Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management with Mortgage- Backed Security.
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Transcript of Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management with Mortgage- Backed Security.
Valuation and Portfolio Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management with Risk Management with
Mortgage-Backed SecurityMortgage-Backed Security
1. Simulate term structure of interest rates
2. Prepayment model 3. Calculate cash flows 4. Calculate OAS 5. Total return 6. Holding period 7. Construct portfolio by MAD model
Framework of the valuationFramework of the valuation Phase 1 Generate arbitrage free interest rate scenario Phase 2 Generate cash flows for each interest
rate scenario Phase 3 compute
NPV 、 duration 、 convexity……
PricingPricing Monte Carlo simulation of the term
structure which is used to generate paths of risk free rates
Generate security cash flows for each path
Compute and average the present value of discounted cash flow
HoweverHowever ,,
Most fixed income securities cannot be priced using the riskless discount rates implied by the Treasury yield curve
Price of the security has to reflect the credit , liquidity , default , and prepayment risks
Option-Adjusted Premia (OOption-Adjusted Premia (OAP)AP)
Multiplicative adjustment factor for the Treasury rates that will equate today’s (observed) market price with the fair price obtained by computing the expected present value of the cash flows
Option-adjusted price of the security
but , does not depend only on the state σ , but also on the history of interest rates from t=0 to t=τ that pass through this state
Duration and ConvexityDuration and Convexity
The sensitivity of the computed prices to changes in the term structure
How to use Monte Carlo simulations to calculate option-adjusted duration and convexityStep 0 : use equation(2) to compute the oap(ρj)
Step 1 : Shift the term structure by –50 basis points and recalibrate the stochastic process of interest ratesStep 2 : Sample interest rate paths { }
from the stochastic process calibrated in step 1 , and use the security cash flow projection model to compute option-adjusted prices :
Step 3 : Shift the term structure by +50 basis points and recalibrate the stochastic process of interest ratesStep 4 : Sample interest rate paths { }
from the stochastic process calibrated in step 3 , and use the security cash flow projection model to compute option-adjusted prices :
Step 5 : option-adjusted duration of the
security
option-adjusted convexity
100
jj
j
pp
2
0
50
2 jjj
j
PPP
Holding Period ReturnsHolding Period Returns
jo
sj
sjs
j P
VFR
For shorter time horizons the distribution is highly asymmetric
Average price of the security converges to par , as it should towards its maturity
Portfolio Risk Portfolio Risk Management Management TechniquesTechniques
Indexation – passive portfolio managers
the performance measure of such a portfolio is the difference in return between the portfolio and the index , And this difference has to be very small
Liability payback — insurance and pension fund
construct a portfolio of MBS that will pay the future stream of liabilities
Debt issuance — government agencies
ensure that the payments against the issued debt will be met from the available assets , irrespectively of the timing of cash flows and fluctuations in interest rates
Classification of Classification of Portfolio Management Portfolio Management
ModelsModels 1. Static Model 2. Single-Period, Stochastic 3. Multiperiod, Dynamic, and Stochastic Model
Static Model : Duration Static Model : Duration MatchingMatching
Assume : unlimited borrowing is allowed.
0
1
1
Minimize
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1
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1
0
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tt
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Based on Mean-Variance Model Static models hedge against small chang
es from the current state of the world. Advantage : (1) simple (2) the least cost Disadvantage : Too simplistic with the increased volatility of the term structure.
Stochastic Model : Stochastic Model : Capturing CorrelationsCapturing Correlations
The model recognizes the volatility of MBS price, and the correlation of prices in a portfolio, and develops the tradeoffs between return and volatility.
Based on Mean-absolute deviation (MAD) )()( RERERw
Model 1
Jjux
x
xRts
xRRERw
jj
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Jjjj
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allfor 0
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Minimize
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A MAD model is suitable for the fixed- income securities with embedded options since they exhibit highly asymmetric distributions of return.
Jjux
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xR
SsxRRy
SsxRRyts
yjS
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allfor 0
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,
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,..
Model 2
A Multiperiod, Dynamic Model : A Multiperiod, Dynamic Model : Stochastic OptimizationStochastic Optimization Based on MAD Model. More flexible than previous two mode
ls. Consider transaction cost and include
scenarios not only of interest rate but also of prepayments, spread, risk premia and the like.
ApplicationApplicationss
Immunization of an Insurance Liability StreamCost of portfolio by using Treasuries Cost of portfolio by using Treasuries onlyonly(saving)(saving)
$166,163,861.$166,163,861.00000.00%0.00%
Cost of portfolio by using up to 25% Cost of portfolio by using up to 25% MBSMBS(saving)(saving)
$152,933,690.$152,933,690.00007.92%7.92%
Cost of portfolio by using up to 50% Cost of portfolio by using up to 50% MBSMBS(saving)(saving)
$142,529,529.$142,529,529.000016.58%16.58%
Cost of portfolio by using up to 100% Cost of portfolio by using up to 100% MBSMBS(saving)(saving)
$137,489,656.$137,489,656.000021.07%21.07%
Cost of mixed U.S. Treasury-MBS Cost of mixed U.S. Treasury-MBS portfolioportfolio(saving)(saving)
$136,124,130.$136,124,130.000022.07%22.07%
Exhibit 3 : Performance of Immunize and MAD Portfolios
100% MBS portfolio
Mixed Portfolio
Model Exp. Exp. ReturnReturn
Std. Std.
Dev.Dev.Exp. Exp. ReturReturnn
Std. Std. Dev.Dev.
ImmunizedMAD(equal risk)MAD(equal return)
10.46910.78310.469
0.4060.4050.234
10.44810.69210.488
0.2930.2930.206
Tracking a Mortgage Index
A Mad model was develop to track the Salomon Index of mortgage-backed securities.
The index consists of a representative of all traded fixed-rate, passthrough securities, issued by FNMA, GNMA and FHLMC.
Tracking cost is very high.