VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05,...
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05, 2014 Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst
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Transcript of VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05,...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES
VANDANA RAO, Ph.D.Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs
November 05, 2014Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst
Granted, we don’t have this……
Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India
Or this………
But we are ALREADY seeing more of this….
July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour
Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge
and this…….
and this…..
Source: Boston Globe
Plum Island
And on the other hand…..………….this too!
So what is really going on?
GLOBAL SCALE
− Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels
unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs
− CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily
from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions
− Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification
Atmospheric CO2
Observed Global Atmospheric Changes
Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Predicted Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Global Sea Level Rise (SLR)
− Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).
− Between 1901-2010 SLR rose by 0.19m
Source: Draft National Climate Assessment
Ice & Snow Cover
Over last 2 decades, − Greenland & Antarctic
ice sheets losing mass
− Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide
− Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
REGIONAL SCALE
Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html
Observed Precipitation
Observed Precipitation
Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012
Observed Annual total precipitation changes for 1901-2012 compared to 1901-1960
Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014
Annual Total Heavy Downpours
Precipitation Flooding
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012
Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012
Predicted Precipitation
Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data
More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour
Design Storm Comparison County
TP-40 Rainfall (1930-1960)
(inches)
NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell(1936-2008)
(inches)
PercentChange
NOAA - Atlas14 draft(1849 - 2013)
Barnstable 7.1 8.2 16 %
Between 7.0 – 8.51
Berkshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Bristol 7.0 8.6 22 % Dukes 7.2 8.3 15 % Essex 6.4 8.8 38 % Franklin 6.2 7.4 19 % Hampden 6.5 8.0 23 % Hampshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Middlesex 6.4 8.5 33 % Plymouth 6.9 8.7 26 % Worcester 6.4 8.2 29 %
More Water……YAAAYY!!!
.
.
..
So, What’s the problem??
The Problem………….
Pre-DevelopmentImpacts from Typical
Development
• High Evapo-Transpiration
• Decreased recharge because of
– less snowpack
– less snow melt
– high intensity storm events
• Short term droughts
The Problem………….
Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping
Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought)
In addition………
Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems
2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water
3: Increased Baseflow
4: Saltwater Intrusion
1. Higher Sea Level
and………
4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR
Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc.
and………
“Sandy was a whole other story.”Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division
In other words…….
Changing Water Regime impacts our
- AQUATIC RESOURCES- INFRASTRUCTURE
- BUILT ENVIRONMENT
So how is Massachusetts addressing its
long-termWater Sustainability?
Protect Existing Supplies
Ensure Recharge
Use Water Wisely
Smart Growth
Green Infrastructur
e
Aquifer Land Purchase
State Funding - EEA, CZM
Permit ConditionsMA Water
Conservation Standards
Stormwater, Low Impact
Development
Allocate Water Wisely
Permit Mitigation
State Funding & Technical Assistance
