Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland...
Transcript of Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland...
Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring
Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong
We thank the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, & the Ford Foundation for their support.
Overview
• Between the decline of the liberal age in 1940s-50s and the Arab
Spring, the Arab world experienced the upsurge of two major
cultural movements:
• Pan-Arab nationalism
• Islamic fundamentalism.
• The Arab Spring is a departure from extremism:
• Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity
• No Arab political unity & decline in the political significance of the army
• The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool
• A shift in people’s political and cultural values
• Who participated in the Arab Spring: The case of Egypt?
Methodology
• Survey data available
• Collected in face-to-face interviews using paper-and-pencil instruments
• Nationally representative samples using PPS
Sample size Dates collected Oversampling Response rate
Egypt 3,496 June-Aug 2011 Coptic Christians 93%
• Survey data pending
• Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey
Egypt 1,677 Jan 2012 None
Iraq 3,000 Jan-Feb 2011 None 61%
Lebanon 3,034 March-July 2011 Druze 88%
Saudi Arabia 2,005 Jan-Feb 2011 Shi’a Muslims 73%
Methodology• Sample dispositions
Egypt
(2011)
Egypt
(2012
Iraq Lebanon Saudi
Arabia
Male 49% 52% 53% 59% 50%
University education 15% 15% 13% 28% 15%
Average age 38 40 36 35 34Average age 38 40 36 35 34
Religion: Not asked
Sunni* 40% 23% 75%
Shi’a* 31% 33% 25%
Druze 6%
Muslim (no sect spec) 86% 29%
Christian 14% 0.4% 26%
*Muslim sect was not reported in Saudi Arabia but 25% of respondents were from a
predominantly Shi’a city, and 75% were from predominantly Sunni cities
People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:
Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
59%
51%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r th
e A
rab
Sp
rin
g
25%
9%
2% 2% 3%
15%
9% 10% 9%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Freedom &
democracy
Economic
equality &
prosperity
Islamic
government
Counter
Western
influence
Part of a
Western
conspiracy
Arab unity
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r
Egypt Lebanon
% Relying “A great deal” or “Somewhat” on Satellite TV,
Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information
49%
69%
74%
62%
49%50%
60%
70%
80%
14% 14%
10%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia
Satellite TV Internet Mobile
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and Saudis
National Identity
Which one of the following best describes you?
1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all
2. I am a Muslim, above all
3. I am an Arab, above all
4. I am a Kurd, above all
5. Other
National Identity:
Egyptian Muslims
81%
50% 48%
56%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
8%
1%
48%
2%
41%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Above all, I am Egyptian Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab
2001 2011 2012
56%59%
63%
57%
40%
50%
60%
70%
National Identity:
Iraq
23%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
% Above all, I am Iraqi
National Identity:
Saudi Arabia
75%
46%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
17%
9%
46% 44%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Above all, I am Saudi Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab
2003 2011
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and SaudisReligion & Politics
1.Wishes of the people vs. Shari'a law
2.Characteristics of politicians
3.Secular politics3.Secular politics
4.Forms of government
Attitudes toward Secular Politics:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
(Forced choice, 2011)
72%
82%88%
56%
44%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
28%
18%12%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
A good govt implements only the law
of the shari'a
A good govt makes laws according to
people's wishes
Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
Attitudes toward Secular Politics
Which is better in a politician?
(Forced choice, 2011)
78%81%
86%
43%
58%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
22%19%
14%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national
interests
Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
Egyptian Muslims:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
48%
31%30%
62%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
A good government implements only
the shari'a law
(% strongly agree)
A good government makes laws
according to the people's wishes
(% strongly agree)
2000 2011
Egyptian Muslims: Attitudes toward secular politics
% Strongly agree/Agree
49%
91%
57%
93%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Egypt would be better if religion
and politics were separated
Democracy may have problems
but it's better than other forms
of govt
2011
2012
Iraq: Attitudes toward secular politics
% Strongly agree/Agree that Iraq would be a better
place if religion and politics are separated
53%
63%
69%
76%
69%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a
& in trust of religious institutions
69%
84%
46%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
31%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great
deal
2003 2011
Egyptian Muslims: Democracy vs. Strong head
of gov’t (% Very good)
68%
79%84%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2%
9%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Democratic political system Strong head of government
2001 2008 2011
Iraq: % Strongly agree with different forms of
government
59%
55%53%
40%
50%
60%
70%
30%
11%
5%
22%
11%
6%
15%12%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Democracy Islamic government Strong head of
government
Army rule
2004 Apr-06 2011
Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of
government (% Strongly agree/Agree)
58%
71%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2003 2011
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and SaudisAttitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband.
2. Men make better political leaders
than women do.than women do.
3. University education is more important for
boys than it is for girls.
Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for
gender inequality (% Strongly agree)
47%
55%
68%
60%
73%
60%
50%
60%
70%
80%
47%
16%21%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Wife must always obey her
husband
Men make better political
leaders
University education is more
important for boys
2000 2011 2012
Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality
(% Strongly agree)
64%
71%
63%
69%
42%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
29%25%
33%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
A wife should always obey
her husband
Men make better political
leaders
University education is more
important for boys
2004 2006 2011
53%
61%
44% 44%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender
inequality (% Strongly agree)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband
2003 2011
Participation in Demonstrations
against the Mubarak Regime
among Egyptian Muslims in 2011
Egyptian Muslims:
Measure of Participation• On the scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating minimum to
none participation and 10 the utmost participation,
where do you put the extent of your participation on this
scale?Participation % Participating
1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%
2 6.4%
3 5.5%
4 5.3%
5 4.9%
6 4.3%
7 5.5%
8 4.6%
9 1.7%
10 (Utmost) 1.9%
N 3005
Mean (standard deviation) 2.7 (2.56)
Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of participationCorrelation coefficients
Demographics
Male .152**
Unmarried .115**
Formative years under Mubarak .089**
Employed .138**
SES .212**
Urban area .162**
Organizational membership factor
Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008
Attitudes toward government
Trust in government -.110**
Rating of government -.057**
Sources of information
Radio .066**
Domestic TV .027
Foreign satellite TV .058**
Newspaper .212**
Internet .182**
Mobile .070**
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Correlation coefficients continued
Gender segregation
Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .039
Liberalism factor
Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .140**
Religiosity
Mosque/Church attendance .114**
Frequency of prayer -.001
Egyptian Muslims: Correlations of participation
(continued)
Frequency of prayer -.001
Identify as religious person -.049*
Importance of God in life -.042
Morality factor
Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .244**
Social-Psychological issues
Perceived control .103**
Insecurity .112**
Free will .205**
Attitudes toward the West
Cultural invasion by the West .006
Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .152**
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation
OLS Regression
Demographics
Male .092**
Unmarried .049*
Formative years under Mubarak .052*
Employed .026
SES .054*
Urban area .095**Urban area .095**
Organizational membership factor
Religious/Political/Charitable membership -.018
Attitudes toward government
Trust in government -.035
Rating of government -.016
Sources of information
Radio .035
Domestic TV .018
Foreign satellite TV -.011
Newspaper .122**
Internet/Mobile .032** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
OLS Regression continued
Gender segregation
Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .041*
Liberalism factor
Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .058**
Religiosity
Mosque/Church attendance .016
Frequency of prayer .008
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation
(continued)
Frequency of prayer .008
Identify as religious person .013
Importance of God in life -.035
Morality factor
Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .219**
Social-Psychological issues
Perceived control .092**
Insecurity .111**
Free will .143**
Attitudes toward the West
Cultural invasion by the West -.016
Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .065**
Adjusted R2 .210
** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Summary
1. Increase in national identity
2. Decline in support for the shari’a
3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)
4. Predictors of participation in the Arab Spring:
(1) Male, single, formative years under
Mubarak, urban resident, higher SECMubarak, urban resident, higher SEC
(2) Newspaper readers (Internet users)
(3) More liberal, moral, higher perceived-
control, free will, insecure
(4) Less xenophobic
Thank you!Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong