Valuation Report - JMMB Group Trinidad & Tobago · IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of...
Transcript of Valuation Report - JMMB Group Trinidad & Tobago · IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of...
Company Facts
Symbol: MASSY
Target Price: $61.14
Sector: Conglomerates
Market Cap.: $5,962,310,373.00
Issued Capital: 97,742,793
Financial Year End:
30 September
Valuation Report
January 2020 Charles Piralli Investment Analyst [email protected]
MASSY Holdings LTD (MASSY)
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT IN THE APPENDIX
Overvalued Fairly valued Undervalued
TT$64.20 TT$58.08 The Massy Group, which has been in operation since 1923, is
a diversified regional conglomerate with operations
throughout the Caribbean basin, Colombia and South Florida.
The Group’s main segments are automotive and industrial
equipment, retail and distribution, energy, financial services
and ICT.
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200,000
300,000
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MASSY Price & Volume [2019]
Volume Traded ClosingQuote
3.97
1.36 0.92 0.68
4.98
0.080
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4
6
Revenue by Country ($B)
Automotive & Industrial Equipment
Energy & Industrial
GasesITC
Other
Integrated Retail
Financial services
REVENUE BY SEGMENT
22%
10%
Peer Comparison
P/E P/B Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
Dividend Yield
MASSY 10.7 1.06 0.4% 8.3% 3.67%
AMCL 17.9 1.30 3.6% 2.3% 3.00%
GKC 15.6 1.50 4.3% 5.5% 1.71%
55%
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Company Overview & History
In 1932, Neal Engineering, led by Harry Neal, and
Massy Limited, led by Charles Massy, merged to create
Neal & Massy Engineering Company Limited. By the
early 1950s, Neal & Massy was involved mainly in
importing machinery and engineering services. By this
time, the well-established tractor department offered
industrial equipment like cranes and compressors, while
the electrical and engineering departments supplied
service and smaller items. In 1958, the company went
public and expansion continued.
The Group started business in Guyana in 1968 when its
subsidiary, Associated Industries Limited, was
incorporated. In 1988, the Group’s four companies in
Guyana were Associated Industries, Demerara Oxygen,
Transportation Services and Demerara Property
Investments. NM Services Limited was created during
the re-structuring of the company in 2000. Today, Neal
& Massy Limited is the holding company for the Guyana
Group, which comprises 6 companies: the original
Associated Industries Limited, CCS Guyana Limited;
Demerara Oxygen Company Limited; Geddes Grant
Guyana Limited; NM Services Limited and Securicor
Limited.
The late 70s marked the beginnings of Neal & Massy’s
IT and Communications business unit with the formation
of Complete Computer Systems (CCS). Other Neal &
Massy companies in the Eastern Caribbean included the
equipment company in the French West Indies
Table of Content Cover page…………………..….……1
Company Overview & History……..2 Business Model…………..………..…4 Financial Analysis……………………8 Valuation Report……………………12
Discounted Cash Flow….....12 Simple P/E Insights……..…13 Dividend Discount Model....13
Risk Factors………………..…….…13 Limitations………………………..…14 Recommendation………..…………14 Appendix...……………..……………16
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
called Tirmarc; Plantrac (an equivalent of Tracmac), and Liquid Carbonic (Barbados). Copy
Services Limited in Antigua; Office Services in Grenada and seven companies in Guyana reported
through Neal & Massy Barbados. In the early 90s, Neal & Massy acquired the Geddes Grant Group
that owned a number of companies across the region, including Brinks Barbados – a security firm.
This firm was later converted into Securicor Barbados, currently the largest security firm in
Barbados, and Neal & Massy now owns 49% of the company. In 2008, Neal & Massy acquired
the Barbados Shipping & Trading Company Limited (BS&T) which has positioned the Group as
one of the largest Caribbean corporations in the region.
Neal & Massy Jamaica was formed in 1974 when the company acquired 25% interest in Xerox
(Jamaica). In 1979, Neal & Massy purchased a Bandag re-treading plant in Jamaica and the
company became a significant contributor to the Jamaica Holding. By the late 1980s, Neal &
Massy’s operations in Jamaica included Jamaica Oxygen and Acetylene; Jamaica Carbonics; Hi
Lo (Jamaica) and Trinjam Food Processors. In 1993, all Jamaican operations were consolidated
into a single corporate entity. In 2001, Neal & Massy also acquired H.D. Hopwood and Company
which is the largest distributor of pharmaceuticals in Jamaica and also offers a diverse range of
Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) to the retail and wholesale trade. Neal & Massy Group
Jamaica was eventually wound down and all the remaining business units were restructured
according to the Trinidad and Tobago Holding Company.
In February 2006, NM Industrial Gas Holdings Limited (NMGH) re-entered the Jamaican market
by jointly acquiring, with its partner Cool Corporation Limited, the LPG and retail businesses of
Shell Company West Indies Limited.
In July 2014, Neal and Massy Group changed its name to Massy as part of a comprehensive
rebranding exercise that unified all subsidiary companies to create a strong, consistent corporate
identity. The rebranding maximised marketing efficacy by powerfully connecting the equity of
strong subsidiary brands with the corporate brand and vice versa.
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Business Model
MASSY Business Units in each Territory
[Source: MASSY Annual Report 2018]
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
MASSY earns its revenue from a number of business lines. Each business line is spread across
multiple countries and includes:
Integrated Retail [IR] which makes up 55%
of Revenue but only 40.1% of Operating Income
based on FYE 2018 statements. IR is comprised of
MASSY’s Retail Line, which is a traditional food
retailer which offers customers formats such as
supermarkets, super stores, pharmacies, home stores
and discounters. MASSY’s Distribution Line is also
captured under Integrated Retail. This business line
earns approximately 68% of its revenue from
Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados, two countries
which have been experiencing economic difficulty
in recent years with little sign of significant growth
in the near term. In response, MASSY has been
introducing more economical brands and additional
promotions in the core food basket and produce to adapt to the new consumer preferences.
MASSY has also been altering its product mix in stores, offering more non-food, Ready 2 Go and
bulk options which are generally higher margin products. The group has been investing in new
locations across numerous territories, with expansion in Guyana expected to be an especially
potent driver of growth. MASSY has also been leveraging its scale to implement shared services,
merging support functions within countries in order to reduce overheads.
Energy & Industrial Gases [E&IG] which
makes up 9.6% of Revenue but 20.2% of Operating
Income based on FYE 2018 statements. The E&IG
Business Unit comprises of energy services
companies, one oil production operation in
Trinidad and three wholly-owned industrial gas
operations in Jamaica, Trinidad and Guyana. A
50:50 joint venture with Air Products & Chemicals
Inc. in an Air Separation Unit in Pt. Lisas is
tethered to the Atlas Methanol plant providing high
purity Oxygen and Nitrogen to that facility. The
energy services companies consist of a joint
venture with Wood Plc. (Massy Wood Group Ltd.)
(MWGL) and two service companies in Trinidad
which provide a variety of mechanical, electrical,
instrumentation, insulation and fabric maintenance services, to upstream and downstream oil and
gas, and petrochemical companies in Trinidad. These services companies were consolidated in Q2
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
2019 as part of a restructuring exercise. Massy Energy Colombia S.A.S. which was acquired from
Wood Group PSN, Inc. in 2014 provides operations and maintenance, minor modifications and
other technical services to oil and gas, mining and pipeline companies in Colombia. The E&IG
Business Unit is the vehicle through which the Group’s 10 percent investment in a new 1,000,000
Tons/Year Methanol and Dimethyl Ether plant in La Brea Trinidad is being held. E&IG has been
one of MASSY’s premier growth drivers, with annualized revenue growth over the period FY
2014-2018 of 11% per annum. Going forward, the group intends to continue expansion efforts
throughout the Caribbean basin, with special emphasis on the Columbian and Guyanese markets
which are expected to exhibit strong growth in the coming years.
Automotive & Industrial Equipment [A&IE] which makes up 21.5% of Revenue and
20.1% of Operating Income based on FYE 2018
statements. This Business Unit is mainly
comprised of automotive dealerships in Trinidad
& Tobago and Columbia and a Caterpillar [CAT]
dealership. Several car rental sub-franchises are
the remaining components of the Business Unit.
The downturn in the Trinidad & Tobago
economy has had a detrimental impact to
MASSY’s business units which operate in the
country, with A&IE being no different. The
shortage of forex has necessitated that the local
businesses borrow USD from financial
institutions in order to cover supplier obligations in as timely a manner as possible. The Unit’s
strategy going forward includes additional investment and acquisitions in order to increase market
share in the Columbian market as well as seeking out suitable partners in new territories for rental
sub-franchises.
Financial Services which makes up 5.2% of Revenue but 12.9% of Operating Income based on
FYE 2018 statements. The flagship of the Financial Services Business Unit, Massy United
Insurance Ltd. (MUIL) is among the top five regional Property and Casualty insurance companies
in the Caribbean. The company operates in nineteen territories across the Caribbean through a
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
combination of branch operations and dedicated
agencies and has established a strong reputation
for customer service and responsiveness.
MASSY also operates a Money Services
business, where the primary business activity is
operating agencies for MoneyGram in Guyana
and Trinidad and Tobago and Western Union in
Barbados. On a combined basis, the group is the
largest MoneyGram Agent in the Caribbean
region. The remittance businesses are an
important source of foreign exchange for the
Group in each of the territories in which the
remittance businesses operate. In Trinidad, the
Consumer Finance business primarily provides
motor vehicle loans to customers seeking to
acquire motor vehicles, while in Barbados, the revolving credit business provides credit card
services. Over the past 5 years, the Financial Services Business Unit has been the fastest growing
Unit in the group at 24% per annum, though this rate has slowed in the past 2 years to 9% per
annum.
Information Technology &
Communication which makes up 4.9% of
Revenue but 10.1% of Operating Income
based on FYE 2018 statements. The IT&C
Business Unit provides mainly Information
and Communication Technology [ICT]
product and service solutions for a variety of
industries including the financial, energy,
education, healthcare, commercial, retail,
hospitality and government as well as image
and printing solutions. They operate in
countries such as Columbia and a range of
territories in the English speaking Caribbean,
including Trinidad & Tobago, Guyana,
Barbados, Jamaica and Antigua. The Unit
participates in segments such as e-
transactions, smart devices, Internet of Things (IoT), data analytics, and managed ICT services.
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Other Investments which makes up 4.1% of
Revenue but 9.7% of Operating Income based on
FYE 2018 statements. The Other Investments Unit
consists of subsidiaries, joint ventures and
investments that are not part of the Group’s core
Business Unit activities. This unit consists of property
companies, which own and operate properties
occupied by Massy entities and third parties and
provide real estate sales and development services.
This unit also contains non-core subsidiaries such as
Roberts Manufacturing Co. Limited and Seawell Air
Services Limited. The unit also holds the Group’s
minority investments in G4S in Trinidad and
Barbados.
MASSY has indicated that in FY 2020 it intends to provide the executives and boards of its IR,
A&IE and E&IG Business Units greater autonomy in order to build capabilities to drive innovation
and effect strategies as they will be able to devote greater focus to their unit. Group Chairman
Robert Bermudez has stated that he expects the increased autonomy will produce greater value
and growth from MASSY’s main businesses. These business units represent the group’s 3 largest
segments by both Revenue and Operating Income.
Financial Analysis
Income Statement
In 2016, Revenue fell 4% owing to the decline in global energy markets and the subsequent effect
on the group’s E&IG Business Unit. Since then, MASSY has exhibited modest growth, albeit at a
slowing rate from FY 2017 to FY 2019. This in spite of declines in the group’s largest segment,
Integrated Retail, recording year on year declines of 1% and 2% before returning to modest growth
of 0.3% in FY 2019. The increases in Revenue are largely attributable to significant growth in the
group’s Automotive, Energy and Financial Services. Financial Services in particular has recorded
annualised growth of 8% over the 3-year period.
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Operating Income has been volatile over the past 5 years, falling 18% to $740M in 2017 before
rebounding 18% to $874M in 2018. The decline in 2017 was a direct result of costs incurred due
to Hurricanes Matthew, Maria and Irma, as the insurance division was necessitated to buy
additional reinsurance following landfall of 2 of these hurricanes in the space of a week. Most
recently, Operating Income climbed 6% as improvements in the group’s ITC and Other Business
Units offset a reduction in the Financial Services Business Unit due to Hurricane Dorian. It should
be noted that the 22% improvement in ITC during FY 2019 was likely due to the sale of
subsidiaries, namely MASSY Technologies Applied Imaging [Trinidad] Limited in which the
group earned proceeds net of cash in excess of $20 MM. In addition, Chairman Bermudez
highlighted that if not for Hurricane Dorian, Financial Services was in track to record a year on
11,944.8
11,514.111,763.7
11,910.1 11,958.7
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0
10,500.0
11,000.0
11,500.0
12,000.0
12,500.0
Revenue ($MM)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Operating Income ($MM)
Automotive & Industrial Equipment Energy & Industrial Gases
ITC Other
Integrated Retail Financial service
10
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
year increase in Profit Before Tax of 30% for FY 2019.
Operating Margins have varied across the group’s business units. The group’s largest business
units, IR and A&IE have seen their margins diminish due to macroeconomic factors in Trinidad
& Tobago and Barbados. A bright spot has been the Financial Services business unit, which has
recorded year on year improvements in its operating margins, with the exceptions being FY 2017
and FY 2019 due to the impact of the hurricanes mentioned above. It should be noted that in more
recent years, the group has begun realising improved margins across all business units, as strategies
to realise operational efficiencies and divestment of lower margin subsidiaries appears to be
bearing fruit.
Non-Operating Income has been steadily improving year on year, climbing to $4.8M in 2018
following a loss of $24M in 2016. This has been a result of increasing Income from Affiliates,
which includes Massy Wood Group Ltd and Caribbean Industrial Gases Unlimited, which totalled
$29M, $69M and $79M from 2016 to 2018 respectively.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Automotive &Industrial
Equipment
Energy &Industrial
Gases
ITC Other IntegratedRetail
Financialservice
Operating Margin
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Net Income has exhibited similar volatility to Operating Income, with a significant drop of 25%
in 2017 to $376MM as a result of subpar performance by the group’s Financial Services and E&IG
Business Units, before rebounding 42% to $534MM in 2018 on the back of these same business
units. In FY 2018 and FY 2019, Net Income has been improving as the group’s more profitable
segments such as energy and financial services increased their share of total revenue and drove
improvement in Net Margin in addition to proceeds from sales of subsidiaries mentioned
previously.
Balance Sheet
MASSY maintains a good liquidity position, as evidenced by its improvements in Working Capital
year on year since 2016, as well as healthy Current and Quick Ratios, which stand at 1.85X and
1.32X respectively. The company also maintains a significant cash balance, which stood at
$2,073MM as at FYE 2019, a 27% increase over the corresponding figure from 12 months prior.
In addition, the group’s Debt to Debt plus Equity Ratio continues to decline and stands at 27.8%
as at FYE 2019, down from 30.1% as at FYE 2018.
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operating Activities has been fairly steady at approximately $1 billion through FY 2015
to FY 2017. In FY 2018 Cash from Operating Activities slipped to $736MM in 2018 as a result of
a reduction in Non-Cash Working Capital, mainly replenishment of inventories which had been
falling over the previous 2 financial years. In FY 2019 Cash from Operating Activities improved
to $806MM as a similar replenishment did not occur.
Cash from Investing Activities was -$534MM in FY 2018, in line with its historical trend
excluding a jump to -$1,055MM which was a result of the group’s increased spending on other
investments, non-controlling interest, associates and joint ventures during FY 2017 which was due
6.53
5.10
3.85
5.325.72
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Earnings Per Share ($)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
to the acquisition of Automontana Columbia. The acquisition served to double MASSY’s new car
sales in Columbia which now surpasses the corresponding figure for the Trinidad and Tobago unit.
In FY 2019, Cash from Investing Activities was $16.9MM as the group received proceeds from
the sale of subsidiaries, mainly MASSY Security Guyana Inc and MASSY Technology Applied
Imaging [Trinidad] Limited [+$102MM] in addition to increased dividends from associated
companies [+$80MM] and a reduction in financial assets [+$100MM].
In FY 2019, Cash from Financing Activities amounted to -$354MM, as the group only received
$8MM from borrowing as opposed to $176MM the previous year where Cash from Financing
Activities -$178MM, in line with FY 2016. During FY 2017, Cash from Financing Activities was
-$473MM as the company repaid approximately $269MM in debt.
Valuation Report
Five valuation models were utilized to obtain an estimated intrinsic value range for MASSY.
Firstly, a Discounted Free Cash Flow [DCF] model was utilized. Three relative valuation models
were applied, A Simple P/E Forward method which utilized the analyst’s estimate of FYE 2020
EPS, also with a Simple P/E trailing method and a Simple P/B method, all of which utilized the
average multiple over the last 5 years. Lastly, a Dividend Discount Model was utilized.
Discounted Cash Flow [DCF] Model
The discounted cash flow model is based on a detailed analysis and projection of company cash
flows and accompanying financial statements. The basis of this forecast are assumptions made
about the main value drivers for MASSY. We projected EPS to be TT$ 6.19 at the end of financial
year 2020. The key determinants of MASSY’s projected cash flows are key value drivers affecting
the firm’s 1) Revenue 2) Profit Margin 3) Working Capital Spending and 4) Fixed Capital
-2,000.0
-1,500.0
-1,000.0
-500.0
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Cash Flow ($MM)Operating Activities Investing Activities Financing Activities
13
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Spending. Intrinsic valuation on the FCFE model shows a share price of TT$68.38 vs. a market
price of TT$61.80.
Simple Price/Earnings [PE] Insights
This model is a simple yet powerful measure of value that relies on historical market sentiment of
the growth prospects of the stock. The forward method uses the market implied multiple for
MASSY for the past 5 years and the analyst’s forecast of the firm’s EPS over the next 12 months
to arrive at the firm’s ‘fair value’. The analysis shows that MASSY is Overvalued by $1.64 or
2.6%.
The trailing method uses the same implied multiple and applies it to the firm’s EPS over its 4 most
recent quarters to arrive at the firm’s ‘fair value’. The analysis shows that MASSY is Overvalued
by $5.82 or 9.4%.
Simple Price/Book [PB] Insights
Simple P/B multiple, has a similar methodology to the simple P/E. It uses the average P/B multiple
for the past 5 years then determines a fair value by using the current book value per share (BVPS).
The analysis shows that the stock is Overvalued by $0.63 or 1%.
Dividend Discount Model [DDM]
Our DDM assumes MASSY will be able to maintain its 2019 payout ratio and grow its EPS (and
hence dividends) in line with the analyst’s estimates for the firm earnings for the next 5 years and
onwards. Intrinsic valuation on the DDM shows a share price of TT$ 32.02 vs. a market price of
TT$ 61.80.
Risk Factors
Slow economic growth/recovery in Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, the territories to which
MASSY has the largest exposure could have significant impacts on the group’s revenue and
earnings growth. Reduced disposable income has a material adverse effect on the group’s
Integrated Retail business especially, as evidenced by the negative growth experienced by the
Business Unit over the previous 2 financial years.
Natural Disaster such as hurricanes and flooding are a significant risk for insurance companies
operating in the Property and Casualty insurance space. These risks are especially material for
MASSY as the Caribbean region in which it operates is especially susceptible to natural disasters,
relative to other regions around the globe.
Foreign Exchange shortages have had significant impacts on a number of the group’s Business
Unit, most notably the Automotive & Industrial Equipment Business Unit, as all inventory is
sourced via foreign suppliers that require payment in US Dollars. While there are companies within
the group which are net foreign exchange earners, these earnings are insufficient to finance the net
14
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
users within the group. As foreign exchange reserves in Trinidad and Tobago continue to be
eroded, the possibility of a currency devaluation is growing increasingly likely. MASSY’s IR and
A&IE business units in Trinidad will be seriously affected if this devaluation were to occur without
accompanying price adjustments, resulting in significant downward pressure on MASSY’s stock
price.
Supplier relationships is crucial to a number of business units within the group. A disruption to
these relationships, with specific emphasis on MASSY’s supplier to its A&IE Business Unit such
as CAT, Hyundia and Nissan would have a significant material impact on the associated business
lines.
Social unrest has been spreading throughout the Latin American region in 2019. In addition to the
persistent hardships in Venezuela, anti-government protests have been escalating in Ecuador, Chile
and most recently in Bolivia, which result in their president resigning and fleeing to Mexico. A
number of these countries share a border with Columbia, which is one of the territories which
MASSY hopes to invest further into in order to drive additional growth in the coming years. A
spill over of unrest from one of the neighbouring countries could severely impact Columbia’s
economic environment and by extension, MASSY’s local business’ performance. Another country
which MASSY views as a potent growth driver in the coming years, Guyana, is also located in
South America and shares a border with Venezuela.
Limitations
Analyst expertise - the analyst has not been following Massy group for an extended period of time.
The group is made of a large number of subsidiaries each with its own risk factors which contribute
to possible errors in the analyst’s assumption for projections.
Model Errors - DDM, FCFE, P/B and both P/E models were created in excel with the most room
for model error in the FCFE model.
Recommendation
Model Intrinsic/Fair Price
Overvalued (Undervalued) by
Weighting
Discounted Cash Flow (FCFE)
$ 68.38 (7.38) 50.0%
Multistage DDM $ 32.02 28.98 10.0%
Simple P/E Forward Valuation
$ 60.16 0.84 20.0%
Simple P/E Trailing Valuation
$ 55.98 5.02 10.0%
Simple P/B Trailing Valuation
$ 61.17 (0.17) 10.0%
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All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
Weighted average Intrinsic Value
$ 61.14
5% Above Average $ 64.20
5% Below Average $ 58.08
Our models give a range of values from $32.02 to $68.38, each with its own margin of error. The
models have been assigned various weightings as detailed in the table above. A 5% margin of error
was applied to the weighted price to give a fair value range of $58.08 - $64.20. This is compared
to the current market price of $61.80. We recommend MASSY with a MARKETPERFORM
rating.
This MARKETPERFORM rating is given on the following basis:
MASSY has been divesting a number of businesses in order to allow management to give
greater focus to more profitable business lines. This initiative has likely driven the erosion of
MASSY’s conglomerate discount over the past few years. A conglomerate discount refers to
the tendency for markets to value a diversified group of businesses less than the sum of its
parts.
MASSY’s Financial Services and Energy & Industrial Gases Business Units have been the
fastest growers of all the group’s business units. These units are also among MASSY’s highest
margin business lines, thus driving margin expansion for the group as this growth is expected
to persist in the region in the coming years.
Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados, two of the territories which MASSY has the largest
exposure to have possibly seen out the worst of their economic downturn and are expected to
return to modest growth in calendar 2020. Barbados in particular was recently upgraded 6
notches by Standard & Poor to B- with a stable outlook.
MASSY has been implementing various operational efficiency strategies such as the shared
services among lines of business in order to reduce costs. The improvement in margins across
the board [apart from the exceptional circumstances surrounding Financial Services] can
partially be credited to such initiatives. Going forward MASSY is likely to implement the
recommendations provided by Infosys related to process standardization and automation in the
new FY, further driving expense reduction and EPS growth.
Civil unrest in Venezuela has fuelled mass migration into neighbouring countries such as
Trinidad and Tobago, Columbia and Guyana, with increases in the vicinity of 5% speculated
by governments officials. The inorganic population growth in these countries is expected to
spur additional consumption in these economies, with MASSY’s Integrated Retail Business
Unit to specifically benefit from additional spending from migrants as well as loosening in the
labour market.
16
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
APPENDIX 1
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Abstract— as a part of our new portfolio strategy we are recommending strict adherence to the
following portfolio allocation definitions/recommendations.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO INDIVIDUAL ASSET IN YOUR PORTFOLIO SHOULD HAVE
A WEIGHTING GREATER THAN 10% UNLESS OTHERWISE RECOMMENDED BY YOUR
PORTFOLIO MANAGER/ INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR A SPECIFIC JMMB RESEARCH
REPORT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FOLLOWING DEFINITIONS ARE PROVIDED FOR
CLARITY.
OUTPERFORM - up to 10% of your portfolio
MARKETPERFORM - 5% of your portfolio
UNDERPERFORM - 2.5% to 4.9% of your portfolio
STRONGLY UNDERPERFORM - less than 2.5% of your portfolio
SELL - 0% of your portfolio
COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT
“Unless otherwise expressly stated, copyright or similar rights in all material in this research report
(including graphical images) is owned, controlled or licensed by Jamaica Money Market Brokers
Limited or its affiliates (JMMB) and is protected or covered by copyright, trade mark, intellectual
property law and other proprietary rights. No part of this research report or the report in its entirety
may be published, used, reproduced, distributed, displayed or copied for public or private use in
any form including by any mechanical, photographic or electronic process (electronically, digitally
on the Internet or World Wide Web, or over any network, or local area network or otherwise)
without written permission from JMMB.
No part of this research report may be modified or changed or exploited or used in any way for
derivative works, or offered for sale, or used to construct any kind of database or mirrored at any
other location without the express written permission of JMMB.
Thank you for respecting our intellectual property rights.”
APPENDIX 2
Financial Summary
17
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
18
All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB® IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.
Valuation Report
The investments referred to in this report may not be suitable for you should consult your licensed
investment advisor. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice
or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable to your individual circumstances or
otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you.