Vahé Mamikunian, Senior Analyst Lux Research Inc. March 15, 2007 Investor Enthusiasm for Nanotech...
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Transcript of Vahé Mamikunian, Senior Analyst Lux Research Inc. March 15, 2007 Investor Enthusiasm for Nanotech...
Vahé Mamikunian, Senior AnalystLux Research Inc.
March 15, 2007
Investor Enthusiasm for Nanotech Opportunities in Electronics
Agenda
• Nanotech? Opportunity?
• Breakdown of funding
• Venture capital investments
• Examples of electronics applications and impact
• Three things to keep in mind
• Q&A
4Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th FloorNew York, NY 10017 • +1 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Not just “small;” “small and different”
Not “nano by accident”
Really small
What’s nanotechnology again?
“The purposeful engineering of matter at scales of less than 100 nanometers (nm) to achieve size-dependent
properties and functions.”
5Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Electronics will dominate the $3.7 trillion in emerging nanotechnology manufactured goods in 2014
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ m
illio
ns
Manufacturing and materials Electronics and IT Healthcare and life sciences
Source: October 2004 Lux Research Report “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain”* Nanointermediates and nano-enabled products only; nanomaterials cannot be meaningfully broken down by sector.
16%
50%
34%
2004:Selective
deploymentsproliferate
2005 to 2009:Commercial breakthroughs
open markets
2010 to 2014:Nanotechnology becomes
commonplace
Agenda
• Nanotech? Opportunity?
• Breakdown of funding
• Venture capital investments
• Examples of electronics applications and impact
• Three things to keep in mind
• Q&A
7Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Nanotech funding worldwide, 2005 – $9.6 billion total
Sources: Lux Research Reference Study “The Nanotech Report, 4 th Edition”; Lux Research Report “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech Innovation”; Lux Research Report “Ranking the Nations:
Nanotech’s Shifting Global Leaders”; Lux Research Report “Making Sense of Nanotech Venture Capital”
$0.18
$3.37
$2.06
$3.96
North America EuropeAsia Rest of world
$0.78
$1.59
$4.46
$2.74
Materials ElectronicsLife sciences Other
US$ billions US$ billions
By region By sector
8Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Nanotech funding worldwide, 2005 – by sector (estimated for government funding)
Sources: Lux Research Reference Study “The Nanotech Report, 4 th Edition”; Lux Research Report “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech Innovation”; Lux Research Report “Ranking the Nations:
Nanotech’s Shifting Global Leaders”; Lux Research Report “Making Sense of Nanotech Venture Capital”
$0.40 $0.11
$2.76
$1.20
Materials ElectronicsLife science Other
$0.36
$1.32
$1.53
$1.41
Materials ElectronicsLife sciences Other
$132
$179
$165
$20
Materials ElectronicsLife science Other
US$ billions US$ billions US$ millions
Corporations: $4.47 billion Governments: $4.61 billion Venture capital: $497 million
Agenda
• Nanotech? Opportunity?
• Breakdown of funding
• Venture capital investments
• Examples of electronics applications and impact
• Three things to keep in mind
• Q&A
10Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
After examining every VC investment in nanotech companies through 2006, we found that…
To date, there have been 362 investments in 171 companies, totaling $3.08 billion invested globally (1991 to 2006)
In 2006, there were 57 investments totaling $654 million in VC funding
Average deal size increases 19% to $11.5 million in 2006 as number of deals falls 11% from 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Number of deals Value of deals
Number of deals
Value of deals
(US$ millions)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Average deal
size (US$ millions)
Average deal size, 1995 to 2006
Number and value of deals, 1995 to 2006
Data Analysis Recommendations
11Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Electronics and ITHealthcare and life sciencesManufacturing and materials Nanotools
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E
Number of deals
Number of nanotech VC deals by sector, 1995 to 2006
Average deal size by sector, 1995 to 2006
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16$18
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E
Average deal size
(US$ millions)
Electronics and ITHealthcare and life sciencesManufacturing and materials Nanotools
Breaking down investment by sector, Electronics & IT trumps other sectors on number of deals and average deal value
Electronics & IT leads with 21 deals totaling $243 million in 2006, for an average deal value of $15.8 million
Healthcare & life sciences follows with 15 deals worth $124 million in 2006, with an average deal value of $10.6 million
Manufacturing & materials ties with $122 million over 18 deals in 2006, with an average deal size of $8.7 million
Data Analysis Recommendations
Agenda
• Nanotech? Opportunity?
• Breakdown of funding
• Venture capital investments
• Examples of electronics applications and impact
• Three things to keep in mind
• Q&A
13Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Charting nanotech’s visible transformation
Unsungheroes
Gee-whiznanoproducts
Secretweapons
Iconicbreakthroughs
Low
High
Awareness of
application
Incremental Step change
Nature of impact
14Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Emerging nanoelectronics: some examples
Unsungheroes
Gee-whiznanoproducts
Secretweapons
Iconicbreakthroughs
Low
High
Awareness of
application
Incremental Step change
Nature of impact
Conductive
adhesive filler
Non-conductive adhesive
filler/Underfill additive
Reactive foil
Heat transfer
materials
Flexible
electronics Biologically self-
assembled nanoelectronics
CNT
displays
CNT memory
and logic
CNT sensors
Fullerene solar cells
Fullerene transistors and memory devices
Fullerene
photodetectors
15Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Reactive foil for room temperature soldering
What it does: Room temperature fluxless
soldering of heat sinks to IC packages or
component mounting; component mounting
onto printed circuit boards
How it works: A controlled self-propagating
exothermic reaction – initiated by a thermal or
electric stimulus – melts and bonds the solder
between two components
Key nanotech enabler: Alternating nano-
scale layers of nickel and aluminum
Who’s developing it:
– Reactive NanoTechnologies (RNT)
Stage of development: On the market
Heat sink
Solder
Solder
Packaging Integrated circuit
Reactive foil
16Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Heat transfer materials
What it does: Carbon nanotubes
increase the surface contact area
between the heat sink and IC by up
to 20 times (from 2% to 40%)
offering 4 times better thermal
performance
How it works: Multi-walled carbon
nanotubes vertically grown between the heat sink and the IC increase contact surface and facilitate thermal conduction from the IC to the heat sink
Key nanotech enabler: Multi-walled carbon nanotubes
Who’s developing it:
– Nanoconduction, Fujitsu
Heat sink
Packaging Integrated circuit
Current contact area = ~2%
MWCNT contact area = ~40%
Multi-walled carbon nanotubes
17Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Nanotube enabled memory or logic chips
What it does: Non-volatile memory with
low power consumption and high density
How it works: Van der Waals forces hold
nanotubes down representing an “On” state
Key nanotech enabler: Carbon nanotube
solution etched using current CMOS
technology
Who’s developing it:
– Nantero and LSI Logic (On Semiconductor)
18Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Flexible electronics
What it does: Conformable electronics
circuitry or displays
How it works: Conductive ink used
to print micro circuitry on polymer
surface; thin film transistor circuitry
transferred to a polymer film
Key nanotech enabler: Conductive
nanoparticles (e.g. gold or silver)
dispersed in ink solution; carbon nanotube thin film transistors;
Who’s developing it: Epson, Plastic Logic, Nanosys, Nano-Proprietary, NTera, NanoHorizons, Nanometrix,
19Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Self-assembled nanoelectronics
Case study: Cambrios
Based on Angie Belcher’s(MIT) research
Uses genetically modified virusesto deposit perfect, inorganicnanoscale structures
Applications in manufacturingelectronics components – i.e.nanofilms (using bifunctional agents)and nanowires of precise length
Combined with self-assembling capabilities, creates platform for “wet,” bottom-up IC/sensor manufacturing
Potential technology platform to succeed etched silicon
Massive long-term impact on chipmakers (Intel, TI, TSMC), capital equipment makers (Applied Materials, ASML), and materials suppliers (MEMC, ATMI)
20Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Protein-based memory
Porphyrins - redox reactions
Bacteriorhodopsin - light reaction
Zettacore (Levine)
UConn (Birge)
Agenda
• Nanotech? Opportunity?
• Breakdown of funding
• Venture capital investments
• Examples of electronics applications and impact
• Three things to keep in mind
• Q&A
22Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Three critical aspects to successfully commercialize nanotech innovations
Environmental, health and safety
Intellectual property
Partnerships
23Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Firms need a comprehensive plan for nanotech EHS
Real Risks
Establish processes to control real risks during manufacture, use, and end-of-life
Regulations
Use realistic projections
to plan for regulations
Perceptual Risks
Communicate with the public, press, and
NGOs to prevent perceptual risks
24Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Source: June 2006 Lux Research Report “Hidden Opportunities in Nanotech IP”White space indicates freedom to operate; challenge gauges how likes patents in the area are to conflict
Nanomaterial IP is dense and entangled
Lux Research looked at the universe of 4,986 nanotechnology patents covering 102,651 claims, and then did an in-depth claim-by-claim analysis of eight nanomaterial platforms covering 2,646 patents and 49,807 claims.
It’s messy – detailed analysis required for each particle and application However, judicious firms can find freedom to operate
General
Structural materials
Energy
Optics
Electronics
Healthcare/ cosmetics
Other
Platformoverall
Fullerenes
Carbon
nanotubes
Dendrimers
Quantum dots
Nanowires
Low white space
Challenge likely
High white space
Challenge unlikelyNo patents
Metal
nanoparticles
Ceramic
nanoparticles
Aerogels
25Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
84% of corporations* tap start-ups for nanotech innovation
“We have made huge investments in start-ups – up to $10 million in one case – to guarantee access to the innovations and materials that flow
out of them. We systematically screen for interesting technologies and look for external sources of materials that can help us shorten time to market.”
(Chemicals company)
*Corporations in industries somewhat or highly-impacted by nanotech
47%
69%
84%
16%
13%
44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
None
Others
Corporations
Publicagencies
Academics
Start-ups
“Do you work with these external organizations as part of your nanotech
efforts?”
n=35
Source: Lux Research, “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech Innovation”
26Lux Research Inc. • 140 East 45th Street, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • 888-589-7373 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you / Discussion
Vahé Mamikunian
Analyst
+1 415 486 2162
www.luxresearchinc.com