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Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the...
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Transcript of Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the...
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
1 -29
Intelligent Scenario Development for CAXIntelligent Scenario Development for CAX
Institute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences ee--mailmail: : zlatogorzlatogor@@mathmath..basbas..bgbg
Zlatogor Minchev
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses
This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)Science for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Theoretical Background
1. Е-R (Entity – Relationship) model - Chen, 1976
EmployeesEmployees ProjectsProjectsEmployee on ProjectEmployee on Project
Entities Set
Relations Set
Entities Setm n
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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2. Systems Theory – Bertalanffy, 1950
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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SCIP – Scenario Computer Interface Program
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NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Functional abilities
Main menu
Toolbar
Object’s coordinates
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Main menu
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‘File’
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
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‘Edit’
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NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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‘Window’
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
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Rubberband tool
Objects Relations Sensitivity Diagram
Virtual Grid Selector tool
Toolbar
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Sensitivity Diagram
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
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Objects’ Characteristics Form
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Relations’ Characteristics Form
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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File Format
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Excel Interoperability
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Scenario Example for Crises Management
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Sensitivity Diagram
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Ideas to add Intelligence in SCIP
• Better Relations’ EvaluationBetter Relations’ Evaluation
BA
w (w N) -Relation Weight
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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‘‘w’ w’ Evaluation Evaluation
• Brainstorming
• Multi-criteria Approach
• Fuzzy Sets Implementation
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Multi-criteria Evaluation
• Multi-valued logic – Łukasiewicz, 1920
• Fuzzy Sets – Zadeh, 1965
• Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets – Atanassov, 1983
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Intuitionistic Fuzzy SetsIntuitionistic Fuzzy Sets
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Graphical RepresentationGraphical Representation
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Possible Applications of IFS in SCIPPossible Applications of IFS in SCIP
• w - A
• Interchange among A, A and A in accordance with your information
• Utilization of F, optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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ww - - AA
• Create two scales for A and A that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming
true - A A - false
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
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Interchange among Interchange among AA,, A A and and A A in accordance with your in accordance with your
informationinformation
1. Create two scales for a and b that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming for things that you know, don’t know or are uncertain for you;
2. Substitute a and b with AA,, A A or or A A in accordance with 1.in accordance with 1.
3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next 3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next slide)slide)
true - a b - false
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NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector'
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Utilization of FUtilization of F,, optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing
A (x) = { { xx, , A A ((xx) , 1- ) , 1- A A ((xx) ) | | xx E}; E};
A (x) = { { xx, , A A ((xx) , 1- ) , 1- A A ((xx) ) | | xx E}; E};
FF,, ( (AA) = { ) = { xx, , A A ((xx) + ) + ....AA((xx), ), A A ((xx) + ) + ....AA((xx)) | | xx E}, E}, , , [0, 1], [0, 1], + + 1, 1,
AA – fixed set, – fixed set, EE universe of disclosure, universe of disclosure, x x element from element from E E (see IFS definition).(see IFS definition).
(0,1)
(1,0)(0,0)
fA (x) - possibility
f A (x) - necessity
F,
Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006
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I-SCIP ContributionI-SCIP Contribution
• SfP 981149 Scientific Research
• TACOM SEE 2006 / Protection 2006 Scenario Development
• NATO MSG – 049 Scenario Development
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Conclusions
• Utilization of E-R model, systems theory and holistic thinking;
• Interoperability between different software products;
• Interactive work;
• General view and evaluation of the scenario theatre.
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QUESTIONS ?QUESTIONS ?