Valdivia toa dssat-modeling_workshopamsterdam_2012-04-23

Tradeoff Analysis Model:

An Integrated Assessment Approach to Assess

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Roberto O. Valdivia

John M. Antle

Jetse J. Stoorvogel

Lieven Claessens

April, 2012

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

NUTMON

Policies

Survey

Weather

Economic

Models

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

Policies

Survey

Weather

Economic

models

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

TOA

Survey

Weather

Economic

Models

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

Leachp

Policies

Survey

Weather

Models

Economic

GIS

DSSAT

DBMS

NUTMON

Survey

Weather

Economic

Models The Tradeoff Analysis Model is a

GIS-based system designed to

integrate disciplinary data and

models to implement the Tradeoff

Analysis approach.

Tradeoff Analysis is a process that can be used to:

- Support policy decision making

- Use quantitative analysis tools to

assess the sustainability of

agricultural production systems

The Tradeoff Analysis Model:

Integrated Bio-Physical and Economic Modeling

of Agricultural Production Systems

Implementing the TOA Approach: the TOA Software

A modular approach to integrate spatial data

and disciplinary models to simulate agricultural

systems.

Soils & Climate Data Economic Data

Crop/Livestock Models Economic Model

Land Use &

ManagementEnvironmental

Process Models

Economic

Outcomes

Environmental

Outcomes

Yield

General Circulation Models (GCM)

-The IPCC and Global circulation modelers coordinated an international effort

to jointly evaluate some standard climate scenarios

-Results are posted on the IPCC Data Distribution Centre

(http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/)

-The scenarios included a 0.5 or 1.0% annual increase in greenhouse gas

emissions with or without sulphate aerosols.

TOA: CC applications

http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/



METHODOLOGY

Download data from the IPCC data Distribution Centre

IPCCConvert program reads the GCM output files (one per

climate variable), compiles the data and converts them to

Dbase files

The GCM run for a global grid

with a relative coarse resolution.

It is difficult to identify an

appropriate point.

The Climchange program reads DSSAT weather

files and changes the Data according to the

climate change scenarios

The output weather files are used in the

TOA/DSSAT to get the Inprods for each one of the

climate change scenarios.

IPCCinterpol takes the 4 nearest

points and carryout a simple

linear interpolation between

those points.

http://www.dow.wau.nl/tradeoff/home.html

base

AAGG

CCGG

EEGG

GGGG

HHGG

JJGG

NNGG

NNGS

JJGSHHGS

GGGS

EEGS

CCGS

AAGS

base

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000

Mean (Kg/Ha)

ST

D

Potato GG Model Potato GS Model

Potato yields by GCM Model: Mean vs. Standard deviation

GCMs: Precipitation vs. Temperature Change

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Temperature

Pre

cip

itati

on

AAGG CCGG EEGG HHGG AAGS CCGS EEGS HHGS NNGS NNGG GGGG GGGS JJGG JJGS

Data for La Encanada, Cajamarca, Peru

Yield vs. Altitude: Potato. La Encanada, Peru

0.0000

2000.0000

4000.0000

6000.0000

8000.0000

10000.0000

12000.0000

2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000

Altitude

Inh

ere

nt

Pro

du

cti

vit

y Observed weather

GGGG Model

AAGG Model

CCGG Model

EEGG Model

HHGG Model

JJGG Model

NNGG Model

Yield vs. Altitude: Potato. La Encanada, Peru

0.0000

2000.0000

4000.0000

6000.0000

8000.0000

10000.0000

12000.0000

2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000

Altitude

Inh

ere

nt

Pro

du

cti

vit

y Observed weather

GGGG Model

AAGG Model

CCGG Model

EEGG Model

HHGG Model

JJGG Model

NNGG Model

Includes only GG models

NNGGJJGG

HHGG

GGGG

EEGG

CCGGAAGG

BASE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000

Mean NPV US$/Ha

ST

D

No terraces GG Low Prod Terraces GG Medium Prod Terraces GG High Prod terraces GG

No Terraces GS Low Prod terraces GS Medium Prod Terraces GS High Prod Terraces GS

La Encañada, Cajamarca Peru: Mean vs. Standard deviation of NPV for the

Scenarios: No terraces & Terraces (Low, Medium & High productivity). GG and GS

Models*

* Preliminary results, Do not cite.

Machakos, Kenya: Maize price change vs. Poverty gap under GCM Models

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Poverty Gap

Maiz

e P

rice (

TO

PS

)

AAGG AAGS CCGG CCGS EEGG EEGS GGGG GGGS GGHG HHGS

JJGG JJGS NNGG NNGS BASE

Incre

ase

Base Price


0


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Poverty Gap

Maiz

e P

rice (

TO

PS

)

AAGG AAGS CCGG CCGS EEGG EEGS GGGG GGGS GGHG HHGS

JJGG JJGS NNGG NNGS BASE

Incre

ase

Base Price


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Poverty Gap

Dep

leti

on

Gap

Base Scenario MV3 CMPV3 Base Scen&Tradep37 Irrigation

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Poverty Gap

Dep

leti

on

Gap


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Poverty Gap

Dep

leti

on

Gap


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Poverty Gap

Dep

leti

on

Gap


Depletion Gap vs. Poverty Gap

For different technology scenarios In Machakos, Kenya

Observed weather

CCGS Model


E

P

Q

P1

P0

Q1Q0

E0

E1

S

D0

D1

Map0

spatial distribution

Map1


a

a’

b

b’

T

E

P

Q

P1

P0

Q1Q0

E0

E1

S

D0

D1

Map0


Map1


a

a’

b

b’

E

P

Q

P1

P0

Q1Q0

E0

E1

S

D0

D1

Map0


Map1


E

P

Q

P1

P0

Q1Q0

E0

E1

S

D0

D1

Map0


Map0


Map1


Map1


a

a’

b

b’

T

TOA Market Equilibrium Analysis

When is it needed?

Implementation:

• Execute TOA analysis for a range of prices

• Aggregate and estimate supply curve/demand curve parameters

• Solve for equilibrium

• Re-run TOA at equilibrium prices

Valdivia, R.O., J.M. Antle, and J.J. Stoorvogel, 2012. Coupling the Tradeoff Analysis Model with a

market equilibrium model to analyze economic and environmental outcomes of agricultural

production systems. Agricultural Systems, 110 (2012).

Valdivia, R.O., J.J. Stoorvogel, and J.M. Antle. 2012. Economic and Enviromental Impacts of Climate Change

and Socio-Economic Scenarios: A Case Study on a Semi-Subsistence Agriucltural Production System.

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, Volume 3 (2012)

y = -3,1797x + 0,0164

R² = 0,9522

y = 1,42x2 - 0,3596x - 0,6507

R² = 0,9931

-70,00%

-60,00%

-50,00%

-40,00%

-30,00%

-20,00%

-10,00%

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

-60,00% -50,00% -40,00% -30,00% -20,00% -10,00% 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00%

Change in Nutrient

Depletion

Change in Poverty

No Intervention -ME Policy-Technology intervention ME No Intervention - W/o ME Policy Intervention w/o ME

This presentation and related information are

available at

http://tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu

www.tradeoffs.wur.nl

Other Applications:

Comparison of EP and MD: Carbon Contract Participation in Senegal Peanut Basin (scenario: 60 kg fertilizer + 50% crop

reside incorporation)

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

62500

75000

87500

100000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Participation Rate

Carb

on

Pri

ce

rho=.6 rho=.7 rho=.8 rho=.9 rho=.95 F_EP

Antle, J.M., B. Diagana, J.J. Stoorvogel and R.O. Valdivia. 2010. “Minimum-Data Analysis of

Ecosystem Service Supply in Semi-Subsistence Agricultural Systems: Evidence from Kenya

and Senegal.” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 54:601-617.

Valdivia toa dssat-modeling_workshopamsterdam_2012-04-23

Technology

Transcript of Valdivia toa dssat-modeling_workshopamsterdam_2012-04-23