Valua%on of University Startupsncet2.org/images/valuation/ValuationSlides.pdfvI have heard it said...

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Valua%on of University Startups Panel Discussion with: Moderator: Bob Hisrich, PhD, Kent State University Helena Wisniewski, PhD, University of Alaska, Anchorage Gary Gibbons, PhD Thunderbird School of Global Management Steve Roberts, Kent State University Director, Technology CommercializaHon

Transcript of Valua%on of University Startupsncet2.org/images/valuation/ValuationSlides.pdfvI have heard it said...

Page 1: Valua%on of University Startupsncet2.org/images/valuation/ValuationSlides.pdfvI have heard it said that: Business valua+on is more art than science.If this is true, then startup valuaon

Valua%on of University Startups

PanelDiscussionwith:• Moderator:BobHisrich,PhD,KentStateUniversity

• HelenaWisniewski,PhD,UniversityofAlaska,Anchorage

• GaryGibbons,PhDThunderbirdSchoolofGlobalManagement

• SteveRoberts,KentStateUniversityDirector,TechnologyCommercializaHon

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Valuing University Startup Companies

•  ThreeacceptedvaluaHonmethods-

•  MarketApproach.LookatsimilartransacHonsinopenmarkets.

•  CostApproach.DeterminethevaluebycalculaHngtheamountofmoneyrequiredtorecreatetheproperty.

•  IncomeApproach.Howmuchincomecanthiscompanygenerateoverthelifeofthecompany?

Intheory,thisisfarandawaythebestmethod.

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Valuing Startup Companies- Pre-Revenue

• It’sHard!

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Valuing Startup Companies- The Balance Sheet

•  BalanceSheet•  Assets-

•  LicenseoropHontolicenseuniversitytechnology(usuallyuntestedtechnology)•  SmartpeoplewithaStory(probablythesourceofanyrealvalue)•  Friendsandfamily•  Somelocaloruniversityentrepreneurialecosystem

•  LiabiliHes-•  LiUleornocashoraccesstocapital•  LiUleornomanagementexperience•  Limitedunderstandingofthemarket•  Regulatoryhurdles•  Lotsofmouthstofeed•  AngryandaggressivecompeHtors

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Valuing Startup Companies- Beware of Hockey S%cks

Spendinga$1forEvery$1ofRevenue-Notarecipeforsuccess

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Valuing Startup Companies- Why it is important to get the value correct •  Iftheseed-stagevaluaHonistoohigh…

•  ThefinancialcontribuHonisundervaluedandtooliUlestockreceivedbyinvestors•  Easierforsmartmoneytowalkaway•  SeedroundsHmingcanbesignificantlyextendedandahigherlikelihoodofadownroundlater•  Problemsifthecompanymissesanimportantmilestone

•  Iftheseed-stagevaluaHonistoolow…•  EntrepreneursarelessmoHvated•  IncreaseddiluHona]ermulHpleroundsoffunding

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Valuing Pre-Revenue Startup Companies- 3 handy methods • VentureCapitalMethod

•  ScorecardMethod

• BerkusMethod

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Valuing Startup Companies- Venture Capital Method • Post-moneyValuaHon=TerminalValue÷AnHcipatedROI

•  Where-TerminalValueisanHcipatedsellingpriceofthecompanyin5to8years•  AnHcipatedROI10to30X

•  Example-companyneeds$1millioncashandexpectedtosellfor$50million.Investorsdemand20%ROI

$50,000,00020=$2,500,000.Less$1millioninvestment=$1.5millionPre-money valuaHon.

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Valuing Startup Companies- Scorecard Method

Criteria Weigh*ng ComparisonAdjustedWeigh*ngEntrepreneur,Team,Board 30% SizeofOpportunity 25% Product/Technology 15% Compe**veEnvironment 10% Sales/Marke*ng 10% NeedforMoreFinancing 5% Other 5%

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Valua%on of Startup Companies- Berkus Method

Fora“perfect”idea,possibilityof$2to$2.5millionpre-moneyenterprisevaluaHon

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Valua&onofEarlyStageStartups–ArtorScience?

Dr.HelenaS.WisniewskiViceProvostforResearch&GraduateStudies

UniversityofAlaskaAnchorage

Page 12: Valua%on of University Startupsncet2.org/images/valuation/ValuationSlides.pdfvI have heard it said that: Business valua+on is more art than science.If this is true, then startup valuaon

v Ihavehearditsaidthat:Businessvalua+onismoreartthanscience.Ifthisistrue,thenstartupvalua1onisindomainofthear1st.

v Buttheissueisthatyouneedtoputavalueofyourstartuptoraisemoney,andinvestorsneedtoputvalueontheirinvestmentstogenerateliquidity.

v Ifyouhavesoldahouseyouknowthatyoutakecertainfactorsintoaccount:loca1on,salesofcomparablehousesinyourarea,upgradesetc.,butintheenditisworthwhatsomeonewillpayforit.

•  Similarforvalua1onofstartups,inpar1cular,earlystagepre-moneyvalua1ons.

v Therearepercep1onsandgeneralrulesofthumbandsomemethodsthatIwillshare.Theseincludepercep1onsbasedonmyexperiencesfromastartuppointofview,andfromexperienceswithinvestorsfromtheirpointofview-andwheredotheyconverge?

ArtorScience?

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v  WhenIformedmyfirststartupinbiometrics,Isoughtguidancefromaco-founderoftheTitanCorp.,whomIhadworkedfor.

v  Hetoldmesomegeneralrulestodeterminevalua1onthatwerepointsthatinvestors

willconsiderwhendecidingtoinvestornotthatincluded:•  IPporGolio.•  Prototypedeveloped.•  Customers–orleIersofsupportthatsaytheywillbuyitonceproductisavailable.•  Needfortheproduct–nicetohaveormusthave.•  Financialprojec1ons–marketsize.

•  Howlongbeforeitisprofitable.•  Breakevenpoint.

•  Exitstrategy.•  StrongManagementteam.

v  Alsodoacapitaliza&ontabletodeterminehowmuchyouneednowtogettonextlevel,ifyouwillneedmoremoneybeyondtheseedlevel,andhowmuchdoyouwanttoendupwithasthefounder.

BythewayIconvincedhimthatIhadthesepoints,weagreedona$2Mvalua=on,andhebecamemyfirstinvestor.IthenusedthemforstartupsIformedatStevensandUAA.

SomeGeneralRulesofThumb

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TheDavidBerkusMethodIfExists:

AddtoCompanyValue

upto:SoundIdea(basicvalue) $1/2million

Prototype(reducingtechnologyrisk) $1/2million

QualityManagementTeam(reducingexecu1onrisk) $1/2million

Strategicrela1onships(reducingmarketrisk) $1/2million

ProductRolloutorSales(reducingproduc1onrisk) $1/2million

Total:$1.5M

v Thereisnoperfectmethodology,althoughsomepopularmethodsusedbyangelinvestorsandVCsare:•  DaveBerkusmethod.•  ScoreCardmethod.•  RiskFactormethod.•  VCmethod.

NoPerfectMethodology

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v  ScoreCardMethod–usescomparables-needtounderstandhowmuchsimilarcompaniesinyourindustry/geographyareworth.

•  Thefirststep:determinetheaveragepre-moneyvalua1onofthepre-

revenuecompaniesinyourregionandbusinesssectorofyourcompany.Varieswiththeeconomyandthecompe11veenvironmentforstartupventureswithinaregion.

•  Thenextstepistocompareyourcompanytoyourpercep1onofsimilardealsdoneinyourregion,consideringthefollowingfactors:

o  StrengthoftheManagementTeam 0–30%o  SizeoftheOpportunity 0–25%o  Product/Technology 0–15%o  Compe11veEnvironment 0–10%o  Marke1ng/SalesChannels/Partnerships 0–10%o  NeedforAddi1onalInvestment 0–5%o  Other 0–5%

ScoreCardMethod

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v Whatcanyouexpectinthesizeofinvestment?

•  Onaverageearlyseedaround$1Mto$5M.•  However,ifyoudonothaveallthenecessaryvalida1onelements,butthe

investorlikeswhatyoudohave,theninvestormightprovide$50-100Ktoprovevalida1on–theyget20%withrightoffirstrefusaltoprovidenexttrancheoffunding.

v Sohowmuchdoyougiveup?•  %variesbycase,butonaveragepremoneyinvestorcaptures15%to20%.v Alsonotethat:

•  Agoodmanagementteamismorevaluedthanagoodtechnology.

HowMuchCanyouExpect?

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v  Supposethatyouhaveabigideabutdon’tknowhowbig,thenconsidera

SAFEnote-“simpleagreementforfutureequity”–unlikeaconver1blenoteitisnotdebt.

•  ASAFEisanagreementbetweenacompanyandaninvestor.•  Inexchangeforthemoney,theinvestorreceivestherighttopurchase

stockinafutureequityround(whenoneoccurs)subjecttocertainparameterssetinadvanceintheSAFE.

•  Ididonerecentlyforastartup.

v  AReferencestoorganizeyourvalida&onthoughts:•  Altainnova&on.com–BigIdeaAnaly&csgivesa5stepmethodtoassessnewideasbyansweringcri1calques1onsupfrontforanewtechnology.Processhelpsyouunderstandifyourtechnologyhaswhat'sneededtoraiseventurecapital.

Alterna&veMethod

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•  Yourcompanyisworthwhatsomeonewill

paytoinvestinit,anditisuptoyoutoconvincethemitisworthwhatyouareasking.

•  Youcanusetheseorsimilartoolstoconvincethem.

FinalThoughts

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Problems Encountered When Valuing Entrepreneurial Firms

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Informa;on

• Risk•  Knowable•  Abletoes=mate•  Measuredsta=s=callyorwithexpertknowledge

• Uncertainty•  Unknowable•  Cannotbemeasuredsta=s=callyorwithexpertknowledge

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Lack of Cash Flow Now or in the Near Future

•  Expertopinion• Conjointanalysis• Problemisindustryspecific

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Basic Valua;on Hypothesis

•  Thevalueofanyassetisequaltothevalueofallfuturebenefitsdiscountedbacktotodayattheappropriateriskadjustedrateofreturn.•  Theproblemsare:

• Whatarethefuturebenefits• Whatistheappropriateriskadjustedrateofreturn

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Graphically this Problem is Expressed:

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

TerminalValue

ValueToday

I=RRRi=periodicrrr

Perio

dic

CashFlow

N=NumberofYearsn=numberofperiods

Whatarethefuturebenefits?

Whatistheappropriateriskadjustedrateofreturn(RRR)?

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Problems with Future Benefit Flows

• Whatarefuturebenefitflows?• Whatformorshapedotheytake?• Howlongdotheycon=nue?• Aretheygrowingordeclining• Dothey“workthewaythefirmworks?”

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Problems with Appropriate Risk Adjusted Rate of Return: Type I - Where Heuris;cs and/or Rela;ve Measurements are used •  P/E

•  P/B•  P/S•  XEBITDA

•  Easytouse(maybeappliedtonextcashflowortoasinglevalue)•  Thesearegeneralnotfirmspecifices=mates;Theyarebasedongeneralcondi=onssubjecttochangeandinaccuracy•  Theydonotexpressanyuniqueaspectsregardingthetargetfirm;theydonot“workthewaythefirmworks”

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Problems with Appropriate Risk Adjusted Rate of Return: Type II- Where Computed Risk Premiums like MCC and WACC are used

•  Costofdebt•  Costofpreferredstock•  Costofequity

•  CAPM/Fama-French•  GordonGrowth•  Build-up•  Manyothers

•  Thesemethodsabempttodeterminea“firmspecific”requiredrateofreturn(RRR)•  Thesemethodsassumeasta=ccapitalstructureandunchangingyieldcurve

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017

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Problems with firm specific opportunity assessment where cash flow is not yet present

• Comparablefirmanalysis•  Useaqualita=vescoringmethodologythatisconsistentfromfirmtofirm•  Bestprocedureisto:

•  Problem/marketandcompe==on•  Productposi=oninmarket(andintrinsicvalue)•  Businessmodel(cantheentrepreneurmakeandsellatagrossprofit)•  Managementteam•  Financialneeds,projec=onsandinvestmentstructure

CopyrightDr.GaryGibbons2017