Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, 59 (1993)

Book Review

VALUE-FOCUSED THINKING: A PATH TO CREATIVE DECISION MAKING, Keeney, R. L., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992, ISBN 0-674-93 197- 1 .

Reading the majority of papers and books on multi- criteria decision analysis, you would think that most decision problems arise ready formulated with the criteria against which alternatives are to be judged neatly laid out for the decision maker. Yet one of the toughest tasks for analysts and decision makers is of turning their mess of concerns and issues into a problem which may be analysed. Ralph Keeney has been pondering problem formulation and, in particular, the task of creating and structuring attribute (criteria or objective) hierarchies for many years and this book is the distillation of his thoughts and experiences.

The title is an almost perfect description of the book‘s thesis. Keeney not only discusses and provides methodologies for constructing the attribute hierarchies, he also argues persuasively that decision makers should continually reflect on their values. When facing any decision, they should begin by refining and developing the hierarchies to the problem’s context. Only when they are comfortable with their values should they turn to identifying and considering the alternatives before them. His thesis is that by focusing first on values then on alternatives, they will be led t o more creativity in their decision making. They will tend to create better opportunities for themselves and identify a larger number of alternative strategies from which to choose. Of course, Keeney does not argue that their values should be fully and finally identified before any consideration is given to the alternatives. Any analysis oscillates back and forth between phases of refining attribute hierarchies and phases of identifying and evaluating alternatives. Each phase informs the other. However, in the words with which the book begins: ‘Values are what we care about’.

Thus the emphasis of the analysis should continually be on those.

Keeney argues his theories cogently both in the abstract and through very many case studies. This book is worth buying for its case study material alone.

One can find fault and omissions in any book, and this is no exception. Why does he stop at means- ends objective networks and not go on to a full consideration of influence diagrams? It is as if he is so focused on values that he has forgotten beliefs and uncertainty, although it is quite clear from the case studies that he has not. Why is there no discussion of the organizational context of decision making? Organizations in many ways work (or fail to work) through the coherence of the values used in the decision making. Thus the organization setting would seem central to his argument, yet it is not discussed. However, overall it is churlish to concentrate on what could be improved. There is much in this book to praise: much that will help decision analysts (whatever school they belong to) serve their clients better.

It is both an inspired and inspiring book. It is also a rarity among academic and business texts: it is a ‘damn good read’. Keeney writes well, arguing his case clearly in the abstract and illustrating it through numerous interesting and pertinent examples. I enjoyed every minute of reading his book and will refer to it many times in the future. Without hesitation I recommend it to anyone: decision analyst or decision maker; mathematician or non- mathematician; academic or practitioner; even to biographers, because Keeney describes his own decision making with remarkable candour.

SIMON FRENCH School of Computer Studies,

University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K.

01993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.