ValuEngine Valuations are Positive but the Forecasting Model is Cautious.

8/3/2019 ValuEngine Valuations are Positive but the Forecasting Model is Cautious.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

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Januar y 17, 2011 ValuEngine Valuat ions are Posi t ive but t he Forec ast ing Model

is Caut i ous.

ValuEngine shows that 74.8% of all stocks are undervalued fundamentally, but the main reasonis that the 30-Year bond yield is below 3.00%. The ValuEngine forecasting model tells a moreconservative story as only six of the 30 Dow components are rated a BUY and none areexpected to gain more than 9% over the next twelve months. Two components JP Morgan(JPM) and Travelers (TRV) ended last week with SELL ratings. The important Regional BankingIndex (BKX) is up 10.3% year to date after being down 24.6% in 2011. None of the componentsof the BKX are rated a BUY and six are rated SELL. Technically the BKX has a positive weeklychart. My analysis suggests that stocks are vulnerable, so if there is a technical breakout it ishighly likely to be a false rally similar to last year. The Dow Industrial Average ended last weekbetween my annual pivot at 12,312 and my quarterly pivot at 12,478, and an open today above12,500, which is on the down trend connecting the highs of May and July 2011, will be

considered a breakout. The yield on the 10-Year has tested my semiannual pivot at 1.903. Goldopens this week above my semiannual pivot at $1659.4. Crude oil failed at the low end of myzone of annual and semiannual risky levels at $103.58 and $104.84, but held its 50-day simplemoving average at $98.77. The euro versus the dollar hit a 52-week low at 1.2629 on Friday withmy quarterly value level at 1.2499, my monthly pivot at 1.2780 and semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

The Major Equi t y Avera ges13-Jan YTD 30-Dec 2011 Date of Oct-11 % Off % Off % Fr

Market Price Gains Price Highs Highs Lows Highs Lows Hi to

The Dow 12,422.00 1.7% 12,218.00 12,876.00 2-May-11 10,404.49 -3.5% 19.4% -19.

S&P 500 1,289.10 2.5% 1,257.60 1,370.58 2-May-11 1,074.77 -5.9% 19.9% -21.

Nasdaq 2,711.00 4.1% 2,605.00 2,887.75 2-May-11 2,298.89 -6.1% 17.9% -20.

Naz 100 (NDX) 2,372.00 4.1% 2,278.00 2,437.42 25-Jul-11 2,034.92 -2.7% 16.6% -16.

Transports 5,176.00 3.1% 5,020.00 5,627.85 7-Jul-11 3,950.66 -8.0% 31.0% -29.

Russell 2000 764.25 3.2% 740.91 868.57 2-May-11 601.71 -12.0% 27.0% -30.

Semis (SOX) 383.47 5.2% 364.44 450.79 2-May-11 322.24 -14.9% 19.0% -28.


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10-Year Note (1.865) Daily and annual value levels are 1.920 and 2.502 with weekly andsemiannual pivots at 1.880 and 1.903, and quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687,1.409 and 1.385.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1639.3) Annual and weekly value levels are $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1569.2 withsemiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.5, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1706.7 and

$1740.9.



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Nymex Crude Oil ($99.27) My semiannual and monthly value levels are $79.83 and $75.53 withmonthly, daily and weekly pivots at $99.87, $98.93 and $100.40, and semiannual and annual risky

levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.


The Euro (1.2680) Weekly, daily, quarterly and weekly value levels are 1.2506, 1.2484, 1.2499 and1.2467 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 1.2780 and 1.2980, and annual and semiannual risky

levels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.



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The Major Equi ty Averages - All daily charts are overbought and the weekly charts are

either overbought, or will be soon. To review; The Dow Industrial Average has been influenced

by my annual and quarterly pivots at 12,312 and 12,478 and has tested the down trendconnecting the highs of May and July 2011 at the 12,500 area. The other major averages havestayed below their quarterly risky levels at; 1305.4 SPX, 2777 NASDAQ, 2422 NDX, 5448 DowTransports, 829.03 Russell 2000, and 390.17 SOX. Monthly value levels lag at; 11,210 DowIndustrials, 1152.8 SPX, 2432 NASDAQ, 2185 NDX, 4443 Dow Transports, 646.71 Russell 2000,and 310.48 SOX.

Weekly Dow: (12,422) The 200-week simple moving average is 10,613 with the five-week modifiedmoving average at 12,130, my annual, weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,312, 12,430 and 12,478, andquarterly and annual risky levels at 12,796 and 14,032. The weekly chart stays positive but overboughwith a weekly close above the 5-week MMA and with overbought MOJO. The downtrend going back

to the May and July 2011 highs is being tested at 12,500..


S&P 500 (1289.1) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with weeklyand daily pivots at 1285.8 and 1295.2, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1305.4, 1363.2 and1562.9.


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NASDAQ (2711) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2670, 2432, 2012 and 1952 withmy annual pivot at 2698, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2735, 2777 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2372) Weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2341, 2300,2185, 1851 and 1743 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2401, 2422 and 2603.

Dow Transports (5176) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4443, 4407 and 3778 with weeklyand daily pivots at 5123 and 5213, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 5448, 5861 and 6111.

Russell 2000 (764.25) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 withweekly and daily pivots at 755.22 and 766.35, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 829.03, 836.15and 969.09.

The SOX (383.47) Weekly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 367.06, 310.48,269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a quarterly pivot at 390.17, and daily and annual risky levels at 394.40

and 520.61.

ValuEngine Valuation Model Stocks remain fundamentally cheap. 74.8% of all stocks are undervalued / 25.2% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th -

93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. Keep in mind that with the 30-Year bond yield below3.00% and with about 70% of stocks undervalued this market tends to top out.

All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fourteen by double-digit percentages (10.8% to 17.9%).Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribeto www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine Forecasting Model The STRONG BUYS and BUYS are mostly speculative names.1. 307 STRONG SELLS Notable symbols CS, BCS, DB and MS.2. 1649 SELLS Notable symbols C, GS and JPM.3. 3587 HOLDS4. 1254 BUYS Only 187 are projected to gain 7.5% or more over the next twelve months.5. 133 STRONG BUYS 46 trade below $10.00 / share.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=CThe December FDIC report with complete analysis ofthe Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to thehousing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.


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ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offe

to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple

long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com

(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

ValuEngine Valuations are Positive but the Forecasting Model is Cautious.

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Transcript of ValuEngine Valuations are Positive but the Forecasting Model is Cautious.