why an Immigration Deal Wont Solve the Farmworker Shortage

Since the late 1990s, there has been a slow but steady decline in the number of rural Mexicans

migrating north. Agriculture economist Ed Taylor at the University of California, Davis, says that decline

has little to do with U.S. immigration policy. Taylor's research suggests that declining birth rates in

rural Mexico,where the economy has also improved in recent years, is the reason why fewer migrants

are coming to the U.S. And since farms in Mexico have also expanded to meet the year-round produce

demands north of the border, why risk going north? "Many[American] farmers also have this sense

that, if Washington can just get its house in order and pass immigration reform, their problems will be

over, and that isn't what our research is showing," Taylor says.

Improving Mexican economy reduces need to immigrate

Kacy Capobres, February 26, 2013, Fox News Latino,http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/02/26/mexicos-strengthening-economy-could-bode-

well-for-immigration-reform/#ixzz2Xo1kX2Ko
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/the-broken-windows-theory-worked-in-juarez/274379/http://agcenter.ucdavis.edu/AgDoc/demographicprofile.pdfhttp://agcenter.ucdavis.edu/AgDoc/demographicprofile.pdfhttp://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-07-23/world/35487303_1_migrants-middle-class-remittanceshttp://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-07-23/world/35487303_1_migrants-middle-class-remittanceshttp://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/10/15/the-mexican-mircale/http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/10/15/the-mexican-mircale/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-09-09/world/35494795_1_mexico-city-wal-mart-trade-missionhttp://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/mexico/http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21579828-spending-billions-more-fences-and-drones-will-do-more-harm-good-secure-enoughhttp://www.migrationpolicy.org/regionalstudygroup/http://www.migrationpolicy.org/regionalstudygroup/http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21579828-spending-billions-more-fences-and-drones-will-do-more-harm-good-secure-enoughhttp://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/mexico/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-09-09/world/35494795_1_mexico-city-wal-mart-trade-missionhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/10/15/the-mexican-mircale/http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/10/15/the-mexican-mircale/http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-07-23/world/35487303_1_migrants-middle-class-remittanceshttp://agcenter.ucdavis.edu/AgDoc/demographicprofile.pdfhttp://agcenter.ucdavis.edu/AgDoc/demographicprofile.pdfhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/the-broken-windows-theory-worked-in-juarez/274379/


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Thanks to an improving economy in their country, Mexicans are staying home. A Gallup poll released

Monday said just 14 percent of Mexicans say they would emigrate from the country, compared to 21

percent in 2007. In an interesting twist, the current numbers are almost identical to the 11 percent of

Americans who say they would leave the U.S. if given the opportunity. Since taking office, Mexico's

new president, Enrique Pea Nieto, has made it a point to stress that his country "will work to

improve the quality of life and opportunities in Mexico so that migration is a personal decision and

not a necessity." Due to burgeoning economic opportunities, the United States' largest immigrant

group already has few reasons to cross the border. As the United States continues to struggle to gain

economic momentum following the 2008 recession, the Mexican unemployment rate has dropped to

just 5 percent. U.S. Hispanics still have one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, at 9.8

percent. Antonio Garza, a former U.S .Ambassador to Mexico, says the poll is a snapshot of a trendthat you have seen in the country over the last several years. An expanding middle class in Mexicomeans more people are working here, he said. Mexicos economic performance is closely linked tothe U.S., where it sends almost 80 percent of its exports. But thanks to a spike in the agriculture

industry, Mexicos economy grew by close to 4 percent last year, compared to just 2 percent in the

U.S. More jobs are being created in Mexico which means there is less pressure for people toemigrate, Manuel Surez-Mier, a Mexican national and economist at American Universitys School of

International Service, told Fox News Latino. The implications of these findings could affect the recentpush for comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S. Its good news in the sense that it might helpthe U.S. government to come up with sensible immigration reform, Surez-Mier said. He said bothsides can benefit from the economic growth in Mexico. Its a good moment for the U.S.-Mexicobilateral relationship, Surez-Mier said.

Mexican workers have no desire to come to the US.

Nagi, May 13 (Ariel Nagi, May 2, 2013 http://www.cosmopolitan.com/cosmo-latina/blog/pew-mexican-survey)

All that political talk about how bad Mexicans want to steal America's jobs and dreams doesn't have

much validity any more. According to a poll by Pew Hispanic, 61 percent of Mexicans say they wouldn't

cross the border even if they had the chance to. This comes at the perfect timing, with the immigrationdebate heating up and talks about going the extra mile to strengthen border security, I thought it was

interesting to see that many Mexicans aren't seeing the appeal of coming here . As a matter of fact,

many polled are saying that life here isn't all that appealing. About 47 percent said they thought life

was better in the US, down 10 percent from 2009.
http://www.cosmopolitan.com/cosmo-latina/blog/pew-mexican-surveyhttp://www.cosmopolitan.com/cosmo-latina/blog/pew-mexican-surveyhttp://www.cosmopolitan.com/cosmo-latina/blog/pew-mexican-surveyhttp://www.cosmopolitan.com/cosmo-latina/blog/pew-mexican-survey


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Mechanized Agriculture solves

Guest worker programs prevent transition to ag mechanization

Philip L. Martin, Professor in the Agricultural and Economic Resources Department and Chair of the

Comparative Immigration and Integration Program at the University of California, Davis, served on theU.S. Commission on Agricultural Workers from 1989 to 1993 andMichael S. Teitelbaum, ProgramDirector at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, served as a member of the U.S. Commission on International

Migration and Cooperative Economic Development from 1987 to 1990, and as Vice Chair of the U.S.

Commission on Immigration Reform from 1990 to 1997. The Mirage of Mexican Guest Workers Foreign

Affairs Nov/Dec 2001, Vol. 80, Issue 6This tendency toward permanence is easily explained -- guest worker programs are virtual recipes for

mutual dependence between employers and the migrants who work for them . Employers naturally

grow to depend on the supply of low-wage and compliant labor,relaxing their domestic recruitment

efforts and adjusting their production methods to take advantage of the cheap labor. History has

shown that in agriculture (where many Mexican guest workers would be employed), a pool of cheap

workers gives farm owners strong incentives to expand the planting of labor-intensive crops ratherthan invest in mechanized labor-saving equipment and the crops suitable for it. Thus, although the

labor supply is supposed to be available only temporarily, farmers adapt in ways that ensure their

continued need for workers willing to accept such low wages.On the other side of the coin, those

bargain wages for employers are a boon for the "temporary" workers, who earn much more than they

could at home. For instance, laborers in U.S. fruit and vegetable agriculture make between $5 and $7 an

hour, as opposed to 50 cents an hour in Mexico. Past guest worker programs have shown that the

participants and their families grow accustomed to the increased income; they therefore have no

incentive to return home unless rapid economic and job growth there creates commensurate

opportunities. As the workers' "temporary" sojourns extend over time, the odds of their ever returning

to their homeland diminish, and young people in the home country come to regard employment abroad

as normal.

Mechanizing now is key to save the agriculture industry

Sara R. HalleJ.D. Drake University Law School, 2007 Drake Journal of Agricultural Law Summer, 200712 Drake J. Agric. L. 359 PROPOSING A LONG-TERM SOLUTION TO A THREE-PART AMERICAN MESS: U.S.

AGRICULTURE, ILLEGAL LABOR, AND HARVEST MECHANIZATION

Unfortunately, it looks as though United States agriculture will continue down the same short-sighted

path it has been on for the last century. Though proposals calling for a new guest worker program such

as President Bush's January 7, 2005 proposal are unlikely to be enacted, continuation of the status quo

will lead to more problems for U.S. agricultural production. U.S. dependency on the cheap labor

provided by guest workers and illegal immigrants, and their dependency on American agricultural jobs,

will continue to grow. In the meantime, U.S. agriculture will become increasingly unable to compete

with Third World countries' production of agricultural goods, due to the appallingly substandard wagesthey pay (even by American agriculture's standard). Furthermore, U.S. agriculture will be left in

agricultural production's primitive past - hand harvesting - as other First World countries mechanize

production of agricultural goods. Eventually, this path will lead to the demise of the American

agricultural industry.Some believe the end of American agriculture is inevitable. 252 If the United

States continues down this path, that is certainly true. Reducing American agriculture's dependency on

cheap immigrant labor and mechanizing the harvesting process is the United States' only hope of

salvaging its agricultural industry. This process will require the investment of much time and money. It


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will require lead-time, in which to plan and implement the various necessary programs(i.e., a program

to verify workers' legal status, an [*389] enforcement program through the INS, etc.). 253 A crucial

transition period will also be necessary, during which a labor supply will be needed. 254 This should not

pose a problem given the large supply of willing, albeit mostly illegal, supply of farm workers currently in

the country.

Ag mechanization worksSara R. HalleJ.D. Drake University Law School, 2007 Drake Journal of Agricultural Law Summer, 200712 Drake J. Agric. L. 359 PROPOSING A LONG-TERM SOLUTION TO A THREE-PART AMERICAN MESS: U.S.


Similar mechanization successes have been accomplished with other crops,such as the mechanical

harvesting of tart cherries, prunes, and sweet cherries. 171 And while fresh market grapes remain hand

harvested, grapes intended [*379] for juice and wine are machine harvested almost 100 percent of the

time today. 172 Successes such as these were noticed in recent years by Florida citrus growers, whose

profit margins have been decreasing as a result of increased harvest costs and steady or decreasing fruit

prices. 173 This prompted the Florida Department of Citrus to resurrect a previously abandoned

mechanical harvesting program aimed at developing harvesting systems designed to reduce harvesting

costs. 174 Partly motivated by concern over price competition with foreign citrus growers and partly toreduce dependency on hand harvesters, the program appears promising. 175 There is great potential

for future advancement in agricultural mechanization technology. 176 Though public funding for such

research declined after the 1970s, 177 advancements continue to be made. Computer capability and

sensor technology has rapidly advanced. 178 Machines capable of sorting out damaged produce are

becoming more readily available. 179 Plant breeders continue to develop new varieties of produce

that make utilization of mechanical harvesting technology more feasible.180 To enable the

mechanical harvesting of deciduous tree fruits (such as apples), breeders work on developing fruit that

mature more uniformly, are more firm, and have a "compact growth habit," which "produces fruit in

narrow canopies and on short/stiff limbs." 181 Called "tree architecture," this plant breeding strategy

"places fruit in a 'harvestable' position for efficient removal and collection." 182 New varieties of

produce make maturity more uniform, produce higher yields, and spread out the length of the harvestseason. 183 All this allows for increased productivity while decreasing American dependency on foreign

field laborers. 184 [*380]

Lack of labor drives mechanization

Martin 2013(Philip Martin, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the Uni- versity ofCalifornia, Davis, and J. Edward Taylor, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Director of

the Center on Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim, February 2013, Ripe with Change:Evolving Farm Labor Markets in the United States, Mexico, and Central America, Wilson Center,Migration Policy Institute, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/RMSG-Agriculture.pdf)

With no policy changes, there is little reason to change the current labor market, which relies on the

continued influx of new workers to replace those who exit.As the supply of west-central Mexicans

declined, US (and export-oriented Mexican) farmers turned to workers from southern Mexico as well as

some workers from more rural Central American countries such as Guatemala and Honduras. If policy

remains unchanged and these sources of rural labor diminish over time, US farmers could go further

afield for workers, who would likely have to be admitted legally if they came from Asian countries

such as Bangladesh or China. Alternativelyor simultaneously if nearby supplies ofMexicanand Central American labor decline, we might expect upward pressure on farm labor costs that speed

up labor-saving mechanization and may partially counteract the movement of workers out of farming.


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Lack of immigrants drives up the cost of labor which drives shift to mechanization

Martin 2013(Philip Martin, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the Uni- versity ofCalifornia, Davis, and J. Edward Taylor, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Director of

the Center on Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim, February 2013, Ripe with Change:Evolving Farm Labor Markets in the United States, Mexico, and Central America, Wilson Center,

Migration Policy Institute, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/RMSG-Agriculture.pdf)Given a historical abundance of foreign farm labor, most recent mechanization has been stimulated not

by wages but by other considerations, for example, price competition from international trade. As the

down- ward trend in farm labor supply continues, labor costs will become an increasingly important

motivator of change in both production and labor management practices.It remains to be seen

whether the skill duality of the US farm workforce will persist in an era of dwindling low-skilled farm

labor supply. There is good reason to expect that US agriculture will have to produce with a smaller

force of more highly skilled workers, paired with labor-saving mechanization and management

technologies.

Ag is mechanizing due to labor shortages

Tom Karst08/27/2010The Packer Panel sees bright future for apples in 2020http://thepacker.com/Panel-sees-bright-future-for-apples-in-

2020/Article.aspx?oid=1220723&fid=PACKER-TOP-STORIES&aid=117

Worries about labor availability may be most concerning to growers over the next decade, said Jim

McFerson, manager of Washington Tree Fruit Research Commission, Wenatchee. However immigration

reform is eventually addressed, McFerson said that growers will focus on reducing their expenses per

box and try to maximize their revenues. He said growers are under pressure to pick the right varieties

that match up with consumer preferences. On the plus side, he said, the next 10 years should feature

the introduction of many improved apple varieties by researchers. Getting the right variety, the right

strain of apple for a specific site will be a big focus for growers, he said. In addition, growers are looking

at investing in high-density, two-dimensional fruit wall systems in their orchards to maximize yield.

McFerson predicted more growers will invest in netting to protect their orchards from hail. Reductive

materials to be put in orchards to direct light, such as white plastic laid down between rows of trees, willbe relied on to improve the trees vigor and fruit development. Reducing labor needs throughmechanization is already an area of considerable research focus,he said. Mechanical thinners, robotic

pruning, harvest platforms and mechanical pickers are some of the technology being tested today and

likely to see greater commercial application by 2020.

Robots are already replacing workers and will continue to.

Kevin Kelly 201212/24 Better than Human: Why Robots Will And Must Take Our Jobs

Its hard to believe youd have an economy at all if you gave pink slips to more than half the labor force.But thatin slow motionis what the industrial revolution did to the workforce of the early 19th

century. Two hundred years ago, 70 percent of American workers lived on the farm. Todayautomation has eliminated all but 1 percent of their jobs, replacing them (and their work animals)with

machines. But the displaced workers did not sit idle. Instead, automation created hundreds of millions

of jobs in entirely new fields. Those who once farmed were now manning the legions of factories that

churned out farm equipment, cars, and other industrial products. Since then, wave upon wave of new

occupations have arrivedappliance repairman, offset printer, food chemist, photographer, webdesignereach building on previous automation. Today, the vast majority of us are doing jobs that nofarmer from the 1800s could have imagined. It may be hard to believe, but before the end of this


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15

century, 70 percent of todays occupations will likewise be replaced by automation. Yes, dear reader,even you will have your job taken away by machines. In other words, robot replacement is just a matter

of time. This upheaval is being led by a second wave of automation, one that is centered on artificial

cognition, cheap sensors, machine learning, and distributed smarts. This deep automation will touch all

jobs, from manual labor to knowledge work. First, machines will consolidate their gains in already-

automated industries. After robots finish replacing assembly line workers, they will replace the workers

in warehouses. Speedy bots able to lift 150 pounds all day long will retrieve boxes, sort them, and load

them onto trucks. Fruit and vegetable picking will continue to be robotized until no humans pick

outside of specialty farms.

Guest workers trade off with ag mechanization

Sara R. HalleJ.D. Drake University Law School, 2007 Drake Journal of Agricultural Law Summer, 200712 Drake J. Agric. L. 359 PROPOSING A LONG-TERM SOLUTION TO A THREE-PART AMERICAN MESS: U.S.


To a large extent the United States government has historically discouraged research and

development by facilitating guest worker programs, subsidizing farmers, and failing to enforce

sanctions against agricultural employers who knowingly employ illegal workers. 72 Combined, thesethree factors discourage farm owners from investing in the mechanization of their harvesting

operations.

Robotics advancements can replace workers

Christopher Mims 20118/30 Down on the Farm, Will Robots Replace Immigrant Labor? MITTechnology Review

Youd think that the most challenging, lowest-paid labor in the U.S. was safe from automation, but as

robots become increasingly sophisticated, that could change.A quick search of Google Scholar will

reveal that the engineering literature is home to more papers on agricultural robots than ever. The

majority are from China, which might seem strange given the historically low cost of labor there. Buttimes are changing: Foxconn, the electronics manufacturer famous for building Apple products as well as

worker suicide, is moving to incorporate one million robots into its assembly lines in just three years.

Wages are rising in China, as are the demands of workers. In an age in which increasingly complex tasks

can be performed by semi-autonomous machines, robots have become the ultimate scabs.

Down on the farm, its no different. Industrial agriculture has already simplified the otherwisetopographically complicated landscape a robot must navigate. Orchards, after all, have been planted in

regular rows for centuries. The same technology that allows for self-driving cars is driving this nascent

revolution. These advances include optical range-finding technology like LIDAR, which can give robots

the equivalent of human visual acuity and even better depth perception. Another important

ingredient, according to an abstract just submitted to the Automation and System Technology in Plant

production conference of the Nordic Association of Agricultural Scientists, is the open-sourcing of robot

control software and hardware. Using FroboMind software, which runs on top of the open-source Robot

Operating System from Willow Garage, researchers were able to drive the FroboBox, astraightforward

Debin Linux-powered computerwhose flexible outputs can be used to drive almost any kind of

automate-able farm machinery.


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Mechanization turns the aff

Pastor & Alva, 04, Manuel Pastor Jr. Professor of Latin American and Latino Studies UC Santa Cruz,Social Justice Vol. 31 No. 1-2, Guest Workers and the new Transnationalism: Possibilities and Realitiesin an Age of Repression http://cjtc.ucsc.edu/docs/Guest_Workers_Transnationalism.pdfLimiting guest worker programs to particular sectors of the economy is less onerous than limiting the

employment relationship to one firm. Still, constraining workers mobility is likely to limit options andpower and such sectoral agreements are also likely to have negative consequences for productivitygrowth in any particular sector. Agriculture, for example, has become reliant on immigrant labor,

particularly undocumented labor, and this has impeded investment in mechanization that might raise

skills and hence wages. Instead, employers invest resources in pushing for more open borders, larger

guest worker programs, or reduced INS enforcement. When capital has mobility but labor does not,

power is necessarily imbalanced.


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17

Higher wages solves

Higher wages will provide additional labor with no relevant hit to profit.

Carney 5/24(John Carney, senior editor at CNBC.com, covering Wall Street, hedge funds, financial

regulation and other business news, May 24, 2013, CNBC News, Famers Solve Labor Shortage by RaisingPay, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-

pay.html)

The Department of Agriculture reports: Farm operators paid their hired workers an average wage of

$11.91 per hour during the April 2013 referenceweek, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Field workers

received an average of $10.92 per hour, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Livestock workers earned

$11.46, up 51 cents. The field and livestock worker combined wage rate, at $11.10 per hour, was up 48

cents from a year earlier.Hired laborers worked an average of 40.3 hours during the April 2013

reference week, compared with 39.2 hours a year earlier. Maybe someoneshould tell the Partnership

for a New American Economy about this.It's just crazy enough that it may work! By the way, don't

worry about this bankrupting the great American farmer. Farm profits are expected to rise by more

than 13 percentthis yearto more than double what they were as recently as 2009.

Higher wages solves with American workerswithout an effect on food prices

Sowell 2013 (Thomas Sowell, Rose and Milton Friedman Senior Fellow on Public Policy at the HooverInstitution, JUNE 10, 2013, Washington Examiner, Farmers should raise pay if they want more workers,

http://washingtonexaminer.com/thomas-sowell-farmers-should-raise-pay-if-they-want-more-

workers/article/2531569)

This is not just a matter of semantics, but of economics. In the real world, employers compete for

workers, just as they compete for customers for their output. And workers go where there is more

demand for them, as expressed by what employers offer to pay. Farmers may wish for more farm

workers, just as any of us may wish for anything we would like to have. But that is wholly different from

thinking that some third party should define what we desire as a "need," much less expect governmentpolicy to meet that "need." In a market economy, when farmers are seeking more farm workers, the

most obvious way to get them is to raise the wage rate until they attract enough people away from

alternative occupations -- or from unemployment. With the higher labor costs that this would entail,

the number of workers that farmers "need" would undoubtedly be less than what it would have been if

there were more workers available at lower wage rates, such as immigrants from Mexico. It is no

doubt more convenient and profitable to the farmers to import workers at lower pay than to pay

American workers more. But bringing in more immigrants is not without costs to other Americans,

including both financial costs in a welfare state and social costs, of which increased crime rates are

just one. Some advocates of increased immigration have raised the specter of higher food prices

without foreign farm workers. But the price that farmers receive for their produce is usually a fraction of

what the consumers pay at the supermarket. And what the farmers pay the farm workers is a fraction of

what the farmer gets for the produce. In other words,even if labor costs doubled, the rise in prices at

the supermarket might be barely noticeable. What are called "jobs that Americans will not do" are in

fact jobs at which not enough Americans will work at the current wage rate that some employers are

offering. This is not an uncommon situation. That is why labor "shortages" lead to higher wage rates. A

"shortage" is no more quantifiable than a "need," when you ignore prices, which are crucial in a market

economy. To discuss "need" and "shortage" while ignoring prices -- in this case, wages -- is especially

remarkable in a usually market-savvy publication like the Wall Street Journal. Often shortages have

been predicted in various occupations -- and yet never materialized. Why? Because the pay in those
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-pay.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-pay.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100762178http://www.cnbc.com/id/100762178http://washingtonexaminer.com/thomas-sowell-farmers-should-raise-pay-if-they-want-more-workers/article/2531569http://washingtonexaminer.com/thomas-sowell-farmers-should-raise-pay-if-they-want-more-workers/article/2531569http://washingtonexaminer.com/thomas-sowell-farmers-should-raise-pay-if-they-want-more-workers/article/2531569http://washingtonexaminer.com/thomas-sowell-farmers-should-raise-pay-if-they-want-more-workers/article/2531569http://www.cnbc.com/id/100762178http://www.cnbc.com/id/100762178http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-pay.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/24/famers-solve-labor-shortage-by-raising-pay.html


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18

occupations rose, causing more people to go into those occupations and causing employers to reduce

how many people they "need" at the higher pay rates. Virtually every kind of "work that Americans

will not do" is in fact work that Americans have done for generations. In many cases, most of the

people doing that work today are Americans. And there are certainly many unemployed Americans

available today, without bringing in more foreign workers to meet farmers' "needs."


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19

No labor shortage

No true labor shortageUS workers exist and can solve

THOMAS SOWELL June 10,2013, Investors Business Daily, http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-

on-the-right/061013-659422-agriculture-does-not-need-immigrant-workers.htm#ixzz2XoB4vdfuOne of the most common arguments for allowing more immigration is that there is a "need" for

foreign workers to do "jobs that Americans won't do," especially in agriculture. One of my most

vivid memories of the late Armen Alchian, an internationally renowned economist at UCLA, involved a

lunch at which one of the younger members of the economics department got up to go get some more

coffee. Being a considerate sort, the young man asked, "Does anyone else need more coffee?"

"Need?" Alchian said loudly, in a cutting tone that clearly conveyed his dismay and disgust at hearing an

economist using such a word. A recent editorial on immigration in the Wall Street Journal brought

back the memory of Alchian's response, when I read the editorial's statement about "the needs of an

industry in which labor shortages can run as high as 20%" namely agriculture. Although "need"

is a word often used in politics and in the media, from an economic standpoint there is no such thing

as an objective and quantifiable "need." You might think that we all obviously need food to live. But

however urgent it may be to have some food, nevertheless beyond some point food becomes not only

unnecessary but even counterproductive and dangerous. Widespread obesity among Americans shows

that many have already gone too far with food. This is not just a matter of semantics, but of economics.

In the real world, employers compete for workers, just as they compete for customers for their output.

And workers go where there is more demand for them, as expressed by what employers offer to pay.

Farmers may wish for more farm workers, just as any of us may wish for anything we would like to have.

But that is wholly different from thinking that some third party should define what we desire as a

"need," much less expect government policy to meet that "need." In a market economy, when

farmers are seeking more farm workers, the most obvious way to get them is to raise the wage rate until

they attract enough people away from alternative occupations or from unemployment. With thehigher labor costs that this would entail, the number of workers that farmers "need" would undoubtedly

be less than what it would have been if there were more workers available at lower wage rates, such asimmigrants from Mexico. It is no doubt more convenient and profitable to the farmers to import

workers at lower pay than to pay American workers more. But bringing in more immigrants is not

without costs to other Americans, including both financial costs in a welfare state and social costs, of

which increased crime rates are just one. Some advocates of increased immigration have raised the

specter of higher food prices without foreign farm workers. But the price that farmers receive for their

produce is usually a fraction of what the consumers pay at the supermarket. And what the farmers pay

the farm workers is a fraction of what the farmer gets for the produce. In other words, even if labor

costs doubled, the rise in prices at the supermarket might be barely noticeable. What are called

"jobs that Americans will not do" are in fact jobs at which not enough Americans will work at the

current wage rate that some employers are offering. This is not an uncommon situation.That is

why labor "shortages" lead to higher wage rates. A "shortage" is no more quantifiable than a "need,"when you ignore prices, which are crucial in a market economy. To discuss "need" and "shortage" while

ignoring prices in this case, wages is especially remarkable in a usually market-savvy publicationlike the Wall Street Journal. Often shortages have been predicted in various occupationsand yetnever materialized. Why? Because the pay in those occupations rose, causing more people to go into

those occupationsand causing employers to reduce how many people they "need" at the higher pay

rates. Virtually every kind of "work that Americans will not do" is in fact work that Americans have

done for generations. In many cases, most of the people doing that work today are Americans. And


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20

there are certainly many unemployed Americans available today, without bringing in more foreign

workers to meet farmers' "needs


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21

Venezuela Negative


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Politics Links

Plan costs capital

Farnsworth 2010(Eric Farnsworth, contributing blogger to americasquarterly.org and Vice President

of the Council of the Americas in Washington DC, November 3, 2010, Now What? Elections and theWestern Hemisphere, Americas Quarterly, http://americasquarterly.org/node/1976)Tuesdays election results were not unexpected. The question now is what will they mean for U.S. policyin the Western Hemisphere. The outlines are already clear: expect a sharper tone across the board of

Congressional oversight and initiative toward the Administration in trying to impact policy. Here are a

few predictions for regional policy based on the midterm election results. The new chair of the House

Foreign Affairs Committee will be Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; the chair of the Western Hemisphere

Subcommittee will be Connie Mack. Together with newly-elected Senator Marco Rubio, this troika of

Florida Republicans may well seek to reverse the Obama Administrations slow motion liberalization of

Cuba policy. Expect also a harder line coming from Congress toward Venezuela and the possible

renewal of an effort to sanction Venezuela as a state sponsor of terror. As well, Chairman-To-Be Ros-

Lehtinen has earned strong pro-Israel credentials and is a strong supporter of Iran sanctions; furthermoves of Brazil or Venezuela toward Tehran could well prove to be a point of friction between the

Administration and Congress if the Administration is perceived as downplaying their significance.

Reaching out to Venezuela is controversial

Gomez 2012(Serafin Gomez, June 11, 2012, Obama downplays security threat from Chavez, drawsGOP condemnation, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/11/romney-slams-obama-over-tunning-comment-on-chavez/)

President Obama saidin a Miami TV interview that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has not posed a

"serious" security threat to the U.S., prompting a cascade of criticism fromMitt Romney and

Republican lawmakers. In an interview that aired Tuesday on the Spanish-language channel America

TeVe, Obama discussed the Venezuelan leader when asked about his country's ties to Iran. "We'realways concerned about Iran engaging in destabilizing activity around the globe. But overall my sense is

... that what Mr. Chavez has done over the last several years has not had a serious national security

impact on us," Obama said in response. "We have to be vigilant. My main concern when it comes to

Venezuela is having the Venezuelan people have a voice in their affairs, and that you end up ultimately

having fair and free elections, which we don't always see." By Wednesday afternoon, several

Republicans openly condemned the remark, with Romney calling it "stunning and shocking." "The

idea that this nation, that this president doesn't pose a national security threat to this country is simply

nave. It is an extraordinary admission on the part of this president to be completely out of touch with

what's happening in Latin America," the GOP candidate told Fox News.

Republicans blast Obama over engaging with Venezuela

CNN 2012(June 11, 2012, Romney, Obama bicker over Venezuela, Political Ticker,http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/11/romney-criticizes-obama-over-venezuela-comments/)

Mitt Romney andPresident Barack Obama traded barbsWednesday over Obama's national security

assessment of Venezuelain an interview, with Romney calling the comments "stunning and shocking"

and Obama's campaign saying Romney was only playing into the hands of that nations dictator.Romney was joined by several prominent Republicansas well as the Republican National Committee,

which called Obama "out of touch. Obama demonstrates "an alarmingly nave understanding of the

challenges and opportunities we face in the Western Hemisphere,"Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said in


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a statement. Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt responded early Wednesday evening, saying it is

"disturbing that Mitt Romney is trying to score cheap political points by blustering and misrepresenting

the President's record while failing to outline any coherent foreign policy strategy." The president told a

local Miami television station on Tuesday that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has had little impact

on the U.S. of late but the South American country requires continued attention particularly when it

comes to Iranian influence. "We're always concerned about Iran engaging in destabilizing activity

around the globe," Obama told Miami's WJAN. "But overall my sense is that what Mr. Chvez has done

over the last several years has not had a serious national security impact on us. "We have to be

vigilant," he continued. "My main concern when it comes to Venezuela is having the Venezuelan people

have a voice in their affairs, and that you end up ultimately having fair and free elections, which we

don't always see." Latino voters, who are particularly concerned about Chavez's rule of Venezuela,

make up a voting bloc seen as crucial this year. Venezuela has supplied the embattled Syrian President

Bashar al-Assad with several shipments of diesel fuel at a time when the U.S. and other nations are

imposing sanctions on the country as the government continues a deadly crackdown on the uprising

against his regime. In January, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad toured several Latin American

countries and met with Chavez, who said his country and Iran would work together against the "imperial

insanity" of the United States, which he called a "threat for the world." Romney's statement was sharply

critical of Obama - blasting him for a continued "pattern of weakness in his foreign policy," but offeredno specifics about what he would do differently from Obama. "As president, I will speak clearly and

resolutely on the challenges we face so that both our allies and our adversaries will know where we

stand," Romney said. His criticism of Obama argued it was "disturbing to see him downplaying the

threat posed to U.S. interests by a regime that openly wishes us ill.""Hugo Chavez has provided safe

haven to drug kingpins, encouraged regional terrorist organizations that threaten our allies like

Colombia, has strengthened military ties with Iran and helped it evade sanctions, and has allowed a

Hezbollah presence within his country's borders," Romney said. "And he is seeking to leadtogetherwith the Castrosa destabilizing, anti-democratic, and anti-American 'Bolivarian Revolution' acrossLatin America." His campaign also bolstered the critical paper statement from Romney with similarly

harsh statements from Romney campaign surrogates, including Rep. Connie Mack of Florida and former

Gov. John Sununu. Obama's campaign spokesman responded with a statement which said Romney "isonly playing into the hands of Chavez by acting like he's ten feet tall."


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A2 China AdvChina moving away from Venezuela

No risk that China will dominate Venezuelan oilmultiple obstacles

Kelly Hearn, Washington Times, March 12, 2012,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/12/venezuelan-oil-a-risky-investment-for-china/#ixzz2Xknr6urh

BUENOS AIRES China has poured billions of dollars into Venezuelas oil sector to expand its claimover the countrys massive oil reserves. But Beijing is getting relatively little for its investments, and

Chinese officials are increasingly frustrated with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, according to

energy analysts and former managers of the state oil company, Petroleum of Venezuela, or PDVSA as itsknown by its Spanish acronym. Mr. Chavez, who is battling a life-threatening recurrence of cancer, said

his goal is to send 1 million barrels of oil a day to China, which has given Venezuela more than $30 billion

in loans and promised billions of dollars more in energy investments by 2016. PDVSA claims to send

410,000 barrels a day to Chinese markets, the bulk of which is used to pay back the loans. Already this

year, PDVSA has announced that Citic Group Corp., Chinas largest state-owned investment company,will acquire a 10 percent stake in the Petropiar heavy-crude project held with PDVSA and U.S.-based

Chevron Corp. It also said that the China Development Bank will spend $4 billion to help boost

production in a joint venture with China National Petroleum Corp., or CNPC. The Chinese bank and the

Venezuelan government also have agreed to renew a $6 billion bilateral investment fund, of which $2

billion will help boost PDVSA production. But Tom ODonnell, an oil analyst who teaches at the NewSchool University and writes an oil-industry blog, the Global Barrel, said the payoffs of Chinas loansamount to a consolation prize. He said Chinas goal is not to get oilfor loans, but to have its ownnational oil companies contract for major oil-production projects in Venezuelas Orinoco Tar Sands, thelargest single known petroleum reserve in the world, with 513 billion barrels of heavy crude oil.

Chinese displeased The Chinese have not gotten the kind of preferential access they want [to the tarsands], and my sources tell methey are extremely unhappy, said Mr. ODonnell. In 2010, CNPCsigned a deal to help Venezuela develop a major Orinoco oil field known as Junin 4, which includes the

construction of a facility to convert heavy oil to a lighter crude that could be shipped to a refinery inGuangdong, China. Although the contract was signed in December 2010, not one barrel of oil has yetbeen produced, much less upgraded, said Gustavo Coronel, a former PDVSA board member. So far,nothing much seems to be happening, except for the arrival of a large group of Chinese staff to the

CNPCs Caracas office, he added, referring to the Venezuelan capital, Caracas. Apart from money,there seems to be little that China can offer Venezuela in the oil industry, he said, adding that aculture gap will make working with China very difficult for Venezuelan oil people, who were mostlytrained in the U.S. Erica Downs, a former energy analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency now withthe Brookings Institution in Washington, said the Junin-4 project could be key to Chinas future inVenezuela. If all that happens, China will be in a position to take substantial volumes of Venezuelanoil, she said. The problem is that the project hasnt gotten off the ground. Ms. Downs said

Venezuela is far from living up to Mr. Chavezs export goals for Beijing and that PDVSAs claims ofsending 410,000 barrels a day do not match Chinese customs data, which show 322,000 barrels per dayof crude and fuel oil imported from Venezuela last year. Although Venezuelas oil exports to Chinahave grown along with the volume of oil-backed loans extended by China Development Bank to Caracas,

the delivered volumes still fall short of Chavezs goal of eventually shipping 1 million barrels per day toChina, she said. Critics of the loans say Mr. Chavez is using the so-called China fund as his personalpiggy bank. The Chinese also seem to be increasingly wary. Internal PDVSA documents released by a

Venezuelan congressman show that the Chinese balked at a $110 billion loan request by Mr. Chavez in


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2010, after PDVSA officials failed to account fully for where the money would go. Problems with

Orinoco The Chinese are now pressing PDVSA to let them list some of their investments in the Orinoco

region on the Hong Kong exchange, a move analysts say would increase transparency and accountability

in PDVSAs spending. Development of the Orinoco oil belt is only slowly taking place because most ofthe companies excluding Chevron, Repsol and China National Offshore Oil Corp. either do not havethe cash or the technology, said Oliver L. Campbell, a former finance coordinator at PDVSA. Unlikelight and sweet crude from Saudi Arabia, oil from Orinoco is tarlike. It is laced with metals and sits

beneath deep jungles. Getting to the oil field means building roads, electrical-power grids and other

major infrastructure. Once the oil is extracted from the ground, it is technically difficult to process.

One of the major problems is that there are very few refineries outside the Gulf of Mexico that canhandle Venezuelan crude, said Jorge Pinon, a former president of Amoco Oil Latin America. Yearsago, U.S. companies such as Shell and Exxon invested heavily in U.S. Gulf Coast refineries capable of

processing heavy crudeafter they saw that the worlds supplies of sweet crude were diminishing, Mr.Pinon said. The Chinese dont have that kind of capacity, he said. But they are looking to get it byinvesting in oil infrastructure off Venezuelas Caribbean coast. CNPC, for example, has extended a lineof credit to Cuba to upgrade a Soviet-built facility jointly owned by Venezuela and Cuba. The company

PetroChina also has taken over Saudi Aramcos lease on a massive oil-storage facility at the strategically

located Statia terminal on the Dutch Caribbean island of St. Eustatius. PetroChina also has tried to buyan oil refinery on the island of Aruba owned by Texas-based Valero Energy Corp., according to news

reports. Luis Giusti, a former president of PDVSA, said the Chinese market becomes even more

relevant for Venezuela in the face of a projected resurgence of domestic production in the United

States, which currently buys about 45 percent of all Venezuelan crude exports. The U.S. EnergyInformation Agency has estimated that the U.S. could reach a production of 20 million barrels per day by

2035, coming from shale oil in North Dakota, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Montana and others, he said in anemail.

Death of Chavez halted Chinese energy investment in Venezuela

Guo 2013(Aibing Guo, March 6, 2013, Chavezs Death Could Dim Chinas Venezuelan Energy

Prospects, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/chavez-s-death-could-dim-china-s-venezuelan-energy-prospects.html)

China, the worlds second-biggest consumer of crude oil, is likely to delay deciding on new investmentsin Venezuelas energy industry to assess any change of political direction after President Hugo

Chavezs death. The death of Chavez could lead to oil supply uncertainties from Venezuela and couldjeopardize Venezuelas oil exports to China in the short term, Gordon Kwan, a Hong Kong-based analystwith Mirae Asset Securities Ltd., said today in an e-mail. His death in the long-term may affect

investment in the industry by China, he said. State-run China Development Bank Corp. has agreed to

lend Venezuela $46.5 billion since 2008, representing half of the loans the country received in the

period, according to a Jan. 13 report from Massachusetts-based Tufts University. About 95 percent of

the debt is backed by sales contracts for crude, the report shows. Chavez, who transformed Venezuelan

politics by channeling record oil revenue to the poor, died at 58 after a struggle with cancer, raising the

risk of unrest and political infighting. Yao Zhongmin, head of China Development Banks supervisory

board, said in Beijing today the Venezuelan loans carried risks, for which the bank has a contingency

plan.He didnt give any details. Shipments to China by Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state producerknown as PDVSA, are up nearly tenfold since 2006 to an average 518,000 barrels a day and will surpass 1

million barrels a day before the end of 2015, Venezuelas Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Sept. 25. Thecountry sells China about 19 percent of its output, based on Ramirezs statement.


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China doesnt need Venezuelan oil- self sufficient

United Press International,June 25, 2013, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/06/25/Chinas-Sinopec-takes-interest-offshore-Angola-oil/UPI-75231372165240/

China Petroleum Corporation said it took a stake in an oil field in Angola that is predicted to hold

more than 500 million barrels of oil reserves. China Petroleum Corp., known also as Sinopec, paid

$1.52 billion to Marathon Oil Corp. to purchase its 10 percent stakes in Block-31. Sinopec increased itsoverall share in the field to 15 percent because of an earlier acquisition from French energy company

Total, officials said. British oil company BP is the lead operator offshore Angola. The energy giant said it

expects to spend as much as $15 billion in Angola by the end of the decade. BP Regional Vice President

Martyn Morris said in April the company was looking forward to long-term results offshore Angola.

China's official Xinhua News Agency said Monday the reserve area acquired by Sinopec holds proven and

probable oil reserves of 533 million barrels. Angola, a member of the Organization of Petroleum

Exporting Countries, ranks second behind Nigeria in terms of oil production in sub-Saharan Africa.

No replacement for US demand--- heavy crude

Turner 2007(Mark Turner, commodities analyst, January 30, 2007, Heavy Crude: Why Venezuela andThe U.S. Need Each Other, Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/article/25485-heavy-crude-why-venezuela-and-the-u-s-need-each-other)

In light of the ongoing bad blood between Venezuela's socialist President Chavez and the USA, a

rather plain fact is overlooked: when it comes down to the economic reality of both countries, the

USA needs Hugo Chavez, and Hugo Chavez needs the USA.This fact is easily passed over when Chavez

makes his frequent headlines attacking the American way. There is little doubt that Chavez's "Socialist

Revolution" is based on cold, hard capitalist cash. The state oil company, Petrleos de Venezuela S.A.

[PdVSA], reported revenues of U$75Bn in 2006, a simply enormous amount of money for a developing

nation with a population of around 28 million. Oil exports supply Venezuela with 80% of foreign

revenues and, as 60% of all oil sales are directly to the USA, the role of the US purchases in fueling

Venezuela's socialist pretentions is clear. However, isn't the USA the same country that Chavez

unendingly attacks as the "Evil Empire"? Would it not be easy enough for the USA to pull the rug from

under Chavez's feet? Stop buying his oil, and Venezuela's GDP would drop by around 40% in one fellswoop; enough to stop any mad leader firmly in its tracks. No more revolution, no more "Bush The

Devil" chants at the United Nations, and South America's oil reserves will be back under a stable

government. Also, what of Chavez and his apparent hypocritical stance? Surely he shouldn't have his

most hated enemy as best customer? If the man has any scruples he would sell his oil to any other

country bar the States. The plain vanilla fact-of-the-matter is that Venezuela has no other market for

the greater part of its oil. Heavy crude is special stuff and is not for the average refinery. The majority

of Venezuela's oil can only be processed in the specialist refineries run by Hovensa(a joint venture

between US refiners Hess Corp and PdVSA) located in the US Virgin islands, amongst other places.

Meanwhile, the USA readily accepts the Venezuelan heavy crude because, without it, the heavy crude

refineries would close. There is no other supplier of this special crude available , so the US would lose

around 11% of its total domestic oil products supply in one fell swoop. The result is of the 2.15mbpd(million barrels per day) Venezuela pumps presently, 1.35mbpd has to go to the USA. Simply put,

without Venezuela, the US refineries will close and the country will have an oil supply crisis. Meanwhile

without the USA, Venezuela will have no market for the lion's share of its crude. Looking more closely

at Venezuelan oil export figures, we see that US sales have dropped from 1.54mbpd to the present

1.35mbpd in the past year. This present level is seen by analysts as the minimum amount that Venezuela

can send to the USA. Apparently Venezuela has already pared their US exposure to the bone and has


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no more room for maneuver; from here it's USA or bust. Like bickering Siamese twins, they might hate

the sight of each other but they are still joined at the hip.

China can invest in oil closer to themIraq provesTom ODonnel (Professor on International Affairs at The New School University) Jun. 4, 2013 Why isChinese production in Iraq booming, and in Venezuela lagging?http://globalbarrel.com/2013/06/04/why-is-chinese-production-in-iraq-booming-and-in-venezuela-

lagging/

Chinese firms are clearly more willing to work with the difficult resource-nationalistic conditions

imposed by the Iraqi and Venezuelan states. However, in many ways Iraqs are more difficult, yetChineseand many othersdo better getting production going in Iraqi than Venezuela. Why?Iraq

mostly limits foreign firms to service contracts, making it difficult for them to book assetsagain hereChinese goals are different from the private majors who need to book reserves. In contrast, Bolivarian

Venezuelas conditions seem much less nationalistic, allowing foreign firms (at least defacto) to book

reserves, with up to 40% participation in oil projects. Although contractually more restrictive, the

Iraqis conceptually simple service contract mileu may actually allow Chinese (and other firms) to

better advance on the ground than in Venezuela with its more complex, partnering relationship.This is not just more complex negotiations and contracting processes; the fact that Venezuela has such

a weakened managerial and technical capacity, ever since the failed oil strike of 2002 against Hugo

Chavez presidency, also makes closely coordinated partnering difficult. In contrast to PDVSAs chaoticmanagerial situation, as soon as foreign firms began returning to Iraq, many remarked at the

competence and humility of Iraqi engineers and managerswho had maintained Iraqi productionthrough years of sanctionsrelative to working with national oil company personnel in most other statesin the Gulf Region.

China is investing in Iraq oil

Steve Hargreaves, June 3, 2013, CNN, http://economy.money.cnn.com/2013/06/03/china-iraq-oil/

A big chunk of Iraq's oil production is going to China, according to a story Monday in the New YorkTimes. That may be a good thing for both

Venezuela Negative Wave 3 - MSDI 2013

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