Valuation of Meghna Cenent Mills Limited

7/27/2019 Valuation of Meghna Cenent Mills Limited

1/49

Particulars 2009 2010 2011

Revenue 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730 6,097,246,745

Cost of goods sold 4,248,487,610 5,254,857,969 5,556,814,840

Gross profit 456,607,082 460,316,761 540,431,905

Administrative expense 56,958,143 85,646,603 104,615,061

Selling & distribution Overhead 123,618,281 113,588,806 167,349,494

Other income 1,081,559 14,364,857 24,558,389Operating profit 277,112,217 275,446,209 293,025,739

Financial expense 87,359,938 80,884,432 199,343,283

Revaluation loss of PPE 0 124,263,055 0

Profit before WPPF 189,752,279 70,298,722 93,682,456

Provision for contribution to WPPF 8,812,007 3,347,558 4,461,069

Net profit before tax 180,940,272 66,951,164 89,221,387

Current tax expense 48,466,039 31,998,893 26,508,356

Deferred tax income 4,212,379 15,194,354 3,806,738

Net profit after tax 136,686,612 50,146,625 66,519,769

Other comprehenvsive income

Revaluation surplus of PPE 0 97,103,022 0

Income tax on other comprehensive income 0 23,884,322 0

Total conprehensive income for the year 136,686,612 123,365,325 66,519,769

Dividend 89,857,827 94,281,779 50,609,575

Transfer to reserve 46,828,785 29,083,546 15,910,194

Depriciation 86,356,100 84,365,310 112,926,036

Interest expense


2/49

2012

6,613,816,069

5,916,346,050

697,470,019

138,400,489

196,268,669

57,391,895420,192,756

219,432,431

0

200,760,325

9,560,015

191,200,310

59,789,410

9,947,250

141,358,150

0

0

141,358,150

20,042,339

121,315,811

112,775,282


3/49

Particular 2009 2010

ASSETS

PPE 1,096,828,028 1,305,602,458

Total Non-Current Assets 1,096,828,028 1,305,602,458

Inventories 839,260,219 756,944,188

Accounts Receivable 286,714,426 433,094,292

Advances, Deposits and prepayments 893,689,327 1,052,598,449Cash and Cash Equivalent 153,252,252 62,526,731

Total Currents Assets 2,172,916,224 2,305,163,660

Total Assets 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118

Issued Share Capital 225,004,000 225,004,000

General reserve 166,000,000 166,000,000

Revalution Surplus 73,218,700

Tax holiday surplus 103,324,216 0

Retained Earnings 132,434,815 207,154,249

Shareholders' Equity 626,763,031 671,376,949

long Term loan 743,561,807 789,361,205

Liability for Gratuity 32,205,716 36,747,297

Deferred Tax liability 189,135,577 197,825,545

Total Non-Current Liability 964,903,100 1,023,934,047

Short Term bank loan 1,271,266,296 1,256,183,509

Payable for sundry expenses 255,397,871 358,379,443

Payable for goods supplied 53,488,794 182,825,462

Payable for other finance 55,169,221 31,817,035

Advance received against sales 42,755,939 86,249,673

Total Currrent Liabilities & Provisions 1,678,078,121 1,915,455,122

Total Liabilitier & Shareholders' Equity 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118

Outstanding share 22500400


4/49

2011 2012

1,221,277,710 1,116,514,072

1,221,277,710 1,116,514,072

798,290,626 440,866,589

794,337,599 1,117,420,597

1,200,376,960 1,340,617,66393,382,758 156,015,289

2,886,387,943 3,054,920,138

4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210

225,004,000 225,004,000

166,000,000 166,000,000

73,218,700 73,218,700

0 0

211,390,821 296,497,971

675,613,521 760,720,671

779,338,188 726,955,003

39,955,330 53,118,205

194,018,807 184,071,557

1,013,312,325 964,144,765

1,827,443,072 1,765,622,156

276,587,282 357,783,679

244,320,726 178,529,312

41,949,529 84,371,147

28,439,198 60,262,480

2,418,739,807 2,446,568,774

4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210


5/49

Particulars 2012 2013

Revenue 6,613,816,069 7421257190

Cost of goods sold 5,916,346,050 6731673843

Gross profit 697,470,019 689583347.3

Administrative expense 138,400,489 120920435.3

Selling & distribution Overhead 196,268,669 191599269.8

Other income 57,391,895 146755021Operating profit 420,192,756 523818663.2

Financial expense 219,432,431 110,123,940.15

Revaluation loss of PPE 0 0

Profit before WPPF 200,760,325 413694723.1

Provision for WPPF 9,560,015 90043071.7

Net profit before tax 191,200,310 323651651.4

Current tax expense 59,789,410 89004204.13

Deferred tax income 9,947,250 19396923.59

Net profit after tax 141,358,150 254044370.8


Revaluation surplus of PPE 0 0

Income tax on other comprehensive income 0 0

Total conprehensive income for the year 141,358,150 209294875.3

Dividend 25% 35,339,538 63,511,093

Transfer to reserve 106,018,613 190533278.1


6/49

2014 2015 2016 2017

8327273953 9343900866 10484641659 11764648652

7553503657 8475665598 9510408756 10671477499

773770295.7 868235268.5 974232903 1093171153

135684601.8 152249520.7 170836751.2 191693185.1

214993558.9 241240832.6 270692478.4 303739698.9

161603791.8 181783631.7 177393718.9 44348429.71584695926.7 656528546.9 710097392.3 642086698.4

119,089,678.86 129,520,202.07 141,594,337.04 155,796,554.26

0 0 0 0

465606247.9 527008344.8 568503055.2 486290144.1

101035889.1 113370754.6 127211509.8 142741999.7

364570358.8 413637590.2 441291545.5 343548144.4

100256848.7 113750337.3 121355175 94475739.71

21849242.42 24789914.38 26447256.94 20589349.92

286162752.5 324677167.3 346383627.4 269661754.6

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

236276131.4 269368038.7 285332451 202733442.4

71,540,688 81,169,292 86,595,907 67,415,439

214622064.4 243507875.5 259787720.6 202246316


7/49

Particular 2012 2013 2014

ASSETS

PPE 1,116,514,072.00 1,131,391,611.15 1,146,467,393.05

Total Non-Current Assets 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00

Inventories 440,866,589.00 943,245,719.28 1,058,400,932.85

Accounts Receivable 1,117,420,597.00 808,819,225.08 907,563,107.38

Advances, Deposits and prepayments 1,340,617,663.00 1,435,435,121.04 1,610,678,781.91Cash and Cash Equivalent 156,015,289.00 131,288,754.02 72,355,459.90

Total Currents Assets 3,054,920,138.00 3,318,788,819.41 3,648,998,282.03

Total Assets 4,171,434,210.00 4,435,302,891.41 4,765,512,354.03

Issued Share Capital 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00

General reserve 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00

Revalution Surplus 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00

Retained Earnings 296,497,971.00 487,031,249.13 701,653,313.53

Shareholders' Equity 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00

long Term loan 726,955,003.00 714,506,425.18 702,135,092.48

Liability for Gratuity 53,118,205.00 62,993,896.84 74,705,668.98

Deferred Tax liability 184,071,557.00 191,262,871.50 191,794,695.13

Total Non-Current Liability 964,144,765.00 968,763,193.53 968,635,456.59

Short Term bank loan 1,765,622,156.00 1,960,441,989.13 2,199,780,585.84

Payable for sundry expenses 156,789,120.00 401,576,912.70 450,603,024.89

Payable for goods supplied 357,783,679.00 204,867,151.52 229,878,153.07

Payable for other finance 84,371,147.00 68,515,675.55 76,880,340.99

Advance received against sales 60,262,480.00 70,417,297.99 79,014,121.66

Total Currrent Liabilities & Provisions 2,446,568,774.00 2,705,819,026.88 3,036,156,226.45

Total Liabilitier & Shareholders' Equity 4,171,434,210.00 4,435,302,891.41 4,765,512,354.03


8/49

2015 2016 2017

1,161,744,059.60 1,177,224,287.58 1,192,910,789.44

1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00

1,187,614,752.34 1,332,603,511.76 1,495,293,078.89

1,018,362,041.78 1,142,687,753.29 1,282,191,644.96

1,807,316,890.32 1,876,897,234.00 2,098,555,345.006,458,963.43 86,806,905.16 39,789,919.50

4,019,752,647.86 4,438,995,404.21 4,915,829,988.35

5,136,266,719.86 5,555,509,476.21 6,032,344,060.35

225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00

166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00

73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00

945,161,189.02 1,204,948,909.58 1,407,195,225.55

760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00

689,841,859.10 677,627,588.99 666,912,214.68

88,594,883.90 105,066,369.95 124,600,220.77

190,286,982.66 189,354,026.57 190,674,643.96

968,723,725.66 972,047,985.51 982,187,079.41

2,468,338,598.88 2,769,683,248.38 3,107,817,258.08

505,614,444.59 567,341,878.44 636,605,244.33

257,942,597.51 289,433,261.58 324,768,431.89

86,266,200.54 96,797,923.36 108,615,401.04

88,660,481.69 99,484,507.94 111,629,974.61

3,406,822,323.20 3,822,740,819.70 4,289,436,309.94

5,136,266,719.86 5,555,509,476.21 6,032,344,060.35


9/49

Particular 2009 2010

Revenue growth rate 0.21467794

Average revenue growth rate

COGS in proportion to revenue 0.902954752 0.919457098

Average proportion

Administrative ex. Proportion to revenue 0.012105632 0.014985824

Average proportion

Selling & distribution Overhead proportion to revenue 0.026273282 0.019874949

Average proportion

Growth rate of other income 12.28162125

Average of growth rate

Provision for contribution to WPPF proportion to revenue 0.019298884 0.007272292

Average proportion

Depreciation rate 0.07873258 0.064617916

Average

Growth rate of PPE 0.190343814

Average growth rate

Inventory in proportion to revenue 0.178372652 0.132444627

Average proportion

Accounts receivable in proportion to revenue 0.060937015 0.075779711

Average proportion

Advances, Deposits and prepayments proportion to revenue 0.189940774 0.184176075

Average proportion

Liability for Gratuity growth rate 0.141017855

Average growth rate

Short-term loan in proportion to revenue 0.270189312 0.219797918

Average proportion

Payable for sundry expenses proportion to revenue 0.054281133 0.062706647

Average proportion

Payable for goods supplied proportion to revenue 0.011368272 0.031989479

Average proportion


10/49

Payable for other finance proportion to revenue 0.011725422 0.005567115

Average proportion

Advance received against revenue proportion to revenue 0.009087158 0.015091345

Average proportion

Deferrred tax income proportion to current tax expense 0.086914035 0.474839989Average proportion

Deferred Tax liability proportion to tax expense 3.902435208 6.182262149

average proportion

Depriciation rate 0.07873258 0.064617916

Average

Increase of PPE

Other finance 613382954 577495064

growth rate of other finance -0.058508131

Average

Short Term bank loan 1,271,266,296 1,256,183,509

Interest expense on short term bank loan 52182355 54180153

Interest rate on short term bank loan 0.041047541 0.043130763

Average


11/49

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0.066852202 0.084721735

0.122083959 0.122084 0.122084 0.122084

0.9113646 0.894543481

0.907079983 0.90708 0.90708 0.90708

0.017157754 0.020925966

0.016293794 0.016294 0.016294 0.016294

0.027446731 0.029675556

0.02581763 0.025818 0.025818 0.025818

0.709615975 1.336956834

4.776064687 4.776065 4.776065 4.776065

0.008254637 0.013706704

0.012133129 0.012133129 0.012133129 0.012133129

0.092465485 0.101006593

0.084205643 0.084205643 0.084205643 0.084205643

-0.064586848 -0.085781995

0.01332499 0.01332499 0.01332499 0.01332499

0.13092641 0.066658429

0.12710053 0.12710053 0.12710053 0.12710053

0.13027808 0.168952475

0.10898682 0.10898682 0.10898682 0.10898682

0.196871967 0.202699568

0.193422096 0.193422096 0.193422096 0.193422096

0.087299836 0.329439777

0.185919156 0.185919156 0.185919156 0.185919156

0.299716109 0.26695967

0.264165752 0.264165752 0.264165752 0.264165752

0.045362652 0.054096406

0.054111709 0.054111709 0.054111709 0.054111709

0.040070664 0.026993389

0.027605451 0.027605451 0.027605451 0.027605451


12/49

0.006880077 0.012756803

0.009232354 0.009232354 0.009232354 0.009232354

0.004664269 0.009111605

0.009488594 0.009488594 0.009488594 0.009488594

0.143605209 0.1663714360.217932667 0.217932667 0.217932667 0.217932667

7.319156533 3.078664884

5.120629694 5.120629694 5.120629694 5.120629694

0.092465485 0.101006593

0.084205643 0.084205643 0.084205643 0.084205643

14,877,539.15 15,075,781.90 15,276,666.55

619998222 631217607

0.073599171 0.018095834

0.011062292 0.011062292 0.011062292 0.011062292

1,827,443,072 1,765,622,156

96867250 111828972

0.053006986 0.063336865

0.050130539 0.050130539 0.050130539 0.050130539


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2016 2017

0.122084 0.122084

0.90708 0.90708

0.016294 0.016294

0.025818 0.025818

4.776065 4.776065

0.012133129 0.012133129

0.084205643 0.084205643

0.01332499 0.01332499

0.12710053 0.12710053

0.10898682 0.10898682

0.193422096 0.193422096

0.185919156 0.185919156

0.264165752 0.264165752

0.054111709 0.054111709

0.027605451 0.027605451


14/49

0.009232354 0.009232354

0.009488594 0.009488594

0.217932667 0.217932667

5.120629694 5.120629694

0.084205643 0.084205643

15,480,227.98 15,686,501.86

0.011062292 0.011062292

0.050130539 0.050130539


15/49


Inventories 440,866,589.00 943,245,719.28 1,058,400,932.85

Accounts Receivable 1,117,420,597.00 808,819,225.08 907,563,107.38

Advances, Deposits and prepayme 1,340,617,663.00 1,435,435,121.04 1,610,678,781.91

Non-cash current asset 2,898,904,849 3,187,500,065 3,576,642,822

Payable for sundry expenses 357,783,679 401576912.7 450603024.9Payable for goods supplied 178,529,312 204867151.5 229878153.1

Payable for other finance 84,371,147 68515675.55 76880340.99

Advance received against sales 60,262,480 70417297.99 79014121.66

Non- STD Current liabilities 680,946,618 745,377,038 836,375,641

Net Working capital 2,217,958,231 2,442,123,028 2,740,267,182

Change in NWC 224,164,797 298,144,154


16/49

2015 2016 2017

1,187,614,752.34 1,332,603,511.76 1,495,293,078.89

1,018,362,041.78 1,142,687,753.29 1,282,191,644.96

1,807,316,890.32 1,876,897,234.00 2,098,555,345.00

4,013,293,684 4,352,188,499 4,876,040,069

505614444.6 567341878.4 636605244.3257942597.5 289433261.6 324768431.9

86266200.54 96797923.36 108615401

88660481.69 99484507.94 111629974.6

938,483,724 1,053,057,571 1,181,619,052

3,074,809,960 3,299,130,928 3,694,421,017

334,542,779 224,320,968 395,290,089


17/49

Risk-free rate 0.0837

Market return 0.17

Beta 1.1489

Cost of equity 0.18

Cost of debt 0.1675

After tax cost of debt 0.1214375

Total market value of equity 2,358,041,920.00

Book value of debt 2,492,577,159.00

Weight of equity 0.49

Weight of debt 0.51

WACC 0.15


18/49

30.12.2012 29.11.2012 31.10.2012

Monthly closing Price 104.8 113.7 118.5

DGEN 4,219.31 4,210.58 4,493.92MEG return -0.08 -0.04 -0.07

DGEN return 0.00 (0.06) (0.01)

Covariance 0.011895714

Variance of market return 0.010354509

Beta 1.148843864

Market return 0.01

Market return -yearly 0.17


19/49

30.09.2012 30.08.2012 30.07.2012 28.06.2012 31/05/2012 30/04/2012

126.9 127.7 118.6 132.5 153.5 139.8

4,544.41 4,446.87 4,159.17 4,572.88 4,734.33 5,098.90-0.01 0.08 -0.10 -0.14 0.10 0.03

0.02 0.07 (0.09) (0.03) (0.07) 0.02


20/49

29/03/2012 29/02/2012 31/01/2012 29/12/2011 30/11/2011 31/10/2011 29/09/2011

135.7 120.6 113.6 139.60 129.80 105.70 184.70

4,990.32 4,695.41 4,153.96 5,257.61 5,268.55 5,036.50 5,910.200.13 0.06 -0.19 0.08 0.23 -0.43 -0.09

0.06 0.13 (0.21) (0.00) 0.05 (0.15) (0.05)

7,484.23

5,203.08

6,352.10

6,050.85

5,758.26

6,117.23

6,459.62

6,212.00

5,910.20

5,036.50

5,268.55

5,257.61


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25/08/2011 31/07/2011 30/06/2011 31/05/2011 28/04/2011 31/03/2011

203.60 222.00 228.30 225.10 225.80 278.50

6,212.00 6,459.62 6,117.23 5,758.26 6,050.85 6,352.10-0.08 -0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.19 0.79

(0.04) 0.06 0.06 (0.05) (0.05) 0.22


22/49

28/02/2011 31/01/2011 30/12/2010 30/11/2010 31/10/2010 30/09/2010

155.70 310.80 346.00 385.90 415.70 419.90

5,203.08 7,484.23 8,290.41 8,602.44 7,957.12 7,097.38-0.50 -0.10 -0.10 -0.07 -0.01 -0.83

(0.30) (0.10) (0.04) 0.08 0.12 0.07

5,367.11

5,560.56

5,582.33

5,654.88

6,107.81

6,153.68

6,342.76

6,657.97

7,097.38

7,957.12

8,602.44

8,290.41


23/49

31/08/2010 29/07/2010 30/06/2010 31/05/ 2010 29/04/ 2010 31/03/ 2010

2,476.75 2,227.00 2090.75 1796 1,307.00 1,307.25

6,657.97 6,342.76 6,153.68 6,107.81 5,654.88 5,582.330.11 0.07 0.16 0.37 0.00 0.11

0.05 0.03 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.00


24/49

28/02/ 2010 30/01/ 2010 30/12/ 2009 26/11/ 2009 29/10/ 2009 30/09/ 2009

1,177.00 1,344.00 1304 1104.25 833.00 772.00

5,560.56 5,367.11 4,535.53 4,380.95 3,364.26 3,083.89-0.12 0.03 0.18 0.33 0.08 -0.06

0.04 0.18 0.04 0.30 0.09 0.05


25/49

31/08/ 2009 30/07/ 2009 30/06/ 2009 31/05/ 2009 30/04/ 2009

818.25 579.00 579.00 599 479.25

2,941.28 2,914.53 3,010.26 2,572.18 2,554.360.41 0.00 -0.03 0.25 -0.10

0.01 (0.03) 0.17 0.01 0.04


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31/03/ 2009 26/02/ 2009 29/01/ 2009 30-12-2008

534 531.75 407.5 386

2,446.92 2,570.96 2,570.96 2,795.340.00 0.30 0.06

(0.05) - (0.08)


27/49


EBIT 523818663.2 584695926.7 656528546.9

EBIT (1-tax rate) 379768530.8 423904546.9 475983196.5

Depreciation 114,028,054.76 1,269,465.91 1,286,381.53

Capital expenditure 14,877,539.15 15,075,781.90 15,276,666.55

Change in NWC 224,164,797 298,144,154 334,542,779

Free cashflow 26,698,140.29 109,415,145.19 124,877,369.83

Present value discount factor 0.869565217 0.756143667 0.657516232

Present value of free cashflow 23,215,774.16 82,733,569.14 82,108,897.72

Terminal value

Enterprise value 1,143,195,597.89

Cash 156,015,089

Interest-bearing debt 2,492,577,159

Equity value 3,791,787,845.89

Value per share 168.52


28/49

2016 2017 2018

710097392.3 642086698.4

514820609.4 465512856.3

1,303,522.55 1,320,891.98

15,480,227.98 15,686,501.86

224,320,968 395,290,089

273,715,891.26 53,215,373.25 53,747,526.98

0.571753246 0.497176735

156,497,949.20 26,457,445.54

772181962.1


29/49

Assumption

1. Risk free rate is 8.37%

2. The company has 27.5% tax on its income.

3. Other income is forcasted by 4 years Moving average

4. Assuming perpetual growth rate at 1%

5. Deferred tax income is proportion to current tax expense

6. Deferred tax liability is forcasted by 4 years Moving average


30/49


phoenix leasing company 11795964 9436771.2 7077578.4

Installment paymeny 2359192.8

Interest expense at 15% 1415515.68 1061636.76

lease obligation-BFICL 11697034 9357627.2 7018220.4Installment payment 2339406.8


Bay leasing 66568162 53254529.6 39940897.2

Installment paymeny 13313632.4


lease obligation-BFICL-bus 5676236 4257177 2838118

Installment payment 1419059


Other finance 631217607 638200320.2 645260278.5

Short Term bank loan 1,765,622,156.00 1,960,441,989.13 2,199,780,585.84

Interest expense at average rate 98,278,013.00 110,276,186.45

Long term loan 714,506,425.18 702,135,092.48

Financial expense 110,123,940.15 119,089,678.86

Cost of debt 0.1675


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2015 2016 2017

4718385.6 2359192.8 0

707757.84 353878.92

4678813.6 2339406.8 0

795398.312 397699.156 0

26627264.8 13313632.4 0

3994089.72 1997044.86 0

1419059 0 0

283811.8 0 0

652398336.1 659615357 666912214.7

2,468,338,598.88 2,769,683,248.38 3,107,817,258.08

123,739,144.40 138,845,714.10 155,796,554.26

689,841,859.10 677,627,588.99 666,912,214.68

129,520,202.07 141,594,337.04 155,796,554.26


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Particulars 2009 2010 2011 2012

Revenue 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730 6,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

Cost of goods sold 4,248,487,610 5,254,857,969 5,556,814,840 5,916,346,050

Gross profit 456,607,082 460,316,761 540,431,905 697,470,019

Administrative expense 56,958,143 85,646,603 104,615,061 138,400,489

Selling & distribution Overhead 123,618,281 113,588,806 167,349,494 196,268,669

Other income 1,081,559 14,364,857 24,558,389 57,391,895Operating profit 277,112,217 275,446,209 293,025,739 420,192,756

Financial expense 87,359,938 80,884,432 199,343,283 219,432,431

Revaluation loss of PPE 0 124,263,055 0 0

Profit before WPPF 189,752,279 70,298,722 93,682,456 200,760,325

Provision for contribution to WPPF 8,812,007 3,347,558 4,461,069 9,560,015

Net profit before tax 180,940,272 66,951,164 89,221,387 191,200,310

Current tax expense 48,466,039 31,998,893 26,508,356 59,789,410

Deferred tax income 4,212,379 15,194,354 3,806,738 9,947,250

Net profit after tax 136,686,612 50,146,625 66,519,769 141,358,150


Revaluation surplus of PPE 0 97,103,022 0 0

Income tax on other comprehensive inco 0 23,884,322 0 0

Total conprehensive income for the ye 136,686,612 123,365,325 66,519,769 141,358,150

Dividend 89,857,827 94,281,779 50,609,575 20,042,339

Transfer to reserve 46,828,785 29,083,546 15,910,194 121,315,811

Depriciation 86,356,100 84,365,310 112,926,036 112,775,282


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7421257190 8327273953 9343900866 10484641659 11764648652

6731673843 7553503657 8475665598 9510408756 10671477499

689583347.3 773770295.7 868235268.5 974232903 1093171153

120920435.3 135684601.8 152249520.7 170836751.2 191693185.1

191599269.8 214993558.9 241240832.6 270692478.4 303739698.9

146755021 161603791.8 181783631.7 177393718.9 44348429.71523818663.2 584695926.7 656528546.9 710097392.3 642086698.4

110,123,940.15 119,089,678.86 129,520,202.07 141,594,337.04 155,796,554.26

0 0 0 0 0

413694723.1 465606247.9 527008344.8 568503055.2 486290144.1

90043071.7 101035889.1 113370754.6 127211509.8 142741999.7

323651651.4 364570358.8 413637590.2 441291545.5 343548144.4

89004204.13 100256848.7 113750337.3 121355175 94475739.71

19396923.59 21849242.42 24789914.38 26447256.94 20589349.92

254044370.8 286162752.5 324677167.3 346383627.4 269661754.6

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

209294875.3 236276131.4 269368038.7 285332451 202733442.4

63,511,093 71,540,688 81,169,292 86,595,907 67,415,439

190533278.1 214622064.4 243507875.5 259787720.6 202246316


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Particular 2009 2010 2011 2012

ASSETS

PPE 1,096,828,028 1,305,602,458 1,221,277,710 1,116,514,072

Total Non-Current Assets 1,096,828,028 1,305,602,458 1,221,277,710 1,116,514,072

Inventories 839,260,219 756,944,188 798,290,626 440,866,589

Accounts Receivable 286,714,426 433,094,292 794,337,599 1,117,420,597

Advances, Deposits and prepay 893,689,327 1,052,598,449 1,200,376,960 1,340,617,663Cash and Cash Equivalent 153,252,252 62,526,731 93,382,758 156,015,289

Total Currents Assets 2,172,916,224 2,305,163,660 2,886,387,943 3,054,920,138

Total Assets 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118 4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210

Issued Share Capital 225,004,000 225,004,000 225,004,000 225,004,000

General reserve 166,000,000 166,000,000 166,000,000 166,000,000

Revalution Surplus 73,218,700 73,218,700 73,218,700

Tax holiday surplus 103,324,216 0 0 0

Retained Earnings 132,434,815 207,154,249 211,390,821 296,497,971

Shareholders' Equity 626,763,031 671,376,949 675,613,521 760,720,671

long Term loan 743,561,807 789,361,205 779,338,188 726,955,003

Liability for Gratuity 32,205,716 36,747,297 39,955,330 53,118,205

Deferred Tax liability 189,135,577 197,825,545 194,018,807 184,071,557

Total Non-Current Liability 964,903,100 1,023,934,047 1,013,312,325 964,144,765

Short Term bank loan 1,271,266,296 1,256,183,509 1,827,443,072 1,765,622,156

Payable for sundry expenses 255,397,871 358,379,443 276,587,282 357,783,679

Payable for goods supplied 53,488,794 182,825,462 244,320,726 178,529,312

Payable for other finance 55,169,221 31,817,035 41,949,529 84,371,147

Advance received against sales 42,755,939 86,249,673 28,439,198 60,262,480

Total Currrent Liabilities & Pro 1,678,078,121 1,915,455,122 2,418,739,807 2,446,568,774

Total Liabilitier & Shareholders 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118 4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1,131,391,611.15 1,146,467,393.05 1,161,744,059.60 1,177,224,287.58 1,192,910,789.44

1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00 1,116,514,072.00

943,245,719.28 1,058,400,932.85 1,187,614,752.34 1,332,603,511.76 1,495,293,078.89

808,819,225.08 907,563,107.38 1,018,362,041.78 1,142,687,753.29 1,282,191,644.96

1,435,435,121.04 1,610,678,781.91 1,807,316,890.32 1,876,897,234.00 2,098,555,345.00131,288,754.02 72,355,459.90 6,458,963.43 86,806,905.16 39,789,919.50

3,318,788,819.41 3,648,998,282.03 4,019,752,647.86 4,438,995,404.21 4,915,829,988.35

4,435,302,891.41 4,765,512,354.03 5,136,266,719.86 5,555,509,476.21 6,032,344,060.35

225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00 225,004,000.00

166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00 166,000,000.00

73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00 73,218,700.00

- - - - -

487,031,249.13 701,653,313.53 945,161,189.02 1,204,948,909.58 1,407,195,225.55

760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00 760,720,671.00

714,506,425.18 702,135,092.48 689,841,859.10 677,627,588.99 666,912,214.68

62,993,896.84 74,705,668.98 88,594,883.90 105,066,369.95 124,600,220.77

191,262,871.50 191,794,695.13 190,286,982.66 189,354,026.57 190,674,643.96

968,763,193.53 968,635,456.59 968,723,725.66 972,047,985.51 982,187,079.41

1,960,441,989.13 2,199,780,585.84 2,468,338,598.88 2,769,683,248.38 3,107,817,258.08

401,576,912.70 450,603,024.89 505,614,444.59 567,341,878.44 636,605,244.33

204,867,151.52 229,878,153.07 257,942,597.51 289,433,261.58 324,768,431.89

68,515,675.55 76,880,340.99 86,266,200.54 96,797,923.36 108,615,401.04

70,417,297.99 79,014,121.66 88,660,481.69 99,484,507.94 111,629,974.61

2,705,819,026.88 3,036,156,226.45 3,406,822,323.20 3,822,740,819.70 4,289,436,309.94

4,435,302,891.41 4,765,512,354.03 5,136,266,719.86 5,555,509,476.21 6,032,344,060.35


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Liquidity Ratio

1) Current ratio

Year 2009 2010

C.A 2,172,916,224 2,305,163,660

C.L 1,678,078,121 1,915,455,122

Current ratio 1.29488383 1.2034548

2) Acid test ratio

Year 2009 2010

C.A 2,172,916,224 2,305,163,660

inventory 839,260,219 756,944,188

C.L 1,678,078,121 1,915,455,122

quick ratio 0.794752037 0.808277602

Activity ratio1) Assets turnover

Year 2009 2010sales 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730

Total asset 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118

Asset turnover ratio 1.438979421 1.582814988

2) Receivable turnover

Year 2009 2010

sales 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730

account receivable 286,714,426 433,094,292

Receivable turnover 16.41038701 13.1961442

AR collection period 21.93732541 27.28069613

3) Inventory turnover

Year 2009 2010

COGS 4,248,487,610 5,254,857,969

inventory 839,260,219 756,944,188

inventory turnover ratio 5.062181566 6.942200036

inventory collection period 71.11558431 51.85675984

Leverage ratio1) Debt to equity ratio

Year 2009 2010

Total debt 2,014,828,103 2,045,544,714

Total equity 626,763,031 671,376,949D/E ratio 3.214656901 3.046790208

2) Time interest earned ratio

Year 2009 2010

EBIT 626,765,037 671,378,956

interest expence 87,359,938 80,884,432

Time interest earned ratio 7.174513297 8.300471912


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Profitability ratio

Gross profit ratio

Year 2009 2010

gross profit 456,607,082 460,316,761

sales 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730

GP ratio 0.097045248 0.080542902

9.704524816 8.054290249

Net profit ratio

Year 2009 2010

Net profit 136,686,612 50,146,625

sales 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730

Net profit ratio 0.029050768 0.008774294

2.905076751 0.877429429

Return on Equity

Year 2009 2010

Net income 136,686,612 50,146,625shareholder's equity 626,763,031 671,376,949

ROE 0.218083399 0.074692205

21.80833987 7.469220544

Return on Assets

Year 2009 2010

Net profit 136,686,612 50,146,625

Total asset 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118

ROA 0.041803457 0.013888085

4.180345662 1.388808451

Market ratios of 31st december 2012Price to earnings ratio

price per share

EPS

P/E ratio

Market to book value ratio

Market value of stock

Book value of stock

Market to book value ratio


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2011 2012

2,886,387,943 3,054,920,138

2,418,739,807 2,446,568,774

1.193343713 1.248654921

2011 2012

2,886,387,943 3,054,920,138

798,290,626 440,866,589

2,418,739,807 2,446,568,774

0.863299686 1.068457007

2011 20126,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210

1.48435809 1.585501709

2011 2012

6,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

794,337,599 1,117,420,597

7.675888379 5.918824198

46.90010879 60.82289116

2011 2012

5,556,814,840 5,916,346,050

798,290,626 440,866,589

6.96089201 13.41981043

51.71750969 26.82601232

2011 2012

2,606,781,260 2,492,577,159

675,613,521 760,720,6713.858391194 3.276599748

2011 2012

675,615,528 420,192,756

199,343,283 219,432,431

3.389206388 1.914907264


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2011 2012

540,431,905 697,470,019

6,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

0.0886354 0.105456519

8.863540014 10.54565189

2011 2012

66,519,769 141,358,150

6,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

0.010909804 0.02137316

1.090980434 2.137316014

2011 2012

66,519,769 141,358,150675,613,521 760,720,671

0.098458315 0.18582136

9.845831519 18.58213604

2011 2012

66,519,769 141,358,150

4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210

0.016194056 0.033887182

1.619405634 3.388718193

5.216874784

104.8 21.80833987

6.28

16.68789809

2,358,041,920

225,004,000

10.48


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Analysis of cashflo


EBIT 275,446,209 293,025,739 420,192,756

EBIT (1-tax rate) 199698501.5 212443660.8 304639748.1

Depreciation 84,365,310 112,926,036 112,775,282

Capital expenditure 208,774,430 -84,324,748 -104,763,638

Change in NWC -29,486,831 618,343,134 16,249,781

Free cashflow 104,776,213 -208,648,689 505,928,887

operating cashflow 293,139,418 -451,169,652 204,432,431

year 2010 2011 2012

Free cashflow 104,776,213 -208,648,689 505,928,887

operating cashflow 293,139,418 -451,169,652 204,432,431

In 2011, payment against expenses and creditors increased by

-800,000,000

-600,000,000

-400,000,000

-200,000,000

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

2010


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Payment against interest also increased by

In 2012, cash receipt from customer and other income increased by


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Inventories 839,260,219 756,944,188 798,290,626

Accounts Receivable 286,714,426 433,094,292 794,337,599

Advances, Deposits and prepayments 893,689,327 1,052,598,449 1,200,376,960

Non-cash current asset 2,019,663,972 2,242,636,929 2,793,005,185

Payable for sundry expenses 255,397,871 358,379,443 276,587,282

Payable for goods supplied 53,488,794 182,825,462 244,320,726

Payable for other finance 55,169,221 31,817,035 41,949,529

Advance received against sales 42,755,939 86,249,673 28,439,198

Non- STD Current liabilities 406,811,825 659,271,613 591,296,735

Net Working capital 1,612,852,147 1,583,365,316 2,201,708,450Change in NWC -29,486,831 618,343,134

0.464659

2011 2012

operating cashflo

Free cashflow


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1.39413

0.114055


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2012

440,866,589

1,117,420,597

1,340,617,663

2,898,904,849

357,783,679

178,529,312

84,371,147

60,262,480

680,946,618

2,217,958,23116,249,781


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Du-Pont analysis

ROE

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012

EBIT 277,112,217 275,446,209 293,025,739 420,192,756

Net sales 4,705,094,692 5,715,174,730 6,097,246,745 6,613,816,069

Total Assets 3,269,744,252 3,610,766,118 4,107,665,653 4,171,434,210

EBT 180,940,272 66,951,164 89,221,387 191,200,310

Net income 136,686,612 50,146,625 66,519,769 141,358,150Equity 626,763,031 671,376,949 675,613,521 760,720,671

ROE 0.218083399 0.074692205 0.098458315 0.18582136

Sensitivity analysis

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net profit ratio 0.029050768 0.008774294 0.010909804 0.02137316

Asset turnover ratio 1.438979421 1.582814988 1.48435809 1.585501709

ROA 0.041803457 0.013888085 0.016194056 0.033887182

Leverage 5.216874784 5.378150268 6.07990445 5.48352946

ROE 0.218083399 0.074692205 0.098458315 0.18582136

Sensitivity with Net margin

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net profit ratio 0.029050768 0.008774294 0.010909804 0.02137316Asset turnover ratio 1.438979421 1.438979421 1.438979421 1.438979421

ROA 0.041803457 0.012626029 0.015698984 0.030755538

Leverage 5.216874784 5.216874784 5.216874784 5.216874784

ROE 0.218083399 0.065868412 0.081899633 0.160447789

%change in ROE -0.697966868 0.243382542 0.959078227

mean 0.504493901

SD 0.831079366


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Coverance 1.647352652

sensitivity with asset turnover

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net profit ratio 0.029050768 0.029050768 0.029050768 0.029050768Asset turnover ratio 1.438979421 1.582814988 1.48435809 1.585501709

ROA 0.041803457 0.04598199 0.043121742 0.046060042

Leverage 5.216874784 5.216874784 5.216874784 5.216874784

ROE 0.218083399 0.239882285 0.224960727 0.240289469

%change in ROE 0.099956653 -0.062203668 0.068139635

S.D 0.085924064

Mean 0.10589262

coverance 0.811426367

sensitivity with leverage

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net profit ratio 0.029050768 0.029050768 0.029050768 0.029050768

Asset turnover ratio 1.438979421 1.438979421 1.438979421 1.438979421

ROA 0.041803457 0.041803457 0.041803457 0.041803457

Leverage 5.216874784 5.378150268 6.07990445 5.48352946

ROE 0.218083399 0.224825271 0.254161022 0.229230486

%change in ROE 0.030914195 0.130482442 -0.098089533

S.D 0.114601444Mean 0.063307104

coverance 1.810246198


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Analysis of sustainable growt

The sustainable groth rate=

year 2009 2010 2011 2012

ROE 0.218083 0.074692 0.098458315 0.185821

Retantion ratio(b) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

(ROE*b) 0.163563 0.056019 0.073843736 0.139366

1-(ROE*b) 0.836437 0.943981 0.926156264 0.860634

The sustainable groth rate 0.195547 0.059344 0.079731401 0.161934

Without external equity financing, while maintaining a constant debt-equity ratio, the company can extend

year The sustainable groth rate

2009 0.195546659

2010 0.059343528

2011 0.079731401

2012 0.161934136

)*(1

*

bROE

bROE


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h

at a maximum rate of sustainability growh of at

Valuation of Meghna Cenent Mills Limited

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