Van Nuys Report (28 Aug 2003)

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    PEER Performance-Based EarthquakeEngineering Methodology:

    Structural and Architectural Aspects

    Van uys !est"ed #ommittee

    Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research #enter

    $ni%ersity of #alifornia& Berkeley

    o%em"er '& ())(

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    Author *nstructions

    Editing instructions

    1. Leave track changes on.

    2. Paste your text in your section. Follow the PEER Style Guie.

    !. Rena"e the #ile $your last na"e% &an 'uys Re(ort $)ay *onth +ear%.oc, an e"ail it

    to "e -Porter at keith(/caltech.eu, with cc to 0el"ut -krawinkler/stan#or.eu.

    . # you change your text a#ter sening it to "e, acce(t all your (revious eits in 3rack

    4hanges, an re(eat the (rocess.

    Schedule

    Section Responsible Due Inserted

    1. ntrouction1.1 5ackgroun Porter 617682 7616821.2 9:;ectives Porter 617682 7616821.! Sco(e Porter 617682 761682

    2. 4o"(onents to :e 3este2.1 *ethoology nalysis

    !.1 4onventional #ree?#iel ha=ar analysis So"erville 617682 617682!.2 &aria:ility in the Groun *otion@ So"erville 617682 617682!.! Free?#iel ha=ar @ i"(rove *s 4ornell 0nalytical *oels Lowes 18682?68!1861768!

    . Preiction o# E)Ps *irana 18682B61768

    !

    !617682

    .7 Preiction o# 4olla(se Pro:a:ility@ 4ornell

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    7.1 )*6E)P an )&6)* Relationshi(s@ *irana, Lowes D617682 !6176827.2 >((lication o# Loss an )ownti"e@ *irana D68168!

    C. Pro(agation o# ncertainties 4ornell !186!1682. Relation to 4urrent Engineering >((roaches 0eint=

    .1 4urrent Practice 0eint= 7682?682

    .2 >ssess"ent o# PEER *ethoology 0eint= 18682?12682D. Societal ssues an "(act $Eli"inate%B. Re#erences >ll>. 5uiling )escri(tion

    >.1 Su""ary )escri(tion Porter 617682 !61D682>.2 Structural Pro(erties Porter 617682 !61D682>.! Past Earthuake )a"age Porter 617682 !61D682>. 9ccu(ancy Shoa# D6!168!>. 7 Re#erences Porter 617682 !61D682

    !

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    #ontents1 ntrouction..................................................................................................................B

    1.1 5ackgroun..........................................................................................................B1.2 9:;ectives..........................................................................................................181.! Sco(e..................................................................................................................11

    2 *ethoology 4o"(onents to :e 3este....................................................................12.1 4ase S(eci#ic Su""ary o# *ethoology..........................................................1

    ! 0a=ar >nalysis.........................................................................................................17!.1 4onventional Free?Fiel 0a=ar >nalysis an Groun *otion Selection........17

    !.1.1 Seis"ic 0a=ar..............................................................................................17

    !.1.2 ni#or" 0a=ar S(ectra................................................................................17!.1.! )eaggregation o# the 0a=ar.........................................................................1!.1. Recor Selection............................................................................................1

    !.2 &aria:ility in the Groun *otion Recorings...................................................28!.2.1 E(iste"ic ncertainty in Pro:a:ilistic Seis"ic 0a=ar >nalysis.................27

    !.! Free?Fiel 0a=ar >nalysis an Recor Selection 5ase on "(rove *s....2!.!.1 5rie# General )iscussion o# *Hs an their issues........................................2!.!.2 Process se :y * Stuy Grou( to Evaluate an Select "(rove *s.....2!.!.! 4aniate *s #or &' test:e. 5rie# ;usti#ication #or each...........................2!.!. Results o# * stuies #or the &' test:e.......................................................2!.!.7 0a=ar >nalysis o# i"(rove *-Hs.............................................................2

    !. E##ects o# Site Soil Pro#ile on *s an Groun *otions..................................2D Preiction o# E)Ps....................................................................................................!1

    .1 >nalytical *oeling o# Founation...................................................................!1.2 >nalytical *oeling o# Founation?Structure Syste"......................................!

    .2.1 *oeling 9:;ectives......................................................................................!.2.2 3y(es o# *oels E"(loye...........................................................................!7.2.! *oel &eri#ication.........................................................................................!7.2. Results............................................................................................................!7

    .! &aliation o# >nalytical *oels........................................................................!.!.1 Ex(eri"ental )ata se in *oel )evelo("ent an &aliation..................!.!.2 &aliation Protocol........................................................................................!

    .!.! 3he E)P to )* Relationshi(........................................................................!.!. Structural Per#or"ance )ata 5ase.................................................................!

    . Preiction o# E)Ps #or )a"age >ssess"ent.....................................................!B..1 General iscussion o# the role o# E)PHs in the "ethoology........................!B..2 Selection o# E)P &ector................................................................................!B..! Results o# E)P versus *..............................................................................2.. E)P 0a=ar 4urves.......................................................................................2..7 E(iste"ic ncertainty....................................................................................2

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    ..C Preiction :y *eans o# Si"(li#ie >((roaches............................................2.7 Preiction o# Pro:a:ility o# 4olla(se an o# 4asualties....................................2

    .7.1 )iscussion o# 4olla(se Esti"ation an its Role in *etho..........................!.7.2 *oels #or Glo:al an Local 4olla(se..........................................................!.7.! Results o# 4olla(se Preictions.....................................................................!

    .7. Esti"ation o# 4asualties................................................................................!.7.7 E(iste"ic ncertainties.................................................................................!.7.C Preiction :y *eans o# Si"(li#ie >((roaches............................................!

    7 Preiction o# Losses...................................................................................................7.1 )*6E)P an )&6)* Relationshi(s................................................................

    7.1.1 Structural Ele"ents........................................................................................7.1.2 'onstructural Ele"ents.................................................................................7

    7.2 >((lication o# Loss Esti"ation *ethoology...................................................C Pro(agation o# ncertainties #ro" * to )&............................................................78 Relation to Presently >cce(te Engineering >((roaches.........................................71

    .1 4urrent Practice o# Engineering Evaluation......................................................71

    .1.1 *ethoologies an 3ools 4urrently in se...................................................71.1.2 4o""unicating Per#or"ance to an 9wner...................................................71.1.! FE*> !7C Engineering >ssess"ent o# &an 'uys 3est:e...........................71

    .2 > FE*> !7C retro#it esign..............................................................................71.! Engineering >ssess"ent o# the PEER P5EE *ethoology..............................72

    .!.1 4o"(arison o# FE*> !7C an PEER *ethoologies..................................72.!.2 "(le"entation o# the PEER *ethoology in Engineering Practice............72

    D Societal ssues an "(act.........................................................................................7!D.1 >ssess"ent o# the P5EE Process......................................................................7!D.2 4o""entary on Societal "(lications...............................................................7!

    B Re#erences..................................................................................................................7718 Glossary.................................................................................................................7C1 ntrouction..................................................................................................................D

    1.1 5ackgroun..........................................................................................................D1.2 9:;ectives............................................................................................................B1.! Sco(e..................................................................................................................18

    2 *ethoology 4o"(onents to :e 3este....................................................................12.1 4ase S(eci#ic Su""ary o# *ethoology..........................................................1

    ! 0a=ar >nalysis.........................................................................................................17!.1 4onventional Free?Fiel 0a=ar >nalysis an Groun *otion Selection........17

    !.1.1 Seis"ic 0a=ar..............................................................................................17!.1.2 ni#or" 0a=ar S(ectra................................................................................17!.1.! )eaggregation o# the 0a=ar.........................................................................1!.1. Recor Selection............................................................................................1

    !.2 &aria:ility in the Groun *otion Recorings...................................................28!.2.1 E(iste"ic ncertainty in Pro:a:ilistic Seis"ic 0a=ar >nalysis.................27

    !.! Free?Fiel 0a=ar >nalysis an Recor Selection 5ase on "(rove *s....2!.!.1 5rie# General )iscussion o# *Hs an their issues........................................2!.!.2 Process se :y * Stuy Grou( to Evaluate an Select "(rove *s.....2!.!.! 4aniate *s #or &' test:e. 5rie# ;usti#ication #or each...........................2

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    !.!. Results o# * stuies #or the &' test:e.......................................................2!.!.7 0a=ar >nalysis o# i"(rove *-Hs.............................................................2

    !. E##ects o# Site Soil Pro#ile on *s an Groun *otions..................................2D Preiction o# E)Ps....................................................................................................!8

    .1 >nalytical *oeling o# Founation...................................................................!8

    .2 >nalytical *oeling o# Founation?Structure Syste"......................................!!.2.1 *oeling 9:;ectives......................................................................................!!.2.2 3y(es o# *oels E"(loye...........................................................................!!.2.! *oel &eri#ication.........................................................................................!.2. Results............................................................................................................!

    .! &aliation o# >nalytical *oels........................................................................!C.!.1 Ex(eri"ental )ata se in *oel )evelo("ent an &aliation..................!C.!.2 &aliation Protocol........................................................................................!C.!.! 3he E)P to )* Relationshi(........................................................................!C.!. Structural Per#or"ance )ata 5ase.................................................................!C

    . Preiction o# E)Ps #or )a"age >ssess"ent.....................................................!D

    ..1 General iscussion o# the role o# E)PHs in the "ethoology........................!D..2 Selection o# E)P &ector................................................................................!D..! Results o# E)P versus *..............................................................................1.. E)P 0a=ar 4urves....................................................................................... 1..7 E(iste"ic ncertainty................................................................................... 1..C Preiction :y *eans o# Si"(li#ie >((roaches............................................1

    .7 Preiction o# Pro:a:ility o# 4olla(se an o# 4asualties....................................1.7.1 )iscussion o# 4olla(se Esti"ation an its Role in *etho..........................2.7.2 *oels #or Glo:al an Local 4olla(se..........................................................2.7.! Results o# 4olla(se Preictions.....................................................................2.7. Esti"ation o# 4asualties................................................................................2.7.7 E(iste"ic ncertainties................................................................................. 2.7.C Preiction :y *eans o# Si"(li#ie >((roaches............................................2

    7 Preiction o# Losses...................................................................................................!7.1 )*6E)P an )&6)* Relationshi(s................................................................ !

    7.1.1 Structural Ele"ents........................................................................................!7.1.2 'onstructural Ele"ents.................................................................................

    7.2 >((lication o# Loss -an )ownti"e Esti"ation *ethoology.......................CC Pro(agation o# ncertainties #ro" * to )&............................................................ B Relation to Presently >cce(te Engineering >((roaches.........................................78

    .1 4urrent Practice o# Engineering Evaluation......................................................78.1.1 *ethoologies an 3ools 4urrently in se...................................................78.1.2 4o""unicating Per#or"ance to an 9wner...................................................78.1.! FE*> !7C Engineering >ssess"ent o# &an 'uys 3est:e...........................78

    .2 Engineering >ssess"ent o# the PEER P5EE *ethoology..............................78.2.1 4o"(arison o# FE*> !7C an PEER *ethoologies..................................71.2.2 "(le"entation o# the PEER *ethoology in Engineering Practice............71

    D Societal ssues an "(act.........................................................................................72D.1 >ssess"ent o# the P5EE Process......................................................................72D.2 4o""entary on Societal "(lications...............................................................72

    C

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    B Re#erences..................................................................................................................718 Glossary.................................................................................................................77

    >((enix >. Pre?'orthrige 5uiling 4onition>.1 Su""ary )escri(tion

    >.2 Structural Pro(erties>.! Past Earthuake )a"age>. Re#erences

    >((enix 5. Retro#it )esign>((enix 4. )esign :y PEER *ethoology

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    *nde+ of ,iguresFig. 1. 9verview o# PEER analysis "ethoology........................................................................1!Fig. 2. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the longituinal

    an transverse co"(onents #or each o# three groun?"otion levels.....................................22Fig. !. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the vertical

    co"(onent #or each o# three groun "otion levels...............................................................2!Fig. . 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the ten

    scale recorings #or the 78I in 78 year groun "otion level.............................................2Fig. 7. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the ten

    scale recorings #or the 18I in 78 year groun "otion level.............................................27

    Fig. C. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the tenscale recorings #or the 2I in 78 year groun "otion level...............................................2C

    Fig. 7. Foundation plan and primary types of pile-pile-cap combinations. ............................!!Fig. 8. Interior and exterior pile-cap details..............................................................................!Fig. . !oring logs "reproduced from #eoSystems $%&.........................................................!Fig. 18. Location o# the e"onstration :uilingJ the K sy":ol a:ove the 87 shiel..........7BFig. 11. First #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.........................C1Fig. 12. Secon #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.....................C2Fig. 1!. 3y(ical hotel suite #loor (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7........................C!Fig. 1. Founation an colu"n (lan. 3he (lan is regular, with three :ays in the transverse

    irection, eight in the longituinal irection. 41 through 4!C re#ers to colu"n nu":ers

    -esignerHs notation..............................................................................................................CFig. 17. South #ra"e elevation, o"itting stair tower at west en.................................................C7Fig. 1C. Floor :ea" an #loor s(anrel :ea" (lans.....................................................................CFig. 1. >rrange"ent o# colu"n steel -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7........................CDFig. 1D. 3est:e :uiling -star relative to 1B1 an 1BB earthuakes -EER, 1BB................2Fig. 1B. nstru"ent locations in 1B1 San Fernano earthuake..................................................!Fig. 28. S(ectral acceleration, 1B1 groun?#loor "otions, longit. -le#t an transverse -right..!Fig. 21. nstru"ent locations a#ter 1BD8.......................................................................................7Fig. 22. S(ectral acceleration o# groun?#loor "otions, 1BB longit. -le#t an transverse -right.

    ...............................................................................................................................................Fig. 2!. Structural a"age in 1BB 'orthrige earthuake, south #ra"e -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB B

    Fig. 2. Structural a"age in 1BB 'orthrige earthuake, north #ra"e -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB.D8Fig. 27. Shearwalls ae to south -le#t an north #ra"es -right a#ter the 1BB 'orthrige

    earthuake. -Le#tJ lines >?!, an D #ro" near to #ar. RightJ lines )?D, , 7, an !...........D8Fig. 1. 9verview o# PEER "ethoology......................................................................................11Fig. 2. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the longituinal

    an transverse co"(onents #or each o# three groun?"otion levels.....................................21Fig. !. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the vertical

    co"(onent #or each o# three groun "otion levels...............................................................22

    D

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    Fig. . 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the tenscale recorings #or the 78I in 78 year groun "otion level.............................................2!

    Fig. 7. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the tenscale recorings #or the 18I in 78 year groun "otion level.............................................2

    Fig. C. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the ten

    scale recorings #or the 2I in 78 year groun "otion level...............................................27Fig. . Location o# the e"onstration :uiling............................................................................77Fig. D. First #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7...........................7Fig. B. Secon #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.......................7DFig. 18. 3y(ical hotel suite #loor (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7........................7BFig. 11. Founation an colu"n (lan. 3he (lan is regular, with three :ays in the transverse

    irection, eight in the longituinal irection. 41 through 4!C re#ers to colu"n nu":ers-esignerHs notation..............................................................................................................C1

    Fig. 12. South #ra"e elevation, o"itting stair tower at west en.................................................C2Fig. 1!. Floor :ea" an #loor s(anrel :ea" (lans.....................................................................C!Fig. 1. >rrange"ent o# colu"n steel -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7........................C

    Fig. 17. 3est:e :uiling -star relative to 1B1 an 1BB earthuakes -EER, 1BB................CBFig. 1C. nstru"ent locations in 1B1 San Fernano earthuake..................................................8Fig. 1. S(ectral acceleration, 1B1 groun?#loor "otions, longit. -le#t an transverse -right..8Fig. 1D. nstru"ent locations a#ter 1BD8.......................................................................................2Fig. 1B. S(ectral acceleration o# groun?#loor "otions, 1BB longit. -le#t an transverse -right.

    ...............................................................................................................................................Fig. 28. Structural a"age in 1BB 'orthrige earthuake, south #ra"e -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB CFig. 21. Structural a"age in 1BB 'orthrige earthuake, north #ra"e -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB.Fig. 22. Shearwalls ae to south -le#t an north #ra"es -right a#ter the 1BB 'orthrige

    earthuake. -Le#tJ lines >?!, an D #ro" near to #ar. RightJ lines )?D, , 7, an !...........

    B

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    *nde+ of !a"les3a:le 1. Eual?0a=ar Res(onse S(ectra #or the &an 'uys 5uiling..........................................13a:le 2. )eaggregation o# uni#or" ha=ar s(ectra, 7I a"(ing, soil, east -transverse Saat 1

    secon, at the &an 'uys :uiling...........................................................................................1D3a:le !. 3i"e histories re(resenting 78I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling....1B3a:le . 3i"e histories re(resenting 18I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling....283a:le 7. 3i"e histories re(resenting 2I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys :uiling.......28'able (. )reliminary recommendations for elastic *ertical+ hori,ontal and rotational spring

    stiffnesses..............................................................................................................................!73a:le . 4olu"n rein#orce"ent scheule.....................................................................................CB

    3a:le D. S(anrel :ea" rein#orce"ent scheule, #loors ! through ...........................................83a:le B. Roo# an secon?#loor s(anrel :ea" rein#orce"ent scheule......................................13a:le 18. >((roxi"ate #una"ental :uiling (erios -sla", 1BBC...........................................3a:le 11. Events causing strong "otion -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB 4S*P, 1BB...........................C3a:le 12. Recore (eak is(lace"ents an story ri#t ratios.....................................................D3a:le 1. Eual?0a=ar Res(onse S(ectra #or the &an 'uys 5uiling..........................................1C3a:le 2. )eaggregation o# uni#or" ha=ar s(ectra, 7I a"(ing, soil, east -transverse Saat 1

    secon, at the &an 'uys :uiling...........................................................................................13a:le !. 3i"e histories re(resenting 78I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling....1D3a:le . 3i"e histories re(resenting 18I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling....1B3a:le 7. 3i"e histories re(resenting 2I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys :uiling.......1B

    3a:le C. 4olu"n rein#orce"ent scheule.....................................................................................C73a:le . S(anrel :ea" rein#orce"ent scheule, #loors ! through ...........................................CC3a:le D. Roo# an secon?#loor s(anrel :ea" rein#orce"ent scheule...................................... C3a:le B. >((roxi"ate #una"ental :uiling (erios -sla", 1BBC.............................................13a:le 18. Events causing strong "otion -3ri#unac et al., 1BBB 4S*P, 1BB...........................!3a:le 11. Recore (eak is(lace"ents an story ri#t ratios......................................................7

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    *ntroduction Porter

    $.$ !/#R012D

    Three structural design paradigms. Structural esign co"(rises the selection o#

    structural, nonstructural, an geotechnical syste"s, an their "aterials an con#iguration, with

    the goal o# constructing a :uiling, :rige, or other structure that will :e sa#e an econo"ical

    uner #oreseea:le circu"stances. 0istorically, structural engineers have use allowa:le?stress

    esign ->S) an loa?an?resistance?#actor esign -LRF), which #ocus on iniviual

    structural ele"ents an connections, an seek to ensure that none will ex(erience loas or

    e#or"ation greater than it is ca(a:le o# withstaning. >n e"erging a((roach, calle

    (er#or"ance?:ase esign -P5), seeks to ensure that a esigne #acility as a whole will

    (er#or" in so"e (reicta:le way, in ter"s o# sa#ety an #unctionality. Seis"ic as(ects o# P5)

    are re#erre to as (er#or"ance?:ase earthuake engineering -P5EE. P5EE there#ore consiers

    the seis"ic relia:ility o# the ele"ents an connections, :ut also irectly aresses the #acilityMsearthuake (er#or"ance #ro" the view(oint o# #acility users, owners, an other stakeholers.

    SEAOC, FEMA, and ASCE PBEE efforts. 3he PEER 4enter is not alone in evelo(ing

    P5EE. 3he Structural Engineers >ssociation o# 4ali#ornia -SE>94 create an early sketch o#

    the o:;ectives an "ethoologies o# P5EE, in its &ision 2888 ocu"ent -9##ice o# E"ergency

    Services, 1BB7 an 4once(tual Fra"ework #or Per#or"ance?5ase Seis"ic )esign -Structural

    Engineers >ssociation o# 4ali#ornia, 1BBB. SE>94Hs a((roach aresses (er#or"ance in ter"s

    o# a continuu" #ro" o(era:ility, to li#e sa#ety, to resistance to colla(se, uner #our iscrete levels

    o# seis"ic excitation. 3he Feeral E"ergency *anage"ent >gency -FE*> an the >"erican

    Society o# 4ivil Engineers ->S4E :uil u(on these ocu"ents in their (restanar,

    >S4E6FE*> !7C -Feeral E"ergency *anage"ent >gency, 2888, which ex(resses

    (er#or"ance in #our iscrete levels though on "uch the sa"e ter"s at #our slightly i##erent

    ha=ar levels.

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    PEERs PBEE effort. PEER is (roucing an analysis "ethoology an a esign

    "ethoology. -)esign enco"(asses the selection o# syste"s, "aterials, an co"(onents, along

    with the esti"ation o# (er#or"ance. 3he co":ine "ethoology will aress seis"ic

    (er#or"ance in ter"s o# a"age?re(air cost an loss?o#?use uration, as well as o(era:ility, li#e?

    sa#ety, an colla(se (otential. 3he "ethoology will etail how one can esti"ate #uture

    (er#or"ance in (ro:a:ilistic ter"s, such as via (ro:a:ility istri:utions on re(air costs an loss?

    o#?use uration on an annuali=e or li#eti"e :asis as well as at iscrete ha=ar levels.

    3hus, the PEER "ethoology will :e the #irst P5EE a((roach to (rovie econo"ic an

    (ro:a:ilistic in#or"ation. 9ne i"(ortant i"(lication o# this innovation is that it will :e the #irst

    P5EE "ethoology to in#or" the single "ost?co""on seis"ic evaluation (er#or"e in the

    seis"ic regions o# the nite StatesJ the esti"ation o# (ro:a:le "axi"u" loss -P*L. PEERHs

    P5EE "ethoology will i"(rove u(on this #airly si"(listic "etric o# seis"ic risk, to (rovie

    "ore in#or"ation a:out the ownstrea" :ene#its :oth o# seis"ic retro#it #or existing :uilings,

    an o# new esign to higher (er#or"ance levels.

    $.3 0!4E'I5ES

    Purpose of the test!ed pro"ect. PEERMs analysis "ethoology is currently in

    evelo("ent. 3he test:e (ro;ect seeks to synthesi=e is(arate university research (roucts o#

    PEERMs #irst #ive years into a coherent "ethoology an to e"onstrate an exercise that

    "ethoology on six real #acilitiesJ two :uilings -o# which this re(ort treats one, two :riges, a

    ca"(us o# :uilings, an a network o# highway :riges.

    Engineering (ractitioners involve in the test:e (ro;ect co"(are the new PEER

    "ethoology with current (ractice, to ienti#y strengths an evelo("ent nees relative to other

    a((roaches. 3his co"(arison will hel( to guie our research an ensure that it "eets (ractitioner

    ex(ectations an ca(a:ilities, an that the PEER "ethoology contri:utes "aterially to the value

    (ractitioners can o##er #acility stakeholers.

    Focus for the #an $u%s test!ed. PEER researchers working on the &an 'uys test:e are

    #ocusing on issues relevant to oler co""ercial :uilings #or which the (ri"ary ha=ar is

    seis"ic shaking. -3his #acility is :elieve to #ace little risk o# groun #ailure. n aition to

    aiing in the evelo("ent o# the PEER "ethoology, this stuy e"onstrates how a (ractitioner

    woul esti"ate structural an architectural a"age, colla(se (otential, re(air cost, an re(air

    12

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    uration #or such a #acility. Later stuy "ay exa"ine the :uiling uner what?i# -retro#itte

    conitions, using it to test the esira:ility o# various retro#it techniues. Ne "ay also use this

    #acility to illustrate how a (ractitioner woul (er#or" a new esign o# a #acility with the sa"e

    architectural (rogra" an con#iguration.

    9ther as(ects o# the PEER analysis "ethoology, such as esti"ating contents a"age

    an (ost?earthuake o(era:ility o# newer structures, are the #ocus o# the 4 Science 5uiling

    test:e. 3he intereste reaer is re#erre to 4 Science 5uiling 3est:e 4o""ittee -in

    (rogress.

    $.6 S0)E

    O&er&ie'. 3he (er#or"ance evaluation (resente here is (er#or"e #or a single, real

    #acility, consiering regional #aults an their seis"icity, site soils, the #ounation an structural

    syste", the architectural #eatures o# the #acility, an -(ossi:ly its "echanical, electrical, an

    (lu":ing -*EP co"(onents as well. 3he stuy evaluates the seis"ic ha=ar -incluing

    creation o# a set o# groun?"otion ti"e histories at three ha=ar levels, engineering e"an

    -e#or"ations, accelerations, an "e":er #orces, structural an nonstructural a"age, (otential

    #or local an glo:al colla(se, re(air costs, an re(air urations. Ne also treat how these ecision

    varia:les are use in real?worl #inancial analysis an ecision?"aking. Ne ex(licitly aress

    origins an (ro(agation o# uncertainty at each ste( o# the analysis.

    3he PEER analysis "ethoology is su""ari=e in Fig. 1. >s shown in the #igure, the

    "ethoology e":oies #our stagesJ ha=ar analysis -the stuy o# how #reuently earthuakes

    occur an how strongly they a##ect a site, structural analysis -here, the stuy o# how earthuake

    "otion inuces #orces an e#or"ations in the structure, a"age analysis -the relationshi(

    :etween structural res(onse an (hysical a"age, an loss analysis -the relationshi( :etween

    a"age an the #inal "easures o# (er#or"ance. 3he next section su""ari=es the as(ects o# this

    "ethoology that are exa"ine within the (resent stuy.

    1!

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    g $ I M | O , D %

    g $ I M %

    I M J i n t e n s i t y

    " e a s u r e

    O , D S e l e c t

    O , D

    0 a = a r a n a l y s i s S t r u c t M l a n a l y s i s

    p $ E D P | I M %

    p $ E D P %

    E D P J e n g i n e e r i n g

    e " a n ( a r a " .

    O J L o c a t i o n

    D J ) e s i g n

    ) a " a g e a n a l y s i s

    p $ D M | E D P %

    p $ D M %

    D M J a " a g e

    " e a s u r e

    L o s s a n a l y s i s

    p $ D V | D M %

    p $ D V %

    D V J e c i s i o n

    v a r i a : l e

    ) e c i s i o n ?

    " a k i n g

    F a c i l i t y

    i n # o

    Fig. 1. 9verview o# PEER analysis "ethoology.

    (ntensit% measures. Seis"ic intensity will :e "easure initially in ter"s o# a"(e

    elastic s(ectral acceleration res(onse at the :uilingHs s"all?a"(litue #una"ental (erio -Sa.PEER researchers will also test alternative intensity "easures -*. 9ur o:;ective is to ienti#y

    an * that is "ore strongly correlate with (er#or"ance, an whose occurrence rates can :e

    reaily calculate. 3hat is, the new * shoul reuce uncertainty on #acility (er#or"ance,

    conitione on ha=ar level. Ne illustrate the calculation o# (ro:a:ility -or occurrence rate

    ($*%, an a "ethoology #or selecting an scaling groun "otions with a esire *. t woul

    esira:le to create a (ro:a:ilistic "oel o# etaile groun "otion as a #unction o# *, i.e.,

    ($G*O*%, :ut #or the (resent, we treat as eui(ro:a:le a set o# historic groun?"otions

    recore at si"ilar sites with a((roxi"ately si"ilar ha=ar conitions.

    Engineering demand parameters. PEER researchers will atte"(t to ienti#y a li"ite

    set o# engineering e"an (ara"eters -E)P that are inicative o# overall structural res(onse, #or

    use in si"(li#ying esign. t is ho(e that a single (ara"eter -or (erha(s a s"all set such as

    (eak transient ri#t at the to( o# the structure, will correlate strongly enough with (er#or"ance

    that structural esigners will not nee to ex(licitly evaluate a"age an loss, :ut "erely

    e"onstrate that E)P is less than so"e allowa:le level, associate with the esire level o#

    (er#or"ance. Ne will eluciate an illustrate a "ethoology #or calculating the conitional

    (ro:a:ility ($E)POG*, *%, an given this an ($G*O*%, the (ro:a:ility ($E)PO*%. 9ne can

    convolve ($E)PO*% with ($*% to (rouce ($E)P%, as illustrate in Fig. 1, or carry along

    conitioning on * until the en o# the (rocess, e(ening on how one wishes to ex(ress

    (er#or"ance.

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    )amage measures. PEER researchers will create or co"(ile #ragility #unctions #or the

    "a;or a"agea:le contents o# the :uiling. Fragility #unctions give the (ro:a:ility o# a #acility

    co"(onent reaching or exceeing an unesira:le (er#or"ance level, as a #unction o# excitation.

    PEER researchers will categori=e the :uiling contents in a li"ite, clearly e#ine taxono"ic

    syste" e#ine relevant (hysical a"age "easures -)* #or each category an create #ragility

    #unctions #or each a"age state, ($)*OE)P%. Given this an ($E)P%, we will eluciate an

    illustrate the calculation o# ($)*%. >gain, conitioning on * can :e carrie though the (rocess,

    so the (rouct o# the a"age analysis can also :y ($)*O*%.

    )ecision &aria!les. 3hese ecision varia:les -)& "easure overall #acility (er#or"ance

    in ter"s "ost relevant to #acility stakeholers. For the :uiling owner consiere here, )& is

    "ost likely to inclue the o(erational #ailure o# the scienti#ic la:oratories house in the :uiling.

    3his stuy eluciates an illustrates a "ethoology #or calculating ($)&O)*% an, given ($)*%,

    the calculation o# ($)&%. # one retains conitioning on *, the (rouct o# this stage is

    ex(resse as ($)*O*%, which re(resents the generic case o# a seis"ic vulnera:ility #unction. t

    can "easure (er#or"ance at iscrete ha=ar levels, as in the >S4E6FE*> "ethoology. 9ne

    can then convolve with * to (rouce ($)&%, which can "easure (er?event, (er?year, or li#eti"e

    (er#or"ance, e(ening on how ha=ar is ex(resse.

    )ecision*ma+ing implications. Nhile #inancial ecision?"aking is not a (ri"ary #ocus

    o# PEERHs e##ort, we recogni=e that to e#ine an esti"ate )& correctly, we "ust unerstan

    how the )& is use in #inancial (ractice. 3his stuy there#ore exa"ines the ecision?"aking

    (ractices o# ty(ical stakeholers o# such a :uiling, an illustrates how the )& esti"ates

    (rouce here coul in#or" an ownerHs risk?"anage"ent ecisions.

    ncertaint%. Ne ienti#y the "a;or sources o# uncertainty in ($)&%, uanti#ying the

    contri:ution at each ste( #ro" *, G*, E)P, an )* to )&, consiering (ro(agation an

    correlation. Ne ienti#y the sources o# uncertainty that are "ost signi#icant in this situation,an

    those that can :e neglecte. 9# the "a;or contri:utors, we ienti#y o((ortunities #or reucing

    uncertainty :y aitional ata?gathering or :y changes in "oeling. n other situations, such as a

    si"ilar co""ercial :uiling on liue#ia:le soil, a newer :uiling, or a :rige, i##erent sources

    o# uncertainty "ay :e "ore i"(ortant. 3he larger PEER e##ort will seek to categori=e a variety

    o# such situations an ienti#y i"(ortant sources o# uncertainty in each.

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    ( Methodology #omponents to "e !ested0.

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    . /a0ard AnalysisP. So"erville, 4.>. 4ornell, S.

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    s(ectra #or the #ault nor"al an #ault (arallel co"(onents o# groun "otion, is not :e reuire,

    #or the reasons state a:ove.

    Soil s(ectra were generate #ro" the rock site s(ectra :y "ulti(lying the rock s(ectra :y

    the ratio o# soil to rock s(ectra #or the >:raha"son an Silva -1BB groun "otion "oel.

    3hese ratios are #or the "oe "agnitue an istance co":inations #ro" the eaggregation o#

    the ha=ar, liste in 3a:le 2.

    3a:le 1. Eual?0a=ar Res(onse S(ectra #or the &an 'uys 5uiling

    9a,ard le*el )eriod Roc< Soil

    78I in 78 yr 8.81 8.2D 8.2!2

    8.1 8.22 8.!!C

    8.2 8.77 8.B1

    8.! 8.722 8.7!

    8.7 8.!7 8.B

    8.D 8.2 8.!

    1.8 8.1DD 8.2D

    1.7 8.127 8.21

    2.8 8.188 8.1

    18I in 78 yr 8.81 8.C2D 8.B8

    8.1 1.21! 8.D1B

    8.2 1.! 1.8BB

    8.! 1.! 1.2C

    8.7 1.127 1.!!B8.D 8.1 8.BD

    1.8 8.72D 8.D8C

    1.7 8.!2 8.7!

    2.8 8.2!7 8.28

    2I in 78 yr 8.81 8.BDB 8.CBD8.1 1.DBD 1.1!78.2 2.2C2 1.77B8.! 2.288 1.D28.7 1.7 1.BD8

    8.D 1.! 1.C1.8 8.B7 1.!1.7 8.7 8.B2.8 8.81 8.2B

    1D

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    -..- )eisaggregation of the /a0ardResults2 for these t'o Sa3s at each of the three le&els.

    3he eaggregation o# the ha=ar shows that the ha=ar at the site is o"inate :y near:y

    earthuakes. 3he higher groun "otions #or the 2I in 78 year (ro:a:ility level than #or the 18I

    in 78?year level will re#lect not larger "agnitues, :ut higher groun "otion levels #or the sa"e

    "agnitue -larger nu":er o# stanar eviations a:ove the "ean.

    3a:le 2. )eaggregation o# uni#or" ha=ar s(ectra, 7I a"(ing, soil, east -transverse Saat 1secon, at the &an 'uys :uiling

    9a,ard le*el Earth=uaitional criteria are that the

    earthuake have a thrust "echanis", incluing :lin thrust "echanis"s -like the 1BB'orthrige earthuake, an that the recoring not contain strong #orwar ru(ture irectivity

    e##ects. >ll o# the recorings are #ro" thrust earthuakes in the Los >ngeles region, an inclue

    the 1B1 San Fernano, 1BDC 'orth Pal" S(rings, 1BB Nhittier 'arrows, an 1BB 'orthrige

    earthuakes. >ll o# the selecte recorings are #ro" soil sites. *uch :etter re(resentations o#

    a((ro(riate site e##ects coul :e "ae in the selection o# ti"e histories, #or exa"(le :y using

    recorings #ro" sites with co"(ara:le seis"ic velocity (ro#iles, i# there were seis"ic velocity

    ata at the site -as exists #or the R9SR'E sites.

    For each set o# recorings, a scaling #actor was #oun :y "atching the east co"(onent

    ti"e history to the longituinal uni#or" ha=ar s(ectru" at a (erio o# 1.7 sec. 3his scaling

    #actor was then a((lie to all three co"(onents o# the recoring. 3his scaling (roceure

    (reserves the relative scaling :etween the three co"(onents o# the recoring.

    1B

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    3he ti"e histories use to re(resent the 78I in 78 year groun "otions are liste in 3a:le

    !. 3hese ti"e histories are erive #ro" the 1B1 San Fernano, 1BDC 'orth Pal" S(rings, 1BD

    Nhittier 'arrows, an 1BB 'orthrige earthuakes. 3he ti"e histories use to re(resent the

    18I in 78 year groun "otions are liste in 3a:le . 3hese ti"e histories are erive #ro" the

    1B1 San Fernano an 1BB 'orthrige earthuakes. 3he ti"e histories use to re(resent the

    2I in 78 year groun "otions are liste in 3a:le 7. Nith the exce(tion o# the &an 'uys

    recoring o# the 1B1 San Fernano earthuake, all o# these ti"e histories are #ro" the 1BB

    'orthrige earthuake.

    3a:le !. 3i"e histories re(resenting 78I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling

    Earth=ua+ stri

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    3a:le . 3i"e histories re(resenting 18I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys 5uiling

    Earth=ua+ stri

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    3a:le 7. 3i"e histories re(resenting 2I in 78 years ha=ar level at the &an 'uys :uiling

    Earth=ua+ stri

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    Fig. 2. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the longituinalan transverse co"(onents #or each o# three groun?"otion levels.

    2!

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    Fig. !. &aria:ility in the groun "otions o# each set o# ten scale recorings #or the verticalco"(onent #or each o# three groun "otion levels.

    2

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    Fig. . 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the tenscale recorings #or the 78I in 78 year groun "otion level.

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    Fig. 7. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the ten

    scale recorings #or the 18I in 78 year groun "otion level.

    2C

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    Fig. C. 4o"(arison o# the longituinal an transverse res(onse s(ectra average over the ten

    scale recorings #or the 2I in 78 year groun "otion level.

    -.1. Epistemic ncertaint% inPro!a!ilistic Seismic /a0ard Anal%sisPS/A.

    > "a;or contri:utor to e(iste"ic uncertainty1in the (reiction an (ro:a:ilistic analysis

    o# #uture structural :ehavior is that associate with the Pro:a:ilistic Seis"ic 0a=ar >nalysis

    1> glossary o# ter"s a((ears at the en o# this re(ort

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    -PS0>. 3he current SGS "a(s are state to :e :ase on the "ean esti"ates o# the annual

    #reuency o# exceeance o# any groun "otion level, which is the a((ro(riate esti"ate #or

    eter"ining "ean esti"ates o# structural li"it state (ro:a:ilities an "ean annual losses. t

    shoul :e recogni=e, however, that the 1BBC SGS "a(s are :ase on an a"ittely attenuate

    uncertainty analysis "ore co"(lete uncertainty analyses are (ro"ise #or the #orthco"ing "a(s.

    # "ore in#or"ation is neee, it is suggeste that the results o# other "ore local, etaile stuies

    -such as that (re(are #or the "a;or 4altrans:riges in southern 4ali#ornia, REF. :e use #or

    esti"ating ;ust how large the uncertainties "ay :e an what e##ect these likely larger

    uncertainties "ight have on the "ean esti"ates.

    )elivera:lesJ

    Recors an ni#or" 0a=ar S(ectra availa:le :y Qanuary !1, 2882

    )ra#t o# section :y >(ril 17, 2882

    Final re(ort :y 9cto:er 1, 2882

    >uthorsJ So"erville an 4ornell

    2D

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    6.6 FREE-FIE:D 9;RD 2:SIS 2D RE0RD SE:E'I02 !SED 02

    I)R05ED IS

    Res(onsi:le >uthor 4ornell

    Pro(osals #or i"(rove *s -scalar an vector, an e"onstration o# their

    via:ility on the L> 3est:e -5ray, 4ornell6Luco, )eierlein64orova, 4onte,

    ssess"ent o# e##iciency an su##iciency o# (ro(ose *s, using is(ersion

    in E)Ps -an )&s, i# (ossi:le as criteria -this is really not a ha=ar issue, :ut

    shoul :e (lace here #or consistency

    0a=ar analysis with i"(rove *s -4ornell, So"erville

    E##ect o# * choices on recor selection (rocess an nu":er o# recors -4ornell

    >ssess"ent o# e(iste"ic an aleatory uncertainties -4ornell

    Site?s(eci#ic * ha=ar curves -#or #ree?#iel conitions

    9utline -)ra#t o# Qan. 1, 2882 :y 4>4

    -.-. Brief 5eneral )iscussion of (M3s and their issues

    -.-.1 Process sed !% (M Stud% 5roup to E&aluate and Select (mpro&ed (Ms

    -.-.- Candidate (Ms for #$ test!ed. Brief "ustification for each

    -.-.4 Results of (M studies for the #$ test!ed

    -.-.6 /a0ard Anal%sis of impro&ed (M73s8

    )elivera:lesJ

    9utline o# section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -4ornell

    )ocu"entation o# e##iciency an su##iciency :y >ugust 1, 2882 A -all

    Selection o# :est *s :y >ugust !1, 2882 A -4o""ittee

    )ra#t o# section on *s -with ata trans#er to all :y 9cto:er 1, 2882A-all

    0a=ar analysis an assess"ent o# uncertainties :y *arch 288! A -4ornell

    Final re(ort :y >(ril 17, 288!A

    >uthorsJ 4ornell, So"erville, an others who are (ro(osing new *s

    2B

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    !8

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    6.% EFFE'S 0F SI'E S0I: )R0FI:E 02 IS 2D #R012D 0'I02S

    Res(onsi:le >uthor (ril 17 -*artin, ssess"ent o# soil?#ounation?structure interaction :y Se(te":er 2882 -

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    Pile ca(s

    Grae :ea"s

    Structural (ro(erties

    Pile #ounations

    Pile ca(s

    Grae :ea"s

    4onnections

    *etho o# construction

    Pile ca( construction co"(action o# soil a;acent to (ile ca(s

    Grae :ea" construction co"(action o# soil a;acent to grae :ea"s

    Site Res(onse

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    E##ects o# uncertainties

    E##ects o# Soil?Founation?Structure nteraction on *s *artin,

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    1 Prediction of E2PsL. Lowes, 3. 0utchinson

    %.$ 2:'I: 0DE:I2# 0F F012D'I02

    3he su((orting #ounation :elow the &an 'uys :uiling is a series o# #riction (iles integrate

    with (ile ca(s as shown in Fig. .3here are a((roxi"ately #our i##erent ty(es o# (ile?(ile?ca(

    arrange"ents, ranging #ro" single (iles at select (eri"eter locations to (ile?grou(s. Pile an

    (ile?grou(s are no"inally integrate with 2 ee( grae:ea"s at the (eri"eter o# the :uiling

    an 12 ee( tie :ea"s at the interior as shown in Figure 2. > geotechnical re(ort (re(are :y

    GeoSyste"s -1BB inicates (ri"arily "eiu" ense silty sans at the site as shown in the #our

    :oring logs re(rouce in Figure !.

    For (reli"inary seis"ic e"an assess"ent, the #ounation actions "ay :e a((roxi"ate :y

    uncou(le elastic s(ring co"(onents re(resenting vertical, hori=ontal an rotational resistances.

    sing the "ethoology suggeste in FE*> 2!62 -1BB an an esti"ate #riction angle o# H

    !7T, elastic s(ring resistances have :een esti"ate an are (rovie in 3a:le 1. Such

    esti"ations are :ase on the assu"(tion that the (ile?(ile?ca( connection (rovies no rotational

    restraint -i.e. (inne an that :ase contact at the (ile?ca( is negligi:le, thus all lateral restraint is

    (rovie :y the (assive resistance against the (iles. n aition, rotational resistance was

    esti"ate assu"ing only the axial sti##ness o# the iniviual (iles contri:ute.

    !

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    NORTH

    Type CType D

    Type B

    Type A

    PILE CAP PLAN

    4 PILES

    SECTIONSECTION

    PILE CAP PLAN

    3 PILES

    SECTION

    PILE CAP PLAN

    2 PILES

    3

    '-

    0

    "

    3

    '-

    0

    "

    2

    '-

    0"

    1

    0

    '-

    0"

    3'-0" 2'-0" 3'-0" 3'-0"

    2

    '-

    0

    "

    2

    '-

    0

    "

    3'-0" 3'-0" 2'-0"

    10'-0"2

    '-

    0

    "

    4

    '-

    0

    "

    1'-

    3

    "2

    '-

    6

    "

    1'-3"

    2'-6"

    SECTION

    PILE CAP PLAN

    1 PILE

    TYPE "A" PILE CAP TYPE "B" PILE CAP TYPE "C" PILE CAP TYPE "D" PILE CAP

    10'-0"

    3'-0"

    3

    '-

    2

    "

    3

    '-

    2

    "

    3

    '-

    2

    "

    Fig. 7. Foundation plan and primary types of pile-pile-cap combinations.

    !7

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    4" SLAB

    CONC. COLUMN

    24" CIP PILES

    PILE CAP

    24" DEEP !RADE BEAM

    OR ILL

    CONC. COLUMN

    1#" $ % 12" D TIE BEAM

    OR ILL

    24" CIP PILES

    PILE CAP

    4" SLAB

    3#"

    3#"

    TYPICAL E%TERIOR PILE SECTION TYPICAL INTERIOR PILE SECTION

    Fig. 8. Interior and exterior pile-cap details.

    Fig. . !oring logs "reproduced from #eoSystems $%&.

    01

    0&

    10

    20

    1&

    30

    2&

    40

    3&

    &0

    4&

    LI!HT BRO$NISH YELLO$' SO"T' DAMP'

    MOIST' SILTY SAND (SM)

    LI!HT BRO$N' TI!HT' DAMP' MOIST' SILTY

    SANDY SILT (SM * ML)

    BRO$N' !RA+ELLY SAND' MOIST' DENSE'

    POORLY !RADED (SP * S$)

    LI!HT' BRO$N' SILTY SAND' CLAYEY SILT'

    TI!HT' DAMP' MOIST (ML)

    ARTI"ICIAL "ILL - LI!HT BRO$N' SILTY

    SAND' +ERY SO"T' LI!HT' MOIST (A,)

    BORIN!

    NO. B-1N (BLO$S

    PER "OOT)

    4#

    3#

    33

    0

    #1

    BORIN!NO. B-2

    11

    21

    40

    22

    34

    BRO$N' !RA+ELLY SAND' MOIST' DENSE'

    POORLY !RADED (SP * S$)

    BORIN!NO. B-3

    2

    3&

    34

    26

    61

    BORIN!NO. B-4

    2#

    34

    2

    &

    DEPTH("T)

    &0

    1&

    40

    4&

    3&

    2&

    30

    20

    10

    01

    0&

    &0

    1&

    40

    4&

    3&

    2&

    30

    20

    10

    01

    0&

    &0

    1&

    40

    4&

    3&

    2&

    30

    20

    10

    01

    0&

    DEPTH("T)

    N (BLO$S

    PER "OOT)

    DEPTH("T)

    N (BLO$S

    PER "OOT)

    DEPTH("T)

    N (BLO$S

    PER "OOT)

    B - 1

    B -

    B - .

    B - (

    NORTH

    !C

    +/

    /HR/

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    'able (. )reliminary recommendations for elastic *ertical+ hori,ontal and rotational spring

    stiffnesses.

    Description < 5"uthor Lowes

    *oeling o# ele"ent :ehavior -with eterioration -Lowes, )eierlein

    tili=ation o# Structural Per#or"ance )ata 5ase -Fenves

    *oeling o# #ounation co"(onents -*artin, Lowes

    *oeling o# soil?#ounation inter#ace -*artin, , "ax roo#

    is(lace"ent. Linear res(onse s(ectru", "ulti(le nonlinear (ushover "oels,

    "ulti(le nonlinear ti"e?history structural analyses.

    "(act o# "oeling assu"(tions on uncertainties. 0

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    Present ), &, > at #loor levels, $story is(lace"ent ti"e histories%, *? at :ea"?colu"n

    sections, total ;oint e#or"ation.

    4.2.1.1 Efficiency

    4.2.1.2 Flei!ility

    4.2.1." #ccu$acy

    4.2.1.4 %alculation of EDP&s

    4.1.1 T%pes of Models Emplo%ed

    4.2.2.1 Mo'eling assu(ptions

    -Lowes

    4.2.2.2 2D )s. "D

    -Lowes

    4.2.2." Ele(ent fo$(ulations

    -Lowes, )eierlein

    3raitional ele"ents

    'on?uctile :ea"?colu"n ele"ent

    5ea"?colu"n ;oint ele"ent

    Founation ele"ents

    4.2.2.4 Mo'eling of the soil*foun'ation inte$face

    -Sitar,

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    4.2.4.2 he i(pact of (o'eling assu(ption on (o'el unce$tainty

    -AA

    )elivera:lesJ

    9utline o# section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -Lowes

    First 2?) structural "oel o# structure?#ounation syste" :y Fe:ruary 2D, 2882 -with trans#er

    o# 9(enSees "oel an ocu"entation to other researchers, with i"(rove "oels to

    #ollow. Nork on 2?) "oeling o# original structure to :e co"(lete :y *ay 2882 -Lowes

    )esign o# retro#itte structure :y 0eint= :y >ugust !1, 288!.

    2?) "oels -one :y 0eint=, one :y Lowes o# retro#itte an PEER esigne structures.

    0eint= :y !1 >u 288!, Lowes :y 17 9ct 288!. :y )ece":er 2882 -LowesLowesH will use

    :ea"?colu"n ele"ents #or the shearwall, an in(ut the sa"e !8 recors an (rovie E)Ps.

    >e e##ort outsie o# (resent sco(e is creation :y *irana o# #ragility #unctions, (erha(s

    using FE*> !8C, !8, !8D, an loss "oel :y 17 9ct 288.

    First !?) structural "oel :y 9cto:er 2882, with i"(rove "oels to #ollow uring +ear C

    -o# soil?#ounation?structure syste" -Lowes

    Partial )ra#t :y 9cto:er 28821861768!

    Final re(ort ra#t:y >(ril 288!126!168!

    >uthorsJ Lowes, )eierlein, Fenves, Sitar,

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    %.6 5:ID'I02 0F 2:'I: 0DE:S

    Res(onsi:le >uthor Lowes

    &aliation through co"(onent tests -Leh"an, Lowes, Stanton, *oehle -:y

    9cto:er 2882. Su:asse":lage tests consiering si"ulate an o:serve

    res(onse, #ocusing on colu"ns an ;oints, using si"(le -nonuctility?:ase

    colu"n shear?#ailure "oels.

    &aliation through #ra"e tests -*oehle -:y 9cto:er 288!A

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    )ra#t on #ra"e valiation test :y >(ril 288!9cto:er 288!

    Final re(ort :y 9cto:er )ece":er 288!

    >uthorsJ *oehle, Leh"an, Lowes, Stanton

    1

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    %.% )REDI'I02 0F ED)S F0R D#E SSESSE2'

    Res(onsi:le >uthor *irana4ornell

    'a"e the Relevant relevant E)Ps #or a"age assess"ent, incluing structural,

    architectural, *EP, an content su:syste"s -*irana, with contri:utions :y

    Lowes, Porter, E:erhar, Stanton, an Leh"an. Lowes will tell Stanton an

    Leh"an that they are res(onsi:le

    Preictions o# E)Ps #ro" non?eteriorating an eteriorating "oels -e.g.,

    structure s(eci#ic escri(tions o# E)P6*, an site site?s(eci#ic E)P ha=ar

    curves -4ornell,

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    res(onse (ara"eters. t is i"(ortant to note that these E)Ps re(resent (eak -"axi"u" a:solute

    values o# these res(onse (ara"eters an o not necessarily occur at the sa"e ti"e.

    nterstory ri#t ratio -)R is closely correlate with structural a"age o# all ele"ents

    (resent in this :uiling, e.g. colu"ns, s(anrel :ea"s, sla:s an their corres(oning connections.

    )R is also well correlate with a"age to "any ty(es o# nonstructural co"(onents. > #ew

    exa"(les areJ "asonry in#ill walls, interior (artitions, winows an gla=e walls, interior an

    exterior oors, staircases, railings in the elevator, elevator oors, vertical (i(ing, etc.

    Peak a:solute -groun (lus relative #loor acceleration -PF> is closely correlate with

    a"age to other nonstructural ele"ents, such asJ (ara(ets, sus(ene ceilings, #ire s(rinklers,

    electrical (ower generators, counterweights in elevator, hori=ontal (i(ing, air conitioning units,

    etc. )a"age to so"e ty(es o# contents "ay also :e correlate to PF>.

    Peak a:solute -groun (lus relative #loor velocity is correlate with a"age to so"e

    ty(es o# contents -(articularly those susce(ti:le to overturning.

    t has :een shown ->slani an *irana, 2882 that the a:ove engineering e"an

    (ara"eters can :e assu"e to :e lognor"ally istri:ute at any given level o# intensity, #or the

    range o# intensity "easures that are o# interest in this test:e. 3he lognor"al (ro:a:ility

    istri:ution only reuires two (ara"eters to :e #ully e#ine. 9ne (ara"eter is a "easure o#

    central tenency an the other is a "easure o# is(ersion. 3here are "any (ossi:le ways to

    esti"ate these (ara"eters. For a etaile iscussion on i##erent alternatives #or these two

    (ara"eters o# the lognor"al (ro:a:ility istri:ution the reaer is re#erre to >slani an *irana,

    2882.

    3he alternatives that have :een consiere #or the "easure o# central tenency areJ

    -i 3he ex(onential o# the "ean o# the natural log o# the ata 0ne

    -ii 3he sa"(le -i.e., counte "eian

    -iii > "easure o# central tenency co"(ute #ro" a regression analysis in nor"al

    coorinates $S

    -#or etails see >slani an *irana 2882.

    3he alternatives :eing consiere #or "easure o# is(ersion areJ

    -i 3he stanar eviation o# the natural log o# the ata 0n

    -ii > "easure o# is(ersion calculate :ase on the inter?uartile range o# the ata

    -#or etails see >slani an *irana 2882.

    !

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    -iii > "easure o# is(ersion calculate :ase on a regression analysis in nor"al

    coorinates $S

    -#or etails see >slani an *irana 2882.

    3he #ollowing reco""enations can :e "ae on the a((lica:ility o# the a:ove

    alternatives #or the "easure o# central tenency an o# is(ersionJ

    -i # the E)PHs calculate #ro" ti"e history analyses o not inclue values that are

    signi#icantly larger than the rest o# the sa"(le -values that can :e consiere as

    outliers then 0ne an 0n can :e use as the "easures o# central tenency an

    is(ersion, res(ectively.

    -ii # the E)PHs calculate #ro" the ti"e history analyses inclue outliers, :ut the

    sa"(le si=e is large enough -incluing results o# 18 or "ore groun "otions then

    the counte "eian o# the ata can :e use as a :etter "easure o# central

    tenency an calculate #ro" the inter?uartile range o# the ata can :e use as

    a :etter "easure o# is(ersion. 3his situation arises #or exa"(le when looking at

    )R in certain #loors where co"(ute values #or certain groun "otions can :e

    extre"ely large -colla(se cases.

    -iii # the E)PHs calculate #ro" the ti"e history analyses inclue outliers an the

    sa"(le si=e is s"all -incluing less than 18 ata (oints then the (ara"eters

    calculate #ro" the regression analysis, $S

    an $

    , are reco""ene as "ore

    relia:le "easures o# central tenency an is(ersion #or "ost o# the ata in the

    sa"(le.

    n the a((roach (ro(ose :y >slani an *irana 2882, the variation o# the "easures o#

    central tenency an is(ersion are escri:e :y continuu" #unctions given :yJ

    For the "easure o# central tenencyJ

    !-S 21 IMIM$= -E 1

    For the "easure o# is(ersionJ

    2!21 --

    1SIMIM

    $

    ++

    = -E 2

    where * is the selecte intensity "easure, 1, 2 ,! are constants are constants that are

    co"(ute #ro" a regression analysis with three knownIM ? $S

    (airs. Para"eters 1, 2 , an !

    are constants that are co"(ute #ro" a regression analysis with three known IM ? $S

    (airs.

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    3here#ore in the a((roach (ro(ose :y >slani an *irana "easures o# central tenency an

    is(ersion are evaluate at three levels o# intensity "easure. For etails on the selection o# these

    groun "otion intensity levels the reaer is re#erre to >slani an *irana, 2882. Please note

    that unlike the LRF)?#or"at si"(li#ie a((roach (ro(ose :y 4ornell et al. #or S>4, here the

    is(ersion is '93 assu"e constant, its variation is ex(licitly ca(ture.

    4.4.- Results of E)P &ersus (M

    4.4.4 E)P /a0ard Cur&es

    4.4.6 Epistemic ncertaint%.

    E##ect o# this on E)P ha=ar curves.

    4.4.: Prediction !% Means of Simplified Approaches

    -results #ro" generic structures, various analysis "ethos $elastic, (ushover%

    )elivera:lesJ

    9utline o# section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -4ornell

    List o# E)Ps an their re(resentation -in the context o# E)P6)*6)& evaluation (rocess, i.e.,

    central value, "easure o# is(ersion, etc. to researchers :y *arch 17, 2882 -*irana

    4o"(rehensive E)P6* ata an E)P ha=ar curves -or other relevant re(resentations on

    we: site :y >ugust 17, 2882 -4ornell, ssess"ent o# aeuacy o# selecte E)Ps :y )ece":er 17, 2882 -*irana, 4ornell

    Partial )ra#t :y 9cto:er 17, 288!2

    Final re(ort ra#t:y >(ril )ece":er !1, 288!

    >uthorsJ *irana, 4ornell, *irana,

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    *oels #or glo:al an local colla(ses -Lowes,

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    9utline o# section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -

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    ' Prediction of 3osses

    @.$ D?ED) 2D D5?D RE:'I02S9I)S

    @ #or "(ortant Structural an 'onstructural 4o"(onents

    Res(onsi:le >uthors *irana -nonstructural K Lowes -structural

    3he )* re#ers to a li"it state that reuires re"eial action -e.g., re(lace"ent o#

    a gy(su" :oar wall, an the )*6E)P relationshi(s "ay :e viewe as

    #ragility curves

    )eter"ine realistic )*6E)P an )&6)* relationshi(s #or selecte structural,

    architectural, *EP, an content co"(onents6su:syste"s -*irana, see Section

    7.!. 3he )& shoul :e U losses an re(air ti"e -#or ownti"e esti"ate

    )ra#t outline :y E. *irana -161C682

    6.. Structural Elements

    -Lowes an *irana

    3.1.1.1 -ea(*%olu(n %onnections

    -Lowes w6in(ut #ro" Stanton6Leh"an:y !1 >ug 288!

    P-)*OE)P o# :ea"?colu"n connections

    P-)&O)* o# :ea"?colu"n connections

    3.1.1.2 Sla!*%olu(n %onnections

    -*irana w6in(ut #ro" *oehle6Ro:erston:y 17 >ug 288!.

    P-)*OE)P o# sla:?colu"n connections

    P-)&O)* o# sla:?colu"n connections

    3.1.1." %olu(ns

    -*irana w6 signi#icant in(ut #ro" *oehle:y 17 9ct 288!.

    P-)*OE)P o# colu"ns

    D

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    P-)&O)* o# colu"ns

    6..1 $onstructural Elements

    -*irana:y 17 9ct 288!

    3.1.2.1 D$ift Sensiti)e /onst$uctu$al %o(ponents

    -! or co"(onents

    P-)*OE)P o# ri#t sensitive non?structural co"(onents

    P-)&O)* o# ri#t sensitive non?structural co"(onents

    3.1.2.2 Sla!*%olu(n %onnections

    -*irana w6in(ut #ro" *oehle6Ro:erston

    P-)*OE)P o# sla:?colu"n connections

    P-)&O)* o# sla:?colu"n connections

    "Prepared !% EM for insertion in section 6&

    3he #ollowing a"age states have :een (ro(ose #or the sla:?colu"n connections :ase

    on the ex(eri"ental re(orts #ro" other researchersJ

    1. S"all cracking o# the connection. 3his level o# cracking ty(ically re(resents crack

    withs s"aller than 8.2 "" associate with o(ening an closure o# cracks.

    2. Nie cracking o# the connection. 3his a"age state can :e consiere as the #irst

    a"age state at which the connection nees to :e re(aire.

    !. Punching shear #ailure o# the connection. >t this a"age state large cracking,

    crushing an s(alling o# concrete surrouning the colu"n occurs resulting in the

    connection looses a signi#icant (ortion o# its lateral loaing ca(acity.

    . Loss o# vertical carrying ca(acity.

    3here is very little in#or"ation availa:le to evelo( E)P to )* #unctions o#

    nonstructural ele"ents. n this research, the #ragility curves are :eing evelo(e :ase on three

    i##erent sources o# in#or"ationJ -1 ex(eri"ental results, -2 (er#or"ance o# nonstructural

    co"(onents in instru"ente :uilings uring (revious earthuakes where a"age re(orts are

    availa:le, -! (er#or"ance o# nonstructural co"(onents uring (revious earthuakes in non?

    instru"ente :uilings where a"age re(orts are availa:le.

    3.1.2." %olu(ns

    -*irana w6 signi#icant in(ut #ro" *oehle

    P-)*OE)P o# colu"ns

    B

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    P-)&O)* o# colu"ns

    )elivera:lesJ

    9utline o# section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -*irana

    Select an escri:e co"(onents an li"it states :y *arch 17 -*irana

    Wuanti#y an isse"inate )*6E)P an )&6)* relationshi(s :y Quly 17 -*irana -see E*

    co""ents a:ove

    )ra#ts o# section :y >ugust 17, 2882.

    Final re(ort :y 9cto:er 1, 2882

    >uthorJ *irana V Lowes

    78

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    @.3 )):I'I02 0F :0SS "2D D0A2'IE& ES'I'I02 E'90D0:0#

    Res(onsi:le >uthor Porter6*iranaA6Porter

    Su""ari=e o(tions in loss -ownti"e esti"ation "ethoology -"ean annual

    losses, losses associate with s(eci#ie earthuake levels -78678, 18678, 2678A

    -e.g., how to integrate over all co"(onents o# structure -*irana

    >lternative ways to #or"ulate the ecision varia:les, to :etter acco""oate the

    nees o# owners -interaction with 4ha(ter D -all

    llustrate a((lication o# "ethoology to

    o Pre?'orthrige :uiling

    o Retro#itte :uiling

    o 5uiling esigne accoring to PEER "ethoology

    enti#y the "a;or contri:utors to losses -structural vs. nonstructural

    4an the -)*6E)P K )&6)* etour :e avoie :y (roviing cost #unctions that

    irectly relate E)P to )&A -*irana

    )elivera:lesJ

    9utline Section :y Qanuary 1, 2882 -*irana

    Provie su""ary o# "ethoology :y *arch 17, 2882 -*irana

    te"i=e -uantity an location o# structural, architectural, *EP, an content

    co"(onents6su:syste"s that will :e consiere in a((lication :y *ay 17, 2882 -*irana

    >((ly "ethoology to (re?'orthrige :uiling :y 9cto:er 1, 2882, with re(ort -*irana

    >((ly "ethoology to retro#itte :uiling :y >(ril !8, 288!, with re(ort -*irana, in

    colla:oration with retro#it esigner $see >((enix 5%

    AA>((ly "ethoology to PEER esigne :uiling :y Qune !8, 288!, with re(ort -*irana, in

    colla:oration with PEER "ethoology esigner $see >((enix 4%AA

    3his issue is uner iscussion, :ecause the e##ort on esign "ethoology has not yet

    starte.

    Final re(ort :y en o# Quly288!

    71

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    >uthorJ *irana

    "Prepared !% EM for insertion in section 6.1&

    ( to this (oint our e##orts have :een ai"e at co"(uting the ex(ecte annual loss in the

    structure.

    3he ex(ecte value o# the loss in co"(onent-either a structural or nonstructural

    co"(onent is co"(ute asJ

    'IM'EDP'IM

    IM'i(IMe'pEDPPe'pEDP'(DMP'(DMEE

    (

    i

    ..ii.. -

    O-O-%O$U%$U

    1 8 8

    =

    =>====

    -E

    !

    where

    ( is the nu":er o# a"age states in co"(onent .

    %O$U i. '(DME = is the ex(ecte value o# the loss in co"(onent given that it is in

    a"age state i.

    O- e'pEDP'(DMP .i == is the (ro:a:ility that co"(onentwill :e in a"age state igiven that

    co"(onenthas :een su:;ecte to an E)P eual to e'p.

    O- i(IMe'pEDPP . => is the (ro:a:ility that the E)P that a##ects co"(onent will excee a

    certain value e'pgiven that the groun "otion intensity "easureIMis

    eual to i(

    'IM

    IM' -is the slo(e o# the seis"ic ha=ar curve corres(oning to the intensity

    "easure *

    3he (ro:a:ility that co"(onentwill :e in a"age state igiven that co"(onenthas

    :een su:;ecte to an E)P eual to e'pis co"(ute as

    O-O-O- 1 e'pEDP'(DMPe'pEDP'(DMPe'pEDP'sDMP iii =>=>=== + -E

    where

    O- e'pEDP'(DMP i => is the (ro:a:ility o# exceeing a"age state iin co"(onentgiven that

    it has :een su:;ecte to an E)P eual to e'p

    O- 1 e'pEDP'(DMP .i. => + is the (ro:a:ility o# exceeing a"age state iK1 in co"(onentgiven

    that it has :een su:;ecte to an E)P eual to e'p

    72

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    3he ex(ecte annual loss #or the whole :uiling, without consiering ownti"e, is given

    the su" o# the ex(ecte losses in each iniviual co"(onent in the :uiling, that is

    [ ]=

    ==== =++++=

    n

    n-l'g EEEEEE

    1

    !21. U%$U...%$U%$U%$U%$U -E 7

    where nis the nu":er o# co"(onents in the :uiling.

    7!

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    4 Propagation of $ncertainties from *M to 2VRes(onsi:le >uthor 4ornellPorter. 5y 17 9ct 288!. will ask #uk i# he will write a

    #ew (ages on what you o with the )&s in #inancial "oeling.

    enti#y an uanti#y all sources o# uncertainties.

    Pro(agate uncertainties an evaluate their i"(act on (er#or"ance assess"ent

    enti#y i"(ortant sources o# uncertainty

    3he ncertainty :reakout grou( o# 161C682 has written a ra#t that iscusses the

    uncertainty issues in so"e etail. 3his ra#t is availa:le #ro" 0.

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    5 Relation to Presently Accepted Engineering

    Approaches

    Res(onsi:le >uthor 0eint=

    7.$ 1RRE2' )R'IE 0F E2#I2EERI2# E5:1'I02

    1. 0ow woul an engineering o##ice evaluate (er#or"ance o# the L> 3est:e:uilingA

    2. Nhat are the o(tions an tool availa:le #or an engineering evaluationA

    0eint=, :y !1 Qul 288!

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    7.6 E2#I2EERI2# SSESSE2' 0F '9E )EER )!EE E'90D0:0#

    !. 0ow to relate the FE*> !7C evaluation to the PEER P5EE evaluation

    . Fro" a (racticing engineerHs (ers(ective, what are the :est (ara"eters to

    escri:e (er#or"ance at various levelsA

    7. Nhat nees to :e one to i"(le"ent the PEER P5EE "ethoology in

    engineering (racticeA

    0eint= !1 )ec 288!

    critiue o# the PEER P5EE "ethoology, an suggestions how to overco"e i"(ei"ents

    to i"(le"entation o# the "ethoology, :y )ece":er 2882 -5P "e":er, 0eint=

    7C

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    6 Societal *ssues and *mpactRes(onsi:le >uthor *es=aros

    $9utline nees to :e (are :ack. >sk Qack.%

    'his is probably best handled as a cross-cutting set of issues for the : building and

    the 1 !uilding+ as the societal issues are more than building specific issues. 'hese are

    probably best handled as a separate year ( proBectC assuming someone is >illing to ta

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    o 0ow "ight we ex(ect P5EE in#or"ation to change ecisions, i# at allA

    3his woul :e s(eculative :ase on other work in (rogress an #inings

    #ro" other contexts.

    o Nhat o we ex(ect woul either enhance or reuce (otential

    e"an6interest #or a P5EE a((roach to "itigationA ner what

    circu"stances woul owners6others want to unertake P5EE?ty(e

    analyses as o((ose to conventional a((roachesA 9rJ why "ight we

    ex(ect the" not to (re#er P5EE uner "ost circu"stancesA

    enti#ication o# issues #or the regulatory syste"

    o "(lications #or i##erent roles in :uiling regulation -engineer, architect,

    owner, owner re(, #inancing, insurer, :uiling o##icial, (eer review, (lan

    review

    o "(lications #or coe (rovisions an guielines -e.g., nee #or si"(li#ie

    version o# P5EE, #irst?cut version how to convey (er#or"ance choices

    as (art o# coe (rovisions6guielines

    o 0ow oes legal lia:ility shi#t uner P5EE, i# at allA

    9ther issues

    o 0ow o intere(enencies6externalities #it the P5EE #ra"eworkA

    o >re social ile""as any i##erent with P5EE vs. other "oelsA

    7D

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    7 References>:raha"son, '.>. an N.Q. Silva, 1BB, E"(irical res(onse s(ectral attenuation relations #or

    shallow crustal earthuakes, Seis(ological esea$ch 0ette$sCD, B?12.

    >slani, 0. an E. *irana, E. -2882, 5uiling?S(eci#ic Loss Esti"ation *ethoology, PEER Re(ort -in

    (re(aration.

    4ali#ornia GeoSyste"s, 1BB,Foun'ation Soils In)estigation 5 Eisting 6oli'ay Inn -uil'ing,

    oscoe -oule)a$' an' O$ion #)enue, Van /uys, %alifo$nia, Glenale, 4>, 2C ((.,

    htt(J66www.(eertest:es.net6&'+6&anI28'uysI28soilsI28re(ort.(#

    Feeral E"ergency *anage"ent >gency, 1BB,FEM# 27"8 /E6P 9ui'elines fo$ the Seis(ic

    eha!ilitation of -uil'ings, Nashington, )4

    Feeral E"ergency *anage"ent >gency, 2888, #S%E:FEM# "3;8 P$estan'a$' fo$ the Seis(ic

    eha!ilitation of -uil'ings, Nashington, )4, htt(J66ww2.egenkol:.co"6#e"a2!62r!7C.ht"l

    Frankel, >, @ 2881, @ $XXPaulJ re#AYY%

    Frankel, >., $XXPaulJ an whoAYY%,1BBC, >>8 Pe$fo$(ance*-ase' Seis(ic Enginee$ing of

    -uil'ings,(re(are :y Structural Engineers >ssociation o# 4ali#ornia, Sacra"ento, 4>

    Structural Engineers >ssociation o# 4ali#ornia, 1BBB,eco((en'e' 0ate$al Fo$ce e?ui$e(ents

    an' %o((enta$y, Sacra"ento, 4>, 8 ((.

    4 Science 5uiling 3est:e 4o""ittee, in (rogress,PEE Pe$fo$(ance*-ase' Ea$th?ua@e

    Enginee$ing Metho'ology8 %ontent Da(age an' Ope$a!ility #spects, Paci#ic Earthuake

    Engineering Research 4enter, Rich"on, 4>

    Nal et al.,1BBC, $XXPaulJ re#AYY%

    7B

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    ) 8lossary

    >leatoryuncertainty

    >leatory "eans o# ice. >leatory uncertainty, o#ten si"(ly calle rano"ness,re#ers to uncertainty that cannot :e reuce :y #urther stuy :ecause it is inherentin the (rocess uner consieration. n the exa"(le o# a (air o# ice or the toss o#a coin, the conce(t o# aleatory uncertainty i"(lies that the (ro:a:ility o# any(articular outco"e can :e known, :ut the true outco"e cannot :e e#initivelyeter"ine :e#ore it is o:serve. 3he istinction :etween e(iste"ic an aleatoryuncertainty is acce(te :y aherents to classical statistics. 5ayesian statisticiansre;ect the istinction, holing that all uncertainty can :e reuce :y #urther stuy,

    though (otentially at (rohi:itive cost. 3hey assert that i# an uncertainty is(ractically e#ine as aleatory i# the cost to reuce it is (rohi:itive at the (resentti"e, rather than :ecause o# the nature o# the (heno"enon itsel#, then no varia:lecan :e e#initively ienti#ie as inherently aleatory or e(iste"ic. For theexa"(les o# the #uture throw o# a (air o# ice, i# one knew the value o# all therelevant ine(enent varia:les, such as the initial velocity an angular"o"entu" o# the toss, the e##ects o# air currents, the exact to(ology an "aterialcharacteristics o# the sur#ace on which the ice or coin woul lan, etc., then onecoul co"(letely eter"ine the outco"e :e#ore it is o:serve, an a su((oselyinherently rano" outco"e suenly :eco"es eter"ina:le with a :etter "oelo# reality, that is, an aleatory uncertainty :eco"es an e(iste"ic one instea.

    E(iste"icuncertainty

    E(iste"ology re#ers to the stuy o# knowlege or :elie#, or in other wors, thestuy o# conce(tual "oels o# reality. E(iste"ic uncertainty there#ore re#ers tothe uncertain egree o# i##erence :etween a "oel an actual reality. > "oelthat ex(resses reality "ore accurately has less e(iste"ic uncertainty, either:ecause it involves "ore varia:les to e(ict "ore co"(lexity, or :ecause thevaria:les in the "oel are "ore closely relate to the i"(ortant as(ects o# reality,i.e., those as(ects that "ost strongly in#luence a varia:le o# interest. 3o reucee(iste"ic uncertainty there#ore reuires greater a:ility to istinguish "ore?i"(ortant varia:les #ro" less?i"(ortant ones. E(iste"ic uncertainty is o#tenre#erre to si"(ly as uncertainty, an is a counter(art o# aleatory uncertainty,which is o#ten re#erre to as rano"ness. >n exa"(le o# e(iste"ic uncertainty

    is the i##erence :etween the stress?strain relationshi( o# a nearly elasto?(lastic"aterial, an the ieali=e elasto?(lastic "oel o# its stress?strain relationshi(, orto the i##erence :etween engineering stress an true stress. 3he istinction:etween e(iste"ic an aleatory uncertainty is acce(te in classical statistics anre;ecte :y aherents to 5ayesian (ro:a:ility theory. See also aleato$yunce$tainty.

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    Appendi+ A9 Pre-orthridge Building #ondition

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    occu(ancy o# 28 to !8, a ty(ical nightti"e occu(ancy o# 18 -1!2 [ 8.8 [ 1.7 K !, an a (eak

    occu(ancy -at night o# 288 -1!2 [ 1.8 [ 1.7 K !.

    Fig. 18. Location o# the e"onstration :uilingJ the K sy":ol a:ove the 87 shiel.

    3he initial value o# the #acility in 1BCC was U1.C* -4ity o# Los >ngeles )e(t o# 5uiling

    an Sa#ety, 1BCC. 3he general "anager esti"ates the current "arket value to :e U.7 to UD*.

    3his esti"ate agrees with a si"(le calculation :ase on net o(erating inco"e (rovie :y the

    general "anager, ivie :y ca(itali=ation rate. 3he gross inco"e in 2881 #ro" hotel roo"

    rentals was U2.*. 3he ex(ense ratio -o(erating ex(enses as a #raction o# gross o(erating

    inco"e was a((roxi"ately 8.7B, inicating a net o(erating inco"e o# a((roxi"ately U1.1*.

    >nother hotel o# the sa"e chain an si=e was avertise #or sale in Los >ngeles in 2881 with an

    avertise ca(itali=ation rate -net o(erating inco"e ivie :y asking (rice o# 8.1!. 3hus,:ase on rental inco"e, the value is a((roxi"ately UD.!*.

    'ote that a restaurant #or this hotel woul generate an aitional U1* (er year in gross

    revenue. >lthough re(airs (er#or"e a#ter the 1BB 'orthrige earthuake necessitate closing

    the ining roo" an tavern, we are su((osing the :uiling to :e in its (re?1BB conition.

    9(erating ex(enses #or such a restaurant woul :e 7I o# gross revenue, "eaning that the

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    restaurant an tavern woul a U278,888 in net revenue. sing the sa"e ca(itali=ation rate, the

    restaurant an tavern woul thus a U1.B* to the "arket value, #or a total hy(othetical "arket

    value uner (re?'orthrige conitions o# U18.2*.

    3he re(lace"ent cost o# the structure can :e esti"ate :ase on suare?#oot costs.

    >ccoring to RS *eans 4o., nc. -2881, the "eian construction cost o# a "otel hotel is

    a((roxi"ately UCD187.88 (er suare #oot. >ccounting #or location -x1.18B an a total suare

    #ootage o# CC,178 s#, (rouces a "eian re(lace"ent cost esti"ate o# U7.8.*. , i"(lying that

    lan an i"(rove"ents other than the :uiling itsel# account #or U2.7*, or a((roxi"ately 27I,

    o# the #acility value.

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    Fig. 11. First #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.

    C

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    Fig. 12. Secon #loor architectural (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.

    C7

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    Fig. 1!. 3y(ical hotel suite #loor (lan -Riss"an an Riss"an >ssociates, 1BC7.

    3he owner is a (rivate investor who (urchase the :uiling a#ter the 1BB 'orthrige

    earthuake, an licenses the #ranchise #ro" a "a;or hotel chain. 3he owner has (urchase

    earthuake insurance with a U7* (er?occurrence li"it an 7I eucti:le. 3he (olicy covers

    real (ro(erty, contents, an :usiness inco"e. 5ase on a ocu"ent (rovie :y the general"anager that notes U27,888 "ini"u" (er?occurrence eucti:le, it a((ears that su:li"its a((ly.

    4o""on (ractice woul suggest that the :usiness inco"e coverage su:li"it is U788,888, the

    contents su:li"it is U1,788,888, an the real?(ro(erty su:li"it is U!,888,888. 3hus, in case o# an

    earthuake, the (olicy woul cover all (ro(erty losses in excess o# U178,888, all content losses in

    excess o# U7,888, an all :usiness?inco"e losses in excess o# U27,888, u( to a "axi"u"

    aggregate (ay"ent o# U.7*. 3he earthuake (olicy costs U1,B78 (er year.

    .3 Structural )ropertiesGeotechnical (ro(erties o# the site are escri:e in 4ha(ter . 3he structural syste" is a

    cast?in?(lace rein#orce?concrete "o"ent?#ra"e :uiling with nonuctile colu"n etailing.

    Peri"eter "o"ent #ra"es (rovie the (ri"ary lateral #orce resistance, although the interior

    colu"ns an sla:s also contri:ute to lateral sti##ness. 3he gravity syste" co"(rises 2?way

    rein#orce?concrete #lat sla:s su((orte :y suare colu"ns at the interior an the rectangular

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    colu"ns o# the (eri"eter #ra"e. Sla:s are 18?in ee( at the 2n#loor, DZ in at the !rthrough th

    #loors, an D in at the roo#. 3he roo# also has lightweight concrete to((ing varying in thickness

    :etween !?16 in an D in. 3he colu"n (lan -with the esignerHs colu"n nu":ers is shown Fig.

    1Fig. 1D. >s shown in the #igureFig. 1D, the :uiling is #oune on 2?in ia"eter rille (iers

    in grou(s o# two, three, an #our (iers (er (ileca(. Pier lengths vary :etween !1.7 #t an ! #t.

    8'-9

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    D

    C

    B

    A

    C1C2 C4C3 C5 C6 C8C7 C9

    C1a

    C10 C11 C12 C16

    C10a

    C13 C15C14 C17 C18

    C19 C20 C21 C25C22 C24C23 C26

    C27

    C28 C29 C30 C34C31 C33C32 C35 C36

    C26aC17a

    8 @ 18'-9" = 150'-0"

    20'-1"

    20'-1"

    20'-10"

    N

    3'-5

    14'-0

    3'-5

    8'-8

    Fig. 1. Founation an colu"n (lan. 3he (lan is regular, with three :ays in the transverseirection, eight in the longituinal irection. 41 through 4!C re#ers to colu"n nu":ers-esignerHs notation.

    Fra"es are regular in elevation the south #ra"e elevation is shown in Fig. 17Fig. 1B.

    Floor an roo# :ea"s an s(anrel "arks are shown inFig. 1CFig. 21. 3hese #igures show the

    esignerHs notation #or :ea" an colu"n nu":ering. Floor sla:s are #lat (lates, 18?in thick at

    the 2n#loor, DZ?in at the !rthrough th#loors, an D in at the roo#. 3he roo# also has lightweight

    concrete to((ing o# varying thickness -!?16 in to D in. Peri"eter colu"ns are 1 in :y 28 in,

    oriente to :en in their strong irection a:out the east?west axis. nterior colu"ns are 1D in

    suare. S(anrel :ea"s are generally 1C in wie :y !8 in ee( at the 2n#loor, 1C in wie :y 22?

    Z in ee( at the !rto th#loors, an 1C in wie :y 22 in ee( at the roo#. 3he to(s o# the

    s(anrel :ea"s are #lush with the to( o# the #loor sla:.4olu"n concrete has no"inal strength o#f&c 7 ksi #or the #irst story, ksi #or the secon

    story, an ! ksi #ro" the thir story to the seventh. 5ea" an sla: concrete is no"inallyf&c

    ksi at the secon #loor an ! ksi #ro" the thir #loor to the roo#. 3a:le D(rovies the colu"n

    rein#orce"ent scheule. 3he rein#orce"ent o# #loor s(anrel :ea"s #or #loors ! through is

    shown in 3a:le B18. Rein#orce"ent o# #loor s(anrel :ea"s #or the 2n #loor an roo# is shown

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    in 3a:le 1112. 4olu"n rein#orce"ent steel is >!2?C23 -Grae C8 #or :illet :ars. 5ea" an

    sla: rein#orce"ent is >S3* >17?C23 an >!87?7C3 -Grae 8 #or inter"eiate grae,

    e#or"e :illet :ars. 4olu"n rein#orce"ent is arrange as shown in Fig. 28. Sla: rein#orce"ent

    is shown in the structural rawings inclue as a 4)?R9* with this re(ort.

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    8'-8"

    8'-8.5"

    8'-8.5"

    8'-8.5"

    8'-8.5"

    8'-8.5"

    13'-6"

    Roof

    7th Fl

    6th Fl

    5th Fl

    4th Fl

    3rd Fl

    2ndFl

    65'-8.5"

    8 @ 18'-9" = 150'-0" E

    FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB2 FSB1FSB8 FSB7

    FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB2 FSB1FSB8 FSB7

    FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB2 FSB1FSB8 FSB7

    FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB2 FSB1FSB8 FSB7

    FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB3 FSB2 FSB1FSB8 FSB7

    2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB2 2FSB12FSB8 2FSB7

    RSB7 RSB3 RSB3 RSB3 RSB2 RSB1RSB9 RSB8

    C1 C2 C4C3 C5 C6 C8C7 C9

    Fig. 17. South #ra"e elevation, o"itting stair tower at west en

    )rille (iers are rein#orce with ?\C longituinal :ars, \2 ties at 12?in centers, !?in

    cover. Pileca(s are 18H?8 suare :y !D?in ee( -?(ier (ileca(, H?8 :y 18H?8 :y !D?in ee(

    -2?(ier (ileca(, or 2H?C suare :y !D?in ee( -1?(ier (ileca(. 3riangular (ileca(s have eges

    2H?8 #ro" (ier centers. >ll (iers are s(ace at CH?8 centers. Pier ti(s are !.7 to 8 #t :elow

    grae, an as shown in the structural rawings.

    3he groun #loor has #ull?height "asonry in#ill walls in the north #ra"e :etween colu"n

    lines 7 an B, an (artial?height "asonry walls :etween colu"n lines 1 an 7. >:ove the 2n

    #loor there are no other sti## ele"ents :etween the colu"ns that "ight (rouce a short?colu"n

    e##ect. 3he :uiling is cla on the north an south #acaes with alu"inu" winow wall,

    co"(rising !61C?in heavy sheet glass in sliing #ra"es, an ]?in ce"ent as:estos :oar (anels

    with an orna"ental sight?o:scuring "esh o# :ake ena"el or colore vinyl. 3he east an west

    enwalls are #inishe on the insie with gy(su" wall:oar an on the outsie with stucco.

    nterior (artitions are constructe o# 76D?in gy(su" wall:oar on !?76D in "etal stus at

    1C?in centers. 4eilings in the hotel suites in the 2n through th stories are a texture coating

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    a((lie to the so##it o# the concrete sla: a:ove. >t the #irst #loor, ceilings are sus(ene

    wall:oar or acoustical ceiling tiles -2?#t gri. ((er?story hallway ceilings are sus(ene

    ceiling on 2?#t?:y??#t tee?:ar gri, ;ust ee( enough to acco""oate #luorescent #ixtures

    -a((roxi"ately 2 in.

    CB

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9

    D

    C

    B

    A

    RSB1 RSB2 RSB3 RSB3 RSB3 RSB3 RSB2 RSB1

    RSB7 RSB3 RSB3 RSB3 RSB2 RSB1RSB9 RSB8

    RSB4

    RSB6

    RSB5

    2FSB14

    RSB11

    2FSB1

    3

    RSB15

    RSB12 RB6

    RB1

    RB2

    RB3

    RB5

    RB4

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9

    D

    C

    B

    A

    2FSB1 2FSB2 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB2 2FSB1

    2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB3 2FSB2 2FSB12FSB8 2FSB7

    2FSB4

    2FSB6

    2FSB5

    2FSB13

    2FSB10

    2FSB12

    2FSB9

    2FSB