Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd)

Head, Strategy and Security Studies

Center for Asia Studies, Chennai

Increasing presence of China in the Indian Ocean Strategy and Security implications for India

Maritime ChallengesLong Coast line 7516 Kms

Far flung Islands on both sides

Nine maritime states

Heavy sea traffic along the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) around the sub-continent

13 Major and 200 minor ports

Unresolved maritime borders with Pakistan and Bangladesh

Troubled waters in the South.

Asymmetric threats

RHQ(East)

RHQ(West)

RHQ(A&N)

MandapamTuticorin

(

Total 2013410 Sq Kms

West Coast

9,73,182 Sq Kms

A&N

5,95,217 Sq Kms

East Coast

4,45,011Sq Kms

Extent of EEZ

Illegal immigration

Smuggling

Poaching

Gun running

Refugees/Stow aways

VNSAs

Safety of lives and property

Marine Pollution/Oil spills

Off shore assets/ Islands/Port security

Security Challenges

Security ChallengesIncreasing maritime and coastal trade

SEZ including in port sector, Increased Private participation in maritime sector

Off shore oil exploration and protection issues

Issues of Governance of sensitive maritime boundaries.

Energy Security

Terrorism and Piracy (Somalian waters)

China Factor??

Triggers and Trends

70,000 ships would transit the

Straits in a few yrs.

Over 43% of piracy attacks

reported in the Malacca Straits

last decade. Another 16% is

reported in the Singapore

Somalia overtaking Malacca

Straits as hot spot for piracy

attacks

Dead/missing crew has

increased threefold since 2002 as

per the IMB.

The cost due to piracy attacks

was estimated to be at 16 billion

per annum.

China India Power Play in the IOR

Triggers for Chinese interest in IOR

Hambanthota

U/C

Seeing Red…

SLOCs

Vital Sea Lines of Communication

China overtook Japan in Feb 2010 as the second largest economySE Asian economies would grow at comparable rates. China export /import up by 30%+ during 2000-2009.China became top export destination of Singapore 7 yrs ago. Indonesia’s FDI receipts in respect of China 67%.

ASIAN TRADE TRENDS

Other Littoral

StatesStraits ofHormuz

PersianGulf

Straits of Malacca

Geo-Strategic/Geo- political

Interests-Influences

South Asia

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Energy Security

Asian Century

Pakistan, West Asia, Iran , Iraq, Oman ,GCC

Nepal, Bhutan,

Myanmar

VolatileMiddle East

Region

Burma,

Bangladesh,

Sri Lanka

SE Asian Countries

Extra-regional

Powers

US, UK,

France,

Canada, Japan,

Australia

Russia ,China ,

CAR

Main trigger ‘ENERGY NEEDS’

Gulf of Aden ChallengeSurge in Piracy off Somalia

Increasing number of

Hijackings at far off distances

from coast

Each Navy despatching ships

to area for protection of

merchantmen

No resolute action for

Coordinated action

Origins over land

Both China and India

despatched naval units and

maintain presence

Hijackings off Somalia

Based on IMB Reports

2010 Projections

140 Bn USD

High estimate

90Bn USD

low estimate

50Bn USD

Official/

Announced

Estimates of Chinese Def Expenditure

Offshore Defence Strategy “Overall, our military strategy is defensive. We attack

only after being attacked. But our operations are offensive.”

“Space or time will not limit our counter offensive.”

“We will not put boundaries on the limits of our offensives.”

“We will wait for the time and conditions that favor our forces when we do initiate offensive operations.”

“We will focus on the opposing force’s weaknesses.”

“We will use our own forces to eliminate the enemy’s forces”

“Offensive operations against the enemy and defensive operations for our own force protection will be conducted simultaneously”

First and second Island chains

Missile Launch Ranges from China

Hit any one, anywhereSuper sonic ASCM-YJ62 on Luyang II DDGs, SSN 22 Sun

burn on Sovremennyy, SSN27B/Sizzler on Kilo class Submarines

By Dec 09 deployed 1050 CSS 6 and 1150 CSS 7(SRBMs)

ASBMs based on CSS 5 MRBMs 1500 kms with manoeuvrable

warhead

ORBAT: Fleet Disposition

North Sea Fleet

East Sea Fleet

South Sea Fleet

PLAN Destroyers:

1 Type 052C (Lanzhou class )1 Type 052B (Guangzhou class)2 Sovremenny class1 Type 051B (NATO codename: Luhai class)2 Type 052 (NATO codename: Luhu class)16 Luda class destroyers (some modernised, others mostly old tech)Total: 23

Frigates:

4Type 053H2G/Jangwei class10 Type 053H3/Jangwei-II class23 Jianghu-class (I+II+III, most old ships)Total: 37

Type 051 C-DDG Luzhou

Red Navy (DDG/FFG)

40 Type 035 Ming class and

older Type 033 Romeo class

diesel submarines

4 Russian-made Kilo class

5 indigenous Type 039 Song

class diesel submarines

5 Type 091 Han class nuclear

attack submarine (SSN)

1 Type 092 Xia class nuclear

missile submarine (SSBN)

Sentinels of the Deep PLAN

Total: 54 subs

Sentinels of the sea

(Type 094-Jin Class)

Hainan Island ?

Type 093, SSN, new nuclear powered attack submarine

Type 094, SSBN, new nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine

Type 039, Song class SSK, ddvanced diesel electric attack submarine

Proj 636, Yuanzheng SSK, imported advanced Russian Kilo diesel electric attack submarine

Yuan Class SSK, new advanced diesel electric attack submarine with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) Capabilities

Potent force in the making

PLA Naval base also completed

Han class sub

052 Class

Special Ops: PLAN

All eyes on Varyag

Could also start commencing indigenous aircraft carrier programme by end of this year (2010)

Plans to train 50 pilots including from Varyag in a four year programme

Blue water navy in the making?Bases in China, Dependency ports in IOR,ASBMs, Modernisation

OTH targeting capabilitiy with Sky Wave and Surface Wave OTH Radars

Satellites for long range surveillance for precision attacks with ASBMs

‘Informatisation’ for Integrated Joint Ops (Concept in 2004)

Up to five new SSBNs JIN 094 class and 095 advanced SSNs, 13 Song class Diesel electric submarines(YJ 82 ASCM) follow on is Yuan class(AIP)- 15 more planned in addition to four existing – All likely to be capable of launching CH-SS_NX13 ASCM on acceptance

Surface combatants with long range HHQ9 LRSAMs on LUYANG(052 C) and SA-N-20 LRSAM (Russian) on LUzhou( 051 C), 6 Jiangkai II(054A) FFG with medium range HHQ-16 VLSAMs

Houbei Type 0222 missile patorl boats for local defence carrying up to eight YJ83 ASCMs

Development of AEW&C based on KJ-200 and KJ 2000(IL76)

Cyber space initiatives-

Concept of ops (CONOPS) India

CBG

Both Sea Control and Denial forces

LND

Amphibious forces

Layered defence using marine police wing, Coast Guard and the Navy

Integrated Coastal defence network

Shore based and integral aviation for surveillance

NCW/NCO

Satellite

Concept of Operations (CONOPS)

Indian NavySurface: Total 36

1 Carrier3 type 155 Rajput (with Brahmos capability)

3 Type 163 Talwars3 Type 16A3 Type 253 Type 25A13 Veer

Submarines :Total 14

10 kilos (upgraded with klub N) can strike surface4 HDW 209

INDIAN NAVY

Submarines: Total 17

2 Vela (Foxtrot) Class4 Shishumer Class(HDW)

10 (Kilo) Sindhogush

1 Akula Class on lease

Air craft carriersViraat

Vikramaditya

ADS U/C

Maritime Capability Perspective

Plan 11th through 13th plan aimed at balanced growth in ship

building, submarine construction and aviation development

About 20 percent of def budget expected for Navy (capital

to revenue about 60:40)

Six Scorpene at MDL first delivery 2012 last in 2017?

Mod Plans include induction of major surface combatants,

surveillance platforms ,ASW/ASV platforms, multi role

helicopters, space based surveillance and satellite

communications, NCW

Maritime Capability Perspective Plan

U/C Aircraft Carrier, 2 HDW submarines, and six

Scorpene. Total 32 ships and subs u/c

Building of ships by non PSUs due to heavy orders

15 yrs indigenous plan

R&D both by DRDO and Indian Industries

Opportunities for Marine Eng Equipment and

Technologies exist for Indian Industry

Vikramaditya by 2012?

Force structuring two CBG, LND forces, well

defined submarine force, shore based LRMR,

ASW,ASV, integral helicopters

Translates to a force consisting of three aircraft

carriers,35 frigates/destroyers, four supprt ships,

about 100 LND units, about 20 subs, amphibious

ships

2 carriers by 2014 and the third to join by 2019?

Seven frigates and four Destroyers approved to be

built by DPSUs by 2021 @ Rs 45,000 crores

Present level is of 130 ships plans to get it up to 160

Viraat

Vikramaditya

Many Questions

Still ?

Sindhuvijay

Advanced Technology Vehicle -Arihant

Shivalik Stealth ships

Vindhyagiri

INS Shishumar

Talwar

Charlie Class sub-Chakra

Tsunami sensitive areas in IOR

China’s IOR Ambitions Energy/SLOC protection

“Warm water Ports” referred to also as dependency ports in IOR for future (Gwadar, Hambanthota, Myanmar)

Containment of India

Protection of own ships from Piracy-Somalia/Gulf of Aden

Enablement of operation Carrier Task Force

On the Anvil

Economic Developments Post war - Hong Kong-based conglomerate

Huichen Investment Holdings Ltd. investing $28 million to develop SEZ located in Mirigama, 55 km (34 miles) from Colombo port and 40 km from the international airport.

Hambantota Port Development Project (worth US$1 billion)

Norochcholai Coal Power Plant Project (worth US$855 million)

Colombo-Katunayake Expressway (worth US$248.2 million)

2006 to 2008, Chinese aid to Sri Lanka grew fivefold, replacing Japan as Sri Lanka ’s largest donor.

Interest free loans, subsidised loans

From the Sea…

..Over land..

Colombo Kattunayake Highway and many investments in projects and infrastructure

Hambanthota..

Three times the size of Colombo

Service and Industrial Port

12 berths bunkering and refueling

LNG refinery

Aviation fuel storage

Dry docks

6000 direct and 50,000 indirect job creation

Artist’s view of Hambanthota

‘Over 200 ships sail this route [daily]

and we want to attract them… Our vision is to consolidate the position of Sri Lanka as the

premier maritime logistic centre of the Asian region.’

Dr. Priyath Bandu Wickrama Chairman

Sri Lanka Port Authority

Shape of things to come….

From the Air……

Shape of things to come

.

Some figures about the airport coming up near HambanthotaUS$210mn

Extent of land: 2,000 hectares in total. Initial construction covers an extent of 800 hectares.Aerodrome design: Designed to meet the ICAO specification for code 4F.Runway Length: 3,500 metres in length with a width of 75 metres.Taxiways: 60 metre long taxiway from the runway centre line to the edge of the apron. Apron: 10 parking positions initially with the total being 80.Air Field Capacity: Annual Service Volume of the aerodrome at short and medium/long term planning horizons will be 30,000 and 60,000 movements respectively.Terminal and related buildings: Proposed 10,000 square metres to accommodate 800 peak hours and 100 domestic passengers both ways

Proposed Air Port at Hambanthota

What it portends for future

Direct flights from China

Strategic Air Lift Capability

Support to PLA Navy on IOR missions

Economic Development

Air and Sea bridge to IOR (Port +Air port)

Dual Use in future

Hambanthota bids for hosting 2018 CWG

Factoring Sri Lanka in China’s equations

With the geo strategic importance of Sri Lanka it would assume greater importance for global players post LTTE defeat

Many developments and investments in ports/Airports/transport sector particularly by China increases China’s leverage

Chinese overtures in the neighbourhood is discomforting to India

What is today an economic investment of huge proportions is expected to pay dividends for investors particularly China in increasing its IOR ambitions and also provides leverages for future use both for commercial and military use

India’s Maritime Posturing of concern to

China

Cooperative arrangements with maritime forces of Japan,Vietnam,US,UK,France,

Australia,Singapore,Thailand etc.,

Maldives security pact

Regional Initiatives- SAARC,ARF, MILAN, Bilateral agreements

Indian Ocean Region Symposium

Launch of INS Arihant –ATV

Modernisation of India’s maritime assets

Infrastructure improvements

Invitation for engagement/intervention

Areas of concern: India

Strategic Location

Regional power dynamics

Economic opportunity

Technological prowess

Democracy

Countervailing force to China’s adventures in the area

Historical baggage

Nuclear power

Extra regional powers interests/role

China –Energy, Spheres of influence (SOP) to counter India's influence

France- Strategic presence in IOR, bases in Diego Suareg +Reunion Island

Japan- Increased interest in IOR, Greater interaction with the maritime forces of India (CG) for protection of mercantile marine traffic from piracy. Benign support?

US- Diego Garcia, Mobile fleets in areas around the world (CTF 150 and 151 ) for preemption and energy security. Global policing

UK - Play supporting role for US initiatives while retaining space for its own initiatives,

Norway –Peace brokering Russia - Slowly trying to regain lost space

Conclusion

….cont’d

China’s remote presence already visible around India

Areas of interest in IOR would continue to be under satellite surveillance and other ISR means

China’s virtual presence felt alreay on many Govt and private internet sites

China’s actual presence due to continuous deployment of its ships in Gulf of Aden and by way of its work force in projects around IOR countries

Land divides and Oceans unite nations.From being a neighbour sharing land borders China is now a maritime neighbour as well connected through narrow Malacca straits

Conclusion

IOR would continue to hold interest for West and the rest including China

The 21st century would witness acute competition between the two Asian neighbours impacting security and safety in IOR

Force level augmentation, modernisation and greater power play inevitable in the region

Conflict for supremacy in IOR and cooperation (anti piracy/counter terrorism) where convenient would continue

India would continue to enjoy the geo strategic advantage in the short term

Cooperative initiatives, collaborative efforts are inescapable for taking on the scourge of piracy and maritime terrorism.

Options for India Engaging China’s neighbours and those weary

of China’s military ambitions -Kautilya’s Arthashastra prescriptions

Strengthening and operationalising second strike capability

Greater use of space for surveillance Cyber warfare

Sustained support for Modernisation

Engaging immediate neighbourhood

Overcoming vacuum in political leadership

Keeping counters in place and all options open

Strengthening A&N even more-

Thank You